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Dodgers To Sign Danny Duffy

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March 19: Jon Heyman of MLB Network provides the details on the contract, with Duffy making $3MM this year. Next year’s option is valued at $7MM but can be increased based on Duffy’s performance this year. Duffy will add $500K by pitching in 5, 10 and then 15 games in 2022, as well as for throwing 5, 10 and 15 innings, a total of $3MM, increasing the value of the option to $10MM. If that option were to be picked up, Duffy could earn an extra $6MM in incentives next year: $750K for reaching each tier of 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings pitched, as well as $1MM for reaching each of 140, 150 and 160 frames.

March 17: The Dodgers continue to bolster their roster via free agency, reportedly agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with Danny Duffy. The contract, which is pending a physical, also contains a club option for the 2023 season. Duffy is an ACES client.

It marks a return to Southern California for the left-hander, whom the Dodgers acquired from the Royals in advance of last summer’s trade deadline. Duffy, unfortunately, never could take the field in Dodger blue. At the time of the trade, he was on the injured list with a flexor strain in his forearm. The hope had been that he could return late in the season for a club that was obviously headed to the playoffs, but that proved not to be. He suffered a setback in early September and was shut down for the year.

That setback will prevent him from making his team debut for at least a few more months. After the season, Duffy told Andy McCullough of the Athletic he underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in October. As of the time of that early-December conversation, Duffy was targeting a June return to a big league mound. He conceded it was likely he’d work in relief this year as a means of keeping his innings in check before lengthening back out into a rotation role in 2023 and beyond.

Whatever role he takes on, a healthy Duffy figures to be a boon to the Dodgers pitching staff. Before his 2021 season was derailed, the 33-year-old was off to a nice start with the Royals. He’d worked 61 innings with a stellar 2.51 ERA. His peripherals weren’t quite so superlative, but he posted quality strikeout and walk numbers (25.8% and 8.7%, respectively) and owned a capable 4.14 SIERA.

Prior to last summer’s trade, Duffy had spent his entire career with Kansas City. A former third-round draftee, he cemented himself as a valuable member of the rotation by their pennant-winning 2014 season. Over a four-year run from 2014-17, he pitched to a 3.47 ERA/3.87 FIP in 612 innings. That included 136 2/3 frames of 4.08 ERA ball for the World Series-winning club in 2015.

Beginning in 2018, Duffy’s production began to tick downward. His walk and home run rates both increased, and he posted an ERA north of 4.00 in each season. His fastball velocity, which had averaged nearly 96 MPH at his peak, dropped to a bit more than 92 MPH by 2019-20. Last season, before he went down with injury, Duffy’s arm speed bounced back somewhat. His heater came in at 93.7 MPH on average, and Duffy’s swing-and-miss rates saw a corresponding spike. Last year’s 13.6% swinging strike rate was a personal high, more than two percentage points above the league mark for starters.

That intrigued the L.A. front office enough they traded for him last summer, and their interest is apparently continued. That Duffy won’t be ready until midseason is less of a concern for the Dodgers than it might be for other clubs around the league, since Los Angeles looks as good a bet as any to be playing meaningful games late in the year. Even if he’s forced to work in relief, Duffy could be a valuable option for skipper Dave Roberts down the stretch and into potential postseason play. For his career, he’s held opposing left-handed hitters to a meager .218/.277/.318 line. That could make Duffy a particular weapon if leveraged into more favorable match-ups in shorter stints.

Specific terms of the deal aren’t yet known, although the presence of the club option would seem to give Los Angeles further long-term upside. The Dodgers signed Jimmy Nelson, himself rehabbing from elbow surgery, to a one-year deal with a 2023 option earlier this week. Duffy presumably secured a loftier guarantee than Nelson’s $700K salary, but the pacts follow a similar logic of giving the Dodgers a shot at a late-season run from a talented but currently injured hurler with the chance to keep him in the fold for a second season.

The Dodgers have been aggressive in recent days as they look to cement themselves as the team to beat in the National League. They reunited with Clayton Kershaw last week, then agreed to terms with Freddie Freeman on a six-year contract last night. Those deals pushed the team’s 2022 luxury tax tab north of $277MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Because they exceeded the CBT last season, the Dodgers will be subject to escalating fees as a second-time payor. They’ll be taxed at a 30% rate for every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM, a 42% clip on overages between $250MM and $270MM, a 75% rate on overages between $270MM and $290MM and a 90% tax on all expenditures north of $290MM.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Dodgers and Duffy were nearing agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported they had reached an agreement on a one-year deal with a 2023 option, which Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic specified was a club option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs To Sign Jonathan Villar

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March 19: The latest breakdown from Feinsand marks the deal as a $4.5MM base with a $1.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2023 season. There are also $500K in incentives tied to the 2022 season.

