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Merrifield Or Kingery?

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Scott Kingery and Whit Merrifield aren’t exactly at the same place in their careers.

Merrifield, 31, led his team in bWAR last season and is considered by many as the best player on their rebuilding club. He’s a late-bloomer, but on the wrong side of thirty nonetheless, with 3.5 seasons under his belt as an above-average player. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote this of Merrifield: “The 31-year-old is one of the better all-around veteran assets in the game, considering his ability to play multiple positions, his inexpensive contract that could extend through the 2023 season, and his three consecutive seasons of strong production.” He boasts a career batting line of .296/.344/.445, good for 109 wRC+.

Kingery, 26, disappointed in a major way in his first shot at the big leagues, but he rebounded last year with an honest effort as a multi-positional asset for the contending Phillies. In just his age-25 season, Kingery posted a line of .258/.315/.474 across 500 plate appearances while socking 19 long balls. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently wrote this: “Kingery had some ups and downs in his second season in the bigs, but ultimately made huge strides and turned in a league-average offensive season.” To this point, Kingery’s career line stands at just .242/.291/.407 – but the former 2nd round pick produced a 101 wRC+ last season. At a similar age, Merrifield was splitting his time between Double and Triple A.

Financially-speaking, both are signed to long-term deals. Because Merrifield debuted on the older side, he signed a very team-friendly deal through potentially his age-34 season. He’ll make $5MM in 2020, $6.75MM in 2021, just $2.75MM in 2022, and the Royals hold a team option for $10.5MM in 2023. Many thought Merrifield would be traded to a contending team this winter, but the Royals love him, and given his contract, there’s no particular rush to move him. By not moving him, they’re missing out on the opportunity to add young talent to the organization, but Merrifield is producing now, and his story is one that might give many Kansas City farmhands hope.

Kingery is signed even longer. The Phillies will pay him $1.75MM in 2020 (in theory), $4.25MM in 2021, $6.25MM in 2022, and $8.25MM in 2023. Philadelphia also holds three team options: $13MM in 2024, $14MM in 2025, and $15MM in 2026.

Kingery’s deal brings a lot more upside, with Merrifield likely brings more near-term value. Given the current standings of the Phillies and Royals, an argument could be made that a straight-up swap of the two multi-positional right-handers makes a lot of sense. Kingery has yet to prove that he can produce a season like Merrfield’s 5.2 bWAR effort in 2018, but he’s also five years younger and signed for a longer period. Their deals, meanwhile, converge in 2023, where a 34-year-old Merrifield would be making more on a one-year deal than the 29-year-old Kingery, who at that point will have three relatively reasonable team options remaining.

Both players boast well-rounded games, with Kingery bringing a bit more pop potential, while Merrifield has superior bat skills. Kingery has swiped 25 bases while only being caught 7 times over his two seasons, while Merrifield led the AL in stolen bases in both 2017 and 2018. Last year, Merrifield’s volume and efficiency fell off a bit as he swiped just 20 bases in 30 chances. Both players have capably moved around the diamond, both infield and outfield. The gap between Merrifield’s 110 wRC+ last season and Kingery’s 101 wRC+ isn’t as great as the perceived talent gap between the two players. If nothing else, assume some age-related regression for Merrifield, while Kingery develops further as he grows into his prime, and don’t these two inch just a little closer?

Merrifield is the quick-trigger choice, but given a comprehensive look at both players, an argument can be made that Kingery is the better asset. All in, which would you prefer to have on your team: Merrifield’s proven qualities or Kingery’s rising upside? Put another way, who has the better asset: the Royals or Phillies?

(Link for app users)

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles kept pretty quiet again this winter. They added a couple veteran stopgaps to temper the timelines of their young players. They also lost two Baltimore mainstays: Dylan Bundy and Mark Trumbo – both of whom had been with the big league club since 2016. Chris Davis and Mychal Givens are the only players left on the roster who have seen postseason action in an Orioles’ uniform.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Orioles are an interesting team from a short-season perspective. They don’t have the depth to compete over a full slate of 162 ballgames, but in some bizarro post-coronavirus tournament? They’re still probably not competitors – but they could be peskier than most suspect. Then again, that goes for all potential cellar-dwellers.

Specific to the Orioles, GM Mike Elias made clear early in the offseason what his priority number one would be: pitching depth. Elias found himself repeatedly scouring other organizations in 2019 for low-cost pitching to stanch the bleeding, and he didn’t want the O’s to be in that position again. Rushing minor-league talent to fill the void is not a palatable option for Elias. His offseason focus wasn’t so much about building a talent base in the majors as it was about protecting the future talent from the ill effects of hurried development. In that very-limited scope, Elias’ plan is sound. So while fans might not get goose bumps over the Orioles’ new arms, in this context, Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc are legitimate gets.

Milone has pitched in the majors in every season since 2011, and he very well might lead the majors in earned travel miles over that span. After making his debut with the Nationals, Milone pitched for the A’s for 2 1/2 years and Twins for 2 1/2 years, ably filling a rotation slot with a 4.14 ERA/4.36 FIP. 2017 was less kind as he produced lackluster results with the Brewers and Mets before taking a second turn with the Nats in 2018. Last season, however, Milone turned back the clock a tad, providing 111 2/3 innings of 4.76 ERA/5.00 FIP ball for the Mariners. Similar production would suit the Orioles’ needs just fine in 2020, especially under the conditions of a shortened season. It’s pretty darn close to a lateral move from, say, Aaron Brooks, one of last season’s stopgaps, but important nonetheless for the pitching-poor Orioles.

