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MLBTR Originals

Extension Candidate: Josh Harrison

By Steve Adams | September 11, 2014 at 8:36pm CDT

Asked to create a list of candidates for the 2014 NL batting title five months ago, few would have seriously suggested Pirates utilityman Josh Harrison. However, it’s September 11th, and the .318 mark that Harrison carried into the day paced the National League. A decline in performance for Pedro Alvarez and an eventual season-ending injury for the slugging third baseman have opened the door for Harrison to serve as the club’s everyday option at the hot corner down the stretch — an opportunity on which he has capitalized. Though the 27-year-old Harrison had never even topped 276 plate appearances prior to this season, he’s tallied 472 and should finish the season well north of 500.

"<strongThe Pirates acquired Harrison with little fanfare in the 2009 trade that sent Tom Gorzelanny and John Grabow to the Cubs and watched him produce steady batting average and on-base percentage marks as he ascended the minor league ranks. However, while his glovework graded out favorably heading into the season, he also carried a career slash line of just .250/.282/.367 into 2014.

Harrison hasn’t drastically changed his approach at the plate — his swing and contact rates are similar to his previous marks — but he’s slightly increased his walk rate, cut down on his pop-ups and laced line drives at a career-high rate. On top of that, Harrison has found some power despite never hitting more than six homers in a minor league season. He’s swatted 13 long balls and posted a .196 isolated power mark even though he plays at PNC Park, which is known to significantly diminish right-handed pop. The end result has been an outstanding .318/.351/.514 batting line to go along with those 13 homers, 17 steals and strong defensive marks.

Harrison has cleared three years of Major League service time now and will be eligible for arbitration this offseason. Clearly, an NL batting title, 15 or so homers and 20 or so steals will help his agents at Millennium Sports Management make a strong case. However, first-time arb salaries are based on a player’s entire career to that point, unlike second- and third-time arb salaries which are based more on a player’s most recent season. With the agents likely touting an elite platform season and the team likely pointing to earlier seasons to drive the cost down, a multi-year contract might be worth examining. Pittsburgh would get cost certainty, while Harrison would receive financial security in the event that he does not replicate his brilliant 2014.

Of course, from the Pirates’ point of view, they may look at Harrison as a player whose most consistent attributes are defense and baserunning — two aspects that, while valuable, are not highly rewarded in arbitration. While he does have a career-high in homers, the Pirates could also look to Harrison’s average fly-ball distance of 279.98 feet — 136th in the Majors according to BaseballHeatMaps.com — and the fact that seven of his 13 homers fall into the “just enough” category on ESPN’s Hit Tracker. Those two stats suggest that he may have difficulty sustaining this level of power, which would subsequently deflate his arb prices in future cases. A low-payroll team like the Pirates may express hesitancy at over-committing in the event that his power numbers won’t stay this high.

As such, Harrison and the Pirates may have trouble reaching common ground should either side look to pursue a long-term deal that buys out free agent years. The Pirates will cite Harrison’s short track record and reliance on defense and baserunning to provide value. Harrison’s agents, meanwhile, will likely position him as a breakout player and could point to five- or six-year pacts signed by other infielders in the past year or so. However, even a similar late bloomer like Matt Carpenter had an excellent 2012 season and a fourth-place MVP finish in 2013 before signing his six-year, $52MM contract. Harrison has just one elite season.

While Harrison isn’t the first player to jump from utility player to All-Star (though the feat certainly isn’t common), few, if any players have found themselves in his situation and his service bracket and ultimately inked a long-term deal. A look at extensions for infielders with three to four years of service time shows few deals that serve as comparables. Pablo Sandoval signed a three-year, $17.5MM to buy out his arb years at the same stage of his career, but he had a much better offensive profile at that point. Elvis Andrus’ original three-year, $14.4MM extension was signed when he had an even three years of Major League service. He lacked an offensive season in the vein of Harrison’s excellent 2014, but he had a longer track record of providing value.

The Pirates are one of baseball’s most cost-conscious teams, and as such there would seem to be some benefit to securing Harrison’s arbitration paydays, and for a player with no track record prior to 2014, I’d think that holds some appeal to him as well. Perhaps the two sides could work out a three-year deal in the $15-16MM range to provide Harrison with a lifetime of financial security but still position him to hit free agency at a relatively young age in search of a significant payday. While Pittsburgh would undoubtedly have interest in adding a club option that could push the total value of the contract into the Michael Brantley range (four years, $25MM) if exercised, that doesn’t seem to be a worthwhile trade-off for player and agent, even if the buyout was fairly significant.

