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MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Correa, Jansen, Rodney, Trout

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(August 10th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • ST. LOUIS CARDINALS | Depth Chart
    • Placed on 10-Day DL: RP John Brebbia (strained forearm)
      • Brebbia was optioned to Triple-A on August 6th, but that option was rescinded.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • LOS ANGELES ANGELS | Depth Chart
    • Placed on 10-Day DL: OF Mike Trout (wrist inflammation, retro to August 6th)
      • Eric Young Jr. has been playing CF in Trout’s absence.
      • Trout is expected to return when eligible.
    • Promoted: RP Akeel Morris

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Devers, Happ, Herrera, Stripling

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(August 8th-August 9th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • PITTSBURGH PIRATES | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 10-Day DL: 1B Josh Bell
      • Bell played 1B and batted 7th/6th on Wednesday/Thursday.
    • Optioned: 1B/OF Jose Osuna

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

The Best Minor League Signings Of 2018: Position Players

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Early this season, we checked in on the players that were playing notable MLB roles after settling for minor-league deals over the winter. (Position players; starting pitchers; relievers.) It was small samples galore.

Unsurprisingly, many of the names that featured in the initial look have faded, while other minor-league signees have emerged. Accordingly, we’ll reexamine this year’s crop of budget acquisitions to see which players have provided real utility over the course of the season to date.

We’ll begin, as we did the last time around, with position players. Frankly, as is typical, there haven’t been many significant contributors from among the MiLB contract ranks. But these five are all worthy of note:

  • Alen Hanson, Giants: Once a notable prospect, Hanson has made the most of his first extended MLB opportunity this year in San Francisco. Driven by a surprising .194 isolated slugging mark, the out-of-options 25-year-old owns a .276/.301/.469 slash with six home runs and five stolen bases through 208 plate appearances. While defensive metrics aren’t in love with the glove, Hanson’s versatility has been of use and he adds value on the bases, too. He seems like a keeper for the Giants, who control him through the 2022 season.
  • Mark Reynolds, Nationals: The 35-year-old languished on the market before landing with the Nationals, but has proven he can still draw a walk and hit for power. On the year, he carries a .269/.359/.537 slash with 11 home runs in 156 plate appearances. That certainly helped keep the Nats afloat as injuries derailed the team’s original plans, though certainly Reynolds remains severely limited by his defensive limitations and poor baserunning.
  • A.J. Ellis, Padres: Long a respected presence behind the dish, the 37-year-old Ellis has contributed with the bat as well in 2018. As usual, his most notable offensive skill is his plate discipline — his 15.0% walk rate even exceeds his peak levels — but Ellis has also hit for more average than usual thus far. While the .370 BABIP gives cause for skepticism as to sustainability, Ellis has been one of the game’s biggest on-base threats this year among players with at least 100 plate appearances.
  • Max Muncy, Dodgers: Okay, this is cheating a bit. Muncy signed with the Dodgers in 2017, after all. But he did not appear with the organization at the MLB level until the present campaign, and the results have been too good not to warrant mention. True, Muncy has come back to earth of late, slumping out of the All-Star break, but he still owns a stunning .253/.380/558 slash line with 24 home runs on the season. Better still, he has not only received good marks on the basepaths, but has mostly drawn average marks for his fielding while lining up at five different positions.
  • Jose Bautista, Mets: Yup, I’m bending the rules here again. Joey Bats signed onto the MLB roster with New York, but he squeezes onto the list because he initially inked a minors pact with the Braves. You also have to put up some blinders on his early showing in Atlanta. Since going to the Mets, though, Bautista has contributed a .208/.360/.372 slash. The once-prodigious power just isn’t there, and he’s striking out at twice his mid-prime rate, but a 17.5% walk rate has allowed Bautista to rate as an above-average offensive player despite a sub-Mendoza batting average for the season.
  • Niko Goodrum, Tigers: With a hat tip to MLBTR commenter JosephofMichigan for the suggestion, we’ll add the 26-year-old switch-hitter here as well. Goodrum is swinging and missing too much and only has a .294 on-base percentage through 340 plate appearances, but he’s showing good pop (.188 ISO, ten home runs) and adding value on the bases (3.1 BsR, eight steals). As with Hanson, the metrics are somewhat bearish on Goodrum’s glovework, but he has been asked to play all over the infield along with both corner outfield spots.

