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Reds Trade Alexis Díaz To Dodgers

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The Dodgers acquired reliever Alexis Díaz from the Reds for minor league right-hander Mike Villani on Thursday afternoon. Los Angeles transferred Evan Phillips to the 60-day injured list to create a spot on the 40-man roster. According to Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times, Díaz will report to the Dodgers’ Arizona facilities to work with the club’s pitching team.

Diaz, 28, has seen his stock drop precipitously since finishing fifth in 2022 Rookie of the Year voting and making the All-Star team in 2023. He’s lost nearly three miles per hour off his once-96 mph fastball and seen his already problematic walk rate climb to untenable levels. He appeared in six games with Cincinnati this season, surrendered four homers, walked 15.6% of his opponents against just a 9.8% strikeout rate, and plunked two other batters — all en route to a catastrophic 12.00 ERA.

Things haven’t gone much better since he was sent down to Louisville. Diaz’s 4.61 ERA is a far sight better than his small-sample mark of 12.00 in the majors, but he’s walked 17.1% of his Triple-A opponents, hit two more batters and also unleashed a pair of wild pitches. His 93.1 mph average fastball is right in line with the career-worst 93.0 mark he flashed in this year’s six major league innings.

Were Diaz’s struggles confined to just the 2025 season, it’d be easier to view him through a more optimistic lens. That’s not the case. While last year’s 3.99 ERA looks serviceable on the surface, that number belies many of the same worrying trends that have plagued Diaz in 2025. Last year’s average 93.9 mph fastball marked a drop of nearly two miles per hour from Diaz’s rookie rate. His 22.7% strikeout rate and 11% swinging-strike rate were both miles worse than his rates in 2022-23. Diaz’s contact rate jumped from about 67% in 2022-23 to 76.3% last year (and a dismal 87.1% in 2025). All of those worrying trends made Diaz stand out as a viable non-tender candidate, but the Reds kept him around and agreed to a $4.5MM contract to avoid an arbitration hearing. They’re surely regretting that decision at this stage.

Suffice it to say, while Diaz has plenty of name value — both as a former All-Star and as the younger brother of Mets closer Edwin Diaz — he’s a pure project at this point. The Dodgers made no mention of cash considerations in their swap, so it seems they’ll take on the entirety of Diaz’s remaining salary. As of this writing, that’s a total of $2.95MM in salary. Los Angeles will pay a 110% luxury tax on that figure, tacking another $3.25MM onto the bill and bringing the total financial outlay to $6.2MM.

That’s a steep price to pay — before even getting into any prospects changing hands — but if L.A. can successfully get Diaz back on track, he’ll be under club control for three additional seasons via arbitration. Entering the year, that was scheduled to be another two seasons, but his demotion to Triple-A has already cost him enough service time to push that timeframe back by a year. The Dodgers passed on a similar buy-low opportunity with Brewers righty Joel Payamps, who was designated for assignment and passed through waivers, presumably on account of Payamps’ lack of minor league options. Diaz entered 2025 with a full slate of minor league options and will have two remaining beyond the current season.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Dodgers keep Diaz on the 40-man roster. There’d be some risk in running him through waivers, but most clubs would probably balk at the idea of taking on nearly $3MM in guaranteed money for a reclamation project who’s struggled this much both in the majors and in Triple-A. If the Dodgers were to pass Diaz through waivers, they could assign him outright to Triple-A and free the 40-man spot back up, knowing that Diaz would never reject the assignment in favor of free agency (because doing so would require forfeiting the remainder of this year’s guaranteed money).

As for the 22-year-old Villani, he’s a long-term play for the Reds. The Dodgers selected him out of Long Beach State in the 13th round of last year’s draft. Baseball America ranked him 453rd on their top-500 list of draft prospects last year, praising a fastball that runs up to 98 mph but questioning his lack of spin and feel for secondary pitches. Villani commands that heater well, per BA, but he’s barely gotten a chance to show it in pro ball, as injuries have limited him to just two innings with the Dodgers’ Rookie-level affiliate.

