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The Astros’ Inexperienced Rotation Depth

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An elite rotation has been one of the key features of the Astros’ run of success in recent years. Justin Verlander headlined the staff for the past four-plus seasons while the club saw the likes of Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy step up as player development success stories.

Even after Verlander’s departure, Houston has one of the stronger top-of-the-rotation groups in the sport. Valdez is a borderline Cy Young contender. Javier misses bats at an elite rate and just secured a $64MM contract extension. Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have each shown #2/3 starter capabilities in recent years. Urquidy isn’t as high-octane but he’s a perfectly solid back-end starter with excellent control. Just behind that group is Hunter Brown, arguably one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects who allowed only two runs in his first 20 2/3 MLB innings late last season.

It’s a group with immense upside, although the injury bug has already hit before Opening Day. McCullers won’t be ready for the start of the season thanks to a muscle strain in his throwing arm and, as of yesterday, had still not been cleared to begin playing catch (relayed by Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Even if there doesn’t prove to be a long-term concern, the Astros will surely be without McCullers for a little while in the early going. That, in itself, might not be a huge issue considering Brown can step into the vacated rotation spot. Yet one more injury could start to test Houston’s depth, forcing them to tap into a group of mostly unproven hurlers from the upper minors. Let’s look through some of the depth options whom manager Dusty Baker could need to rely upon if anyone else from his top five goes down.

J.P. France

Despite turning 28 within a week of Opening Day, France has zero MLB experience. The club thought highly enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster in November to ensure they didn’t lose him in the Rule 5 draft, however. The 6’0″ righty started 15 of 34 outings with Triple-A Sugar Land last season, working to a 3.90 ERA with a strong 28.3% strikeout percentage but a concerning 10.6% walk rate in 110 2/3 innings. Baseball America slotted him as the organization’s #21 prospect this winter, praising his deceptive delivery and a five-pitch mix of mostly average stuff but raising questions about the consistency of his strike-throwing.

Forrest Whitley

Once regarded by many as the sport’s most talented pitching prospect, Whitley has seen his stock plummet since he reached Double-A as a 20-year-old five seasons back. He’s now 25 and still hasn’t gotten to the big leagues, though the Astros have kept him on the 40-man roster over the past two seasons. He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2021 and lost a good chunk of the last couple years rehabbing. Whitley returned for ten outings in Sugar Land, serving up a 7.09 ERA while walking almost 16% of opposing hitters in 33 innings.

It’s not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with their control in their immediate returns after a Tommy John rehab, but the clock is ticking for Whitley to establish any kind of role on the Houston staff. He currently has one minor league option year remaining. While the Astros could perhaps petition for a fourth option next offseason in light of Whitley’s injury and a 2018 suspension for a violation of the minor league drug of abuse policy, it’s worth wondering whether they’d hold him on the 40-man roster for another winter if he doesn’t at least take a step forward in Triple-A. Baseball America now considers him the #28 prospect in the Houston system.

Shawn Dubin

Added to the 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason, Durbin spent all of last year on optional assignment to Sugar Land. He lost some time to a forearm strain and worked in a hybrid role when he took the mound, starting only 12 of 23 outings. Over 58 1/3 frames, he posted a 4.78 ERA with an excellent 32.1% strikeout rate but an untenable 12.9% walk rate. Barring a major step forward with his control, he’d figure to be more of a bullpen option for the big league club. BA slotted him 25th in the organizational prospect list, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever.

Brandon Bielak

Unlike the three pitchers above him on this list, Bielak has some MLB experience. He’s appeared in 45 games over the past three seasons but started just eight, none of which came last year. Soon to be 27, the 6’2″ righty has a 5.15 ERA over 94 1/3 career big league frames. He continued to work mostly as a starter in Triple-A, opening 14 of his 23 appearances last year. In 88 2/3 innings there, he put up a strong 3.15 ERA but with more middling strikeout and walk numbers (22.2% and 11.1%, respectively). Bielak has held a 40-man roster spot since the summer of 2020 and has one option year remaining.

Bryan Garcia

Signed to a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invitation, Garcia had been a reliever for his entire career until the second half of last season. The Tigers stretched him out as a starter in Triple-A in the middle of July. Garcia made 11 starts for their top affiliate in Toledo and took the ball four times at the big league level. While he only allowed eight runs in 20 1/3 MLB innings, he had a pedestrian 17:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Detroit cut him loose at season’s end, sending him to minor league free agency after he went unclaimed on waivers.

Misael Tamarez/Jaime Melendez/Jayden Murray

Each of this group logged some upper minors work last season, mostly in Double-A. They’ve all garnered fairly recent consideration in the back half of the Astros’ top 30 organizational prospects but none is seen as an obvious rotation piece for 2023. Any of the trio could pitch their way into consideration at some point but they all figure to begin the year in the minors, particularly since none has yet claimed a spot on the 40-man roster.

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It isn’t a group of depth starters with much big league experience. While that might not be a pressing concern out of the gate, it’s virtually unheard of for a club to navigate a 162-game schedule reliant upon only five or six starters. Between McCullers’ injury and perhaps a desire to keep an eye on Brown’s workload — he threw 126 1/3 innings last season between Triple-A and the big leagues — it stands to reason the front office could still look into an addition or two.

Players like Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda remain unsigned and look like minor league deal candidates at this stage of the offseason. Bringing in someone from that group or scouring the waiver wire for help would make sense for first-year general manager Dana Brown, who has spoken a few times about his desire to stockpile as much rotation depth as possible. The Astros have enough impact talent at the top of the staff they don’t need any splashy acquisitions but there’s plenty of room to augment the group in the upper minors with a veteran.

The Cubs-Dodgers Outfield Swap Puts Them In Different Positions

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The Cubs and Dodgers didn’t make a trade this offseason, but a series of transactions effectively added up to one. Here’s what I mean.

  • August of 2022: Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announces they will release Jason Heyward at the end of the season.
  • November of 2022: Heyward officially released.
  • November of 2022: Cody Bellinger is non-tendered by the Dodgers.
  • December of 2022: Cubs sign Bellinger to one-year deal.
  • December of 2022: Dodgers sign Heyward to a minor league deal.

Both clubs had a long-tenured outfielder that was posting disappointing results. In both cases, they could have kept the player for one more year. Heyward still had one season left on his contract while Bellinger still had one arbitration season remaining. But in both cases, the club decided to cut bait, then swooped in to collect the other team’s castoff.

Now each club is going to be trying to coax a bounceback season from their respective new outfielder. In a vacuum, the Cubs are more likely to succeed. Bellinger has struggled over the past two years, producing a dismal .165/.240/.302 batting line in 2021 and then a subpar .210/.265/.389 slash last year. However, he was above average in 2020 and was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019. He launched 47 home runs in that MVP season while hitting .305/.406/.629 for a wRC+ of 161. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his defensive work, being deemed to be worth 7.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Heyward, on the other hand, has never really touched that kind of ceiling, and certainly not recently. He had a strong showing at the plate in 2020 but hasn’t been an above average hitter in a full season since 2015. He hit .293/.359/.439 for the Cardinals that year, leading to a 121 wRC+. He also stole 23 bases and was strong in the field, leading to a 5.6 fWAR tally. However, he’s been well below that type of production since then, including being below replacement level last year.

Bellinger was himself below replacement level in 2021, but that was at least partly caused by shoulder issues. Both players have struggled in recent years but Bellinger was an MVP not too long ago. Heyward has never been on that tier and hasn’t been close in almost a decade. Bellinger also plays the more premier position, as he figures to be the Cubs’ everyday center fielder. Heyward has played center on occasion but has primarily been a right fielder in his career. Given that Bellinger is only 27 years old and Heyward is 33, the likelihood of a return to form would seem to be stronger with Bellinger.

The Cubs seem to have backed the horse more likely to end up in the winner’s circle, but they also have way more on the line. Heyward still had $22MM left on his deal when he was released and the Cubs are still on the hook for that. Assuming he is eventually added to the Dodgers’ roster, they will only be responsible for paying him the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay.

Bellinger, on the other hand, isn’t owed anything by the Dodgers since they didn’t tender him a contract for this year. The Cubs brought him aboard by guaranteeing him $17.5MM, in the form of a $12.5MM salary and $5MM buyout on a mutual option for 2024. That means that the Cubs are paying the salaries of both players, with the figures combining to be worth almost $40MM. The Dodgers aren’t really committed to either player right now and won’t even be paying meaningful money if Heyward does make the team.

Heyward’s chances of cracking the roster seem to have increased lately. With Gavin Lux potentially out for the entire season, it seems that Chris Taylor will be spending more time on the infield and less in the outfield. That subtracts from the club’s outfield depth a bit, perhaps increasing the need for a non-roster invitee like Heyward.

