Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
This is the final post in MLBTR’s annual series reviewing the offseason efforts of every team in baseball.
The 2018-19 offseason marked yet another winter of measured free-agent spending and luxury-tax-motivated trades for the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers.
Major League Signings
- A.J. Pollock, OF: Four years, $55MM
- Joe Kelly, RHP: Three years, $25MM
- Total spend: $80MM
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Traded OF Yasiel Puig, OF Matt Kemp, LHP Alex Wood, C Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for RHP Homer Bailey (released), SS Jeter Downs and RHP Josiah Gray
- Acquired C Russell Martin from the Blue Jays in exchange for SS Ronny Brito and RHP Andrew Sopko
- Acquired RHP Jaime Schultz from the Rays in exchange for RHP Caleb Sampen
- Traded INF/OF Tim Locastro to the Yankees in exchange for RHP Drew Finley
- Traded LHP Manny Banuelos to the White Sox in exchange for 3B Justin Yurchak
- Traded LHP Adam McCreery to the Braves in exchange for cash
Extensions
- Clayton Kershaw: One year, $28MM (bringing his total contract to three years, $93MM)
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
- Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, Brian Dozier, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, Chase Utley, Josh Fields, Daniel Hudson, Tom Koehler, Pat Venditte, Erik Goeddel, Zac Rosscup, John Axford
[Dodgers organizational depth chart][Dodgers payroll information]
Needs Addressed
We’ve reached the point where it should be accepted that despite their extraordinarily deep pockets, the Dodgers aren’t going to flex their financial might to their fullest extent. That’s not a knock on the organization, which has been extremely successful under the current ownership group and front office regime, but simply an acknowledgement that the team’s days of MLB-leading payrolls look to be a thing of the past.
At the outset of free agency, we at MLBTR predicted that the Dodgers, who dipped under the luxury tax line in 2018, would be the team to agree to a lengthy contract with Bryce Harper. That was never particularly close to happening, as the Dodgers sought to sign Harper to a record-shattering annual value but only on a four- or five-year deal. Perhaps, if they can find a free agent amenable to such a structure in the future, the Dodgers will exceed the luxury line again, but it was reported this offseason that the organization has drawn up plans to avoid doing so for the next several seasons. The trade of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey — whom they immediately released — and a pair of prospects meshed with that directive.
The Dodgers’ first order of business this winter came in the form of finding a middle ground with Clayton Kershaw, who could have opted out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract. An extension was long viewed as a strong possibility, and in the end, the Dodgers locked up Kershaw on a deal even friendlier than many expected. Kershaw tacked an extra year and $28MM onto his preexisting deal in exchange for forgoing his opt-out provision, allowing the club to maintain one of the generation’s most dominant pitchers at an affordable rate. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, and he’ll probably never sustain the level of dominance he once did, but there’s no denying his ongoing excellence when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. A $31MM annual rate is nearly as steep as it gets for a pitcher in baseball, but Kershaw notched a 2.73 ERA in 161 1/3 innings and was worth 3.3 WAR (per both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference) in last year’s “down” season.
With Kershaw taken care of, the Dodgers began eyeing upgrades elsewhere on the roster. Rather than earnestly pursue the market’s top names, the Dodgers were aggressive in the second tier of free agency. A.J. Pollock was arguably the best non-Harper outfielder on the market and was compensated as such ($55MM in guaranteed money), while the flamethrowing Joe Kelly was regarded as one of the top non-Craig Kimbrel relievers. (His addition hasn’t paid early dividends, but Kelly’s .410 BABIP will regress over time, and metrics like xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.27) point to brighter days ahead.) Both were brought in on contracts with manageable annual salaries for a team with pockets this deep.
Having issued Yasmani Grandal a qualifying offer he unsurprisingly rejected, the Dodgers were involved in the J.T. Realmuto market for much of the offseason. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t willing to meet the prospect price tag put on Realmuto by the Marlins and instead shifted focus to old friend Russell Martin. While Martin’s bat is nowhere near what it once was, he maintained an elite walk rate and framing skills in 2018.
The other qualifying offer issued by the Dodgers went to lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who accepted the $17.9MM payday rather than test his strong but injury-riddled track record on the open market. At the time, it was at least worth wondering whether a team might’ve committed multiple years and a slightly higher guarantee (at a lower annual rate) to Ryu. However, given the manner in which the offseason played out, Ryu has to be quite happy with his decision to remain in Los Angeles at a premium rate. His return gave the Dodgers an even more enviable collection of rotation depth, joining Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling (among others).
Corey Seager‘s return to the lineup only bolstered the Dodgers’ offensive potential, and Alex Verdugo‘s ascension up the minor league ladder gives the Dodgers another high-upside bat upon which to dream. Verdugo’s rise (and the signing of Pollock) allowed L.A. to at least explore the possibility of trading Joc Pederson this winter, with the Braves and White Sox among the rumored suitors. However, there was apparently never anything that convinced the Dodgers to take the plunge, and Pederson remains on hand as part of a roster that features largely unmatched depth in both the infield and outfield.