Villani is effectively a lottery ticket relief prospect who’s probably two or three years away from even emerging as a realistic option for the Reds — all of which speaks to the extent to which Diaz’s stock has tumbled since he stopped missing bats and lost two to three miles per hour on his fastball.

Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Dodgers were nearing a trade for Diaz. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that Villani was going back to Cincinnati.

Rockies Sign Orlando Arcia

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May 28: The Rockies have just made it official, announcing their signing of Arcia. Infielder Aaron Schunk has been optioned as the corresponding move. The 40-man roster count goes from 38 to 39.

May 27: Arcia and the Rox are in agreement on a big league deal, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

May 26: The Rockies and free agent infielder Orlando Arcia are in the final stages of contract talks, according to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base.  Should the deal be completed, it will mark a quick turn-around in the open market for Arcia, who was released just yesterday by the Braves after he cleared waivers. Arcia is repped by World Sports Agency.

Ezequiel Tovar is locked in as Colorado’s everyday shortstop, so adding Arcia probably means the Rockies are either looking at the 30-year-old as a depth piece.  Second baseman Adael Amador hasn’t hit much at all since being called up to the majors, so the Rockies might be considering sending him back down to Triple-A since Thairo Estrada is close to returning from the injured list.  This leaves Arcia, Kyle Farmer, Tyler Freeman and Aaron Schunk on hand as the bench depth, barring another move.

Arcia has mostly played shortstop during his 10 Major League seasons, and his generally solid glovework has helped him carve out that long career despite a modest .241/.294/.373 slash line.  His most consistent offensive run came with the Braves in 2022 and during the first half of the 2023 season, and Arcia was even named to the All-Star team for his strong performance at the plate in the opening months of the 2023 campaign.

Since then, however, Arcia’s bat has normalized back its usual levels, and he lost his starting shortstop job in Atlanta to Nick Allen.  Arcia has appeared in only 14 games this season, and batted .194/.219/.226 in 32 trips to the plate.  Since Arcia was no longer in the team’s plans, the Braves designated him for assignment and released him earlier this week.

Owed $2MM in 2025, Arcia is still owed around $1.376MM of that salary, plus his contract contains a $2MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout.  The Rockies only owe the prorated MLB minimum portion of what remains of his 2025 salary, with Atlanta booting the rest of the bill.

The price tag is small enough that the Rockies may have felt it was worth it to bring in a veteran player with some relatively recent success on his track record — perhaps as a trade chip for the deadline, or perhaps just as an upgrade over its other backup infield options.  Since Colorado certainly looks like it will be a seller at the deadline, any number of roster spots could be opening up after July 31.  If Arcia himself isn’t moved, he can cover innings for the Rockies in the event that perhaps Estrada, Farmer, or Freeman are moved, or if the Rox explore a bigger trade like moving Ryan McMahon.

Ronel Blanco To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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11:03am: Astros manager Joe Espada provided some more specifics to Leah Vann of Chron.com, revealing that Blanco will undergo Tommy John surgery.

10:28am: Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco, currently on the injured list due to elbow discomfort, will undergo season-ending surgery next week, the team announced Wednesday. Specifics on the nature of the procedure were not immediately revealed. Blanco is “anticipated to return during the 2026 season,” per the Astros, which suggests that he may not be ready for the start of next year’s spring training.

Blanco, 31, hit the injured list earlier this month with what was vaguely described as elbow discomfort. The lack of specificity is par for the course for the Astros organization when it comes to injuries, but the open-ended nature of the issue paired with GM Dana Brown stating that the Astros were “hoping for the best” as Blanco sought a second opinion created a particularly ominous air around Blanco’s status. It now appears that a worst-case scenario, or close to it, will play out.

Subtracting Blanco from an already thin rotation mix puts Houston in a perilous position. Their one-two punch of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez is among the best rotation duos in the sport. Everything thereafter gets murky.

Rookies Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon are both in the rotation at present, as is Lance McCullers Jr., who just returned from an injury absence of more than two years. Gusto (4.58 ERA in 35 1/3 innings) and Gordon (5.52 ERA in 14 2/3 innings) are not top-shelf prospects but rather 26-year-olds who profile as back-end starters or perhaps multi-inning relievers. McCullers has yet to complete five innings in an outing but has been solid in three of his four abbreviated starts. In the other, however, he was decimated for seven earned runs in just one-third of an inning versus the Reds.