LeBlanc has a longer track record, but of similar shape and sound to Milone’s career. LeBlanc started his career with the Padres from 2008 to 2011. From there he went to the Marlins to the Astros, before boomeranging in 2014 from the Angels to the Yankees and back to the Angels again in the span of the 2014 season. He missed all of 2015, rehabbed with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A team in 2016 before reappearing in the majors for the Mariners and Pirates. “Boomerang” LeBlanc returned to the Mariners in 2018, where he enjoyed a semblance of stability for a pair of seasons, going 15-12 with a 4.57 ERA/4.80 FIP across 283 1/3 innings.

No, LeBlanc, 35, and Milone, 33, aren’t the same pitcher, but you’d be forgiven for getting them confused. 4.46 ERA to 4.47 ERA, 4.68 FIP to 4.58 FIP, 6.6 K/9 to 6.7 K/9. Both are among the absolute softest-tossers in the league, with Milone’s fastball averaging 87.1 mph, while LeBlanc, according to Statcast, has a “heater” that averages 86.3 mph (though he only throws it 5.7% of the time). Here’s a fun fact: LeBlanc appears in the 0th percentile for fastball velocity. Call it a case of baseball rubbernecking, but I personally would love to see a rotation with Milone, LeBlanc, and John Means, whose 91.7 mph fastball may look downright Johnsonian in comparison.

Whether either or both makes the team, let alone the rotation, is still very much in doubt (before the coronavirus craziness, MASN’s Roch Kubatko thought LeBlanc a lock to make the roster). Fellow newcomer Kohl Stewart might be a safer bet to line up behind Means, Alex Cobb and Asher Wojciechowski – though not because of his track record. Stewart comes from sturdier prospect stock as the fourth overall pick of the 2013 draft, and he’s still just 25-years-old. He arrives in Baltimore with just 62 big league innings and a matching 4.79 ERA/FIP.

On paper, Stewart is a fine low-cost gamble for a team like the Orioles, but whether or not he’s actually worth a look will depend on what the Orioles see in him that the Twins did not. If it’s just a paper gambit, there’s not a ton in Stewart’s recent history to get all that excited about – not with just 1.31 K/BB and a long list of injuries that have sapped him of his once-strong potential. But if they can improve his pitch sequencing, there may still exist some version of top-prospect Stewart to unearth. On the whole, these arms  (Milone, LeBlanc, Stewart) were brought in specifically to keep younger arms out of the fire, but if/when the O’s tire of this approach, they have a number of hurlers in the upper minors to keep on your rookie radar.

On the offensive end, the most obvious plus from the 2019 season hit the most worrying snag possible: Trey Mancini doesn’t expect to play baseball in 2020, not after a Stage III Colon Cancer diagnosis. Read his piece in the Players’ Tribune, however, and you’ll be more encouraged about Baltimore baseball than before. Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 with 35 home runs, 106 runs and 97 RBIs in 2019. His 3.5 bWAR/3.6 fWAR (132 wRC+) places him in legitimate All-Star territory, even if that distinction was bestowed upon Means in 2019. If there’s baseball in 2020, Mancini will be missed.

But if Mancini can find the silver lining in his diagnosis, we can find it for the on-field Orioles. Playing time is a limited commodity – more so in 2020 than usual – and Mancini’s absence means ample opportunities for other Orioles to establish their credibility. Our own George Miller wrote about Anthony Santander as a potential breakout candidate, and he might be the most direct beneficiary of Mancini’s absence. But waiver claims like Pat Valaika or Andrew Velazquez could see the trickle down effect while coming off the bench. Velazquez, in particular, impressed manager Brandon Hyde and his staff this spring. DJ Stewart is another candidate to see time keeping Mancini’s spot warm, along with Dwight Smith Jr., Cedric Mullins, Ryan McKenna or Yusniel Diaz.

Ryan Mountcastle could also eventually make the big league club and see time either at first, third, DH, or the outfield. Mountcastle is in the conversation as the best power hitter in the Orioles’ system, and he might be the first of a new wave of Orioles’ prospects to get excited about. He just needs a defensive position.

On the dirt, the Orioles should feature a mostly new middle infield. Richie Martin and Jonathan Villar saw the most time up the middle in 2019. Villar finds himself in a Marlins’ uniform these days, while Martin will have to earn his keep to stay on the major league roster. Last year’s Rule 5 selection could use seasoning time in the minors, though he will compete for a roster spot. Moving on from Villar was somewhat surprising, even if his price tag was getting a little high ($8.2MM in 2020). It’s not as if the Orioles have a ton of financial commitments on the roster, and he’d been a rare plus on the offensive end (107 wRC+). Still, he has just one season left of control, and there might not have been much action on the trade market. Elias did well to at least get something in return for Villar, though Easton, a 23-year-old 14th-round draft pick from 2019, does feel like a light return.

In their stead, Jose Iglesias and Hanser Alberto figure to get most of the playing time up the middle. Iglesias brings a steady glove and consistent major league production to a lineup sorely lacking in veteran experience. But he’s also a textbook second division starter, never having produced more than 2.5 bWAR in a single season, and just as often coming up shy of the 2.0 bWAR mark. Still, his glove should help.

Alberto hit .305/.329/.422 last season, a breakout of sorts of the versatile infielder. Parts of three previous seasons with the Rangers produced a mere .192/.210/.231 line. Even the current version of Alberto isn’t a clear plus on that end (96 wRC+), not with a 2.9% BB%, even if he does put the ball in play (9.1% K%).

