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MLBTR Originals

Managers And Front Office Bosses On Expiring Contracts

By Mark Polishuk | December 26, 2016 at 1:34pm CDT

There are quite a few notable managers and top front office executives (general managers or heads of baseball operations who have different titles) entering their last guaranteed year under contract in 2017, creating even more pressure than usual to have a good season.  Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for providing many of these contract details.

As always with this list, it should be noted that contract length is far from an absolute measure of job security.  Teams with seemingly stable management could be one disastrous season away from a shakeup in the dugout or front office, while some of the managers or executives listed here could have “stay as long as you want” handshake deals in place.  Some teams also don’t publicize contract details for front office executives, so some of the names on the list could have already quietly signed extensions, or there could be other execs entering their last year under contract.

Here are some of the names who could be facing a hotter seat than usual in 2017…

Blue Jays: John Gibbons reworked his contract with the club last March, eliminating the “rolling option” provision of his previous deal.  There was some question over the last year as to whether Gibbons’ time in Toronto was running out with Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins running the Jays’ front office instead of Alex Anthopoulos, rumors that continued into the season as the Blue Jays got off to a slow start.  As the Jays recovered to capture a wild card and eventually reach the ALCS, however, Gibbons secured his job for next year and drew praise from Shapiro.  The whispers probably won’t entirely go away until Gibbons signs a multi-year extension, though given Toronto’s success last year, the announcement of a new deal for the manager during Spring Training wouldn’t be a surprise.

Braves: John Hart’s three-year contract as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations is up after the 2017 season.  After shepherding the club through a rebuilding process, it would be somewhat unusual to see Hart leave just as the Braves are entering their new ballpark and are beginning to turn toward being competitive again.  Then again, Hart could also return to a senior advisor role and let GM John Coppolella fully take the reigns of the baseball ops department.  Manager Brian Snitker’s contract consists of one guaranteed year and a club option year for 2018, though since Snitker beat out a distinguished field to become the Braves’ full-time skipper, he likely isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Mets: Terry Collins has already given some indication that 2017 could be his last season regardless of whether or not the Mets would want him back as manager, as the 67-year-old had a particularly tough time dealing with the grind of the 162-game schedule this past year.  There were a number of rumors about Collins’ job security over the summer, though the Mets’ unlikely September push to a wild card spot ensured that he would stay in the dugout for at least one more year.  GM Sandy Alderson is also entering his final year under contract, and past reports from 2014 suggested that he didn’t want to remain in the job beyond four more seasons.  An extension of his general manager contract doesn’t appear to be in the cards, though it wouldn’t be surprising if Alderson moved into a new upper management role with the Mets and let someone else step into the day-to-day GM duties.

Nationals: Dusty Baker delivered an NL East title in his first year as Washington’s manager, though since the Nats are clearly in win-now mode, another first-round postseason exit could potentially cost Baker his job.  That might seem like undue pressure for a veteran skipper like Baker, though it wouldn’t be unusual for a Nationals franchise that a rather checkered history with hiring and firing managers.

Phillies: Pete Mackanin already received an extra guaranteed year from the Phils last March, as well as a club option for 2018.  Barring a major step backwards in the development of the team’s young players, Mackanin’s job should be safe.

Pirates: After three straight postseason appearances, the Bucs dipped back under the .500 mark last year, and another losing season could lead to some questions about Neal Huntington’s tenure as general manager.  It’s probably more likely that Huntington would get more time to see if he could engineer another Pirates turn-around, however, and ownership does have a club option on Huntington’s services for 2018.  Manager Clint Hurdle is also entering his last guaranteed year with a club option for 2018, and as of last November, he hadn’t had any talks with the Pirates about a new deal.  Like Huntington, however, there isn’t any sign that Pittsburgh’s rough 2016 year has jeopardized Hurdle’s long-term future with the team.  There is some sense, however, that bench coach Tom Prince is being groomed as a future manager should Hurdle eventually leave the job or be fired.

Reds: Just prior to the end of the season, the Reds announced that Bryan Price had signed a new contract that contained a guaranteed year in 2017 and a club option for 2018.  It’s worth noting that this is less security than Price’s initial three-year deal with the team, though since the Reds are in a rebuilding phase, GM Dick Williams could be giving himself flexibility if a change in the dugout is needed as Cincinnati eventually shifts back towards trying to contend.

Tigers: This could be the most uncertain situation on the list, as Brad Ausmus has himself expressed some annoyance about his lack of job security.  Detroit came close to firing Ausmus after the 2015 season, and the team simply exercised its club option on his services after this past year without adding any other guaranteed or option years beyond 2017.  The Tigers have two winning seasons and an overall winning record in Ausmus’ three years at the helm, though they’ve missed out on the postseason in each of the last two years.  The team’s change in direction in regards to their spending practices doesn’t mean the Tigers’ desire to win is any less great, so even a slow start next season could potentially end Ausmus’ tenure.

Twins: Even with the hiring of a new front office led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, Twins owner Jim Pohlad requested that Paul Molitor remain the team’s manager.  It doesn’t look like Molitor is going anywhere, despite how the Twins badly struggled in his second year running the clubhouse.

Yankees: GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi are both entering the last year of their deals, and Cashman has already said that, as far as he knows, Yankees ownership will stick to its usual tactic of waiting until the season ends to discuss new contracts.  While the last few years have been disappointments by New York’s high standards, Cashman and Girardi have overcome injuries and disappointing performances from both high-priced players and prospects to continue the Yankees’ string of winning seasons.  Cashman also reloaded the Yankees’ farm system with elite prospects in a series of midseason trades, putting the team in a better position to contend in the future.  Girardi at least considered other managerial jobs prior to signing his most recent contract with the team, though right now he looks like a good bet to continue in the job unless he wants a new challenge or if the Yankees have a rough 2017 season.