There’s also a bit of positive buzz around Heyward in spring so far. Last month, Freddie Freeman told reporters, including Alden González of ESPN, that Heyward had altered his stance and “might have unlocked something.” Heyward has four hits in ten at-bats so far this spring, including a pair of home runs. A few good spring games don’t mean much and it’s dangerous to draw meaningful conclusions from them, but it’s nonetheless encouraging, especially given the club’s penchant for helping journeymen find the best versions of themselves. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Heyward is impressing L.A. officials and expected to make the team.

Again, this isn’t to get carried away. The season hasn’t even begun and a few good spring games shouldn’t make us forget about Heyward’s past six full seasons. It’s entirely possible that he continues to disappoint and this hot spring eventually becomes a footnote. But the Dodgers have little to lose in that case. It might be a bit embarrassing if Bellinger returns to form after they let him go for nothing. But at least they saved his salary, which was projected to be $18.1MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They were then able to redirect that money into players like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez, who will cost $23MM combined this year.

The Cubs are perhaps facing a much more cringeworthy worst-case scenario. There is some non-zero chance that they have to watch Heyward thrive in Los Angeles while Bellinger struggles in Chicago, as they pay the salaries of both players. Time will tell whether that scenario is likely or not, but the Cubs have almost forty million reasons to hope it doesn’t come true.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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After five straight dismal seasons, the Orioles finally showed signs of life in 2022. Their farm system truly started producing for the big league club and they won 83 games, their best tally since 2016. That led to hopes of an aggressive winter, with general manager Mike Elias fanning those flames as the offseason was ramping up. But in the end, the club avoided big splashes and stuck to a few modest moves. The future is still bright in Baltimore as the organization is loaded with young talent, but a true pedal-to-the-metal move hasn’t materialized yet.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $23MM
Total spending: $23MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” general manager Mike Elias said in August. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively. We plan to maybe make some buy trades for some guys that are either on contracts or kind of in the tail-end of their arbitration.”

“The success…has only cemented those plans.  I’m really looking forward to the offseason and kind of a winter meetings environment where we’re buying.  I think it’s going to be a lot of fun for our group and for the organization.”

Here’s another Elias comment from August, relayed by Dan Connolly of The Athletic: “I think it’s liftoff from here for this team.”

Those comments surely led to a wide spectrum of interpretations and expectations among the club’s fanbase. Some might have been on the more skeptical side, while others might have been dreaming of a big splash such as one of the top shortstops or an elite starter. The club reportedly did sniff around the “Big Four” shortstops but never really seemed to be close to getting anything done there. They were also connected to starters like Carlos Rodón and Jameson Taillon and others. But again, they never really seemed to close to winning those bids and those players ultimately signed elsewhere.

The club did make a couple of moves for their rotation, but nothing approaching the level of a Rodón or a Taillon. They turned down an $11MM option over veteran Jordan Lyles, opting instead for the $1MM buyout. A few weeks later, they redirected the $10MM they saved to another veteran innings eater in Kyle Gibson. On the surface, that actually seems like something of a downgrade, as Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA last year to Gibson’s 5.05. One could dig deeper and find that Gibson had better peripherals and a lower FIP, and this will perhaps turn into a savvy swap. But in the grand scheme of things, we’re talking about a move that is essentially net neutral.

The other new addition to the rotation is Cole Irvin, acquired from the A’s with each team getting a new prospect in the deal as well. Irvin is somewhat similar to Gibson in that he’s expected to be a competent but not elite member of the rotation. He made 62 starts for the A’s over the past two years with a 4.11 ERA, but will be moving from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum to the AL East. Oriole Park is a bit kinder to pitchers since they moved the left field fence back last year, but Irvin will still have to take the mound in the less-friendly stadiums around the division while facing some strong lineups. He has done well over the past couple of seasons and is cheap since he’s yet to reach arbitration, but there’s some risk here.

There were also some modest additions made to the position player mix. Adam Frazier was brought aboard with a one-year deal to essentially replace Rougned Odor as the veteran second baseman. He’s coming off a down year at the plate but is generally graded well with the glove. His bat has oscillated hot and cold over the years, and he’ll be a nice piece if he can have one of those good seasons. If one of the Orioles’ many infield prospect eventually pushes for a larger share of the second base reps, Frazier has plenty of experience in left field, too.

The club also bought low by acquiring James McCann from the Mets, as he’s coming off two straight disappointing seasons. He still has two years remaining on his four-year, $40.6MM deal, but the Mets are paying down most of it. The O’s will only be responsible for paying $5MM total over those two years. With Adley Rutschman firmly cemented as the backstop for years to come, the O’s only need McCann to be a serviceable backup. If his bat rebounds to where it was in 2019 and 2020, that would be a nice bonus, but they’re not relying on it. Notably, McCann has a strong track record against lefties (despite a poor showing in 2022), and the switch-hitting Rutschman was far better as a left-handed hitter than as a right-handed hitter during his debut season. The O’s aren’t going to immediately relegate Rutschman to platoon status, but McCann still gives them some nice balance in their catching duo.

And what else? Mychal Givens got $5MM to bring an established veteran presence to the bullpen. The depth was fortified by waiver claims on players like Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Díaz, twice in the latter case. Both players were eventually outrighted to serve as non-roster depth alongside minor league signees like Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero. That’s about it.

As mentioned earlier, fans likely had varying ideas of what to expect this winter with those comments from Elias, but it’s hard to really feel like this is what he had in mind. The club’s current payroll is effectively stagnant relative to the end of last year, with Roster Resource putting a $63MM figure on both tallies. That places them 29th in the league, with only the A’s behind them. After saying he would “significantly” escalate the payroll, it’s hard to characterize that as anything but a disappointment. Was it “a lot of fun,” as Elias predicted, to swap Lyles for Gibson and then add Irvin, McCann, Frazier and Givens?

The disparity between the promise and the delivery might be chalked up to the changes in the offseason environment. Most of the marquee free agents beat the industry projections, often by wide margins. Xander Bogaerts, for instance, got around $100MM more than most expected. Even mid-rotation starters like Taillon and Taijuan Walker did much better than their projections. Perhaps Elias expected to come away with more here and was simply priced out. There would be little sense in raising hopes if he had no intention in coming through.

Regardless of how or why it happened, the O’s are going into 2023 with a fairly similar roster to last year, which isn’t really a bad thing. The club’s farm system truly started to bear fruit at the big league level last year, with prospects like Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers and others debuting and showing strong potential. There’s even more coming through the pipeline with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the best pitching prospects in the league, potentially jumping right into the Opening Day rotation here in 2023.

Those should be fixtures on the big league team this year and for years to come, alongside other incumbents like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and others. The pitching seems a little less exciting, with Gibson and Irvin joined by some other hurlers that are still trying to cement themselves as viable big leaguers, such as Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and Tyler Wells.

Despite all those prospects jumping up to the big leagues, the system still has more. After Rodriguez, the club also has highly-regarded prospects like DL Hall, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Jackson Holliday. Aside from Holliday, those guys will all be in the upper levels of the minors and could join the team this year depending on how the year progresses.

Overall, the club is still in great shape for the future, as they are loaded with young and controllable talent. The lack of recent spending means that there’s close to nothing on the books going forward. But it was hoped by many that the young core would be supplemented by aggressive moves to add established veterans. Elias asserted that was the plan and did bring in some complementary pieces, but not really at the level he seemed to imply.

Leaving aside the players for a moment, another key storyline for the Orioles this winter was the apparent turmoil within the Angelos family. Peter Angelos has owned the team for decades but has been suffering poor health since he collapsed in 2017. It seems that his wife Georgia and their two sons, John and Louis, have been in disagreement about how to proceed with the franchise. It was reported in June of last year that John had been approved by MLB as Baltimore’s “control person” but with Louis suing his brother over those developments and others. Georgia then filed a countersuit against Louis, alleging he fabricated claims in his own attempt to seize power. Despite that seemingly ugly battle, an agreement was reached in February whereby all parties agreed to drop their lawsuits.

Amid all those lawsuits were accusations about a potential sale of the club, with John and Georgia both accused of trying to explore the possibility at times. Alongside this, the club declined a five-year lease extension at Camden Yards in February. That creates some uncertainty about the club’s future in Baltimore, but it seems that this is merely a temporary issue. The club is hoping to get a new deal in place that’s 10-15 years in length so that the Maryland Stadium Authority can qualify for a $600MM loan for stadium upgrades. John Angelos has been adamant that the club is not looking to relocate, nor are they seriously pursuing a sale. He’s also said they would like to get into the top half of the league in terms of spending at some point.

That provides some hope for the future, but that didn’t come to fruition this winter. As mentioned, the club’s payroll is higher than last year but still just 29th among the 30 clubs in the league. Despite a winter devoid of splashy moves, the on-field product is still in decent shape. They won 83 games last year and still have plenty of prospects on the rise. However, young players don’t always progress in a linear fashion, and this particular group will be trying to compete in what is arguably the strongest division in the league. There’s light over the horizon, but it’s still not clear how close the new dawn really is.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Orioles’ offseason review, we held an Orioles-focused chat on March 7. You can click here to read the transcript.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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In conjunction with this review, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk will be holding a Nationals-centric live chat later today to further discuss the team’s offseason.  Click here to submit questions in advance.

