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Yankees Interested In Dylan Cease

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The Yankees were connected yesterday to free agent Blake Snell but it appears they are exploring the trade market as well. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees, and the Orioles, have “sincere” interest in Dylan Cease. The O’s were previously connected to Cease and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” with the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, all previously reported to have interest in Cease, are possibly still in the mix, with other clubs perhaps involved as well. The Braves and the Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets with Atlanta trading for Chris Sale and the Reds signing Frankie Montas and Nick Martínez.

Rumors have been flying around Cease all winter but he remains on the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “pulling back” on the Cease talks. That wasn’t to take him off the market, but rather that the Sox wanted to wait until Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to find out if clubs that missed on him would pivot to Cease as a fallback.

With the interest from the Yankees, that would appear to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs that was heavily connected to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, leaving the Yanks looking elsewhere. They have considered Snell as well as free agent Jordan Montgomery but are checking in on Cease as well.

For the Yanks, they have Gerrit Cole cemented into the top spot of their rotation but things get less clear after that. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors but both of them struggled badly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Schmidt will likely be in the mix towards the back of the rotation, but the club subtracted from its depth in the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are all Padres now. Adding another starting pitcher, and having Rodón and Cortes bounce back a bit, would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely in the five spot and pitchers like Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren providing the depth.

Cease would upgrade any rotation in the league, despite a relative down year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022 but that figure jumped to 4.58 last year, though his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His 2022 success wasn’t likely to be sustainable anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side. Those numbers moved to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, pushing some extra runs across. His strikeout and swinging strike rates did tick down slightly but were both still well above average. His 3.10 FIP in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, suggesting a far less concerning shift, while his SIERA went from 3.48 to 4.10.

Looking at the past three years as a whole evens out some of that luck and paints and an incredibly flattering portrait. He’s made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate. The 10.1% walk rate is on the high side but his 12.6 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time puts him eighth among all MLB pitchers.

His appeal goes beyond his skills, as his earning power is still capped by the arbitration system. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Cease for a salary of $8.8MM this year and he will be due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.

The Yankees currently have a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM, according to Roster Resource. They are set to pay the tax for a third straight year in 2024, which sets them up for escalating penalties. They are already above the third tier of $277MM and nearing the fourth and final tier of $297MM. That means they are facing a tax rate of 95% on current spending until they go over the last line and then have a 110% rate on spending from there.

Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to give out a salary of around $25MM or more, with the taxes effectively doubling that. Given that Cease will be making around a third of that salary figure, that would obviously make him more attractive.

But the flip side of that equation is that Cease will also require sending something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a big batch of young pitchers in the Soto deal and may be reluctant to make another sizable dent in their talent pipeline. As for what the Sox would be looking for, Rosenthal says they are “staying open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that could include major-league-ready pitching.”

With the O’s also having “sincere” interest, they might have an edge on the Yankees in terms of having the talent to get a deal done. Despite constantly graduating prospects to the major league level in recent years, they are still considered to have the top farm system in the league by many evaluators. Jackson Holliday is almost certainly untouchable but the club also has guys like Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz without enough open positions for all of them.

The club has also shown a bias against bold moves, both in the trade market and free agency, which is why they have that loaded farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit nicely into a rotation with lots of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez are at the top of the rotation for now, after each showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez less than one. Then there’s John Means, who has hardly pitched in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin options for the back end.

As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox may still be involved and that might not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto off the board, it seems the pitching market is broadly heating up and a Cease trade could happen at any time now.

Yankees Claim Bubba Thompson From Reds

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed outfielder Bubba Thompson off waivers from the Reds. The latter club designated him for assignment last week. The Yanks came into today with two open roster spots on their 40-man roster but have now claimed Thompson and reportedly signed right-hander Cody Poteet.