Questions Remaining
That’s not to say that there aren’t questions surrounding the roster even in light of a hot start to the season. The lineup is deep and more dangerous than ever thanks to Cody Bellinger doing his best Ted Williams impression, but it’s hard not to look at the pairing of Martin and Austin Barnes behind the dish and wonder whether the duo brings enough offense to the table. The asking price for Realmuto from the Dodgers was surely steep, but imagining a lineup that pairs him with this version of Bellinger and the rest of the Dodgers’ potent bats seems almost unfair to opposing pitchers. Biting that bullet could’ve made this lineup into a veritable juggernaut, and it’s not hard to see the Dodgers seeking catching help come July. Perhaps catching prospect Will Smith will be MLB-ready by that point, but that’s hardly a given.
It’s a somewhat similar tale in the bullpen, where the Dodgers have ample options but relatively little in terms of established arms. Kenley Jansen has begun to show signs that he is, in fact, human after years of unhittable ninth-inning mastery, and while Kelly was brought in as an expected top-quality setup option, the Dodgers took their typical approach of cobbling together a relief unit beyond that point. Pedro Baez has been a good but sometimes shaky option in the ‘pen for years. Dylan Floro is one of the quietest bargain finds the Dodgers have made.
But the mix of JT Chargois, Scott Alexander, Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia, Josh Sborz and Jaime Schultz isn’t as solid as one would expect from a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. It’s true that Julio Urias and Tony Cingrani are also factors, but durability questions with that duo are even more pronounced than with most relievers. Adding another arm to the ‘pen to deepen the mix would’ve been prudent, and it seems almost inevitable that the Dodgers will be in that market a couple months from now. There’s a clear on-paper match with Craig Kimbrel, but signing him would push the team into luxury tax territory, and Kimbrel’s asking price apparently hasn’t dropped to the point where Los Angeles (or any other club) is willing to jump on board. It doesn’t seem all that likely that they’ll be the team to sign him in the end.
2019 Season Outlook
The Dodgers entered the season as clear favorites in the National League West, and a poor start to the season for their primary competitors in Denver didn’t do much to change that line of thinking. Surprisingly hot starts from the upstart Padres and the wait-aren’t-they-kind-of-rebuilding Diamondbacks have added an interesting wrinkle to the division, but the Dodgers are still pacing the group. With the talent and depth cultivated by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff, as well as that group’s willingness to make a trade to plug holes as they arise, the Dodgers are still the favorites to take the NL West. Whether they can finally get over the hump and convert a postseason berth into a World Series trophy is the true question.
How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
How would you grade the Dodgers' offseason?
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B 42% (1,125)
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C 32% (870)
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A 11% (294)
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D 9% (236)
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F 6% (163)
Total votes: 2,688
10 Early-Season Breakout Relievers
The pitching arms race is in a fascinating place. There’s velocity everywhere you look. Pitch development and analysis has grown by leaps and bounds. Physical tools interact with tunneling and sequencing/location strategies. It’s an ever-changing landscape, leaving ample room for players to emerge — particularly in the relief realm, where a hurler may only be a tweak or two away from emerging as a dominant force. (The opposite also holds true.)
Let’s take a look around the league at some relief pitchers who have debuted or exhibited intriguing new performance levels in 2019 and consider which seem most likely to continue:
Nick Anderson, Marlins: When you’re a relief pitcher with a rebuilding club who turns 29 in the summer of your debut season, expectations just aren’t going to be all that high. A seemingly minor pre-Rule 5 trade acquisition, Anderson has taken off in Miami with 11 innings of 2.45 ERA pitching and a whopping 22 strikeouts on an 18.4% swinging-strike rate. He has only handed out two free passes, both of them intentional walks. The Twins would surely like a re-do on the decision to part with Anderson. (Their own late-blooming relief success story, Ryne Harper, doesn’t have nearly the shiny peripherals to support his useful showing thus far.)
Robert Stephenson, Reds: It was do-or-die time for the 26-year-old former top prospect, who’s out of options. He’s doing quite nicely thus far, with a 2.08 ERA and 12.5 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 13 innings of action. While the talent has never been in question, the results have never really been there for Stephenson. But he’s thriving in a pen role and showing that the stuff plays legitimately against MLB hitters, with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate. He’s leaning heavily on his slider (59.3%), mixing that primarily with a 94.9 mph fastball. It seems the tools are there for continued success.
Sam Gaviglio, Blue Jays: Sometimes, moving from the rotation to the pen results in a boost, and that seems to be the case here. All the arrows are pointing up for the righty as he closes in on his 29th birthday: K%-BB% (25.9%); swinging-strike rate (16.9%); groundball rate (54.3%). He still doesn’t throw hard, but he’s closer to 90 mph on average than ever before with his sinker. And in a relief capacity, Gaviglio has been able to go much more frequently to his slider (44.6%). With a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings, the results have followed.
Brandon Brennan, Mariners: 9.6 K/9 vs. 2.4 BB/9 and a 58.3% grounder rate? That’ll work. It’s a 15-inning sample, but an impressive one for a player who was plucked in the Rule 5 draft after signing a minor-league deal with another club. He’s carrying a hefty 16.3% swinging-strike rate while punishing opposing hitters with equal doses of a mid-nineties heater and evidently improved change. Seattle may well have a keeper in the 27-year-old righty.
Trevor Gott, Giants: After failing to turn the corner for several seasons with the Nats, Gott has finally seemed to get it in San Francisco. Through 13 innings he owns a 2.08 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Gone are the grounders that were once his greatest attribute; also missing so far are the homers that plagued him. Gott is now working primarily off of a four-seamer instead of a two-seamer, allowing him to nearly triple his swinging-strike rate from last year (5.6% to 14.2%).