Did I miss a worthy player? Let me know in the comments.

Top 20 August Trade Candidates

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Those that need a refresher on how August trades work should read our recent post on the subject. You’ll also find some notable examples of revocable waiver swaps in that post.

We’ve already seen a few of the top August trade candidates change uniforms this year. Shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and pitchers Mike Fiers, Tyson Ross, Jordan Lyles, and Shawn Kelley have all been on the move in the first week of the month.

That doesn’t mean we’ve seen the end of the action, however. We’ll run through the most notable remaining candidates here. As always, the ranking is based upon a combination of trade likelihood and trade value. (Last year, for example, Justin Verlander barely cracked the back end of our final August ranking, because his contract situation made a deal hard to structure even though he otherwise profiled as a significant trade candidate. He ended up being traded in memorable fashion.) After the list, we’ve also rounded up some other potential candidates who are worth keeping an eye on as things develop over the course of the month.

Here goes:

1. Sergio Romo, RP, Rays: He’s carrying a 3.35 ERA on the year, with 10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 51 frames, while working as a late-inning reliever, an “opener,” and even (quite briefly) a third baseman. Romo’s generally stellar swinging-strike rate is down a bit (to a still-strong 12.9%), but he’s still getting the job done and doing so in a manner that ERA estimators believe in (3.50 FIP / 3.75 xFIP / 3.25 SIERA). The veteran is an affordable rental player ($2.5MM salary), though that also means he’s easy to hold onto for a Rays club that may have designs on a reunion next season.

2. Jose Iglesias, SS, Tigers (cleared waivers): Though he’s not much with the bat, Iglesias has been better this year than in recent campaigns. In particular, he has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .931 OPS. And, of course, he remains an exquisite defender. We recently saw that there was a market for a similar, arguably lesser player in Hechavarria. Iglesias, who’s also a pending free agent and comes with a $6.275MM salary, seems reasonably likely to land somewhere before the calendar flips to September.

3. Jim Johnson, RP, Angels: With a 3.27 ERA and 7.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 through 44 innings, Johnson has certainly been worth his $4.5MM salary. He’s no longer a dominant groundball pitcher, but still gets them on about half of the balls put in play against him. While there’s not much reason to think that any team will give up significant value to get Johnson, he would at least be a useful depth piece for a contender. Since the Halos have relatively little motivation to keep the pending free agent, other than to fill up innings, it’s easy to imagine him moving in some way this month.

4. Francisco Liriano, SP/RP, Tigers (cleared waivers): The Astros targeted Liriano last summer, so perhaps it shouldn’t surprise if he’s again viewed as an intriguing piece to add to a staff. Liriano could function as a matchup lefty in the bullpen while also providing some length, since he has worked as a starter this year. He’s currently sporting a 4.37 ERA over 90 2/3 innings, though he’s carrying only a 73:51 K/BB ratio and ERA estimators aren’t enamored with his work this year. It’s worth noting, however, that Liriano has been quite stingy against lefties this year, holding 72 same-handed hitters to a meager .125/.222/.219 slash.

5. Jerry Blevins, RP, Mets: Blevins has lowered his ERA to 4.08 since it sat at 5.30 in late June. His peripherals still aren’t quite as intriguing as they have been in the recent past, he’s struggling against lefties, and he’s generating swinging strikes at only an 8.5% rate on the year. But Blevins has a long history of success against same-handed hitters and is an obvious August trade candidate given that he’s earning a $7MM salary before returning to the open market.