Thompson, 26 in June, has 92 games of major league experience, all of that coming with the Rangers over the past two seasons. He has hit .242/.286/.305 in his first 241 major league plate appearances, which translates to a wRC+ of 65. But he has 22 steals in 27 tries and Statcast considers his sprint speed to be elite, with just Elly De La Cruz and Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of him in 2023.

His hitting has been a bit better at the Triple-A level, where he’s hit .284/.347/.440 for a wRC+ of 95 dating back to the start of 2022. Since he has that elite speed and is considered a strong outfield defender as well, even a bit of offense could make him an intriguing player.

The Yankees have a crowded outfield with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham all set for regular or semi-regular playing time. Jasson Domínguez will be in the mix once he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Oswaldo Cabrera will likely be on the roster in a utility capacity while Everson Pereira and Oscar González are on the 40-man as well.

Thompson still has a couple of options, so the Yanks can keep in the minors to get regular reps and see if his bat develops. Even if that doesn’t happen, his speed and defense could help him carve out a bench role as a pinch runner or defensive replacement at some point. He still has less than a year of service time and is therefore still a ways away from free agency or even reaching arbitration.

Yankees Interested In Blake Snell

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The Yankees are interested in left-hander Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That meshes with reporting from Andy Martino of SNY, who says the club is “planning an active January” as it hopes to add to its pitching staff before Spring Training. Martino adds that Snell has privately expressed an interest in the Yankees, though also adds they are not the only club in his market.

The Yankees were heavily pursuing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, highlighting their desire to add to their rotation. Previous reports from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested that, if the Yanks missed on Yamamoto, they might pivot to build a super bullpen instead of focusing on the rotation. Now that Yamamoto has signed with the Dodgers, the Yankees are exploring their other options and it seems they haven’t totally abandoned the idea of a significant rotation addition. They have had ongoing interest in bringing back Jordan Montgomery and now Snell appears to be on the table as well.

If they were to sign Snell, they would have a rotation fronted by the two reigning Cy Young winners. Snell just took home the National League hardware for his excellent season with the Padres while Gerrit Cole got the American League trophy. Despite that, the pitchers are actually quite different. While Cole has been the poster boy for stability and reliability, Snell’s career has been more erratic.

He finished 2023 with 180 innings pitched for the Friars, registering a 2.25 ERA in that time. He struck out 31.5% of batters faced and kept 44.4% of batted balls on the ground but also gave out walks at a 13.3% clip. That got him second career Cy Young, the first coming with the Rays in 2018 when he had a 1.89 ERA. But the four seasons in between those two elite campaigns were more shaky. His ERA finished 4.20 or higher twice and he didn’t reach 130 innings in any of them, dealing with various injuries.

Those concerns aside, Snell is clearly one of the best pitchers in the league when things are going well and he has received interest from the Giants, Angels, Mets and Red Sox. The Yankees slotting him next to Cole would give the club an excellent one-two punch. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are each coming off disappointing injury-marred seasons but have been excellent in the past. If they are able to bounce back this year, and the club signs Snell, then they would be looking at arguably the best front four in the league. The depth was thinned out in the Juan Soto deal, with four pitchers going to San Diego, but the Yanks still have Clarke Schmidt, Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren as options for the back end.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a seven-year deal worth $200MM, around $28.6MM per year. The Yankees haven’t been shy about handing out huge deals for starting pitchers in recent years, as they gave Cole $324MM, Rodon $162MM and reportedly offered Yamamoto $300MM over 10 years.

Per Roster Resource, the club currently has a payroll of $279MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM. The Yanks are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight year, meaning they have a base tax rate of 50% for any spending beyond the lowest threshold of $237MM. As the brackets go up in $20MM increments, their tax rates jump to 62%, 95% and 110%. They are already well beyond the third line and just $7MM away from the highest tier. That means that signing Snell to a salary in the $25-30MM range would actually cost them around twice as much when factoring in the taxes.

