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The Dodgers’ Rotation Options If Tony Gonsolin Misses Time

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The Dodgers were dealt some undesirable news last week when All-Star starter Tony Gonsolin rolled his left ankle during a pitcher-fielding practice session. He was diagnosed with a sprain and unable to put much weight on the leg for a few days.

Manager Dave Roberts told reporters yesterday that Gonsolin has again started throwing (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). He’s progressed to long toss from 120 feet but has yet to return to the mound. With Opening Day two weeks out, it seems increasingly likely he’ll require a stint on the 15-day injured list.

If that proves the case, the Dodgers will have to add someone to the season-opening rotation behind Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May. Los Angeles doesn’t have the luxury some clubs do of many built-in off days early in the year. They’re scheduled for games in 13 of the first 14 days and 24 of the initial 26 days of the regular season. Unless the club wants to cover some starts via bullpen games, they’ll need a fifth starter if Gonsolin isn’t available.

Likely Front Runners

Ryan Pepiot, 25, two minor league option years remaining

Pepiot seems the favorite for the job. He started seven of his first nine big league games last season, working to a 3.47 ERA over 36 1/3 innings. Pepiot struck out an above-average 26.3% of opponents but his 16.9% walk rate was untenable for a player hoping to stick in a rotation. He showed more serviceable control in the minors, walking 9.8% of batters faced with a lofty 30.9% strikeout rate and a 2.56 ERA in 91 1/3 frames for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

A former third-round pick, Pepiot has developed into one of the better pitching prospects in the sport. The Butler product has a wipeout changeup and plus spin on a fastball that averaged just under 94 MPH last season. Evaluators have expressed trepidation about his breaking ball and especially the consistency of his strike-throwing. Still, he’s an intriguing young pitcher with upper minors success who has shown a decent ability to miss bats early in his time at the big league level. He’s not a finished product but could be capable of providing the Dodgers with a few solid starts in a fill-in capacity.

Michael Grove, 26, two options remaining

A second-round pick in the 2018 draft, Grove overcame some early-career injury concerns to reach the majors last year. He started six of his first seven big league games, posting a 4.60 ERA through 29 1/3 frames. That came with a modest 18% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact. The 6’3″ righty did a solid job throwing strikes, though, limiting walks to a roughly average 7.5% clip.

Like Pepiot, Grove had a solid 2022 campaign in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting. He posted a 4.07 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A frames, fanning 26.7% of batters faced against an 8.2% walk percentage. Grove held right-handed batters at the top minor league level to a .213/.266/.368 line over 263 plate appearances. Lefties, on the other hand, teed off at a .279/.344/.541 clip in 192 trips to the dish. It was a similar story at the MLB level. Righties hit .241/.293/.389 in his limited look, while left-handers managed a .275/.333/.522 slash.

Grove doesn’t throw a changeup, relying on a fastball/slider/curveball combination. Prospect evaluators have raised questions about his ability to handle left-handed hitters without a pitch that breaks away from them. That has led to concern about whether he can stick in an MLB rotation long term, though the Dodgers could match him up against right-handed heavy teams like Colorado and the Cubs in the season’s first couple weeks.

Top Prospects

Gavin Stone, 24, not yet on 40-man roster

Stone fell to the fifth round in the 2020 draft. That now looks like a coup, as the Central Arkansas product is a top 100 prospect on lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and ESPN. He’s now the second-best pitching prospect in the organization (more on that in a minute) after an utterly dominant minor league season. Across three levels, he combined for a 1.92 ERA with an elite 33.9% strikeout rate and serviceable 8.9% walk percentage through 121 2/3 frames. That culminated in six Triple-A outings, in which he allowed only six runs over 23 1/3 innings.

It now seems a matter of when, not if, Stone will make his big league debut this season. Evaluators credit the 6’1″ righty with a mid-90s fastball and one of the best changeups in the minor leagues and suggest he could be a mid-rotation arm in the near future. He doesn’t have a ton of Triple-A experience and isn’t yet on the 40-man, so the most straightforward move would be to send him back to Oklahoma City to open the season. Given his minor league dominance, there’s at least an argument for plugging him in above Pepiot and Grove immediately, even if it’d require a 40-man roster move to do so.

Bobby Miller, 23, not yet on 40-man roster

The Dodgers’ first-round pick in that ’20 draft class, Miller has shot through the minor league ranks and now ranks among the best prospects in the sport. The Louisville product had a 4.45 ERA over 20 outings for Double-A Tulsa last season. That’s not the most impressive mark but it seems the product of an unlucky 62.5% strand rate. Miller struck out an excellent 30.5% of opponents, induced grounders at a quality 48.2% clip, and kept his walks to an 8.1% rate. He earned a late-season bump to Oklahoma City, where he posted elite strikeout and ground-ball marks over four outings.

He’s now almost universally regarded as the organization’s best pitching prospect and a top 50 minor league talent overall. The righty draws unanimous praise for an upper-90s fastball, a pair of power breaking pitches, and an advanced changeup. Miller’s command is still a work in progress but there’s little question the arsenal can play against major league hitters.

Miller doesn’t figure to be an option for the season-opening rotation. Roberts told reporters last week he was being built up slowly to monitor his workload and was unlikely to pitch in a Spring Training game (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). He’ll almost certainly be in the majors at some point in 2023 though.

Further Down Depth Chart

Andre Jackson, 26, one option remaining

Jackson has never started a big league game, coming out of the bullpen for all seven of his MLB appearances from 2021-22. The Utah product has worked as a starter in the minors, opening 19 of 21 outings with Oklahoma City last year. He allowed exactly five earned runs per nine innings in Triple-A. Jackson had decent enough strikeout and ground-ball numbers but walked an astronomical 17.2% of opposing hitters.

That’d put him behind Pepiot and Grove on the depth chart. Jackson is on the 40-man roster, though, seemingly giving him a leg up compared to the non-roster invitees in camp. He’s headed into what would be his final option year, so he’ll need to improve his control before long if he’s to earn an extended MLB look in Los Angeles.

