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Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 1: Twins Land A Rotation Cornerstone

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5, No. 4, No. 3. and No. 2. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Now for the top spot in our series…

The 2021 season was a disaster for the Twins. Fresh off a division title in the shortened 2020 season, they entered the year as the team to beat in the American League Central but faceplanted with a 9-15 showing in the season’s first month and never recovered. Offseason signings of Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome and Matt Shoemaker all flopped. Top prospect Alex Kirilloff, expected to be a key contributor, was limited to 59 games thanks to a torn ligament in his wrist. Kenta Maeda followed up his Cy Young runner-up season with an injury-shortened year that ended with him undergoing Tommy John surgery. Jose Berrios was the only pitcher who even reached 110 innings on an injury-ravaged Twins staff.

Berrios was also one of several veterans the Twins wound up trading once they waved the white flag on their 2021 season. After years of failed extension efforts, he was traded to the Blue Jays in exchange for prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. That trade was one of the headline moves of the entire 2021 trade deadline, but it wasn’t the defining move of the summer for the Twins.

That distinction goes to the first trade they made, jumping the market to send designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Rays in a trade that brought back a pair of pitching prospects: the since-DFA’ed Drew Strotman and a near-MLB-ready right-hander by the name of Joe Ryan. The Twins also sent minor league righty Calvin Faucher to the Rays as part of the deal — he’s since made his debut but hasn’t pitched particularly well — so it can be argued that this wasn’t a pure rental, but the heart of the trade was a half season of Cruz for the aforementioned prospects.

Regardless of how things play out with Faucher, there’s no getting around the fact that the trade didn’t work out as the Rays hoped. Cruz was hitting .294/.370/.537 with 19 homers in 346 plate appearances at the time of the trade, and Tampa Bay hoped they were acquiring a heart-of-the-order slugger who could deepen their lineup and provide some needed thump in the postseason. Cruz kept hitting for power (13 homers, 238 plate appearances), but his strikeout rate spiked as his walk rate plummeted.

The end result was a .226/.283/.442 slash, plus a 3-for-17 showing in an ALDS loss to the Red Sox. One of those hits was a solo home run, but Cruz’s well below-average OBP and dramatic rise in strikeouts (from 18.2% in Minnesota to 26.5% in Tampa Bay) fell shy of expectations. Cruz hit free agency following the season and went on to sign a one-year deal with the Nationals.

The now-26-year-old Strotman’s time with the Twins lasted barely a year. He was hit hard in Minnesota’s Triple-A rotation following the trade and moved to the bullpen the following year, which did little to quell his long-running command issues. He’s since bounced to the Rangers and Giants via waivers, the latter of whom was able to pass him through waivers unclaimed. He currently has a 6.54 ERA in Triple-A Sacramento. Strotman was an upper-level pitching prospect who had a chance to debut in the Majors in relatively short order, but his half of the trade (quite clearly) hasn’t panned out.

The other half of the Twins’ return is another story entirely.

At the time of the trade, Ryan had only just begun to sneak onto the back-end of top-100 prospect rankings around the industry. He was in the midst of a strong season with Triple-A Durham, pitching to a 3.63 ERA with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 4.7% walk rate. Ryan’s lack of velocity — he averages under 93 mph on his fastball — perhaps created some skepticism about his ability to continue missing bats at that level in the big leagues, but his atypical release point has allowed him to continually befuddle hitters despite his pedestrian velocity.

Ryan’s time in the minor leagues with the Twins was brief, to say the least. Minnesota had the right-hander make just two starts in Triple-A following the trade before summoning him for his Major League debut. In his next four starts, Ryan held opponents to a 2.45 ERA with a 25-to-3 K/BB ratio in 22 innings. He was hit hard in his final outing of the year, finishing out the season with a 4.05 ERA and 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 innings.

The Twins had seen enough to not only pencil Ryan into their 2022 rotation, but make him their Opening Day starter after just five big league appearances. Ryan’s 2022 campaign, his age-26 season, marked a significant step forward. The right-hander made 27 starts, pitched to a 3.55 ERA and fanned a quarter of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. If there was any doubt about his status as a surefire big league starter, it’d largely been eliminated.

Continuing on at that pace would’ve made Ryan a clear building block for the Twins, but he’s taken his game to another new level so far in 2023. Long an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Ryan has added a splitter that’s helped him up his ground-ball rate and further neutralize left-handed opponents. Ryan’s 35% ground-ball rate is still lower than average by nearly 10 percentage points, but it’s a huge increase from the 27.7% mark he posted in 2022. Lefties weren’t effective against him in the first place, hitting just .202/.288/.348 in 2022, but they’ve flailed away at a .199/.242/.281 clip in 2023. The addition of that splitter has helped out against righties, too; they’re hitting just .225/.257/.373 against Ryan this year. Statcast credits the newly implemented splitter with a .196 “expected” opponents’ batting average and a .283 expected slugging percentage.

Ryan entered play today with a 3.30 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate in 84 1/3 innings. After averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing last year, he’s been given a longer leash by the Twins in 2023 and averaged a bit better than six innings per start. The mustachioed righty has already surpassed his 2022 total of 2.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement, and his 1.8 WAR over at Baseball-Reference is rapidly approaching last year’s mark of 2.3. He’s a candidate for a 2023 All-Star bid, and if he can sustain this pace, he’ll likely find himself on the periphery of Cy Young voting later this season.

Because Ryan fell well shy of a full year of service time in 2021, he didn’t accrue a full year of service until the completion of the 2022 season. He’ll finish the 2023 campaign with two-plus year of service and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 season. The Twins control him all the way through the 2027 season, though his performance through his first 46 career starts certainly makes him a logical extension candidate for the Twins if the two sides can find a palatable middle ground.

It’s difficult for teams marketing rental players to command any degree of highly ranked prospects, let alone a near-MLB ready arm who can step into a big league rotation just weeks after the swap is completed. The Twins’ willingness to jump the sellers’ market — Cruz was traded more than a week before the deadline — and his status as perhaps the top bat available on the market created the right circumstances for Minnesota to strike gold and set a new benchmark for modern-day rental returns.