Luke Jackson, Braves: Though he threw 91 1/3 innings with Atlanta over the prior two seasons, Jackson was bounced from the 40-man roster on several occasions and was never secure in a role. He may be on to something in 2019, though. He’s still handing out too many walks, but Jackson has also bumped his swing-and-miss capabilities (11.9 K/9, 15.0% SwStr%) by boosting his slider usage (52.2%) and drawing more chases out of the zone (41.1%). Most fascinating of all? Through 11 1/3 innings, Jackson is a groundball monster, with 21 of the 28 balls put in play against him classed as grounders. Average opponent launch angle? A smooth -5.6 degrees.
Connor Sadzeck, Mariners: While he got results in a brief stint last year with the Rangers, there were glaring walk issues. Sadzeck has righted the ship so far with his new organization, allowing one earned in eight frames with nine strikeouts and three walks. He’s going to his slider more than half the time and generating a solid 13.6% swinging-strike rate thus far. Most importantly, getting strikes on 60.0% of his first pitches has set Sadzeck up to continue limiting the free passes.
Nick Wittgren, Indians: In the bullpen game, you win some, you lose some. Miami parted with Wittgren after the 27-year-old turned in a solid but hardly overwhelming 2018 season. He seems to have found another gear in Cleveland, though it remains to be seen whether it’s sustainable. Wittgren has eleven strikeouts without a walk through eight innings and is carrying a 58.8% groundball rate — markers of dominance he has never previously hinted at. He’s throwing much the same pitches at much the same speeds and generating only an 8.4% swinging-strike rate, so it seems there may be some short-sample hijinks at play.
Ian Kennedy, Royals: The 34-year-old is a veritable rookie as a reliever, having spent the virtual entirety of his pro career to this point in a rotation. He’s finding new life as a pen piece, working to a 1.42 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 along with a 48.5% groundball rate over 12 2/3 frames. He hasn’t found new heights in the swing-and-miss department (10.3% is at, but not over, his career ceiling as a starter) but is working with newfound velocity (94.2 mph average four-seamer) and seems to have benefited from shelving his change in favor of his curve.
Jake Newberry, Royals: A much younger K.C. entrant takes the final spot (which could also have gone to newcomer Richard Lovelady or a few other contenders). Another hurler who is finding success with heavy slider usage, Newberry has boosted his swinging-strike rate from under ten percent last year to 15.8% in 2019. He’s rarely in the zone (31.5%) but has a 10:1 K/BB ratio over eight innings since he is getting first strikes three out of five times and having no problem convincing opposing batters to chase out of the zone (36.8%). The 24-year-old is inducing loads of fly balls, which could spell trouble if they begin to leave the yard. It’s a delicate balancing act that’ll be tough to sustain.
Honorable mention (or: “what about [player x]?!”):
Guys like Matt Barnes, Reyes Moronta, and Lou Trivino have had too much success in the past to be considered, even if they are making further strides. Marcus Walden and Ty Buttrey were closer cases given their thinner track records, but largely showed their current form last season. Nick Burdi might have been considered despite his ugly ERA but for his unfortunate recent injury. Wander Suero, Giovanny Gallegos, Adam Morgan, Daniel Stumpf, Luis Cessa, Buck Farmer, and Kyle Ryan are among the pitchers who have shown quality swinging-strike rates or other intriguing developments. But they all had less innings and/or greater warts than the players listed above. I’d almost certainly have given a spot to John Means, but he’s not being utilized as a traditional short reliever.
Minor-League Signees Seeing Significant MLB Action: Relief Pitchers
We recently explored the position players who earned big early-season roles after entering camp on minor-league deals. That’s no guarantee of continued success — or even ongoing opportunities. Some have already been dropped from their respective rosters. The same holds to an even greater extent in the ever-changing world of relief pitching.
Let’s have a look at the relievers who have already thrown at least six frames after settling for minors pacts over the offseasons …
- Nick Vincent, Giants: Perhaps we should stop being surprised by Vincent, who has mostly churned out quality results at the MLB level. He owns a 2.03 ERA through 13 1/3 innings with the Giants and is on track to hold onto a big-league job all season long — perhaps in a different city, if he’s dealt.
- Alex Wilson, Brewers: Another pitcher who struggled to find a job despite an established track record of solid innings, Wilson has not found success thus far in Milwaukee. He’s generating 10.6 K/9 but an untenable 6.6 BB/9 and 1.64 HR/9, leaving him with an unsightly 8.18 ERA.
- Ryne Harper, Twins: He’s carrying a 2.70 ERA through ten frames of action. While the peripherals don’t jump off of the page, it’s a solid start for a pitcher who waited a long time for a shot at the majors.
- Javy Guerra, Blue Jays: Though he was recently designated for assignment, Guerra was able to generate a dozen strikeouts in ten innings. He did that in spite of a middling 6.5% swinging-strike rate, however, and was drawing grounders just 28.0% of the time.
- Luis Avilan, Mets: The 29-year-old has generated very little soft contact to this point and has coughed up two long balls. That has left him with ten earned runs in his nine innings, though the Mets will likely allow him some leash to right the ship.
- Luke Bard, Angels: He was given a shot to open the season but was just optioned after 8 2/3 innings. Bard gave up three long balls in that span, but did show a 13.6% swinging-strike rate and managed to hold onto his 40-man spot for the time being.