Dylan Covey/Robbie Erlin

Both Covey and Erlin have some big league experience and are in camp as non-roster veterans. The 32-year-old Erlin was hit hard in 77 innings with Oklahoma City last season. Covey, 31, returned stateside after a couple solid years in Taiwan’s top league. Covey, in particular, has gotten out to a good start in camp. He’s struck out eight without issuing a walk over six innings. Still, neither seems likely to leapfrog the younger arms in the organization for a season-opening rotation look.

Nick Nastrini/Landon Knack

Nastrini and Knack are both fairly recent college draftees who reached Double-A last season. They’re each among the mid-tier prospects in a strong L.A. system and flashed bat-missing potential with Tulsa. Both pitchers could eventually get an MLB look, though neither figures to be in consideration for a job out of camp. They’re not yet on the 40-man and have yet to reach Triple-A.

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The Dodgers again have a few exciting pitching prospects, two of whom have already gotten a taste of the majors. Pepiot and Grove would accordingly be the safest choices to take the final rotation spot if Gonsolin can’t start the season but they’re not as touted as Miller and Stone. The latter two figure to take the Dodger Stadium mound at some point in 2023, the next in a long line of pitching talent to come through the system.

Out Of Options 2023

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Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

  • None

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma

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Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.

Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.

Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.

That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.

Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.

With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.

As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.

Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.

Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).

Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.

Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.

Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.

To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.

It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.

Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.

It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds had another slow offseason, their second straight winter defined mostly by inactivity. It’s a rebuild in Cincinnati, with the upcoming season again more about evaluating the future than winning in the short term.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $11.675MM
Total spending: $13.925MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Reds stripped things down over the 2021-22 offseason, dismantling a team that had finished a few games off a Wild Card appearance. Payroll constraints led to a reboot of the roster, with a number of veterans shipped out for young talent either last winter or at the summer deadline. That teardown paired with brutal injury luck resulted in the second 100-loss season in franchise history.

It’s an organization now clearly amidst a rebuild. There was never much expectation for the Reds to do a whole lot this offseason, and general manager Nick Krall essentially confirmed as much before the winter got underway.

Unlike last winter, when the likes of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Jesse Winker and Sonny Gray were on the roster, Cincinnati didn’t go into this offseason with many obvious trade chips. The most apparent candidate was shortstop Kyle Farmer, who was headed into his second-to-last season of arbitration control. Farmer is a low-end regular at shortstop or high-quality utility piece who’d have modest appeal to a contender. Cincinnati indeed cashed him in for young talent.

It was a one-for-one swap with the Twins that brought back Double-A swingman Casey Legumina. The Gonzaga product had just been added to the Minnesota 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’ll start the season in the upper minors but could factor into the MLB mix later in the year.

Hours after trading away Farmer, Cincinnati backfilled at shortstop with another stopgap veteran. The Reds and division-rival Pirates aligned on a deal that brought in Kevin Newman for middle reliever Dauri Moreta. Newman is also in his penultimate arbitration season and broadly brings a similar profile to the departed Farmer: a contact-oriented offensive approach at the bottom of a lineup and solid glovework. Newman is a little more affordable and could be a midseason trade chip.

He steps into an infield that has a handful of players vying for reps. It’s unknown if Joey Votto will be ready for Opening Day after last summer’s rotator cuff surgery; once healthy, the former MVP will be back at first base. Jonathan India is looking for a bounceback year at second base.

Newman is the presumptive starting shortstop. Jose Barrero could also get one more look to see if he can piece things together offensively. Barrero was a fairly recent top prospect based on his power and defense. He’s coming off an atrocious season in both Triple-A and the big leagues, though, and the clock could be ticking for him to carve out a role. Elly De La Cruz has now firmly emerged as the likely shortstop of the future; he’ll start the year in the upper minors but could make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Third base also features a few talented but unproven players trying to cement themselves. Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins in last summer’s Mahle trade, made his debut last September. He struggled in his first 28 outings but had an excellent age-24 season in Triple-A. He’ll get the first crack at the hot corner, though there was plenty of buzz in Cincinnati camp regarding corner infield prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Also part of the Mahle trade package, Encarnacion-Strand mashed between High-A and Double-A last season. The Oklahoma State product tore the cover off the ball in Spring Training. Cincinnati reassigned him to minor league camp yesterday, taking him out of the running for an Opening Day roster spot, but he could push Steer for reps before long. That’s also true of Noelvi Marte, a power-hitting infield prospect brought back from the Mariners in the Castillo deal.

The Reds made a firm commitment to the infield youth movement when they released Mike Moustakas in early January. The three-time All-Star was headed into the final season of an ill-advised four-year, $64MM free agent deal. Moustakas had hit only .216/.300/.383 in just 654 plate appearances as a Red. His 2022 campaign was diminished by both underperformance and foot injuries. With little hope of another team taking any notable portion of the $22MM he was due this season, the Reds acknowledged the sunk cost and opened a clearer path to reps for younger players like Steer and Encarnacion-Strand.

Cincinnati should also have room on the bench for a non-roster Spring Training invitee or two. The Reds had arguably the best minor league signing of last winter with Brandon Drury, and they again leveraged their lack of certainty on the roster to bring in a swath of veterans on non-roster pacts. Chad Pinder, Henry Ramos and Jason Vosler are among the position players in camp, while Cincinnati brought in over 10 relievers with some level of MLB experience on minor league deals.

As with the left side of the infield, the outfield is up in the air for players to seize a job. Jake Fraley probably has the leg up on a corner spot after a solid second half. The Reds have maintained they’re going to give former top prospect Nick Senzel another crack in center field. He won’t be ready for Opening Day, so the likes of TJ Friedl and Stuart Fairchild could get on the roster.

The Reds rolled the dice on a pair of former top prospects to add to that mix. Their first move of the offseason was to bring in Nick Solak from the Rangers for cash. It was a no-risk flier on a player who has hit well in the upper minors but struggled to carry that over against MLB pitching. Solak doesn’t have a great positional fit — he struggled mightily at second base and is a fringy corner outfielder as well — but he’s a former second-round draftee who has a .293/.370/.510 line in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

While the Reds didn’t give up anything for Solak, they parted with last year’s second-rounder Justin Boyd to take a shot on 24-year-old Will Benson from the Guardians. A first-round pick in 2016, the 6’5″ Benson has moved extremely slowly up the minor league ranks thanks to huge strikeout totals. He’s shown as patient an approach as anyone in affiliated ball, however, and he clearly has raw power potential. While he’s taken some time to climb the ladder, he’s consistently fared better in his second crack at a level than during his first. That was particularly true last season in Triple-A, when Benson sliced his strikeout rate to a personal-best 22.7% en route to a .278/.426/.522 line.

