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Latest On Twins’ Kyle Gibson

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SATURDAY: Extension talks are off for the time being, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who tweets that the Twins and Gibson didn’t come close to a deal during their discussions.

FRIDAY: The Twins and right-hander Kyle Gibson are discussing an extension that would keep him in Minnesota beyond the current season, Gibson himself revealed to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Gibson is set to become a free agent after the 2019 campaign, but Miller notes that agent Randy Rowley has been in Ft. Myers for the past few days and met with the Twins to discuss a deal. Gibson is already earning $8.125MM this season after avoiding arbitration earlier in the winter.

“It’s really just trying to figure out what makes sense for the Twins and if it is something they want to do as well,” Gibson told Miller, adding that Minneapolis is “definitely” somewhere he wants to be beyond the 2019 season.

A first-round pick by the Twins back in 2009, Gibson’s path to the Majors was slowed by Tommy John surgery. He’s been a mainstay in Minnesota’s rotation since 2014, however, and while he struggled in both 2016-17, Gibson enjoyed easily the best season of his career in 2018. Last year, the Mizzou product totaled a career-high 196 2/3 innings while registering a 3.62 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9 and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate. Gibson upped the use of his slider a bit while throwing his changeup less often and saw his swinging-strike rate increase from its career mark of 9.8 percent to 11.5 percent.

If the two sides can ultimately strike a deal, Gibson would become the third starting pitcher to forgo free agency in favor of a pre-season extension, joining Reds right-hander Sonny Gray (three years, $30.5MM) and Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas (four years, $68MM). Gibson’s situation isn’t a direct parallel with either of those righties, however. He’s two years older than Gray but also coming off a demonstrably better season, whereas Mikolas is a year younger and coming off a surprisingly dominant season in his return to the big leagues after a three-year run in Japan.

The Twins likely have some added incentive to try to broker an agreement, as in addition to Gibson, they’ll see right-handers Michael Pineda and Jake Odorizzi become free agents following the 2019 season. Jose Berrios, who rejected an extension overture earlier this spring, is the only established starter that Minnesota controls beyond the 2019 season. Fifth starter Martin Perez has a club option on the one-year contract he signed this winter, though he’ll need to reestablish himself as a viable big league arm in order for that to become a consideration.

Twins Option Tyler Duffey, Reassign Chase De Jong

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The Twins optioned reliever Tyler Duffey to Triple-A this morning, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News in Minneapolis (via Twitter). The Twins confirmed the move via a press release.

Chase De Jong is also on the move, as the 6’4″ righty has been reassigned to minor league camp. De Jong’s reassignment cuts the Twins’ number of pitchers in camp down to 21. They have 44 players remaining in camp overall, 13 of whom are of the non-roster invitee variety.

Duffey, 28, spent parts of the last four seasons with the big league club, most notably as a starter in 2016 when he took the hill 26 times for a 9-12 record and a 6.43 ERA (4.73 FIP) across 133 frames. A move to the bullpen in 2017 provided a boost to his K-rate as he logged 8.5 K/9 versus his 7.7 K/9 mark as a starter in 2016, but he wasn’t able to repeat those numbers in 2018. Duffey has little left to prove at Triple-A as he once again put together a strong year with the Rochester Red Wings, striking out 9.61 batters per nine while mostly working as a long man, logging 59 innings in only 31 appearances out of the pen. A 2.90 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.35 xFIP looks good – but those results did not translate to Target Field where he accumulated -0.2 WAR while marking a 7.20 ERA (5.36 FIP, 4.29 xFIP) in 25 innings. Though he’ll begin the season back at Rochester, there’s a decent chance Duffey returns at some point to the Twins bullpen in 2019.

De Jong, 25, made four starts in his first season with Minnesota last year, going 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA (4.92 FIP). The former 2nd round draft selection of the Blue Jays also saw time in the Dodgers and Mariners organizations before coming to Minnesota in the Zach Duke deal last July. He is likely ticketed to return to Triple-A to start the year after a rough spring in which he surrendered 12 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings of work. Both he and Duffey have one option year remaining, though De Jong faces a longer return road to the majors, as he is not currently on the Twins 40-man roster.