Houston’s other rotation options are more or less all on the injured list. Spencer Arrighetti is still out with a broken thumb. Hayden Wesneski recently underwent Tommy John surgery, ending his 2025 season. Luis Garcia has been out more than two years due to Tommy John surgery and a series of setbacks. Cristian Javier had Tommy John surgery last June. J.P. France underwent shoulder surgery last July.

The ’Stros do have a few more rotation candidates in Triple-A, but there’s minimal experience among the group. Righty AJ Blubaugh made one four-inning start in his MLB debut earlier this season. He has a 6.05 ERA in Triple-A. Lefty Brandon Walter, a former prospect in the Red Sox organization, signed a minor league deal last summer and was selected to the big league roster shortly after the announcement that Wesneski’s season is over. He’s pitched quite well in Triple-A this year (1.94 ERA) but is in his first season back from a shoulder injury that cost him all of 2024 and has a 5.14 ERA in 28 career MLB innings. Journeyman righty Jason Alexander was recently claimed off waivers. Prospect Miguel Ullola is not yet on the 40-man roster; he has a solid 3.86 ERA and a huge 32.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A but also a grim 15.4% walk rate.

Suffice it to say, the Astros aren’t exactly plentiful in reliable rotation options at the moment. An injury to either Brown or Valdez would be a dagger to a reeling staff that’s been buoyed by a surprisingly excellent bullpen. The lack of innings from the rotation will very likely put further strain on that relief corps, however, making it all the more imperative that Houston find some rotation reinforcements, whether that help comes from within or via trade.

Of course, trading for help is far easier said than done. Even obvious sellers tend to avoid moving veteran pieces at this stage of the season, instead preferring to wait until there are more bidders and a fuller grasp of the potential market later in the summer. On top of that, the Astros will face some financial limitations if they look to bring in anyone from outside the organization. Owner Jim Crane didn’t expressly state it on the record, but multiple reports and nearly all of the Astros’ offseason actions made clear that Crane is intent on remaining south of the $241MM luxury tax threshold in 2025. An exception might have been made had Alex Bregman taken the team’s reported six-year offer, but that seems to have been the only scenario in which Crane was content to pay the tax. At the moment, RosterResource projects the Astros with about $235.5MM of luxury considerations.

For the time being, Houston will likely attempt to tread water with in-house options. Arrighetti could be back in around a month if all goes well; Espada told reporters last week that he was set for a follow-up visit to check in on his thumb’s progress and could begin playing catch a few days after the fact. He’ll need to progress through flat ground throwing, mound sessions, live batting practice and multiple minor league rehab starts before rejoining the team, however. No one else among Houston’s contingent of injured starters will be back anytime soon.

Barring a surprising acquisition, the Astros will be forced to continue operating with 60% of their Opening Day rotation on the shelf. The silver lining is that the 40% that remains healthy — Brown and Valdez — are far and away the team’s two best starters. If they can stay afloat in the standings, it’s all but a given that the Astros will target rotation help on the summer trade market. They’re currently in second place in the AL West, sitting a game and a half behind the division-leading Mariners. Houston and Cleveland are currently tied for the final two Wild Card spots in the American League, but six teams (Royals, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels) are within four games in that tightly contested race.

Joc Pederson Suffers Right Hand Fracture

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The Rangers were dealt a major injury blow today when DH Joc Pederson was hit by a pitch in this evening’s loss to the White Sox. Pederson initially stayed in the game but was later lifted for a pinch-hitter. Manager Bruce Bochy revealed to reporters (including Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News) that Pederson suffered a fracture in his right hand when he was struck by the pitch. Pederson told reporters, including McFarland, that he expects a recovery timeline of six weeks for the injury.