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Candidates For The Reds’ First MLB Deal Of The Offseason

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | December 25, 2016 at 8:40pm CDT

The Reds have been busy on the waiver wire, but quiet elsewhere. Beyond picking which young players upon which to make dice rolls, GM Dick Williams has largely held his hand thus far. That’s not terribly surprising, for a variety of reasons.

The club’s most obvious potential trade chips come with no-trade protection (Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips) or play positions that aren’t in huge demand (Phillips, Zack Cozart). There was never a strong prerogative to deal from among the Reds’ other controllable assets, such as righty Anthony DeSclafani and center fielder Billy Hamilton. At the same time, after spending about two years compiling prospects, the organization has plenty of young players who are ready to compete for major league opportunities in 2017, so there aren’t a lot of needs.

Still, it would be surprising if the team makes it through the winter without striking at least one major-league contract. Cincinnati nearly did so a winter ago, giving MLB deals only to Blake Wood and (in mid-March) Alfredo Simon. While the Yankees actually did manage to avoid handing out a 40-man spot to a free agent in 2015-16, it’s a rarity.

And it isn’t as if the Reds are fully loaded for 2017, particularly if they hope to have an outside chance at turning into a contender. In particular, the bullpen appears ripe for an addition. That’s especially true of the open closer role; while Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, or even Tony Cingrani would represent internal options, giving any of those youngsters the opportunity would also mean boosting their expected arbitration earnings. Cincinnati might as well make the investment to add another arm, while utilizing them in set-up roles. Alternatively, or additionally, the Reds could look to add some veteran arms — either swingman types or pure relievers — to provide depth.

So, what are the options should Cincinnati decide to open up one of its prized 40-man roster spots? Let’s run down a few of the remaining bullpen arms that could make sense…

  • Joe Blanton: After a pair of resurgent seasons split between the Royals, Pirates and Dodgers, it’s very possible that Blanton will be too expensive for Cincinnati’s tastes. He’s posted a 2.65 ERA across his past 165 MLB innings with good control and better than a strikeout per inning. He could find a high-leverage spot on a contending club, though Cincinnati could entice him by offering a ninth-inning role.
  • Santiago Casilla: If Casilla wants to continue closing, his age and his September meltdown in 2016 might limit his opportunities. However, Cincinnati could offer him that type of opportunity with an eye toward flipping him in July if he performs well. His poor finish aside, Casilla has a 2.42 ERA in 394 2/3 regular-season innings dating back to 2010 and has whiffed better than a batter per inning in each of the past two seasons.
  • Neftali Feliz: The former AL Rookie of the Year had a resurgent season in the Pirates’ bullpen this past season and could command a high-leverage role with Cincinnati (or another club) if his medicals check out. Feliz ended the season on the shelf but there’s been no word of any arm issues lingering into the offseason. He posted a 3.52 ERA with 61 strikeouts against 20 unintentional walks in 53 2/3 innings this past season.
  • David Hernandez: Hernandez crashed and burned when given a short leash as Philadelphia’s closer early last season, but he rebounded to pitch quite well over the remainder of the season. The 31-year-old posted a 3.53 ERA and punched out 69 hitters against 28 walks in his final 66 1/3 innings of the 2016 campaign. As a presumably low-cost veteran arm with closing experience, he’d be a nice add to a Cincinnati bullpen that could develop into a trade chip down the line with a good full season.
  • Greg Holland: Perhaps the highest-upside arm left on the market, Holland could potentially be lured to the Reds with a guarantee of pitching in the ninth inning from day one. Contending clubs may be wary to make such a commitment, but a rebuilding team like the Reds has little to lose. And while Holland may prefer to sign with a contender, he could also sign in Cincinnati with the guarantee of save opportunities and with the understanding that he’d be likely to be flipped to a contender come July if he rediscovered the form he showed from 2011-15 prior to Tommy John surgery (2.15 ERA, 12.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 in 301 innings).
  • Yusmeiro Petit: The Reds don’t have anyone locked into a multi-inning role, but Petit could be had on an affordable one-year deal and fill that role while also serving as a safety net for an inexperienced rotation. The Nationals didn’t use him much down the stretch in 2016, and he struggled when he did take the hill, but he’s worked to a very solid 3.83 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 between the rotation and bullpen across the past five seasons (307 2/3 innings).
  • Sergio Romo: The former Giants closer lost his ninth-inning role to the aforementioned Casilla late in his San Francisco tenure, but he’s been rock solid in terms of bottom-line results virtually every year in the Majors since debuting in 2008. The 33-year-old has only posted an ERA north of 3.00 in two MLB seasons and has a lifetime 2.58 ERA with 10.2 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in the Majors. He doesn’t throw hard, but Romo would bring loads of late-inning experience to a Reds team that is lacking in that area.
  • Joe Smith: Like so many others on this list, Smith comes with some closing experience but has also worked in a setup capacity for a number of years. Set to turn 33 in March, Smith is a ground-ball specialist with a history of limiting the long ball — a trait that’d be appealing to the Reds, who play in a homer-happy home park. A 2.64 ERA over his past 389 MLB innings only adds to the appeal.
  • Drew Storen: It’s been a stark downward spiral for Storen since the Nationals acquired Jonathan Papelbon in July 2015. Storen was demoted to a setup role, performed poorly, and found himself flipped to the Blue Jays, where his results weren’t any better. A midseason trade to the Mariners in 2016 didn’t improve his results, either. Rough stretch aside, the former No. 10 overall pick has a career 3.31 ERA and posted a 2.91 ERA with solid control and nearly a strikeout per inning from 2011-15. On a short-term deal, the upside for the Reds would be tantalizing.
  • Shawn Tolleson: In 2015, Tolleson emerged as a surprise closer for the Rangers, saving 35 games and logging a 2.99 ERA in 72 1/3 innings — his second straight year with 70-plus innings and a sub-3.00 ERA. Tolleson imploded in 2016 and saw his strikeout rate plummet while his home-run rate skyrocketed. There are a number of reasons for interested suitors to have skepticism, but the Reds could offer a low-base one-year deal with the promise of a high-leverage role. If Tolleson returns to form, he’d be a summer trade chip at the very least. However, he’s also controllable through 2018, so the Reds could simply enjoy his services for a full year and reassess next winter if he rebounds in 2017.
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Top 10 Remaining Free Agents

