MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

Every spring, MLBTR publishes a league-wide list of players who are out of minor league options. Those players, who by rule cannot be sent to the minors without first clearing outright waivers, are always worth watching with a close eye as Spring Training draws to a close, given the likelihood that a notable percentage of the list will either be traded or run through waivers prior to Opening Day. This year, 27 of those players have either changed organizations or been removed from the 40-man roster (in some cases, both) since the list’s publication — 17 in Spring Training and another 10 during the regular season. But even for those who dodge that DFA hammer, there’s little in the way of guarantees moving forward.

That’s all the more true for players on teams playing to win in 2019. A rebuilding club can afford to be more lenient with an out-of-options player in hopes that he eventually finds a rhythm and proves capable of helping down the line. The Royals surely aren’t thrilled that Jorge Lopez has an ERA north of 6.00 dating back to his acquisition last summer, but they need all the pitching they can get and Lopez was one of the pieces they received in the Mike Moustakas swap. For now, Kansas City will quite likely continue to give him chances, taking a bigger-picture approach as the club sits 12 games under .500.

A team like the Mets, however, is in a different situation. New York is in its first season under  a new general manager and in year two of Mickey Callaway’s tenure as manager. Ownership opted to go way outside the box in hiring former agent Brodie Van Wagenen as the GM, and he responded with a series of headline-grabbing moves aimed at getting the Mets back to contention. One of his smaller moves was to pick up out-of-options outfielder Keon Broxton from the Brewers in a trade that sent three players to Milwaukee. Now, with Broxton hitting .152/.220/.174 through 50 plate appearances in a backup outfield role, they’re faced with a tough decision. As Newsday’s Tim Healey points out, with Jed Lowrie‘s return imminent, Broxton could be in jeopardy of losing his place on the roster.

The Astros don’t have such immediate pressure to make a roster move due a to player’s impending return, but they’re nevertheless eventually going to be forced to make a decision on a few out-of-options role players. None of Tony Kemp, Tyler White or Max Stassi is hitting much at the moment, and none of the bunch can be sent down to the minors.

As a backup catcher with a strong defensive reputation, Stassi could avoid any sort of roster crunch, and White is at least getting on base even if his power has curiously evaporated (.259/.362/.328 in 69 PAs). Kemp, though, is hitting just .188/.259/.313 in 55 plate appearances. Houston is winning plenty of games as it is, but they also have one of the game’s best offensive prospects, Yordan Alvarez, raking at a ridiculous .391/.481/.873 clip in Triple-A. Alvarez, a first baseman/outfielder, has 14 homers through his first 129 PAs this season. At some point, something will probably have to give. There’s an argument that Alvarez should already be in line for the lion’s share of at-bats at DH, with White sliding to the bench and Kemp perhaps being squeezed out.

Over in Minnesota, the Twins have stormed out to Major League Baseball’s best record — just as we all predicted, right? — while receiving a lowly .128/.222/.191 batting line from light-hitting utilityman Ehire Adrianza through 55 plate appearances. Miguel Sano has been out all season but is currently out on a minor league rehab assignment, and Minnesota’s offseason addition of Marwin Gonzalez made Adrianza somewhat redundant. While Gonzalez himself got out to a slow start, he’s showing signs of life after missing a chunk of Spring Training (.289/.386/.395 over his past 11 games). Minnesota may have delayed another such decision by putting struggling left-hander Adalberto Mejia (11 runs, 11 hits, nine walks, 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings) on the 10-day injured list, but the Twins already cut ties with one out-of-options player by flipping Tyler Austin to the Giants. When Mejia returns, he’ll need to show some quick improvement.

The Athletics are facing one of the most difficult situations at present, having traded two players, international bonus money and a Competitive Balance draft pick to acquire Jurickson Profar this offseason. Oakland had hoped to land a potential infield multi-year infield option at a below-market salary but instead has seen Profar flounder both offensively and defensively; he’s hitting just .192/.250/.336 with eight errors (seven of the throwing variety) plus some additional questionable throws to first base. Franklin Barreto isn’t doing anything in Triple-A to force the issue, hitting just .216/.350/.363 in the Las Vegas/Pacific Coast League launching pad, but 23-year-old Jorge Mateo has hit .340/.378/.578 so far in Vegas. Given what the A’s surrendered to acquire Profar, he’s probably not in jeopardy of losing his roster spot. But if he doesn’t turn things around, the team will eventually reduce his role.