It’s a blow to a Rangers club that has already struggled to stay healthy this year. Pederson will now join Corey Seager and Evan Carter on the shelf from the club’s lineup, in addition to injuries suffered by reliever Chris Martin and starters Kumar Rocker, Jon Gray, and Cody Bradford. Those injuries have contributed to Texas’s struggles this year, as they’ve posted a lackluster 25-28 record that’s left them three games out of a Wild Card spot and five games out of the AL West. With Josh Smith covering for Seager at shortstop and Sam Haggerty holding down center field in place of Carter, the Rangers will likely be forced to get creative with replacing Pederson.

One option could be first baseman Blaine Crim, who failed to record a hit in a five-game cup of coffee earlier this year but sports a .301/.369/.558 slash line in Triple-A this year. Another could be outfielder Dustin Harris, who has a 104 wRC+ in 45 trips to the plate at the big league level and is the club’s only left-handed hitter already on the 40-man roster at Triple-A. Harris could be a particularly attractive option if the Rangers would like to continuing starting backup catcher Kyle Higashioka at DH against left-handed pitchers, a role which the club is already carrying third catcher Tucker Barnhart in order to accommodate on a more regular basis.

Turning back to Pederson, it must be acknowledged that for however much losing his offensive prowess from the lineup may sting on paper he hasn’t delivered much production in his first season with the organization. Signed to a two-year, $37MM guarantee over the winter, Pederson has hit a paltry .132/.266/.240 (51 wRC+) in 144 plate appearances to this point in the season. That’s hardly production a club will miss from their lineup, but it’s unfortunate timing nonetheless giving that Pederson had just begun to look more like his normal self at the plate: he’s hitting .220/.429/.444 with four extra-base hits and an eye-popping 26.5% walk rate over his last 16 games.

The Rangers can only hope that he’ll be able to pick back up right where he left off when he returns to action later this summer. A six week timetable would leave him poised to return in early July, shortly before the All-Star break. Rough as his start to the 2025 campaign was, it goes without saying that Pederson can be a dynamic addition to virtually any lineup when healthy; while he almost exclusively plays against right-handed pitching, the slugger slashed an excellent .262/.365/.485 with a wRC+ of 135 and 61 homers in 387 games over his last three seasons. That’s the 16th-best wRC+ among all hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances in that span, sandwiched between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez on the leaderboard. If Pederson can offer that sort of production to the Rangers in the second half, it should be easy for fans to forget his first-half struggles and injury woes so long as Texas hasn’t already fallen out of the playoff conversation before he returns.

Red Sox Promote Marcelo Mayer; Alex Bregman To IL With “Significant” Quad Strain

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4:27pm: The Red Sox have officially announced the selection of Mayer’s contract. Bregman was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right quad strain to create room for Mayer on the active roster, while Casas was placed on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot. Cora told reporters (including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic) this afternoon that Bregman’s injury is “significant” and compared it to a quad strain Bregman suffered in 2021 that ultimately caused him to miss around two months.

1:39pm: The Red Sox are promoting top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Katie Morrison-O’Day of MassLive observed that Mayer was being congratulated by his teammates in the clubhouse at Triple-A Worcester. Her MassLive colleague Christopher Smith first reported that the former first-round pick is headed to Fenway Park.

The promotion comes as Alex Bregman navigates a right quad injury that seems likely to send him to the 10-day injured list. Bregman came out of yesterday’s blowout win over the Orioles in the fifth inning. He came up a bit gimpy after making an aggressive turn around the first base bag on a single off the Green Monster. He immediately exited in favor of Abraham Toro. The team is still awaiting MRI results from this morning. Manager Alex Cora told reporters (including WEEI’s Rob Bradford) that the star third baseman woke up with more soreness than he’d expected today.

Boston did not place Bregman on the IL before the first game of today’s doubleheader. There’s a good chance that’ll come between games tonight. They’ll also need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Mayer, but that can easily be achieved by transferring Triston Casas to the 60-day injured list.

Cora has already shot down the idea that Rafael Devers could see any third base time in Bregman’s absence. He’ll remain a full-time designated hitter. That means the 22-year-old Mayer should be in the lineup on a near everyday basis at third base. He obviously can’t be expected to replace the production they’re losing with Bregman’s absence. The two-time All-Star takes a .299/.385/.553 batting line to his likely stint on the injured list.