- Jeanmar Gomez, Rangers: The veteran has solid K/BB numbers but has been tagged for a whopping .481 batting average on balls in play. He’s just not fooling anyone at the moment (6.3% SwStr%, 50.0% hard-hit rate).
- Francisco Liriano, Pirates: It has been a pleasing return to Pittsburgh for the southpaw, who’s getting strikeouts (12.3 per nine) and grounders (52.6%) to begin the season. The 35-year-old is also doling out a few too many free passes, as usual, but a 14.8% swinging-strike rate suggests that the ball is coming out of his hand well.
The Market Landscape For Gio Gonzalez
Gio Gonzalez‘s first trip through the free-agent process didn’t treat him well this winter, but being a free agent who’s already stretched out in mid-April — he threw 93 pitches in his last Triple-A start with the Yankees — should lead to more interest in the lefty. Clubs throughout the league might have been content to lean on internal options rather than promise a roster spot to Gonzalez over the winter, but injuries and poor performances early in the year have created an abundance of fits, and the market now has few remaining alternatives. Unlike fellow veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel, Gonzalez isn’t attached to a qualifying offer, and he’s pitched recently in a professional setting.
The asking price on Gonzalez isn’t known, but at this point, it’s difficult to imagine it’s especially exorbitant. Gonzalez settled for a minor league deal with the Yankees that came with a $3MM base rate and a hefty $300K per start in terms of incentives. At this point, a mid-range guarantee on a one-year deal that promises him a spot on a big league roster seems like it should be sufficient to sign Gonzalez, and any salary to which he agrees would be pro-rated to exclude the portion of the season that has already been played out anyhow. Put another way, signing Gonzalez to a one-year deal with a pro-rated $5MM base salary would mean adding roughly $4.3MM in spending through season’s end.
In yesterday’s MLBTR chat, it was a bit surprising to see the number of questions centering around Gonzalez. He’s a fine pitcher with an established track record, but the level of interest in him among our reader base was greater than it was at any point throughout the winter. That makes sense in mid-April, though. There are few legitimate upgrades on the free-agent market this time of year — Keuchel is a notable exception but has a much higher asking price — and teams are generally reluctant to make trades at this juncture of the season. If you’re a fan hoping to see your favorite team make even an incremental upgrade in the rotation, Gonzalez is quite possibly the best bet as far as someone who can be ready in short order. Given the general intrigue surrounding him, plus the fact that it’s April 23 and there are minimal transaction/hot stove-related storylines to monitor, the following is a way-too-in-depth look at where Gio Gonzalez could plausibly be expected to sign.
To kick things off, it seems unlikely that Gonzalez’s preference would be to sign with a non-contender. It’s true that Dan Straily recently did just that by signing with the Orioles, but he has a lesser track record and presumably faced a more limited market. Gonzalez has reportedly already drawn interest from a pair of contending clubs, and he likely wants to return to the postseason. It’d be a surprise to see him land with the Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Giants or White Sox. Clubs that entered the season unlikely to contend but have gotten off to solid starts, such as the Tigers, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Rangers, are all a bit likelier but still seem somewhat like long shots from here. There’s a case to be made for each of those clubs to take a look, and all have shown some willingness to spend at the levels it might take to land Gio, but a realistic assessment of their chances doesn’t really support an early-season investment.
Modest as Gonzalez’s asking price figures to be, not every team will rush to commit even a few million with the season underway. The Indians barely spent in free agency, and while they’ve lost Mike Clevinger for a couple months, they surely wouldn’t displace any of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer or Shane Bieber for Gonzalez. Pirates ownership is even more averse to spending, and Gonzalez doesn’t represent a clear upgrade over any of the current starting five (based on their early performances, anyhow).
The Cubs’ rotation is already expensive and performing well, and ownership set hard budgetary restrictions over the winter. The Red Sox are looking at 75 percent tax on any dollars spent, and they only expect Nathan Eovaldi to miss six weeks with his recent injury. They’re likely to stay in house.
Other teams are likely content with what they have in house. The Rays don’t have a set five-man rotation, but the trio of Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow is formidable. Yonny Chirinos is something between their fourth starter and the top followup arm to an opener, and the Tampa Bay organization seems content to continue on with that opener tactic rather than adding another conventional starter. The Nationals have the game’s most expensive top four and a respectable fifth starter in Jeremy Hellickson. The Phillies are a bit of a tight fit with Jerad Eickhoff back in action and Nick Pivetta still in the picture.
The Dodgers are already teeming with rotation options and have Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill back from injury. Out in Colorado, the Rox have finally found a homegrown slate of starters who’ve gotten the job done. Cincinnati has had success with its revamped rotation and will soon welcome Alex Wood back from the IL. The Braves have more young starting pitching options than any team in the game. Over in Houston, it’s tough to Gonzalez as a compelling upgrade, especially with some intriguing young arms stashed in the upper minors. Similarly, it seems doubtful that the Twins would pull the plug on their Martin Perez experiment after all of 12 innings.
More than half the teams in the league seem unlikely to represent a landing spot for Gonzalez, but there are plenty of viable on-paper fits in both the American League and the National League.
