Guardians Place Shane Bieber On 15-Day Injured List
TODAY: Bieber will be shut down from throwing for the next two weeks, MLB.com’s Mandy Bell writes, and will be evaluated on a week-to-week basis. The good news is that Bieber won’t need surgery, as determined following a consultation today with Dr. Keith Meister.
JULY 15: Bieber has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammatino, with the Guardians calling up righty Michael Kelly from Triple-A in the corresponding move.
JULY 14: Guardians starter Shane Bieber is going for an MRI on his forearm/elbow area, skipper Terry Francona told reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com and Zack Meisel of the Athletic). While he hasn’t been placed on the injured list, he won’t make Monday’s start as scheduled.
Obviously, the seriousness of the issue isn’t yet clear. Francona suggested that Bieber has pitched through some forearm discomfort for a few weeks. That the club wasn’t concerned enough to send him for imaging before today and hasn’t immediately placed him on the IL could suggest they’re not overly concerned.
If imaging reveals anything that’d send Bieber to the IL, it could have serious ramifications for both the playoff picture and the trade market. Cleveland enters the unofficial second half leading the Twins by half a game in the AL Central. Potentially subtracting a pitcher who carries a 3.77 ERA through 117 innings would obviously be a hit to the roster.
Bieber has also been frequently speculated upon as a possible trade candidate. Cleveland has a number of young pitchers — headlined by Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who look like quality rotation pieces. A trade of Bieber or (to a lesser extent) Aaron Civale might allow Cleveland to land immediate help for a below-average offense while backfilling the lost innings with a younger pitcher. Bibee and Williams are in the MLB rotation. Allen was recently optioned but seems likely to be recalled with Bieber’s start being skipped.
The 2020 AL Cy Young winner is making just over $10MM this season. He is eligible for arbitration once more before first hitting the free agent market over the 2024-25 offseason.
Angels Will Reportedly Consider Shohei Ohtani Trade Offers; Deal Seen As Unlikely
As the trade deadline is now just over two weeks away, various clubs on the fringes of contention will have to make tough decisions about which players to trade and which to hang onto. The toughest decision and the one that is sure to get the most attention in the coming weeks is whether or not the Angels will trade two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
As of a few weeks ago, general manager Perry Minasian said the club’s position was “self-explanatory” at a time when they were 41-34 and in possession of a Wild Card spot. That seemed to suggest the club had no intention of trading Ohtani, though much has changed since then, with the club sliding in the standings prior to the All-Star break while also getting the grim news that Mike Trout is going to miss four to eight weeks after undergoing surgery for a fractured hamate.
With their record falling to 45-44 by last week, reporting indicated they seemed to be “leaving open the slight possibility” of making Ohtani available. After that report, the club lost two more games and went into the break at 45-46, fourth place in the West and five games back of the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Their playoff odds on FanGraphs are down to 10.7%. Today, Jon Morosi of MLB Network echoes that earlier reporting, taking to Threads to relay that the club will consider incoming trade scenarios, even though their bar for a trade remains incredibly high and a deal is still considered unlikely.
It’s not terribly surprising to hear that the club will listen to whatever offers come their way from other clubs. This is one of the toughest decisions a baseball club has ever had to make and it stands to reasons that they would want as much information as possible about each path before picking one.
The reasons for the difficulty of the decision are both due to the unique talent of Ohtani and the precarious position of the Angels. Ohtani’s skills are unprecedented and well-documented, but here’s a refresher if you need one. Dating back to the start of 2021, he’s hit 112 home runs, a tally bested only by Aaron Judge in that time. His combined batting line of .274/.369/.579 in those seasons amounts to a 154 wRC+, which places him fourth among qualified hitters in that stretch behind only Judge, Trout and Yordan Alvarez. He’s done all that while posting a 2.86 ERA as a pitcher in just under 400 innings, with that earned run mark the eight best among qualified pitchers.