With a focus on inexpensive, short-term veteran contracts this offseason, the Nationals are still aiming for the future as the team continues its rebuild.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: approximately $16.25MM
Total spending: approximately $23.25MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Victor Robles, OF: One year, $2.325MM (Nationals hold $3.3MM club option for 2024; if option is declined, Nats still hold arbitration control over Robles for 2024)

Notable Losses

Ted Lerner, the Nationals’ first official owner after its move to Washington, passed away in February at age 97.  Though Mark Lerner (Ted’s son) has been in control of the franchise since 2018, the sad news of the Lerner family patriarch’s passing seemed to represent something of a symbolic end of an era for the Nationals as ownership questions continue to circle the organization.  It has been almost a year since the Lerner family started to explore the possibility of selling the ballclub, yet even though Ted Leonsis had seemingly emerged as the favorite, it remains to be seen if Leonsis or anyone will up finalizing a deal due to the still-unsettled dispute between the Nationals and Orioles over MASN broadcast rights.

The uncertainty at the ownership level is matched in the front office and in the dugout, since president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are only under contract through the 2023 season.  And, as the Nationals enter the second full season of an all-out rebuild, it remains to seen if any of the club’s current young talents will break out and be part of the proverbial “next contending Nats team.”

To this end, Washington will give CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, and Keibert Ruiz full runs as everyday players this season.  Lane Thomas, Alex Call, and Victor Robles are a bit older than those youngsters and Call was a rookie himself in 2022, but the three outfielders will get another opportunity to be lineup regulars.  (For Robles, this may be something of a last chance after three underwhelming years at the plate, though Robles had an excellent defensive season in 2022.)  The 30-year-old Joey Meneses is the relative greybeard of the group, and yet the Nationals will certainly give Meneses lots of playing time as the team evaluates just exactly what they have in a player coming off an unexpectedly dominant rookie season.

Meneses will be moved around the lineup as a first baseman, DH, and corner outfielder in 2023, and with Meneses providing pop with his right-handed bat, Washington brought a couple of lefty swingers to town as complements.  Corey Dickerson and Dominic Smith also figure to get their share of DH at-bats, with Dickerson also seeing time as a left fielder and Smith likely to play first base, though Smith also has a good deal of experience in left field.

Dickerson has a below-average 97 wRC+ over the last three seasons, hitting .266/.313/.403 in 872 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season.  Beyond just the league-wide interruptions caused by the pandemic and the lockout in that time period, Dickerson also had to deal with injuries and some personal tragedy, so the veteran is certainly hoping to focus solely on baseball as he enters his age-34 season.  Washington is likely to use Dickerson almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, given how his numbers and playing time against southpaws have diminished in recent years.

In Smith, the Nationals hope they’ve found a bounce-back candidate who might be particularly motivated to produce for another NL East team.  Smith’s decade in the Mets organization was marked by a lot of tumult, as he faced trade rumors, questions about his conditioning, reduced playing time, defensive struggles as a left fielder (a position change forced by Pete Alonso’s emergence as the Mets’ next star first baseman), and finally a non-tender last November.

Still, Smith also delivered some production at the MLB level, with an impressive .299/.366/.571 slash line over 396 PA during the 2019-20 seasons.  Away from the New York drama and into regular playing time with a rebuilding team out of the spotlight, perhaps Smith can rebound with a change of scenery.  D.C. isn’t the only team that shares this belief, as the Royals, Rays, Cubs, and Padres all reportedly had some level of interest before he finally signed with Washington.

Ex-star prospects like Smith were a target area for Rizzo this winter, as the Nationals also added such former top-100 names as Michael Chavis, Franklin Barreto, and Anthony Banda on minor league contracts, while Jeter Downs was claimed off waivers from the Red Sox.  Getting a late-bloomer breakout from any of these players would count as a big win for the Nats’ rebuild, and there’s no real risk involved for Washington in taking a look at these players for minimal acquisition costs.

Jeimer Candelario is perhaps the only one of the Nationals’ veteran signings who is somewhat blocking one of the District’s young talents, yet Carter Kieboom is just starting to work as a DH in Spring Training as he continues to recover from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his entire 2022 season.  With Kieboom’s ability to play third base up in the air, the Nationals moved quickly to sign Candelario soon after he entered the open market in November.

Candelario is another player with some very recent success under his belt, as he hit .278/.356/.458 (125 wRC+) over 832 PA in 2020-21. He led the majors with 42 doubles in 2021.  However, both his slash numbers and most of his Statcast metrics fell off a cliff last season, as Candelario hit only .217/.272/.361 with 13 homers in 467 PA.  Projected for a $7MM salary in his final arbitration year, Candelario was instead non-tendered by a Detroit team looking for a fresh start under new president of baseball ops Scott Harris.

While the Nats certainly needed help all over the diamond, their lineup wasn’t as big of a problem as their rotation in 2022, yet the starting five is another area where the Nationals are counting on the youngsters.  Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, and MacKenzie Gore are all penciled in for regular turns in the rotation if healthy, with the Nationals hoping for some breakouts while being prepared to absorb more early-career growing pains from the trio.

Amidst the District’s spate of one-year contracts, Trevor Williams’ two-year, $13MM deal marked the only multi-year commitment of the offseason.  The right-hander has posted some respectable numbers as both a starter and reliever over his seven Major League seasons, primarily working as a swingman over the last two years with the Mets.  This flexibility could allow the Nats to eventually shift Williams to the bullpen if other rotation options solidify themselves, but he’ll work as a starter to begin the 2023 campaign.

Seth Lugo and Jordan Lyles were two other pitchers linked to the Nationals on the offseason rumor mill, and the team also brought back a familiar face in Erasmo Ramirez. but their other forays into the starting market resulted in minor league deals.  Wily Peralta and Chad Kuhl provide further rotation depth or possible swingman usage, depending on what the Nationals get out of the three youngsters, Williams, and the struggling Patrick Corbin, who is looking to recover from three consecutive mediocre seasons.

Unfortunately for Stephen Strasburg, he recently suffered a setback in his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, and he remains a wild card in the Nats’ plans since it isn’t certain when (or even if) he’ll be able to pitch again.  With only 31 1/3 innings on Strasburg’s record since the start of the 2020 season, it would count as progress just to get the former All-Star back onto the mound at any point this year.

Erasmo Ramirez is another pitcher with swingman ability, though Washington used him almost exclusively as a reliever in 2022 (with two “starts” that were essentially opener outings).  After signing a minor league deal last winter, Ramirez ended up as a nice bargain for the Nationals, as he delivered a 2.92 ERA and an elite 4.0% walk rate over 86 1/3 innings.  That performance earned him a guaranteed $1MM big league contract to return to D.C., and Ramirez is likely to again be deployed in a long relief role.

Ramirez joins another familiar face in Sean Doolittle, who also re-signed with the Nats on a minor league deal as he continues to work his way back from an internal brace procedure in his left elbow.  For a team that usually has something of a revolving door in the bullpen, Washington was relatively quiet on the relief pitching front this offseason, though Thad Ward (the first overall pick of the Rule 5 draft) and minor league signee Alex Colome represent some interesting additions.

Colome has been solid to excellent for most of his decade in the big leagues, apart from a rough 5.74 ERA over 47 innings with the Rockies last season.  A 4.46 SIERA and a .333 BABIP provide some indication that Colome was at least a little unlucky, and a high BABIP is particularly harmful to a pitcher with a hefty 55.6% grounder rate.  While Colome’s home/away splits were pretty equally mediocre last season, getting out of Coors Field might provide some help for the 34-year-old.

As per usual for any rebuilding team, any of these short-term new arrivals might find themselves on other rosters by the trade deadline.  Williams and Smith (via contract and arbitration) are both controlled through 2024, yet that might not be a big impediment if they’re playing well enough for another team to make a tempting trade offer.

If Washington’s plan for the trade deadline seems pretty set, the organization can only hope that it will have more clarity on the whole by the summer — whether that translates to the futures of Rizzo and Martinez, progress on a possible sale to a new owner, or just some simple on-field progress in the rebuild.  Given both the holes on the roster and the overall strength of the NL East, the Nationals will be hard-pressed to improve much on their 55-107 record from a year ago, and even avoiding a 100-loss campaign might count as a minor victory.

How would you grade the Nationals’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

The Guardians’ Former Rule 5 Breakout Reliever

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The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).

Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.

That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.

That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.

There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.

While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.

The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.

Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.

Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Reds’ Numerous Outfield Possibilities

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The Reds go into the 2023 campaign looking at another evaluation year. Cincinnati is coming off a 100-loss season and didn’t make many immediate upgrades over the winter. It’ll be a non-competitive season, one that sees a number of unproven players look to carve out longer-term roles.