Elsewhere on the Oakland roster, right-hander Aaron Brooks opened the year as the fifth starter, but he’s been tattooed for a 5.74 ERA and eight home runs in just 31 1/3 innings of work. The Athletics’ rotation is dealing with plenty of injuries, most dating back to 2018, but the nearer those arms come to activation, the more his role comes into question. The A’s already have several healthy alternatives in Triple-A who are already on the 40-man roster, plus another who is not, in the form of Edwin Jackson. Eventually, the returns of Jharel Cotton, A.J. Puk and perhaps even Sean Manaea will impact the rotation, but there’s no guarantee Brooks will be a part of it by then.

The Diamondbacks entered the season looking like a team in transition but now find themselves in second place as others in the NL West (namely the Rockies) have struggled to unexpected levels. Arizona is five games over .500 and has already begun to act on its out-of-options players, designating Matt Koch for assignment and yanking Zack Godley from the rotation in favor of a bullpen role to get him sorted out. The D-backs love John Ryan Murphy‘s glove and seem committed to carrying him even if it means rostering three catchers (although Alex Avila is injured at the moment), but Murphy will need to give them more than the .167/.245/.375 output and 41.5 percent strikeout rate he’s produced so far.

The Indians may have a similar view of Kevin Plawecki and his .167/.302/.333 line, particularly because their other catcher, Roberto Perez, is unlikely to ever provide much offense. Cleveland is struggling immensely at the moment, due largely to one of the game’s most feeble lineups. Eric Haase has nine homers in 100 PAs in Triple-A, but he’s also struck out 32 times and has an overall inferior Triple-A track record to that of Plawecki himself. Still, if the two continue at their current paces, it’ll be difficult not to contemplate a switch.

Looking around the league at the game’s most volatile assets, there’s a strangely large number of relievers on hopeful contenders who have averaged nearly a walk per inning pitched. Jesse Biddle (Braves), Chaz Roe (Rays) and Luis Garcia (Angels) all have ERAs of 3.38 or better, but each has also notched at least a 7.1 BB/9 mark on the young season. Seattle’s Zac Rosscup is in the same boat, though perhaps even more than the D-backs, it’s debatable whether the Mariners are a win-now club — particularly in light of a recent slump that has relegated them to just one game over .500.

Other win-now clubs have had their own share of poor bullpen performances from players who can’t be optioned, with the Nationals (Matt Grace), Indians (Neil Ramirez, Tyler Olson) and Phillies (Jose Alvarez) all experiencing relief issues. The Phils and Rays have moved on from one out-of-options player apiece recently in the form of Aaron Altherr‘s DFA and Wilmer Font‘s trade, and as leaders in tight divisional races, they have less cause to be patient than other clubs. For that matter, Font’s place on the Mets is hardly etched in stone, though injuries elsewhere on the staff  (Jason Vargas, Jeurys Familia) may create a chance for him to prove himself.

A team’s level of patience is key in any evaluation of an out-of-options player, of course, and that tolerance will always be somewhat context-dependent. The Astros are the runaway favorites in the AL West, so they can afford to exercise more patience with minimal fear of missing the playoffs or even of finding themselves in a one-game Wild Card showdown. The track record of the player in question also comes into play; the Brewers were expecting more from Jesus Aguilar than he’s shown so far, but he’s a 2018 All-Star who mashed 35 home runs a year ago and has maintained an excellent batted-ball profile while actually improving upon his K/BB numbers. A rebound seems likely, and last year’s excellence gives him more of leash than others in his situation would have.