Last year, the club was reluctant to pass the final tier but it feels as though they are more willing to blow past it this year, given that they are so close to it and still actively pursuing upgrades. Even if they eventually turn away from a rotation addition and turn instead to relievers like Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson, they would still find themselves on the other side of the border.

Latest On Shota Imanaga’s Market

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Shota Imanaga is among the more intriguing starting pitchers still on the free agent market. The Japanese left-hander became available to MLB teams on November 27, when he was formally posted by the Yokohama BayStars.

That opened a 45-day window for Imanaga to sign with a major league club. He’ll need to ink a contract with an MLB team by January 11 if he’s to make the jump to North America this offseason. With eight days to go, it’s little surprise Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Imanaga’s market will gain steam this week. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported around Christmas the southpaw was planning a trip to meet with interested teams shortly after the New Year.

The Red Sox, Giants, Mets and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Imanaga since his posting window opened. In mid-December, Jon Heyman of the New York Post also listed the Yankees as a team that was keeping an eye on Imanaga as a fallback option if they missed on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

However, Heyman suggested in an appearance on Bleacher Report this afternoon (X link) that the Yankees weren’t enamored with the southpaw. Imanaga allowed 17 home runs in 148 innings a season ago, the second-most in Japan’s top league. New York’s front office seemingly has concerns about how well he’d profile in a park as hitter-friendly as Yankee Stadium.

Despite the home run concerns, the 30-year-old is going to do quite well financially. Imanaga led NPB with 174 strikeouts while issuing only 24 walks (a meager 4% rate). Some evaluators project him as a mid-rotation starter. Passan reiterated this morning that many executives feel he’ll land a contract in excess of $100MM. That’d be well above the five-year, $75MM pact secured by Kodai Senga last winter even though Senga was arguably coming off a better platform showing.

Senga had allowed just seven homers with a 27.5% strikeout rate and a sparkling 1.94 ERA in 2022. Imanaga had a slightly superior strikeout percentage (29.2%) and allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine last year. Senga was also entering his age-30 season. Unlike Imanaga, he was a true free agent, so the Mets weren’t required to send any compensation to his NPB club. Any team that signs Imanaga would owe the BayStars a fee valued at 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.

That said, it’s possible teams harbored reservations about Senga’s health that they won’t have regarding Imanaga. The Mets reportedly expressed some trepidation with his elbow during their physical. That obviously didn’t scuttle the deal, but it could’ve factored into his earning potential.

Imanaga may also benefit from the success Senga had in his first MLB campaign. The righty finished runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year balloting after posting a 2.98 ERA across 166 1/3 innings. That Senga looked like more than a mid-rotation starter in his first MLB season could give some clubs added confidence in projecting Imanaga’s ability to handle big league hitters with a fairly similar projection.

Mets, Yankees Among Teams With Interest In Gio Urshela

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The Mets and Yankees are among the teams interested in third baseman Gio Urshela, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic.

Urshela, of course, is no stranger to New York after enjoying a breakout season with the Yankees back in 2019 and spending three seasons in the Bronx. Since that breakout season, Urshela has established himself as an above-average regular in the infield with a .291/.335/.452 slash line good for a 115 wRC+ over the past five seasons with the Yankees, Twins, and Angels. Urshela has paired that above average offensive production with roughly average defense around the infield dirt, where he’s played primarily third base along with some shortstop and brief cameos at both first and second base.

The infielder’s market has been relatively quiet for most of the offseason to this point. The only potential connection to get any buzz to this point in the winter for Urshela was a recent report of interest from the Blue Jays, though even that comes with the caveat that Toronto’s interest may wane in the wake of the Isiah Kiner-Falefa signing. The relatively quiet market for Urshela’s services could connect back to the infielder’s injury-marred 2023 campaign. While he hit a decent .299/.329/.374 during his time in Anaheim, it’s worth noting the fact that he appeared in just 62 games with the club after his season came to an abrupt end in early June thanks to a pelvic fracture. Given Urshela’s downturn in power production as an Angel and the significant injury the 32-year-old is recovering from, it would be understandable if clubs viewed his free agency with some trepidation.