6. Matt Harvey, SP, Reds: With Fiers and Ross already out the door, Harvey is arguably the most appealing rotation piece that’s obviously available. Frankly, though, that isn’t saying much. Harvey hasn’t really impressed of late. Harvey hasn’t lasted six innings in an outing since the beginning of July and has been knocked around in two of his last three starts. In 15 starts with the Reds, he carries a 4.79 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.

7. Fernando Rodney, RP, Twins: It came as a mild surprise when the journeying closer wasn’t dealt at the deadline, but it’s also no surprise that the Minnesota organization values its $4.25MM option over Rodney for 2019. He’s earning at the same, amply manageable rate this year. It’s all but certain that the ageless hurler will be claimed, as he owns a 3.09 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 on the year. The question is whether the claim will go to a truly motivated team that can convince the Twins to make a deal.

8. Marco Estrada, SP, Blue Jays: Coming off of an excellent start in which he allowed just one earned run on one hit, Estrada could perhaps still turn into an intriguing trade candidate if he can get on a roll. He is still carrying only a 4.65 ERA on the year and just came back from a long layoff. His $13MM salary is certain to clear waivers, so the Jays will have plenty of options to consider.

9. Devin Mesoraco, C, Mets: Much like the man he was traded for earlier this year (Harvey), Mesoraco rates as an obvious trade candidate who perhaps simply hasn’t generated enough interest yet. Mesoraco hasn’t sustained a hot start at the plate since moving to New York, but still carries a nearly league-average .228/.301/.407 output in 186 plate appearances with the Mets. He could make sense for the right organization, particularly if an injury situation arises.

10. Tyler Clippard, RP, Blue Jays: Despite producing strong bottom-line results for much of the season, the veteran reliever has seen his earned-run average cross the 4.00 barrier after some rough recent outings. Still, he’s getting swinging strikes at a healthy 14.1% rate, has a ton of experience in high-leverage situations, and is earning just $1.5MM this season. It’s not hard to imagine a contending team deciding that it’d be nice to have him around down the stretch, much as the Astros did last year.

11. Freddy Galvis, SS, Padres: There’s a split of opinion from UZR and DRS on Galvis’s glovework this year at short, with the former grading him as average and the latter viewing him as an outstanding performer. No matter, the track record shows that Galvis is at least capable of holding his own at short. He also has experience at other infield spots. The switch-hitter has been better this year against lefties, but that’s counter to his career numbers.

12. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays: He’s the obvious number one name on this list — if and when he gets back to full health. Still, he warrants mention even though that hasn’t yet occurred. It’s not impossible, after all, that he’ll be dealt even before he’s back in action. That’s especially true if the Toronto org tries to put him through waivers at the outset of his rehab assignment. Click here for a recent breakdown of the potential maneuvering this month involving Donaldson.

13. Jose Bautista, OF, Mets: With a .193/.309/.325 batting line in the month of July, Bautista hasn’t exactly been on fire of late. And there’s no evidence that he’s the feared slugger of yore. Plus, Bautista is striking out in nearly thirty percent of his plate appearances, quite a bit more than ever before. That said, he can still put the ball over the fence and he’s as disciplined at the plate as anyone in the game, with an outstanding 17.1% walk rate. The Mets are said to like the idea of having him around next year, even if they trade him. With Bautista earning only the league minimum salary, the club may want at least some kind of an interesting return to do a deal for a player they’d evidently prefer to keep on their roster. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen.

14. Curtis Granderson, OF, Blue Jays: Much like Joey Bats, the Grandy Man has seemed for most of the season like an interesting bench bat target. But he turned in a dreadful month of July (.192/.268/.301). Granderson has been limited almost exclusively to facing right-handed pitching; he owns a respectable but hardly outstanding .243/.338/.433 slash against them for the season. Of course, some clubs may value his veteran presence down the stretch, too, and it shouldn’t be too hard to sort out the remainder of his $5MM salary.

15. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins: He’s only three starts into his return from a long injury layoff and hasn’t been in vintage form. Still, the veteran hurler has some time to show he can still be effective. His hefty $13.5MM salary makes it quite likely he’ll clear waivers; there’s also a $1MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2019. If the Twins decide they aren’t going to pick that up, then perhaps they’ll seek to get what they can (cost savings and/or prospects) at some point this month.

16. Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH, Rangers: Choo has been very productive at the plate, but he’s also mostly limited to functioning as a designated hitter, is already 36 years of age, and is not only owed the balance of his $20MM annual salary this year but $42MM more for the coming two seasons. He’d mostly appeal to American League teams, but it’s not clear that any of the current contenders is really positioned to add him.

17. Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins: A strong run at the plate of late increases Castro’s appeal somewhat, though teams generally know what to expect. He’s a solidly average player earning a bit more than he’d likely command on the open market, with a $10MM salary this year, $11MM owed for 2019, and a $1MM buyout due thereafter. Still, if a sudden infield need arises, he’d be an immediate fill-in option. And the Marlins would surely be open to striking a deal.

18. Logan Morrison, 1B/DH, Twins: Hear me out. True, Morrison has been poor at the plate for most of the season. His $6.5MM salary feels steep given the output, and there’s still a $1MM buyout on a 2019 option. Plus, there are a few other lefty sluggers that could still be added. But none of those other players was as good as Morrison last year and Statcast suggests he’s been a victim of poor fortune in 2018 (.290 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA). The Twins ought to be motivated to save some cash, and Morrison might be an intriguing bench/platoon bat for the right contender.

19-20. Elvis Andrus, SS & Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers: Andrus is hitting again and could be a free agent at season’s end. But his opt-out situation — he can choose to hit the open market this year or next, or play for at least four more years and $58MM — greatly complicates things. That said, the Tigers managed to deal Justin Upton last year in a generally similar situation, so perhaps a swap can’t be ruled out. As for Beltre, there was interest heading into the deadline. Unlike Adam Jones of the Orioles — another high-priced, highly respected player with full no-trade rights — Beltre never (so far as is publicly known) fully ruled out a deal. While both he and the team are seemingly happy to continue their relationship for the rest of the year, if not beyond, perhaps there’s still a chance that he’s dealt.

Injured

Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals; Doug Fister, SP, Rangers; Tony Barnette, RP, Rangers; Jay Bruce, Mets

Also Considered

Starting Pitchers: Bartolo Colon, Rangers; Jaime Garcia, Blue Jays; Andrew Cashner & Alex Cobb, Orioles; Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers; James Shields, White Sox; Yovani Gallardo, Rangers

Relievers: Addison Reed, Twins; Anthony Swarzak, Mets; Jake Petricka, Blue Jays; Luis Avilan, Xavier Cedeno & Hector Santiago, White Sox; Chris Martin, Rangers

Infielders: Martin Prado, Marlins; Todd Frazier, Mets; Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays; Danny Valencia, Orioles; Todd Frazier, Mets; Lucas Duda, Royals; A.J. Ellis, Padres; Logan Forsythe, Twins

Outfielders: Carlos Gomez, Rays; Mark Trumbo & Adam Jones, Orioles; Eric Young & Kole Calhoun, Angels; Billy Hamilton, Reds

Teams To Watch

The American League field has been narrowed substantially, with just six teams battling for five postseason spots. Unless one of those clubs goes through a terrible run over the next few weeks, the divide between buyers and sellers will remain fixed on that side.

It’s quite different in the National League, however. There’s still loads of uncertainty and many possibilities for change in the coming weeks. The Nationals, Cardinals, and Giants all entered the season with expectations of contention, but could still pivot if they fall further back. Likewise, the Pirates could still decide to seek some savings on veterans if things go south. That could make for some fascinating, late-emerging trade candidates. For now, the picture remains unclear.