It’s probably not realistic for fans hoping their teams can cash in on a high-end rental player to expect a return this good, but the Twins surely don’t mind Ryan’s status as a best-case scenario for a return in this type of swap. Their decision to re-sign Cruz for a third year netted them a half season of excellent offense and, quite possibly, six-plus years of a pitcher who’s increasingly looking like a front-of-the-rotation arm. It’s the type of return any GM or president of baseball operations dreams of every July but the type that is rarely achieved.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NPB Players To Watch: June

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It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the eight players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. More details about their play styles and background are in the first article.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

In the May update, I wrote that Yamamoto had yet to have his signature outing of the 2023 season, and since then he’s posted three consecutive gems. Yamamoto tossed eight innings in all three starts, allowing just one run and holding hitters to .092, while fanning 29.8% of them.

The 24-year-old right-hander now has a 1.59 ERA on the season, striking out 28.3% of hitters while walking just 4.6% and holding hitters to .188 in 62 ⅓ innings. 

Yamamoto faces stiff competition from Sasaki for most strikeouts, but a third consecutive Pacific League Triple Crown (ERA, Wins, Ks) is definitely within reach.

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

The 29-year-old left-hander is back to looking like the Yokohama Baystars ace after a rough May. In his last four starts, Imanaga has a 2.32 ERA, striking out 23.3% of hitters and walking 4.3%. 

On the season, Imanaga has a 2.78 ERA, 26.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, and keeping hitters to a .225 batting average in 55 innings. The lefty struggles with the long ball at times (giving up eight in May), but regularly pitches deep into games, only failing to throw seven innings twice.

Imanaga positioned himself for an MLB move in 2023 by signing with a new agency last December. Given his strong track record in both NPB and international competitions, multiple teams should be showing interest in Imanaga this offseason.

3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

After a blistering start to the season, Takahashi has hit somewhat of a rough patch, with a 3.46 ERA in his last four starts. The 26-year-old right-hander is still tied for the Pacific League lead in ERA among qualified pitchers with a 2.11 mark.

On the season, the Lions’ ace is striking out 21% of hitters and holding them to .215, while walking 7.3% in 81 total innings. 

According to Nikkan Gendai, an MLB scout said that Takahashi’s improvement has been a pleasant surprise. “He did not know how to pace himself before, so he’d be tired by around 80 pitches. Since last season, he’s balanced out his delivery and pace. With his frame at 6’2-6’3 and 231 lbs and the combination of an upper 90s fastball and splitter, barring any setbacks, multiple MLB teams should show interest in the offseason.”

4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer is as reliable as ever, with a 0.77 ERA, 38.8 K%, and 14 saves in 24 appearances in 2023. 

An overseas free agent this offseason, Matsui has not clearly stated his intentions for a move to MLB this offseason outside of vague comments made earlier in his career. 

Interestingly, he has made some changes this season that may be signaling a potential move.

He has mostly relied on his four-seam, splitter, and slider in his career, but this season he has cut down his slider usage and heavily increased the usage of his splitter. Given that the ability to throw splitters is highly valued in MLB, this could very well be him showcasing MLB front offices that his stuff will translate to the big leagues. 

There is certainly a need across the league for left-handed relievers with strikeout ability, and Matsui may be an interesting option. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

The 29-year-old right-hander has bounced back from a nightmarish start to the season and is back to looking like an ace for the Fighters. In his last four starts since the previous NPB update, Uwasawa has a 1.74 ERA in 31 innings, striking out 20.8% of hitters and holding them to a .158 batting average, while walking 6.7%. 

Stuff-wise, Uwasawa lags behind the other players on the list and profiles similar to former Fighters teammate and former Rangers starting pitcher Kohei Arihara. He faces an uphill battle to earn an MLB contract, but he seems intent on taking on the challenge anyway. Maintaining his current form and finishing the season below a 2.50 ERA would definitely improve his chances.

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki has come down to earth a little bit after a 1.00 ERA in April and 1.64 ERA in May. In his last four starts, Sasaki has a 3.24 ERA and two losses. The ‘Monster of Reiwa’ still has a 1.89 ERA on the season, striking out hitters at an unfathomable 40.4% rate and holding them to .146 while walking just 5.6%.

While Sasaki has unquestionable stuff and strikeout ability, building up the stamina to handle a full season workload is the next step in his development. Marines manager Masato Yoshii said that he might skip Sasaki’s next start, saying that he looked tired. Sasaki usually throws on six days of rest this season. Unless he makes a surprise request to be posted, Sasaki has a couple of season to improve that area of his game. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

The reigning Triple Crown winner looks more like himself in June, slashing .291/.418/.455 in 67 plate appearances. On the season, Murakami has a .233/.317/.419 line with a .789 OPS and 11 homers, a disappointing follow-up to his historic 2022 season.

Murakami is striking out on a horrendous 32% of at-bats, and his NPB-worst 89 total strikeouts is 22 more than the next closest at 67 strikeouts. He still has a strong walk rate at 16.5%, but is simply not making good contact.

Murakami is especially struggling to hit velocity, hitting just .083 against fastballs thrown harder than 150 km/h (93.75 mph). and is also struggling to hit righties, hitting just .180. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

A newcomer on this list, Okamoto has been one of the best hitters in NPB who is enjoying a career season. Some of you may remember him for his solo homer that extended Team Japan’s lead over Team USA in the WBC Final.

The 6’1, 220lb slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. Okamoto was the youngest player in NPB to post a .300, 30HR, 100 RBI season. He led the Central League in homers and RBIs in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021, 

The soon-to-be 27-year-old corner infielder is hitting .322/.414/.597 with 17 homers, 42 RBIs and an OPS of 1.010 in 2o23. He would be in prime position for the Triple Crown in any other season if it wasn’t for Toshiro Miyazaki and his .372 batting average. 

In comparison to Murakami, Okamoto hits for less average and walks less. Okamoto has hit over .300 just once in his career, and has a 10.5% career BB% compared to Murakami’s 16.5%. Okamoto plays average defense at third base and has taken first base and left field reps this year. 