There’s still plenty of season left, but clubs are approaching the 25 percent mark of the 2019 campaign, and mid-May to early June is frequently a time when we begin to see teams make notable changes to initial roster constructions that haven’t paid dividends. Within the next few weeks, several of these scenarios will likely lead to some degree of roster turnover.

Those changes can have far-reaching effects beyond the team making the actual change, as well. Players like Brad Hand, Kirby Yates and the aforementioned Aguilar were all out-of-options castoffs before rising to prominence in new environs. That’s a rare, best-case outcome scenario but one that underscores the ripple effect that even minor transactions can have on a team’s long-term outlook.

Most fans don’t get too excited when their favorite teams picks up a player who’d been recently designated for assignment by another organization. There’s the occasional C.J. Cron-style exception, where a player is designated in what amounts to a salary dump, but more often than not, a player is designated for assignment after failing to take advantage of opportunities or failing to force his way up to the majors. Trades of such players rarely offer much in the way of return value, but the minimal cost of acquisition makes it all the sweeter when those speculative additions actually pan out.

It’s still relatively early in the season, but it’s not early in the season. Roughly 20 percent of the year’s games are in the books at this point, and a look around the league reveals a handful of recently designated players who were traded to another club for a negligible return, only to thrive — initially, at least — in their new surroundings. It’s probably safe to say that the original organization in each of these swaps would take a mulligan on the decision, if possible:

Dwight Smith Jr., OF, Orioles (acquired from Blue Jays): The Orioles acquired Smith Jr. from the division-rival Blue Jays in Spring Training, sending international bonus space to Toronto in return. The O’s were widely panned for years due to owner Peter Angelos’s refusal to spend on the international market, which often prompted former baseball ops leader Dan Duquette and his staff to trade away international funds for what proved to be minimal prospect returns (or as a means of dumping salary). This trade of international dollars, however, at least gave the O’s an MLB-ready player to plug into a questionable outfield mix, and Smith has made the team look outstanding. He’s hitting .292/.347/.496 with five homers, eight doubles and three steals through 124 plate appearances. He’s fanned at only a 16.9 percent clip thus far, and while his success in limited at-bats against lefties may be BABIP-driven, his overall .318 average on balls in play doesn’t look especially fluky. The Orioles have also done well on waiver claims for Pedro Severino and Hanser Alberto, but Smith looks to be their best DFA pickup since GM Mike Elias took over he club.

Nick Wittgren, RHP, Indians (acquired from Marlins): The sample size with relievers, this early in the season, is always going to be dubious, but it’s hard not to be impressed by Wittgren’s 14-to-1 K/BB ratio and one run allowed in 10 1/3 innings of bullpen work. The 27-year-old is relying more heavily on his four-seamer and curveball so far, and his opponents’ expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .224, as measured by Statcast, ranks in the 96th percentile of MLB pitchers. A few shaky outings can obviously torpedo any reliever’s numbers, but Wittgren was a surprise DFA at the time, and it looks all the more puzzling that the Marlins opted to boot him from the 40-man roster. Right-hander Jordan Milbrath, whom the Marlins acquired in return, has thrown well in 12 1/3 minor league innings this season, but he’s only two months younger than Wittgren and is pitching in Double-A.

Trevor Gott, RHP, Giants (acquired from Nationals): San Francisco picked up Gott in a trade that sent nothing more than cash to the Nationals, and he’s rewarded them with 16 innings of 1.69 ERA ball and a 17-to-3 K/BB ratio. Gott’s 95 mph heater is every bit as fast as it was with the Nats, but he’s significantly cut back on the usage of his sinker in favor of a true four-seamer. His ground-ball rate is down, as one would expect, but the overall results are nothing short of excellent. His success in San Francisco stings that much more for the Nationals given their second straight season of early bullpen implosions.