Alberto and Iglesias don’t have a real firm hold on their positions atop the depth chart (although it’s not as if Ramon Urias, Dilson Herrera, Stevie Wilkerson and Jose Rondon are beating the door down). Velazquez may steal some at-bats, though like Alberto, he can move around the diamond, and there’s probably room for both in 2020. Richard Urena – a waiver claim from the Blue Jays – is a semi-interesting name to keep in mind. He didn’t impress enough over his time in Toronto to keep a 40-man spot, and most of the buzz around him comes from his strong showings in rookie ball. But if the switch-hitting infielder were ever to walk at the rate he did back then, he could develop into a useful bat as he enters his prime years. For now, however, he’ll start the year with Triple-A Norfolk.

Lastly, the Orioles said goodbye to Mark Trumbo and Dylan Bundy, two of their longest-tenured players. Trumbo and the Orioles had some good times, but health issues and too much of an all-or-nothing approach limited his utility. Orioles fans can look back fondly on his first year in orange and black, however, when Trumbo hit .256/.316/.533 as the AL’s home run king. He slugged 47 long balls in 2016 as a big part of that Wild Card team. Unfortunately for both team and player, Trumbo came nowhere close to repeating that production in the three years since (.242/.295/.413 with 40 home runs across 992 plate appearances). Trumbo appeared in just 12 games in 2019. At 34-years-old, there’s a decent chance he’s played his last game in the majors.

Bundy was a much-heralded prospect coming up, appearing for the first time for two appearances as a 19-year-old way back in 2012. He didn’t reappear in the majors until 2016, and he never quite took off. He finished his Baltimore career with a 38-45 record across 127 games with a 4.67 ERA/4.75 FIP. Still just 27-years-old, Bundy will look to join a long list of former Orioles to find their groove elsewhere. Elias sent Bundy to the Angels for four pitchers. None are huge prospects, with Kyle Bradish the highest ranked, landing as the Orioles #22 prospect (per Fangraphs). Isaac Mattson lands at #31, Zach Peek at #37, while Kyle Brnovich does not rank. There’s not an obvious star there, but the Orioles need prospects of all shapes and sizes, and there’s something to be said for returning three ranked arms and a flyer for a back-end starter (*though not all outlets include the four on the O’s top-30 prospects list).

2020 Outlook

For those not paying attention, you might assume the Orioles were the worst team in baseball again in 2019. But the Tigers swooped in and took that title, leaving the 108-loss Orioles without a distinction on which to hang their hats. It’s not as flashy, but we’ll give them this: the Orioles had the 4th largest year-over-year improvement from 2018 to 2019 in the American League. Their 7-win improvement (from 47 to 54 wins) outpaced all but the Twins, White Sox, and Rangers in that department. If Manager Brandon Hyde can just quadruple that feat in 2020, why, they’d be over .500. More likely, the Orioles are ticketed for a fourth consecutive season in the AL East basement.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Which Current Managers Had The Most Productive Playing Careers?

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For the most part, if you’re a manager in Major League Baseball, it means that you played in the bigs earlier in your life. Out of the game’s current 30 skippers, only seven fell short of the majors. That list consists of the Orioles’ Brandon Hyde, the Angels’ Joe Maddon, the Braves’ Brian Snitker, the Mets’ Luis Rojas, the Cardinals’ Mike Shildt, the Pirates’ Derek Shelton and the Padres’ Jayce Tingler. Of course, no MLB experience as a player doesn’t mean you’ll fail as a manager (just ask the resoundingly successful Maddon). Nevertheless, with baseball shut down and so little going on in the sport, I figured it would be interesting to see which current managers accumulated the most value when they played. Keep in mind that we’re only using one metric (fWAR), which certainly isn’t the end-all, be-all, and this doesn’t take factors such as intangibles and playoff performance into account (some of these guys produced some memorable postseason moments). However, fWAR does give at least a general idea about the kinds of careers these managers had as players (and here’s a fun fact: There’s only one ex-pitcher here). Take a look…

