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Camp Battles: Seattle Mariners

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Ever-active Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has surrounded his team’s core with a bevy of platoon players and optionable arms this winter. Though only three areas appear ripe for real competition, there are a variety of configurations and playing-time arrangements that remain possible.

Here are Seattle’s ongoing camp battles; click here for previous entries in MLBTR’s Camp Battles series.

FIRST BASE
Dan Vogelbach
Age: 24
Bats: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

Danny Valencia
Age: 32
Bats: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $5.5MM 
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

D.J. Peterson
Age: 25
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 or ’23 season
Options remaining: 3

It’s all but certain that Vogelbach and Valencia will combine to make up a first base duo to open the 2017 season. (Can someone craft a nickname for that combo?) But the precise mix of playing time is still in the air as camp gets underway.

The youthful Vogelbach, acquired in the deal that sent Mike Montgomery to the Cubs, has only seen 13 MLB plate appearances. But he raked last year at Triple-A, posting an outstanding .292/.417/.505 batting line over 563 plate appearances with 23 long balls and an impressive 97 walks to go with his 101 strikeouts. Beyond proving that he can translate that to the majors, Vogelbach will need to polish his glovework at first.

While Seattle surely hopes that Vogelbach hits enough to push Valencia into a reduced role — the veteran is also capable of playing third base and the corner outfield — there’s reason to believe that the 32-year-old could take over primary duties himself. Since the start of the 2013 season, Valencia owns a productive .284/.334/.464 slash in 1,349 trips to the plate. Of course, he has also posted rather dramatic splits over his career, with a robust .873 OPS against lefties and a less-than-impressive .682 mark when hitting without the platoon advantage.

Peterson, who just turned 25, would be a surprise on the Opening Day roster — barring injury, at least — but perhaps there’s some room for him to impress enough to pressure the V&V tandem. He has, after all, been rated as a top-100 prospect in the past. And he bounced back from a woeful 2015 season, producing at a solid .264/.327/.455 clip in the upper minors last year.

Prediction: This situation seems destined to result in a platoon, with Vogelbach perhaps given a shot to face most of the righties and Valencia appearing against opposing southpaws.

CORNER OUTFIELD
Jarrod Dyson
Age: 32
Bats: L
Contract Status: 1 year, $2.8MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Mitch Haniger
Age: 26
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season 
Options remaining: 3

Guillermo Heredia
Age: 26
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

Ben Gamel
Age: 24
Bats: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

As with the situation at first, there are plenty of platoon options here. While Shawn O’Malley and Taylor Motter could factor into things, those two players appear more likely to battle for an infield-focused utility job. It’s mostly a four-horse race for the two corner outfield jobs flanking center fielder Leonys Martin — though basically any of this group of players could also see time in center as well.

The M’s are clearly excited about this defensively proficient group of players, but all have something to prove at the plate. Only Dyson is a clear certainty for a roster spot; the veteran was acquired for talented righty Nate Karns and can’t be optioned. His track record of outstanding glovework, excellent baserunning, and good-enough productivity at the plate also perhaps give him the best shot at earning near-regular time, though he has typically been used as a platoon player in the past and has long struggled against left-handed pitching.

The other three primary competitors will be duking it out for playing time, with Haniger perhaps having the inside track on duties in right field. Though he didn’t hit much in a 34-game MLB stint last year, the right-handed hitter laid waste to the upper minors, posting a .321/.419/.581 batting line and swatting a surprising 25 long balls in his 548 plate appearances.

While the M’s would no doubt love to carry both Heredia and Gamel, doing so would mean leaving behind an extra arm. And the optionable players can always be pulled back up as needed. Neither impressed in the majors last year, but both delivered strong on-base numbers in the upper minors. Which gets the first crack at MLB time this year may depend not only upon their respective performances this spring, but also the organization’s views on their potential platoon mates. Even the above-described first base battle could play into things; if Vogelbach secures regular time at first, that would leave Valencia available to provide righty pop in the corner outfield.

Prediction: Dyson seems likely to receive the bulk of the time in left, but right field seems wide open. On the one hand, platooning Haniger and Gamel could hold appeal. On the other, that would leave the M’s with three left-handed-hitting outfielders, perhaps opening the door for Heredia to make the roster with Gamel heading to Triple-A for further seasoning.

BULLPEN (THREE SPOTS)
Casey Fien
Age: 33
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $1.1MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Dan Altavilla
Age: 24
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season 
Options remaining: 3

Chris Heston
Age: 28
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season 
Options remaining: 1

Ariel Miranda
Age: 28
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season 
Options remaining: 2

Tony Zych
Age: 26
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season 
Options remaining: 2

Shae Simmons
Age: 26
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season 
Options remaining: 2

Paul Fry
Age: 24
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 or ’23 season 
Options remaining: 3

James Pazos
Age: 25
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season 
Options remaining: 2

Zac Curtis
Age: 24
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season 
Options remaining: 2

Other Candidates (non-roster invitees): Christian Bergman, Jonathan Aro, Jean Machi, Nick Hagadone, Dean Kiekhefer, Ryan Weber, Pat Venditte

With Steve Cishek only just beginning to throw, there’s added competition for a bullpen that has plenty of interesting candidates in camp. All of the 40-man members listed above, excepting Fry, saw MLB time last year. But only Fien, who signed a major league deal, seems to be all but presumed as a member of the Opening Day relief corps. And perhaps he’s not completely assured of a spot, meaning as many as three jobs are up for grabs this spring.

Altavilla, too, has a largely unassailable case for a role. After all, he allowed just a single earned run and racked up a 10:1 K/BB ratio in his 12 1/3 debut MLB frames last year. Still, he only worked to the Double-A level previously, and had never before impressed to the extent he did in 2016, so he doesn’t enter camp with a stranglehold on a job.

You could probably argue that Zych, too, deserves a presumption in favor of a spot, but he is still working back from a shoulder procedure. Related issues perhaps contributed to his skyrocketing walk rate last year. Zych may require a DL stint to open the year, and may spend some rehab time ensuring he’s fully back on track before rejoining the major league ranks. Simmons has also shown plenty of promise combined with injury woes. He has drawn the praise of GM Jerry Dipoto and could well earn a job.