Connor Sadzeck, RHP, Mariners (acquired from Rangers): Sadzeck chucked fire with the Rangers just as he’s doing with his new club, but the Texas organization couldn’t find a way to keep the 6’7″, 240-pounder in the strike zone. Whether the Mariners will be able to do so for the long haul remains to be seen, but Sadzeck has just four walks against 13 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings with the Mariners, and his 96.8 mph average heater is right in line with last year’s overall 97 mph average. Sadzeck’s first-pitch strike rate is up eight percent from last season, and the rate at which hitters make contact on his out-of-zone pitches has plummeted from 66.7 percent to 43.5 percent. Sadzeck threw only 9 1/3 innings in the Majors last year, so all of this is reading a lot into tiny samples of data, but so far, the Sadzeck swap looks great for the Mariners. Texas picked up righty Grant Anderson, the Mariners’ 21st-round pick last year, in return. He’s pitched 13 solid innings in Class-A ball but isn’t facing advanced competition relative to his age.

Tom Murphy, C, Mariners (acquired from Giants): The Giants only had Murphy briefly, as they claimed him off waivers from the Rockies and then promptly traded him to Seattle for 20-year-old righty Jesus Ozoria. Murphy has hit well in the nine games he’s logged with the Mariners, but if there’s anyone on this list whose success is especially worth taking with a grain of salt, it’s his. He’s punched out 13 times in 33 PAs, and we have a few years worth of data at the big league level to suggest that Murphy struggles against big league pitching. Still, he’s a former Top 100 prospect who has a productive history in Triple-A, and Seattle acquired him at minimal cost. It’s at least worth keeping an eye on him over the course of the season to see how things go; the Giants have been cycling through veteran catchers left and right, while the Rockies haven’t received any offense from behind the plate in several years.

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As emphasized throughout, there’s plenty of time for any of these swaps to turn into afterthoughts, but the early success of each player in question makes him more intriguing to follow than most players involved in relatively minor DFA trades. Any organization needs to have success in the draft, in free agency (both domestic and international) and in larger-scale trades in order to put together a winning roster, but a diamond in the rough or two along the way can certainly help to expedite the process.

Of the 278 major leaguers who racked up at least 300 plate appearances last season, FanGraphs assigned negative wins above replacement marks to 28. Most of those players are back in action this year, and with the season now a month old, we’ll focus on the 10 active major leaguers who posted the lowest fWARs in 2018. As you’ll see below, a few look to be enjoying nice rebound campaigns.

Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles (2018 fWAR: minus-3.1):

By now, everyone who follows baseball knows about Davis’ stark drop-off. He has devolved from one of the game’s fiercest sluggers a few years ago to an easy out nowadays. Davis was abysmal last season and has been similarly woeful across 71 plate appearances this year, evidenced by a .158/.239/.344 line and a 38 percent strikeout rate. The 33-year-old went from Sept. 14 of last season to April 15 of the current campaign without recording a hit – a record 54-AB drought. Davis has been better since he broke that skid, but that’s not saying much. The Orioles will pay him through 2037 on the $161MM contract he signed in January 2016 as an imposing offensive presence.

Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals (2018 fWAR: minus-1.2):

Now in the third season of a five-year, $82.5MM contract, Fowler has come back strong from an injury- and depression-marred 2018. The switch-hitting 33-year-old has reverted to his halcyon days with a .316/.419/.430 slash in 93 PA, albeit with little power (one HR, .114 ISO) and a sure-to-fall .414 batting average on balls in play. For now, though, it’s a great comeback story.

Yangervis Solarte, INF/OF, Giants (2018 fWAR: minus-1.3):

For the most part, Solarte was a decent producer with the Yankees and Padres from 2014-17. The switch hitter nosedived as a Blue Jay last year, though, which forced him to sign a minor league deal with the Giants this past offseason. While the 31-year-old did crack San Francisco’s talent-deprived roster, he hasn’t been part of the solution to this point. Thus far, Solarte has batted a career-worst .218/.271/.345 in 60 trips to the plate.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Marlins (2018 fWAR: minus-1.0):

Brinson was the centerpiece of the Marlins’ return for outfielder Christian Yelich, whom they traded to the Brewers in January 2018. At that point, Brinson was a top prospect and Yelich an underrated star. Yelich is no longer flying under the radar, having blossomed into an MVP-winning force as a Brewer, which is all the more unfortunate for the Marlins given Brinson’s lack of progress. Set to turn 25 next month, Brinson has been awful in a Miami uniform. He’s off to a .192/.244/.260 start with no homers and a 34.1 percent strikeout rate against a 2.4 percent walk mark in 82 PA this season.