Jose Berrios Declined Extension Offer From Twins

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The Twins have already extended a pair of young players this winter, inking both Max Kepler (five years, $35MM) and Jorge Polanco (five years, $25.75MM) to long-term deals, and they at least made an attempt to hammer out a long-term arrangement with Jose Berrios as well. The young righty tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that he and his representatives at Wasserman turned away an extension offer this winter.

Berrios, however, didn’t rule out signing a contract that would extend his stay in Minnesota — perhaps even before Opening Day 2019. “I have to manage my business, too,” said the 24-year-old. “…We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year.”

Miller lists the recent extensions signed by Aaron Nola (four years, $45MM) and Luis Severino (four years, $40MM) as data points, though it’s not clear that Berrios’ camp is seeking that type of guarantee. Furthermore, Severino was a Super Two player when he signed that deal, and Nola was had already reached three years of MLB service. Both players were already eligible for arbitration and were in line for salaries of at least $4.4MM for the coming season, whereas Berrios has two years, 44 days of MLB service and won’t be eligible for arbitration until next winter. As such, signing a comparable contract to either Nola or Severino would set a new precedent for the two-to-three service class.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored when looking at a potential extension for the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland, Berrios finds himself among a group of quality players with two-plus years of service who still seem likely to fall shy of record-setting money. Corey Kluber’s $38.5MM extension, signed on the heels of a Cy Young season, is the largest ever for a non-Super-Two pitcher with between two and three years of MLB service. Berrios’ case, clearly, isn’t as strong; historically speaking, he’s more in line with a large group of starters who signed in the realm of $30MM over five years (though many of those contracts are close to a decade old). It’s worth emphasizing, of course, that Berrios’ asking price and the parameters put forth by the Twins earlier this winter aren’t known.

Berrios had an awful rookie campaign as a 22-year-old but has since settled in as very solid big league starter — one whose raw stuff and former prospect pedigree create optimism that there’s still a fair bit of improvement left in the tank. Dating back to 2017, the Puerto Rican-born righty has worked to a 3.86 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in 338 innings. He’ll take the hill for Minnesota in his first career Opening Day start this season as the Twins hope the long touted right-hander can take another step forward and keep them in competition for a division title in the AL Central.

If Berrios is able to do that, he’ll vault himself into another tier of earning potential. At that point, he’d line up more comparably with Nola’s $45MM guarantee or the $51MM guarantee attained by the Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez, the latter of which stands out as the largest deal ever promised to a pitcher with between three and four years of MLB service (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). For the time being, Miller’s colleague La Velle E. Neal III reports (via Twitter) that Berrios agreed to a one-year contract worth $620K for the upcoming season — his final pre-arbitration salary before at least entering the arb process next winter. Minnesota controls Berrios through the 2022 campaign.

Central Notes: Fulmer, Wood, M. Perez

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Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters from 2016-18, but his velocity has been anything but imposing early in 2019. As has been the case throughout the spring, Fulmer’s fastball sat in the 88 to 92 mph range during a 44-pitch outing Saturday, leading Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press to note that the soon-to-be 26-year-old “didn’t look right.” The Tigers aren’t confident Fulmer’s velocity will return, writes Fenech, which is an eyebrow-raising observation given that he’s one of the rebuilding team’s most valuable players and trade chips. But it’s worth noting Fulmer’s still in the early stages of his comeback from right knee surgery, and he and pitching coach Rick Anderson expressed confidence Saturday that his velocity will return, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News relays. If so, the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year figures to stand a far better chance of rebounding from a disappointing, injury-shortened 2017 – a 132 1/3-inning campaign in which he logged career-worst numbers (4.69 ERA/4.52 FIP with 7.48 K/9 and 3.13 BB/9).