Beyond Harrison’s three arbitration years, the situation feels to this writer like one in which the team’s lack of margin for error (due to payroll constraints) makes betting on Harrison’s surprise breakout a bit too risky to pay him like the late-blooming star he could very well be. Of course, there’s risk for the team to pass on a long-term deal as well; if Harrison is capable of sustaining something close to this level of production, his price tag on a long-term deal a year from now could exceed that of Carpenter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Extension Candidates MLBTR Originals Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Josh Harrison

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Asdrubal Cabrera

By Jeff Todd | September 8, 2014 at 9:25pm CDT

Indians-turned-Nationals middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera will finish his eighth year of MLB action at just 28 years of age, presenting a rare youthful free agent option. He can hit and play up the middle. Yet he left Cleveland as something of a disappointment, and has not generated nearly as much hype as was once expected heading into his first crack at free agency. Once expectations are moderated for reality, however, it is apparent that Cabrera remains a rather intriguing player to watch on the coming market.

MLB: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Cabrera’s free agent case remains difficult to figure. Over the 2007-12 period, he slashed .279/.342/.416 while manning an up-the-middle defensive spot (mostly, shortstop). Though advanced metrics never viewed him as even an average fielder, Cabrera delivered some value on the basepaths and was at least a solid, above-average regular in the aggregate.

That account of Cabrera took something of a turn, however, more recently. Over 978 plate appearances with Cleveland since the start of 2013, Cabrera’s OPS fell beneath the .700 level, making for a below-average bat that significantly reduced his overall appeal.

Nevertheless, in need of a veteran infielder down the stretch, the Nationals made a move to acquire Cabrera at the trade deadline. Notably, the Indians agreed to pay all of Cabrera’s salary in the deal, while acquiring an interesting but little-hyped prospect in Zach Walters. On a busy deadline day, the swap looked like a relatively low-impact, gap-filling move for Washington.

Since heading to the NL East-leading Nats, however, Cabrera has looked energized. He owns a .252/.341/.443 slash in the first 133 National League plate appearances of his career, including five home runs and two stolen bases. His resulting 115 OPS+ looks much more like the marks he was putting up in his heyday. Nearly as importantly, perhaps, Cabrera has looked comfortable at second, racking up 284 errorless innings at the position.

Without question, Cabrera’s late-season run of success at the plate will have a positive impact on his free agency. He has at least suggested the possibility that he is still capable of being the hitter of old; whether he’s convinced scouts, of course, remains to be seen.

The defensive returns, on the other hand, are somewhat more ambiguous. To be sure, proving that he is capable of solidly handling the keystone is a nice feather in Cabrera’s hat. At the same time, misplays have not been the major knock on his glove. Range is the primary concern, and he’s continued (obviously, in a short sample) to receive well-below-average marks in that respect.

So, where does Cabrera fit into the middle-infield market? Things are somewhat more crowded over at shortstop, where J.J. Hardy probably sets the standard and Jed Lowrie and Stephen Drew also present possible starting-caliber options. And that assumes that Hanley Ramirez is pursued primarily as a third baseman; if enough serious bidders look at him as a shortstop, the market would look even more crowded.

But Cabrera is perhaps best positioned to benefit from a lack of options at second, given his arguably superior bat (to all but Ramirez, at least) and recent experience at the keystone. Clubs looking to add a new second bagger will find limited possibilities on the market; as things stand, Emilio Bonifacio is probably the most appealing candidate.

Cabrera also has added appeal given that he will not turn 29 until the offseason, making him the youngest shortstop-capable player available to the highest bidder. That holds significant value, particularly when viewed alongside the fact that he does not have any significant recent injury history. Cabrera will also come free and clear of draft compensation, as his mid-season trade ensures that Washington will not be able to make him a qualifying offer. Particularly given the down years at the plate from Hardy (at least in terms of power production), Lowrie (who has been better in the second half), and Drew (who has been awful since his mid-season signing), Cabrera stacks up reasonably well.