One player managing to simultaneously serve as one of the best pitchers and best hitters in the game is something that seemed unfathomable until Ohtani came along and reshaped our perceptions of what is possible in this game. But despite being the only club that has such a player on their roster, the Angels haven’t been able to construct a winning team around him. They haven’t even been able to finish with a record above .500 since 2015. With Ohtani set to become a free agent in a few months’ time, their window for achieving that goal is rapidly closing.
This isn’t the first time the prospect of an Ohtani trade has come up, as similar reports emerged one year ago. The club still had a year and a half of Ohtani’s services to bank on at that time, but they were even further back in the standings, sporting a record of 42-57. Ultimately, a deal didn’t come together, with owner Arte Moreno reportedly being the one that prevented a deal from being seriously pursued. The club didn’t consider trades in the offseason either and had planned to give contention another try, hoping to both capitalize on Ohtani’s contributions while also convincing him to stay beyond the 2023 season by showing him they could win.
With the club now once again floundering outside of contention, they will have to pick their poison soon, with all signs pointing to the fact that the club’s performance in the next few weeks could push them in one direction one way or another. Ohtani’s unique abilities, not to mention marketability, would be highly sought after by all contending clubs. The Angels will undoubtedly have offers that will allow them to completely restock their farm system, which could help them in future seasons. But doing so would mean trying to win without Ohtani in those future seasons, and with Trout now into his 30s with injuries becoming a more frequent issue.
Trading the most uniquely-talented baseball player of all time would undoubtedly be incredibly painful, not to mention a potential public relations nightmare, which perhaps might lead the club to holding on and hoping for the best down the stretch. It’s worth reiterating that all reporting indicates a deal is still unlikely, merely that the club is listening to offers that other clubs are making, not that they are shopping him around. However, not trading him contains what is surely the worst-case scenario of missing the playoffs and then seeing him depart in free agency for next to nothing. The club would be able to issue him a qualifying offer and recoup a compensatory draft pick, but the value of that will be far less than whatever offers will be on the table in the next few weeks.
All things considered, it doesn’t seem hyperbolic to say that the future of the Angels will be determined in the coming weeks. Although a deal still seems unlikely, it doesn’t seem to be completely off the table. If they flounder in their upcoming games and decide to on a trade, it will likely be some kind of franchise-altering return that’s difficult to predict since a trade of this nature has never happened before. Last year, the club reportedly wanted “something like your top four prospects” in trade talks. The price may well have dropped now that Ohtani has just a few months of remaining control, but it would likely still be very high. Given the dilemma that the club’s decision makers are in, it stands to reason that they would want to give a thorough assessment to all offers so that they know exactly what their options are.
But perhaps they stay close enough to decide against such a move, trying to compete without Trout for at least part of the near future. If it works, perhaps they can convince Ohtani to re-sign, though he hasn’t tipped his hand one way or another as to whether that’s something he would seriously consider or what his priorities will be in free agency beyond winning. The Angels start a homestand tonight against the Astros, Yankees and Pirates, then go out on the road to Toronto, Detroit and Atlanta before the August 1 deadline.
Reds Have Shown Interest In White Sox’s Starters
The Reds have been in contact with the White Sox as they search for rotation help, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Threads). Specific targets aren’t reported, though it’s not hard to infer which players could be of interest.
Lucas Giolito is arguably the sport’s most apparent trade candidate. The right-hander is an impending free agent and has a 3.45 ERA through 19 starts. He’s striking out a little more than a quarter of opponents against a modest 7.3% walk rate. While Giolito’s velocity and whiffs are down marginally from a 2019-21 stretch that saw him post a 3.47 ERA in 72 appearances, he has rebounded nicely from a down 2022 season.
With the White Sox now 17 games below .500, they’re predictably approaching the deadline as sellers. The Sox aren’t expected to make a strong run at re-signing Giolito, whose upcoming free agent deal is likely to easily eclipse Chicago’s franchise-record $75MM guarantee for Andrew Benintendi.
He’d be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer that would afford Chicago draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly receive more compelling prospect offers in the next couple weeks though. The Dodgers have already checked in and virtually every contender figures to be in touch with Chicago GM Rick Hahn before August 1.