Okamoto has hinted at some interest in a potential MLB move, but there is nothing concrete yet. He isn’t set to be a free agent for four years, his age-31 season. The Giants are traditionally against the posting system, so it remains to be seen whether or not he will request a move before that.

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai, Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi, Chiba Lotte Marines

 

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford

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The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA

Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.

Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380

Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA

From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.

Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA

Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.

Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410

The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.

Three More

Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.

Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.

Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency

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With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.

Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:

Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.

That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):

After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.

When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):

While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.

After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.

Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):

The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.

What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):

After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.

The Yankees Are Showing The Importance Of Minor League Deals

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Every offseason, there are huge moves that grab headlines and have the ability to transform franchises. Top free agents get nine-figure deals while other high quality players are traded for top prospects. Though there are also transactions that might fly under the radar but still go on to play an important role in the future, such as waiver claims and minor league deals.

The Yankees are illustrating the importance of those minor league deals this year, as various injuries have forced them to turn to players that weren’t on the roster initially. Let’s highlight some players who had to settle for non-roster pacts but have gone on to earn meaningful playing time for the Yanks in 2023.

December 16, 2021 – right-hander Jimmy Cordero

December 14, 2022 – first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers

December 23, 2022 – right-handers Ryan Weber and Nick Ramirez

December 31, 2022 – outfielder Willie Calhoun

December 31, 2022 – outfielder Billy McKinney

February 5, 2023 – right-hander Ian Hamilton

The Yankees have dealt with a number of significant injuries this year. Aaron Judge went on the injured list in early May due to a hip strain and is now there again thanks to a toe sprain. Harrison Bader began the season on the IL due to an oblique strain. Though he eventually returned, he’s now back on the IL a second time because of a hamstring strain. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are with the club now but have missed significant time with their own ailments. In addition to those injuries, they also dealt with the struggles of Aaron Hicks, which eventually led to his release. All of that has created opportunities for other players, with each of Calhoun, Bauers and McKinney getting roster spots.

Calhoun had previously received chances from the Rangers and Giants but had continued to struggle. He had a career batting line of .240/.299/.404 as of this winter for a wRC+ of 84. But he had always hit well in the minors and was a former top 100 prospect. He’s now been given a roster spot with the Yankees and has received 140 plate appearances for the season. He’s walked in 9.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 12.1% clip, launching five home runs in the process. His .238/.307/.413 batting line amounts to a 98 wRC+, indicating he’s been just barely below league average. For an emergency fill-in guy, that’s not half bad, and he might even get better results if his .238 batting average on balls in play ticks up closer to the .297 league average.

Bauers was in a fairly similar situation, having once been a top 100 guy who struggled in auditions with Tampa, Cleveland and Seattle. He hit .213/.307/.348 in the majors prior to this season, leading to an 82 wRC+. But in 104 plate appearances as a Yankee this year, he’s hitting .222/.308/.456 for a wRC+ of 109. He’s striking out in 32.7% of his trips to the plate but is also walking at an 11.5% clip.

Like those two, McKinney had also been on top 100 lists in the past. He had been put into action with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Athletics, but had hit .206/.277/.387 for a wRC+ of 77 by the end of 2022. He was called up recently and has only been in seven games so far this year, but he’s put up a huge .320/.320/.640 showing in that small sample. His ability to play center field is huge for the club, with each of Bader, Judge and Greg Allen on the injured list.

The bullpen is another area where the Yanks have dealt with significant challenges. Scott Effross seemed to be emerging as a key piece for them last year but required Tommy John surgery in October, effectively ruling him out for 2023. Jonathan Loáisiga made just three appearances before requiring surgery for a bone spur, with his return still several months away. Lou Trivino began the year on the injured list and ultimately required Tommy John surgery in May, which will prevent him from contributing anything this year. Tommy Kahnle was supposed to play a meaningful role after signing a two-year, $11.5MM deal in the offseason but he was on the IL for the first two months of the schedule.

Those injuries have opened the door for the minor league signees listed above. Cordero was signed way back in the 2021-2022 offseason but the Yankees selected his contract at the end of last year to prevent him from becoming a free agent. He’s tossed 27 2/3 innings with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate. He has a 3.58 ERA but probably deserves even better since he has a 66.4% strand rate, leading to a 2.70 FIP and 3.07 SIERA. Ramirez has a 1.64 ERA in a smaller sample of 11 innings. Hamilton is currently on the IL but has a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings thus far on the season. Weber’s season is now in jeopardy as Tommy John surgery might be required, but he posted a 3.14 ERA in 14 1/3 innings before landing on the 60-day IL.

None of these players is going to be voted the Most Valuable Player or the Cy Young winner, but they have nonetheless showed the importance of depth. The Yankees been without key players like Judge and Bader while others have been slumping badly, but they haven’t been buried in the standings. They are 39-30 and still holding onto a playoff spot. Despite having one of the highest payrolls in the league with plenty of high-paid stars on the roster, they have had a few games recently where their entire outfield was guys whom they’d signed to minor league deals. Thanks to the contributions of these various players, they are hanging in the race with the all-important trade deadline just over the horizon. There’s an old saying that there’s no such thing as a bad minor league deal, and these pacts are looking quite good for the Yanks right now.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 2: Marlins Cash In Marte

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5, No. 4 and No. 3. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 2…

The Marlins and Starling Marte at one point both hoped the dynamic outfielder would spend the final years of his career in Miami. Marte, whom the Fish acquired from the D-backs at the 2020 trade deadline when he had a season and a half of club control remaining, immediately took a liking to South Beach and voiced a desire to remain there long-term. A then-32-year-old Marte was willing to talk extension during the season in 2021, and the two parties headed into the All-Star break in the midst of extension negotiations.

Starling Marte | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsReporting from Craig Mish, Jordan McPherson and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald at the time indicated that Marte was seeking a four-year extension offer that would cover his age-33 through age-36 seasons — a reasonable request for a player of his caliber. Marte entered that year’s All-Star break with a strong .271/.382/.411 batting line, after all, and was a career .287/.341/.450 hitter entering that 2021 campaign.