By Connor Byrne | December 25, 2016 at 1:11pm CDT

MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth broke down the top 10 free agents remaining on the market last week, which he based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes put together entering the offseason. Edwin Encarnacion and Ivan Nova, the first- and third-ranked unsigned players left as of Dec. 17, have since come off the board. That means a couple new faces will slide into this week’s list, while updates have come in on some of the others in recent days. Here’s the latest:

8. Mark Trumbo, 1B/DH/OF: The Orioles rescinded their four-year offer to Trumbo shortly after our rankings went up a week ago, but general manager Dan Duquette then stated that there’s still a “window open” to re-sign him. Baltimore could face competition from Colorado, whose GM, Jeff Bridich, acknowledged Tuesday that the team is “keeping track” of Trumbo. The plurality of MLBTR readers expect Trumbo to end up staying with the Orioles, though, after he smashed a major league-best 47 home runs as a member of the club in 2016.

12. Jose Bautista, OF/DH: This offseason has not gone according to plan for the 36-year-old Bautista, who seems to stand little chance of landing even a medium-term deal. The idea of joining the Rays, who wouldn’t have to give up their protected first-round pick to sign Bautista, has continued to come up, but it’s clearly a long shot. Although Bautista’s a Tampa Bay-area resident, he’s still out of the Rays’ price range. The longtime Blue Jay is open to accepting a one-year contract, but the value would have to exceed that of the $17.2MM qualifying offer. He rejected the QO from Toronto prior to free agency, of course, and the Jays haven’t made him an offer worth more since.

15. Jason Hammel, SP: As is the case with Bautista, the winter hasn’t unfolded to Hammel’s liking. Thus, the 34-year-old right-hander changed agencies Tuesday.

16. Matt Wieters, C: The four-time All-Star won’t be returning to Baltimore for a ninth season in 2017, but nearby Washington and one of its NL East rivals, Atlanta, look like real possibilities. While the Nationals traded for a potential starting backstop in ex-Padre Derek Norris earlier this month, they could pick up Wieters and flip Norris elsewhere. Plus, their hierarchy is close with Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras. Signing with the Braves, meanwhile, would enable Wieters to head back to his native south (he’s from Charleston, S.C.) and to the state in which the former Georgia Tech star played college baseball.

20. Michael Saunders, OF: There’s not much happening with Saunders (publicly, anyway), though Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported Sunday that the Orioles are open to inking him to a one-year contract.

21. Mike Napoli, 1B/DH: Napoli’s done in Cleveland, which upgraded over him with Encarnacion, but the Rangers are hot on his trail. The 35-year-old has already been a Ranger twice – from 2011-12 and for 35 games in 2015. The Orioles, who are coming up a lot in this update, have joined the mix, too.

23. Greg Holland, RP: Nothing new to report on Holland, who’s the most proven closer remaining in free agency. The problem is that the former late-game ace with the Royals missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2015.

24. Travis Wood, SP/RP: Wood was a starter from 2010-14 and could conceivably sign somewhere as a rotation option, though he spent the previous two seasons as mostly a reliever with the Cubs. The Blue Jays, who need left-handed bullpen help in the wake of Brett Cecil’s departure, are now in on the 29-year-old Wood.

25. Neftali Feliz, RP: Aside from Winter Meetings connections to the Nationals and Marlins, Feliz’s market has been slow to develop this offseason. Closer-needy Washington continues to look like a fit after losing out on Kenley Jansen, while Miami’s bullpen now appears set thanks to the additions of Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Feliz, a longtime Ranger, has 99 saves to his name and is coming off a 29-hold season with the Pirates. All told, the 28-year-old posted a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings, making Feliz an effective buy-low player for a Bucs team that secured him with a modest guarantee ($3.9MM) last January.

30. Brandon Moss, 1B/OF: Tampa Bay is seemingly the only team with Moss on its radar. Given the quantity of similar players on the market, Moss might have to continue to wait for a deal to come along. The 33-year-old impressed with 28 homers and a .259 ISO in 464 plate appearances with St. Louis last season, but his overall line (.225/.300/.484) lagged on account of a .191/.248/.392 showing after the All-Star break.