In the aggregate, though Cabrera may never take the final step forward to become a truly premium ballplayer, he has shown the ability to produce at his earlier levels and should draw fairly significant and potentially broad interest.  Depending on his performance down the stretch and in the post-season, he still has some capacity to climb up free agent boards and become a sought-after asset heading out of the 2014 season.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Newsstand Washington Nationals Asdrubal Cabrera

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Poll: Orioles’ Qualifying Offers

By Jeff Todd | September 8, 2014 at 6:00pm CDT

It’s been a quiet day on the transactional front, so a poll seems in order. Looking ahead at free agency, one of the more interesting situations involves the Orioles’ crop of pending free agents. The club has several key pieces of the lineup set to reach the open market: Nick Markakis, Nelson Cruz, and J.J. Hardy. But the question remains whether some or all will receive qualifying offers.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at Markakis as a possible free agent back in May, noting that the 30-year-old’s hot start could lead to a significant turnaround in value. While he has not maintained that pace, Markakis has put up a .278/.339/.387 slash that constitutes better-than league-average production. Defensive metrics are not in love with his glove, but credit him with improvements over recent seasons. Also aiding Markakis as he looks ahead to a new deal is the fact that the upcoming free agent market appears rather thin in the corner outfield, especially in younger options. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently suggested, the club could pay him a $2MM buyout on his $17.5MM mutual option but still make him the QO.

Cruz, meanwhile, has done nothing but rake since joining the O’s on a one-year, $8MM pact. That deal cost the club a compensation pick, but looks like a bargain in hindsight. Cruz leads the league with 39 long balls and has slashed a robust .262/.331/.532 triple-slash in 596 plate appearances. But looking forward, he is 34 years old and is a limited defensive player (though he has rated out as an approximately average corner outfielder in limited action this year). On the other hand, even if Baltimore would rather not pay Cruz $15MM next year, might the qualifying offer be worth it? Having missed his chance to cash in on a multi-year deal last year, Cruz could well be motivated to take another crack at a player’s market. And if he does take the offer, that seems an attractive-enough rate for a single season commitment.

Then there is Hardy, who is quite an interesting player in his own right. The shortstop continues to create immense value with the glove while delivering league-average offense. Though his power numbers have taken a big step back this year, Hardy has managed to compensate with a higher batting average and on-base percentage. (Though he has ridden a career-high .332 BABIP, Hardy has also raised his line-drive percentage this year.) All said, the 32-year-old is almost certainly the best shortstop on the upcoming market, if one views Hanley Ramirez as a third baseman at this point. Just look at these current season, three-year, and five-year comparisons to fellow soon-to-be free agents Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Stephen Drew. It still seems somewhat hard to imagine that Baltimore will let him reach the open market without restriction, especially given that the long-anticipated move of Manny Machado to shortstop could once again be delayed (and would, in any event, simply open a hole at the hot corner).

So, which players are likely to receive a qualifying offer from the O’s? (Select all that apply.)

Which Orioles Will Get Qualifying Offers?
Cruz 46.78% (6,247 votes)
Hardy 28.37% (3,789 votes)
Markakis 24.85% (3,318 votes)
Total Votes: 13,354
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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When Agents Get Played

By Zachary Links | September 7, 2014 at 10:56pm CDT

Baseball players jumping from one agency to another is nothing new.  In fact, it seems there are some who will change affiliations more frequently than they change their underwear.  When agents and baseball executives talk about an instance of that happening, they often use a phrase that conjures up images of evildoers chasing ivory-rich elephants in sub-Saharan Africa: “player poaching.”  That terminology focuses on the unscrupulous agents who make it common practice to steal players out from under their colleagues and while that certainly takes place, not every case is exactly alike and things are never that cut and dry in the agency world.  Sometimes, it’s the players who are acting unscrupulously.  In the case of some minor leaguers, they’re employing two, three, or four agents at once in an effort to rack up as many gifts and favors as possible.

Plenty of stories have been written about individual cases of players being lured from one agency to another, but there hasn’t been much discussion about players employing several agencies simultaneously.  There’s no way to quantify how many minor leaguers are engaging in this practice, but upwards of a dozen agents speaking on the condition of anonymity acknowledged that it’s quite commonplace.

A few years ago, one agent called a club to discuss the terms of his minor league client’s release.  The exec, in turn, informed the agent that he had already spoken to the player’s representative just hours ago.  The agent was shocked, but not surprised.  His client had been stringing him along while actually working with a different agent.

“You see this a lot with guys from the Dominican Republic and in the Latin markets,” the agent said, echoing a sentiment shared by many in the field.  “They don’t understand that there are rules and limits as to what an agent can give you.  So they’ll employ two or three agents and they all have regular contact with the player.  You have one giving them money, one giving them equipment…I’ve seen cases of guys having three or four agents at one time.  There’s really no one policing it.”

Lower-caliber minor leaguers can juggle multiple agents without oversight because they do not have to fill out an agent designation form with the MLBPA until they reach the 40-man roster.  Nearly every agent that spoke with MLBTR had a story of a player using multiple agents, whether it happened to them, a partner within their agency, or someone else in the field.  As one might imagine, the victimized agents tend to find out about these things in strange ways.