In addition to those fliers on upside plays, the Reds added to the corner outfield in their biggest free agent move of the winter. Cincinnati guaranteed $7.5MM to Wil Myers on a one-year deal, giving him a chance to rebuild his stock in a hitter-friendly home ballpark. Myers had an up-and-down tenure in San Diego, hitting for power but struggling to make enough contact to be a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter. At age 32, he’s not a long-term core piece for Cincinnati. He’s a perfectly reasonable veteran addition to a young team, one who’d surely be in trade conversations this summer if he’s performing.

Myers is likely to see the bulk of his playing time in right field. That’s in large part because the club is planning to give young catcher Tyler Stephenson more time at designated hitter. The 26-year-old went on the injured list three times last season, all of which were related to incidents behind the plate. He was concussed in a collision with Luke Voit and both fractured his thumb and clavicle on foul tips. Those injuries were all fluky in nature, although there’s little doubt Stephenson will have a better chance of sticking in the lineup if he’s not donning the tools of ignorance as often.

Skipper David Bell told reporters at the start of Spring Training the Reds were aiming for Stephenson to play around 65 games at catcher and 80+ contests at first base/DH (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). With that in mind, Cincinnati added a pair of veteran backstops to take some of the workload. Northern Kentucky native Luke Maile signed a one-year, $1.175MM pact in November. He was joined by power-hitting veteran Curt Casali, who received $3.25MM in January to return to the Reds for a second stint.

The Reds didn’t do as much to augment the pitching staff, even on lower-cost pickups of the Maile/Casali ilk. The only such addition was right-hander Luke Weaver, who signed for $2MM after being non-tendered by the Mariners. Weaver is another former top prospect who showed some early-career success but has fallen on hard times of late. Great American Ball Park isn’t an ideal venue for a pitcher to try to rebuild value. That said, the Reds are likely to afford the 29-year-old another shot to get the ball every fifth day and take a crack at developing a breaking pitch he feels comfortable using regularly.

Weaver will step into the fourth spot in the season-opening rotation. The top three will go to second-year hurlers Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. All three have a chance to be core pieces of the next competitive Cincinnati team, with Greene and Lodolo former top ten picks and consensus top prospects. The final rotation spot is up for grabs this spring. Justin Dunn is out of the immediate mix thanks to shoulder issues. The likes of Connor Overton, Luis Cessa and minor league signee Chase Anderson are battling for the job. Prospects Brandon Williamson and Levi Stoudt could join the group over the summer.

Open competition is also the story of the bullpen. Cincinnati didn’t add any MLB veterans to a relief corps that was among the league’s worst. The only acquisitions were Legumina and waiver claim Bennett Sousa, both of whom could start the year in the minors. Cincinnati should welcome back Lucas Sims from an injury-plagued season. They’d hoped for the same with Tejay Antone but he suffered a forearm strain while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will start the year on the injured list.

Cincinnati has breakout reliever Alexis Díaz ticketed for ninth-inning work. One of the few bright spots of the 2022 campaign, the hard-throwing righty reportedly drew some trade interest over the winter which Cincinnati rebuffed. Sims and Buck Farmer should have high-leverage work and could be trade candidates this summer. The middle relief corps is wide open, with the likes of Silvino Bracho, Daniel Norris, Derek Law, Alex Young and Hunter Strickland trying to earn jobs in Spring Training.

Broadly speaking, the 2023 campaign will be about evaluating players for the future and identifying what veterans could be shipped off in the coming months. It’s hard to envision this team finishing higher than fourth in the National League Central. The Reds are near the lowest period of the rebuild, with most of the veteran players shipped away. They’ll continue to incorporate young talent as they look ahead to next offseason, one which could see a relative spike in activity.

Cincinnati doesn’t have a single player under guaranteed contract for 2024, with option buyouts for Votto, Moustakas, Myers and Casali representing the only firm commitments. The slate is almost clean for the front office to chart a new path back to contention. In the interim, the fanbase is in for another losing season.

MLBTR is conducting team-specific chats in conjunction with the Offseason In Review series. Anthony Franco held a chat about the Reds on March 16. Click here to view the transcript.

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Examining The Tigers’ Options Behind The Plate

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The Tigers had a quiet offseason in Scott Harris’ first winter as president of baseball operations. The new front office head seems content to take a season to evaluate the organization before reevaluating where to invest to return to playoff competitiveness in 2024 and beyond.

Throughout the lineup, the club has players trying to carve out long-term roles. MLBTR looked through various outfield possibilities a couple months ago. The infield might be a little more settled, with the likes of Spencer Torkelson, Jonathan Schoop and Javier Báez seemingly in position for regular playing time. There’s a fair bit of uncertainty about how manager A.J. Hinch will divide reps behind the dish, as Detroit allowed last year’s primary backstop Tucker Barnhart to depart in free agency after a down season.

Turning to the players who remain in Detroit:

Jake Rogers, 27, one minor league option remaining

Rogers’ defense has caught the attention of evaluators for years. Prospect writers credited the Tulane product as a plus or better defender, praising his athleticism, receiving, arm strength and acumen for handling a pitching staff. Those strong defensive reviews have been paired with longstanding questions about how much he’ll contribute at the plate. That has manifested at the MLB level, as the righty-swinging Rogers has only a .182/.264/.378 line with ten home runs but a massive 38% strikeout rate in 73 big league games.

Those were split between 2019-21, as Rogers lost all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He’s healthy again now and has gotten into 11 Spring Training contests. He hasn’t yet topped more than 40 big league games in any season but his defensive reputation could earn him an extended look at some point.

Eric Haase, 30, zero options remaining

Haase was arguably Detroit’s best offensive player last year, at least on a rate basis. Among Tigers’ hitters with 200+ plate appearances, he was the only one who produced at an above-average level by measure of wRC+. Haase hit .254/.306/.443 through 351 trips to the dish. His strikeout and walk numbers weren’t great but he connected on 14 home runs. That came on the heels of a 22-homer showing over just 98 contests the prior year.