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Poll: Dubious December Decisions

By Connor Byrne | December 25, 2016 at 11:19am CDT

With an action-packed December on the verge of ending (happy holidays, MLBTR fans!), the most entertaining moments of Major League Baseball’s Hot Stove season have likely passed. As evidenced by what’s left of a free agent class that was uninspiring from the outset, the majority of this winter’s top available players have already found new homes. On the trade front, it’s possible we won’t see any more blockbusters, though this month’s Winter Meetings certainly brought a couple memorable ones that will hugely impact the involved franchises for years to come.

Of all the transactions that have taken place in December, there are a few which arguably stand out as head-scratchers. We’ll touch on a trio of those moves below and ask the readers to share their opinions via the poll and comments section:

Nationals send a prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton: Both sides made out well in this trade from my vantage point, but the Nationals have drawn criticism for surrendering two of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), and 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire Eaton. After making the deal at the Winter Meetings, Nationals president and general manager Mike Rizzo told predecessor Jim Bowden (now of ESPN and Sirius XM) that he was “getting barbecued.” Bowden is one of Rizzo’s most outspoken critics in this case, as he regards it as the “worst trade” he has ever seen (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post).

If you’re to believe wins above replacement, the well-rounded Eaton has been among the majors’ most valuable outfielders during his three full major league seasons, having combined for 12.8 fWAR and 15.3 rWAR in 1,933 plate appearances dating back to 2014. The 28-year-old also possesses one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts for an established player, which made it all the more reasonable for rebuilding Chicago to demand a ransom in return. Eaton is controllable for the next five seasons, including club options in 2020 and ’21, at a maximum value of $38MM. He and Bryce Harper should form two-thirds of an excellent outfield in D.C. for at least two seasons (Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 campaign), though the latter’s presence in right will force Eaton to center. Eaton’s coming off a season in which he was an elite defender in right with a major league-high 23.1 Ultimate Zone Rating and 22 Defensive Runs Saved (second). The metrics haven’t liked Eaton nearly as much in center (minus-21 UZR, minus-8 DRS in 3,115 career innings), which – along with the young pitchers the Nationals lost – has led to skepticism regarding Washington’s half of the trade.

Rockies spend $70MM over five years on Ian Desmond … to play first base? After receiving replacement-level production at first last year from a slew of players (mostly Mark Reynolds), Colorado entered the offseason in desperate need at the position. The Rockies also came into the winter having promised to post a franchise-record payroll in 2017, so the fact that they prioritized first and allocated big money to it wasn’t a shock. But, instead of adding one of the many first base types available, they weirdly signed Desmond. The career shortstop/outfielder will now occupy the least valuable defensive position on the field, and his bat won’t play as well there as it has at short or in center field. With Texas last season, the 31-year-old Desmond spent the vast majority of his time in center and logged a solid 106 wRC+ (league average for the position in 2016 was 96). If he’d have recorded the same production at first, where the league-average wRC+ was 108, he’d have been a much less appealing offensive cog. Nevertheless, if you’re to believe Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, Desmond will be their first baseman going forward. Considering both the money the Rockies gave Desmond and the first-round pick they lost to sign him (the eminently valuable 11th overall selection), it comes off as an odd choice.

Yankees reunite with Aroldis Chapman: It was hardly surprising that the Yankees brought back Chapman, whom they traded to the Cubs for star prospect Gleyber Torres at last summer’s deadline, or inked him to a record contract for a reliever. After all, MLBTR predicted he’d secure a five-year, $90MM accord from the Bombers, who ended up giving him an $86MM guarantee over a half-decade. The problem is twofold (and this ignores Chapman’s past domestic violence issues): 1. The Yankees are bent on getting under the luxury tax threshold soon (they’re on track to exceed it for a 15th straight year in 2017), and splurging on a reliever won’t help their cause. 2. The deal grants Chapman the ability to opt out after Year 3, which doesn’t seem to align with their window of contention. New York is amid a retooling phase and has been stockpiling youth as a result, so touted prospects like Torres, Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, among others, might not be ready to hit their respective strides for another few years. By then, Chapman could be in another uniform. In the meantime, and in fairness to the Yankees, the flame-throwing left-hander should continue serving as a dominant closer who helps them lock down late-game leads. But whether they’ll have enough of those leads to be a playoff team in the near future is in question.

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Which is the most questionable December transaction?
Nationals trade a haul for Adam Eaton 50.01% (7,309 votes)
Rockies sign Ian Desmond 33.30% (4,867 votes)
Yankees bring back Aroldis Chapman 13.11% (1,916 votes)
Other 3.57% (522 votes)
Total Votes: 14,614
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MLBTR Originals

By Mark Polishuk | December 18, 2016 at 5:31pm CDT

This week’s original content from the MLB Trade Rumors team…

  • The Nationals have thus far been unsuccessful in their attempts to land a closer, and Jeff Todd runs down the list of late-inning relievers the Nats could still pursue in free agent or in the trade market.  (Not to mention the potential in-house bullpen candidates who could step into a closing role.)  In a poll of MLBTR readers, over 55% feel Washington will find its next closer via a trade.
  • In another MLBTR poll, Connor Byrne asks readers which team will sign Mark Trumbo.  Over 26% of you believe Trumbo will return to the Orioles, which could make sense given that another team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign the free agent slugger.
  • With several of the winter’s top free agents already off the board, Charlie Wilmoth looks at the top ten names remaining from MLBTR’s original Top 50 free agents ranking from the beginning of the offseason.  Some very notable names remain unsigned, such as Edwin Encarnacion (#2 on the original ranking), Trumbo (#8) and Ivan Nova (#10).
  • Speaking of the free agent market, a reminder: those who entered the 2016-17 MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest can check your progress on our leaderboard.
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Poll: Which Team Will Sign Mark Trumbo?