Heston and Miranda, meanwhile, might conceivably fight to become the Mariners’ long relief man and spot starter. The latter could also conceivably play a role as a second lefty to join Marc Rzepczynski. If the team is determined to have another southpaw to rely upon, though, that could create opportunities for any of Fry, Pazos, or Curtis — not to mention non-roster options such as Hagadone, Kiekhefer, or even Brad Mills. (And who can forget the unique switch-pitcher, Pat Venditte, who’s back in Seattle camp?)

There are some non-roster contenders on the right-handed side of the equation, too. Bergman, the recently outrighted Aro, and the veteran Machi are also on hand, though none seem particularly likely to crack the roster. With so many arms on the 40-man, the M’s may feel okay about exposing one to waivers if another pitcher shows better in camp; alternatively, the organization could try to stash as many players as possible to maintain loads of depth entering the season.

Prediction: Fien and Altavilla look like strong bets here. Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource currently likes Heston to join them. My own inclination, though, is that the organization will prefer another lefty — predicting which one seems a fool’s errand, though Miranda could also handle a swingman function — unless Simmons has such an overwhelming camp that he can’t be held down.

[RELATED: Seattle Mariners Depth Chart]

MLBTR Poll: Assessing The Matt Wieters Deal

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While the deal is still awaiting a physical to be finalized, we learned yesterday that the Nationals had agreed to a two-year, $21MM pact with Matt Wieters that also allows him to opt out of the second season (and second $10.5MM payday). As the Nationals wrap up that move, and begin looking ahead to perhaps one more roster tweak to come, it seemed like an opportune time to take two quick polls.

By most accounts, the Nats paid less than Wieters was expected to earn entering the winter. Despite lower-than-expected demand, there were other suitors still in play, so perhaps also the deal reflects a still-active market. And in the final analysis, it’s an objectively reasonable price tag that reflects Wieters’s abilities but also his limitations.

Still, market-value deals often make more sense for some teams than others. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs isn’t sold that the Nats were the right team to make a play for Wieters, given the presence of Derek Norris, Jose Lobaton, and Pedro Severino. On the other hand, there may well be other considerations — the front office’s assessment of Wieters’s pitcher-handling and pitch-calling abilities, a scouting assessment of his hitting, etc. — that could impact the analysis. (There’s plenty more discussion of Wieters’s overall value in the above-linked post on his signing, as well as in Cameron’s piece.)

Then, there’s the question of what the team does next. This signing would look somewhat different if, as various reports have hinted, the team goes on to move Norris (along with his $4.2MM arbitration salary and remaining season of control) as opposed to Lobaton (a lower-upside veteran who is also cheaper at $1.575MM and set for free agency next winter). And it would be another matter entirely if the move was designed in part to free up Severino, who currently features as a part of the organization’s long-term planning at the position, to a acquire a late-inning reliever.

Regardless of what happens with Severino, it’s likely that the team will still need to decide between Norris and Lobaton as a second backstop. Though both Wieters and Lobaton are switch-hitters, the former has thrived traditionally against lefties, while the latter has been better against right-handed pitching. Norris, meanwhile, has wide platoon splits that suggest he’s most effective against southpaws.

Since the Nats’ next step impacts the assessment of the deal with Wieters (assuming it’s finalized), we won’t ask a simple yes/no on whether it’s a good signing. Indeed, there are alternative viewpoints on which ensuing transaction truly matters most in assessing this deal, since it’s reasonable to argue that any trade involving Severino really isn’t dependent upon the addition of another short-term, non-optionable veteran. Instead, then, we’ll ask: how would you characterize the move at this point?

(Link for app users.)

Were The Nationals Wise To Agree To Terms With Matt Wieters?
Yes, he's an upgrade over the existing options regardless of what they do next. 39.31% (2,828 votes)
Only if they trade a catcher for a closer. 27.79% (1,999 votes)
No, they should've kept the Norris-Lobaton pairing. 25.98% (1,869 votes)
Yes, but only if they keep Norris as the reserve. 6.92% (498 votes)
Total Votes: 7,194

Camp Battles: Milwaukee Brewers

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For the rebuilding Brewers, the 2017 season will serve as an audition to determine who will be part of the team’s future. Step one in the process will begin this spring with several players in the mix for openings.

Here are some notable position battles to keep an eye on.

CENTER FIELD and RIGHT FIELD
Keon Broxton
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 1

Domingo Santana
Age: 24
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 1

Hernan Perez
Age: 26
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: Out of options

Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Age: 29
Bats: L
Contract Status: 1 year, $900K; projected to become a free agent after ’19 season
Options remaining: Out of options

Lewis Brinson
Age: 23
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’23 season
Options remaining: 3

Other candidates: Ryan Cordell, Kyle Wren

Sporting a .125/.253/.188 slash line in 75 plate appearances, Broxton was, unsurprisingly, optioned to the minors in early July. That he was recalled later in the month and inserted into the starting lineup was a surprise, but he rewarded the Brewers’ faith in him with a stellar performance over his final 169 plate appearances (.294/.399/.538), including eight homers and 16 stolen bases. The center field job is likely his to lose.

Santana also left quite a late-season impression with a .301/.350/.581 slash line over his final 100 plate appearances. That should also give him a leg up this spring, although his 32.4% strikeout rate presents enough of a concern that he won’t just be handed the starting right field job. Of course, giving him regular playing time during a rebuilding season is how you find out if he’s capable of making the proper adjustments.

Perez probably won’t be named as a “starter”, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be in the starting lineup more often than not in 2017. With his defensive versatility—he played every position but catcher and pitcher in 2016— and an intriguing stat line in his first opportunity at semi-regular playing time in the Majors (.730 OPS, 13 HR, 34 SB in 430 plate appearances), there’s no question that Perez has tremendous value to the Brewers. It just might not be—and doesn’t have to be—as a regular outfielder.

Nieuwenhuis, who started 68 games in center field and 22 games in right field in 2016, gives the Brewers a veteran alternative to bridge the gap to the team’s top outfield prospects. Like the other outfield candidates, he strikes out a ton, but he also showed some power in 2016 (13 HR, 18 2B in 392 plate appearances).