March 17: The Cubs have reached an agreement with free-agent infielder Jonathan Villar, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. The ACES client’s contract is pending the completion of a physical. Villar’s deal with the Cubs is worth $6MM, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The one-year deal also includes a mutual option for the 2023 season and performance incentives that can boost that $6MM base, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

Jonathan Villar

Villar, 30, spent the 2021 season with the Mets, where he put together a solid .249/.322/.416 showing with 18 home runs, 18 doubles, a pair of triples and a 14-for-21 showing in the stolen-base department. That marked the second straight season of solid production at the dish for the switch-hitting Villar, who also slashed .274/.339/.453 with 24 long balls and 40 stolen bases as a member of the Orioles.

Unfortunately for Villar, that pair of above-average seasons at the plate bookended a disastrous 2020 showing that has hampered his earning power in free agency to some extent. Splitting the 2020 campaign between Miami and Toronto, Villar posted a combined .232/.301/.292 line through 207 trips to the plate. Small sample or not, that marked the least-productive year of what is now a nine-year career as a big leaguer — and it came on the cusp of Villar’s first venture into free-agent waters.

The Cubs’ infield picture is largely up in the air at the moment, so it’s not yet clear just where Villar will slot in. He’s capable of playing second base, third base and shortstop, though he’s better suited for the former two positions than the latter. The Cubs are hopeful that former No. 4 overall pick Nick Madrigal, acquired from the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel at last year’s trade deadline, will be able to step up as their everyday second baseman. Madrigal, however, is recovering from surgery to repair a full tear of his hamstring last year, so it’s not a given that he’ll hit the ground running.

At third base, the Cubs currently look like they’ll rely primarily on journeyman Patrick Wisdom. Although Wisdom came out of nowhere to smash 28 home runs last season and post a .231/.305/.518 (115 wRC+) batting line as a rookie, he did so while striking out in a staggering 40.8% of his plate appearances. He can’t be counted upon to repeat last year’s surprising power display if he’s going to continue striking out at a near-41% pace, and Villar will give Chicago some cover at the hot corner if Wisdom takes a step back.

Looking to shortstop, the Cubs will hand things over to veteran Andrelton Simmons. The longtime Braves and Angels defensive standout struggled through an awful year at the plate in his lone season with the Twins last year (.223/.283./274) but remains one of the sport’s best gloves. He’ll probably log the lion’s share of innings at shortstop as he searches for a rebound to prior levels of offense.

Villar can back up any of the three positions, and the Cubs still have former first-round pick Nico Hoerner as an option to fill in around the infield as well. Hoerner, much like Madrigal has virtually no power but possesses excellent bat-to-ball skills and a sharp eye at the plate (14.7% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate in 2021). Each of Madrigal, Simmons, Wisdom and Hoerner hits right-handed, so Villar’s switch-hitting bat gives manager David Ross some more flexibility and additional matchup options.

Cubs To Sign Drew Smyly

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The Cubs and starter Drew Smyly are in agreement on a one-year contract with a mutual option for a second year. The first year carries a $4.25MM base with a $1MM buyout on a 2023 mutual option. Smyly, then, is guaranteed $5.25MM over one season with an additional $2.5MM available in potential incentives. The two sides were reportedly close to coming to terms on a deal yesterday.

Smyly should actually get the opportunity to take the hill in Cubbie blue this time: he previously signed a backloaded two-year deal with the Cubs when recovering from Tommy John surgery prior to the 2018 season. He spent that year rehabbing with the organization without ever making an in-game appearance.

After the season, the Cubs dealt Smyly to the Rangers in a bit of financial acrobatics. At the time, the Cubs were trying to bring back Cole Hamels, who had a buyout option that Texas was on the hook to pay if the Cubs didn’t accept a team option. The Rangers were basically given the choice of paying Hamels’ $6MM buyout, or taking on Smyly and his $7MM, one-year deal.

The Rangers chose to avoid the dead money and add Smyly to their rotation. Even if Texas’ hand was forced to a certain degree, they needed pitching, and Smyly seemed a fair and affordable bet to rebound from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, he never found his footing with the Rangers, posting a 8.42 ERA across 51 1/3 innings, earning his release in June.

Since then, he’s become a mercenary swingman, finishing the 2019 season with the Phillies, spending the shortened 2020 year with the Giants, and then winning a World Series ring as part of the Braves last season.  Smyly did not make the postseason rotation, but he did appear in three games during the run, including twice in the World Series.

During the regular season, he made 23 starts and appeared in 29 games for the Braves, logging a not-insubstantial 126 2/3 innings with a 4.48 ERA/5.11 FIP. Smyly continued a career trend in keeping the ball in the air with just a 39.2 percent groundball rate in 2021. He recorded a 21.4 percent strikeout rate and 7.5 percent walk rate, both numbers fairly close to average marks for a starting pitcher.

For the Cubs, Smyly can help fill out a rotation that’s improved from last year’s unit, but still facing a number of questions. Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, and Wade Miley make up a veteran front three, but there’s not much beyond that veteran trio, especially with the recent news that Adbert Alzolay will begin the year on the injured list. Smyly becomes the leading candidate for the fourth spot in the rotation, and given the guaranteed money on his deal, he’s a safe bet to at least start the season in the rotation.