By Connor Byrne | December 18, 2016 at 9:41am CDT

Free agent first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo’s market may have taken a notable hit Saturday when the Orioles, with whom he spent last season, rescinded their offer to the slugger after negotiations stalled. Baltimore’s proposal was reportedly worth in the neighborhood of $52MM over four years and didn’t include a no-trade clause. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Trumbo is seeking upward of $70MM and full no-trade rights after launching a major league-leading 47 home runs in 2016. While no team has been willing to approach Trumbo’s demands – not to the media’s knowledge, anyway – there hasn’t been a shortage of clubs that have shown interest in him this offseason.

Mark Trumbo

Wherever Trumbo plays next season, it seems unlikely he’ll spend most of his time in the outfield again. Trumbo served as primarily a right fielder last season, but the results were uninspiring (minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating) and subtracted value from the .256/.316/.533 batting line he put together in 667 plate appearances. For his part, Trumbo realizes he’s better suited as a first baseman, where the former Angel, Diamondback and Mariner has played the plurality of his career. The Orioles already have an entrenched solution at first in Chris Davis and, if they are able to work out a deal with Trumbo, would want him back as mainly a designated hitter, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

If Trumbo does add the Orioles to his list of ex-employers, it seems the Rockies could end up as his next team. As they’re currently built, the Rockies don’t have room for a first baseman. Nevertheless, they’re still in on Trumbo even after signing Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70MM contract, per Kubatko. Inking Trumbo would enable the Rockies to send Desmond to the outfield, where he played in Texas last season and where he’d be more valuable, and perhaps pave the way for the team to trade an excess outfielder (Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez) for a starting pitcher. Having already given up their first-round pick in 2017 to sign Desmond, the Rockies would only have to surrender a second-rounder to bring the powerful Trumbo – who rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer – to the hitters’ paradise known as Coors Field.

Aside from the Orioles and Rockies, the Cardinals, Indians, Rangers and Mariners have all been connected to Trumbo in recent weeks. As is the case with the Rockies, the Cardinals wouldn’t have the option of deploying Trumbo at DH because they’re in the National League. They also wouldn’t lose a first-rounder to sign Trumbo, having already parted with their top selection in 2017 to pick up center fielder Dexter Fowler in free agency. The Cards aren’t exactly hard up for infielders, though, which is one reason they’re planning to shift Matt Carpenter to first on a full-time basis. If Trumbo enters the fray, Carpenter would presumably head back to the hot corner. That would turn $10MM third baseman Jhonny Peralta into either an expensive reserve or a trade chip and make first baseman Matt Adams all the more superfluous.

The Indians and Rangers each have obvious needs at first base/DH, though Texas is an unlikely landing spot if you’re to believe president and general manager Jon Daniels that he’d rather find a solution from within than splurge on a free agent. On the other hand, the AL champion Indians are fresh off a deep playoff run – one that proved highly beneficial to their financial situation – and could perhaps turn to Trumbo as a replacement for free agent Mike Napoli and a presumably less expensive (and less effective) alternative to Edwin Encarnacion.

Like Cleveland and Texas, Seattle would have to sacrifice a first-rounder to sign Trumbo. GM Jerry Dipoto suggested last month that he was content with his club’s cast of position players, but he quickly reversed course by entering talks with Trumbo’s camp and placing outfielder Seth Smith on the block. Aside from Nelson Cruz, who’s clearly more cut out to DH, Smith is the Mariners’ most established corner outfield bat. Dealing him would leave the M’s with only unproven options in Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia. Trumbo could factor in as both a corner outfielder (again, not ideal) or a first basemen, then, as the Mariners are set to rely on a tandem of Dan Vogelbach and Danny Valencia at the latter spot. Of course, not only would signing with the Mariners bring about Trumbo’s second stint in Seattle, but it would reunite him with Dipoto. Notably, Dipoto traded Trumbo away when he was the Angels’ GM in 2013.

While reports suggest Trumbo will join one of the aforementioned clubs sometime in the coming months, there’s also the possibility of a mystery team swooping in and landing him. Is there an unknown suitor out there that you think is going to sign Trumbo, or will one of the franchises listed above ultimately add him to its lineup?

(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)

Who will sign Mark Trumbo?
Orioles 26.63% (5,090 votes)
Mystery team 19.60% (3,747 votes)
Rockies 18.92% (3,617 votes)
Cardinals 11.59% (2,215 votes)
Indians 9.71% (1,857 votes)
Rangers 7.53% (1,440 votes)
Mariners 6.02% (1,151 votes)
Total Votes: 19,117

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Mark Trumbo

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Top 10 Remaining Free Agents

By charliewilmoth | December 17, 2016 at 5:30pm CDT

With a number of this offseason’s top free agent market — Yoenis Cespedes, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen — already off the board, here’s a look at what’s left as we head toward the holiday season. Here are the top 10 remaining players, with rankings via MLBTR’s top 50 list from early November.

2. Edwin Encarnacion. While closers have flown off the board in the last few weeks, the market for sluggers has been slower to develop. A variety of AL teams — including the Indians, Athletics, Rangers and Blue Jays — have been connected to Encarnacion, as have the Rockies and Cardinals in the NL. Thus far, there’s been little reported movement toward a deal, with many of Encarnacion’s potential suitors’ reported interest looking tepid at best.