Even in spite of the question marks surrounding Urshela and his injury-plagued 2023 campaign, he still stands as one of the better infield options on the market this offseason. The unusually thin positional market has been hit particularly hard with regards to available infielders, with Urshela standing as one of the best players available behind third baseman Matt Chapman. The likes of Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Eduardo Escobar and Adam Frazier make up the next tier of players available, all of whom Urshela rates relatively favorably in comparison to.

Given that reality, it’s no surprise that the Mets would have at least some level of interest in Urshela’s services. Switch-hitting youngster Ronny Mauricio appeared to be in line for a shot to be the club’s regular third baseman in 2024, but the 22-year-old suffered an ACL tear while playing winter ball earlier this month, leaving the club with only Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Joey Wendle as options for regular starts at the hot corner entering next year. Both Baty and Vientos have struggled offensively in the majors and have questions about their defensive ability at third, while Wendle had previously been ticketed for a utility role in Queens next year. The addition of Urshela to the club’s mix would take pressure off of Baty and Vientos while given the Mets a right-handed complement to Wendle who is similarly versatile on defense.

Urshela’s fit with the Yankees is far less clear. With Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe all entrenched at first base, second base, and shortstop respectively, that leaves third base as the only uncertain infield position in the Bronx as things stand. While that’s Urshela’s native position, the club nonetheless has veteran DJ LeMahieu penciled in as the everyday third baseman as well as youngsters like Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera who could step into the club’s infield mix in the event of an injury. Even on the heels of a relative down season by LeMahieu’s standards, the addition of Urshela is not a clear upgrade over the 35-year-old veteran and would likely only serve to clog up the club’s infield mix further. Of course, it’s possible that a trade of a player such as Torres could free up space on the dirt and make a reunion between the Yankees and Urshela more plausible.

Sammon’s report also suggests that the two New York clubs are not the only ones with interest in Urshela’s services, though it does not name any other specific clubs. It’s at least possible Toronto still has interest in adding Urshela even after signing Kiner-Falefa, but other speculative fits for the infielder’s services include the Cubs, Mariners, and Brewers. Chicago currently figures to utilize some combination of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Christopher Morel at third base, while the Brewers and Mariners appear likely to turn to Andruw Monasterio and Luis Urias respectively at the hot corner.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery

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While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.

That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.

The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.

The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.

Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.

Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.

Latest On Clubs’ Interest In Yariel Rodriguez

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December 28: ESPN’s Enrique Rojas reports (on X) that Boston, Pittsburgh and Toronto have all shown interest in Rodriguez as a starter. Cincinnati, San Diego and the Yankees prefer the right-hander in a relief role. Rojas indicates that Rodriguez prefers to start, although there’s no indication he has officially ruled out any teams targeting him in a bullpen capacity.

December 27: The Reds and Red Sox are among the teams still showing interest in free agent right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, tweets Francys Romero. Last week, Romero reported that the Pirates, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees were also in the running.

Cincinnati hasn’t been frequently tied to Rodriguez throughout the offseason. The Reds were among roughly half the league that sent scouts to evaluate the righty’s throwing session in the Dominican Republic on October 10, a few days after he’d been granted his release from the NPB’s Chunichi Dragons. There hasn’t been much to connect the sides since that point, although it’s not especially surprising that Cincinnati is involved on one of free agency’s younger pitchers.

The Reds have made two major league additions to the pitching staff. Swingman Nick Martinez signed for two years and $26MM, while reliever Emilio Pagán inked a two-year, $16MM deal. President of baseball operations Nick Krall indicated that Martinez will compete for a rotation spot but stopped short of calling him a lock for the season-opening five.