Giolito is playing this season on a $10.4MM arbitration salary. Around $3.35MM will be remaining from the deadline onwards. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has indicated the club has the payroll flexibility to accommodate midseason trade targets. Rotation help is the obvious area to do so.
While Giolito would be the more appealing target for other teams, Chicago seems likely to move veteran righty Lance Lynn as well. The 36-year-old carries a career-high 6.03 ERA over 103 innings but has much better strikeout and walk marks. Lynn is fanning hitters at a strong 27.9% clip against an average 8.1% walk rate. His biggest issue, an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed, could be a tough fit at Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Still, the durability Lynn provides would be welcome for a Reds’ rotation light on experience at present.
Lynn is making $18.5MM this season. His contract contains an $18MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $1MM. With the two-time All-Star likely headed to free agency next winter, the Sox figure to look for trade possibilities this month. That’s also true of Mike Clevinger, whose contract contains a $12MM mutual option the team will likely buy out for $4MM. They could be hard-pressed to find interest in Clevinger considering the fairly lofty buyout price and biceps inflammation that has had him on the injured list for a month.
There’s less urgency on either Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech. Both pitchers are eligible for arbitration through 2025. The asking price on either player — Cease especially — would be significantly higher than what the Sox would expect for even their top rental in Giolito. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested earlier this week that Chicago could be willing to hear offers on Kopech but wasn’t interested in parting with Cease.
Cincinnati is surely in contact with a number of teams as they explore rotation possibilities. Tonight’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers dropped them into a tie with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. They’re still positioned as deadline buyers, of course, with a rotation that ranked 28th in ERA (5.69) entering play Friday standing as the big concern. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene are on the injured list. Cincinnati has rookie Andrew Abbott at the top of the rotation, followed by Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. The latter two pitchers have struggled.
Antonio Senzatela To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela will undergo Tommy John surgery, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Lyons of DNVR Sports). The righty is already on the 60-day injured list. He recently suffered a setback during his attempt to rehab from an elbow sprain that sent him to the IL two months ago.
It’s another dismal development for a Colorado pitching staff that has had a disastrous year. Opening Day starter Germán Márquez underwent a Tommy John procedure of his own in May. Kyle Freeland had been healthy and effective for much of the first half, but he suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder during his final start before the All-Star Break.
A healthy Senzatela would quite likely be Colorado’s #3 starter behind Márquez and Freeland. The Rox are now without all three members of that group. Márquez’s time in the organization could be nearing its end completely. Colorado is sure to buy out a club option valued at $16MM, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if they tried to bring him back on a cheaper multi-year deal after that.
Senzatela will be on the roster next season, but he’s now slated to miss most or all of the year. The typical rehab for a Tommy John surgery ranges from 14-16 months. It’s possible he makes it back toward the tail end of the 2024 campaign if his recovery goes well.
The Venezuelan-born righty had been a decent innings eater for Colorado early in his career. He’s started 20+ games on three separate occasions and took the ball all 12 times through the rotation during the shortened 2020 schedule. Between 2020-21, he pitched to a 4.11 ERA through 230 innings. That’s solid production for a pitcher spending half his games in the league’s most hitter-friendly environment.
Near the end of the ’21 campaign, Colorado signed Senzatela to a five-year extension that guaranteed him $50.5MM. The contract bought out his final two arbitration seasons, three would-be free agent years, and contained a club option for a fourth free agent campaign (2027).
The first three years of that deal will now be defined by injury. Senzatela’s 2022 was cut short when he tore the ACL in his left knee last August. The rehab from the subsequent surgery carried into May. He made it back from the knee issue but started only two games before the elbow injury.
Senzatela will be paid $12MM annually for the next three seasons. Colorado’s ’27 option is valued at $14MM and does not come with a buyout. Senzatela could have tacked on another $1MM to his 2024-27 salaries had he been healthy enough to toss 200+ innings in either of the past two seasons, though that hasn’t come to be.