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Bettis, Drury, Holland, O’Neill, Springer

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(August 6th-August 7th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • SAN DIEGO PADRES | Depth Chart
    • Promoted: SP Brett Kennedy (contract purchased)
      • Kennedy will make his MLB debut on Wednesday.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

A Layman Attempts To Calculate WAR: An Introduction

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In 2018, WAR is everywhere.  Love it or hate it, the wins above replacement metric has changed the way we evaluate Major League Baseball players.  WAR is an attempt to encapsulate all tangible aspects of a player’s value into one number.  It allows for all players throughout MLB history to be compared on a single scale.  It’s a grand idea that has firmly taken root.

Whether it’s fans, baseball writers, agents, or executives, just about everyone citing WAR understands the general idea.  But I’ve long wondered how many of us are capable of pulling open a spreadsheet and accurately calculating WAR, with a reasonable understanding of each component.  Furthermore, how many can explain the limitations of the current WAR calculation?  And do we understand which subjective choices were made to get to the current formula?

For a long time, I’ve wanted to write this series.   I’m a reasonable candidate: I’m not bad with numbers, nor am I especially talented.  I know my way around Excel, but I’m not an expert.  If I run into roadblocks as I try to understand WAR, perhaps you will too.  If not, hopefully you can help educate me in the comments section.  Let’s crack open the hood and attempt to understand WAR from a layman’s perspective.

As you might imagine, the WAR calculation differs for position players and pitchers.  Plus, major sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus have different formulas.  For this exercise, I’m going to dig into FanGraphs WAR.  That’s the version we use here at MLBTR.  I don’t have any evidence of this, but I feel that FanGraphs WAR might be the most commonly cited version.  Otherwise, I don’t have any justification as to why MLBTR should cite FanGraphs WAR and not someone else’s.  By the end of this project I hope to have a clear understanding of the differences.

For simplicity’s sake, we’ll begin this exercise by examining position players.   From what I understand, there is a little more room for subjectivity in the pitching formula, so we’ll leave that discussion for later.  I’ll approach the subject by utilizing a case study, as that will keep us grounded in reality.  I’ll attempt to see how if I can reasonably arrive at the known WAR figure that was compiled, examining lessons that arise along the way.

So, here’s a quick preview of what’s coming. Our preliminary subject will be the 2017 season of Chris Taylor of the Dodgers. It’s an interesting year to look at, as he racked up an impressive 4.8 WAR while making defensive contributions at five different positions. It’s easy to see that Taylor made positive contributions in offense, defense, and baserunning. We’ll examine each of the three components in separate installments, beginning next time with Taylor’s work at the plate.

I hope that this exercise will offer plenty of opportunities for dialogue on a notable, sometimes misunderstood subject. I’m looking forward to plenty of respectful debate along the way.

MLB Weekend Roster Roundup: Fowler, McCullers, Myers, Osuna, Snell

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(August 4th-August 5th)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

  • CINCINNATI REDS | Depth Chart
      • Promoted:  RP Austin Brice
        • Brice was the 26th man for Saturday’s double-header.
  • WASHINGTON NATIONALS | Depth Chart
    • Promoted: RP Austin Voth
      • Voth was the 26th man for Saturday’s double-header.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Matz, Miller, Pham, Pillar

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(August 3rd)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • CLEVELAND INDIANS | Depth Chart
    • Activated from 60-Day DL: RP Andrew Miller
    • Designated for assignment: RP Zach McAllister
    • Injury news: OF Tyler Naquin is likely out for the remainder of the season after undergoing hip surgery. He is currently on the 10-Day DL.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

MLB Daily Roster Roundup: Frazier, Happ, LeMahieu, Turner, Syndergaard

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ROSTER MOVES BY TEAM
(August 1st-August 2nd)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

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AMERICAN LEAGUE

  • MINNESOTA TWINS | Depth Chart
    • Added to 25-man roster: INF Logan Forsythe
      • Forsythe grounded out as a pinch-hitter in his Twins debut on Wednesday.

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FUTURE EXPECTED MOVES

How Might Things Play Out For Josh Donaldson?

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The thought long was that Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson would be a major trade chip for the team if things went awry in 2018. While the Toronto organization is well into a sell-off, however, Donaldson remains. That’s due largely to the fact that he hasn’t played since the end of May, with a setback in his rehab from a calf injury keeping him on the shelf through the non-waiver trade deadline.