The Marlins said all the right things publicly about wanting to keep Marte, but Mish and McPherson reported after the All-Star break that the team had topped out on a three-year offer worth less than $40MM. That type of offer was never going to get a deal done — Marte wound up signing a four-year, $78MM deal in free agency in the offseason, remember — and it was a bit surprising the Fish even put it out there. Regardless, the focus shifted to finding a trade partner for Marte, and in the end, things could hardly have worked out better for Miami.

Marte, as one would expect, quickly became a hot commodity on the trade market once it became clear that an extension in Miami wasn’t happening. The Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Astros were among the teams showing interest, and San Francisco in particular appeared to be a strong on-paper fit. There was never any talk about the Athletics harboring interest in Marte, and their outfield appeared largely set anyhow — at least from the outside looking in. Just days after the trade deadline, however, Ramon Laureano was hit with an 80-game PED ban. He’d almost certainly already gone through the appeals process by that point, so there’s a chance the A’s had a strong inkling they’d need some outfield help by the time they swung their July 28 deal for Marte.

Regardless of the circumstances that led to the trade, it was a legitimate shocker. There’d been virtually nothing to link the two teams prior to the deal, and a low-payroll club like the A’s taking on an expensive rental player didn’t seem plausible. Miami, however, kicked in $4MM to help cover the remainder of Marte’s salary. Owner Bruce Sherman was likely plenty OK with doing so, given the return.

Jesus Luzardo entered the 2020 season as the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. He had a decent but not elite rookie campaign during the pandemic-shortened 2020 sprint (4.12 ERA in 59 innings). Paired with a strong showing during his 12-inning cup of coffee as a 21-year-old late in the 2019 season, he looked ready for primetime and entered the ’21 season regarded as a breakout candidate who could soon front Oakland’s rotation.

Things didn’t pan out that way. Luzardo was rocked for a 5.79 ERA through his first six starts and was placed on the injured list after sustaining a hairline fracture in his left pinkie. The injury, one of the more bizarre IL trips in recent memory, occurred after Luzardo hit his hand on a desk while playing video games. The lefty apologized to the team and fans after the fact, calling the injury “stupid” and “immature.” Luzardo returned a month later, this time pitching out of the bullpen, and allowed 11 runs in 10 innings before being optioned to stretch back out as a starter.

Embarrassing injury aside, the future still seemed plenty bright for Luzardo, even with a poor 38 innings to begin his 2021 season. Perhaps the video game incident contributed to the forthcoming decision. Perhaps the A’s just didn’t feel Luzardo would live up to his prospect status. Or, more likely, perhaps vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst knew full-well what was coming in the offseason — massive payroll cuts from ownership and the inevitable teardown of a roster that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 — and simply felt they needed to push all-in for a ring in 2021.

The 56-46 Athletics traded Luzardo, who still had five years of club control remaining, to the Marlins in order to acquire the final two-plus months of Marte’s contract before he reached free agency.

I used the term “deadline-season stunner” at the time of the trade and still feel that holds up. It’s simply rare for an MLB-ready pitcher with this much promise and this much club control to be moved at all — let alone for a two-month rental. That the acquiring team was a small-market, low-payroll club like the A’s and hadn’t been linked to Marte whatsoever only added to the surprise. In all likelihood, this trade coming together required a perfect storm: the looming PED ban for Laureano, the regrettable freak injury for Luzardo early in the season, and career years/breakouts from several A’s pitchers (Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt, Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian) that all made Luzardo feel a bit more expendable.

In an all too common refrain for the tortured Oakland fanbase these days, the trade hasn’t worked out for the A’s. Granted, Marte was brilliant in green and gold, hitting .316/.359/.466 with five homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples and a hefty 25 steals in just 56 games. The Athletics couldn’t have realistically asked for much more than that, but the rest of the team didn’t hold up well enough to even reach the postseason.

The A’s still finished 10 games over .500, but Oakland lost nine of its final 13 games, finishing third place in the AL West and winding up five games out in the AL Wild Card chase. Marte reached free agency and was ineligible for a qualifying offer by virtue of that midseason trade. Oakland received no compensation for his departure, and ownership gutted payroll as the front office embarked on yet another rebuild.

Down in Miami, things got out to a rocky start as well. Luzardo’s velocity was down a bit in a dozen post-trade starts, and he posted a 6.44 ERA with the Marlins overall in his first run with the club. It wasn’t a great start.

Things took a sharp turn in Miami’s favor the following season. Luzardo, born in Peru but raised in Florida, looked far more comfortable in the first full season of his homecoming. A forearm injury limited him to 100 1/3 innings, but he broke out with a 3.32 ERA, a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate — all while displaying a career-best 96.4 mph average on his heater. His swinging-strike and opponent chase rates were the highest of his career, and he gave up less hard contact than he had during his ugly 2021 campaign.

The Marlins received trade interest in Luzardo over the winter and surely could’ve moved him for a haul of young talent if they’d preferred, but the Fish held onto the still just 25-year-old lefty and now find themselves in the running for a postseason berth. Miami has won eight of ten games and is just three and a half games behind the division-leading Braves in the NL East. If the season ended today, the Fish would land the National League’s second Wild Card spot.

Luzardo has been a key part of that, although his recent six-run clunker did mark his third start of five or more runs allowed this year. Even with that trio of rough outings, Luzardo has a 4.17 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate are much more encouraging, however. Like many pitchers on a Marlins club that is playing multiple players out of position, Luzardo’s been hampered by his defense (.335 BABIP). Fielding-independent metrics like FIP and SIERA both peg him at 3.58 so far this season.

Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Luzardo has given the Marlins 32 starts and 178 innings of 3.69 ERA ball with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s not only regained any velocity that dipped in 2021 but is now averaging a career-high 96.8 mph on his heater. Luzardo’s swinging-strike and chase rates both suggest there’s the potential for even more strikeouts. Even if his results never catch up to the strong marks he’s receiving from fielding-independent numbers, the 2021-22 version of Luzardo is already a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. He may not be an “ace,” and fans can debate whether he’s more of a “No. 2” or “No. 3” type starter, but he’s solidified himself as an above-average starter with upside for more.