After being acquired from the Rangers in the Jonathan Lucroy on August 1st, Brinson asserted himself as the Brewers’ top prospect heading into the season with a .382/.387/.618 slash line in 93 plate appearances for Triple-A Colorado Springs. He wasn’t having the best season prior to the trade (.237/.280/.431 in 326 Double-A plate appearances), however, and his poor walk-to-strikeout ratio (19 BB, 85 K between Double-A and Triple-A) is an indication that he’s probably isn’t ready to handle Major League pitching on a regular basis.

Prediction: Broxton, Santana

CATCHER
Andrew Susac
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 2

Jett Bandy
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 or ’22 season
Options remaining: 1

Manny Piña
Age: 30
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: Out of options

A 2nd round pick by the Giants in 2011 and one of their top prospects soon after, Susac has put up solid numbers throughout the minors (.246/.354/.424) despite being sidelined by injury more often than not—he has played in an average of 86 games per season. Regardless, he was never going to have an opportunity with Buster Posey ahead of him, which is partly why the Giants were willing to include him in the deal for reliever Will Smith at the 2016 trade deadline.

Not only will Susac need to prove that he can stay healthy, he’ll also have to beat out Bandy, who showed some power as a rookie with the Angels in 2016. In 231 plate appearances, the former 31st round pick had eight homers and nine doubles while throwing out 40% of attempted base stealers (19-for-48). Susac’s familiarity with the Brewers’ pitching staff—he spent most of September in the Majors and started four games behind the plate; Bandy was acquired this offseason—could give him an edge.

Piña, a journeyman who slashed .254/.346/.394 in 81 late-season plate appearances for the Brewers in 2016, is most likely competing to be the backup. But since neither Bandy or Susac has earned the right to be handed an MLB job, Piña should have at least an outside chance at regular playing time.

Prediction: Susac

STARTING ROTATION (ALL SPOTS)
Junior Guerra
Age: 32
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 1

Matt Garza
Age: 33
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $12.5MM; $13MM vesting or $5MM club option for ’18 
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Wily Peralta
Age: 28
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $4.275MM; projected to become a free agent after ’19 season 
Options remaining: 3

Chase Anderson
Age: 29
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $2.45MM; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season 
Options remaining: 1

Zach Davies
Age: 24
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 2

Jimmy Nelson
Age: 28
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: 2

Tommy Milone
Age: 30
Throws: L
Contract Status: 1 year, $1.25MM; projected to become a free agent after ’18 season
Options remaining: Out of options

Josh Hader
Age: 23
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’23 season
Options remaining: 3

Other candidates: Jorge Lopez, Taylor Jungmann, Brent Suter, Aaron Wilkerson, Brandon Woodruff

After making his first MLB start last May at the age of 31, Guerra went on to be the team’s “ace” in 2016. Unfortunately, an elbow injury slowed him down late in the season and, in all likelihood, hurt his value enough that the Brewers weren’t able to flip him to a contender during the offseason. Barring any setbacks with his elbow, he’ll have a good chance of taking the ball on Opening Day.

Garza wasn’t terrible in 2016, posting a 3.72 ERA over his last 12 starts, but his contract status makes it likely that the Brewers won’t keep him around for the entire season. If he reaches 115 innings—approximately 20-23 starts—his $13 million option for 2018 will vest. This will also make it difficult to trade him. Even if he boosts his trade value with a strong 1st half performance, teams will be wary of taking on his 2018 salary. As a result, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if the Brewers released him if he performs poorly this spring.

CORRECTION: In addition to pitching 115 innings for his 2018 option to vest, he would ALSO need to make 39 starts (110 starts from 2014-17) and not finish the season on the Disabled List. He will not make 39 starts and, therefore, his 2018 option will not vest. The Brewers will hold a $5MM club option. This makes it very likely that he’ll stick around and the Brewers will hope he can turn things around and draw some trade interest.

A mid-season demotion seemed to wake up a struggling Peralta, who responded with 10 very good starts to end the season (2.92 ERA, 61.2 IP, 55 H, 16 BB, 51 K). It saved him from being non-tendered this offseason and, along with being out of options, should give him an edge in this competition.

Anderson and Davies both proved to be solid back-of-the-rotation pitchers in 2016. Nelson has the potential to be more, but an awful finish (7.28 ERA over last 11 starts) could mean that he’s, surprisingly, an underdog to make the Opening Day rotation.

Despite getting knocked around in 2016, Milone should not be underestimated in this competition. He has had plenty of success as a starting pitcher with the A’s and Twins. He’s also out of options and, unlike the aforementioned candidates, he’s left-handed. That should ensure that he gets a long look before the team determines whether he’s a better fit in the rotation or the bullpen.

Not only is Hader the Brewers’ best pitching prospect, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline each rank him as the best left-handed pitching prospect in the game. He also has 14 (mostly very good) Triple-A starts under his belt while posting an impressive 11.5 K/9. Considering that he wouldn’t be expected to take on a full workload as a rookie, not to mention the potential drawback of starting his MLB service time clock on Opening Day, it’s highly unlikely that Hader is in the Majors in early April.

Prediction: Guerra, Garza, Anderson, Davies, Peralta

[RELATED: Milwaukee Brewers Depth Chart]

Camp Battles: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals disappointed in 2016, and entered the winter with questions about how they’d manage payroll with several key players poised for free agency. It’s a bit of tightrope walk, but the organization continued to put resources into the MLB roster. Two positions, in particular, are ripe for competition: one which features several holdovers, and the other of which may be led by two new additions.

Here are the key camp battles for the Royals, who are the third entrant in MLBTR’s new Camp Battles series.

SECOND BASE
Whit Merrifield
Age: 28
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

Christian Colon
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: Out of options

Cheslor Cuthbert
Age: 24
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: Out of options

Raul Mondesi
Age: 21
Bats: S
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

This is hardly an established group, but Kansas City elected to forego bringing in veteran competition — despite a market low on demand at the position — even as the organization signed a variety of hurlers to bolster its staff. It’s certainly a calculated gamble, but evidently the Royals front office remains confident that it can achieve value with the in-house options.