No area of the roster is more wide open than the outfield. Cincinnati has eight outfielders on their 40-man roster. Of that group, only offseason signee Wil Myers has a lengthy big league track record. Myers had some ups and downs as a member of the Padres, showcasing strong power potential at times but undercutting it with lofty strikeout totals at others. Signed to a one-year, $7.5MM deal, he’ll surely receive regular playing time either in the corner outfield or at first base. The franchise will hope he’ll hit well enough to draw some attention from contenders at the trade deadline.

Everyone else in the Cincinnati outfield is hoping to earn a consistent spot in the lineup. It’s a similar group to that of the rebuilding Athletics — one that has a glut of upper level options but very little in the way of established big league production.

Jake Fraley, 27, two minor league options remaining

Fraley is probably the favorite for regular reps among the group of unproven players. Acquired from the Mariners in last spring’s Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker deal, Fraley put up an impressive .259/.344/.468 line with 12 home runs over his first 247 plate appearances as a Red. Most of that work came in the season’s second half, as he lost a good portion of the beginning of the year to right knee issues.

The lefty-swinging Fraley also posted solid offensive marks in a limited role in Seattle the previous year. He carries a .235/.348/.419 line with 21 homers and 16 doubles in 145 games over the past couple seasons. He doesn’t hit the ball especially hard but makes contact at a decent clip and has an extremely patient offensive approach. Fraley has limited experience in center and right field (rating poorly at both stops); he’s gotten solid reviews from public defensive metrics for his left field glovework.

Nick Senzel, 27, three options remaining

A former #2 overall pick, Senzel was a consensus top prospect before reaching the majors in 2019. He hasn’t met those expectations thus far, struggling to a .240/.303/.360 line in 1036 career plate appearances. A natural third baseman, Senzel moved primarily to center field at the MLB level and has gotten middling to well below-average reviews for his glove from various metrics.

Senzel has shown above-average contact skills at the big league level, though he hasn’t made much of a power impact. Despite his early-career struggles, the Reds have maintained throughout the offseason they plan to give him another crack at seizing the center field job. It feels like a make-or-break season, with Senzel now into his arbitration seasons and having performed below replacement level thus far.

The Reds are obviously still hopeful he can take a long-awaited step forward. He’ll first need to get healthy. Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe over the offseason. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote this afternoon that he’s begun swinging a bat in simulated games at the team’s spring complex. He has yet to progress to full speed running.

TJ Friedl, 27, two options remaining

Friedl has been one of the more interesting outfielders in the Cincinnati farm system for a few seasons. He got a brief big league look late in 2021 and received his first extended action last season. In 258 plate appearances across 72 games, he hit at a league average clip: .240/.314/.436 with eight home runs, a modest 7.8% walk percentage and a tiny 15.5% strikeout rate.

The left-handed hitter had more resounding success over a similar stretch of time for Triple-A Louisville. Friedl posted a .278/.371/.468 line with eight homers, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.9% strikeout percentage over 241 trips with the Bats. That mostly aligns with his longstanding prospect reputation. Friedl doesn’t have much power but he has a solid feel for the strike zone and puts the ball in play with regularity. He can play all three outfield positions, though advanced metrics weren’t enthused with his first MLB work on the grass. Friedl has typically been regarded by prospect evaluators as a high-probability fourth/fifth outfielder. The upcoming campaign could be his best opportunity to outperform that expectation.

Will Benson, 24, three options remaining

Benson, acquired from the Guardians last month, has a polar opposite approach from Friedl. He’s also a left-handed batter but boasts huge power upside with a long track record of lofty strikeout totals. A former first-round draftee whose prospect shine had dimmed, Benson put himself back on the map with arguably a career-best season last year.

In 89 games with Cleveland’s top minor league affiliate, he hit .278/.426/.522 with 17 home runs. Benson walked a massive 18.7% clip — par for the course throughout his career — and struck out in an average 22.7% of his trips. It was the first time he’d posted a strikeout rate below 28% at any stop and only his second season fanning in fewer than 30% of his PA’s. Benson didn’t produce in a 28-game MLB cameo and was still buried on Cleveland’s outfield depth chart, but his step forward intrigued the Reds enough to take a look. He’s best suited for right field and can cover center on occasion.

Nick Solak, 28, one option remaining

Another one-time top prospect, Solak has had some inconsistent performances the past few years with the Rangers. He had an excellent 33-game debut in 2019. Since the start of 2020, however, the righty-swinging Solak carries a modest .246/.317/.354 line in 839 MLB plate appearances. Longstanding concerns about his defense at second base eventually pushed him to left field, where he has gotten subpar grades from public statistics.

To his credit, Solak hasn’t allowed his MLB inconsistency to bleed into his performance in the minor leagues. Optioned to Triple-A by Texas last season, he put up an impressive .278/.371/.489 mark with 10 longballs, an 11.6% walk rate and a 19.7% strikeout percentage in 57 contests. The Rangers never seemed to trust him enough to give him an extended look despite woeful MLB production from their left fielders, though. Texas dealt him to Cincinnati for cash immediately after the season ended.

Michael Siani, 23, three options remaining

A former fourth-round pick, Siani has spent the past few seasons ranked among the middle tiers of the Cincinnati farm system. Praised for his speed and defensive acumen in center field, he went 49 for 61 as a basestealer over 121 Double-A games last year. His overall .252/.351/.404 line with 12 home runs at that level was solid if unexceptional for a 22-year-old. Siani earned cups of coffee in both Louisville and Cincinnati towards the end of the season.

It stands to reason Cincinnati will start Siani back in Triple-A given his lack of experience there. Baseball America ranked him the organization’s #19 prospect this winter, projecting him as a glove-first fourth outfielder.

Stuart Fairchild, 26, one option remaining

A former Cincinnati second-round pick, Fairchild was dealt to the Diamondbacks at the 2020 trade deadline. He made his MLB debut with Arizona the following season, getting into 12 games. The Wake Forest product bounced around via minor trade and waivers last year, playing in four different organizations. He finished the season back with his original club when the Reds nabbed him off waivers from the Giants in June.

Fairchild played in 38 games for Cincinnati, connecting on five home runs in 99 trips. He struck out 29 times while drawing only eight walks but showed intriguing power. That was also the case in Triple-A, where he combined for a .258/.353/.490 line in 53 contests despite the constant uniform changes. He’s capable of playing all three outfield positions.

Chad Pinder, 30, not on 40-man roster

Pinder, a longtime member of the Athletics, signed a non-roster pact with a major league Spring Training invitation this winter. He’s coming off a .235/.263/.385 showing in 111 games for Oakland. The right-handed hitting Pinder has some power and a decent track record of hitting lefty pitching. He’s versatile enough to cover anywhere on the infield in addition to his corner outfield work. Pinder seems to have a strong chance at securing a bench role given that flexibility and Cincinnati’s fairly left-handed outfield mix. As a major league free agent who signed a minor league contract, he’ll have an automatic opt-out opportunity five days before the start of the regular season if he’s not added to the MLB roster.

Overall

Aside from Pinder, former highly-regarded prospect Allan Cerda and KBO veteran Henry Ramos are also in camp on non-roster contracts. Neither looks to have a strong chance at cracking the Opening Day roster considering the number of alternative outfield options for the front office and coaching staff to evaluate.

Myers is the only member of the current group who can’t be sent to the minor leagues, although Pinder couldn’t be optioned if he cracks the MLB roster. That could set the stage for plenty of shuffling over the next six months. The organization is surely hoping two or three players from the group will cement themselves as everyday options based on their 2023 production, lending some clarity to the longer-term mix.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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In conjunction with this entry in our annual Offseason in Review series, MLBTR will be conducting a Rangers-centric chat today at 11am. You can submit a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live.

The Rangers didn’t replicate last year’s half-billion dollar spending bonanza, but they sure didn’t let up in terms of aggression during Chris Young’s first offseason as the lead decision-maker for baseball operations.

Major League Signings

2023 spend: $82.15MM
Total spend: $265.65MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • None (yet)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

For the first time in nearly 20 years, the Rangers’ offseason was overseen by a baseball operations leader other than Jon Daniels. Ownership dismissed Daniels, who’d been one of MLB’s longest-tenured general managers/presidents of baseball operations, after 17 years on the job. The reins were handed to former big league pitcher Chris Young, who’s spent the past few seasons under Daniels and now has autonomy for the first time in his still-fledgling executive career.

One of Young’s first tasks was to replace manager Chris Woodward, whom Daniels had fired just days prior to his own dismissal, and it proved to be one of the highest-profile acquisitions of the winter for the Rangers. After trending toward less-experienced managers with their last two hires — both Woodward and Jeff Banister were first-time big league skippers in Texas — the Rangers instead hired one of the most experienced and well-respected managers in the game.

Bruce Bochy announced prior to the 2019 season that he planned to retire the following winter, although a year later he’d describe the situation differently, suggesting he was just “pressing the pause button” on his career and taking some time with his family. Indeed, Bochy’s managerial days appear far from over; he’s now the manager in Texas after inking a three-year deal to guide the Rangers out of what looks to be a short-lived rebuilding effort.