The Angels have again been hit hard by injuries, and Gonzalez could easily step in over Chris Stratton. Elsewhere in the division, Oakland’s injury woes date back to 2018, and offseason signee Marco Estrada has already seen his longstanding back issues flare up. De facto fifth starter Aaron Brooks has struggled, too. Perhaps the Mariners shouldn’t be taken as legitimate postseason contenders just yet, but they’re seven games over .500 with baseball’s second-bet run differential. Adding Gonzalez to deepen a rotation that currently contains rookie Erik Swanson and a perhaps fading Felix Hernandez would be a risk-free move that could help maintain their performance to date.
There are several National League contenders that arguably ought to take a hard look. The Padres’ bold plan to cycle through young starters is sure to have its ups and downs throughout a long season; plugging in a durable, well-established veteran holds obvious appeal. In the central division, the Brewers and Cardinals have both seen cracks form in their starting staffs to open the year. The Milwaukee organization, in particular, has a connection to Gonzalez and is already rumored to be in on him now. Also rumored to have interest are the Mets, who are surely thinking of replacing the struggling Jason Vargas.
It’s tough to anticipate any kind of bidding war here. But there are enough clear landing spots to think that Gonzalez may be able to push the price up a bit and command a MLB rotation gig right out of the gates.
Poll: Which Early-Season Surprises Are For Real?
As we approach the one-month mark of the young 2019 season, the MLB standings are starting to take shape, with fast starters trying to separate from the pack and rebuilding teams falling behind. With that said, the current slate of division leaders features some surprises. Notably, preseason favorites like the Yankees and Red Sox have encountered considerable adversity, while juggernauts like the Dodgers and Astros have thus far met expectations. Meanwhile, a number of teams that received less attention as potential contenders have found themselves climbing MLB’s rankings. Power surges in Seattle and Minnesota have carried the Mariners and Twins to the top of AL’s West and Central divisions, respectively. Elite run prevention in Pittsburgh has allowed the Pirates to flourish in the hyper-competitive NL Central. An injection of youthful energy has driven the Padres to within striking distance of the powerhouse Dodgers. Let’s examine these upstart clubs and look ahead to their outlook for the rest of the season.
The Mariners made headlines throughout the offseason, but often for the wrong reasons. General manager Jerry Dipoto spent the winter shipping off nearly every Major Leaguer with value, and now fields a team that only vaguely resembles the one that won 89 games in 2018. Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, and James Paxton were all dealt to the East Coast. Last season’s iteration of the Mariners was notorious for its unsustainable first-half performance, repeatedly winning one-run games, often thanks to the heroics of Edwin Diaz. In 2019, the story is of a different flavor, though skeptics may once again challenge the sustainability of April’s returns. This year’s team is slugging home runs at a historic rate, including a streak of 20 games in which the team hit at least one round-tripper. The 2019 Mariners have belted 56 home runs, 12 more than the next closest team, the Dodgers. Tim Beckham and Domingo Santana are churning out extra-base hits, and Mitch Haniger is rising to stardom. Still, the Astros are looming, and a spot in the AL Wild Card will not come easy, with sleeping giants in the AL East working through early adversity–to say nothing of the undeniable Rays.
In a division that has all the makings of a bloodbath, many might have counted out the Pirates after an uninspired offseason: whereas rivals’ offseasons were highlighted by flashy additions like Paul Goldschmidt, Yasiel Puig, and Yasmani Grandal, the Pirates were quiet in the winter, with names like Lonnie Chisenhall and Erik Gonzalez headlining the team’s moves. However, it has quickly become clear that the 12-7 Pirates boast one of the Majors’ best pitching staffs. Behind Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams has emerged as an automatic quality start every outing. Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove is showing off the dynamic stuff that made him the centerpiece in the Gerrit Cole trade, and Jordan Lyles has been a pleasant surprise to round out the rotation. Felipe Vazquez is dynamite in the late innings, and Richard Rodriguez showed promise last season as a high-leverage option, though the bullpen is somewhat shaky beyond that combination. On offense, things are less peachy, but Josh Bell is turning heads by coupling prodigious power with a keen batting eye. Again, the NL Central will provide no shortage of resistance, but a starting rotation of this caliber should keep the Pirates in more than their fair share of games.
With the last three seasons resembling a roller coaster ride, the Twins entered the offseason hoping to turn a corner. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine set out with essentially blank future payroll, capitalizing on that flexibility by bringing aboard veterans like Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jonathan Schoop to bolster a group of young position players that the Twins hope will be galvanized by rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. Jorge Polanco, fresh off a spring contract extension, has provided encouraging production from the shortstop position, and Eddie Rosario is blasting home runs at an impressive rate. Byron Buxton appears to have unlocked the potential that made him a top prospect, and Jose Berrios is entering bona fide ace territory. The pitching appears much improved from years’ past, with a bullpen headed by Taylor Rogers, who belongs in conversations with the league’s elite relief arms. This team may have the most attainable path to October baseball, playing in a weak division where their primary competition is the Indians, a team that has at times appeared vulnerable in 2019.
The Padres thrust themselves into the conversation for the postseason when general manager A.J. Preller and company added Manny Machado to the mix in a franchise-altering move. The team doubled down when the front office broke the mold by breaking camp with top prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack on the Opening Day roster. Those moves have paid massive dividends thus far, with Tatis forcing his way into the national spotlight, displaying a five-tool skillset. The club’s rotation of young outfielders is launching homers, and the anonymous bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball dating back to last season. Meanwhile, with a host of young starters comprising the rotation, the possibility of a Dallas Keuchel addition remains on the table–a move that would emphatically declare the Friars’ intention to make a postseason push. At the top of the NL West, the Dodgers represent a daunting giant to topple, and the rest of the National League features no shortage of contending teams, but the Padres’ spunk might lead to meaningful autumn baseball for the first time in nearly a decade.