Looking over his shoulder, Alec Mills, Steven Brault, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, Cory Abbott, Anderson Espinoza, and Brailyn Marquez are other potential rotation candidates. Down the line, Caleb Kilian, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson, and Alexander Vizcaino are prospects with some pedigree who could play their way into rotation minutes.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) broke the initial news of the deal, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) added the initial financial terms. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided the details of the mutual option.

Angels To Sign Ryan Tepera

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March 19: The Angels have officially announced Tepera’s signing. As a result of the signing, however, Kyle Tyler has been designated for assignment. Tyler, 25, tossed 12 1/3 innings for the Angels in 2021 over five games with a 2.92 ERA. The former 20th-round draft pick logged a 3.66 ERA over 86 innings in Triple-A, mostly pitching out of the rotation.

March 17: The Angels continue to bolster the relief unit, agreeing to terms with Ryan Tepera on a two-year, $14MM deal. It’s the second notable free agent pickup of the day for the Halos, who agreed to terms with Archie Bradley this morning. Tepera is a client of All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Tepera was one of the top relievers remaining on the market. He’d been a capable but mostly nondescript middle innings option for a few seasons in Toronto, but the right-hander has taken his game to new heights since signing with the Cubs in advance of the 2020 season. Tepera worked 20 2/3 innings over 21 appearances during the shortened campaign, posting a 3.92 ERA. That run prevention was mostly in line with his career track record, but he saw a massive uptick in swinging strikes and punchouts.

The Sam Houston State product struck out 34.8% of batters faced in 2020, nearly ten points higher than his previous career-best mark. Among the 141 relievers with 20+ frames that season, Tepera ranked 15th in strikeout percentage, but he was even more effective on a pitch-by-pitch basis. He generated whiffs on an incredible 19.5% of his offerings, a mark that trailed only those of Devin Williams, Tanner Rainey and Edwin Díaz among that same group. Tepera’s results were overshadowed a bit by the accidental MVP vote he received at the end of the year, but he legitimately had an excellent showing for Chicago.

That improvement came in a small sample, however, and it didn’t seem teams around the league completely bought into his new form. Tepera’s fastball continued to sit in its customary 93 MPH range, and while he did lean more liberally on his excellent cutter-slider, the market didn’t reflect that he’d made significant strides. Tepera re-signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $800K guarantee in February.

He mostly doubled down on his new form over a larger body of work last year. Tepera made 43 appearances and worked 43 1/3 innings of 2.91 ERA ball with the Cubs, striking out 30.3% of opponents while cutting his walk rate from 13.5% to 7.3%. As part of their trade deadline teardown, the North Siders flipped him to their crosstown rivals for prospect Bailey Horn, and Tepera continued to excel. He pitched to a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings with the White Sox, fanning 32% of batters faced with a 9.3% walk rate. His 16.3% swinging strike rate was again amongst the league’s best, checking in ninth out of 138 relievers to work 50+ innings.

At 34 years old, Tepera was always a long shot to land a deal that exceeded two years. Yet his back-to-back seasons of strong performance earned him a multi-year pact at a $7MM annual rate. If evenly distributed over the two seasons, that’ll push the Angels’ projected payroll to around $186MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That nudges ahead of last year’s $181MM franchise-record Opening Day expenditure. Their luxury tax ledger will jump to around $202MM — still well shy of this year’s $230MM base threshold.

Los Angeles has invested heavily in the bullpen this winter. They re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias to a four-year contract and have added each of Bradley, Tepera and southpaw Aaron Loup via free agency. They’ll join in-house options like Mike Mayers and Austin Warren as late-game possibilities for manager Joe Maddon.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the Angels and Tepera were working on a deal. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported an agreement had been reached. MLBTR’s Steve Adams was first to report it was a two-year, $14MM pact.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tigers Sign Michael Pineda

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March 19: The Tigers have officially announced the deal with a press release. Pineda may be delayed in joining the club, however, as he works to solve issues relating to his visa, per Chris McCosky (via Twitter). Whether or not he’ll be ready to start the reason remains up in the air.

That matters for Pineda, whose contract includes a number of innings bonuses, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Pineda will receive $375K for hitting each of the 50, 75, 100, and 125 inning benchmarks, and he would receive an additional $500K for tossing 150 and 175 innings. In total, that amounts to an extra $2.5MM that he could add to the $5.5MM base sum.

March 18: The Tigers have fortified the back of their rotation, reportedly agreeing to terms with Michael Pineda on a one-year, $5.5MM guarantee. The deal, which is pending a physical, also contains another $2.5MM in possible incentives. Pineda is a client of ISE Baseball.

Detroit has ben searching for additional rotation help in recent days. General manager Al Avila acknowledged they made an unsuccessful run at Zack Greinke before he signed with the division-rival Royals. The Tigers were linked to Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, both of whom the A’s have made available via trade. Avila implied yesterday that the Detroit front office might not meet the A’s ask on those two starters, though, and it seems they’ve instead pivoted to Pineda.

Tigers fans have seen plenty of the big right-hander over the past few years. Pineda has spent the last three seasons with the Twins, generally offering capable if not overwhelming production. He worked 282 cumulative innings with Minnesota, pitching to a 3.80 ERA while holding opponents to a .257/.296/.428 slash line. Pineda’s 21.6% strikeout rate in that time was a bit below the league mark, but he only walked 4.8% of batters faced and generally did well to keep the ball in the park.