The former Cleveland draftee clearly brings above-average right-handed power upside. Even with fairly modest on-base numbers, he’s a strong offensive catcher. Haase has never really established himself on the other side of the ball though. Statcast has graded him as a well below-average pitch framer and placed him near the bottom of the league with regards to keeping balls in front of him. He’s shown solid arm strength but not particularly polished receiving.

Haase is athletic enough to take some time in left field. He’s logged 216 2/3 innings there over the past two seasons and could continue to factor into the outfield. He’s out of options and brings some much-needed power to the Detroit lineup, so he’ll be on the roster, though it doesn’t necessarily have to come at catcher given his defensive question marks.

Donny Sands, 26, two options remaining

Sands, a Yankee draftee, has been in the professional ranks for over seven years. An eighth-round pick out of high school in 2015, he’s very slowly climbed the minor league ladder. Sands didn’t advance past the low minors until 2021. A solid showing between the top two minor league levels that year caught the attention of the Phillies, who acquired him that offseason. The right-handed hitter spent almost all of last season with Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate, raking at a .308/.413/.428 clip with a massive 15.7% walk rate and solid 18.2% strikeout percentage over 242 plate appearances.

The Phils didn’t have an opportunity for Sands at the MLB level. J.T. Realmuto is entrenched as the starter, while Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán make for quality depth options. Sands only appeared in three big league contests — his first MLB action — as a September call-up. This winter, the Phils packaged him with Nick Maton and Matt Vierling in the Gregory Soto deal.

Sands hasn’t gotten a look at big league pitching. He’s 26 and has never been a high-profile prospect. Still, there’s nothing left for him to prove against minor league arms. The Tigers can keep him in the minors through 2024 but they might be best served seeing what they have sooner than later. Detroit has a pair of interesting catching prospects — Dillon Dingler and Josh Crouch — who have reached Double-A and could play their way onto the MLB radar by ’24. It’d behoove them to know where Sands fits in that hierarchy before those younger players are in consideration for roster spots.

Andrew Knapp, 31, not on 40-man roster

Knapp signed a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite over the offseason. He’s a known quantity for Harris, who was part of the Giants’ front office when the switch-hitter played for San Francisco last season. Knapp, who had played solely for the Phillies before a nomadic 2022 campaign, was also kept off the field by Realmuto at Citizens Bank Park. He’s never really produced when given intermittent big league opportunities, hitting .209/.310/.313 over 325 games. He’s the most experienced catcher in camp but not presently on the 40-man roster.

Mario Feliciano/Michael Papierski

Feliciano and Papierski each logged brief MLB action in 2022. The former appeared in two games for the Brewers, while the latter got into 39 contests between the Giants and Reds. Detroit snagged both off waivers this offseason but didn’t keep either player on the roster. The Tigers non-tendered Papierski before re-signing him to a minor league deal; Feliciano was run through waivers within two weeks of being claimed. Neither hit especially well in Triple-A last year. They’ll be in the organization as upper level insurance but seem behind the group of Rogers, Haase, Sands and perhaps Knapp on the depth chart.

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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The Mets had a huge number of players departing via free agency, but owner Steve Cohen signed off on new heights of spending to replenish the roster. In some cases, familiar faces were brought back, but there are also some intriguing new additions. The payroll almost went even higher, as the Mets took center stage in the middle chapter of the Carlos Correa saga. Even though that mega deal ultimately fell through, the Mets still shot way past previous spending records and the highest luxury tax bracket in their aim of putting together another competitive team for 2023.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $144.5MM
Total spending: $498.17MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Mets had a very strong season in 2022, winning 101 games, their second-highest tally in franchise history. However, it ended with a few sour notes. Though the Mets were leading the National League East for most of the year, a scorching-hot Atlanta club blasted past them in the final days of the season to capture the division title and secure a bye through the Wild Card round. That left the Mets to face off against the Padres in a three-game series that they eventually lost.

In the aftermath of that tough finish, the Mets were looking at a challenging offseason scenario, with a great number of impending departures. Brandon Nimmo was the most notable position player heading into free agency, but he was potentially going to be joined by a huge chunk of the pitching staff. Jacob deGrom opted out of his contract, while Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker each declined options. The club decided to trigger their option over Carlos Carrasco to prevent a fourth departure. In the bullpen, Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Mychal Givens, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter were all headed out the door. That left general manager Billy Eppler a huge to-do list, but owner Steve Cohen greenlit unprecedented spending in order to get things back in order.

First up was Díaz, who was already one of the most-feared relievers in MLB before taking his game to new heights in 2022. He posted a 1.31 ERA over 61 appearances with a ridiculous 50.2% strikeout rate. Based on that monster campaign, the Mets wasted little time in bringing him back aboard. The day after the World Series ended, the Mets and Díaz were already in agreement on a five-year, $102MM deal, a record-setting guarantee for a relief pitcher in terms of both annual value and total guarantee.

There would still be more work to do in the bullpen, but the switched to the rotation following the Díaz deal. In a span of less than two weeks in early December, deGrom signed with the Rangers, Walker with the Phillies and Bassitt with the Blue Jays. The Mets effectively replaced them by signing free agents Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana.

The deGrom and Verlander moves amount to a swap of aces, though they come at different point in their careers. deGrom will turn 35 in June but has been limited by injuries over the past two years. Nonetheless, he secured a five-year deal from the Rangers. Verlander, on the other hand, is now 40. He essentially missed the entire 2020-2021 seasons, making just a single start in the former season before Tommy John put him on the shelf. Incredibly, he returned to the mound in 2022 and made 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, earning a Cy Young Award in the process. He tied Scherzer’s record-setting average annual value from the Mets, but on just a two-year guarantee.

Overall, this flutter of moves left the Mets with a strong on-paper rotation, but one with lots of risk. Senga has been an excellent starter in Japan, with a career ERA of 2.42 in NPB and a 1.94 figure last year. However, the move over the Pacific doesn’t always go according to plan, making Senga less than a sure thing. Quintana is coming off a great 2022 campaign but had a real rough showing in the two prior seasons.