With a new dugout leader and revamped coaching staff in place, Young, a veteran of 13 big league seasons on the mound, set to work in building out the roster. While the 2021-22 offseason was focused largely on acquiring bats in the form of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the 2022-23 offseason looked more like one engineered by a former big league hurler. Recent top picks like Owen White, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Cole Winn are looming, but the Rangers needed instant augmentation for a rotation that ranked 25th in the Majors in ERA during the 2022 season.

And, immediate augmentation they got. Young and his staff effectively acquired an entire rotation’s worth of veteran arms on deals ranging from one to five years in length, which should provide present-day stability while also creating organic opportunities for that burgeoning crop of minor league pitching talent to force its way onto the roster. First and foremost, the Rangers made a straightforward call to offer Martin Perez a $19.65MM qualifying offer after he posted a breakout 2.89 ERA in a team-high 196 1/3 frames. A year ago, a QO for Perez would’ve seemed unthinkable, but Perez earned it with his performance last season, and it’s a sensible short-term bet on a durable lefty who made clear he hoped to stay in Texas following last winter’s reunion.

That, however, only maintained the status quo. Further help was needed, and the Rangers wasted little time in securing it. A five-year, $185MM deal for two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom shattered even the most bullish expectations; there was thought that deGrom could top Max Scherzer’s record $43.33MM annual value on a three-year deal or perhaps even on a four-year deal, but few observers could’ve foreseen a five-year term. The length of the deal perhaps tamped down the AAV a bit, but deGrom’s $37MM AAV was the second-largest for any pitcher in history at the time of the deal and still ranks third, trailing only Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who ostensibly replaced deGrom in Queens when he signed a two-year, $86.6MM pact.

The Rangers are taking pronounced risk with deGrom, who’s pitched just 156 1/3 innings and made 26 total starts over the past two seasons. That’s understandably dropped an injury-prone label on the longtime Mets ace, but it’s worth noting that prior to 2021, deGrom embodied the workhorse mentality. He made all 12 possible starts during the shortened 2020 season and, from 2015-19, averaged 30 starts and 192 1/3 innings per season (not including postseason workload).

When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. He has a 2.05 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate over his past 645 1/3 MLB frames, and although his 2021-22 seasons were shortened he’s been even better in that time: 1.90 ERA with a ludicrous 44% strikeout rate against a 3.4% walk rate. The Rangers are placing a massive bet on deGrom’s ability to return to a full season’s workload, and the risk and contract are particularly shocking when considering that he’ll turn 35 in June. That said, deGrom is so talented that he might not even need to pitch a full slate of starts for the Rangers to feel good about the return on their investment.

The other rotation bets made by Texas were similar ceiling plays with substantial injury risk. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi looked primed for another four-year deal last June, when he was sporting a 3.16 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate and deGrom-esque 3.6% walk rate through 12 starts and 68 1/3 frames. Back troubles landed him on the injured list, however, and while he returned a month later, Eovaldi worked with diminished velocity before going back on the injured list with a shoulder issue. He returned to toss 9 2/3 innings of one-run ball late in the season, but again, the velocity was down considerably; Eovaldi averaged 96.7 mph on his heater through June 8 but 94.5 mph thereafter.

Nonetheless, Eovaldi’s appeal is clear. He’s the rare hard-thrower who pairs that velocity with elite command; since Opening Day 2020, Clayton Kershaw is the only starting pitcher (min. 150 total innings) with a lower walk rate than Eovaldi. From Opening Day 2020 through June 8 of this past season, Eovaldi boasted a 3.61 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate in 299 innings. He’s twice had Tommy John surgery in his career, however, and the aforementioned loss of more than two miles per hour off his heater following back and shoulder injuries is an obvious red flag. Can he regain that lost velo while maintaining his elite command and holding up for a full starter’s workload? Eovaldi has just three seasons of 150-plus innings in his MLB career, but the Rangers were bullish enough on his outlook to surrender a draft pick in order to sign him, as he’d rejected a qualifying offer from Boston. (Texas also surrendered a pick for deGrom; they parted with their second- and third-highest selections in 2023 by making those signings.)

Even higher on the risk-reward spectrum is left-hander Andrew Heaney, who was limited to 72 2/3 innings by shoulder troubles last year but transformed from a tantalizing but homer-prone blend of strikeout-walk intrigue into a legitimate buzzsaw when he was healthy with the Dodgers in 2022. The Dodgers scrapped Heaney’s curveball in favor of a new slider, and opponents were utterly bewildered by the offering.

Heaney fanned a massive 35.5% of opponents against a 6.1% walk rate en route to a 3.10 ERA. He remained homer-prone, but among the 188 pitchers with at least 70 innings thrown in 2022 (relievers and starters alike), no one induced a higher swinging-strike rate than Heaney’s 16.8%. His 39.5% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate trailed only Kevin Gausman (42.7%) and Emmanuel Clase (a superhuman 49.8%).

The Rangers’ new-look rotation is teeming both with upside and with injury risk. However, the risk factor with all these rotation investments wasn’t lost on Texas. The Rangers could surely have found a team interested in acquiring pre-arbitration righties Dane Dunning or Glenn Otto after each posted back-of-the-rotation results in 2022 (4.46 ERA in 153 1/3 innings for Dunning; 4.64 ERA in 135 2/3 innings for Otto). However, Young and his crew held onto both righties — and they also swung a trade to acquire veteran Jake Odorizzi from the Braves. Odorizzi exercised a hearty $12.5MM player option, but the Braves kicked in $10MM to facilitate the swap, leaving the Rangers on the hook for just $2.5MM. For a veteran who’ll likely open in a long relief/sixth starter role, it’s an eminently affordable price to pay (especially considering how solid Odorizzi was in 2022 prior to his trade to Atlanta).

It’s feasible that over the remaining month of spring training or the first few months of the season, other clubs will inquire on the availability of anyone from the Dunning/Otto/Odorizzi trio — especially as other injuries arise on teams with less depth than the Rangers possess. There’s no urgency for Texas to move any member of that trio, though, and the mere fact that an organization that was so pitching-starved in 2022 now has that type of depth is a testament both to the work of the front office and to the commitment of ownership to field a club capable of returning to postseason contention. The Rangers even went so far as to reportedly meet with Carlos Rodon after they’d already signed deGrom, but that match obviously never came to fruition.

Of course, the rotation is just one element of the roster, and it’d be fair to wonder whether the Texas front office put enough emphasis on the rest of the team. The Rangers allowed Matt Moore to depart for a division rival (Angels) after he turned in one of the most effective seasons of any reliever in MLB last year, and they’ve done nothing to concretely replace him. Recognizable names like Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Dominic Leone, Reyes Moronta and Zack Littell were signed to minor league deals, but none are guaranteed roster spots. Meanwhile, the Rangers are also expected to be without southpaw Brett Martin for most or all of the 2023 season, after he underwent shoulder surgery.

In their defense, the Rangers are hoping to get full seasons out of both Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez in 2023. Both righties missed substantial time in 2022 while mending from Tommy John surgery performed a year prior. That’s a huge boost to the relief corps, and last year’s quiet breakout from Brock Burke and strong showing from Joe Barlow give Bochy a quality group of arms in the late innings. Still, there was room for at least one more bullpen addition. Perhaps Young & Co. have one more strike up their sleeve and will swoop on a lefty like Zack Britton, Will Smith or Brad Hand — each of whom remains unsigned — but the lack of attention to the bullpen could come back to bite them.

Similar questions abound with regard to the lineup. Semien and Seager form a quality middle infield combo. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe had a breakout showing at the plate. Jonah Heim is an underrated option behind the dish. In the outfield, Adolis Garcia has a questionable approach at the plate but a tooled-up blend of power, speed and defense that’s tough to match. Leody Taveras didn’t hit much in 2022 but can play center field better than most.

Still, that only accounts for two-thirds of the lineup. Top prospect Josh Jung will get an opportunity at third base after shoulder surgery wiped out most of his 2022 season, but he’s yet to prove himself as a big league regular. There was clear room to add a regular in left field, but the Rangers added Robbie Grossman after spring training had opened and will rely on him combining with Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Bubba Thompson, Mark Mathias and perhaps some non-roster invitees (e.g. Clint Frazier, Travis Jankowski, Elier Hernandez) to round out the outfield. At designated hitter, the Rangers seem likely to rotate several members of that left field hodgepodge.

That said, Lowe’s glovework at first makes him a DH candidate, so Texas could’ve added at least one more first base/corner outfield type of bat to deepen the lineup. Given all the money spent on the rotation and all the risk they took on in that regard, it’s a bit puzzling that Texas essentially pulled some punches when addressing the lineup. A platoon with Grossman bashing lefties and one of the Rangers’ many lefty-swinging left field candidates could prove productive, but it’s an underwhelming conclusion to an offseason that featured so many fireworks on the starting pitching front. And, if Jung gets hurt again or looks overmatched at the hot corner, there’s little in the way of veteran depth to help offset the struggles. Miller is an option, but he’s a 33-year-old seeking a rebound on the heels of a poor 2022 showing.