Rodriguez falls into a similar category, as there’s some question about whether he’ll stick in an MLB rotation. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen with the Dragons in his final NPB season in 2022. He turned in a stellar 1.15 ERA while striking out 27.5% of opponents over 54 2/3 innings. His 8.3% walk percentage was right in line with the MLB average.

Despite the strong results in relief, it’s likely whichever MLB team signs Rodriguez will give him an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot. He had started in Cuba’s top league before his stint in Japan, and he worked out of the rotation for the Cuban national team during last spring’s World Baseball Classic. Clubs that feel Rodriguez has mid-rotation upside could entertain a noteworthy contract. One evaluator with whom MLBTR spoke before the beginning of the offseason suggested Rodriguez could land a guarantee between $30MM and $50MM.

The Reds have a projected rotation of Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Left-hander Brandon Williamson and Martinez stand as the top competitors for the #5 job. Aside from Martinez, it’s a generally young group. They’ve all shown promise at the MLB level, but each of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft battled injuries last season. None of Abbott, Williamson nor Martinez have ever pitched a full season out of an MLB rotation. That’s also true of Rodriguez, of course, but the Reds could view his youth and ability to work multiple innings as a strong fit as they move firmly into win-now mode after their 2022 retool.

Boston has been linked to Rodriguez more frequently throughout the winter. The 6’1″ hurler held a workout in front of Sox’s and Padres’ evaluators last month. Boston is casting a wide net on the rotation front. While they’ve been tied to top-of-the-market hurlers like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recently wrote they appeared more focused on the middle tiers of the free agent class.

Dodgers Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto To 12-Year Deal

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For the second time this month, the Dodgers have made a record-setting free agent strike. Los Angeles announced the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year contract. The NPB star lands a reported $325MM guarantee, an all-time high for a pitcher. The deal comes with a near-$51MM posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, bringing the overall commitment north of $375MM. Yamamoto is represented by Wasserman.

“I’d like to thank everyone in the Orix organization, the Dodger organization and all the people close to me who have given me so much support throughout this free-agent process,” Yamamoto said in a statement released by the team. “I am truly excited to wear Dodger Blue and can’t wait to play in front of a packed Dodger Stadium.”

Yamamoto receives a massive $50MM signing bonus and a pair of opt-out opportunities. Those are conditional on the status of his elbow but would allow him to retest free agency after the 2029 and ’31 seasons if he stays healthy. If he doesn’t incur a serious elbow injury, he’d be weighing whether to opt out of the last six years and $170MM once the 2029-30 offseason arrives. The deal does not contain any deferred money.

The right-hander has been the best pitcher in Japan for the past few seasons. He spent parts of seven years with the Buffaloes. By his age-20 campaign, he’d emerged as one of the top pitchers at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Yamamoto turned in a 1.95 ERA that season, kicking off a run of five straight years allowing no more than 2.20 earned runs per nine.

That includes sub-2.00 ERA showings over his final trio of seasons. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award as Japan’s best pitcher in all three years. He worked to a 1.39 ERA over 193 2/3 innings in 2021, followed by a 1.68 mark in 193 frames the next season. Yamamoto somehow turned in an even better year in his final season, pitching to a microscopic 1.21 ERA through 168 frames.

Among NPB pitchers to reach 100 innings, Yamamoto’s ERA was more than half a run lower than anyone else’s. (Shoki Murakami finished second with a 1.75 mark in 144 1/3 frames). Only Shota Imanaga, who is also available to MLB teams this offseason via the posting system, topped Yamamoto’s 169 strikeouts. He punched out 26.6% of opposing hitters against a tidy 4.4% walk rate.

It’s about as dominant a body of work as a pitcher can build before he faces any MLB hitters. The elite production is supported by both scouting and quantitive evaluations of Yamamoto’s arsenal. Evaluators are nearly unanimous in projecting him as a high-octane major league starter. Conservative estimates on his upside point to a future as a high-end #2 starter, while other scouts have pegged him as a potential ace.