Merrifield appears to have the edge entering camp. He excelled in the field and on the bases in his debut last year, while hitting just enough (.283/.323/.392) to compile 1.7 fWAR in a half-season’s worth of games. If there’s another player who can stake a claim to the bulk of the time in camp, it may be Cuthbert. Despite his lack of time at second as a professional, the club has worked with him on learning the position, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star recently wrote. Cuthbert’s chief advantage comes in the power department; while his overall productivity largely mirrored that of Merrifield, he swatted a dozen long balls in 510 MLB plate appearances last year and added seven more at Triple-A.

The two other possibilities here are both limited in their offensive outlook. Colon struggled badly at the plate last year, slashing just .231/.294/.293, and may be best suited to utility work. Mondesi, who’s still just 21, was similarly unimpressive (.185/.231/.281) in similarly limited major league action, though he was much better in the minors (.268/.322/.469) and comes with a solid prospect pedigree. He’s also the only one of these players who can hit from the left side, though it’s reasonable to think the club will prefer he get some more seasoning in the upper minors.

Players such as Ramon Torres and Corey Toups are also in camp, but don’t appear to have much of a shot. The former hasn’t displayed much bat in the minors, and while the latter hit quite well last year at Double-A, that represents his only action to date in the upper minors.

Prediction: Merrifield opens the year with the lion’s share of the time.

STARTING ROTATION (ONE SPOT)
Travis Wood
Age: 30
Throws: L
Contract Status: 2 years, $12MM (plus $8MM mutual option; $1MM buyout)
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Chris Young
Age: 37
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $5.75MM (plus $8MM mutual option; $1.5MM buyout)
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Nate Karns
Age: 29
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: 1

The Royals are fairly locked in to their first four starters, with Jason Hammel essentially taking the spot that would’ve gone to dearly departed young righty Yordano Ventura. But there’s an open competition for the fifth and final rotation slot.

Kansas City obviously saw a need to bolster the depth, as the club added Wood late in the offseason after already dealing for Karns early on. The organization also has at least two other conceivable candidates in Mike Minor and Matt Strahm, though indications are that those two lefties will compete instead for bullpen jobs.

Wood says he signed with the Royals in part because he was promised a chance to compete for a rotation job, and he’s probably the favorite after landing a $12MM deal. But if he doesn’t grab the reins in camp — and/or some of the lefty pen options falter — it’s conceivable that the club could place him back in the relief role in which he thrived over the past two seasons.

It certainly seems possible that the other two chief candidates could overtake Wood in the competition. Young, after all, was inked last winter with the premise of working as a starter, and did leap to an 11.1% swinging-strike rate last year despite his unsightly 6.19 ERA (which came due to a reversal in his batted-ball fortunes from the prior two seasons). And Karns likely comes with the most upside, though it may work against him that he’s also an intriguing relief candidate and still has an option remaining.

Prediction: Wood earns the first crack at holding down the job.

[RELATED: Kansas City Royals Depth Chart]

MLBTR Poll: Pending Free Agent Extension Candidates

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It’s fairly typical to see several free-agents-to-be strike new contracts with their present organizations during Spring Training (or shortly thereafter). Last year, for instance, we saw Adrian Beltre (Rangers), Stephen Strasburg (Nationals), and Francisco Cervelli (Pirates) land long-term deals at the start of the 2016 season, reflecting negotiations that took place over the winter and, perhaps especially, during camp.

In some cases, the dealmaking can occur quite publicly, even if talks don’t result in an agreement. There were high-profile discussions last winter involving the Blue Jays and veteran sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. And who can forget the Jon Lester-Red Sox saga of 2014?

I’ve compiled a list of plausible extension candidates for consideration here. There are probably a few others, too, but this group seems to represent the bulk of the possibilities for deals keeping players off of the open market.

Veteran Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy of the Rangers and Yadier Molina of the Cardinals are in very different situations in their respective organizations. Lucroy came to Texas via trade last summer, while Molina is a St. Louis legend. But both appear to be solid extension candidates. The Rangers may look to find some added value in Lucroy, who has been one of the game’s best receivers and doesn’t have a clear replacement behind him. Meanwhile, the Cards will no doubt hope Carson Kelly proves ready to take Molina’s place, but seemingly prefer to keep the veteran around for at least another few years to pass the baton.

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
Molina 46.92% (2,772 votes)
Both 22.66% (1,339 votes)
Lucroy 22.65% (1,338 votes)
Neither 7.77% (459 votes)
Total Votes: 5,908

Core Royals Position Players

First baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, and center fielder Lorenzo Cain were all key parts of the Royals’ Cinderella story, and all three are looking to bounce back from disappointing 2016 seasons (due to a combination of injury and performance downturns). While some had expected Kansas City to engineer a ramp-down of its veteran obligations — the team did trade away Jarrod Dyson and Wade Davis — the organization already locked up Danny Duffy and seems intent on at least exploring deals with this trio. The focus thus far appears to have been on Hosmer, with the similarly youthful Moustakas perhaps also representing a more obvious target, though it’s possible to imagine any (albeit probably not all) signing on to stay.

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
Hosmer 30.81% (1,483 votes)
Moustakas & Hosmer 17.74% (854 votes)
Hosmer & Cain 14.21% (684 votes)
None 13.53% (651 votes)
Moustakas 8.56% (412 votes)
Moustakas & Cain 5.82% (280 votes)
All Three 5.11% (246 votes)
Cain 4.22% (203 votes)
Total Votes: 4,813

Star Starters

There could be quite a lot of money spent on starting pitching next winter, at least so long as Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka make it through strong seasons and don’t ink deals before reaching free agency. (Tanaka can also opt into the remaining three years and $67MM on his deal, it should be noted, though he’ll undoubtedly give that up so long as he remains healthy and effective.)

There’s a case to be made that none will reach new contracts. It’s far from clear whether the Cubs will pay enough to get Arrieta enough to bite, though talks are planned. Darvish’s injury questions may cloud his candidacy, but he could follow Strasburg in a surprise accord. In some ways, Tanaka represents the best possibility, despite his own elbow issues. He’s just 28, and the team is already bearing some risk over his health due to the opt-out (which really functions as a sizable player option).