8. Mark Trumbo. At this point, the Orioles likely have extended the best offer to their former slugger, with the Cardinals and Rockies also looming as possibilities. Trumbo is on the long list of sluggers the Indians have reportedly contacted, and the Mariners appear to be a possibility as well.

10. Ivan Nova. There’s been surprisingly little chatter about Nova even as free agent pitchers like Rich Hill and Jeremy Hellickson have disapppeared from the already poorly stocked starting pitching shelves. Of course, just because there’s little reported movement on a player doesn’t mean there isn’t interest, only that not all the interest has been reported. Pirates GM Neal Huntington says his team has been in touch with its former trade deadline acqusition, although it would be a small upset if the Pirates did sign Nova, due to their apparent budgetary issues. The Astros have been connected to a variety of hurlers, but at last check, they reportedly weren’t in on Nova.

12. Jose Bautista. As with Encarnacion, there doesn’t seem to be much good news for Bautista at the moment, who has been connected to a variety of teams that, for various reasons, aren’t likely to give him the sort of contract he might seek. The potential loss of a draft pick for signing Bautista appears likely to be problematic for some potential suitors as well. A return to the Blue Jays could make the most sense, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently argued.

15. Jason Hammel. At last check, Hammel’s camp said there were ten teams pursuing its client. At present, there’s no telling who those teams might be. The Yankees and Marlins have been connected to Hammel, although it’s unclear how much interest the Marlins might still have after adding Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke.

16. Matt Wieters. Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, recently said his client might not sign until late in the offseason, since the market for catchers had been slow. Since then, the Orioles’ signing of Welington Castillo perhaps made it less likely Wieters would return to Baltimore. Fan Rag’s Jon Heyman tweeted today, though, that the Orioles could conceivably still sign Wieters — they like him, and they’ve benefited in the past from late-breaking deals like their 2014 signing of Nelson Cruz. The Braves (who were also connected to Castillo) and Rockies could still make sense as well.

20. Michael Saunders. The Indians reportedly offered Saunders a one-year deal, and the Orioles and Blue Jays have been connected to him as well. At least from the outside, though, Saunders’ market has been quiet.

21. Mike Napoli. Napoli joins a glut of offense-minded corner/DH types on this list, also including Encarnacion, Trumbo, Bautista and Saunders. (The presence of interesting secondary players like Brandon Moss, Chris Carter and Adam Lind also probably hasn’t helped get the market moving.) The Indians have been most strongly connected to Napoli recently.

23. Greg Holland. Unlike many players on this list, Holland could join any number of teams and not cause roster headaches. Bullpens are highly malleable. For that reason, there’s a long list of teams that could gamble on Holland’s upside as he returns from Tommy John surgery. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted last week, that list includes the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Red Sox, Indians, Rays, Mariners, Nationals, Padres, Twins, Mets, Phillies, Tigers, Blue Jays, Royals and Brewers, all of whom have shown at least some degree of interest.

24. Travis Wood. We’ve heard nothing about Wood since the Winter Meetings, when it emerged that the Cubs had been in touch with Wood about the possibility of re-signing. Wood reportedly wants another chance to start after a season in which he posted a 2.95 ERA, albeit with a modest 6.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. One factor that could work in his favor in that quest is his hitting ability, which is well above average for a pitcher; for that reason, it wouldn’t be surprising if he wound up with an NL team.

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Finding The Nationals’ Next Closer

By Jeff Todd | December 13, 2016 at 1:50pm CDT

While the Nationals reportedly pursued both Mark Melancon and Kenley Jansen in free agency, the team reached its stopping point in the bidding and missed on both players. (While Jansen reportedly took a lesser guarantee with the Dodgers, the Nats obviously could have kept moving up. And it’s not clear that D.C. would have included a valuable opt-out in its deal, as did L.A.) Aroldis Chapman is now with the Yankees and Tyler Thornburg plays for the Red Sox. Wade Davis has been traded to the Cubs, who also struck a deal with Koji Uehara.

All said, the options are dwindling. But the Nationals now face less competition for experienced, ninth-inning arms. And the club may not feel completely compelled to land one this winter, preferring instead to continue developing internal arms while bolstering the late-inning corps with a targeted signing or two.

Let’s take a look at the remaining possibilities, which are somewhat more voluminous than one might think:

Free Agency

The clear top options are all off the board, but pieces remain:

  • Greg Holland: There’s no guarantee that Holland will return to being anything like his former self. But he was at one point in the not-so-distant past one of the five or so best relievers in the entire game. And he’s still just 31 years of age. Per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, the sides haven’t yet engaged in earnest, though it could be that the Nats were waiting to see how things played out with Jansen.
  • Brad Ziegler: Though he’s older than and doesn’t throw as hard as your average late-inning hurler, Ziegler continues to produce an enormous number of groundballs and keeps getting results. It might feel disappointing were he to end up in the 9th for the Nats, given the high-octane arms they’ve recently pursued, but he would at least represent a reasonable option at a reasonable commitment — perhaps leaving the team free to explore further upgrades, if warranted, at the deadline.
  • Santiago Casilla & Sergio Romo: Both former Giants righties have spent time locking up wins, though neither managed to hold onto that role for the needy San Francisco organization last year. As with Ziegler, the idea here would be to get a sturdy veteran into the role at a palatable price tag and then allow things to develop from there.
  • Neftali Feliz & Daniel Hudson: These pitchers throw hard and feel more like closer types than the older pitchers noted above, but neither has a recent track record of locking down games.