One agent visited his client’s minor league clubhouse only to find a Foot Locker stock room’s worth of free shoes crammed into the player’s tiny locker.  The abundance of free swag was the baseball equivalent of a woman finding a lipstick stain in an unfamiliar shade of red on her husband’s collar.  That agent’s suspicions were confirmed soon after – his client had been taking advantage of multiple player reps.

Another veteran agent told MLBTR’s Steve Adams that he saw a little-known Single-A player who already had representation sign on with another agency because he was given an endorsement deal from Easton.  When his original agent asked the player what had happened, the player replied that there was nothing in writing or even a check, just a $10K cash payment.  Major equipment companies typically don’t dole out lucrative deals to unheralded minor leaguers and they certainly don’t do it with a burlap sack of money.  It’s more than likely that the player’s allegiance was simply paid for by the rival agent.

Nearly every agent that spoke with MLBTR made two generalizations on the topic at hand.  First, the players doing this, more often than not, are international prospects.  Secondly, even though plenty of savvy veterans have been fooled, the greener agents are more susceptible to getting played.

“I don’t want to say that it’s a B.S. excuse for agents, but I feel that anytime a guy is working you for equipment and other crap, that should send up a red flag for you,” said one experienced agent.

Even though the MLBPA doesn’t oversee the non 40-man players, there are multiple ways that agents can protect themselves.  Five veteran agents told MLBTR that they require all of their clients to fill out agent designation forms, regardless of their status.  Agents can still submit these forms to the union and if a player is registered with more than one representative, all parties involved are notified.  From that point, the union will step in and mediate.  Of course, at that point, an agent might not even bother putting up a a fight.

“I believe it takes a certain kind of makeup to succeed.  I don’t care how good you are, it just doesn’t matter.  I’ve seen all kinds of ridiculous talent in this game but if they’ve got a ten cent head, it’s probably not going to work out,” one agent said.  “That doesn’t mean they have to be smart, but with certain kind of guy you can tell he ain’t gonna make it if he’s playing these games and worrying about [gifts].”

Agents say they’ll only engage in business with players that are of high character.  The aforementioned player who asks for a pair of spikes and $200 before forming a partnership?  He’s probably not a guy you want to be involved with.  It could also be a bad sign when you’re talking with handlers rather than the player himself.

“The further you get away from dealing directly with a player by dealing with a chain of people around him, the more likely there is to be abuse,” longtime agent Barry Meister said.  “When you’re recruiting a young player, and talking to his family, you have to be sure the person you’re speaking with is the person who is making the decision. I suspect that you’ll have far more luck going directly to the player than talking to a handler or someone in the entourage or the guy’s brother.”

The end game of staffing multiple agents is almost always to rack up as much money and as many gifts as possible.  Agents who want to avoid being turned into a walking Amazon wishlist can protect themselves by complying with MLBPA regulations.  The union stipulates that an agent cannot spend more than $2K on any single player within a year, a mechanism designed to help cut back on player poaching.  Staying inside of that dollar figure also leaves agents less susceptible to getting worked over or, at the very least, lessens some of the sting if their minor leaguer does get into bed with other agents.

Newer player reps would be wise to take that advice because the consensus amongst agents is that the union won’t be cracking down on guys simultaneously rostering multiple agents.  While agents appreciate their voices being heard on matters with the MLBPA – something widely attributed to the late Michael Weiner –  the union, they say, has bigger fish to fry and probably doesn’t have the resources to police every instance of a minor leaguer acting unethically.  Also, in many cases, the players are staffing multiple agents in part because they’re new to playing the game at a professional level and don’t really have a grasp on how a player-agent partnership works.  At the end of the day, the importance of pre-screening goes both ways for players and agents who are looking for a productive and honest business relationship.