More on a couple other hurlers from the majors’ Central divisions…

  • While Fulmer’s velocity has gone in the wrong direction this spring, the uptick Twins southpaw Martin Perez has experienced has impressed scouts, Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes (subscription required). As a member of the Rangers from 2012-18, with whom he had an unspectacular tenure, Perez’s average fastball clocked in at 93.5 mph. This spring, though, it has consistently reached the mid- to upper 90s – including across four shutout innings against the Pirates on Saturday. The increase may be attributable to a mechanical change the Twins made with Perez, whom they signed to a one-year, $4MM guarantee over the winter. The Twins have pushed Perez to incorporate his hips more into his delivery, Hayes details, and he has taken their advice. “All in from Day One,” assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told Hayes. “He’s a joy to be around. One of the hardest workers we have.” If Perez’s velo gains stick, he could end up as a steal for the Twins, and may finally begin delivering on the hype he had during his days as a prospect.
  • Reds left-hander Alex Wood, who has been dealing with back issues over the past couple weeks, suffered a setback after throwing a simulated game Friday, according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Wood hasn’t pitched in a Cactus League game since Feb. 25, and it could be at least another week before he makes an appearance, Nightengale suggests. Although Bell said Wood’s injury isn’t “a major concern,” the skipper’s nonetheless unsure whether the winter acquisition will be ready for the start of the season.  Having picked Wood up in a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, the Reds are counting on the 28-year-old to serve as one of the anchors in what they hope will be a vastly improved rotation.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/9/19

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Rounding up the latest in minor moves from around the game…

  • Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Twins have signed IF/OF Jordany Valdespin to a minor-league deal. Valdespin, 31, had a memorable mid-summer run for the Mets in 2012, smacking a series of late-game, go-ahead homers for the team in his rookie MLB season. Jordany’s career has been in a bit of tailspin since: the Domincan-born utilityman has managed just a .216/.271/.369 (79 wRC+, 0.1 career fWAR) line in 467 career PA over four seasons with New York and Miami. Valdespin spent all of 2017 in the Mexican League before tallying a full-season’s worth of AB’s for Long Island of the independent Atlantic League in 2018. He performed well at both stops, and seemed to again flash the power jolt that had tapered off after his electrifying debut. The lefty’s seen time at five major league positions during his MLB tenure, including a number of starts at both shortstop and center field, so an eventual utility role isn’t completely out of the question.

Miguel Sano To Miss Start Of Season

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Twins third baseman Miguel Sano will not be prepared for Opening Day and could miss the first month of the season, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told reporters including Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter) and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link).

A cut on Sano’s foot has kept him out of action throughout camp. That injury, sustained during a celebration of a Dominican Winter League title, required a second debridement procedure to clean up the wound.

Clearly, this is not how the organization expected things to proceed when Sano showed up to camp in noticeably excellent shape. The hope then was that the cut would heal up quickly, allowing him to get back to work in search of redemption following a miserable 2018 season.

Sano, who’s earning $2.65MM in the first of three seasons of arbitration eligibility, has at times seemed primed to be one of the game’s best sluggers and is still a month shy of his 26th birthday. Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued his career, though, and he has yet to reach five hundred plate appearances in a single MLB season.

The Twins recently inked Marwin Gonzalez to function as a heavily-used utility player. He’ll presumably be the top option at the hot corner to begin his tenure in Minnesota. The fascinating Willians Astudillo could also see an expanded role to open the year.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

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The Astros haven’t been engaged on Dallas Keuchel in recent weeks, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes in his latest look at the free-agent left-hander’s apparently stagnant market (subscription required). The Phillies, he adds, still have interest only in a “very” short-term deal, as was reported last week. Meanwhile, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that unless Keuchel or free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is suddenly willing to take a one-year deal, the Twins aren’t likely to sign either pitcher three weeks into Spring Training. As for the Braves, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman wrote late last week that spring ailments for Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman haven’t been deemed concerning enough for Atlanta to pursue Keuchel.

It’s hardly an encouraging set of updates for either free agent, particularly Keuchel, whom Olney suggests is being harmed to an extent by the fact that he doesn’t fit today’s mold of hard throwers that permeate the game. Olney notes that Keuchel’s average fastball (89.3 mph) ranked 55th of 57 starters who qualified for the ERA title in 2018.

While perhaps some teams would prefer harder-throwing options, that stat doesn’t seem especially concerning when presented with further context. Keuchel’s average fastball last season was actually improved over a pair of seasons in which he was slowed by back and neck injuries in 2016-17. In fact, in Keuchel’s Cy Young-winning 2015 season, he averaged just 89.6 mph on his heater, so it’d be puzzling to see significant level of concern over that fastball velocity. Furthermore, a look at the names around Keuchel near the bottom of the fastball velocity leaderboard includes quality arms such as Marco Gonzales, Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, ranked only 43rd among those 57 qualified starters at 90.8 mph, and he secured a six-year contract that promises him $140MM. That deal came at a younger age and on the heels of a better season, clearly, but the contract still runs counter to the idea that teams will only pay for premium velocity.