The Rox are now going to be even harder pressed in attacking their pitching staff next winter. They’re currently relying on a patchwork group comprising Austin Gomber, Connor Seabold and Chase Anderson. The club just added veteran righty Chris Flexen on a non-roster pact, while the likes of Noah Davis and Peter Lambert are possible depth options.
Only Gomber, who has righted the ship after a horrid first month, looks likely to be in next year’s season-opening rotation. Freeland should be the staff ace, but Colorado could have to acquire three or four starting pitching options over the coming months. General manager Bill Schmidt acknowledged earlier this week the team would prioritize young pitching in potential deadline trades, though none of the veterans whom Colorado appears to be shopping is likely to return a prospect of especially high regard.
Matt Barnes To Undergo Hip Surgery
Marlins reliever Matt Barnes will undergo femoral acetabular impingement surgery on his left hip at the end of the month, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays (on Twitter). He won’t be cleared to begin running or throwing for three months, so his season is almost certainly over.
The surgery also quite likely puts an end to Barnes’ tenure with Miami. Acquired in a trade that sent lefty Richard Bleier to the Red Sox, the former Boston closer was seen as a buy-low candidate by a Marlins club looking for high-leverage arms in the offseason. Barnes was an All-Star in 2021 and looked headed for a significant payday in free agency when he instead signed a two-year extension to remain in Boston. Things almost immediately went south after he put pen to paper on that $18.75MM deal. In the season’s final six weeks, he was rocked for a dozen runs in just 11 2/3 innings.
The Sox hoped Barnes would bounce back the following season, but things didn’t play out that way. A shoulder injury cost Barnes more than two months of the season, and while his 4.31 ERA when healthy was at least respectable, it’s a far cry from what the Sox hoped for when signing him to that two-year pact. Beyond that, Barnes’ 95.2 mph average fastball and 19.3% strikeout rate were both career-lows — a far cry from the 97 mph he averaged at his peak and the 37.8% strikeout rate he posted in 2021.
In Miami, Barnes pitched 21 1/3 but was tagged for a 5.48 ERA in that time. This year’s 93.6 mph average fastball is a career-low by a wide margin of 1.6 mph. His 7.7% swinging-strike rate is one of the lowest marks among relievers and about half the 14.9% he recorded at his best. The revelation of an injury hardly came as a major surprise given those stark declines, and it’s fair to wonder whether Barnes was ever pitching at 100% this season or whether he was simply trying to gut through the injury.
There’s an $8MM club option for the 2024 season on Barnes’ contract, and although the $2.25MM buyout effectively makes it a net $5.75MM decision, it’s still extremely unlikely the Marlins would pick that third year up. Given the extent of Barnes’ struggles in recent years and now the onset of a notable surgery, he’ll likely be bought out and head to free agency, where he’ll either be a candidate for a low-cost, incentive-laden one-year contract or perhaps even a minor league deal. The status of his recovery will play a large role in determining his earning power, and it obviously can’t be known at this time precisely how it’ll all play out.
Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Dodgers are among the teams showing interest in White Sox righty Lucas Giolito, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a natural fit, given the Dodgers’ need for rotation reinforcements and the White Sox’ status as likely sellers of short-term pieces. Giolito is a free agent at season’s end.
Giolito, who’ll turn 29 tomorrow, figures to be of interest to a wide variety of contending clubs. He’s in the midst of a strong season, is earning a $10.4MM salary this season, and has a strong track record dating back to his 2019 breakout. Similarly, the Dodgers figure to cast a wide net as they survey the trade market for starting pitching help. While it’s certainly of note that they’ve shown some interest in Giolito, there’s also no indication that there have been any advanced talks for the righty or that he, in particular, is being pursued more aggressively than the many other starters expected to popular the trade market. In some regards, it’d actually be more surprising to learn that the Dodgers weren’t interested in Giolito, given how logical the pairing is.
Los Angeles’ starting staff has been ravaged by injuries this season. The Dodgers have already lost Dustin May for the season (flexor surgery), and they’ve endured lengthy absences from each of Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and struggling offseason signee Noah Syndergaard. Prospect Ryan Pepiot won the fifth starter’s job in camp this spring but suffered an oblique injury at the end of camp that has kept him out for the entire first half. Ace Clayton Kershaw hit the injured list late last month due to discomfort in his left shoulder. They knew coming into the year that Walker Buehler would be out until at least September after undergoing Tommy John surgery on Aug. 23 last summer.