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
None 25.21% (1,234 votes)
Arrieta 16.10% (788 votes)
Darvish 13.54% (663 votes)
Tanaka 10.54% (516 votes)
Arrieta & Darvish 10.21% (500 votes)
Darvish & Tanaka 9.89% (484 votes)
All Three 8.01% (392 votes)
Arrieta & Tanaka 6.50% (318 votes)
Total Votes: 4,895

Additional Possibilities

There are a few other players who could be under consideration as well. Neil Walker and the Mets have engaged in talks already, though it seems those could be foundering. Likewise, the Rockies are reportedly interested in discussing a new contract with Carlos Gonzalez. It’s questionable whether that’s a wise course given the team’s robust array of left-handed-hitting outfielders and Gonzalez’s own injury-related downturn in recent years, but he’s a star player who could still hold appeal to the Colorado organization. And perhaps there’s also a chance that the Indians look at a contract for Carlos Santana, though the presence of Edwin Encarnacion seemingly makes that less likely.

[Link for app users]

Which Players Will Likely Reach Extensions?
None 39.49% (1,365 votes)
Walker 16.95% (586 votes)
Santana 14.23% (492 votes)
Gonzalez 11.74% (406 votes)
Santana & Walker 5.35% (185 votes)
Santana & Gonzalez 4.60% (159 votes)
Gonzalez & Walker 3.99% (138 votes)
All Three 3.64% (126 votes)
Total Votes: 3,457

Dellin Betances’ Arbitration Case And The Value Of Closing

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The baseball world is abuzz about the controversial recent comments of Yankees president Randy Levine, who criticized Dellin Betances’ $5MM filing in his losing arbitration case this past week. After emerging victorious in arbitration, Levine described the filing as a “half-baked attempt” to “change a well-established market” for setup men, further noting that Betances was not a closer — the reliever type that typically commands big arbitration salaries — any more than Levine himself was an astronaut.

Dellin BetancesLevine’s decision to call out Betances after defeating him in a case was questionable, but he was right that arbitration pays relievers based on their role rather than their value. Indeed, my arbitration model forecasted Betances would land at $3.4MM, only a few ticks higher than the Yankees’ $3MM filing, and probably very close to where Betances could have bargained had he and the Yankees opted to negotiate a one-year deal to avoid arbitration.

Setting aside the decorum or business wisdom of the quote, the least accurate part of Levine’s comment was his description of Betances’ filing as an attempt to “change a well-established market.” Arbitration is not a market, or at least it is not a market in the way that people generally mean when they talk about markets. There are no multitudes of buyers and sellers trying to exchange the services of relievers in arbitration. Free agency is a market. Arbitration is a manufactured system of loosely defined rules that players and owners have agreed upon as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The difference is more than semantic. On the free agent market, Betances would be priced like a closer, in the sense that he pitches as well as one. Left up to a free market for his services, Betances could be paid like a closer. This happened just a couple years ago when Andrew Miller, with one career save, received a four-year deal for $36MM from none other than the New York Yankees.

Arbitration, on the other hand, follows a system of rules. Relievers are paid in arbitration based on a series of imperfect retrospective metrics that do not quite estimate value of a performance, rather than a prospective set of metrics designed to estimate the value of a performance, as teams attempt to use in free agency. Each player and team bargain independently, with no other buyers or sellers allowed to enter negotiations like in a typical market.

The most compelling comparables for Betances are those who primarily held setup roles, rather than closer roles, in the bullpen. Limiting to relievers in the last five years who had fewer than 20 saves in their platform year, we only get four pitchers who earned more than $2MM, and all four earned between $2.5MM-2.9MM. Even within that group (Neftali Feliz, Kris Medlen, Mark Melancon, and Drew Storen), all four pitchers had either been closers for longer periods of time than Betances. Medlen had been a starter for a period of time as well.

Looking only at setup men who accumulated large numbers of holds, the comps get even bleaker for Betances. Only four pitchers have gone into arbitration with 70 career holds (Betances has 78 career) in the last five years, and all have received less than $2MM.

Where Betances does differentiate himself is the fact that he has 22 career saves—he does have some closing history—and that he has struck out a whopping 404 hitters in 254 2/3 innings with a career ERA of 2.16. No one discussed in the part-time closer group above or the group with a significant number of career holds could touch those statistics.

And while detailed sabermetric statistics are unlikely to be persuasive in arbitration, Betances’ three All-Star berths were probably one of the better hopes for Betances and his representation. In fact, in recent years, only Craig Kimbrel entered his first year of arbitration with three career All-Star selections, and although he signed a multi-year deal, that only came after the Braves filed at $6.55MM, conceding quite a high value for a player recognized as Betances has been. Only two other players in the last five years even had two All-Star selections going into their first year of arbitration: Aroldis Chapman in 2014 and Andrew Bailey in 2012, who received $5MM and $3.9MM, respectively.

The catch is that Kimbrel had 139 career saves by the time he initially filed for arbitration, while Chapman had 77 and Bailey had 75. At just 22 career saves, Betances was bound to be paid mostly like a setup guy. My model estimates that had Betances’ 28 holds in 2016 all been saves (giving him 40), he would have been estimated to receive $4.5MM instead. If we turn his 50 holds in his pre-platform seasons into saves, that projection shoots up to $6.3MM. But turn those 78 relief appearances back from saves to holds, and we are left with his $3.4MM projection. Levine is, in fact, not an astronaut, and despite Betances’ performance being out of this world, he himself is neither an astronaut nor a closer.

So Betances does not in fact have the halo that typically accompanies a ninth-inning role. In the strictest sense of the word, he is not a closer. Okay … so he does not get coffee. Fine. But let’s discuss how Betances compares to other great relievers and figure out where he stands when we divorce ourselves from the role-based approach to paying arbitration-eligible players.

If arbitration were to reward relievers based on their performance, rather than their context-based statistics, Betances would have entered arbitration in a much more favorable position. Betances has 404 career strikeouts, which is more than any relief pitcher ever to enter arbitration for the first time in the modern era. In the last five years, only Kimbrel himself has even come close with 381 strikeouts, followed by Kenley Jansen at 347. Jansen received a one-year deal for $4.3MM back in 2014.

Limiting to pitchers with 300 career strikeouts and career ERAs under 2.50 (Betances is at 2.16), the only pitchers that emerge are closers already discussed above: Kimbrel, Chapman, and Jansen. From this perspective, Betances filing at $5MM would seem reasonable. Another potential comparable in terms of skill set would be Trevor Rosenthal, who received $5.6MM a year ago from the Cardinals with a 2.66 career ERA and 303 career strikeouts.