Mayer has very little experience at the hot corner. He started one game there in Double-A in each of the 2023 and ’24 seasons. He’s added four appearances in Triple-A this year. Mayer has taken the vast majority of his professional reps as a shortstop. He’d moved more frequently to second base over the past few days. That wasn’t because of any question about whether he can hold up at shortstop. It was instead in preparation for what seemed to be his best path to an MLB debut — playing second base with Kristian Campbell preparing to slide to first base after the Casas injury.

While there may be some growing pains given Mayer’s lack of experience at the hot corner, it’s common for shortstops to move to other infield positions. He has the plus arm for the position and is generally regarded as a sure-handed infielder. At 6’3″, Mayer is on the bigger side for a shortstop. His range, while adequate, has never been the strongest point of his defensive profile. That’s less of a concern at third base.

Mayer certainly brings a higher offensive ceiling than the utility options (Toro and David Hamilton) who may otherwise have replaced Bregman. The fourth overall pick in 2021, Mayer has been a feature on top prospect lists throughout his professional career. The left-handed hitter has moved a little more slowly than anticipated, largely because of injuries to his left shoulder and right wrist that affected him in 2022-23. Scouts have remained enamored with his power, polished strike zone discipline and overall natural athleticism.

That has been on display over the past two minor league seasons. Mayer hit .307/.370/.480 in Double-A a year ago. He’s out to a solid .271/.347/.471 slash with nine homers in 43 games during his first Triple-A action. He’s drawing walks at a strong 10.4% clip compared to a 19.7% strikeout rate that matches last year’s mark for the lowest of his career.

While the Bregman injury is the immediate impetus for Mayer’s promotion, there should be opportunity to stick past Bregman’s return if he performs well. The Sox may feel comfortable using Campbell at first base by that point, potentially opening second base. Mayer could also eventually supplant Trevor Story as the starting shortstop. Story began the season with a power barrage but has done almost nothing offensively for the better part of six weeks. He’s hitting .159 with one home run and 38 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances since his two-homer game on April 18.

Mayer will not reach a full year of service time unless he triggers the Prospect Promotion Inventive by finishing in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. The Sox would not receive an extra draft choice under the PPI because they did not carry Mayer on the big league roster for at least 172 days. He would be on track to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2027-28 offseason if he’s in big leagues for good, though future optional assignments could certainly change that timeline.

Photo courtesy of Imagn Images.

Royals Designate Hunter Renfroe For Assignment

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The Royals announced Friday that they’ve designated veteran outfielder Hunter Renfroe for assignment. Infielder Nick Loftin has been recalled from Triple-A Omaha in a corresponding move. Renfroe is being paid $7.5MM in the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and will very likely be released in the coming days.

Kansas City gave out a pair of surprising two-year deals with player opt-outs in the 2023-24 offseason: one to Renfroe and another to veteran reliever Chris Stratton. Both struggled in year one of the contract and picked up said player option. Both players have been cut loose within days of each other, less than one-third of the way through the second season of those pacts.

The 33-year-old Renfroe had a big performance in June and July last season but struggled immensely outside those two months. From August onward, he batted only .211/.244/.333, finishing out the season with a sub-par .229/.297/.392 slash in 424 plate appearances. Renfroe understandably wasn’t keen on taking that batting line back to the open market, particularly not ahead of his age-33 campaign.

Any hopes of a rebound have faded, however, as the veteran slugger has declined even further at the plate this season. In 108 turns at the plate, Renfroe is hitting just .182/.241/.242 (32 wRC+, or 68% worse than league-average offense). He’s yet to hit a home run this season.

Given the magnitude of those struggles, there’s no way Renfroe will be claimed on waivers. Finding a trade partner should be nearly impossible as well. The overwhelming likelihood is that he, as was the case with Stratton, will be released on the heels of his DFA. At that point, the Royals would be on the hook for the remainder of his $7.5MM salary. A new team would owe Renfroe only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster.