The Dodgers have tapped into their pitching-rich system to patch things over, already calling up top prospects Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone for their big league debuts. Miller and Sheehan are both in the rotation at the moment, as is 26-year-old righty Michael Grove, who entered the ’23 season with just 29 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Grove has been tagged for a 6.89 ERA, however, struggling at a similar level to the previously mentioned Syndergaard (7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings).
Giolito isn’t missing bats at the same level as his 2019-20 peak, when he posted a massive 32.7% strikeout rate, but his results are in line with his best prior seasons. He’s sitting on a 3.45 ERA with a strong 25.3% strikeout rate and similarly impressive 7.4% walk rate. With the exception of last year’s 4.90 ERA, which looks like a clear outlier, Giolito has posted an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53 every season since 2019. Overall, he carries a 3.80 ERA in his past 701 2/3 big league innings. The right-hander is also averaging just under six innings per start in 2023, so he’d help give a break to the bullpen of any team to which he’s traded.
The White Sox figure to seek a strong return in any trade for Giolito. He’s one of the top arms on the market — arguably the top arm — and is a clear qualifying offer candidate at season’s end if they don’t trade him. As a 29-year-old free agent with a strong and durable track record, Giolito would be a slam dunk to reject that offer and hit the open market in search of a long-term, likely nine-figure deal. In the event that he signed elsewhere, the White Sox would receive a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B in the 2024 draft (roughly in the mid-70s). In order to trade the righty, the ChiSox would need to feel they’re receiving greater value than the value of that theoretical 2024 draft selection.
Giolito recently landed in the top spot on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates — a reflection both of his on-field value and of the simple likelihood of him being traded in the next 19 days. (He also placed fourth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings late last month.) The South Siders initially only planned to make rental players available, but recent reports have suggested that they’re now open to offers on the majority of their roster, save for the young core of Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn. In either scenario, Giolito figures to be available and among the likeliest stars to change hands in the next few weeks.
A’s To Promote Tyler Soderstrom
The A’s are promoting top catching/first base prospect Tyler Soderstrom before Friday’s game against the Twins, MLBTR has confirmed. The call-up was first reported by Christopher Correa of the Turlock Journal.
Oakland selected Soderstrom with the 26th overall pick out of a California high school in 2020. The left-handed hitter was regarded as a bat-first catcher on draft day. He’s lived up to that profile in the minors, hitting .272/.333/.525 in 260 professional games.
Soderstrom has been a top young talent for the past couple seasons. He participated in the Futures Game in 2021 (which he did again last weekend) and ranked among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects the following year. Soderstrom traversed three minor league levels last season, hitting .267/.324/.501 while spending the majority of his time in High-A.
He’s spent the entire 2023 campaign with Triple-A Las Vegas. Soderstrom has popped 20 home runs and slugged .536 in 69 games in that extremely hitter-friendly environment. He’s posted middling strikeout and walk numbers, drawing free passes just 6.6% of the time against an elevated 27.6% strikeout percentage. His .303 on-base percentage is last among the 68 hitters with 200+ plate appearances in the Pacific Coast League.
Of course, the 21-year-old was generally facing pitching much older than him at the top minor league level. Heading into the season, Soderstrom was on the Top 100 lists at all of BA, The Athletic, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Scouting reports are effusive in their praise for his offensive ability. Soderstrom is credited with one of the best hit/power combinations of any player in the minor leagues.
The biggest question, as has been the case since draft day, is his eventual position. Prospect evaluators suggest he’s a well below-average receiving catcher who’s likely to move off the position. That’s before considering the presence of Shea Langeliers, whom the A’s have used behind the dish as their potential long-term replacement for Sean Murphy.