Of course, if we know that arbitration is based on retrospective performance, it stands to reason that looking at pitchers based on context-free numbers was unlikely to be persuasive. After all, a lights-out minor league pitcher gets paid the league minimum for his first three-plus seasons. Context matters. What might have been more compelling to an arbitration panel is a statistic like WPA or “Win Percentage Added” as presented by FanGraphs. This statistic simply uses a rough estimate of what the probability a team would win when a pitcher enters an inning (based on inning, score, and base-out situation) and again after he leaves or the inning ends.

For example, when Betances entered with a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning on August 31 against the Royals, the Yankees had a 79% chance of winning. After he saved that game, that 79% chance reached 100%, which gave him 0.21 WPA that day. But when Betances came in with a one-run lead and a runner on first in the seventh inning of an April 12 hold opportunity against the Blue Jays, and struck out Jose Bautista before retiring the side in the eighth en route to a one-run victory, Betances got a nearly identical 0.20 WPA combined for the seventh and eighth innings, because of his large effect on the Yankees’ probability of winning that game as well.

String together Betances’ entire career thus far, and he has 9.30 WPA. That would stand right next to Kimbrel himself, who had 9.29 WPA through 2013 when he first entered arbitration. It would top Jansen, who stood at 7.46 WPA upon reaching arbitration, and well ahead of Chapman, Rosenthal, and Bailey, who had 5.77, 5.72, and 5.05 WPA, respectively at those points in their careers.

I doubt that would have made a strong enough case given the historical importance of saves and holds (in that order), but it might have helped a panel see an alternative way of valuing what Betances has added to the Yankees’ win totals, without resorting to the same old stat columns.

In the narrow sense, Levine is right that Betances has not been a closer. That is almost entirely why the Yankees won this case, because everything else would have shined a brighter light on Betances’ performance.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Originals

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The past week’s original content from the MLBTR staff:

  • MLBTR contributor Brett Ballantini (links here) had an extensive discussion with White Sox general manager Rick Hahn regarding the franchise’s decision to rebuild, its decline after a hot start in 2016 and the choice to replace former manager Robin Ventura with Rick Renteria, among other topics. Hahn also shared the rather amusing story of where he was when he found out about Chris Sale’s uniform-related tantrum last July.
  • This year’s Camp Battles series kicked off with the Angels and Rockies (Jason Martinez covered the former, Jeff Todd the latter). Left field, closer and two starting rotation spots could be up for grab for the Halos. The Rockies, meanwhile, will stage competitions for catcher, closer and a place in their rotation.

Camp Battles: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies made several moves this winter geared toward putting a contender on the field, but face a tall task to unseat the Dodgers and Giants as the leading team in the NL West. While there’s not a ton to sort out in camp, there are a few notable battles that could impact Colorado’s hopes.

Here are the key camp competitions for the Rockies, who are the second entrant in MLBTR’s new Camp Battles series.

CATCHER
Tony Wolters
Age: 24
Bats: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 2

Tom Murphy
Age: 25
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

Dustin Garneau
Age: 29
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

After relying heavily on veteran Nick Hundley for the past two seasons, the Rox are set to hand off the field generalship to some much less experienced players. Wolters emerged after coming over through a waiver claim, providing solid defense behind the dish while adding value on the basepaths. He’s not much of a hitter — he posted a 75 wRC+ over 230 plate appearances and never did much more in the minors — but seems to have the trust of the organization.

Vying with each other to share time with Wolters, or possibly even take primary duties, are Murphy and Garneau. The former has shown quite a bit of bat in the upper minors and in his brief MLB time, though he’s still a work in progress behind the plate. The latter raked last year at Triple-A, but seems clearly third in line.

There’s still perhaps an outside chance that Colorado will make a move for Matt Wieters — if not some other veteran — before camp breaks. But if that doesn’t come to pass, the plan likely involves hoping that Murphy takes charge while leaning on Wolters to the extent necessary.

Prediction: Murphy is given every opportunity to win semi-regular time, but ends up in a time-share with Wolters.

CLOSER
Adam Ottavino
Age: 31
Throws: R
Contract Status: 2 years, $9.1MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Greg Holland
Age: 31
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $6MM with 2018 mutual option ($10MM or $1MM buyout)
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Jake McGee
Age: 30
Throws: L
Contract Status: 1 year, $5.9MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Mike Dunn
Age: 31
Throws: L
Contract Status: 3 years, $19MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Jason Motte
Age: 34
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $5MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

These five veterans all have substantial late-inning experience, with most having handled the ninth inning for at least some significant stretch. The only one that hasn’t — Dunn — just signed a contract that includes incentives for games finished, though that hardly means he’s been promised a full-blown shot at the job.

Ottavino seems the obvious choice: he has been nails over the past two seasons, with a 1.93 ERA and 11.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. But he has managed only 37 1/3 total innings in that stretch, owing to Tommy John surgery, and his health will be monitored closely all year long. The veteran Holland is a wild card, as he’s returning from his own TJ procedure and has a long record of dominating from a closer’s role. McGee is looking to bounce back from a subpar 2016 campaign, while Motte could be turned to if he can rebound from his own struggles and the need arises. Unless Ottavino falters, though, it seems the job is likely his.

Prediction: Ottavino

STARTING ROTATION (ONE SPOT)
Jeff Hoffman
Age: 24
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 3

Jordan Lyles
Age: 26
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $3.175MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

German Marquez
Age: 21
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 2

Kyle Freeland
Age: 23
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 or ’23 season (not yet on 40-man)
Options remaining: 3

The Rockies finally have some hope in the starting staff, but the fifth slot remains undetermined as camp opens. Fortunately, there are a host of intriguing arms that figure to compete for the job, with the losers expected to remain on hand if a leak springs during the season.

Both Hoffman and Marquez struggled in their MLB debuts, but are seen as talented hurlers and obviously have caught the eye of GM Jeff Bridich. If neither grabs the reins in camp, though, it’s plenty possible that they’ll be left in Triple-A for added seasoning when the season opens. That could leave room for a comeback for Lyles, who struggled badly in 2016 and may otherwise end up in the bullpen. Though Freeland has only a dozen Triple-A starts under his belt, that’s more than Marquez, so he too could factor with a big spring — though going to him would require opening a 40-man spot.