None of that is to say that Keuchel isn’t without red flags, of course. The lefty’s strikeout percentage dipped from 21.4 percent in 2017 to 17.5 percent in 2018 (7.7 K/9 vs. 6.7), and his swinging-strike rate fell from 10.9 percent to 8.3 percent. His ground-ball rate of 53.7 percent, while well north of the league average, also represented a substantial step back from 2017’s 66.8 percent mark and from his overall career mark of 58.8 percent. All of that surely sets off some alarms for interested teams, but Keuchel was nevertheless a quality starter in 2018, as has been the case for several years. Both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference suggest he’s been worth 18 wins above replacement over the past five seasons — including a combined six or more WAR over his past two campaigns.

It’s not a stretch to suggest that virtually any team in baseball would be improved by swapping out Keuchel for its current weakest starter, but as is always the case in free agency, the financial element plays a significant role. It seems quite likely that some clubs that had interest in Keuchel and Kimbrel early this winter balked at the duo’s reported nine-figure asking prices and went on to spend their money elsewhere. Now, even if those asking prices have come down, some previously interested teams may simply not have ownership permission to spend significant dollars on another free agent. Both pitchers also rejected qualifying offers, meaning a team signing either former All-Star would be subject to the forfeiture of at least one draft pick (and potentially some international bonus pool space).

It’ll be worth keeping an eye on injuries to prominent pitchers throughout the league in the coming days to see if a new window opens. Clayton Kershaw has been battling a shoulder issue, for instance. The Braves, as previously mentioned, have multiple starters who have been dealing with injuries thus far in camp. The Cardinals may be without Carlos Martinez to open the season. Further injuries will surely arise elsewhere, although the longer Keuchel and Kimbrel wait, the more questionable it is whether either will be ready to pitch in a big league game come Opening Day.

Twins Acquire International Bonus Money From Orioles

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The Twins have acquired $750K in international bonus pool space from the Orioles for right-hander Xavier Moore, per Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press. This is the second trade of the day involving Moore, whom the Twins acquired from the Rangers a couple hours ago for outfielder Zack Granite.

The Orioles have now traded away international spending room in back-to-back weekends, having previously sent an undisclosed amount to the Rangers for righty David Lebron last Sunday. It’s unexpected on the surface, as Baltimore has recently vowed to spend more internationally after long ignoring the foreign market under owner Peter Angelos. His sons are now at the helm of the team, and they’ve brought in Mike Elias to replace previous general manager Dan Duquette, but the act of parting with international money for relatively unexciting minor leaguers harks back to the prior regime.

Of course, even after these deals, the Orioles continue to lead the majors in international spending capacity. Thus, they could see these trades as easy ways to pick up minor league talent they like while continuing to hold the league’s largest bonus pool. It’s unclear how much the Orioles have left at the moment, but they had $6MM remaining – far more than the second-place Dodgers ($1.4MM) – before the Lebron and Moore acquisitions. With that in mind, the Orioles could still be in on Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez, whom they’ve scouted since he became free to sign with a major league team Feb. 5.

In Moore, the Twins are quickly bidding adieu to a 20-year-old who struggled at the lower levels of the Rangers’ system a season ago. By flipping him, the Twins are adding a notable amount to their bonus pool, as they had just under $80K remaining as of Feb. 8. Minnesota entered the current international market with upward of $6MM to play with, but it has since gone on a spending spree, with outfielder Misael Urbina ($2.75MM) being its most expensive pickup.

Rangers Acquire Zack Granite

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The Rangers have acquired outfielder Zack Granite from the Twins for minor league pitcher Xavier Moore and cash, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune tweets. Texas has placed outfielder Scott Heineman on the 60-day injured list to create 40-man room for Granite, per a team announcement.

The 26-year-old Granite had been in limbo in Minnesota since Feb. 25, when the club designated him for assignment after signing free agent Marwin Gonzalez. Granite had been a member of the Twins since they used a 14th-round pick on him in 2013. The fleet-of-foot Granite was successful at times during his tenure with the Minnesota organization, including during a 56-steal season with its Double-A affiliate in 2016 and an outstanding offensive campaign (.336/.392/.475 in 313 plate appearances) with its Triple-A team in 2017.