Soderstrom has split his time between catcher and first base with Las Vegas this season. He’s gotten 35 starts behind the plate, 24 nods at first base and nine outings as a designated hitter. Catcher and first are the only positions he’s played in pro ball, though both Baseball America and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested he could be athletic enough to handle third base or the corner outfield if he doesn’t catch regularly.
A’s skipper Mark Kotsay will presumably find ways to get Soderstrom in the lineup on an everyday basis. He could take some starts from Langeliers while working in at first base or DH. Rule 5 draftee Ryan Noda is having a strong rookie campaign and will presumably play whichever of first base or DH that Soderstrom isn’t manning. Brent Rooker and Seth Brown seem likely to take most of their reps in the corner outfield.
There haven’t been many causes for celebration for A’s fans this season. Friday’s game will offer the fanbase and organization a glimpse of what they hope is a more exciting future. Soderstrom joins 2021 second-round selection Zack Gelof in getting his first MLB nod. Gelof isn’t quite the caliber of prospect Soderstrom is, but they’re both generally regarded among the top handful of young talents in the organizational pipeline.
Because he appeared on the preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, Soderstrom would be eligible for a full year of service time if he can squeeze out a top-two finish in AL Rookie of the Year balloting. That’s a tall task with less than half a season’s worth of playing time, however. It’s likely he’ll end up shy of a full service year; in that case, he wouldn’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2026 season and is controllable through 2029. Future assignments to the minor leagues could push that back further.
The A’s have one opening on the 40-man roster after waiving right-hander Adam Oller this week. They’ll need to create another vacancy to select the contracts of both Gelof and Soderstrom.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Mozeliak: Cardinals’ Deadline Focus Will Be On 2024 Club
The Cardinals came into 2023 with hopes of contending, as they generally always do. The club has finished below .500 just once this century, back in 2007, and has qualified for the playoff in each of the past four seasons. Unfortunately, things haven’t been trending their way this year, with the Cards currently 38-52 and in last place in the National League Central.
A few weeks ago, the club’s president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke about how the club hadn’t yet made any concrete decisions about how to approach the deadline. But those plans seem to have firmed up recently, with Mozeliak speaking with Martin Kilcoyne of The Kilcoyne Conversation at Scoops with Danny Mac, discussing how the club is planning to make moves aimed at improving the 2024 roster.
Mozeliak says that the club won’t be “waving the white flag” but admits that “all decisions or all moves we do really will try to set us up for next year.” He goes on to say that they won’t just give players away but that they “want to get some return that’s going to help us for 2024 and that’s going to be, really, our focus as we enter the trading period.” He also admitted that there’s not really such a thing as a player who’s “untouchable” because anything can happen, but also states that “The fact is we hope we can keep our core together and then, you know, supplement it properly.”
To hear him take such a stance is hardly surprising, given their current place in the standings. They are 11.5 games out in the division and 11 back of the final Wild Card spot right now. FanGraphs currently pegs their playoff odds at just 6.3%. A hot streak between the All-Star break and the deadline could change those odds, but it seems the club is accepting that their best path forward is to make decisions with their eyes set on a fresh start next year.
The club could have also considered committing to a more significant rebuild with their sights set even further into the future, but there are reasons why it makes sense to take a more measured approach. The club came into this year with a strong roster than many predicted to win the division and that could easily be true of 2024 as well, especially since every position player on the club is still under club control for next year. The pitching staff is a different story, but some modest selling could still leave the club with a solid core for next year.
There’s also the fact that this year’s deadline seems to be lining up to be a seller’s market, with so many clubs still hovering near contention thanks to the expanded postseason and some weaker divisions. By staking out some space in the seller column, the Cards could quickly add some controllable talent to the system and then figure out how to proceed in the offseason.
In terms of impending free agents, the club will have plenty of players to shop around. Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are each slated to reach free agency this winter and should garner plenty of interest, especially with pitching always in demand around the league. Montgomery has a long track record of solid production and is having arguably his best season to date, with a 3.23 ERA that would be a personal best. Flaherty’s 4.27 ERA isn’t quite as impressive but he’s shown better upside in the past, including his 2.75 ERA in 2019. Relievers Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks are each having nice seasons and could also be flipped before they reach free agency in a few months’ time.