Pineda’s availability was a bit spotty during his Twins tenure. He had four injured list stints between 2019 and 2021, although none of those stays on the shelf lasted more than a month. He also missed some time late in 2019 and early in 2020 serving a suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. When able to take the mound, Pineda generally performed alright. Last season, he tossed 109 1/3 frames in 22 appearances (21 starts), pitching to a 3.62 ERA.

That came with a career-worst 19.2% strikeout percentage, though. Pineda also averaged a personal-low 90.9 MPH on his fastball and had the lowest swinging strike rate (10.5%) of his eight-year big league career. That seemingly contributed to a lack of leaguewide interest at last summer’s trade deadline, as the Twins held onto Pineda all year despite moving a few players in July amidst a disappointing season.

Pineda’s stock isn’t as high as it had been earlier in his career, but it’s still a plenty sensible dice roll for the Tigers. Detroit has a top four of Eduardo Rodriguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning, but the final rotation spot remained up in the air. Swingman Tyler Alexander and non-roster invitees Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta seemed the likeliest candidates for the #5 spot heading into today. Pineda’s signing will presumably push Alexander back into a multi-inning relief role, with Anderson and Peralta competing for depth spots. It’ll also help Detroit brass keep the innings totals of their younger arms in check.

Avila said yesterday the Tigers were prepared to make an offer to Greinke comparable to the $13MM guarantee he received from the Royals. It doesn’t come as much surprise they had enough in the coffers to put less than half that on the table for Pineda. Detroit’s projected player payroll is up to around $129MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above where they’ve been in recent seasons as they’ve been firmly amidst a rebuild, but it’s nowhere near the franchise-record levels of years past (or the luxury tax thresholds). How far owner Chris Ilitch is willing to push isn’t clear, but it stands to reason there may still be some room for the front office to explore further additions.

Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press first reported the Tigers were in agreement with Pineda on a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network was first to report the financial terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers Sign Freddie Freeman

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March 19: The year-by-year breakdown of Freeman’s contract have come in, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). The deal breaks down evenly over the six years, with Freeman set to make $27MM every season from 2022 through 2027. The deal includes $7MM of deferred money in 2022-24, and $12MM deferred in 2025-27.

March 18: The Dodgers have made the signing official, announcing that Freeman signed a six-year contract through the 2027 season. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports (on Twitter) that $57MM of the $162MM guarantee is being deferred, to be paid between 2028-40. Feinsand suggests that brings the real present value of the contract closer to $140MM.

March 16: The Dodgers are adding another star, reportedly agreeing to terms with Freddie Freeman on a six-year, $162MM contract. The Excel Sports Management client finds the sixth guaranteed year he’d been seeking, setting himself up to bolster an already loaded lineup.

Los Angeles finished tied for third as a team in wRC+ last season (excluding pitchers), with their collective .251/.339/.446 mark checking in 13 percentage points above the league average offense. Only the Astros and Giants fared better, while L.A. was tied with the Blue Jays. They’ve lost Corey Seager to free agency this winter, but Freeman steps right into the void as a left-handed, middle-of-the-order bat for manager Dave Roberts.

One could argue Freeman’s even an offensive upgrade over Seager, who himself is one of the best hitters in the game. Freeman has been a consistently excellent bat, not having posted a wRC+ lower than 132 in any season since 2013. That run has earned him five All-Star nods, three Silver Slugger Awards and six top ten finishes in NL MVP balloting.

Freeman has remained at the top of his game over the past few seasons. He obliterated opposing pitchers to the tune of a .341/.462/.640 line during the 60-game season in 2020. Among qualified hitters, only Juan Soto fared better by measure of wRC+, and Freeman earned a resounding victory in that year’s Senior Circuit MVP balloting. It was never realistic to expect him to repeat that kind of otherworldly performance over a full schedule, but he returned to his metronomically consistent ways in 2021.

Over the course of the season, Freeman appeared in 159 games and tallied 695 plate appearances of .300/.393/.503 hitting. He popped 31 homers, drew walks at a robust 12.2% clip and only struck out in 15.4% of his trips to the plate. Freeman began the year with a relatively pedestrian start by his lofty standards, but he got scorching hot from June onwards. Over the season’s final four months, he raked at a .329/.404/.520 clip. That production helped carry the Braves to their fourth straight division title, and Freeman picked up where he left off when the lights were brightest. He posted an OPS of .996 or better in all three playoff rounds, helping Atlanta to their first World Series title since 1995.

Coming off that championship, many expected Atlanta would strike quickly to ink the career-long Brave to another deal. Freeman and the club had already lined up on an extension once, a February 2014 eight-year pact that guaranteed him $135MM and delayed his first trip to the open market by five years. The Braves maintained they had interest in keeping Freeman in the fold, but the first baseman’s desire for a sixth year quickly became a stumbling block.