The Marlins control Luzardo for three more years beyond the current season. He reached arbitration as a Super Two player this past winter and is already earning $2.45MM. As a Scott Boras client, an extension isn’t likely, so expect Luzardo’s name to pop up in trade rumors again as he inches closer to free agency. Even by Miami payroll standards, he’s a bargain in 2023 and will be again in 2024, so a trade in the short-term doesn’t seem likely. For now, he’ll continue slotting into the rotation of a surprisingly competitive Miami club that could enter the deadline as a buyer if it can maintain any semblance of its current pace.

As for the A’s, they’re on the opposite end of the spectrum, with their primary 2023 goal at this point being to avoid the worst record in big league history. It’s hard to blame the Oakland front office for going all in and trading Luzardo, knowing the fire sale was coming, but the A’s would be a lot less futile with him in the rotation. Or, at the very least, the farm system would likely be stronger with the influx of young talent they could’ve acquired by putting him on the market as part of the rebuild this past offseason.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Infield Upgrades Should Be A Deadline Focus For Marlins

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The Marlins held onto a 4-1 win over the Mariners in dramatic fashion yesterday, pushing them to 38-31. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re 4 1/2 back of the Braves in the NL East but multiple games clear of the Phillies and Mets for second place in the division.

It’s a start that’ll surprise some onlookers. The Marlins are no longer rebuilding and fully intended to be competitive, but they were generally perceived as the fourth-best team in a strong division. While unimpressive starts from Philadelphia and New York have certainly helped, Miami is seven games above .500 and trending towards deadline season as a buyer.

The Marlins are already looking into ways to upgrade behind the plate. That’s understandable; neither Nick Fortes nor Jacob Stallings has done enough to deter the front office from exploring upgrades. There haven’t yet been any reports about Miami gauging the infield market, though that also figures to be a priority for GM Kim Ng and her front office.

Miami aggressively reshaped their infield over the offseason. The Fish went into the winter looking to add high-contact hitters to the lineup. They actualized that in the infield, swapping Pablo López (and a couple prospects) to the Twins for Luis Arraez while adding Jean Segura and Yuli Gurriel via free agency.

Arraez’s acquisition and return to second base pushed Jazz Chisholm to center field. Segura was signed to play third base. Brian Anderson had already been non-tendered, so Segura displaced utility types Joey Wendle and Jon Berti at the hot corner. At the end of the winter, Miami traded clubhouse leader Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers for upper minors infielder Jacob Amaya and named Wendle their new starting shortstop. First baseman Garrett Cooper was the only Miami infielder to start at the same position on Opening Day for the second straight season.

Any time a team makes that many moves, there are going to be mixed results. The contrast in the Marlins’ infield is particularly stark, though. Arraez has been everything the Fish could’ve hoped for. He’s well on his way to another batting title, with a .378/.431/.461 line that more than compensates for concerns about his defensive chops at second base. The rest of the group has not performed up to expectations. There’s no greater question mark than Segura, who has been the worst everyday player in the majors.

The veteran infielder owns a .190/.259/.234 slash over his first 225 plate appearances in South Florida. While Segura has never been a prototypical power threat, he’s reached double digit homers in each of the last six full seasons. This year, he’s connected on just one longball. Among hitters with 200+ plate appearances, Segura has easily the lowest slugging percentage. (Alex Call is second from the bottom at .295.) He’s also last in on-base percentage and tops only Nick Maton and Kyle Schwarber in batting average.

That’s disastrous offense, and Miami’s gamble in moving Segura to a position with which he’s not familiar hasn’t panned out on that side of the ball either. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as five runs worse than the average third baseman through just over 500 innings. Statcast isn’t quite so harsh but has him two runs below par.

Combining league-worst hitting and below-average defense has Segura well below replacement level thus far. He’ll almost certainly improve his production. It’s hard to get any worse than his current line, and Segura’s pre-2023 track record was that of a solid regular. A .224 average on balls in play calls for some positive regression, so he should at least start hitting for a better average.

The complete lack of extra-base impact is a serious concern, however. Solid as the season has gone overall, Miami still isn’t an imposing offensive club.

Playing half their games in cavernous loanDepot Park admittedly isn’t doing the lineup any favors. Miami’s offseason focus was about improving the run production, though, trying to add more balance to a club that skewed so heavily to pitching and defense last year. Many of their moves actively weakened the run prevention to increase scoring. They relinquished López to bring in Arraez, moving Segura and Chisholm off their standard second base positions in the process. They parted with Rojas — a light-hitting, plus defensive shortstop — to shoehorn Wendle into the lineup at a position he’d never played regularly.

The offense is better, but not dramatically so. They’re tied for 25h in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, 18th in on-base percentage (.318) and 19th in slugging (.397). The Fish respectively finished in 28th, 24th, 27th and 28th in those categories last season. Arraez has driven the on-base jump, while the power spike is attributable to scorching starts from holdover outfielders Jorge Soler and Jesús Sánchez. Even with Arraez flirting with a .400 clip for a while, Miami’s infield has a bland .269/.326/.361 slash. As measured by wRC+, they’re 23rd in offensive production from their infielders.

Miami has weathered that so far. That’s in large part to a 17-5 record in one-run contests, allowing them to overcome a -30 run differential that’s above only those of the Rockies and Nationals in the Senior Circuit. The Fish aren’t going to apologize for those wins. They’re in the books, and they put the club right in the thick of a muddled NL playoff picture. Yet that kind of success in close games isn’t something Miami can bank on continuing all year. They’ll need the lineup to improve if they’re to ward off that regression.

Some of that will happen organically. Chisholm has been out a month with a foot injury. Ng recently told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast that he’s likely still several weeks away, but a second-half return should be a boon to the offense. Cooper is a better hitter than this year’s .229/.268/.408 line would indicate. Sánchez is playing regularly now after missing a few weeks in May due to injury.

They’ll need to support that at the deadline, likely by bringing in a left side infielder. Curtailing Segura’s playing time a few months into a two-year, $17MM contract would be a tough pill to swallow, but it might be necessary for a team trying to hang onto a playoff spot.