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MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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MLBTR Originals

By edcreech | September 7, 2014 at 7:30pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • Tim Dierkes revised MLBTR’s 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings and Max Scherzer and Jon Lester remain atop the leaderboard, but seven of the eight other positions changed hands.
  • Zach Links examined the practice of players employing multiple agents. “You see this a lot with guys from the Dominican Republic and in the Latin markets,” an agent, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Zach. “They don’t understand that there are rules and limits as to what an agent can give you. So they’ll employ two or three agents and they all have regular contact with the player. You have one giving them money, one giving them equipment…I’ve seen cases of guys having three or four agents at one time. There’s really no one policing it.”
  • Jeff Todd issued a Free Agent Stock Watch on the upcoming class of closers scheduled to hit the market this winter.
  • Steve Adams listed the notable September contract extensions signed over the past three seasons.
  • Brad Johnson asked MLBTR readers whether the Mets will retain manager Terry Collins. Approximately 56% of you believe the club should find a new field boss for 2015.
  • Jeff asked MLBTR readers to name the best August acquisition. Nearly one-third of you chose the A’s obtaining Adam Dunn.
  • Steve hosted the weekly live chat.
  • Zach gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In. 
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MLBTR Originals

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Closers

By Jeff Todd | September 5, 2014 at 9:14am CDT

Over the winter, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth took a look at the changing closer market, documenting the dwindling dollars and years available for 9th-inning relievers. As we approach now approach a new offseason, a different type of market change — related only in part to the broader trend — has taken hold. Namely, the actual group of soon-to-be free agents with closing experience has seen many individual stock drops.

MLB: Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees

Let’s have a look at the “closer” portion of MLBTR’s 2015 MLB free agent list (including only those players who, in my opinion, are likely to become free agents): Jason Grilli, Casey Janssen, David Robertson, Francisco Rodriguez, Sergio Romo, Rafael Soriano, and Koji Uehara. Listed under right-handed relievers are a few other names with significant closing experience: Heath Bell, Jim Johnson, J.J. Putz, and Jose Veras.

Heading into the year, this looked like a pretty strong group of late-inning arms. Among them were some of the more established closers — and, indeed, better relief pitchers, role aside — in the game. But the group has seen some pretty significant shifts in value that make it look much less impactful on the whole.

Here are my assessments of the value movement on these players:

Trending Down

Grilli: coming off 2.70 ERA, 33-save year, lost Pirates closer job and was traded to Angels; has performed well since in set-up role

Janssen: missed significant portion of early year with injury, ended with 3.72 ERA and will cede time to younger players in September; has never really seemed to fit traditional closer model, and now features a plummeting strikeout rate (5.4 K/9)

Romo: after four-straight lights out years, was relieved of end-of-game duties and owns 3.98 ERA on season

Uehara: typically dominant year took dramatic, late-season downturn at inopportune time for 39-year-old

Bell, Johnson, Putz, Veras: look, there’s a reason that these guys fell off of the (admittedly subjective) “closer” list, which is that they all struggled mightily for lengthy stretches

Holding Steady

Robertson: on the one hand, Robertson has proven that he can handle closing in New York after taking over for a legend; on the other, his peripherals are in line with his career numbers but his ERA (2.92) is higher than in recent years

Soriano: there’s an argument to be made that he has raised his stock with his strikeouts back on the rise, but an offsetting jump in free passes has kept his K:BB ratio the same, and on the whole he has not done much to change the fact that he is a good-but-not-great reliever

Rising Up

Rodriguez: after surprisingly jumping into the closer’s role in the season’s early days, Rodriguez has locked down 39 saves and worked to a 3.00 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9; since signing a minor league deal before 2013, K-Rod owns a 2.87 ERA

—

So what does this all mean? It seems to me that the major beneficiary of the market shake-out is Robertson, who is by far the youngest of these closers and is the only one who (as things stand) will enter free agency with both an impeccable recent track record and few real questions moving forward. Though Uehara has the most dominant recent record of this group, his well-documented recent struggles and advanced age should significantly dampen his market.

Those dynamics put the Yankees in an interesting spot. On the one hand, the club should now face greater competition to bring back its Mariano Rivera replacement. On the other, it might justifiably utilize the qualifying offer to buy back some leverage. The team has already shown a willingness to do just that with a closer (Soriano), and would up the ante for other teams that might consider a run at Robertson.

The possibility that Robertson’s market will itself be suppressed by a QO paints an even more sobering picture of the overall expectations. It is worth wondering whether any of the other above-listed players will be able to command a significant, multi-year guarantee. The one player who is clearly rising, Rodriguez, could certainly land a reasonable salary over two years (he is, somehow, still only 32), but it is hard to see a bidding war emerging there. No doubt some of the others will take smaller average annual values to get a second year, but pillow contracts could abound.

Remember, last year’s upper-middle closer market settled in the range of two years and between $9.5MM and $15.5MM. And that was for pitchers like Edward Mujica, Grant Balfour, Fernando Rodney, and Joaquin Benoit who had much stronger cases than this year’s crop. Notably, even those pitchers were not able to beat the earnings of high-performing non-closers. And, if anything, the high-profile struggles of players like Balfour and Johnson have further eroded the notion of paying big dollars for relievers whose primary calling card is 9th-inning experience.