Trade

While Davis was the most obvious target for teams that didn’t land one of the top three free-agent closers, there are quite a few other names that could conceivably be pursued:

  • David Robertson, White Sox: The Nats reportedly sought to include Robertson in the Adam Eaton deal, and he is perhaps the single most likely target of all the names in this post. The veteran is more solid than great at his anointed job at this point, and he isn’t cheap, but the Nats can afford him and Chicago would no doubt like to cash him in.
  • Alex Colome, Rays: It seems that Tampa Bay will continue to hold out for a big return to move the youngster after his breakout 2016 campaign, and the club isn’t exactly selling off assets, so this remains unlikely.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Tigers: There hasn’t been much discussion of KRod despite the Tigers’ stated intention to get younger, but he’d be an interesting target. He showed some peripheral decline last year, but remains hard to square up (6.9 hits per nine) and still gets solid results.
  • Sean Doolittle & Ryan Madson, Athletics: The A’s aren’t showing much inclination to deal from the pen, but both of these arms could be of interest. Doolittle is the real prize, despite his balky shoulder, as he’s a premium relief arm when healthy and comes with a cheap contract. Madson could fill a need, but he’s expensive and fell off in 2016.
  • Sam Dyson & Jeremy Jeffress, Rangers: It’s still not really clear whether the Rangers have any interest in dealing from their relief staff, but the Nats could take a look at this pair of groundball-heavy relievers. Of course, the Nats have their own worm-burner already on hand, as explored below.
  • Tony Watson, Pirates: We’ve heard some suggestions that the Bucs could make Watson available. The 31-year-old southpaw doesn’t have a lengthy track record of closing, but he did step in last year and notched 15 saves. He has thrived on limited good contact in recent years — hitters have a lifetime .251 BABIP against him — but was a bit more home run prone (14.1% HR/FB, 1.33 HR/9) in 2016 than he had been for several seasons.
  • Kelvin Herrera, Royals: Kansas City remains in a tough spot, but despite dealing Davis, still hasn’t done anything to suggest a full-blown rebuild is afoot at this point. Herrera remains all the more important to the team’s near-term chances after that swap, but he’d also hold immense appeal on the trade market. The power hurler seemingly turned a corner last year, finally both racking up strikeouts (10.8 K/9) and limiting the free passes (1.5 BB/9) in another productive season. With two years of affordable control remaining, he’d require a significant acquisition price.
  • Raisel Iglesias, Reds: The live-armed righty may or may not ever return to the rotation, but if he doesn’t then he could be quite an exciting reliever, as he showed after returning from elbow issues last year. Of course, Cinci would be justified in putting a high asking price on Iglesias, even if his health is in question.
  • Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals: It’s not particularly easy to see the Nats and Cards lining up, and Rosenthal comes with big questions (a worrying loss of control, elbow/shoulder issues) as well as a fairly hefty price tag. But if St. Louis prefers to send him out and the Nats are willing to roll the dice a bit, there’s no denying the upside in Rosenthal’s powerful right arm.
  • Arodys Vizcaino, Braves: Speaking of risk and reward — as with Rosenthal, relating to health and control) — the 26-year-old Vizcaino comes with both. He has produced outstanding results at times, and has a closer’s arsenal, but faltered down the stretch while battling oblique issues. Also like Rosenthal, it’s a bit difficult to imagine the Nats giving up what would be needed while staking such an important job on this type of pitcher.
  • Cody Allen & Andrew Miller (Indians), Dellin Betances (Yankees), Zach Britton (Orioles): These four talented relievers figure to stay with their respective organizations. But perhaps there’s at least some space for a deal if the Nationals shoot for the moon in trade talks.

Internal

As presently constituted, the Nationals’ pen has a grand total of 14 MLB saves to its credit, so there’s an obvious lack of experience in that role. But as skipper Dusty Baker explained (as reported in the above-cited WaPo piece), closers aren’t typically acknowledged as such until they’ve been given and run with an opportunity. As he put it: “Next thing you know, voilà! We’ve got a closer. That’s how it happens.” GM Mike Rizzo, too, suggested that the organization likes its internal slate of possibilities, even if they haven’t yet done that particular job at the game’s highest level.

So, it seems at least possible to imagine that the Nats will use their funds to add elsewhere and pick up a few set-up types via free agency, leaving the ninth in the hands of someone who’s already in the organization. In that case, who might be considered?