While there are months of baseball left to play, trades to be made, injuries to work around, and breakouts to emerge, the games played in March and April are no less important than those in September. Early-season results can lay the groundwork for what’s to come. Which of the aforementioned blossoming clubs are best positioned to sustain their success and exceed expectations?
(Poll link for app users)
Which Early-Season Surprises Are For Real?
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Minnesota Twins 32% (6,351)
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San Diego Padres 27% (5,446)
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Seattle Mariners 25% (4,953)
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Pittsburgh Pirates 16% (3,080)
Total votes: 19,830
Minor-League Signees Seeing Significant MLB Action: Position Players
It’s really too soon to say which minor-league signees are going to turn out to be exceptional values. But we can assess which have earned significant roles out of the gates. Whether they’ll be called upon with such frequency the rest of the way will depend in no small part upon what they do with the initial opportunity.
Let’s start by looking at the 16 position players that signed minor-league deals and have accrued thirty or more plate appearances. It’s a list chock full of notable names:
Gerardo Parra, OF, Giants: The veteran is receiving heavy playing time, leading all minor-league signees with 63 plate appearances, but hasn’t yet justified it with his play. Parra carries only a .218/.302/.327 slash on the year. The roster spot could be at risk if the Giants ultimately find a better use for it, but the club needs decent veteran play in the outfield at the moment.
Jesus Sucre, C, Orioles: Sucre has been the Orioles’ primary option behind the dish, bringing his usual blend of weak offense and solid defense to the table. He’s hitting just .213/.260/.255 through 50 PAs while catching four of eight would-be base thieves. Chance Sisco may eventually unseat him, but Sucre is locked into a prominent role for now.
Hanley Ramirez, DH, Indians: One of the most interesting minor-league signees to watch, Ramirez has generated a healthy 14.0% walk rate but has otherwise done little else of note. It’ll be interesting to see how much patience the Cleveland organization shows.
Curtis Granderson, OF, Marlins: Trusted with a big role, the respected veteran is struggling at the plate (.149/.268/.298). But the Marlins need a few players of this type and surely won’t be in any rush to push him off of the MLB roster.
Melky Cabrera, OF, Pirates: Thrust into an unexpectedly robust role, the Melk Man has delivered with his typically high-contact approach. He’s sporting a BABIP-driven .367/.392/.490 slash through 51 trips to the plate. The Bucs will reevaluate as time goes on and they welcome back some injured players, but Cabrera now has a path to a job all season long.
Logan Forsythe, INF, Rangers: After a few lost seasons, Forsythe settled for a minors pact and has settled in nicely in Texas. He has rediscovered his ability to play short from time to time and exhibited a revamped mastery of the strike zone thus far in 2019. The odds seem pretty solid that Forsythe will continue to hold down a roster spot with the Rangers.
Mark Reynolds, 1B, Rockies: Reynolds is walking more than ever and showing typically strong pop, but still isn’t anything close a league-average producer (83 wRC+) owing to his lagging batting average (.206) and adjustment for hitting at Coors. Odds are the Rox will continue to carry Reynolds as a bench bat and part-time first baseman, though it’s possible the calculus could change once the club’s at full health.
Yangervis Solarte, UTIL, Giants: The 31-year-old is being asked to move around the diamond, but he’ll soon be out of opportunities if he doesn’t get things going at the plate. He’s slashing a meager .200/.256/.300 through 44 plate appearances.
Jose Iglesias, INF, Reds: With Jose Peraza off to a dreadful start, Iglesias is receiving a bigger slice of the playing time pie. He’s not hitting a ton but remains one of the game’s most gifted infield defenders.
Derek Dietrich, INF, Reds: Another player that surprisingly failed to get a MLB deal and landed in Cincinnati, Dietrich is mashing thus far — albeit in a lopsided fashion. He’s carrying only a .200 batting average and .300 OBP but has launched four long balls and owns a hefty .629 slugging percentage.
Brad Miller, INF Indians: Though he was one of the team’s few solid offensive performers in the early going, Miller was jettisoned recently to make way for the return of Jason Kipnis. That sudden change of direction is a good indication of the uncertainty faced by players in this situation.
Lucas Duda, 1B, Royals: Though it’s still hard to understand why the Royals have set up their roster with so many defensively limited players, the veteran slugger is performing at the plate. Duda’s power is down some but he’s walking more than he’s striking out thus far. Barring a change in organizational philosophy, it seems he’ll continue in his role.
JB Shuck, OF, Pirates: As injuries mounted, the door opened wider in Pittsburgh. Shuck has responded with a .259/.429/.333 slash in 36 plate appearances to begin the season. That’s a nice development for him, but he’ll have to show quite a bit more to stave off an eventual roster cut.
Hunter Pence, OF, Rangers: Another veteran keeper in Texas, Pence has carried a middling .276/.323/.379 batting line to begin his comeback bid. He’s probably got some leash as a highly respected veteran but will ultimately need to show some life to stay on the MLB roster.