Renfroe was a buy-low candidate even in the 2023-24 offseason (hence the surprise surrounding a two-year deal with a player opt-out). He’d slashed .233/.297/.416 between the Angels and Reds a year prior. He hasn’t had an above-average season at the plate since a 29-homer campaign with the 2022 Brewers, and once-strong defensive grades have declined considerably over the past few seasons. Renfroe did smack 60 homers and hit .257/.315/.496 in just under 1100 plate appearances between Boston and Milwaukee in 2021-22, so someone will probably take a flier on a minor league contract, but he’s a project at this stage of his career.

Braves Expected To Activate Ronald Acuna On Friday

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Ronald Acuña Jr. is seemingly one day away from his return to Truist Park. The Braves scratched Acuña from what would have been his sixth rehab appearance with Triple-A Gwinnett. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reports that Acuña is en route to meet the team in Atlanta. Francys Romero adds that the Braves intend to activate him from the injured list before tomorrow’s series opener against the Padres.

It’s three days shy of the one-year anniversary of Acuña’s season-ending ACL tear. On May 26, 2024, he tore the ligament in his left knee while bluffing a stolen base attempt. It was the second time in his seven-year career that a season had been cut short by a devastating knee injury. Acuña tore the ACL in his right knee in July 2021, sidelining him for their World Series run.

Acuña made a quicker return from his first ACL tear. He was reinstated before the end of April 2022. He showed some signs of rust throughout that year, hitting .266/.351/.413 the rest of the way. That was well below his 2018-21 production. He followed with a career-best season to win the 2023 NL MVP award. He’d been out to a slower start last season, batting .250/.351/.365 across 49 games.

The Braves took things more slowly with Acuña’s second ACL rehab. He didn’t log any game action in Spring Training and has spent the first two months of the season on the IL. Atlanta sent him to their complex to begin a rehab assignment 10 days ago. He played one game there before reporting to Gwinnett, where he collected five hits and took seven walks in five games. The Braves have evidently seen enough to plug him back into Brian Snitker’s lineup, presumably in his customary leadoff spot.

Alex Verdugo has been hitting atop the order while playing every day in left field. He’s struggling offensively for a second consecutive year. Verdugo has hit .257/.314/.330 without a home run in 118 plate appearances. That’s on par with his .233/.291/.356 batting line in last season’s disappointing run with the Yankees.

Acuña has been a full-time right fielder over the past half-decade. He’ll slot back into that position, where Eli White has played his way into regular playing time. He could slide to left field and cut into Verdugo’s reps. White hit .311/.367/.600 with eight extra-base hits in April. His bat has cooled this month (.269/.310/.358 with no home runs), but that’s still a bit better than what Verdugo has provided.

White hits right-handed but has been better without the platoon advantage throughout his career. The lefty-hitting Verdugo is much better against righty pitching, as expected. Jurickson Profar will be back from his PED suspension in July. He’ll presumably return to everyday left field work, though he’d be ineligible for postseason play if the Braves qualify.

Atlanta has clawed back to .500 following their 0-7 start to the season. They’re three games back of the NL’s final Wild Card spot, which is currently held by the team they’ll welcome tomorrow. San Diego swept the Braves over a four-game set to open the year, but they’re taking a six-game losing streak into this weekend’s series.

The Braves technically only need to create an active roster spot for Acuña’s return from the 10-day IL, but they’re quite likely to designate someone for assignment tomorrow. Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II are the only hitters on the active roster who have minor league options. Luke Williams, Stuart Fairchild and Orlando Arcia are all out of options and have seen little to no playing time off the bench in recent weeks.

Mariners Activate George Kirby For Season Debut

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The Mariners announced Thursday that right-hander George Kirby has been reinstated from the injured list. He’ll make his 2025 debut today against the Astros. Righty Troy Taylor was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma last night to open a spot on the roster for Kirby’s return.

The first-place Mariners have surged to a 28-20 record this season despite not getting a single pitch from arguably their best starter. The 27-year-old Kirby has been out all season after the Mariners opted for a cautious approach when Kirby was diagnosed with shoulder inflammation during spring training.

A first-round pick back in 2019 (No. 20 overall), Kirby quickly became one of the Mariners’ top pitching prospects and was soon regarded as one of the top prospects in the entire sport. He breezed through the minors and could very well have debuted even sooner were it not for the canceled 2020 minor league season.