Atlanta, which had made Freeman a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, reportedly put forth a five-year proposal in the $135MM range. It’s believed they eventually nudged the guarantee around $140MM, but the organization seemed opposed to putting a sixth year on the table. Freeman turned 32 years old in September, and Braves brass apparently had real reservations about guaranteeing him a notable salary through his age-37 campaign.

Throughout the lockout, industry chatter picked up that Freeman and the Braves might be heading their separate ways. That became all but official when Atlanta struck a deal to acquire A’s star Matt Olson on Monday afternoon, then signed him to a $168MM extension the next day. Freeman penned a farewell to his former teammates, coaches and the Atlanta fanbase on Instagram this afternoon.

It’s not hard to see the Braves reasoning for letting Freeman walk. Olson is more than four years younger, so his extension only takes him through his age-35 season. There’s real risk in committing to any player into his late 30’s, and that’s particularly true given that Freeman needs to continue to hit at a very high level to be an elite player. He’s a solid defensive first baseman but unlikely to be a perennial Gold Glove winner into his mid-30’s.

Recent six-plus year contracts for free agents at the position haven’t been particularly fruitful. Each of the past four deals of six-plus years for first basemen — the Padres’ eight-year Eric Hosmer agreement, the Orioles’ bringing back Chris Davis on a seven-year pact, Prince Fielder’s nine-year contract with the Tigers, and the Angels’ ten-year investment in Albert Pujols — turned out to be missteps for the club.

Of course, that’s not to say Freeman’s deal with Los Angeles will end the same way. It’s shorter than those precedents, for one, and Freeman has a much more consistent track record than either Hosmer or Davis did at the time they signed their deals. There’s essentially nothing to nitpick in his offensive profile. Freeman doesn’t chase many pitches, and he makes plenty of contact on offerings both inside and outside the strike zone. He posts high-end exit velocities and hard contact rates annually. As is the case with most left-handed hitters, he’s better against right-handed pitching. Yet Freeman’s career .266/.348/.436 mark against southpaws demonstrates he’s more than capable of holding his own without the platoon advantage.

Even after the Braves dropped out, a few teams remained involved in the running for his services. The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Padres were superficially tied to Freeman in recent days, but it seems the surprising Rays may have proven one of the Dodgers strongest challengers in the end. Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets that Tampa Bay made a “strong push” throughout the process, but L.A.’s willingness to acquiesce on the sixth year proved a deal-breaker.

It’s a return to Southern California for Freeman, an Orange County native. In addition to the financial and geographical appeal, he’ll step into a lineup that’s among the best in recent memory. It’s conceivable the Dodgers will roll out an Opening Day lineup consisting of Freeman, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Will Smith, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger and AJ Pollock. Betts, Freeman and Bellinger are each former league MVP’s. Eight of those nine players have garnered at least one All-Star selection; the one player who hasn’t yet gone to the Midsummer Classic, Smith, is among the top handful of catchers in MLB.

The Dodgers have assembled a similarly star-studded pitching staff, and the construction of this kind of roster required a sizable investment from ownership. Los Angeles blew past all three luxury tax tiers last season, incurring nearly $33MM in fees. They’re in line for another huge expenditure this year.

The exact financial structure of Freeman’s deal isn’t yet known, but contracts’ average annual values are used for luxury tax purposes anyhow. Adding $27MM to that mark pushes the 2022 CBT tab north of $277MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Because they exceeded the CBT last season, the Dodgers will be subject to escalating fees as a second-time payor. They’ll be taxed at a 30% rate for every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM, a 42% clip on overages between $250MM and $270MM, a 75% rate on overages between $270MM and $290MM and a 90% tax on all expenditures north of $290MM.

In addition to the financial cost, the Dodgers will take on some non-monetary penalties for signing a player who had rejected a qualifying offer. Because they paid the luxury tax last year, they’ll lose their second-highest and fifth-highest picks in the upcoming draft and be stripped of $1MM in international signing bonus space. The Braves, as a team that neither received revenue sharing nor paid the luxury tax, will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B in the upcoming draft. Those selections typically fall in the 70-75 overall range.

That pick will be little consolation to Braves fans disheartened by Freeman’s departure, although that the organization replaced him with a hometown star of their own in Olson should soften the blow. Even when it became clear he’d be leaving Atlanta, however, there were presumably many Braves fans hoping he’d wind up somewhere other than L.A.

Freeman moves on from the reigning World Series winner to join the team he played an instrumental role in defeating in last year’s NL Championship Series. His departure from the defending champs to sign on with what appears to be MLB’s best team adds plenty of intrigue to what’ll be an entertaining battle for control in the National League.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the Dodgers and Freeman were making progress on a deal that would guarantee $150+MM. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the sides were discussing a six-year deal in the $160MM range. Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Freeman and the Dodgers were in agreement on a six-year, $162MM contract.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Trevor Story Reportedly Choosing Among Four Teams

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TODAY: Story has “multiple new suitors” as of this morning, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network  (via Twitter). The Twins’ signing of Carlos Correa last night could certainly prompt some new conversations now that Story is the last of the big names on the market. Along with the Giants and Red Sox, Heyman names the Rangers, Astros, and Yankees as teams who have potentially opened up conversations with Story.