  • Don Mattingly, Marlins (first baseman for the Yankees from 1982-95): 40.7 fWAR in 7,721 plate appearances
  • Dusty Baker, Astros (outfielder for the Braves, Dodgers, Giants and Athletics from 1968-86): 37.9 fWAR in 8,021 plate appearances
  • David Ross, Cubs (catcher for the Cubs, Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers, Reds, Pirates and Padres from 2002-16): 22.4 fWAR in 2,644 plate appearances
  • Bud Black, Rockies (left-hander for the Mariners, Royals, Indians, Blue Jays and Giants from 1981-95): 18.2 fWAR in 2,053 1/3 innings
  • Dave Martinez, Nationals (outfielder for the Cubs, Expos, Rays, White Sox, Giants, Braves, Rangers, Reds and Blue Jays from 1986-2001): 18.1 fWAR in 6,48 plate appearances
  • Craig Counsell, Brewers (infielder for the Rockies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Brewers and Dodgers from 1995-2011): 17.6 fWAR in 5,484 plate appearances
  • David Bell, Reds (infielder for the Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Indians, Giants and Brewers from 1995-2006): 13.5 fWAR in 5,380 plate appearances
  • Dave Roberts, Dodgers (outfielder for the Indians, Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, Giants from 1999-2008): 10.3 fWAR in 3,092 plate appearances
  • Aaron Boone, Yankees (infielder for the Reds, Yankees, Indians, Marlins, Nationals and Astros from 1997-2009): 10.0 fWAR from 1997-2009
  • Rocco Baldelli, Twins (outfielder for the Rays and Red Sox from 2003-10): 8.0 fWAR in 2,065 plate appearances
  • Joe Girardi, Phillies (catcher for the Yankees, Cubs, Cardinals and Rockies from 1989-2003): 5.6 fWAR in 4,535 plate appearances
  • Gabe Kapler, Giants (outfielder for the Tigers, Rangers, Rockies, Red Sox, Brewers and Rays from 1998-2010): 5.4 fWAR in 3,315 plate appearances
  • Scott Servais, Mariners (catcher for the Astros, Cubs, Giants and Rockies from 1991-2001): 4.9 fWAR in 2,778 plate appearances
  • Ron Roenicke, Red Sox (outfielder for the Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, Padres, Reds and Mariners from 1981-88): 3.6 fWAR in 1,294 plate appearances
  • Mike Matheny, Royals (catcher for the Brewers, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Giants from 1994-2006): 2.8 fWAR in 4,287 plate appearances
  • Bob Melvin, Athletics (catcher for the Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Royals, Red Sox and White Sox from 1985-94): 2.5 fWAR in 2,095 plate appearances
  • Ron Gardenhire, Tigers (shortstop for the Mets from 1981-85): 0.9 fWAR in 777 plate appearances
  • Chris Woodward, Rangers (shortstop for the Blue Jays, Mets, Mariners, Braves and Red Sox from 1999-2011): 0.7 fWAR in 1,986 plate appearances
  • Charlie Montoyo, Blue Jays (second baseman for the Expos in 1993): 0.0 fWAR in five plate appearances
  • Rick Renteria, White Sox (infielder for the Pirates, Mariners and Marlins from 1986-94): minus-0.2 fWAR in 456 plate appearances
  • Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks (second baseman for the Tigers, Yankees, Angels, Mariners, Athletic, Indians and Phillies from 1988-99): minus-0.5 fWAR in 837 plate appearances
  • Terry Francona, Indians (first baseman/outfielder for the Expos, Cubs, Reds, Indians and Brewers from 1981-90): minus-1.7 fWAR in 1,826 plate appearances
  • Kevin Cash, Rays (catcher for the Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees and Astros from 2002-10): minus-2.4 fWAR in 714 plate appearances

10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles

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Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.

Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.

Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.

Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.

Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.

Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.

Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.

Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.

Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).

Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.

Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.

Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.

Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.

Losing Thor

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We were all dealing with much more significant problems when the shocking news came down: Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ high-octane hurler, was headed in for Tommy John surgery. That would’ve hit like a ton of bricks — just two days before Opening Day — had it not been for the fact that the season was already on pause.

The replacement of Thor’s ulnar collateral ligament will hopefully save his career. But it’ll wipe out his age-27 season, severely denting the hopes of the Mets in 2020 (should the campaign get underway). The hope had been that Syndergaard would trend back towards his immense ceiling, giving the team the game’s best 1-2 punch alongside uber-ace Jacob deGrom.

But that’s really only part of the picture for the Mets — the toughest, but also the simplest part. The club has no choice but to soldier on and trust in the arms it has compiled. There’s no changing course in late March. But what of the longer view?

The Mets will certainly tender Syndergaard a contract for 2021, his final season of arbitration eligibility, unless there’s a serious red flag in his rehab efforts. That’ll cost $9.7MM, a match for his 2020 salary. Even if the Mets only get something like half of a season from Syndergaard, he’s almost certainly worth that kind of risk. And the team would be buying the right to make him a qualifying offer — and, if he declines it, to accrue draft compensation — at season’s end.

But wait … we’re basically now contemplating Syndergaard as something of a ten million dollar roll of the dice on upside. It typically takes about 14 months for a starter to get back to full competitive action after undergoing the surgery, which would put him on track to resume action in June of 2021. And Syndergaard will have as much personal incentive to take full care in getting back to the hill as he will to perform well when he does, as he’ll be preparing for free agency. When GM Brodie Van Wagenen plotted his recent moves, including bidding adieu to Zack Wheeler, the idea was to have a full 2021 season of Syndergaard and deGrom. Instead, it’ll be deGrom, a hopeful mid-season return of Thor, and … let’s see what else …

The notion of an in-house Wheeler replacement, in the form of Marcus Stroman, made some amount of sense in the context of the 2020 campaign. But Stroman is now headed for his own trip on the open market, likely after turning down a qualifying offer. There’s no indication that the sides have gained traction in extension talks (if they’ve seriously engaged in them at all). Recent signees Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are only playing on one-year deals, so they’ll also be free agents.

Adding Stroman cost the Mets a near-majors prospect in Anthony Kay and a potential fast riser in Simeon Woods Richardson. The club had already moved another immediate-term rotation candidate in Justin Dunn, who went to Seattle in the Edwin Diaz–Robinson Cano deal.

[MLBTR on YouTube: Mets’ Disastrous Trade For Diaz & Cano] 

Those moves have left the upper reaches of the Mets farm relatively barren of well-regarded rotation talent. David Peterson, Thomas Szapucki, Franklyn Kilome, and Kevin Smith are among the best arms in the system who could be part of the 2021 rotation picture. But they’ll all lost major developmental opportunities due to the coronavirus. There are a few other somewhat more advanced hurlers, as we discussed in evaluating the team’s rotation depth this spring, but the general talent level is rated at a step below the names just listed. It’s awfully tough to presume that the Mets will feel comfortable leaning on this group.

The biggest wild card may be Steven Matz, whose ups and downs are well-documented. He has been healthy enough to make thirty starts in each of the past two seasons, carrying a sturdy 4.09 ERA across that span, but fielding-independent pitching measures aren’t nearly as bullish on Matz as they once were. In 2019, he generated a 4.60 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA — all checking in north of his 4.21 ERA.