Eno Sarris of the Athletic recently broke down Yamamoto’s repertoire. He suggested Yamamoto brandishes three plus or better offerings highlighted by a split-finger that should be among the best in the majors. The righty worked in the mid-upper 90s with his fastball in shorter stints during the World Baseball Classic. He also sports a promising curveball and a cutter as his third and fourth offerings, while evaluators praise his athleticism and command.

Yamamoto would have been in high demand even if he were in his late 20s or early 30s, the standard age for a free agent pitcher. That he debuted in NPB as an 18-year-old and was made available via the posting system only adds to the appeal. Yamamoto turned 25 in August, making him the first marquee free agent pitcher that age since Masahiro Tanaka signed during the 2013-14 offseason. He’ll be paid through his age-36 season.

To the extent there are concerns about Yamamoto, they’re limited to his lack of MLB experience and a smaller 5’10” frame. That hasn’t worried many evaluators, though, and they’re clearly not issues for the Dodgers.

Entering the offseason, it was widely believed Yamamoto would land the largest contract ever for a player coming over from NPB. It’d have been a far bolder prediction to peg him for the largest deal of any pitcher in major league history. That’s what he’ll receive, though, setting the mark in both contract length and guarantee. He’s the first pitcher in recent memory to reach even the 10-year mark. The guarantee edges past the $324MM which Gerrit Cole landed with the Yankees during the 2019-20 offseason. Yamamoto’s deal stretches three more seasons than Cole’s does, but his camp is surely pleased with the guarantee record even if it required slightly lowering the annual salary.

The deal comes with a $27.08MM average annual value. Regardless of the precise salary distribution, that’s the relevant factor for the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax picture. That pushes L.A. well into the third tier of luxury tax penalization. Roster Resource calculates the club’s CBT number in the $282MM range.

The Dodgers are set to pay the tax for a third consecutive season. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% for their next $20MM, and a 95% clip for spending between $277MM and $297MM. (They’ll be taxed at a 110% rate for any dollars above $297MM.) By pushing the Dodgers from around $255MM to $282MM from a tax perspective, the contract adds roughly $18.2MM in tax payments. It also means that future acquisitions will come with an elevated tax height.

On top of the money to Yamamoto and the tax payments, the Dodgers are on the hook for a huge sum to Orix. Under the terms of the NPB/MLB posting system, a posting fee is calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. That comes out to $50.625MM which the Dodgers owe to the Buffaloes.

It’s a staggering outlay, one that pushes near the $400MM mark in aggregate. It’s the kind of massive strike the Dodgers envisioned in the wake of the Shohei Ohtani signing. The defending AL MVP deferred $680MM of his $700MM deal until 2034-43. That left plenty of money at the front office’s disposal to fix the starting rotation. With Ohtani unable to pitch until 2025, he signed with a team that only had Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller as locks for the Opening Day rotation.

Within a couple weeks, the Dodgers have constructed a star-studded pitching staff to complement their strong bullpen and loaded lineup. Los Angeles acquired and promptly extended Tyler Glasnow. Adding Yamamoto to the group gives them a potentially elite front four. There’s still some risk. Glasnow and Buehler have concerning injury histories, while neither Yamamoto nor Miller has pitched a full season in MLB. Yet it’s also not difficult to see the path to excellent results regardless of whomever takes the final spot. Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove project as the top internal options, but it’d be foolish to rule out the Dodgers adding a veteran arm to continue their all-in push.

Aggressive as the signing is for L.A., they weren’t meaningfully above their top competitors in the bidding. Martino reports that the Yankees put forth a 10-year, $300MM offer, while the Mets put the same $325MM figure on the table. According to Martino, Yamamoto’s camp had sought opt-out provisions after the fifth and eighth seasons in those discussions. The Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Phillies were also in the running down to the final week.