This year’s market could have looked similar: a few strong performances from familiar players, a few emerging/rebounding names. Instead, we’ve seen mostly steps in the wrong direction from pitchers with closing time on their resume. And that is even before considering demand. Many of the clubs that could have open closing positions — for instance, the Orioles, White Sox, Rangers, Nationals, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, and Rockies — seem more likely to stick with veterans, elevate internal options, or avoid spending big dollars on an older reliever.

Now may be a good time to find out whether teams will place any significant premium at all on that experience going forward.

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Free Agent Stock Watch MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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Recent September Extensions

By Steve Adams | September 3, 2014 at 3:50pm CDT

September is historically a down month on the trade front, as players acquired after Aug. 31 are not eligible to join an acquiring club’s postseason roster. However, if recent history is any indicator, we can expect a few extensions to be hammered out over the next four weeks. Here’s a look back at some notable September extensions over the past three seasons…

2013

  • Padres sign Will Venable to a two-year, $8.5MM extension. — Venable had a breakout season in terms of his power production last year, so the Padres likely felt fortunate to lock in his remaining arbitration salaries, as further 20-homer/20-steal seasons would cause the price to soar. Unfortunately for the team, Venable’s decision to opt for security looks wise, in hindsight, as he’s batted just .220/.282/.319 in the first year of the deal — surprisingly low production from a player who had posted a wRC+ mark of 99 or better in each year of his career.
  • Marlins sign Greg Dobbs to a one-year, $1.75MM extension. — This extension drew plenty of public scrutiny, as Dobbs’ on-field performance in 2013 (.228/.303/.300) didn’t warrant the deal. It was eventually reported that owner Jeffrey Loria negotiated the deal without consulting former president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest. The Dobbs extension would be one of many stories that were referenced when describing the rift between Loria and Beinfest at the time of Beinfest’s dismissal.
  • Giants sign Hunter Pence to a five-year, $90MM extension. — The most notable of any extension in this post, Pence was positioned to be one of the top free agents in the 2013-14 class, but he took what looked to be market value at the time to remain in San Francisco. As it turns out, the market for outfield bats was more aggressive than many had thought, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo landing seven-year deals worth $153MM and $131MM, respectively. Based on that context and Pence’s brilliant 2014 campaign — he’s hitting .296/.348/.482 with 19 homers and a hefty 5.4 fWAR/4.0 rWAR — the contract looks good after about one year.

2012

  • Padres sign Chris Denorfia to a two-year, $4.25MM extension. — Denorfia’s strong season led former GM Josh Byrnes to lock in his final arb years with this modest extension, and Denorfia made the deal look like a good one in 2013 by hitting a solid .279/.337/.395 with a career-high 10 homers and excellent numbers against lefties. His production fell off in the contract’s second year, but the Padres’ triumvirate of interim GMs were still able to flip him to Seattle for outfielder Abraham Almonte and minor league righty Stephen Kohlscheen.
  • Rangers sign Colby Lewis to a one-year, $2MM extension. — Lewis went down for the season in mid-July back in 2012, but he’d been enjoying a strong season and was expected to return for the 2013 campaign, making a $2MM salary a potential bargain for Texas. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Lewis had multiple setbacks and wasn’t able to take the hill the following season, but it’s not hard to see why they were interested in the low-risk deal; Lewis had turned in a 3.93 ERA over his previous 506 1/3 innings with the Rangers.