If something goes wrong with Matz, the Mets could be looking at opening the 2021 season with four new rotation pieces alongside deGrom. Even with the prospect of a heroic return of Thor buoying the team mid-campaign, that’s a tough picture for an organization that has enjoyed so much excellence from its staff. On the plus side, there will be a lot of money available to work with … depending upon how you look at things.

The Mets were set to enter the 2020 season with just under $175MM of payroll; they’re committed for about $100MM less for 2021. That’s good! But it doesn’t include arbitration spending. With Syndergaard, Matz, Michael Conforto, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, and others, this could be a $40-45MM arbitration class. That would move the total payroll into the $120MM range.

Either way, there should in theory be some funds to work with, though it’s anyone’s guess what’ll be happening with the team’s uncertain ownership situation and how that will weigh on the situation. Thing is, the Mets will also have quite a few holes to fill. Adding as many as four reliable starters just isn’t easy to do on the cheap. The Mets also figure to have openings at catcher, in center field, and in a bullpen that will lose Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Brad Brach.

This is a tough spot for the Mets. In a normal season, they’d probably adjust their mid-season trade stance to being more willing to sell. If the campaign isn’t developing quite as hoped, there’d be an opportunity to cash in Stroman and perhaps others to help prepare for 2021. But we have no idea whether that’ll really be possible in a highly unusual 2020 season format (the details of which remain completely unknown at this point). And it’d hurt to take a seller stance after building up to contend.

The Mets were dealt a tough hand here; the loss of Syndergaard really stings even beyond 2020. Suppose he had pitched well in 2020 but the team went south in other areas; he’d have been a prime mid-season or offseason trade chip. Or what if things do indeed turn out well for the club even absent Thor? A contending Mets team may end up being forced to mine the farm system to bring in an impact arm, whether in mid-2020 or the ensuing offseason or both. Planning for the 2021 season and beyond will now be quite a bit more complicated, because it’ll be quite difficult to know what the club will get out of Syndergaard. And the possibility of an extension with Syndergaard — while perhaps remote to begin with — now seems quite difficult even to imagine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Replacing DJ LeMahieu

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A little over a year ago, there were plenty of Yankees fans clamoring for the team to make a huge splash in free agency and sign infielder Manny Machado. The Yankees did give it some consideration, but they ended up taking themselves out of the Machado sweepstakes in January 2019 when they made a far less splashy acquisition with the signing of fellow infielder DJ LeMahieu to a two-year, $24MM guarantee. A bit over a month later, Machado landed with the Padres on a franchise-record pact worth $300MM over 10 years.

If you were to bet on one of those players turning in an MVP-contending campaign last season, it would have been Machado, owner of the vastly superior track record. Shockingly, though, LeMahieu wound up far outdoing Machado. While dividing time among first, second and third for the AL East-winning Yankees, the ex-Cub and Rockie LeMahieu managed a career-high 5.4 fWAR and slashed .327/.375/.518 with 26 home runs (he had never toaled more than 15 in a previous season) across 655 plate appearances. The performance earned LeMahieu a fourth-place finish in AL MVP voting, trailing Mike Trout, Alex Bregman and Marcus Semien. Not bad for someone whom the Yankees could have only expected to be a complementary player when they added him.

Now, unfortunately for New York, it’s uncertain whether the soon-to-be free agent LeMahieu will ever don its uniform again. Even if the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t prevent a season from happening in 2020, LeMahieu could exit via the open market thereafter. As of late February, there hadn’t been momentum toward an extension.

If LeMahieu, slated to be the Yankees’ top second baseman in 2020, does leave as a free agent, how might they react? There are always other free agents, but the rest of the upcoming class at the keystone looks decidedly less promising. Players like Kolten Wong, Jonathan Villar, Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Schoop and Jurickson Profar are among the best of the bunch, but there aren’t any stars in the group (granted, LeMahieu wasn’t a star before he put on the pinstripes).

Another option for the Yankees could be to move Gleyber Torres back to second base and focus on the top of the shortstop market, which looks a lot more promising. The highly accomplished trio of Semien, old pal Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons are in line to lead the way. Perhaps a better idea would be to try to swing a trade for one of the premier shortstops in the game – the Indians’ Francisco Lindor and the Rockies’ Trevor Story could be available as players heading into their last seasons of control in 2021. The trade market for second basemen doesn’t look as if it will be nearly as enticing, but maybe the Royals will finally relent and show some willingness to move Whit Merrifield.

In the event a LeMahieu re-signing or a major middle infield acquisition doesn’t come together before 2021, would there be any immediate in-house replacements on hand? It’s hard to find an heir apparent worth getting excited about. The Yankees don’t have any prospects who are going to be ready right away. Higher up, the 25-year-old Tyler Wade could open 2020 on the Yankees’ bench, and maybe he’ll do enough to work his way into starting consideration for the ensuing season. To this point, though, he has done little to inspire. Wade offered mediocre offense at the Triple-A level during the past two years and has batted an unsightly .197/.268/.298 with three homers in 241 plate appearances as a Yankee. Fellow 40-man option Thairo Estrada doesn’t look like anything close to a surefire future regular, either.