There’s also the general looming risk of pitcher injuries to consider, which is present for every team but will be particularly notable with this group. Of the projected starting five, Senga is the only one who’s under 34 years old. Though Senga is just 30, he will be making the transition from Japan where pitchers usually take the ball once a week, to the five-day rotation preferred in North America. It’s virtually impossible for any five-man rotation to stay 100% healthy for an entire season, and this club’s relatively older group might need some extra focus on this department.

It looks like they might have to lean on their depth right out of the gate, as Quintana is set to undergo bone graft surgery to address a benign lesion on his rib and will be out until at least July. Fortunately, the Mets have a solid group of depth starters like David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi. They also acquired Elieser Hernández from the Marlins this winter, giving them another option.

In the midst of all that rotation shuffle, the club also took the Díaz approach to Brandon Nimmo, outbidding the field to keep him in the fold. There’s certainly risk in giving an eight-year deal to a player who has long had the injury-prone label, but he’s avoided lengthy absences in the past few years and he was easily the best center fielder available. High-risk options like Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier were the primary free-agent alternatives, and the trade market lacked options. The Mets clearly preferred to just stick with Nimmo and put down $162MM to prevent him from getting away.

There was one other outfield addition to come later, with Tommy Pham being brought in. He’s long been a strong option against left-handed pitchers and could perhaps take over that specialist role that Darin Ruf was supposed to fill last year. With left-handed hitting Daniel Vogelbach seemingly lined up to be the primary designated hitter, Pham could take the small half of a platoon there, while also occasionally giving the regular outfielders time off on occasion.

The club also decided it was time to move on from the James McCann experiment. He parlayed two good years with the White Sox, one of which was the shortened 2020 season, into a four-year deal with the Mets. But the first two years in Queens were quite dismal and it was decided to make a switch. The Mets signed Omar Narváez and traded McCann to the Orioles, eating most of his contract in the process. That’s a defensible move from a pure baseball perspective, but it’s an expensive one. The Mets will essentially have both catchers on the books and will be paying significant taxes on each, given where their payroll eventually ended up.

Circling back to the bullpen, bringing Díaz back was an impactful move, but there was still much more to do. The club would eventually re-sign Ottavino, in addition to adding David Robertson via free agency. Trades also brought aboard Brooks Raley and Jeff Brigham, while Sam Coonrod and Stephen Ridings were claimed off waivers and Zach Greene was selected in the Rule 5 (though he’s since been returned to the Yankees). There will also be a pseudo new addition in John Curtiss, who was signed a year ago but missed all of 2022 recovery from Tommy John surgery.

As mentioned, all of these moves shot the payroll up to incredible new heights, but it almost went even higher due to the unprecedented Carlos Correa free agency. Correa seemed destined to be a Giant for a time, as he and the club agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal in December. However, the club raised concerns about something in his physical, later revealed to be his right ankle. The Mets swooped in and agreed to bring Correa aboard for $315MM over 12 years, slightly less than his first agreement. The club already had a shortstop in Francisco Lindor but was planning to install Correa at third, displacing Eduardo Escobar. Correa’s agent Scott Boras reportedly contacted Cohen directly as the latter was vacationing in Hawaii, with Cohen both greenlighting the agreement and discussing it publicly with the media. “I felt like our pitching was in good shape,” Cohen said at the time. “We needed one more hitter. This puts us over the top.”

The holiday slow-down period arrived without the deal becoming official and reports started to emerge that the Mets had similar concerns to the Giants. In a stunning twist, the Mets and Correa’s camp couldn’t get the deal over the finish line and he eventually signed with the Twins on a much smaller $200MM guarantee. The six-year deal with Minnesota is just half the length of his agreement with the Mets, though there are four vesting options that could potentially take the contract to the ten-year mark.

With that deal falling through, the Mets will go into 2023 with a position player mix that’s fairly similar to last year’s club. Pham is a new addition but Dominic Smith is out after being non-tendered. Narváez will swap in for McCann behind the plate and Danny Mendick will be in the mix for a reserve infield role.

The pitching staff has seen much more turnover, but the outlook doesn’t appear to be drastically different. With Max Scherzer still around, the club can still deploy a strong one-two punch at the top of the rotation, with Verlander slotting into deGrom’s place. Carrasco is back and hanging onto a spot, and Senga will replace one of Bassitt or Walker. A healthy Quintana could eventually offset the loss of the other, but the Mets will test their depth early in the season. Peterson and Megill are both solid options who’d likely have rotation jobs elsewhere, and either could capably hold down a spot while Quintana mends. The bullpen ended up retaining Díaz and Ottavino, while players like Robertson and Raley will try to make up for the departures of Lugo, May, Rodriguez and others.

It can be debated about whether the 2023 roster is stronger or weaker than the 2022 version, but it seems to be in roughly the same area. The Mets are still good and should be in competition with Atlanta and Philly for the division yet again — but keeping pace with those clubs wasn’t cheap. Even without Correa on the books, Roster Resource pegs the Mets for a pure payroll of $355MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $374MM. Both of those numbers are well beyond anything in baseball history.

Since the Mets paid the luxury tax in 2022, they will be a second-time payor in 2023. The new collective bargaining agreement significantly pushed the tax thresholds but also added a fourth tier, colloquially dubbed the “Steve Cohen tax,” as it has been seen by many as an attempt to rein in baseball’s richest owner. However, it doesn’t seem to have been terribly effective, given that the Mets have blown past that $293MM tier. As a second time payor, the Mets’ taxation tiers at the four different thresholds are 30%, 42%, 75% and 90%. The CBT isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so midseason moves will change the calculus, but the club is currently facing a tax bill of about $102MM on top of that $355MM payroll. They will also certainly have their top 2024 draft pick pushed back ten slots, as is the case for any clubs going over the third CBT tier.