Heyman adds a few other notes, saying that Story still prefers to play shortstop, though he’s said to be open to a position change. He is also open to a short-term deal in the vein of the one signed by Correa, tweets Heyman.

5:37pm: Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweets that the Red Sox are indeed “firmly” involved in the running for Story.

1:05pm: Free-agent shortstop Trevor Story is mulling opportunities with four teams and expects to make a decision relatively soon, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Both the Giants and Red Sox are in the mix for Story, per Heyman, who notes that the longtime Rockies shortstop is now open to a “short-term” position change, if necessary. That’s a departure from earlier in the winter, when his strong preference was to remain at shortstop. Heyman adds that Story is prioritizing signing with a win-now team.

It’s not clear which other clubs remain in the market, though the Twins and Mariners are among the clubs that have expressed interest throughout the offseason. Minnesota’s interest came to light earlier in the week, after the Twins succeeded in unloading the remainder of Josh Donaldson’s contract in a trade with the Yankees (another rumored Story suitor earlier this winter). The Twins could offer a clear everyday role at shortstop, but if Story is prioritizing a winning club, it’s a bit of a tougher sell for a 73-win Twins club — even if they’ve acquired Sonny Gray and made some other moves signaling a desire to contend in 2022.

The Mariners, meanwhile, hoped to sign Story to play second base earlier in the winter. With Story then apparently set on sticking at shortstop, the M’s acquired Eugenio Suarez alongside Jesse Winker in a deal with the Reds. Suarez and fellow offseason trade acquisition Adam Frazier appear set to man third base and second base, respectively, though ever-active Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto could always look for some further dealings to create more opportunity if he indeed covets Story.

It should be noted that while the words “short-term” don’t necessarily mean that Story is open to a short-term deal just yet. For instance, the general expectation is that Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts will opt out of the final three years of his contract following the 2022 season. Story could technically sign a long-term deal in Boston, play second base for one season, and then slide over as the everyday shortstop if an when Bogaerts departs. That’s an entirely speculative scenario, to be clear, but one that is fairly easy to envision.

As for the Giants, they’ve generally shown an aversion to long-term, nine-figure contracts. Any deal with Story, then, would either require him to take a short-term pact of require an exception to the Farhan Zaidi-led front office’s philosophy on long-term commitments. Were Story willing to change positions, he could slide in at second base in San Francisco and push Tommy La Stella into a versatile utility role. Depending on Evan Longoria’s health, Story could also conceivably spend some time at the hot corner, teaming with Brandon Crawford to form a dynamic left-side defense.

Phillies Sign Nick Castellanos

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11:24pm: The deal does not contain any opt-out clauses, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

10:32pm: It’s a five-year deal worth $100MM, Heyman reports (Twitter link).

10:27pm: The Phillies are in agreement with free agent outfielder Nick Castellanos, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). Jon Heyman of the MLB Network had tweeted shortly beforehand the sides were nearing an agreement. Castellanos is a client of the Boras Corporation.

It’s the second notable strike in three days for the Phillies, who agreed to terms with slugger Kyle Schwarber on a four-year deal on Wednesday. As teams like the Mets and Braves continue to add to their rosters to battle for the top spot in the NL East, the Phils have added two impact bats to the middle of their order.

Castellanos, 30, became a free agent back in November after he exercised an opt-out clause and walked away from the final two years and $34MM remaining on a four-year, $64MM contract with the Reds. The decision was eminently foreseeable, given the strength of his production in Cincinnati. The Reds made Castellanos a qualifying offer, which he naturally rejected, meaning he’d cost the Phillies their second-highest pick and $500K from their international bonus pool. The Reds, meanwhile, will gain a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2022 draft.

Adding Castellanos to a lineup that already includes Schwarber, reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper, All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto, slugger Rhys Hoskins and the steadily productive Jean Segura gives the Phillies the potential for a dominant lineup — particularly if young talents like Alec Bohm and top prospect Bryson Stott can solidify themselves as big league contributors. As a team, the 2021 Phillies were a middle-of-the-pack group, ranking 13th in the Majors in runs scored (706), 15th in home runs (198), 18th in batting average (.240), 13th in on-base percentage (.318), 14th in slugging percentage (.408) and tied for 18th in wRC+ (93).

Castellanos, who’ll presumably split time with Schwarber between left field and the newly created National League designated hitter slot, just wrapped up the finest season of his big league career. In 585 plate appearances with the Reds, he turned in a .309/.362/.576 batting line with a career-high 34 home runs. He doesn’t offer a huge walk rate, but Castellanos strikes out at a lower-than-average rate and is a consistent source of high batting averages and slugging percentages.

Long a steady and productive hitter with his original organization, the Tigers, Castellanos elevated his game to new heights upon being traded to the Cubs in 2019. Since that trade, he’s put together an exceptional .292/.346/.571 batting line with 64 home runs, 70 doubles and three triples in 1052 plate appearances between Chicago and Cincinnati. That production checks in at 34% better than league average, by measure of wRC+, and little about it looks fluky. Castellanos consistently posts hard-hit rates north of 40% and barrel rates north of 10% which, combined with his above-average bat-to-ball skills, leads Statcast to rank him among the game’s leaders in expected batting average and expected slugging percentage on an annual basis.