Nick Hundley, C, Athletics: He’s not hitting at all, but Hundley is a respected veteran receiver. The A’s could in theory make a change at just about any time but the club doesn’t have any other catchers in the organization with substantial MLB experience — at least until Chris Herrmann is back to health.
Peter Bourjos, OF, Angels: Already slated for a fourth outfielder job, Bourjos was thrust into a large role when Justin Upton went down. But he’s off to a wretched beginning of the year and is now firmly in danger of being dropped by the Halos.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Albies, Rays, Heyward
Click here to read the transcript of today’s chat with Tim Dierkes.
MLBTR Originals
Rounding up this week’s content from the MLBTR staff…
- We are nearing the end of MLBTR’s Offseason In Review Series, capping baseball’s long offseason with a retrospective on each team’s winter journey. This week the Yankees’, Indians’, and Reds’ offseason reports hit the MLBTR wire. Keep an eye out as this annual series wraps up shortly with the Dodgers’ 2018-2019 winter review.
- Connor Byrne polled MLBTR readers about the presumptive contenders who have disappointed thus far in 2019. MLBTR readers were generally bullish on the Red Sox and Yankees, while there was less confidence in the Rockies and Cubs chances of rebounding.
- Meanwhile, the baseball calendar waits for no one, so make sure to check out a status report on every 2018 Rule 5 draft pick, and a preview of opt-out decisions looming before the 2020 season.
- And of course, don’t forget to come chat with the MLBTR staff: Steve on Monday, Tim on Tuesday, Jeff on Thursday, while Mark Polishuk held his usual Sunday night chat on Saturday this week.
Poll: Slow-Starting Playoff Contenders
The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Rockies were among the majors’ most successful clubs in 2018, when the quartet comprised 40 percent of the league’s playoff bracket. No one was better than the Red Sox, who rolled to 108 regular-season wins before steamrolling the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers in the postseason en route to their latest World Series title. The Yankees, despite their loss to archrival Boston, enjoyed a more-than-respectable year in which they notched 100 victories. And Colorado knocked out Chicago in the National League wild-card game, a battle of two 90-plus-win teams, before succumbing to Milwaukee in the divisional round.
Given the excellence those clubs displayed last year, it would have been fair to expect each of them to earn playoff berths again in 2019. Instead, while we’re just a couple weeks into the season, all of those teams have tripped out of the starting block, having combined for 19 wins in 58 games. They’re the only members of last year’s playoff field that are under .500 at this point.
Boston, whose roster is almost the same as its title-winning version (sans relievers Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly), dropped a game to the lowly Orioles on Saturday. Fifteen contests into the season, the Red Sox have already lost 10 times – something they didn’t do until Game 35 a year ago. Neither their all-world offense nor their high-end pitching staff from 2018 have come close to replicating those performances thus far, and questions have swirled around ace Chris Sale. Signed to a five-year, $145MM extension before the season, Sale’s velocity – which began dropping amid an injury-limited 2018 – has continued to plummet. Unsurprisingly, the 30-year-old’s effectiveness has waned as his fastball has lost power. Not only has Sale allowed an earned run per inning across 13 frames, but one of baseball’s all-time strikeout artists has fanned just eight batters.
Maybe Sale is battling a physical issue, but the Yankees are dealing with plenty of their own. Eleven of their players, including standouts Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks and Dellin Betances are on the IL. The majority of that group won’t be back in the near future – or perhaps until 2020 in the case of Andujar – while Severino, Gregorius, Hicks and Betances haven’t suited up yet this year. With so many integral contributors unavailable, the Yankees have started 6-8. That would be less concerning if not for their inability to capitalize on an easy early season schedule. The Yankees have played 11 games against the Orioles, Tigers and White Sox, all of whom are regarded as bottom feeders, and only won six of those matchups. The AL East rival Rays (11-4) have taken advantage, evidenced by their 4.5-game lead on New York and their six-game edge over Boston.
Over in the NL, the Cubs – on the heels of a widely panned offseason – have sputtered to a 5-9 showing and a four-game deficit in the Central, which could be one of the majors’ most competitive divisions. Although cornerstone hitters Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber haven’t resembled their best selves, the Cubs’ offense has still done well statistically. Their pitching has been abysmal, on the other hand. Yu Darvish, who’s in Year 2 of a huge contract, continues to perform nothing like the pitcher he was pre-Chicago, while the bullpen the Cubs did little to bolster over the winter has looked predictably vulnerable.
Speaking of vulnerable, the Rockies have christened their season with the majors’ worst record (3-12) and its last-ranked run differential (minus-36). If the Rockies are going to overcome their horrific start to pick up their third straight playoff appearance, they’ll need far more from their position players. Their hitters have put together a woeful 37 wRC+ and minus-2.6 fWAR, both of which easily rank last in the game. Injuries have played a part, as regulars David Dahl, Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon are all on the IL. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ primary offensive catalysts – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon – have all been duds so far. Those three won’t stay down forever, though, and Colorado’s starting staff also has the talent to rebound from its early season mediocrity. But the Rockies can’t afford to let this skid continue to fester, especially considering they’re stuck in a division with the perennial champion Dodgers. Realistically, it’s wild card or bust for the Rockies, but rallying to steal one of those two spots in a crowded NL won’t be easy.
While it would be unwise to panic on April 13, there are more reasons for concern than expected in all of these teams’ cases. Then again, the same was said last year about the Dodgers, who began 16-26 on their way to 92 wins and another pennant. The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Rockies can take solace in that, perhaps, but do you believe any of them are already in serious trouble?