This staggering commitment to winning is surely welcomed by segments of the fanbase, especially those who were so critical of the Wilpon family for not acting like a big market club during their tenure as owners prior to selling to Cohen. But not everyone around the majors is as enthused, with some of the league’s less-spendthrift owners recently forming an economic reform committee. The goal of this huddle seems to be some early game-planning for the next CBA, with some desiring a hard salary cap that would more adequately handcuff Cohen. That might be difficult to achieve with the MLBPA understandably having no real desire to allow such a cap to come into being, but it’s clear that Cohen’s imprint on the game is going to have reverberations. The current CBA lasts through the 2026 season, so it’s not a short-term concern, but it seems this offseason from the Mets has contributed to a future collision course.

How would you grade the Mets’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Mets’ offseason review, we hosted a Mets-focused chat on March 15. You can click here to read the transcript.

The Royals’ Potential Infield Competitions

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The Royals head into 2023 with a pair of infield spots sewn up. Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are arguably the two most important players in the organization. They’ll be at shortstop and first base, respectively, on an everyday basis if healthy.

Who will fill in alongside them on the dirt is a key question for the front office and first-year skipper Matt Quatraro. The second and third base positions look fluid, and while there are perhaps a pair of early favorites for playing time, both will likely need to perform well early on to hold the job.

Michael Massey

Massey, 25 next week, enters the season as the presumptive second baseman. The Illinois product was called upon in early August and got into his first 52 big league contests last year. Through 194 plate appearances, he hit .243/.307/.376 with four home runs. Massey only walked in 4.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at a 23.7% clip that was a little higher than league average.

It was a fine debut but not a resounding showing that’d firmly stake a claim to the job. A former fourth-round pick, Massey has generally been viewed by prospect evaluators as a well-rounded player but one without overwhelming upside. He’s coming off an excellent showing in the upper minors, though, hitting .312/.371/.532 in 87 games between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha.

Hunter Dozier

Dozier is headed into the third season of a four-year contract extension. The first two years haven’t gone as the club envisioned, with the former eighth overall draftee hitting only .226/.289/.391 with a 7.4% walk rate and 26.7% strikeout percentage in more than 1000 plate appearances. Paired with a corner only defensive profile, Dozier’s production has checked in below replacement level over that stretch. He’s yet to consistently maintain the level he showed in 2019, when he connected on 26 home runs with a .279/.348/.522 slash.

Despite the past few seasons’ struggles, the Royals seem set to give Dozier another crack. General manager J.J. Picollo told reporters on the eve of Spring Training that the 31-year-old was likely to see regular work at third base (via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). He’s played primarily first base and the corner outfield since 2020. Public defensive metrics haven’t been particularly enthused with his glovework anywhere on the diamond.

Nicky Lopez

Lopez has been in Kansas City’s Opening Day lineup in each of the last three years. That consistent playing time was due to his elite contact skills and defensive profile up the middle. Lopez has bottom-of-the-scale power and an offensive approach designed to hit the ball on the ground. He rode an unsustainable .347 batting average on balls in play to some success in 2021 but has otherwise been a well below-average hitter at the MLB level.

Even without much offensive impact, Lopez has shown some value in a bottom-of-the-lineup role. He’s a quality baserunner, an attribute that could be a bit more impactful than in years past thanks to the rule changes incentivizing more aggressive running. More importantly, he’s a strong gloveman at both middle infield spots. The division rival White Sox checked in on Lopez as part of their search for second base help in January, though K.C. was reportedly not eager to deal him for what’d have presumably been a fairly meager return. He’d likely be the first person up at the keystone if Massey doesn’t seize the opportunity early in the year.

Nate Eaton

The 26-year-old Eaton earned his big league debut last summer after hitting .295/.376/.510 in Omaha. He played regularly at third base down the stretch, getting into 44 games. Over his first 122 MLB plate appearances, Eaton hit a league average .264/.331/.387 and swiped 11 bases in 12 attempts. It was a strong showing from the former 21st-round pick that should earn him a roster spot out of camp.

Whether Eaton will get an everyday look at any one position remains to be seen. He’s played a decent amount of corner outfield in the minor leagues in addition to his time at third base. If Kansas City brass prefers him as an outfielder, they should have plenty of at-bats to afford him on the grass. He could also rotate through a handful of positions as a bat-first utility option from the right side of the plate.

Maikel García

García, 23, has just nine big league games under his belt. Aside from that cup of coffee, the Venezuela native split the 2022 season between the top two minor league levels. García hit .285/.359/.427 in 555 combined plate appearances, showing solid plate discipline and contact skills while stealing 39 bases.

Baseball America ranked him the #6 prospect in the organization this offseason. García only has 40 games of Triple-A experience and seems likely to start the year in Omaha but he could factor in at either second or third base in Kansas City before long. He’s played almost exclusively shortstop in the minors and will presumably start to branch out to other infield positions soon with Witt established at shortstop in Kansas City.

Samad Taylor

The Royals acquired the 24-year-old Taylor from the Blue Jays last summer as part of a two-player return for Whit Merrifield. Kansas City selected his contract this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. That puts him on the radar for his first big league call at some point, though he could certainly start the year in Omaha. The former 10th-round selection had hit .258/.337/.426 with nine homers and 23 steals in 70 games for the Jays’ top affiliate before the deal. He didn’t appear in a game with Omaha after the trade because of injury but is now healthy and participating in Spring Training. BA slotted him as the organization’s #24 prospect, suggesting he’s likely to serve a utility role.

Matt Duffy/Johan Camargo/Matt Beaty

This trio of veterans is in camp on minor league deals. They’re all jockeying for a possible utility role in Spring Training, with Beaty and Duffy off to strong starts in exhibition play. Duffy is a high-contact hitter who probably has the highest offensive floor of the group. Camargo offers the most defensive flexibility with the ability to play shortstop. Beaty has shown an intriguing combination of power and contact skills at his best but isn’t a great defender anywhere and is looking to rebound from a Murphy’s law 2022 campaign.

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Massey and Dozier look like the likeliest second and third base duo to start the season. Neither seems a lock to hold the job all year, though, raising the possibility for the club to go in a few different directions. Lopez offers a glove-first alternative off the bench, while younger players like García, Eaton and Taylor could play their way into opportunities if players above them on the depth chart struggle. García, in particular, seems like a potential long-term regular based on his defense and strike zone awareness.

Big Hype Prospects: Brennan, Cavalli, Malloy, O’Hoppe, Capel

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, I play it fast and loose with “big hype” in order to focus on some Spring Training battles.