2011

  • Cardinals sign Chris Carpenter to a two-year, $21MM extension. — Carpenter led the league in innings pitched in 2011 and had been generally excellent over the previous three seasons, prompting quite a bit of praise for this deal. He, in fact, restructured his contract and took what most expected to be less money in the long run, giving up a $15MM club option in favor of this two-year deal. Of course, Carpenter would sadly throw just 17 more innings in his career before injuries forced him to retire. While it looked good at the time, this deal didn’t pan out.
  • Mets sign Tim Byrdak to a one-year, $1MM extension. — While the extension wasn’t particularly memorable and didn’t have a large impact on the 2012 Mets, Byrdak fired 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball and was a strong weapon against lefties, making him worth his modest salary.
  • Cardinals sign Lance Berkman to a one-year, $12MM extension. — After a huge rebound campaign in 2011, Big Puma was rewarded with this contract, but he totaled just 97 plate appearances the following season due to knee injuries. He wasn’t able to recover with the Rangers in 2013 and retired following that season, putting an end to an excellent career.
  • Marlins sign Omar Infante to a two-year, $8MM extension. — This contract paid dividends in the sense that Infante was largely excellent for the Marlins over the next half-season before being dealt to the Tigers along with Anibal Sanchez. That trade netted former top prospect Jacob Turner, catcher Rob Brantly and lefty Brian Flynn — a respectable haul at the time but one that now looks lackluster. Miami dealt Turner to the Cubs for a pair of low-level relievers this season, and Brantly has been passed over in favor of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
  • White Sox sign Sergio Santos to a three-year, $8.25MM extension. — Signed at the end of a breakout season as the White Sox closer, Santos found himself traded to the Blue Jays for pitching prospect Nestor Molina that offseason. Molina hasn’t done much and was recently outrighted by the ChiSox, but they probably feel fortunate not to have had to pay Santos the money he was guaranteed, as shoulder injuries led to a 5.23 ERA and just 51 innings pitched over the life of his three guaranteed years with Toronto.
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2015 Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | September 2, 2014 at 12:38pm CDT

Less than one month remains in the 2014 regular season, so our 2015 Free Agent Power Rankings are starting to resemble the beginning of the Top 50 Free Agents list, which will come out in early November after teams make qualifying offers.  Click here for the previous edition of the power rankings, and click here for the full list of 2015 free agents.

1.  Max Scherzer.  Scherzer has a 3.07 ERA in eight starts since the power rankings were last published.  The 30-year-old ranks second in the AL with 220 strikeouts, fifth with 187 2/3 innings, 13th with a 3.26 ERA, and 5th with a 2.84 SIERA.  His Tigers are a good bet for the playoffs, which would mark Scherzer’s fourth consecutive postseason.  Scherzer could secure the largest free agent contract ever signed by a pitcher, a record currently held by C.C. Sabathia’s seven-year, $161MM deal from six years ago.  More recently, free agent Masahiro Tanaka required a $175MM commitment, but $20MM of that was paid to his former team.  Both of those pitchers received opt-out clauses, a likely goal for Scherzer.

2.  Jon Lester.  Lester ranks fourth in the AL with a 2.55 ERA, fifth with 186 strikeouts, sixth with 183 2/3 innings, and eighth with a 3.06 SIERA.  He hasn’t missed a beat since being traded to the Athletics at the July deadline.  Because of the trade, Lester boasts a free agency advantage of not being eligible for a qualifying offer after the season.  He’s headed to the playoffs for the fifth time in his career.  Lester is only six months older than Scherzer, and some teams shopping in the high-end of the free agent pitching market may prefer him.  The Red Sox told Lester they’ll be aggressive in trying to sign him as a free agent, and the lefty says he’s prioritizing his family’s happiness over money.

3.  James Shields.  Shields currently leads all free agent starters with 192 innings, but Scherzer could temporarily overtake him Thursday with a decent outing.  At 33 years old in December, Shields belongs slightly below the Scherzer/Lester tier in what is shaping up to be the best trio of free agent starters since this website began nine years ago.  Shields is looking to reach the playoffs for the fourth time in his career with a Royals club that hasn’t been there since 1985.  ESPN’s Buster Olney and WEEI’s Rob Bradford have suggested the Red Sox could make a play for Shields.  A four-year deal for Shields would be easier to stomach than six or seven years for Scherzer or Lester, although a strong finish could give Big Game James a case for five years.

4.  Hanley Ramirez.  Ramirez spent a few weeks on the DL in August for an oblique strain.  It was his first DL stint of the year, though he missed around 15 games previously due to various ailments.  The 30-year-old is beginning to look injury-prone, and his bat will be less impressive if he doesn’t stick at shortstop for most of his next contract.  The game is flush with cash, but is this a $100MM player?

5.  Pablo Sandoval.  Sandoval has proven to be a useful player who hits for average with slightly above-average pop and surprisingly solid defense given his physique.  He’s a better hitter than Chase Headley and is much younger than Aramis Ramirez, so Sandoval is the best third baseman available.  The Giants seem likely to make a play to re-sign him.

6.  Victor Martinez.  Martinez has been on fire since our last set of power rankings, hitting .344/.433/.526 in 180 plate appearances.  He’s been among the best hitters in all of baseball this year, and no other free agent comes close to his 2014 production.  Martinez is mostly a designated hitter at this point, and he’ll turn 36 in December.  He’ll probably find a team willing to take their chances on a three-year deal, possibly in excess of the $45MM Carlos Beltran received.