Jung is a big-time prospect, and there are so many bodies in the left field/designated hitter mix that it’s possible this is all much ado about nothing a few months down the line. It’s equally plausible, however, that the Rangers find themselves in the market for some corner help to bolster the lineup this summer, and at that point, the lack of attention to the the lineup would only prove more glaring. This feels like an area where they should’ve placed some greater focus, but it’s admittedly tough to be all that critical of ownership’s spending after they invested $821MM over a period of just two offseasons.

Everyone in the AL West is looking up at the Astros. The Rangers, while improved, aren’t clearly better than the Mariners after Seattle ended a 20-year postseason drought in 2022. The Angels are an improved squad  as well. Even after all their spending dating back to last winter, a playoff berth is not a given for these Rangers.

It’s overwhelmingly clear, though, that this is the most formidable Rangers club we’ve seen in some time, and if they can improbably find themselves in a spot where deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney and Jon Gray hold up for the bulk of the season alongside the more durable Perez, the Rangers could find themselves in the thick of the postseason race. You can question the risks they took, but this a team that’s clearly aiming to contend right now, and the pieces to do just that are in place — if they can avoid the injured list.

How would you grade the Rangers’ offseason?

The Athletics’ Outfield Dilemma

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In late January, I took a look at some of the Athletics’ options in what’s a generally crowded mix of rotation possibilities. Calling it a true logjam or crunch might overstate things a bit, as those monikers are typically more appropriate when there are more established players than there are spots to go around. For the A’s, it was more a matter how they can divide up the innings among a wide variety of unproven names.

Similar questions persist in the outfield, where Oakland has one lock for playing time and otherwise a carousel of names who could rotate through the remaining spots. Ramon Laureano is a fixture in the outfield and will continue to be through much of the season’s first half, at least (health-permitting). Laureano can play all three spots but has been better in right field than in center recently. He’s coming off a disappointing .211/.287/.376 batting line in 2022, but from 2018-21 he slashed .263/.335/.465 while playing quality defense.

Were it not for injuries and an 80-game PED suspension derailing Laureano’s trajectory, he might already have been traded by now. The A’s have gutted the rest of the roster while embarking on their latest rebuild, but Laureano is one of the few remaining veterans. Trading him this offseason would’ve been selling low, but it’d only take a couple months of productive ball to restore some of the 2018-21 shine. With a good showing in April, May and June, expect Laureano to be among the more talked-about trade candidates on the summer market.

Because of that, he should be penciled in for full-time at-bats in the outfield. It seems likely that’ll come more in the corners than in center, but whatever form it takes, Laureano’s going to be out there every day.

As far as the rest of the outfield is concerned, things are far murkier. Let’s take a look at who’ll be vying for playing time…

On the 40-man roster

Cristian Pache, 24, RHH, no minor league options remaining

Pache’s lack of minor league options and lack of production in either Triple-A or the Majors make him the most confounding player of this group. He’s still just 24 years old, is considered to be an elite defender, and as recently as the 2020-21 offseason was considered to be among the 20 best prospects in all of baseball. Pache’s bat simply hasn’t developed, however, evidenced by a disastrous .156/.205/.254 batting line in 332 MLB plate appearances and an ugly .248/.298/.389 showing in Triple-A last season. Pache posted five Defensive Runs Saved and eight Outs Above Average in only 646 innings last year. He’s one of the best defensive players in the game but currently one of its worst hitters. The A’s can’t send him down without exposing him to waivers, and the glove alone would probably get Pache claimed. At the same time, it’s hard to keep trotting him out there with such an anemic batting line. Giving up on Pache as an everyday player and relegating him to a bench role is also unpalatable, though, given his youth and the fact that he was one of the key pieces in the trade that sent Matt Olson to the Braves. The A’s have to hope Pache can somehow develop his offensive approach at the big league level, and if he can’t, he could eventually force them into a tough decision. A big spring could also position him as a trade candidate; manager Mark Kotsay candidly admitted last month that Pache could be “showcasing himself for 29  other teams.”

Esteury Ruiz, 24, RHH, two minor league options remaining

The Pache dilemma is exacerbated by the fact that the A’s acquired another potential center fielder in this offseason’s Sean Murphy trade. The 24-year-old Ruiz stole a whopping 86 bases in 2022 and is considered among the fastest players in the sport. Like Pache, he has the potential for plus range in center, though scouting reports are far more bullish on Pache’s instincts and overall defensive prowess. There are some similar red flags with Ruiz’s game, though his minor league numbers are a sight to behold. He hit .332/.447/.526 in 541 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season, but Ruiz also posted bottom-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard contact numbers. His lack of hard contact can be somewhat erased by what’ll surely be plenty of infield hits, but there are questions about how impactful his bat and glove can be at the game’s top level. He’s ready for a look right now, but playing time will depend on how the A’s view Pache and, quite likely, their other offseason outfield acquisition. Speaking of which…

JJ Bleday, 25, LHH, three minor league options remaining

Acquired in a straight-up swap for reliever A.J. Puk, Bleday is a former No. 4 overall draft pick whose prospect star has dimmed in recent years as he’s struggled throughout the minors. The Marlins have spent several years in search of an everyday center fielder and still don’t have one, yet they were content to trade Bleday for a controllable bullpen piece. Scouting reports on Bleday peg him as more of a left fielder, and clearly the Marlins agree, or else they wouldn’t have moved on. Bleday has above-average raw power, but he strikes out and pops up too often in trying to get to it in a game setting. He’s a career .225/.337/.409 hitter in the minors, and his strikeout rate has risen at every level, topping out at 27% in Triple-A last year and 28.2% in his 238-plate appearance MLB debut. Bleday took 605 PAs between Triple-A and the Majors last season and, in addition to 166 strikeouts, he popped up a staggering 33 times. That’s an automatic out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances. The A’s can offer some new coaching perspective, so perhaps they can unlock something in Bleday that the Marlins couldn’t, but so far the results on Bleday haven’t come close to aligning with his draft status.

Seth Brown, 30, LHH, two minor league options remaining

Because Brown has spent so much time at first base and in right field (688 innings apiece), it may be a surprise to many that he’s also logged 141 innings in center. He’s not a great option there, but Brown can handle the spot in a pinch and can cycle through all three outfield spots, first base and designated hitter. He’ll have free-agent signee Jesus Aguilar and Oakland’s Rule 5 pick Ryan Noda (more on him in a bit) competing for time at those positions, however, so Brown could see a fair bit of outfield work. The 30-year-old Brown smashed 25 home runs last year and stands as one of the team’s primary power threats. Virtually all of his MLB production has come against righties, which leads to some easy platoon maneuverings. Brown will be arbitration-eligible next winter, and if he continues bashing righties in the first half, he’ll join Laureano on the trade market.

Tony Kemp, 31, LHH, cannot be optioned without his consent (five-plus years of service time)

One of the team’s elder statesmen at just 31 years of age, Kemp is another likely summer trade candidate. He’s spent more time at second base than in left field over the past few seasons, but he’s played both with a fair degree of regularity. Oakland’s signing of Aledmys Diaz could cut into his time at second base, though. Kemp, like Brown, is a better hitter against righties, though the split isn’t as glaring in his case. He should be out there regularly to begin the season, but the presence of Diaz and looming prospect Zack Gelof feels like it’ll eventually lead to a trade, so long as Kemp is playing reasonably well.

Aledmys Diaz, 32, RHH, cannot be optioned

The A’s needed to spend some money this offseason, and luring free-agent bats to a last-place club in a cavernous home park can’t be easy. They paid up on a pair of multi-year deals for versatile infield/outfield veterans Diaz and Jace Peterson (the former of whom seems ticketed for regular work at third base). Diaz can act as a left-handed complement to Kemp at second base, mix in at all four infield slots and will probably also see occasional time in left field and at designated hitter. He’s making more than $7MM this season, which is a sizable sum by Oakland’s standards, so expect him to play fairly regularly.

Ryan Noda, 26, LHH, cannot be optioned (Rule 5 Draft pick)

Noda will need to earn his way onto the roster, but he’s a first base/corner outfield slugger who was blocked in Los Angeles by names like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. With the A’s, there are no such roadblocks to playing time, and he’ll get the chance to prove his career .894 OPS in the minors, including a .259/.396/.474 showing in Triple-A Oklahoma City last year can carry over to the big league level, to some extent. Noda, 27 later this month, has nearly twice as much first base time as he does corner outfield time in his pro career, but the A’s grabbed him for his bat, and he’ll get chances against righties so long as he earns a spot this spring.