Hunter Dozier, 3B/1B/OF, Royals (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Dozier has seemingly morphed from one of the majors’ worst players to one of its best. The 27-year-old entered Sunday fourth in the game in wRC+ (197), fifth in fWAR (1.6) and ninth in isolated power (.363), owing to an incredible .349/.444/.699 line with seven HRs in 99 PA. Dozier’s also walking and striking out at praiseworthy clips (14.1 and 18.2 percent, respectively) and barely chasing pitches outside the strike zone. His swings have led to a .474 weighted on-base average, which sits fifth in the league. Both that and Dozier’s .373 BABIP will regress, though his .431 xwOBA hardly suggests his performance is driven by luck. The Royals just might have an offensive star on their hands in Dozier, which is what they envisioned when they drafted him eighth overall in 2013.

Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, Mariners (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Healy was a terrific producer as an Athletic in 2016, his rookie season, but an unrepeatable BABIP and a low walk rate indicated his 132 wRC+ was largely the product of good fortune. Indeed, Healy’s output plummeted from 2017-18 as an Athletic and Mariner. He has come out of the gates in respectable fashion this year as a fill-in for injured third baseman Kyle Seager, though, with a .232/.302/.473 line and five HRs in 126 PA. Healy’s BABIP is just .244 – down 108 points from his rookie season – and he’s easily running career-best walk and out-of-zone swing percentages (8.7, 25.9). But his xwOBA is still a below-average .314, which lands shy of a .332 wOBA that’s not particularly menacing in its own right.

Chris Owings, INF/OF, Royals (2018 fWAR: minus-0.8):

Last season was no banner year for Owings, but that didn’t stop the Royals from guaranteeing the ex-Diamondback $3MM in free agency. The return on investment hasn’t been there so far, as the 27-year-old has stumbled to an unsightly .163/.230/.283 line with minus-0.3 fWAR in 100 trips to the plate.

Ian Desmond, OF/1B, Rockies (2018 fWAR: minus-0.7):

Desmond was effective as a National and Ranger from 2009-16, when he spent his time at shortstop and in center field. For some reason, the Rockies gave him $70MM in December 2016 to play first base. The deal didn’t work out at all over its first two years, which helped convince the Rockies to shift Desmond back to center this season. That hasn’t gone well either. After putting up minus-1.5 fWAR in Colorado from 2017-18, he’s already at minus-0.8 through 92 PA in 2019, thanks to a .198/.239/.349 line. To his credit, Desmond has greatly increased his fly balls/line drives and decreased his grounders this season, and his xwOBA (.278) is leagues better than his wOBA (.219). However, none of that is to say the 33-year-old is verging on of any kind of renaissance.

Tim Beckham, SS, Mariners (2018 fWAR: minus-0.5):

Beckham joins Dozier as another potential late-blooming former first-round pick on this list. While Beckham went first overall to the Rays in the 2008 draft, he seldom lived up to the billing with them or the Orioles from 2013-18. Beckham was downright bad in 2018, which led him to accept a cheap deal with the Mariners in the offseason. Now, he’s a .286/.359/.533 hitter with six long balls in 117 attempts. Neither Beckham’s .375 BABIP nor 27.3 percent HR-to-fly ball rate will stick, but the 29-year-old has made real strides in the plate discipline department. He’s walking at a career-high clip and swinging at far fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in prior seasons.

James McCann, C, White Sox (2018 fWAR: minus-0.5):

Like Beckham, McCann had to say yes to a prove-it deal in the offseason after a 2018 to forget.  It’s working out so far for Chicago, which has seen the former Tiger slash .333/.382/.490 in 55 trips to the plate and earn plus marks as a defender. McCann, 28, is yet another player who’s walking more than ever and swinging less outside the zone. His .405 BABIP certainly won’t hold, but the .354 xwOBA is more than acceptable for a catcher.