Five BHPs In The News

Will Brennan, 25, OF, CLE (MLB)
(AAA) 433 PA, 9 HR, 15 SB, .316/.367/.471

A favorite of mine and my main contact with Baseball America, Brennan is in a roster battle with Oscar Gonzalez and Myles Straw this spring. Between average discipline and a strong feel for contact, he’s the Guardians latest candidate to walk more than he strikes out. The left-handed hitter looks like a future doubles machine even if his home run output is a tad underwhelming. His defense is solid in the corners and passable in center. With Straw on the roster and a fly ball-oriented pitching staff, he’s not ideal for center field. The lack of home run potential is an odd look in an outfield corner, yet his feel for hard contact implies a three- or four-win player in a similar mold to teammate Steven Kwan. After Gonzalez shatter expectations last season, it will be interesting to see how the Guardians distribute playing time.

Cade Cavalli, 24, SP, WSH (MLB)
(AAA) 97 IP, 9.65 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 3.71 ERA

Cavalli made his debut last fall and struggled in his only appearance. He flashed his impressive repertoire of four above average offerings, but his below average command was also on display. This is a profile that tends to experience success in the Majors after a sometimes lengthy adjustment period. The Nationals will be looking to build him up after throwing only 101.1 total innings last season. He’s expected to break camp with the club. Don’t be surprised if they take opportunities to give him extra rest or restrict his innings per start. The plan should look similar to the usage of Josiah Gray last season. He threw 148.2 innings across 28 starts. As a stuff-over-command starter, he has some of the same markers as Dylan Cease.

Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23, 3B, DET (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 591 PA, 17 HR, 5 SB, .289/.408/.454

After lighting up three levels in 2022, the Braves included Malloy in the Joe Jimenez trade. Atlanta’s recent track record with prospect trades is rather incredible. For the most part, they’ve kept the winners and dealt away the laggards. Malloy’s inclusion in a trade for a reliever with a checkered past could be viewed as a negative mark. I polled two scouting contacts and received different takes. One doesn’t believe Malloy impacts the ball enough to be a high-probability regular. The other is more optimistic about the plate discipline carrying the profile. Malloy walked in 16.4 percent of plate appearances last season while keeping his swinging strike rate below 10 percent. He has an extreme pulled contact approach with a roughly balanced 20/40/40 blend of liners/grounders/flies. Malloy resembles a Max Muncy starter kit – just keep in mind Muncy finally broke out in his age 27 season. There’s no guarantee Malloy finds the barreled and hard contact rates that drive Muncy’s success. On the other hand, he has a decent shot to play his way onto the roster later this season.

Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544

Acquired in the Brandon Marsh trade, O’Hoppe is competing with Max Stassi and out-of-options Matt Thaiss for the Angels catching job. Aside from a brief 16 plate appearance debut, O’Hoppe spent all of last season in Double-A. This spring, he has neither thrived nor embarrassed himself to this point. His 2022 breakout seemed predicated on a surge of plate discipline. That he further improved upon joining the Angels affiliate, including a .306/.473/.673 line in 131 plate appearances, is a positive sign. Assuming the club avoids injury, it could be tempting to give O’Hoppe further seasoning in Triple-A. There seemingly isn’t room for all three of Stassi, Thaiss, and O’Hoppe on the roster. While he’s their catcher of the future, clinging to Thaiss in the short-term makes some sense.

Conner Capel, 25, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 409 PA, 20 HR, 21 SB, .264/.364/.422

A favorite of mine to earn an extended look at some point this season, Capel has already outlasted JJ Bleday this spring. Capel is performing well following a successful 2022 split between St. Louis and Oakland. There’s every chance Capel is the best outfielder in camp at this moment. He’s been inconsistent throughout his minor league assent, at times showing discipline or over-aggression, a feel for contact or a hefty whiff rate, and a power- or speed-based profile. Given his long and winding journey, it’s hard to pin down exactly who he’ll become in the future. That he’s experimented with so many modes of play suggests he’s highly adaptable, a trait which does well to predict Major League success. While other franchises would view Capel as a capable backup, the Athletics should have starting opportunities available throughout the season.

Three More

Ji-Hwan Bae, PIT (23): In the mix for the Pirates starting second base job, Bae is off to a slow start this spring. So too is his competition. When Bae is on, he shows an above average eye with feel for contact. While he doesn’t produce much power, he should reach base enough to disrupt pitchers with his speed.

Jo Adell, LAA (23): Adell is expected to begin the season in Triple-A in deference to the Angels outfield veterans. That will trigger his final minor league option. It’s his last chance for regular playing time before playing waiver roulette. Adell can still put a charge in the ball, but it does seem like he would benefit from joining a non-contender willing to set him loose without restriction. His spring stats to date don’t suggest he’ll upset Taylor Ward or Hunter Renfroe for playing time.

Yainer Diaz, HOU (24): An aggressive free-swinger with thump, Diaz draws half-hearted comps to Salvador Perez. In the minors, he’s shown a capacity for making high-quality contact despite an expansive approach. He appears to be susceptible to breaking balls. Diaz is making a bid to join the Astros as their backup catcher – one who could offer more thump than defense-first Martin Maldonado.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

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Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?

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The AL West, despite being home to the reigning World Series champions, figures to be among the more competitive divisions in the sport in 2023. According to the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs, it is the only division with four teams that have a better than 10% chance to win the division title in the coming campaign. All five clubs in the division have seen significant changes to their rosters over the course of the offseason. With Spring Training now in full swing and the heavy-lifting of the offseason largely done at this point, it let’s take a look at the AL West’s five clubs in search of the division’s next champion.

Houston Astros (106-56 in 2022)

En route to their 2022 World Series championship, the Astros had a phenomenal season, with AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander leading the pitching staff while each of Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman received MVP votes for their work in the starting lineup. The hitting corps didn’t change very drastically during the offseason, though they did upgrade at first base by replacing departing free agent Yuli Gurriel with longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu. The pitching staff saw more significant change, as Verlander departed for New York while Houston was unable to sign a proper replacement for their staff ace over the offseason.