Conner Capel, 25, LHH, two minor league options remaining

Capel posted a respectable .264/.364/.422 slash in Triple-A between the Cardinals and the A’s (who claimed him off waivers from St. Louis) in 2022. A 40-plate appearance cup of coffee in Oakland resulted in an eye-popping .371/.425/.600 slash late in the season, though a .423 average on balls in play in that tiny sample had plenty to do with it. Capel’s minor league track record is more solid than standout, but he’s on the 40-man roster and will try to hit his way into an Opening Day roster spot, even if he doesn’t share the recent production and/or prospect pedigree of some of his competitors.

Cal Stevenson, 26, LHH, two minor league options remaining

A thrice-traded former 10th-round pick, Stevenson turned heads with a .322/.413/.529 output in Triple-A last year — his first season in the A’s organization. That came on the heels of his inclusion in the trade sending Christian Bethancourt from Oakland to Tampa Bay, and Stevenson’s overall Triple-A output clocked in at .284/.389/.413 in 307 plate appearances. Stevenson walks at a high clip and has strong bat-to-ball skills, but he’s not a premium defender and has never topped nine home runs in a full season.

Brent Rooker, 28, RHH, one minor league option remaining

The former No. 35 overall pick (Minnesota, 2017), Rooker came to the A’s by way of a waiver claim. Oakland is his fourth team in the past calendar year, as clubs continue to be intrigued by his raw power and minor league production even as injuries and MLB struggles have undercut his appeal. Rooker is a first baseman/left fielder who has a career .274/.387/.590 slash and 62 dingers in 906 Triple-A plate appearances, but he’s mustered tepid .200/.289/.379 line in 270 big league plate appearances. It’s big-time right-handed pop, but Rooker needs to cut back on the 31.9% strikeout rate he’s shown in the Majors.

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Given the slate of options already on the 40-man roster, it’s not a huge surprise that the A’s didn’t add a ton of minor league outfield depth over the winter. Cody Thomas was retained after they passed him through waivers following a DFA, and he’s in camp as a non-roster invitee. Thomas carved up Triple-A pitching in 2021 but missed nearly all of 2022 on the injured list. If he can get back to that ’21 form (.289/.363/.665), he could get another look in 2023. Meanwhile, old friend Greg Deichmann is back in the organization on his own minor league deal after scuffling in his lone full season with the Cubs (who acquired him in the 2021 trade that sent Andrew Chafin from Chicago to Oakland).

Looking just at the names on the 40-man roster, there are clearly far more bodies than at-bats to go around. The A’s are somewhat handcuffed by Pache’s lack of options, so he seems likely to make the roster and occupy at least a part-time role. Both Ruiz and Bleday are clearly viewed as potential outfield regulars by the Athletics’ front office, though neither is a necessary lock to break camp on the active roster (even if they’ll surely be given every opportunity to do so). The A’s are the perfect club to carry someone like Noda — a polished upper-minors hitter who can’t be optioned given his Rule 5 status — but they’ll need to also get Kemp and Brown sufficient at-bats (particularly if the goal is ultimately to trade one or both this summer).

Each of Capel, Stevenson and Rooker could factor into plans as well, though that trio ostensibly feels more like upper-minors depth or perhaps part-time options off the bench. On many clubs, playing time with this type of saturated outfield mix would boil down to a meritocracy, but the rebuilding A’s can and likely will be more patient with out-of-options players, Rule 5 selections and hopeful summer trade chips.

It’s a fluid situation, one without clear answers. An ideal situation would see Laureano, Brown and Kemp play well enough to be traded for decent returns, while Pache takes enough of a step forward to hold down center field as Ruiz and Bleday emerge as viable options on either side of him (all while Noda hits enough to seize the first base job). Things rarely work out so smoothly for any club, however. The A’s badly need some of their newly acquired outfield talent to pan out, though, as last offseason’s slate of trades did little to improve the long-term outlook. How they allot playing time on the path to reaching that end goal will be one of the key stories to monitor for A’s fans this year.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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Instead of the big splashes they sought in previous offseasons, the Angels opted to spread their resources around to various mid-market additions. When combined with the star power already present on the roster, the club is in good position to be competitive for 2023, though they will have to avoid falling short of expectations again. Beyond this year, there is much uncertainty. Owner Arte Moreno is no longer pursuing a sale of the club, but Shohei Ohtani’s free agency is now just about eight months away.

Major League Signings

2022 spending: $37MM
Total spending: $78.25MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades And Claims

Extensions

  • None

Notable Minor League Signees

Notable Losses

The Angels have made plenty of big splashes over the past decade or so, signing marquee players like Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon and Josh Hamilton, as well as acquiring and extending Justin Upton. When combined with Mike Trout and Ohtani, there’s been no shortage of stars in Anaheim. But a lack of depth for injuries has often prevented the club from capitalizing on all that talent. Their last winning season was 2015 and their last postseason appearance was the year prior to that. This offseason, they seemed to try a different tack, signing three different players to modest multi-year deals, as well as a few one-year contracts and trades for players with one year of remaining control.

The first significant move was signing left-hander Tyler Anderson. The 33-year-old was hurt for much of the early part of his career, only reaching the 115-inning mark once by the end of 2020. He then had a healthy and decent season in 2021, posting a 4.53 ERA over 167 innings between the Pirates and Mariners. After signing with the Dodgers for 2022, he went on to have easily the best season of his career. He logged 178 2/3 innings, a career high, and also got his ERA all the way down to 2.57. His 19.5% strikeout rate and 40.1% ground ball rate were both a few ticks shy of average, but he kept runners off the basepaths with a tiny 4.8% walk rate.

Based on that strong season, the Dodgers extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to him. That must have proved pretty tempting for Anderson, considering he made $8MM in 2022 and was never higher than $2.5MM in any season prior to that. However, before his decision window was even up, the Angels swooped in and gave him a three-year, $39MM deal. That was a big development for the club, as the last time they gave a multi-year deal to a free-agent starter was a two-year deal for Joe Blanton going into 2013. There’s some risk here for the Angels, as Anderson’s track record of success is not long. He was also likely helped by a .256 batting average on balls in play last year, but his 3.31 FIP and 4.04 SIERA still indicate he’s a fine addition to the middle of their rotation.

The starting rotation has often been one of the weaker points of the roster in Anaheim, though that might not be the case this year. The club had some young pitchers take steps forward last year and seem positioned to go into 2023 on strong footing there. Back in September, MLBTR’s Steve Adams looked at the developments of lefties Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez. Sandoval finished the year with a 2.91 ERA over 27 starts, Suarez a 3.96 over 20 starts and two relief outings, and Detmers a 3.77 ERA over 25 starts.

Those three lefties figure to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation alongside Anderson and Ohtani, giving them a solid front five. The club has gone with a six-man rotation in recent years in order to lighten Ohtani’s overall workload, but that might not be the case this year. Manager Phil Nevin recently suggested they could go with a five-man group for much of the year, only occasionally leaning on a swingman when needed. Ohtani had Tommy John in October 2018, which wiped out his 2019 and most of his 2020. He got up to 130 1/3 innings in 2021 and then 166 last year. Perhaps he could push himself even farther this year, lessening the need for a strict sixth starter. Pitcher injuries are fairly inevitable, however, and the club will eventually need to turn to another starter. Options on the 40-man include Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning, Chase Silseth and Chris Rodriguez.

In addition to adding Anderson to the rotation, the club also bolstered its bullpen with right-hander Carlos Estévez and left-hander Matt Moore. Estévez has been on a good run over the past four years, outside of a rough showing in the shortened 2020 season. Since the start of 2019, he’s made 223 appearances with a 4.28 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 38.4% ground ball rate. Considering he played his home games at Coors Field and posted a 7.50 ERA in 2020, that’s a pretty good stretch on the whole, and the velocity on his heater and woeful results against his offspeed pitches in 2022 could point to further upside.

As for Moore, his attempts to continue as a starter didn’t go well in recent years, posting an overall 5.26 ERA from 2015 to 2021. But a full-time move to the bullpen last year seemed to suit him, as he tossed 74 innings with a 1.95 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate. He likely won’t sustain a .257 batting average on balls in play or 81.1% strand rate, but his 2.98 FIP and 3.69 SIERA still point to a solid season overall.

Estévez might jump into the closer’s role that was vacated when the Halos dealt Raisel Iglesias to Atlanta at last year’s deadline. However, he could have some competition from Jimmy Herget, who seemed to have a breakout last year. Herget took over the closer’s role with Iglesias gone, finishing the year with nine saves and a 2.48 ERA. Estévez, Herget and Moore should be joined at the back end of the club’s bullpen by veteran holdovers Ryan Tepera and Aaron Loup.

On the position player side of things, the Angels made three key upgrades. Gio Urshela was added to the infield, Hunter Renfroe to the outfield, while Brandon Drury can potentially help in both areas. Urshela was acquired from the Twins so that Minnesota can make way for younger players like José Miranda. He struggled in 2021 but has been an above-average hitter in three of the past four years. In 2022, Urshela hit 13 home runs and slashed .285/.338/.429 for a wRC+ of 119. He mostly played third base but has also seen some brief time at the other infield positions in his career. He’ll allow the club to manage Rendon’s workload after he has missed significant time over the past two years.