Prediction: Hoffman

[RELATED: Colorado Rockies Depth Chart]

Camp Battles: Los Angeles Angels

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With limited resources at his disposal, Angels general manager Billy Eppler did well to plug holes throughout his team’s roster this offseason. The improved depth will not only help his team over the 162-game grind, it will result in some competition this spring.

Here are some notable position battles to keep an eye on.

LEFT FIELD
Cameron Maybin
Age: 30
Bats: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $9MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Ben Revere
Age: 29
Bats: L
Contract Status: 1 year, $4MM
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Dustin Ackley
Age: 29
Bats: L
Contract Status: MiLB deal; $2.25MM if he makes the MLB roster
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

On the surface, Maybin should have a strong edge in this battle. Despite missing a good part of the 2016 season due to an assortment of injuries, he slashed .315/.383/.418 with 15 stolen bases in 393 plate appearances for the Tigers. Revere is coming off of an abysmal season with the Nats (.217/260/.300 in 375 plate appearances) in which he deservedly lost his starting job.

However, both players have been around long enough that their track records, as well as spring performance, will play a part in determining who will get the bulk of playing time when the season begins. Maybin has a long history of injuries and subpar offensive seasons. Revere, up until 2016, had been able to compensate for a lack of power and plate discipline with a .303 batting average and 36 stolen bases per season from 2012-2015. It would be tough to keep him out of the lineup if he returns to that form. Defensively, Maybin and Revere each cover a ton of ground and should be well above-average in left field.

Ackley, who signed a Minor League deal this offseason after he was released by the Yankees, is probably the most intriguing player in camp who could conceivably do enough in Spring Training to make a push if both Maybin and Revere struggle terribly. The 2nd overall pick in the 2009 draft, Ackley had an impressive rookie season with the Mariners in 2011, but has been a disappointment since.

Even if manager Mike Scioscia names one as his starter, it’s likely that he’ll look for platoon opportunities and/or go with the “hot hand” during the season, with Maybin and Revere both getting a chance to run away with the job.

Prediction: Maybin

CLOSER
Huston Street
Age: 33
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $10MM with 2018 club option ($10MM or $1MM buyout)
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Cam Bedrosian
Age: 25
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: Out of options

Andrew Bailey
Age: 33
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $1MM 
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Considering that Street had been one of the most consistent and reliable relief pitchers in baseball for more than a decade prior to an injury-plagued and ineffective 2016 season, it’s fair to say that he deserves the benefit of the doubt and should remain in the closer role to start the 2017 season.

The emergence of Bedrosian, however, is the likeliest reason why Street will have a much shorter leash than he’s ever had during his career. If not for a blood clot that ended his season two days after taking over as the closer when Street landed on the disabled list in early August, Bedrosian might have already proven that he’s the best man for the job. It won’t be long, though, if he can pick up where he left off (1.56 ERA, 11.4 K/9 in 45 appearances).

Former A’s closer Andrew Bailey also earned his way into the competition by pitching well after the Angels signed him to a Minor League deal in August (11.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 8 K). For Bailey to get serious consideration, though, he’d have to give the Angels every indication that he is healthy and back to the form that made him a Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star very early in his career.

Prediction: Street on Opening Day. Bedrosian takes the job from him by June 1st.

STARTING ROTATION (TWO SPOTS)
Tyler Skaggs
Age: 25
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: 1

Jesse Chavez
Age: 33
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $5.75MM 
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Nate Smith
Age: 25
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’23 season 
Options remaining: 3

Alex Meyer
Age: 27
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 or ’23 season 
Options remaining: 1

Bud Norris
Age: 32
Throws: R
Contract Status: MiLB deal; $1.75MM if he makes the MLB roster
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Yusmeiro Petit
Age: 32
Throws: R
Contract Status: MiLB deal; $2.25MM if he makes the MLB roster
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Other candidates: Daniel Wright, Manny Bañuelos, Brooks Pounders

Not only is there a rotation spot that is Skaggs’ to lose, he’s a strong candidate to break out in 2017. In his first season since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014, Skaggs was eased back into action with 10 MLB starts after a late-July promotion. The Angels will still likely proceed with some caution since he only threw a total of 89 innings in 2016. He’ll need to prove in Spring Training that he’s ready to handle a full workload or else he could begin the season in Triple-A.

Chavez’s versatility is a big part of his value, but the Angels did not have the financial freedom to give nearly $6MM to a pitcher who wasn’t going to start or factor into the late-inning mix. He’ll be given every opportunity to win a rotation spot. In 26 starts with the A’s in 2015, he had a 4.37 ERA with 7.6 K/9 in 150.1 innings pitched. The Angels would be ecstatic if he can come close to that production.

Meyer, a former top prospect for the Twins, has battled injuries and control issues throughout his career. He does have an upper-90’s fastball, however, which is why he’s the most intriguing candidate on this list. The bullpen might be his ultimate destination, but the Angels probably aren’t ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. The 6’9″ right-hander only pitched 50.1 innings in 2016, but 12 of his 13 appearances, including all five at the MLB level, were starts.

Smith doesn’t have Meyer’s ceiling, but he has the potential to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter and he might be ready to step in now. Both he and Meyer are on the 40-man roster, which is why they’ll get a long look this spring.

Like Chavez, Petit is valuable because of his ability to pitch as a swingman. In this case, he’ll be given an opportunity to win a rotation spot, although he’ll have an uphill battle to stand out. His ability to successfully bounce from the bullpen to emergency spot starter might even work against him since he’s an appealing candidate for the pen. Norris isn’t that far removed from being a very good MLB starter, but he’s had a rough go of it over the past two seasons (5.79 ERA in 196 IP between four teams). Regardless, Petit and Norris are veterans who are capable of contributing at some point, even if not right out of the gate.

Prediction: Skaggs and Chavez win spots.

[RELATED: Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart]

White Sox GM Rick Hahn Q&A: Part Two

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This is the second half of an interview with White Sox GM Rick Hahn, conducted by MLBTR contributor Brett Ballantini. Click here to read Part I. 