Since those aforementioned players are all rentals, moving them wouldn’t hurt the 2024 club in any way. The Cards could potentially hang onto to them and issue them qualifying offers in order to receive compensatory draft picks, though Mozeliak admitted that “Our hope is we can get more than just the pick, and so that will be what we try to do.” That also tracks with the club’s aims of continuing to compete in 2024, as they could recoup players close to helping at the major league level, whereas a draft pick wouldn’t be likely to help the club until years down the line.
There’s also an argument to be made that the Cards could trade some controllable position players in a way that helps the 2024 club. They have plenty of outfielders in the mix, including Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Tyler O’Neill and Alec Burleson, while infielders like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have also been pushed into the outfield of late as Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman have regularly taken the middle infield spots. One of the club’s top prospects, shortstop Masyn Winn, is in Triple-A this year and should be due for a major league audition at some point. Other depth options on the 40-man include Juan Yepez, Moises Gomez and Richie Palacios. The club also has Iván Herrera, a valuable catching prospect, who is currently blocked by Willson Contreras.
That’s quite the crowded picture and the Cards could perhaps decide which players they like best while moving a few others while still having a solid group overall. However, those kinds of decisions aren’t always easy to make, as the club has seen in recent years. Mozeliak admitted that the club made mistakes in letting go of players like Randy Arozarena and Adolis García while sticking with guys like O’Neill and Harrison Bader.
It’s easy to make those kinds of calls with the benefit of hindsight, but the Cards may have to make some tough decisions again, especially in order to improve the pitching staff. With Montgomery, Flaherty, Hicks and Stratton on their way to free agency and Adam Wainwright set to retire, there are plenty of holes to fill on the pitching side of things. Some of the remaining options are also questionable, with Mozeliak admitting the club didn’t get what they expected from pitchers like Dakota Hudson and Matthew Liberatore this year.
As for the coaching, Mozeliak doesn’t lay any blame at the foot of second-year manager Oli Marmol. “I don’t think the coaches have any fault in this,” Mozeliak said. “They are handed the players. Unfortunately, it didn’t work. But I think Oli and his group do a really good job. They work really hard. And, you know, they continue to do that. But their level of frustration is probably as real as the fan base.” Marmol’s first season at the helm resulted in a 93-69 record and a division title. The results haven’t been there this season but it seems like he’s likely to get another shot with a different roster next year.
Exactly how the Cards navigate the deadline will undoubtedly be influenced by what kind of conversations they have with other clubs in the weeks to come, but it seems like they have settled on a broad plan of making whatever decisions will help the club next year. That likely means impending free agents will be available and perhaps other players as well. This year’s trade deadline is August 1, now less than three weeks away.
Brown: Astros Prioritizing Rotation Help
Astros general manager Dana Brown hasn’t been shy about his desire to add a left-handed bat to his lineup, publicly calling that his front office’s focus as recently as two weeks ago. However, asked this morning during his weekly appearance on 790 AM’s Sean Salisbury Show where he’d make an upgrade if he could only improve at one spot on his roster, the first-year GM changed course and suggested it’d be in the rotation (link contains full audio of the 11-minute interview).
“With the pitchers that we’ve had going down, it could put us in a situation where we come up short or we don’t get to that next round of the playoffs,” said Brown. “A good arm would be really, really helpful. … The problem is, there are not many good arms out there.”
[Related: Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates]
Houston has seen more than its share of rotation injuries in 2023. Lance McCullers Jr. won’t pitch this year after undergoing flexor tendon surgery, and the ‘Stros have also lost fellow righty Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery. Jose Urquidy has been out since late April due to a shoulder injury. And, since Brown’s last comments about prioritizing a bat, he’s revealed that ace Framber Valdez has been pitching through an ankle sprain. Meanwhile, right-hander Cristian Javier has been slumping (22 runs in his past 21 1/3 innings) and had his spot in the rotation skipped over leading into the break. Brown indicated this morning that Javier simply “needed a breather” and gave no indication that the right-hander is dealing with any sort of injury.