Players like Jeimer Candelario, Jace Peterson and Patrick Wisdom should be available at the hot corner. There are fewer options at shortstop, though the White Sox could move Tim Anderson and the Cardinals would probably deal Paul DeJong. None of those players can carry a lineup (perhaps unless Anderson bounces back from a tough start), but they’d each provide manager Skip Schumaker some alternatives to continuing to plug Segura in every day.

This deadline season should be an exciting one for Marlins fans. Unless things fall apart within the next six weeks, they’re in position to add in hopes of bolstering a playoff push. Two decades removed from their most recent berth in a 162-game season, the front office shouldn’t hesitate to be aggressive, even if that means making the tough call to bench their biggest free agent pickup of this past offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #3: Jays Get An All-Star Slugger

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5 and No. 4. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 3…

The Blue Jays had made it as far as the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016 and were looking to compete again in 2017. The saw both José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación become free agents after 2016 but were able to re-sign Bautista. Encarnación got away, but they tried to replace him by signing Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce, while also fortifying the bullpen with signings of Joe Smith and J.P. Howell.

Unfortunately, the Jays couldn’t keep it going for a third straight year. By July 31, they were 49-57 and in last place in the American League East, nine games out in the division and seven games back in the Wild Card race. They decided to do some selling, trading Smith to Cleveland and also trading Francisco Liriano to Houston.

Liriano, 33 at that time, had just been acquired by the Jays from the Pirates in a deadline deal one year earlier. It was essentially a salary dump for the Bucs, as the Jays took on all of what remained of Liriano’s contract. The Pirates were grateful enough for that kindness that they included prospects Harold Ramírez and Reese McGuire in the deal, taking back only Drew Hutchison in return. Neither Ramírez or McGuire would establish themselves in the majors with the Jays, though they have each now done so for AL East rivals. Liriano had a 5.46 ERA going into that trade but finished the season strong, posting a 2.92 ERA with the Jays and helping them get into the playoffs.

However, he was struggling again in 2017, as he had a 5.88 ERA through 18 starts with Toronto. He was still enjoying good results against lefties, as they had hit just .230/.254/.361 against him on the year. The Astros decided to take a shot on grabbing Liriano and converting him into a left-on-left relief specialist, despite the fact that he had worked almost exclusively as a starter in his career.

Liriano was making $13MM that year, with about $4.48MM still remaining to be paid out at the time of the deal. That would have been a fine salary for a solid rotation member but was on the high side for the specialized role the Astros envisioned. The Jays offset some of that by taking on outfielder Nori Aoki, who was making $5.5MM that year. But the real get for the Jays was young outfielder Teoscar Hernández.

For the Astros, Liriano made 20 relief appearances down the stretch with a 4.40 ERA despite a 15.2% walk rate. He then made another five appearances in the postseason with a 3.86 ERA. The club emerged victorious and won their first ever World Series title, though that achievement is now marred by the revelations of their elaborate sign-stealing scheme.

For the Jays, they released Aoki less than a month after the deal, emphasizing that their real focus was Hernández. Just 24 years old at that time, he was considered one of Houston’s top 10 prospects and had already made his major league debut. He hadn’t yet established himself in the bigs, hitting just .230/.304/.420 in his first 113 plate appearances. However, he had always hit the minors and was slashing .279/.369/.485 in Triple-A at the time of the deal. The Astros had an outfield mix that consisted of George Springer, Josh Reddick and Derek Fisher, with prospect Kyle Tucker on the cusp of his debut, leaving Hernández somewhat blocked from regular playing time.

Teoscar HernandezThe Jays put Hernández into 26 games down the stretch that year, and he quickly showed his tremendous power potential, hitting eight home runs in that brief time. There were also some concerning elements, as he walked in only 6.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a glaring 37.9% clip. Nonetheless, it was an encouraging showing for a young outfielder who had yet to show he could handle himself in the majors.

Hernandez took on a regular role in the Toronto outfield from there, and the first couple of seasons had mixed results, generally mirroring that late-2017 debut in Toronto. He hit 22 home runs in 2018 and 26 more the year after, but he also struck out in 32% of his plate appearances. His 8.7% walk rate was close to league average, but his overall batting line was .235/.304/.470. Despite the obvious power, the punchouts dragged his wRC+ down to 104 over that two-year span, indicating he was just a bit above average overall. He stole 11 bases in that time but his defensive metrics were poor.

The next three seasons would prove to be much better, however. From 2020 to 2022, he struck out in 27.2% of his trips to the plate, still above league average but a significant improvement on his previous work. He did that without sacrificing any power, launching 73 home runs in those two-plus seasons. His .283/.333/.519 line in that time translated to a 132 wRC+, putting him in the top 25 among all hitters in the league in that category. He earned Silver Slugger awards in both 2020 and 2021 and was an All-Star in the latter season. That coincided with the club’s return to contention, as Hernández slotted into the middle of the lineup alongside up-and-coming star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, helping the club reach the postseason in both 2020 and 2022.

Despite the great work at the plate, the defense continued to be subpar. Hernandez has career tallies of -23 Defensive Runs Saved, -23 Outs Above Average and a grade of -21 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Going into 2023, the Jays set out to be a better defensive club, trading away bat-first players like Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. while bringing in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho. Hernández was flipped to the Mariners for pitchers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.

Looked at on its own, the Liriano swap looks great for the Blue Jays. They traded an impending free agent pitcher who was struggling to a 5.88 ERA on the year, netting themselves a lineup regular who essentially played at a 30-homer-per-year pace for five seasons. When he had one year of club control remaining, they flipped him for a couple of pitchers that extended the benefits into the future. Swanson has become the setup man to closer Jordan Romano, posting a 2.56 ERA this year while earning 16 holds. He can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. Macko is struggling in High-A at the moment but is still just 22 years old. Looking back to the initial deal with the Pirates, the whole transaction tree looks even better as the club turned Hutchison into Liriano, then Hernandez and now Swanson/Macko.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Japanese-Born MLB Player Round Up

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Many star players from NPB have made their way to MLB to take on a new challenge.

Some of them became household names like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Some were consistent and solid players for a long period like Hiroki Kuroda and Koji Uehara. Some failed to meet the hype and lofty expectations like Kei Igawa and Kazuo Matsui. Some became fan favorites like Munenori Kawasaki.