In the end, it seems Yamamoto preferred the Dodgers to the other clubs that were seriously involved. The Athletic’s Will Sammon reports that the Mets first presented the $325MM offer, which the Dodgers agreed to match. He’ll join Ohtani, Glasnow, Buehler, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith on a team that’s likely to enter the 2024 campaign as the most popular World Series pick.

The rest of the clubs will look elsewhere. The Mets seem likely to have a fairly quiet offseason, as they reportedly viewed Yamamoto as a unique free agent based on his youth and talent. They’re not expected to pivot to the next tiers of free agency. The Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox could all still be in play for top-of-the-market talent, either on the rotation front or at other positions. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery now stand atop the starting pitching class, while Cody Bellinger is arguably the best remaining overall free agent. The market could also now accelerate for Imanaga, the #2 NPB pitcher who has until mid-January to sign with an MLB team.

Jack Curry of the YES Network first reported that Yamamoto would sign with the Dodgers for more than $300MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the 12-year, $325MM term. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was first with the $50MM signing bonus, while Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the absence of deferrals. Passan reported the two opt-out possibilities.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians Acquire Estevan Florial From Yankees

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The Yankees and Guardians have agreed on a trade that will send outfielder Estevan Florial to Cleveland in exchange for right-hander Cody Morris, per an announcement from both clubs.

The trade ends Florial’s tenure with the Yankees, with whom he signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015. After posting solid numbers in the lower levels of the minor leagues during his teenage years and reaching the High-A level before his 20th birthday, Florial began getting buzz as a consensus top-50 prospect throughout the sport prior to the 2018 season. Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Florial somewhat from there as the outfielder struggled at the High-A level in both 2018 and 2019. He made his big league debut during the shortened 2020 season and since then has served as a depth outfielder for the big league Yankees, with 48 appearances in the majors total in his four-year big league career.

While Florial, 26, has managed a slash line of just .209/.313/.296 across his 134 career plate appearances in the majors, his time in the minor leagues has seen him improve substantially in recent years. Fl0rial sports a career slash line of .265/.358/.490 at the Triple-A level, with an even more impressive .284/.380/.565 slash line in 101 games at the level in 2023. Given Florial’s extremely limited big league exposure to this point in his career, it’s easy to imagine him finding some level of success in Cleveland, where he should have a clear path to at least semi-regular at-bats. The Guardians put forth the third-worst outfield unit in the majors last year by measure of wRC+, as the club’s outfielders collectively hit just .250/.312/.342. Florial could challenge the likes of Ramon Laureano and Myles Straw for regular playing time alongside Steven Kwan, who appears locked into left field entering the 2024 campaign.

In exchange for Florial’s services, the Guardians are parting with Morris. The 27-year-old right-hander was the club’s seventh-round pick in the 2018 draft and first made his big league debut in 2022, where he performed well in seven appearances (five starts). While Morris posted an elevated walk rate of 12% that pushed his FIP up to 4.34, he struck out a respectable 23% of batters faced and managed an excellent 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings of work during his first season in the majors.

In the minor leagues, Morris was even more impressive, with a career 1.68 ERA and a 37.8% strikeout rate in 80 1/3 innings of work between the Double-A and Triple-A levels as the 2022 campaign came to a close. Morris opened the 2023 season on the injured list due to a teres major strain but returned to action in June. While the right-hander put up respectable numbers at Triple-A, including a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings of work across 21 appearances, he struggled badly across six relief appearances in the majors with a 6.75 ERA over eight innings of work.

Despite Morris’s struggles with injury and ineffectiveness at the big league level last year, he provides the Yankees with an interesting, optionable arm who has experience pitching both out of the rotation and in the bullpen with strong numbers at the minor league level and some small-sample size success at the big league level. That type of arm would surely be attractive to just about any club, but could be particularly appealing to the Yankees after the club shipped cost-controlled pitchers like Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to San Diego as part of the package that landed the club Juan Soto earlier this month.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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