In the second part of the conversation, Hahn addresses the disappointing 2016 season that drove his team’s rebuild, the Hall of Fame chances for all-time favorite Mark Buehrle, and a truly unexpected text received last July:

—

You were best in the bigs along with the crosstown Chicago Cubs on May 9, but plummeted from there, as the seventh-worst team in the majors after May 9. Was there a specific moment during the free-fall where the brain trust said, “we know what we have to do,” or did the season end with you still unsure whether it would be another all-in winter?

We knew what we wanted to accomplish [as of] last July. However, we did not feel the opportunities were quite robust enough at that time to pull the trigger on multiple fronts. The desire to make dramatic moves to more rapidly further this rebuild was strong. But we had to resist the urge to make deals that might have declared that we were embarking in a new direction, but really didn’t provide us with what we felt were adequate returns for some of the players we were discussing back then.

When the team got off hot, what were you feeling? Was it, “Jeez, this is great, smiles all around,” or are you more a worrywart concerned that Mat Latos’ BABIP is unsustainable?

I don’t want to make it sound like we did not enjoy the 23-10 start last year. We did. We were winning a lot of ballgames late and were getting some tremendous pitching performances up and down the staff. However, all of us are trained to kind of be prepared for what could go wrong.

Even in the midst of that run, we made the decision to let John Danks go. Even while six games up [in first place], we felt that the back end of our rotation needed some sort of further reinforcement beyond the addition of Miguel Gonzalez, and that the bullpen was getting severely taxed. We were concerned about some areas of depth where we lacked sufficient reinforcements in the minors. Unfortunately, each of those areas of concern turned out to be valid as spring turned to summer.

Noting that injuries did not help matters, was the 2016 White Sox catching production anything more than a black hole scenario from your perspective? Framing appeared to crush the starting staff, particularly lefties Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon. Clearly releasing a plus-framer in Tyler Flowers on the hunch that Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro would be an overall-plus move did not work out. Has your analysis of catchers/catching changed or evolved coming out of 2016?

We obviously did not get what we were hoping for out of our catching last season, but that extended beyond a framing issue. I do have to say, for all the abuse that Tyler took from certain segments while he was with us, it is nice that he is at least now getting some credit for his framing ability, which he worked very hard at.

The decision last offseason was based upon a desire to inject some added run-scoring ability into an offense that badly needed it, without too many feasible avenues open to doing such. We knew that would come at the expense of some of the framing numbers, but we also view a catcher’s defensive contributions more broadly. Framing is certainly important, but so is the ability to throw out runners, block balls in the dirt, know our pitchers, and adjust game plans on the fly, among other things. In the end, we did not get as much out of the change as we anticipated because we did not get the performances that we expected—not because we were oblivious to the exchange we were attempting to make.

When we talked a year ago, you acknowledged that one regret about your former first-rounder Gordon Beckham is that he never tasted failure until the majors, which ultimately worked against him. Tim Anderson was expected to play all of 2016 in Charlotte, but got the call at midseason and impressed across the board. Assuming that players getting a taste of failure is a key element in your decision to give him the call up to the White Sox, it can’t be as simple as waiting until a guy has a 15-K week or gets bombed in two straight starts. Is there an element of a player’s makeup that most impacts your decision to “rush” him to the bigs?

The makeup element to this is huge. You are correct that we, like most clubs, view failure in the minors as part of a player’s development. More precisely, learning to respond to adversity outside of the glare and scrutiny of the majors will likely serve a player well once he inevitably encounters similar hardships in the big leagues.

With Tim, he did have some small slumps during his time in the minors, and he certainly had to make some adjustments along the way. But from an ability standpoint, it was clear he was ready for the final stages of his development, which occurs at the big league level. Prior to bringing him up, we had a number of conversations with Buddy Bell, Nick Capra (who was our farm director at the time), and others in player development about whether anyone had any doubts that Timmy could handle it. Everyone believed in Timmy’s makeup and ability to cope with the adjustments required as any player makes that transition. Obviously, his performance was strong, but how he handled himself was even more impressive.

Pitching coach Don Cooper has had remarkable success with diagnosing even the smallest quirks preventing a pitcher from maximizing his potential. Is Lucas Giolito just a Coop camp away from resetting himself back into a breakout MLB arm?

Sure. I like that. Look, we’re excited to see all these new guys work with our coaches. Not just in the coming weeks in ML camp, but throughout the season.  They each have some development left ahead of him, but we have the luxury of being patient with them, to allow our coaches to work with them, and to give the player time to be put in the best position to maximize their abilities.

Rick Renteria had a sneaky-great season managing the Cubs in 2014, and got a really tough break losing that job when Joe Maddon became available. Was Rick already on your radar by that time, as a guy who would project as a great pilot? What did he show you with the Cubs that made you want to get him in a White Sox cap—and how were your observations or hunches confirmed when he worked under Robin?

Ricky had a sterling reputation with coaches, players, and front office people alike going back to his San Diego Padres days, and was likely on a list somewhere in most front offices at that time. We had heard about his work ethic, ability to teach, passion for the game, openness to new ideas and debate, and communication skills over the years, but it is difficult to really appreciate that until you are working with him. Sox fans are really going to like and appreciate what he brings to dugout over the coming years.

You worked closely with Mark Buehrle for years, and in 2003 and 2007 you negotiated extensions with him in turbulent waters. With his almost-stealth efficiency, Buehrle comes in around 52 WAR across Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus measures, with a no-hitter, perfect game, and win-save in the World Series. Is he a Hall-of-Famer?

I’m allowed to still be a fan sometimes, right? Good. Sure, Mark Buehrle is a Hall-of-Famer. I say that with complete bias and 100% based upon the fact that I loved watching him pitch. Objectively, I realize that the true answer may be a little different, but for these 30 seconds, I don’t care. Mark was a great White Sox, a tremendous teammate, and a joy for all of us to watch during his time with the club.

What is the weirdest moment you’ve had as GM?

One afternoon last summer, I was filling in as first-base coach for my son’s Little League team because one of his coaches had a conflict. It was playoff game, the team was making a nice late rally, and the whole thing was a great little escape for me.

Then my phone started blowing up. After a text from [manager] Robin Ventura that read, “No. Actually, he’s cut up all the jerseys,” I knew my little escape was over….

Follow Brett Ballantini on Twitter @PoetryinPros

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