All said, the Yankees’ middle infield situation could be a compelling one to watch when next offseason rolls around. You would think the Yankees will do all they can to re-up the soon-to-be 32-year-old LeMahieu, but until an extension comes together, there will be plenty of speculation about how they’ll handle second and short in 2021.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

When A Can’t-Miss Prospect Misses

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This isn’t how Carson Fulmer’s career was supposed to go. The former Vanderbilt ace was one of the top-ranked prospects in his draft class back in 2015, and virtually no mock drafts compiled by Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB.com, etc. that spring had him dropping out of the top 10. At one point, Baseball America projected Fulmer to go to the D-backs with the No. 1 overall pick. “Fulmer is the surest big leaguer on the board, with a floor of elite closer,” BA wrote of Fulmer at the time — a pretty resounding endorsement considering that three of the players eventually selected ahead of him were Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi.

Carson Fulmer | Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

Obviously, things haven’t played out for the now 26-year-old Fulmer as hoped. Everything went according to plan following that ’15 draft. Fulmer pitched a scoreless frame in the Rookie-level Arizona League before being jumping up to the ChiSox’ Class-A Advanced affiliate. Despite being about two years younger than the average competition in that league, Fulmer allowed just five runs on 16 hits and nine walks with 25 strikeouts in 22 innings (2.05 ERA). That strong debut landed him on the top 100 lists at Baseball America (70) and MLB.com (38).

Fulmer’s numbers a year later weren’t as stout. He averaged better than a strikeout per inning but also more than five walks per nine frames while working to a 4.76 ERA out of the Double-A rotation. The Sox called him up to the big leagues that July despite the shaky numbers — just 13 months after he was drafted. Some will suggest that the organization rushed him to the Majors, but Fulmer was viewed as a potential quick mover from the time he was selected. He closed out the game in his big league debut, firing two shutout innings of relief in a loss to the Angels. The righty struggled in a handful of subsequent appearances and went back to Triple-A to finish out the season.

Since that time, Fulmer has been optioned back to the minors eight different times. He’s generally remained healthy but hasn’t succeeded either in Triple-A (5.39 ERA in 243 2/3 innings) or in the Majors (6.56 ERA in 94 2/3 innings). Now, Fulmer is out of minor league options, so the White Sox will have to carry him on the Major League roster or expose him to waivers whenever play resumes. In that regard, the likely expansion of rosters for at least part of the 2020 season will work nicely in Fulmer’s favor.

Fulmer’s velocity isn’t as high as it once was. A heater that reached 97mph “often” in college, per Baseball America, has averaged 93.2 mph in the Majors (93.7 mph in 2019). His command issues have been exploited by more advanced hitters, and his walk rate and frequency of wild pitches have spiked since reaching Triple-A.

Despite the lack of success at the game’s top levels, Fulmer isn’t without positive indicators. The spin rate on his four-seamer and curveball were both elite in 2019, ranking in the 91st percentile and 87th percentile among big league hurlers, respectively, per Statcast. He recorded healthy swinging-strike rates on his curve, cutter and changeup. In Triple-A, he racked up 51 strikeouts in just 34 innings — a 13.5 K/9 and 33.6 percent overall strikeout percentage that were both easily career-bests at any level.

Might a change in approach benefit him? A look at his career fastball usage at Brooks Baseball shows that he’s long worked down in the zone with the pitch and did so almost exclusively in 2019 — even at a time when much of the league is favoring four-seamers at the top of and above the strike zone. His avoidance of elevated fastballs would help to explain the paltry 4.2 percent swinging-strike rate on his four-seamer in 2019.

At this point, Fulmer has been leapfrogged by a host of new young arms in the Sox’ system — Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Reynaldo Lopez among them. The White Sox’ initial hopes of Fulmer quickly ascending to the Majors to anchor a rotation alongside Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon have long since been dashed. There’s still room for him to carve out a long-term place in the team’s bullpen if he can piece it all together once games resume, but it’s far from certain that he’ll ever right the ship with the Sox. Chicago’s clear switch to a win-now mode should shorten whatever leash he’s been given in recent years. A change of scenery and a new outlook/approach could perhaps be best for Fulmer, but he’ll likely get one final shot to make things work with the South Siders.

J.D. Martinez, Alex Bregman … Jordan Luplow?

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Raise your hand if you know which three major league hitters had the most success against left-handed pitching last season. The first two names – Boston’s J.D. Martinez (242 wRC+) and Houston’s Alex Bregman (205) – don’t come as any kind of surprise. Everybody knows they’re elite offensive players. The same is not true of the third-place finisher, Indians outfielder Jordan Luplow, who put up a jaw-dropping 198 wRC+ and slashed .320/.439/.742 in 155 plate appearances versus southpaws. Nobody could have seen that coming when the Indians made a fairly under-the-radar trade for him before last year.

Heading into the 2018-19 offseason, Luplow was a Pirate who, in limited big league opportunities, didn’t produce much. At that point, the former third-round pick was the owner of a dismal .194/.274/.371 line (72 wRC+) in 190 trips to the plate. Unimpressed, Pittsburgh sent him to Cleveland in a deal that has gone the Indians’ way so far.

In exchange for Luplow and infielder Max Moroff, the Indians gave up infielder Erik Gonzalez and a couple minor league right-handers in Dante Mendoza and Tahnaj Thomas. Like Luplow, Gonzalez had been a replacement-level player and a non-threat at the plate in the majors when the trade occurred. Still, then-Pirates general manager Neal Huntington was happy to bring him aboard.

“Erik Gonzalez is an athletic middle infielder who plays solid defense and has the potential to be a productive hitter at the major league level,” said Huntington. “He gives us another quality option to play shortstop or in the middle of our infield this year and into the future.”