(poll link for app users)
Are any of these slow starters in real trouble?
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Rockies 26% (3,683)
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Cubs 25% (3,529)
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No, it's too early 20% (2,822)
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Red Sox 19% (2,687)
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Yankees 11% (1,508)
Total votes: 14,229
Previewing 2019-20’s Opt-Out Clause Decisions
Some few contracts include provisions giving the player control over one or more seasons by affording the chance to opt out of the remainder of the deal. Take the bird in hand or see how many you can net from the free-agent bush? Market changes have impacted the math for some players, but the open market still has riches to offer. We don’t know how things will look for any given player at season’s end, but here’s how it’s shaping up at the outset of the 2019 campaign:
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: The 2016-17 version of Andrus — and the one we saw through the season’s first two weeks in 2018 — looked every bit like a player who would exercise the first of two opt-out clauses in his contract (which came at the end of the 2018 season). From Opening Day 2016 through April 11 last year, Andrus posted a terrific .301/.352/.459 batting line with 30 homers, 78 doubles, 11 triples and 49 steals through 1318 plate appearances. Paired with his glovework at shortstop, he looked very capable of topping the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow fracture, missed two months, and returned to hit only .245/.289/.347 in his final 367 plate appearances. An offseason of rest looks to have done him some good, as he’s hitting .380/.392/.500 through 51 PAs. Unlike several players on this list, there’s an actual chance that Andrus could test the open market, though free agency hasn’t been kind to players on the wrong side of 30 in recent years.
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Arrieta’s first season with the Phils was solid, if unremarkable. He tallied 172 2/3 innings and gave the team a 3.96 ERA with fielding-independent metrics that didn’t stray too far from that ERA (4.26 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA). The former Cy Young winner’s velocity is down a couple miles per hour from its peak levels, and while Arrieta showed good control and ground-ball tendencies in 2018, he no longer appears to be a strikeout pitcher. Given that he’ll pitch next season at age 34, it doesn’t seem all that likely that the Phillies will sign up to tack on another pair of $20MM seasons. With a strong 2019 effort, it’s possible that Arrieta positions himself to land a two-year deal with a larger guarantee but lower annual rate (e.g. two years, $30MM), so it’s not out of the question that he’d opt out at season’s end, even if seems unlikely at present.
Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish’s first season in Chicago was an unmitigated disaster, as a series of arm injuries limited him to just 40 innings of work. His velocity isn’t where it was in previous seasons, and in this season’s small sample of three starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s punched out. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which Darvish opts out of his contract; even if he stormed back to ace status and won an NL Cy Young Award, I’m not sure he’d top $81MM as a 33-year-old free agent with a qualifying offer hanging over his head. The Cubs appear stuck with the contract and will need to simply hope for a rebound.
Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward has had a scalding hot start to the season, mashing at a .351/.444/.676 pace. Through 45 plate appearances, he’s already halfway to his home run total from a 2018 season in which he came to he plate 489 times. Even if Heyward’s bat proves to be rejuvenated to its 2015 levels, however, it’s virtually unfathomable that he’d walk away from the remaining $86MM on this contract. His poor results in his first three seasons with the Cubs still loom large enough that a monster year at the dish would be met with a heavy dose of skepticism, and he’ll turn 30 in August.
Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: After seven seasons as a near-unstoppable force in the Dodgers’ bullpen, Jansen looked mortal in 2018 when he logged a 3.01 ERA (his first time ever topping 3.00) and 10.3 K/9 (his first time south of 13.0). A strong enough rebound campaign could embolden Jansen to seek out a three-year deal at a lower annual salary than the $19MM remaining on his contract; the Rockies gave Wade Davis a total of $52MM for the same three-year age span that Jansen will be entering (32-34). He’s already rejected one qualifying offer in his career, so he wouldn’t be eligible to receive a second one (even though he landed with the same team that winter).
J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: The general expectation in the 2017-18 offseason was that Martinez’s 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 45 home runs) would be a peak year. Instead, he turned in an arguably even more productive 2018 season with the Red Sox, hitting a ridiculous .330/.402/.629 with 43 home runs in 649 PAs — the second-highest total of his career. Martinez is off to another strong start in 2019, and despite a frosty climate for free agents, one can only wonder if he’d be tempted to once again test free agency if he can post a third consecutive season of 40-plus homers with an OPS north of 1.000. One wrinkle to consider is that barring an unexpected midseason trade, Martinez would have a qualifying offer attached to him this time around; that wasn’t true of his last trip through free agency, as he’d been traded from Detroit to Arizona midseason.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: Strasburg is still a strikeout machine who posts big totals in swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates, but his 93.1 mph average fastball in 2019 is well south of last year’s 94.5 mph (to say nothing of his career 95.3). The former No. 1 pick was a big part of the Nats’ rotation in 2018 and should be again this year, but he was more good than great last year (130 innings, 3.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 43.6 GB%). Moreover, Darvish and a much younger Patrick Corbin are the only two pitchers who have topped $100MM in guarantees over the past two offseasons. Strasburg would be hit with a qualifying offer if he opted out, and he’d be betting against recent trends as a 31-year-old pitcher looking to cash in on a nine-figure contract. He can ask Dallas Keuchel how well that strategy works.