If both players are healthy and productive, perhaps Urshela is moved around the diamond. First base is a bit of a question mark right now after Jared Walsh required surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome last year. The middle infield is also a bit uncertain based on 2022. Luis Rengifo was slightly above average at the plate but was graded poorly on defense at both middle infield spots. David Fletcher was the opposite, getting good marks for his glovework but suffering through a rough year at the plate.

Urshela could potentially take some playing time away from any of those players, as could Drury. The well-traveled utilityman has occasionally shown flashes of talent throughout his career but could never quite put it together, often due to injuries. However, 2022 was the year everything finally clicked for Drury. Between the Reds and the Padres, he hit 28 home runs and produced a .263/.320/.492 batting line for a 123 wRC+. He also continued to be incredibly versatile, spending time at all four infield positions. He only had one inning in the outfield last year but has a tally of 965 2/3 frames out there in his career. The middle infield picture is murky but they have six players for four spots on the infield overall in Rendon, Walsh, Drury, Urshela, Fletcher and Rengifo. Even if a couple of them are hurt or underperforming, they could still be okay given that most of them can play multiple positions. Walsh could also spend some time in the outfield, if need be.

Speaking of the outfield, the club parted with Brandon Marsh at last year’s deadline and saw continued struggles from Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak. They already had two spots spoken for with Trout and Taylor Ward, but added a third reliable option in Renfroe. His power is his only standout tool but he’s certainly strong in that department. He’s hit 60 home runs over the past two seasons, while providing defense around an average level. His walk and strikeout rates have also been roughly in line with league averages. He’ll add some thump to the lineup without really hurting elsewhere.

Between Anderson, Estévez, Moore, Urshela, Drury and Renfroe, the club has supplemented their rotation, bullpen, infield and outfield. On the whole, it’s a nice series of additions that don’t totally remake the club but nonetheless decreases the chance of a few injuries totally tanking the season. They’ve also made few long-term commitments, as Anderson’s deal is the longest at three years. Drury and Estévez are on the books through 2024 while Moore, Urshela and Renfroe are all impending free agents. The acquisition costs for both Urshela and Renfroe were low because of their limited control and arbitration salaries around the eight-figure mark. They also added Brett Phillips on a one-year deal to serve as an outfielder who can provide some speed and defense off the bench.

One area of the roster the club didn’t address was catcher. They were linked to Willson Contreras in the offseason before he signed with the Cardinals, but they ultimately decided to stick with in-house options. The primary candidates for big league playing time are Max Stassi and Logan O’Hoppe. Stassi has been considered a strong defender behind the plate and seemed to take a step forward with the bat over 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, he took a big step back last year, hitting .180/.267/.303. His strong run in the previous two years landed him an extension that runs through 2024, but he’ll now have to jockey for playing time with O’Hoppe. The youngster came over from the Phillies in the Marsh trade and had a tremendous season. Between the two organizations, he hit .283/.416/.544 in Double-A last year for a 159 wRC+. He still has no Triple-A experience, but O’Hoppe was a top-100 prospect who got a major league call-up late last year and seems poised to stick in the big leagues. Should he struggle and require some more time in the minors, the Angels also have Matt Thaiss on the 40-man and some non-roster invitees.

All in all, the Angels are going into the season with no glaring holes. There’s some uncertainty here and there, but many fallback options all over what looks to be a deep roster. The greater uncertainty is when looking at things from a distance. Owner Arte Moreno announced in August that he would explore a sale of the team, but then a further announcement in January revealed he had backed off of that pursuit. That gets rid of the uncertainty about the ownership question but that development hasn’t been viewed favorably by all, as Moreno is a divisive figure among the club’s fans. On the one hand, he’s frequently signed off on aggressive payrolls as the club aims to build a competitive teaam around Trout. On the other hand, he has a reputation for meddling in baseball decisions in a way that hasn’t served the club well.

The plan for the manager’s chair will also have to be figured out going forward. Joe Maddon was fired in June. Phil Nevin took over an interim basis and inked a one-year extension in October, so he’ll stick around for 2023. The club was for sale at that time and it was seen by many as a stopgap hire, with a more long-term plan getting kicked down the road until a new owner was in place, either with Nevin or some other skipper. Now that the sale is off, the Angels will have to figure out if Nevin is their guy or if they feel the need to look elsewhere.

The Angels will surely be hoping that this is the year Trout and Ohtani finally get to play in the playoffs together, but it won’t be a cakewalk. They are still looking up at the reigning World Series champion Astros as the heavyweight in the division. On top of that, the Mariners are fresh off breaking their own postseason drought, while the Rangers have been incredibly aggressive in their own attempts to return to contention.

If things don’t go according to plan and the Angels fall shy of contention yet again, they would be positioned to reload for the future in a big way at the deadline. As mentioned, Renfroe, Urshela and Moore are all impending free agents, as is Tepera and, of course, Ohtani. If he were to be made available, he would be among the most attractive deadline trade candidates in history. The club could always sign him to an extension that locks him up for the rest of his career, but there’s been little to suggest such a deal is close to a reality. The two-way superstar has expressed his desire to win, and a strong season from the club could potentially increase the chances of keeping him around. However, by the time that comes to fruition, he would be so close to the open market that it would likely be harder to pull him back from the brink.

The Angels did a lot of good things to patch up their roster for 2023, but the future still seems uncertain. The upcoming campaign could be a huge pivot point for the franchise.

How would you grade the Angels’ offseason? (Link to poll)

In conjunction with the Angels’ Offseason In Review, we held a team-specific chat on March 2. Click here to read the transcript.

The Red Sox’s Catching Question

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For the first time in a half-decade, the Red Sox enter a season with questions about who’ll take the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate. Christian Vázquez has been their Opening Day starter in each of the last five years. His trade to Houston at last summer’s deadline and subsequent three-year free agent signing with the Twins ensures Boston will have to find a new solution in 2023.

The Sox currently have just two catchers on their 40-man roster. Boston brought in Reese McGuire in a trade with the White Sox just hours after shipping Vázquez out last August. The former first-round draftee finished the season well, hitting .337/.377/.500 with a trio of home runs in 36 games with Boston. It was an excellent first impression for the 27-year-old (28 tomorrow) but an outlier in the broader context of his career. In 566 plate appearances between the Blue Jays and White Sox prior to the trade, McGuire had hit .241/.286/.359 with only nine longballs.

McGuire hasn’t had many consistent opportunities to get into a groove against MLB pitching. Before last season, he’d never appeared in even half a team’s games. He’s generally had a strong defensive reputation, though. McGuire has rated as an above-average pitch framer in each of the past two seasons, per Statcast. In just under 1600 career innings behind the dish, he’s thrown out a very strong 31.4% of would-be basestealers.

Connor Wong looks like the early favorite to split time with McGuire at Fenway Park. The other catcher on the 40-man, he’s only played in 33 big league games over the past two seasons. Part of the Mookie Betts trade return from the Dodgers, the 26-year-old Wong has put up an impressive .276/.327/.471 line in 131 games for Triple-A Worcester. That included a particularly strong .288/.349/.489 showing with 15 homers across 355 plate appearances for the WooSox last season.

There’s reason for optimism regarding both McGuire and Wong, though there’s obvious risk in relying on either as a regular considering neither have proven themselves over a full season against MLB competition. McGuire hits left-handed and Wong swings from the right side. That’d seemingly raise the possibility of mixing and matching based on pitcher handedness, though manager Alex Cora pushed back against that this afternoon. “It’s not a strict platoon situation,” Cora said (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe). “Wong can hit righties, too, and Reese can hit lefties. We’ll see how we do it. We’ll see what the roster is and we’ll make decisions.”

The Sox shied away from any significant catching additions this offseason. Boston didn’t add anyone on a major league free agent deal or via trade. Former Marlin and Padre Jorge Alfaro was brought aboard via non-roster pact. Alfaro brings some more experience to camp and looks like the top depth option in the organization. That he was limited to minor league offers this winter hints at the strikeout and defensive questions that have dogged him throughout his career. Alfaro is a .256/.305/.396 hitter with a 34.1% strikeout rate in parts of seven MLB campaigns. He has excellent arm strength but typically posts below-average marks as a receiver.

Former top prospect Ronaldo Hernández and Caleb Hamilton, claimed off waivers from the Twins at the start of the offseason, are also in the organization as non-roster players. Each has upper level experience but has gone unclaimed on waivers this winter and seems clearly behind McGuire and Wong on the roster.

It’s possible Boston looks to augment the catching depth before Opening Day, perhaps by targeting a veteran currently on a minor league deal elsewhere but who doesn’t crack an MLB roster. The Guardians, as one example, have each of Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria and Zack Collins on non-roster pacts battling for a backup job this spring. Gary Sánchez is the top remaining free agent catcher. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week the Red Sox hadn’t had any contact with their longtime division rival.

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