Gonzalez fell flat in Year 1 as a Pirate, though, as he batted an ugly .254/.301/.317 (59 wRC+) in 156 PA during an injury-shortened campaign. He’s 28 and controllable through 2022, so it’s too soon to throw dirt on Gonzalez’s career, but it’s not looking good so far. Meanwhile, the 21-year-old Mendoza has struggled in the minors, where he logged a 5.82 ERA/6.06 FIP across 43 1/3 innings in rookie ball last season. If there’s a silver lining to this trade for the Pirates so far, it’s that they got a solid prospect in Thomas, 20. Formerly an infielder, Thomas ranks as FanGraphs’ No. 5 Pirates farmhand. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote of Thomas two months ago, “He may be the most anonymous 100 mph arm in baseball.”

Perhaps Thomas will one day go down as a player who got away for Cleveland. For now, the team’s benefiting from the deal at the MLB level, though it’s already out one-half of its return in Moroff. He was a non-factor in the bigs last year and is now a member of the Mets organization. And, of course, Luplow doesn’t come without question marks at the plate. The righty amassed 106 PA versus same-handed pitchers in 2019, hit just one of his 15 home runs off them and could only muster a .216/.274/.299 line with a wRC+ of 48. Those are in line with the numbers he posted against right-handers in previous seasons.

Despite his shortcomings, the inexpensive Luplow has already given the Indians a substantial amount of bang for their buck. As a 2.2-fWAR performed last year, FanGraphs valued his output at $17.6MM. At the very least, the Indians appear to have found a nice platoon hitter in Luplow — one who has experience at all three outfield positions. The fact that he’s still just 26 and controllable for five more years (including two pre-arbitration seasons) only adds to his appeal from the low-budget Indians’ perspective.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Phillies’ Upside Scenario

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For a big-budget team that has in recent years added high-profile players like Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Jake Arrieta, the Phillies sure haven’t received a lot of attention of late. Perhaps it’s the fact that the rest of the NL East has been engaged in more interesting pursuits.

Let’s not overlook the challenges facing the Philadelphia organization in 2020 and beyond. The Nationals just won a World Series and still have elite talent. The Braves have taken the past two division titles and remain loaded. The Mets took a hit with the loss of Noah Syndergaard, but still have an imposing rotation and and an underappreciated amount of upside on the position-player side as well. And the Marlins? Well, we tend to overlook them, but maybe it’s time we recognize that the club’s young pitching is fairly interesting. They even spent some cash to bring in some veterans this offseason. Perhaps a renaissance isn’t far off.

Could the Phillies’ long-awaited return to the top of the heap stall out? There’s a real risk of it. Projection systems mostly seem to view the current roster as a generally average one, hardly a surefire contender. And the farm system isn’t exactly bursting with top-shelf youngsters just awaiting their chance in the majors. It’s necessary to acknowledge that the picture may never quite come all the way together as president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak envisioned. But let’s also consider the realistic upside in the group of players they’ve assembled.

Outfield

Bryce Harper: It has been a few years, but he’s only 27 and is one of only a few players who has proven capable of producing a ~10 WAR season.

Andrew McCutchen: Cutch was nearly that good at his peak, too, though it’s much further in the past. But we shouldn’t go too far in the other direction. McCutchen has been a high-quality everyday player even since moving out of superstar status. Added rest for his knee probably helps.

Adam Haseley/Roman Quinn/Jay Bruce: I’m not going to tell you I’m in love with this group, but you can squint and see how it can work out. Statcast hated Haseley’s quality of contact and Quinn hasn’t made good with his chances. But they’re both young players who could yet make strides. Bruce wasn’t great in Philly last year but has mostly been an above-average offensive producer even in his decline years.

Infield

J.T. Realmuto: The Phillies feel he’s the best catcher in baseball and it’s possible there’s even more in the tank. He has done more offensively than he did in 2019. There’ll be no shortage of motivation with free agency beckoning.

Rhys Hoskins: He collapsed late last year but still led the league in walks. If he can figure out what went wrong … he was a .263/.401/.530 monster through his first 392 plate appearances in 2019.

Didi Gregorius: We’re looking at a guy who was a quality defensive shortstop who produced about 25% more offensive than the average player in 2018. He wasn’t back to that level after fighting back from Tommy John surgery, but as with Hoskins, the established ceiling isn’t that far in the rearview mirror.

Jean Segura: A steady producer for three seasons before the Phillies acquired him, Segura stumbled a bit last year. But when you look under the hood, he mostly seems to be the same player, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he was to bounce back at thirty years of age.

Alec Bohm: The team’s top prospect bolted up the ladder last year and ended up posting big numbers at Double-A (.269/.344/.500; 38:28 K/BB ratio). He’s a candidate to break out upon his MLB arrival.

Utility

Scott Kingery: It’s important to remember that the Phillies can lean on Kingery in the infield or the outfield. That leaves flexibility to accommodate the rise of Bohm, needs in center field, or opportunities to add new players. Kingery had some ups and downs in his second season in the bigs, but ultimately made huge strides and turned in a league-average offensive season.

Josh Harrison/Neil Walker/Logan Forsythe/T.J. Rivera: The Phillies promised opportunities to compete in camp to a series of veterans who’ve had quite a bit of MLB success. That’s not necessarily likely to result in a lucky score of a high-quality regular, but it’s possible. And the team can reasonably hope it has added some useful pieces for cheap.

Rotation

Aaron Nola: He took a bit of a step back last year but was still quite good. And Nola put up a Cy Young-caliber effort in the season prior.

Zack Wheeler: This signing was all about the upside positively dripping from Wheeler’s high-powered right arm. There are risks, too, but there’s also a real possibility the Phils hit a home run here.

Jake Arrieta: As with McCutchen, it’d be foolish to pine for a return to the glory days. But Arrieta had turned in quality output even with diminished stuff before running into bigger problems in 2019. He was a sub-4.00 hurler in the two prior campaigns.

Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta/Zach Eflin: It’s something of an annual tradition to marvel at the big arms of Velasquez and Pivetta while wondering if they can succeed as MLB starters. It hasn’t really happened yet, but there have been flashes and crazier things have happened. Eflin’s peripherals slipped last year and he doesn’t exactly profile as an ace, but he has turned in 291 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball in the past two seasons.

Cole Irvin/Enyel De Los Santos/Adonis Medina/Spencer Howard: Irvin and De Los Santos have reached (but hardly mastered) the majors. It’s possible to imagine solid production coming from either or both. There are some highly regarded arms not far behind. It seems both of these hurlers have some development left, but when talent figures things out it can move quickly …

Bullpen

Hector Neris: He got the long balls under control in 2019 and returned to being one of the game’s more effective closers.

Tommy Hunter/David Robertson: It’s hard to count on too much, but these accomplished veterans could certainly have a rebound. The layoff will give extra time for both to rest and rehab.

Bud Norris/Anthony Swarzak/Blake Parker/Drew Storen: There are also a fair number of other veteran types looking to revive their careers in Philadelphia. Tough to say what to expect, but there are decent odds that there’s some productivity here. Norris is a particularly interesting candidate; he was quite useful in 2018 but sat out the ensuing season when interest didn’t develop as expected.

Victor Arano: He was quite good in 2018 and now has added time to recover from elbow surgery.

Deolis Guerra: The MLB track record is quite thin, but he thrived in a tough Triple-A environment last year.

Adam Morgan/Jose Alvarez/Ranger Suarez/Francisco Liriano: It’s not a star-studded group of lefties, but there is at least sufficient depth.

The Phils also have a fairly large group of younger pitchers already on the 40-man, many with MLB experience. While few jump off the page for their obvious upside, the Phillies can still hope that someone emerges from the group. Edgar Garcia may be the most interesting, with big swinging-strike rates and good results in the upper minors. There are three lefties with strong upper-minors strikeout numbers but other questions: Austin Davis, Garrett Cleavinger, and Kyle Dohy.

Remember, the bullpen is likely to end up with some spillover from the rotation, with Pivetta a particularly likely candidate to spend time in the ’pen. Hope remains that his stuff could play up in a relief role.

Overall

It’s silly to contemplate a scenario where literally everything breaks right for a team. That’s more or less impossible. But the realistic upside possibilities are fairly interesting. There’s potential for one mega-star (Harper), at least one top-of-class player (Realmuto), and several others with All-Star capabilities in the position-player mix. The pitching picture is similar, with a set of mid-prime hurlers who could emerge as twin aces and a reasonably interesting blend behind them.

Many have pegged the Phils as the fourth-best team in the NL East, and that’s quite possible accurate when you blend in all the downside. But this club still has the potential to break out — particularly if a strong early showing facilitates additional mid-season investments (presuming there’s such an opportunity).

Who’s The Top 2020-21 Free Agent Starter?

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There’s a lot of time left to assess the 2020-21 free agent class. It would help to have, y’know, some actual baseball to help inform. But in the absence of that, we can still make some assessments based upon what we already know.

Scanning the upcoming group of open-market starters, there’s no clear top arm. It’s certainly possible that one or more hurlers will significantly boost his stock with a big (partial) 2020 season, as we’ve seen in recent years from guys like Zack Wheeler and Patrick Corbin. But it’s pretty clear we’re not going to see another $200MM+ pitcher in the upcoming offseason.

There’s necessarily some serious guesswork here, but let’s see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Here are the candidates we’ll consider … which is likeliest to be the top free agent starter? (In alphabetical order below, randomized in the poll.)

  • Trevor Bauer: Well, we just gave you our best early guesses on camera. There’s no denying the upside here, as exhibited in his monster 2018 season. Bauer has all the necessary tools and is a curious craftsman when it comes to driving improvement. With a strong showing, he could be chased by quite a few contenders that find appeal in the idea of a rental ace.
  • Mike Minor: The results have been quite good and Minor’s health issues have faded. Perhaps his two lost seasons (2015-16) can even be spun as a bit of an advantage, in that he wasn’t logging mileage on his arm in that span.
  • Jake Odorizzi: Here’s a hurler that is easy to overlook. Odorizzi is coming off of a 3.51 ERA campaign and can’t be issued another qualifying offer.
  • James Paxton: With a long layoff, Paxton has had an opportunity to rest his surgically repaired back. That could help him more than any other player on this list.
  • Jose Quintana: Steady production. Excellent durability. He was probably somewhat unfortunate to post below-average results in 2019.
  • Robbie Ray: Probably the favorite for top dog status … and yet … the strikeout numbers are gaudy, but so are the walk rates. And Ray hasn’t consistently turned swings and misses into output. He owns a 4.11 ERA and landed higher than that mark in 2019.
  • Garrett Richards: When he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty awesome. Richards is recovered from Tommy John surgery and well-rested.
  • Marcus Stroman: It’s possible we’re not hyping Stroman enough. He just turned in 32 starts of 3.22 ERA ball.
  • Masahiro Tanaka: Through his six years in the majors, Tanaka has run up over a thousand frames of 3.75 ERA pitching.
  • Other: There’s a case that you’d be best off betting on the field. There are some talented arms out there who could launch back into big-contract status with a strong showing in 2020. Among them: Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha, Jimmy Nelson, Anthony DeSclafani, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, etc.

Who’s the favorite to be the market leader? (Poll link for app users.)

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