The 2021 AL MVP and two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani headlines the current batch of Japanese big-league players, and rightfully so. These players are a fascinating group that features exciting rookies, experienced veterans, and players looking to make their mark in MLB. Their performances go a long way in promoting the globalization of the sport but also provide fans, scouts, and front offices a better baseline for evaluating future talent from NPB.

How are their respective seasons going? Let’s break it down.

(All stats as of 6/11/2023)

Shohei Ohtani

Big surprise, Ohtani is once again among the frontrunners in the AL MVP race with his one-of-a-kind value as a two-way player. At the plate, he is hitting .291/.362/.593 with 50 RBI and an AL-leading 20 homers.

He had a hot start on the mound to start the season, with a 0.64 ERA and a .093 opponent batting average in his first five starts. Since his last start in April against the A’s, Ohtani has really struggled with the long ball. All 11 homers allowed on the season have come since that start.

On the season, Ohtani has a 3.32 ERA in 13 starts, with a 33.3 K% in 76 innings pitched. He has been plagued by shaky control in some starts, and his walk rate is up to 11.1% compared to 6.7% last season.

You can find Ohtani updates, including reports of every start, endorsement deals, and hot stove news on his player page on MLBTR, or shoheiohtanirumors.com.

Kodai Senga

The Mets signed the 30-year-old right-hander to a five-year, $75MM deal last December. Senga was immediately thrown into the fire in the early weeks of the season as the anchor of a depleted Mets rotation that was impacted by injuries to Justin Verlander and Carlos Carrasco and Max Scherzer’s suspension.

So far, Senga has answered the call and shown the talent that made him one of the most coveted starting pitchers in the 2022 offseason. Senga has a 3.34 ERA in 12 starts and 64 ⅔ innings pitched this season. He had a 4.15 ERA in his first five starts, but he has maintained a 2.79 ERA in his last seven. He is striking out hitters at a strong 28.3% rate, but walking hitters at a 14.3% clip.

Senga’s notorious ‘Ghost Fork’ splitter, which made him a household name in Japan, is no fluke. Hitters are only hitting .108 against the forkball and whiffing at a whopping 59.8% rate, one of the highest in MLB.

The next step in Senga’s transition to MLB is building consistency in control that will allow him to be more efficient and pitch deeper into games. In his final season in NPB, Senga walked 8.6% of hitters, so it’s certainly possible.

Masataka Yoshida

The 29-year-old outfielder signed a five-year, $90MM deal with the Red Sox after seven highly productive seasons in Japan for the Orix Buffaloes. The hefty price tag surprised many, given the questions of his slight frame at 5’8″ and power numbers in NPB traditionally not translating well to the big leagues. The ‘Macho Man’ has rewarded the organization’s faith with his patient and disciplined approach, bat-to-ball skills, and sharp swing. Yoshida is now one of the frontrunners in the AL Rookie of the Year race with his borderline All-Star-level production at the plate.

Yoshida is hitting .300/.375/.467 with seven homers, 33 RBI, and a 132 wRC+. After overcoming a nightmarish start (.189/.317/.264 in first 53 at-bats) to his MLB career, he’s been one of the most consistent bats for the Red Sox. Yoshida joined Ichiro as one of only two players this century to have reached base 85+ times and struck out 25 or fewer times in their first 50 career games.

He turned a corner after working with both Red Sox and Orix Buffaloes coaches and making appropriate adjustments, including lowering his hands. He continues to be proactive with his adjustments. After a rare three-strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks, the Sox coaching staff tweaked his approach and Yoshida responded with a .480/.581/.760 line in the next seven games.

Defensively, there is room for improvement for the outfielder. The Statcast metrics are not favorable, as he ranks in the tenth percentile and 12th percentile in outs above average and outfielder jump, respectively. He should be able to make marginal improvements in that area as he continues to familiarize himself with the Green Monster and the unique outfield at Fenway Park. Could he be making his way to Seattle for the All-Star game in July? We shall see. 

Seiya Suzuki

The 28-year-old outfielder is in the second year of his five-year, $85MM deal with the Cubs.  He was limited to 110 games in his first season by injury, hitting .262/.336/.433 along with 14 homers and 46 RBI. 

After a slow start in April where he hit .254/.333/.373 and just one home run, Suzuki had an excellent month in May, hitting .319/.417/.560 and five homers. On the season, Suzuki is hitting .278/.367/.450 with six homers, 19 RBI, and 124 wRC+ in 50 games. 

So far in his big league career, Suzuki has shown fans glimpses of the five-tool skill set that made him an appealing player in the 2021 offseason but has yet to have his breakout moment.

He has shown excellent plate discipline, walking at a 12.1% rate, and ranks in the 92nd percentile on Statcast chase rate. Despite his plate discipline, Suzuki strikes out quite often, with a 26.1 K%. Suzuki seems to struggle against pitches with movement, hitting just .216 against sinkers and .176 against cutters. Four-seamers with “clean” spin are traditionally more valued over moving pitches in Japan, so it is common for Japanese hitters to struggle with movement since they lack reps. 

Suzuki has been as advertised on the defensive end, recording two outs above average, thanks to a 98th-percentile outfielder jump and 92nd-percentile arm strength. 

Yu Darvish

The right-hander signed a five-year, $90MM contract extension in February, keeping him on the team through 2028. Darvish had a self-proclaimed best season of his career in 2022, tossing 194 2/3 innings with a 3.10 ERA, 25.6 K%, and 4.8 BB%.

He hasn’t been at his absolute best in 2023, with a 4.30 ERA, 26.3 K%, 7.5 BB% in 69 innings, but is still putting up above-average peripheral numbers on Statcast and still featuring a unique eight-pitch mix. If you remove his May 28th start against the Yankees where he got knocked around for seven runs in 2 ⅔ innings, his ERA would be 3.53. 

He reached the 100 wins mark in his last start against the Rockies on June 9, joining Hideo Nomo as the only Japanese MLB pitchers to reach that mark.