Of course, adding Castellanos to an already defensively challenged team whose signature offseason addition thus far was the defensively challenged Schwarber creates its own concerns. Castellanos has improved his defense in right field since first moving off third base earlier in his career, but he still rates as a well below-average defender in either corner. The 2021 Phillies already ranked last in the Majors in Defensive Runs Saved, and that wasn’t an issue unique to last year’s team. The Phillies have ranked among the worst defensive teams in baseball for more than a half decade now, regularly trotting out subpar defenders and embarking on curious defensive experiments that have not proven fruitful (e.g. Rhys Hoskins in left field).

Bringing Castellanos into the mix won’t fix that longstanding organizational flaw, but it’ll nevertheless transform an already deepened Phillies lineup into one of the more formidable units in the entire National League. Given that the Phils also have a strong rotation — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Ranger Suarez, Kyle Gibson — the hope is that strong starting pitching and a potentially unyielding lineup could carry the day in spite of suspect glovework and a bullpen that has several question marks.

In order to get to that point, the Phils will push their payroll north of the base luxury tax threshold. It’s not yet clear how the money will be distributed, but adding $20MM to the Philadelphia books would push their 2022 payroll to a franchise-record $233+MM level, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The financial distribution is a moot point regarding the luxury tax anyways, as those figures are calculated by summing the average annual values of a team’s commitments.

From a CBT perspective, Castellanos’ $20MM average annual value is the relevant number regardless of how the money is paid out. That’ll push the Phillies’ luxury tax calculation to a bit north of $236MM, according to Roster Resource. That’s above this year’s $230MM base threshold, setting the Phillies up as a tax payor at the moment.

They could try to maneuver back under the tax. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters at the start of the offseason that Didi Gregorius wasn’t guaranteed the starting shortstop job. His deal has a $14MM CBT hit, so finding a taker for that money could be a way to avoid paying the tax. That’d be easier said than done, though; given the season Gregorius just had, Philadelphia would probably have to include some young talent from an already-weak farm system to clear that money.

One could argue the Phils shouldn’t be concerned with the tax at all. As a first-time payor, they’re subject to a 20% tax on any dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM. As things currently stand, they’d be subject to a fee a bit more than $1MM — insignificant money for a club already spending more than $230MM on player payroll. The bigger deterrent to narrowly exceeding the threshold is that the CBA contains escalating penalties for teams that exceed in multiple consecutive seasons.

The Phillies, though, haven’t made the postseason in ten years. That’s the longest active drought in the National League, one the front office and owner John Middleton are anxious to snap. The hiring of Dombrowski — a famously aggressive executive — last offseason signified that ownership was prepared to push some chips in as part of an effort to put a competitive team back on the field. In one of the most impactful moves of his year-plus tenure, he’ll bring in a player with whom he’s quite familiar from their overlapping time with the Tigers.

Aligning with that win-now mentality, the Phillies are content to sacrifice two draft choices to bring Castellanos into the fold. Because Cincinnati made him a qualifying offer, Philadelphia will lose their second-highest and fifth-highest selections in the 2022 draft and $1MM in international bonus pool space as compensation for signing Castellanos.

Time will tell whether the Phillies have done enough to overcome the aforementioned bullpen and defensive concerns in a difficult division. They could continue to try to bolster the roster, with center field, shortstop and third base all standing out as areas of varying concern. Further payroll additions would come with additional tax concerns. The Phillies would pay a 32% tax on any overages between $250MM and $270MM, with higher penalties if they push even beyond that mark. That kind of spending spree seems unlikely, but the Phils have already pushed to levels previously unreached with the franchise in hopes of constructing one of the game’s top offenses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Sign Kenley Jansen

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The Braves have a new closer, as they announced agreement Friday evening with Kenley Jansen on a one-year, $16MM contract. (Atlanta discloses their own contract terms). The Wasserman client had spent his entire career with the Dodgers, but he’s headed to one of the National League’s other powerhouses this season. In order to clear space on the 40-man roster, Atlanta placed reliever Jay Jackson on the 60-day injured list to a right lat strain.

A three-time All-Star and two-time Hoffman Award winner (as the National League’s top reliever), Jansen is one of the best late-game arms in recent memory. The consistently excellent closer has never posted an ERA above 3.75 in his 12-year big league career, and he’s put up an ERA below 3.00 in eight separate seasons.

Jansen remained great last season, pitching to a 2.22 mark in 69 outings. He saved 38 games and struck out a stellar 30.9% of batters faced. That wasn’t quite at the level of his peak — when Jansen was punching out more than two-fifths of opponents while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine — but it was nevertheless among the league’s best production. Among the 138 relievers with 50+ innings pitched, Jansen checked in 15th in ERA and 29th in strikeout percentage. He generated swinging strikes on 15.2% of his pitches, the 22nd-highest mark among that same group.