  • Shawn Kelley: His three-year, $15MM deal looks like a bargain after the 32-year-old turned in a 2.64 ERA with a sparkling ratio of 12.4 K/9 to 1.7 BB/9 a season ago. The team has long suggested that Kelley’s elbow health may not allow him to take a closing job, but it’s also perhaps arguable that added consistency in routine would be good for him. He did pick up seven saves last year, though he was hardly flawless in the role. Even if he isn’t relied upon to take the ball three days in a row or to provide multi-inning work when it might be preferable, Kelley certainly has the profile of a closer.
  • Blake Treinen: Though not a huge strikeout pitcher, the 28-year-old again induced grounders on more than 60% of the balls put in play against him in 2016. And he provided 67 innings of 2.28 ERA pitching. The biggest question here is in the walks department; Treinen has issued more than four free passes per nine in each of the last two years.
  • Koda Glover: The 23-year-old didn’t maintain his gaudy strikeout tallies in the majors (or, in truth, at Triple-A), but he’s perhaps the closest thing the Nats have to a closer prospect. Credited with a big heater and power slider, Glover may be the guy in D.C. in the future, but it’s far from clear whether he’s ready for the job right now.
  • Sammy Solis: There are some health questions here, perhaps making a move to the ninth unwise. But Solis brings a bulldog mentality to the hill and pitched to a 2.41 ERA in 41 frames last year. His 10.3 K/9 were accompanied by 4.6 BB/9, though, and Solis arguably remains too important to the club as a lefty set-up piece to take a shot on him in the closer’s role out of the gates.
  • Others: Before he was dealt, starting pitching prospect Reynaldo Lopez might’ve made sense as a conversion candidate. And power southpaw Felipe Rivero could be in contention had he not been shipped in the deadline deal for Mark Melancon. But there are other interesting, somewhat analogous pieces on hand. Righty A.J. Cole still seems to be on the outside of the rotation competition, but is almost certainly ready for a full chance at the majors; if his stuff plays up in the pen, it’s not inconceivable that he could emerge. And forgotten man Trevor Gott made it onto the map with a huge fastball. Though he saw minimal major league time in 2016 and wasn’t great at Triple-A, it’s possible he could turn the corner and take a crack at the job at some point.

Just for fun, we’ll end this look with a simple poll. Which general approach do you think the Nats are most likely to pursue in addressing the ninth inning? (Link for app users.)

Which Is The Likeliest Approach For The Nationals To Find Their Next Closer?
Trade 54.91% (3,676 votes)
Internal 28.36% (1,899 votes)
Free Agency 16.73% (1,120 votes)
Total Votes: 6,695
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MLBTR Originals

By Connor Byrne | December 11, 2016 at 8:10am CDT

MLBTR’s original content from Winter Meetings week:

  • In a fascinating discussion between a former major league reliever and a current one, MLBTR contributor Burke Badenhop spoke with Tyler Thornburg after the Brewers traded him to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Badenhop, who also pitched for those two teams, was teammates with Thornburg in Milwaukee in 2013.
  • With Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon off the board, Jason Martinez broke down the remaining free agent closers and those who could be on the trading block. He also highlighted which teams could still be in the market for a ninth-inning solution.
  • Charlie Wilmoth polled readers on which big-money free agent signing that happened during the meetings will work out the best. The choices: Chapman (Yankees; five years, $86MM), Dexter Fowler (Cardinals; five years, $82.5MM), Ian Desmond (Rockies; five years, $70MM) and Melancon (Giants; four years, $62MM).
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Poll: Which Big Winter Meetings Signing Was The Best?

By charliewilmoth | December 10, 2016 at 2:50pm CDT

The Winter Meetings saw a pair of high-profile trades, but also four free agent signings in excess of $60MM. Of the four teams to open their checkbooks, which made the best move?

Aroldis Chapman, five years, $86MM, Yankees. The Yankees brought back their former closer to rejoin Dellin Betances to form perhaps the best setup/closer tandems in baseball. There’s no questioning Chapman’s dominance, and a lefty with three-digit heat and a 15.5 K/9 is a unique asset indeed. But the Yankees also gave Chapman an opt-out after three years, one that presumably won’t require him to forgo his $11MM signing bonus. And they gave him a no-trade clause through the first three seasons as well, plus a limited no-trade through the last two. As Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues pointed out after the deal, it’s possible the opt-out will arrive just as the Yankees have assembled their best team in years. Then there’s also Chapman’s troubling personal history.

Dexter Fowler, five years, $82.5MM, Cardinals. The Cardinals filled their center field vacancy with Fowler, who batted .276/.393/.447 last season with the Cubs. In so doing, the Cardinals also avoided a trade market that’s been ugly for buyers, as the Nationals’ trade for Adam Eaton perhaps demonstrated. The Cards are buying Fowler’s age-31 through -35 seasons, years in which an athletic player might well remain productive. They did give up the 19th overall pick in the draft with the signing, though, and even the Cardinals have characterized the dollar figure required to land Fowler as “over the top.”

Ian Desmond, five years, $70MM, Rockies. In what was surely the most surprising of the four signings, the Rockies landed a veteran leader who reinvented himself as an outfielder in an excellent comeback season in Texas. Desmond’s defensive flexibility will give the Rockies options as they build their team for the years ahead, and his 20-homer offense should benefit from Coors Field. The Rockies did, however, give up the first protected pick of the draft — No. 11 overall — to make the signing, costing the team eight-figure value not already included in the contract. And the team didn’t look like a contender in 2016 and might or might not be one in 2017, raising questions about whether now was the right time for them to pursue this kind of veteran talent.

Mark Melancon, four years, $62MM, Giants. The Giants were expected to pursue a closer, and they dodged higher-dollar targets like Chapman or Kenley Jansen (and the loss of a draft pick Jansen would require) to sign the 31-year-old Melancon. Melancon’s results in the last four seasons are indisputably terrific — the highest ERA he’s had in that time has been 2.23. He also has terrific control (with a 1.5 BB/9 last season) and routinely posts great ground-ball numbers (54.2% last year). He doesn’t have a typical profile for a dominant closer, however, with only modest velocity (91.8 MPH average fastball velocity last year, down about a mile from 2013) and a strikeout rate that’s only a bit more than half of Chapman’s. Long-term reliever contracts have historically been dicey propositions, and it remains to be seen if Melancon can dodge the trends. Melancon’s deal also contains considerable value not included in the $62MM total in the form of a no-trade clause and an opt-out after the first two years.

What do you think? Which team’s new contract is the best of the four?

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