Donaldson has “made a ton of progress” of late, per GM Ross Atkins (via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, on Twitter), so he seems likely to feature heavily in August trade talks. Indeed, the Jays have already had plenty of talks involving the star third baseman, Atkins also noted (via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, on Twitter). Of course, we’re still talking about a player who was perhaps the best in all of baseball (non-Trout division) over the prior three seasons. If he can get back to full health, Donaldson could be a difference-maker down the stretch and into the postseason for the right organization.

Given the complications of dealmaking in August, though, how might all this play out?

[RELATED: How August Trades Work]

There are innumerable variables at play here. Donaldson will need not only to get healthy — he also dealt with significant shoulder problems earlier in the year — but restore his performance in order to bring back real value. Through 159 plate appearances on the season, he was hitting a respectable .234/.333/.423 while playing average defense, levels at which he’s a quality but hardly world-beating performer.

Before organizations considering Donaldson can get a look, though, they may first face a decision on whether to roll the dice on claiming him. This is perhaps the most interesting aspect of the entire situation for the former AL MVP.

Since he has already been on the disabled list for sixty days, Donaldson can be placed on waivers once he’s ready to play on a rehab assignment. At that point, which may come sooner than later, the pending free agent will be expensive (around $7MM of his $23MM salary remains to be paid as of this writing) and plenty risky. Rival teams will know that he’s at least healthy enough to get back on the field, but won’t be sure he’s over the injury and up to full speed (let alone that he’s in top form).

At first glance, the presumption would be that non-contenders wouldn’t have any reason to place a claim on such a player. Then again, as the Phillies showed last year, it may be unwise to assume that a creative front office won’t see an angle here.

It’s important to note that Donaldson will be available first to American League teams, in reverse order of record at the time the request for waivers is submitted. If none of the non-contenders intercede, the Indians are quite likely to have the first crack at him. The Cleveland organization presently sits 3.5 games behind the Mariners and A’s (the club that memorably dealt Donaldson to Toronto). As it turns out, the Indians could certainly still stand to add a major piece to their lineup and could easily slot Donaldson in at third base while bumping star Jose Ramirez to second and pushing Jason Kipnis into a utility role.

Of course, the remaining salary is a hefty sum — particularly for the Indians — in light of the multiple elements of uncertainty here. If the Cleveland org passes, then the rest of the American League contenders could win the claim instead, or Donaldson could be claimed by an organization on the NL side (who’ll also be ordered from worst to best in priority).

Winning a revocable August claim, of course, doesn’t mean that a team gets the player. Rather, it only gives the claiming organization a chance to work out a deal with the team that sought waivers, which has the election of pulling the player back (after which point only irrevocable waivers may be sought), working out a trade, or simply letting him go for free.

In this case, despite Donaldson’s struggles and injury questions, the Jays could well hold out for a real return. The organization won’t likely be desperate to dump the salary. And it may view a qualifying offer at season’s end as a reasonable alternative to a deal. After all, Donaldson would represent a nice risk even at the hefty single-season QO rate (likely in the $18MM range this offseason). And if he declines the Jays would stand to pick up some draft compensation in a year in which they’ll have some decent draft capital to work with.

[RELATED: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Supposing that Donaldson does end up passing through waivers unclaimed, we’ll end up watching his rehab and eventual return quite closely. If that occurs, the Jays will be able to auction the star third bagger off to the highest bidder at the end of the month. While it was quite a different situation in many respects, the Justin Verlander trade last August shows that it’s still possible to get notable returns in August. Donaldson would be a pure rental asset who lacks no-trade protection, so he’d be much simpler to market than was Verlander.

The optimal outcome from the Blue Jays’ perspective is for Donaldson to clear waivers, return to action, put up vintage JD output for a few weeks, and then draw huge interest from a variety of contenders at the end of the month. That’s plausible, though by no means guaranteed.

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