Unfortunately, last season was an injury-shortened nightmare for Granite, which helped seal his fate with the Twins. The lefty batted a horrid .211/.282/.245 in 263 attempts at the Triple-A level and wasn’t much better in his first major league action, as he slashed .237/.321/.290 in 107 tries. To Granite’s credit, though, he walked (12) more than he struck out (nine) during his brief run in the majors last year, and he has consistently managed low K numbers in the minors. However, he hasn’t shown much power at any level.

With a minor league option remaining, Granite figures to serve as depth for Texas, which is rebuilding and in position to use a 40-man spot on a player of his ilk. In doing so, the Rangers will wave goodbye to Moore, whom they selected in the 16th round of the 2017 draft. Now 20 years old, the right-handed Moore has pitched exclusively in the low minors in his short pro career. Moore divided last season between the low-A and rookie levels, where he combined to throw 18 2/3 innings and log a 5.30 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9.

Starting Pitching Notes: Fernandez, Kershaw, Buehler, deGrom, Pineda

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The late Jose Fernandez would have been eligible for free agency this offseason, a concept The Athletic’s Jayson Stark explores (subscription required) in an outstanding remembrance of the former Marlins ace.  Fernandez emerged as perhaps the top young pitcher in all of baseball over 471 1/3 innings with Miami from 2013-16, and he would’ve reached free agency as a 26-year-old, the same age as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this winter.  Assuming Fernandez had continued his dominant pace, agent Scott Boras had visions of a $400MM deal for his client.  Miami had already offered to sign Fernandez to an extension prior to the 2015 season, and even though Fernandez was coming off Tommy John surgery, he rejected that $40.7MM in guaranteed money to bet on himself — a sign of the self-confidence that had both positive and negative effects on Fernandez throughout his life.  Stark’s piece includes comments from a wide range of former teammates, coaches, and Marlins personnel about their memories of the star right-hander, who had already become a Miami baseball icon at the time of his tragic passing on September 25, 2016.

Some items from around the starting pitching scene…

  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided an update on Clayton Kershaw to reporters (including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick), saying that Kershaw had a five-minute game of catch for the second straight day.  “Clayton said he let it go about 80 percent and he felt good, he felt strong,” Roberts said.  “Tomorrow we’re going to stretch him out some more as far as length and intensity. In talking to him today, we’re pretty encouraged.”  Kershaw was shut down last week due to shoulder soreness, and the Dodgers will continue to take it slow with their ace southpaw.
  • The Dodgers are taking a similar path with Walker Buehler, who has only been throwing on flat ground since tossing a single bullpen session during the first week of spring camp.  There isn’t anything physically wrong with the young righty, Roberts said, as Buehler is simply being “slow-played” in his ramp-up to the 2019 season as a nod to his increased workload last year.  Between the minors, the MLB regular season, and the postseason, Buehler tossed 177 innings in 2018.  It was a vast increase for a pitcher in just his third pro season, especially considering Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and tossed only 98 total innings in 2017.
  • There hasn’t been much reported progress in contract talks between the Mets and Jacob deGrom, and according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, “the word circulating is specifically [Mets owner] Fred Wilpon” has some hesitation about extending the right-hander.  As Sherman points out, if the elder Wilpon has concerns, they wouldn’t be unjustified — deGrom turns 31 in June, has undergone a Tommy John surgery in his past, and is already controlled through the 2020 season.  (Plus, the Mets have been burned on several pricey contracts in recent years.)  Sherman proposes a possible extension that could satisfy both sides; a four-year deal covering the 2020-23 seasons for $124MM in guaranteed money, plus a vesting option for 2024 that pays deGrom another $10MM in a buyout, and up to $31MM for 2024 if the option vests.
  • Michael Pineda tossed two scoreless innings and threw 18 of his 26 pitches for strikes in an outing against the Red Sox today, his first time facing MLB hitters since July 5, 2017.  He threw between 93-95mph, matching his old fastball speed, though Pineda told The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and other media that “I’m not focused on the velocity.  My goal is to be healthy and get some focus and be back. And be Michael Pineda, back like he used to be.”  Pineda underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017, and his hopes of a return in 2018 were dashed after he suffered a torn meniscus.  After signing a two-year, $10MM deal with the Twins in the 2017-18 offseason, Pineda is making positive steps towards being a contributor for Minnesota this year.
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