While Houston lost Verlander to free agency this offseason, the rotation still figures to have plenty of capable arms, with Framber Valdez set to take over as the new staff ace while youngster Cristian Javier looks to follow up on a breakout campaign in 2022. Both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have tantalizing upside, though each comes with question marks, and Jose Urquidy can be expected to be a reliable back-end starter for the Astros once again as well. One catalyst for Houston’s rotation could be top prospect Hunter Brown. Brown, who will play this season at age 24, dominated in his big league debut at the end of last season, posting a microscopic 0.89 ERA that was backed by a fantastic 1.98 FIP in 20 1/3 innings of work, though only 12 of those innings came as a starter. The young righty seems to be in prime position to make the Opening Day rotation with McCullers expected to start the season on the shelf.

Seattle Mariners (90-72 in 2022)

The Mariners ended the league’s longest playoff drought last season, earning a wild card berth and advancing to the ALDS before falling to Houston in a 3 game sweep. Seattle looks to improve on that performance in 2023, as the club added Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock to the lineup this offseason and expects to get a full season from ace Luis Castillo, who was acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline last year. That said, the club did lose some key players over the offseason as well: Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier departed via free agency while Erik Swanson, Kyle Lewis, Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro were among the players who departed in the club’s various trades this offseason.

Minimal prospect talent is expected to impact the big league club this season in Seattle, leaving the Mariners to rely on their aforementioned external additions and improvements from their returning players if they are to catch the Astros in the standings. Former top prospect Jarred Kelenic should get some run in left field to open the season in order to prove he has returned to form after struggling to this point in his big league career, while Robbie Ray will surely be looking to recapture the magic of his 2021 Cy Young season. Meanwhile, other players such as youngsters Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby as well as breakout catcher Cal Raleigh merely need to repeat their strong 2022 campaigns in order to contribute to a winning Mariners club this season.

Los Angeles Angels (73-89 in 2022)

The 2023 season stands as the last one during which the Angels will have two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani under club control, as he is set to hit free agency following the coming campaign. Given the urgency of the club’s situation, it’s no wonder than GM Perry Minasian was aggressive in his attempts to supplement the roster with quality depth. He appears to have been largely successful in that endeavor, having added Tyler Anderson, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez to the pitching staff while supplementing the lineup with Gio Urshela, Brandon Drury, and Hunter Renfroe. Those pitching deals rebuilt the back of a Halos bullpen that lost Raisel Iglesias in trade to the Braves last offseason while supplementing the rotation with a durable, mid-rotation starter. That being said, the offensive additions were the main attraction of Anaheim’s offseason, as they transformed what has for years amounted to something of a stars and scrubs lineup by providing manager Phil Nevin with the quality depth necessary to weather injuries to the club’s many stars.

Those stars, of course, will remain the focus of the club, as Ohtani and Mike Trout stand as perhaps the two best players in the entire sport while Anthony Rendon will look to live up to his $245MM contract after struggling with injuries in recent years. Still, other players emerged as quality regulars in 2022 as well, including Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo. Bounce-back seasons from any of Max Stassi, Jared Walsh, or David Fletcher would improve the club’s depth even more, to say nothing of the possibility that longtime top prospect Jo Adell finally lives up to his potential. Overall, there’s certainly reason to think this might finally be the year that Trout and Ohtani suit up together in the postseason, even though the club enters the season looking up at many of its division rivals in terms of playoff odds.

Texas Rangers (68-94 in 2022)

The Rangers had a second consecutive explosive offseason this winter as they completely transformed their big league rotation by adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi as starting options while retaining Martin Perez. The hitting corps stayed largely the same after Corey Seager and Marcus Semien joined the club last offseason, though Texas did add Robbie Grossman to their outfield mix and expects to get contributions from top prospect Josh Jung this year at third base.

With a solid bullpen that features Brock Burke, Jose LeClerc, and new addition Will Smith among its back-end options, the Rangers figure to be set up well in that regard. The lineup should be decent, if not awe-inspiring, as it Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia in addition to Seager and Semien, while Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim form an interesting duo behind the plate and Leody Taveras figures to contribute in center upon his return from an oblique strain later this year. The answer to just how far this Rangers club will be able to go surely lies in the health and production of the reconstructed rotation, which added the most dominant pitcher in baseball in deGrom and plenty of upside in Heaney and Eovaldi, though all three pitchers have struggled badly with injuries at various points throughout their careers. Should that front three remain healthy and effective, though, this Rangers team could certainly pitch its way into the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Oakland Athletics (60-102 in 2022)

The A’s were among the worst teams in baseball last season, and there’s little reason for fans in Oakland to have more optimism about the coming campaign. After sending Frankie Montas to the Yankees at the trade deadline last year, the A’s saw the departures of catcher Sean Murphy, starter Cole Irvin, and reliever A.J. Puk in trades this offseason while the club added young, unproven talent such as Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Kyle Muller, and Freddy Tarnok. Some quality players do remain on the roster, however, as the A’s have retained each of Ramon Laureano, Shea Langeliers, Paul Blackburn, Tony Kemp, and Seth Brown to this point.

Oakland also added a few veteran options in free agency during the offseason, picking up Jace Peterson, Aledmys Diaz, Jesus Aguiler, and Trevor May throughout the offseason. The highlight of the A’s offseason seems to be Shintaro Fujinami, who was posted to the MLB this offseason by the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers. Fujinami has tantalizing stuff, including a fastball that can touch over 100 mph, but has struggled with his control throughout his career. Even if the A’s are able to unlock Fujinami’s potential, however, it seems extremely unlikely that the club will be able to compete with the four clubs its looking up at in the AL West.

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While the Astros, as the reigning champions of not only the AL West but MLB itself, appear to be the favorite entering the 2023 season, each of the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers have plausible paths to not only contention but, perhaps, even the AL West crown headed into 2023. Though the same can’t be said for the Athletics, a four-team division race is sure to bring about excitement in the division all throughout the year.

What do you think? Will the Astros recapture the AL West crown for the sixth straight full season? Will the Mariners take another step forward and win their first AL West title since 2001? Will the Angels or Rangers leapfrog their competitors after a big offseason? Or will the Athletics surprise the baseball world against all odds? Let us know in the poll below.

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