Yusei Kikuchi

In his second season as a Blue Jay, Kikuchi is still navigating his way to be a consistently productive starter. The left-hander had his worst season in the majors since his rookie season, largely due to poor control and a questionable pitch mix. 

Coming into 2023, Kikuchi made subtle changes in his delivery and mechanics, while sporting a new beard and swagger. He was off to a solid start, with a 3.00 ERA in April, but had a tough May where he gave up nine home runs and had a 5.83 ERA. On the season, Kikuchi has a 4.34 ERA, 22.7 K%, and 7.4 BB% in 66 ⅓ innings, while giving up an MLB-worst 18 home runs. 

The left-hander is throwing harder than he ever has, with average fastball velocity up to 95.3 mph compared to 92.5 mph his first year in MLB. It hasn’t necessarily translated to a high-quality pitch, however. While Kikuchi is getting whiffs at a 29.7% rate with his fastball, hitters are still getting good contact and hitting .315 against it. 

Although Kikuchi has improved his walk rate by five percentage points from last season, his bad starts are still marked by control issues and giving up the long ball while working behind in the count. The Blue Jays will need every solid performance they can get from Kikuchi in a competitive AL East, especially with Alek Manoah being optioned to the Florida Complex League. 

Kenta Maeda

The 35-year-old Twins right-hander is attempting a full comeback from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The veteran has faced several setbacks in his recovery. He took a 111.6 mph liner off his left foot against the Red Sox on April 20. In his next start against the Yankees, Maeda gave up a career-worst 10 runs in three innings. He was then placed on the IL with a strained triceps. 

Maeda completed his third rehab start for Triple-A St. Paul on June 10. He tossed four shutout innings and struck out five, and will be returning to the big league team in the coming weeks. “The (velocity) was good, the splitter was good, the slider was good. Everything was good,” said St. Paul manager Toby Gardenhire (link via Dean Spiros of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press).

Shintaro Fujinami

The Athletics signed Fujinami to a one-year, $3MM deal in January, with the A’s front office rolling the dice on Fujinami’s 100 mph fastball and potential plus strikeout stuff, despite control issues.

He opened the season in the rotation but was quickly moved to the bullpen at the end of April after allowing 24 runs in just 15 innings and walking 12 batters. It has been more of the same for the 29-year-old right-hander since moving to the bullpen, with a 11.12 ERA on the season while walking 17% of hitters.

It’s been a struggle for Fujinami to throw strikes to say the least. His 29 total walks is the most in MLB for pitchers under 40 innings thrown. When he does find the strike zone, the 6’6 righty is getting shelled. He has a hard hit percentage of 49%, which ranks in the seventh percentile.

Fujinami has dug himself a deep hole in terms of establishing himself as a big league pitcher, but he’s continuing to get opportunities to prove himself on an A’s pitching staff with minimal depth.

Juan Soto Has Found His Stride After Slow Start

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Early in the year, there was a decent amount of trepidation about Juan Soto. The Padres superstar was still reaching base at an excellent clip but was clearly performing below his established level. Soto carried a .202/.373/.384 line across 126 plate appearances through the end of April. That came on the heels of a .236/.388/.390 showing in 52 games last summer after one of the biggest deadline trades in MLB history.

For most players, those numbers wouldn’t be cause for concern. While the batting averages weren’t eye-catching, consistently excellent walk tallies kept the on-base mark at an elite level. Among qualified hitters, Soto ranked 12th in the majors with a .382 OBP between the time of the trade and the start of this May.

By Soto’s standards, though, that production was a disappointment. He’d been a top-five hitter in MLB virtually from the moment he was promoted as a 19-year-old five seasons back. For him to hit only 11 homers with a .388 slugging percentage through his first 81 games as a Padre was a surprise. A .254 average on balls in play certainly didn’t do him any favors, but the three-time Silver Slugger also seemed relatively out of sorts. In mid-April, he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post he felt he was pulling off too many pitches, resulting in weak ground-ball contact to the pull side.

As the season has gone on, Soto has more consistently found his power stroke. He caught fire in May, hitting .333/.482/.632, resulting in a 202 wRC+ that ranked third among qualified hitters that month. While he’s slowed down in June, he still carries a .302/.433/.524 line over the past six weeks. He’s drawn 29 walks against 28 strikeouts while hitting 13 doubles and five home runs over his last 36 contests.

That’s essentially the kind of production we’ve come to expect from Soto. He’s a career .282/.422/.520 hitter in just under 3000 plate appearances. He’s played essentially at that pace for a month and a half. The beginning of May is an arbitrary endpoint, of course. There’s nothing more meaningful about May 1 than there would be about April 26. It’s nevertheless encouraging to see Soto performing at his typical Nationals level for an extended stretch.

Soto is still pulling the ball on the ground a little more often than he had in prior seasons. That’s not ideal given his April comments about getting out in front of too many pitches. When he puts the ball in the air, though, he’s hitting it harder than he did at the start of the year.

The contact quality was the only potential concern. His strike zone discipline has never wavered. Soto sustaining this level will be crucial for a club that still hasn’t kicked things into gear. His hot stretch coincided with a Manny Machado injury and a dismal recent run of play from Xander Bogaerts. The offense as a whole has yet to get going, leaving the Padres with a 31-34 record heading into tonight’s series opener with the Guardians.

Fortunately for San Diego, few teams in the National League have separated themselves from the pack. The Padres are looking up at a 9.5-game deficit on the Diamondbacks in the NL West, which will obviously be difficult to close, even with more than three months remaining on the schedule. However, they’re only two and a half games behind the Giants and Brewers for the Senior Circuit’s last Wild Card spot. Aside from the Dodgers, no team in the Wild Card mix has a better run differential than San Diego’s +19 figure. Despite the mediocre start, there’s still plenty of time for the Friars to play their way into the postseason picture.

Soto should be a central part of that effort. His start in San Diego raised some eyebrows, but he’s looked much more like himself over the last six weeks. Continued production like that should quiet questions about whether his camp had made a grave mistake turning down a reported $440MM extension offer from Washington before the trade. He has a chance to make last summer and this April look like a blip. He looks on his way to doing so.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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