In addition to his ability to miss bats, Jansen has consistently excelled at limiting hard contact. Possessing an excellent cutter that stays off barrels, he consistently ranks among the league’s best in terms of checking opponents’ exit velocities and rates of solid contact. That continued last season, with opponents making hard contact (defined as a batted ball with an exit speed of 95 MPH or higher) on only 26.1% of balls in play against him. That’s nearly ten points lower than the 35.4% league average, although it’s par for the course for Jansen.

If there was anything to nitpick in Jansen’s performance, it’s that his once-stellar control got a bit wobbly. He walked 12.9% of opponents last year, his highest rate since his 2010 rookie season. That marked the fourth consecutive year in which Jansen’s walk percentage climbed relative to the year prior, and it was his first season in a decade walking more batters than the average reliever did. That didn’t prevent him from having plenty of bottom-line success, though, and the Braves aren’t locking themselves into a long-term investment.

The 34-year-old reliever signs a one-year deal, shy of MLBTR’s two-year, $26MM projection entering the offseason. The deal brings the Braves payroll to an estimated $185MM, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s uncharted territory for the organization, but Atlanta brass has maintained throughout the winter they’d push their spending upwards on the heels of a World Series run. Their luxury tax ledger, meanwhile, sits around $208MM — about $22MM shy of the base threshold.

Jansen’s signing is the most important step in what has been something of a bullpen makeover in Atlanta. The Braves also added Collin McHugh and Tyler Thornburg, both of whom can step into immediate work. McHugh, coming off an excellent season, seems likely to take on high-leverage innings for manager Brian Snitker. Former closer Will Smith now steps into that mix as well, as Jansen’s signing bumps him from the ninth inning. Speaking with reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) this evening, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos confirmed Smith was willing to cede the ninth inning in order to strengthen the overall roster. Smith, McHugh, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson and A.J. Minter form the core of what could be a very difficult late-innings mix to crack for opposing lineups.

That’s before even considering the presence of former All-Star closer Kirby Yates, whom the Braves signed before the lockout. The righty is still on the mend from a March 2021 Tommy John surgery, but he’s expected to factor into the mix down the stretch. Atlanta no doubt envisions playing meaningful games into September and October as they reload for what they hope will be another title run.

Along the way, they very well may come up against the Dodgers. There’d be plenty of intrigue if the clubs meet again in the playoffs, as they’ve now poached franchise icons from one another in recent days. Atlanta brass certainly didn’t allow the Dodgers’ finalization of a six-year deal with Freddie Freeman this afternoon to influence their pursuit of Jansen, but the fanbase and some in the organization probably feel some amount of satisfaction in poaching a marquee player from L.A. There was already going to be plenty of intrigue every time the two teams met this season. Jansen heading to Atlanta will only take that up another notch.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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Carlos Correa remains on the free agent market, as possible suitors like the Yankees, Phillies, Tigers and Rangers have all seemingly decided not to make a serious run at him this offseason. With less than three weeks to go before Opening Day, a resolution on the Correa front seems likely to arrive sooner than later.

The incumbent Astros haven’t abandoned their pursuit. Houston’s initial five-year, $160MM offer to Correa early in the offseason never seemed especially tempting for the star shortstop. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweeted earlier this week the Astros were preparing a new offer, noting that players in Houston camp were palpably excited about the possibility the team could bring him back.

Asked about the chances of re-upping Correa this morning, Astros GM James Click demurred (video link from Jason Bristol of KHOU). “It’s not something we’re going to comment on one way or the other,” he said before noting that the recent signing of Niko Goodrum strengthened the club’s overall infield depth. Houston also has veteran Aledmys Díaz and top prospect Jeremy Peña as possible options if Correa heads elsewhere. Skipper Dusty Baker called Peña “the frontrunner” among the in-house players at the position this week (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Former Astros scouting director Mike Elias — an instrumental factor in Houston’s decision to select Correa first overall in the 2012 draft — is now running baseball operations with the Orioles. That has led to some speculation the rebuilding O’s could get into the mix for the two-time All-Star. There hadn’t previously been any firm indication Baltimore was considering such a move, but Rosenthal wrote last night the O’s could contemplate a run at Correa “if his price dropped to a level the club deemed appropriate.”

That’d require a change in tone from Elias’ comments earlier this week, when he said he didn’t anticipate the Orioles signing any players to multi-year contracts. Making an exception for Correa, though, makes some sense. Beyond Elias’ personal familiarity with the shortstop, Correa’s young enough to anchor whatever core with which the O’s emerge from their rebuild. He’s only 27 years old, and while Correa wouldn’t single-handedly make Baltimore a contender this year, he’d presumably remain an excellent player during 2023-24 campaigns when the O’s expect to be competitive.

Correa to Baltimore remains a long shot, and the caveat that it may require his asking price falling is a notable one. Still, Raul Ramos of Con Las Bases Llenas linked the O’s with Correa before Rosenthal’s report, writing the club may even had put an offer on the table. There’ll certainly be more clarity on Correa’s eventual destination fairly soon, particularly with the other star free agent option at the position, Trevor Story, reportedly nearing a decision.

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