7.  Yasmani Tomas.  Last month, Rusney Castillo set a Cuban free agent record in signing a seven-year, $72.5MM contract with the Red Sox.  Tomas is a different type of outfielder, a corner guy with middle of the order power.  He’s also younger, at 24 years old in November.  The Phillies have been linked to Tomas in the early going, but he still has to be cleared by the Office of Foreign Assets Control before becoming a free agent.  Once that happens, Tomas could have the widest market of anyone on this list given his age.

8.  Melky Cabrera.  Cabrera’s solid campaign continues, as he’s hitting .305/.355/.464 in 605 plate appearances.  He recently turned 30 and figures to aim for a five-year deal.  He may only achieve three or four, owing to subpar defense, a potential qualifying offer, and his 2012 suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs.

9.  Russell Martin.  By measure of Fangraphs wins above replacement, Martin has been roughly as valuable as Jose Bautista this year while playing in 70% as many games.  Martin has been one of the best catchers in all of baseball, with an uncharacteristic .414 OBP and his typical excellent defensive work.  It’s hard to find even a surefire starter among the other free agent catchers, so the 31-year-old Martin is about to cash in.  A four-year deal north of $50MM seems possible.

10.  Nelson Cruz.  Cruz leads MLB with 36 home runs, yet he’s tumbled from sixth to tenth on this list.  The 34-year-old’s success amounts to two good months to start the season, after which he’s hitting .214/.282/.406 in 340 plate appearances.  He could still reach 40 home runs, which can’t be ignored, but with another qualifying offer Cruz might find free agency disappointing again.  Cruz said recently he’d like to work out an extension with the Orioles before the end of the season, but talks to date have been casual.

26-year-old Japanese righty Kenta Maeda remains worth watching; he has a 2.73 ERA in 142 innings.  Ervin Santana has been excellent in eight starts since our last power rankings and seems primed for a multiyear deal.  Jason Hammel has settled in in Oakland, pitching quite well in four of his last five starts.  Jake Peavy and Brandon McCarthy have excelled following trades, while Justin Masterson’s stock has plummeted and he’s been moved to the Cardinals’ bullpen.  Francisco Liriano and Jorge De La Rosa also warrant mention as multiyear deal candidates, though De La Rosa may end up with a qualifying offer attached to his name.  Josh Beckett may be lost for the season with a hip injury, muddying his free agent picture.

On the position player side, Aramis Ramirez continues putting up strong numbers, and Mike Morse has remained useful in recent weeks.  Asdrubal Cabrera has hit well in his new role as the Nationals’ second baseman.  J.J. Hardy didn’t hit a home run until June 21, but he’s gone deep nine times since while playing his typical brand of elite defense at shortstop and should secure a nice multi-year deal.  Nick Markakis has been steady and productive for most of the season.  Late signees Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales have continued to struggle after being traded, calling their offseason strategy into question.

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2015 Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand

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MLBTR Originals

By edcreech | August 31, 2014 at 9:36pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week:

  • Agent Eric Izen of the Legacy Agency told MLBTR a showcase would be held in Florida for a pair of his Cuban clients: first baseman Jozzen Cuesta and left-hander Misael Siverio.
  • MLBTR was the first to learn Siverio held a workout in June with the Yankees, Cubs, and Astros among those in attendance.
  • Steve Adams hosted the MLBTR live chat this week.
  • Zach Links put together the best of the baseball blogosphere in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
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MLBTR Originals

By edcreech | August 24, 2014 at 6:12pm CDT

A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

  • Charlie Wilmoth opines a pre-free agency contract extension might represent the best chance for Kole Calhoun to land a big payday, due to his age. Charlie envisions a five-year deal, plus a team option, guaranteeing slightly more than $21MM ($27-30MM, if Calhoun qualifies for Super Two status) as working for both sides.
  • Jeff Todd asked MLBTR readers to pick the winner of the Rusney Castillo sweepstakes. Just 19.5% of you correctly predicted the Red Sox landing the Cuban outfielder/infielder.
  • Zach Links was the first to report right-hander Wirfin Obispo was outrighted by the Pirates to Triple-A Indianapolis.
  • Zach also broke the news left-hander Clay Rapada will take some time to let his injured ankle heal before pursuing his next contract.
  • This past week marked the anniversary of two recent transactions by the Cubs, so Jeff revisited the 2013 trade of David DeJesus to the Nationals and Starlin Castro’s seven-year, $60MM extension in 2012.
  • Steve Adams hosted this week’s chat.
  • Zach compiled the latest edition of Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
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