As it stands, the Astros are leaning on Valdez (ostensibly at less than 100%), Brandon Bielak and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France. Presumably, Javier will slot back into the rotation early in the second half. Houston has taken a look at right-handers Ronel Blanco and Shawn Dubin in the rotation, too. By and large, it’s a group of inexperienced starters. Outside of Brown, none of the rookies were considered particularly high-end prospects. Each of Brown, Bielak, France and Dubin is already approaching his 2022 innings total; Blanco has already exceeded last year’s workload. Urquidy has not yet begun a minor league rehab assignment.
Even with those injuries and workload concerns, Houston starters rank fourth in the Majors with a 3.74 ERA. Valdez’s outstanding year plays a large role in that collective figure, but Houston’s in-house rotation reinforcements have undeniably done a nice job in keeping the team afloat. With each rapidly approaching last year’s innings tally and with Valdez at least somewhat banged up, it’s natural to hear Brown express a desire to bolster the group.
In prior comments, Brown made clear that he’s not interested in parting with the top prospects in his system in exchange for rental players. Pitchers controlled beyond the current season could potentially fall into a different category, and if there are teams willing to put controllable arms up for sale, the Astros could be more apt to part with higher-end talent. Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Michael Lorenzen are among the rental arms expected to be available, while more controllable trade candidates include Shane Bieber and Paul Blackburn. Righties Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn both have team options for the 2024 season, though Lynn could be trending toward a buyout. Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez have opt-out opportunities this winter, so they’ll be treated as rentals, at best, by interested parties.
Yankees Name Sean Casey Hitting Coach
4:25pm: The Yankees have officially announced Casey’s hiring.
11:37am: Heyman tweets that Casey has agreed to take on the role for the remainder of the 2023 season. Presumably, these next few months will serve as a trial run for a potentially longer stint in the position, but the short-term nature of Casey’s agreement also creates the possibility that there will be another search conducted in the offseason.
11:33am: The Yankees dismissed hitting coach Dillon Lawson over the weekend, and they’ve wasted little time in zeroing in on a replacement. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that they’ll hire former All-Star first baseman and current MLB Network personality Sean Casey as Lawson’s successor. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported that Casey was under “strong” consideration for the position (Twitter links).
Casey, 49, is something of an outside-the-box hire, as he’s never worked as a coach at the minor league or major league level since ending his 12-year playing career in 2008. The three-time All-Star has been working as a broadcaster and analyst on the MLB Network for the past several years. In that sense, there are some parallels between his hiring and that of manager Aaron Boone — another former player who went straight from broadcasting back into a big league dugout. Boone and Casey were teammates with the Reds from 1998 through 2003, when Boone was traded to the Yankees. That familiarity surely plays a role in the decision to consider and ultimately hire Casey despite his lack of experience coaching.
While Casey is new to coaching, he certainly knows a thing or two about hitting. The former second-round pick retired as a .302/.367/.447 hitter and had just a 10.2% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 5644 big league plate appearances. Casey made the NL All-Star team in 1999, 2001 and 2004, and he finished out his career with 130 home runs, 322 doubles and 12 triples.
Casey’s background couldn’t be much different from that of his predecessor. Lawson didn’t play baseball professionally, going directly from college ball to the college coaching ranks and eventually coaching in the Royals’ system before being hired away by the Yankees. After a couple years as the organization’s minor league hitting coordinator, Lawson was elevated to the major league hitting coach position following the ’21 campaign, though his time in that spot ultimately lasted just one and a half seasons.
In addition to his dozen years playing at the big league level, Casey has spent considerable time interacting with and building a rapport with current players through his work on MLB Network. “The Mayor” is known for a gregarious and jovial personality. At the very least, one can imagine he’ll have little trouble connecting with the Yankees’ players and fitting in from a clubhouse perspective. The rest of the season will be used to determine both his coaching acumen, his appetite for returning to the dugout on a long-term basis, and whether Yankees decision-makers feel he’s equipped to handle the position in 2024 and beyond.