Kirby broke through to the majors in 2022 and hasn’t looked back. He pitched 130 innings over the life of 26 starts in his rookie season and turned in a 3.39 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate. Few pitchers can sustain a walk rate that low, but Kirby has actually improved upon that mark in subsequent seasons. He was touted as having the best command of perhaps any top pitching prospect in the sport prior to his debut, and he now has a legitimate claim to the best command of any pitcher in Major League Baseball.

Since his 2022 debut, no starting pitcher has a lower walk rate than Kirby’s 3.1% mark. Only one qualified reliever in that time has a better walk rate (Chris Martin, at 2.8%). You’d have to drop the threshold to a minimum of 20 innings pitched (total) since 2022 to find a second pitcher with a lower walk rate than Kirby.

Kirby’s pinpoint command is all the more deadly when one considers that he’s not the archetypal soft-tossing, finesse pitcher typically associated with this type of precision. He’s averaged 95.8 mph on his four-seamer in his career and sat 96.1 mph with the pitch from 2023-24.

Kirby was an All-Star in 2023 and finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting that season. He’s started 89 big league games for the Mariners since his debut and touts a 3.43 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate to go along with that pristine walk rate. Those strikeout and grounder rates are only a bit better than average, but a pitcher who averages less than a walk per start doesn’t need to pile up strikeouts or ground-balls at league-leading rates to be among the most effective pitchers in the sport.

The Mariners are getting Kirby back at an ideal time. Rotation-mates Logan Gilbert (flexor strain) and Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) are both on the 15-day injured list at the moment. Seattle is also set to square off against the second-place Astros for a four-game series. Houston has been a league-average team against right-handed pitching this season, and the ’Stros are currently without their top left-handed bat: designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (though he has uncharacteristically struggled versus righties this season). The only left-handed hitters on Houston’s roster are switch-hitting catcher Victor Caratini and backup catcher Cesar Salazar. Kirby held right-handed hitters to an awful .234/.257/.360 slash in 2024.

Jean Segura Retires

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Longtime MLB infielder Jean Segura has retired, according to a social media post from his representatives at CAA. Segura last appeared in the majors in 2023 and spent time in Triple-A with the Orioles last season.

Segura had an accomplished 12-year big league run. The Dominican Republic native signed as an amateur with the Angels in 2007. He was one of the sport’s top prospects when he debuted with the Halos in July 2012. Segura played one game, then was traded to Milwaukee less than a week later as the centerpiece of the prospect package for Zack Greinke.

The Brewers immediately installed Segura as their starting shortstop. He held that role for the next three and a half seasons. His first full season was his best in Milwaukee, as he hit .294 to earn an All-Star selection. His production plummeted between 2014-15. The Brewers moved on before the ’16 season, moving him to the Diamondbacks in a deal for starter Chase Anderson and minor league second baseman Isan Díaz.

Segura only spent one season in the desert, but it was the best year of his career. He led the National League with 203 hits while posting a .319/.368/.499 line over 694 plate appearances. He set personal highs in all three slash stats. He tallied a career-high 41 doubles and hit 20 home runs for the only time. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each credited him with over six wins above replacement.

Fantastic as Segura’s season was, his greatest impact on the Arizona organization came the following winter. They packaged him alongside Mitch Haniger to Seattle for Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker. Marte is on track to spend over a decade with the Snakes and has become one of the best players in franchise history.

The Mariners signed Segura to a five-year, $70MM extension midway through his first season in the Pacific Northwest. He would only spend one year of that contract in Seattle, though he remained an above-average regular during his time there. He hit .300 or better in both years and slashed .302/.345/.421 in nearly 1200 plate appearances overall. He was on the move again during the 2018-19 offseason. The M’s dealt him to Philadelphia in a deal that netted J.P. Crawford.

The move worked out well for both clubs. Crawford has developed into Seattle’s long-term answer at shortstop. Segura was a solid regular over four seasons with the Phils — first at shortstop, then for three seasons at second base. He hit .281/.337/.418 in 427 games in a Philadelphia uniform. It was his second-longest run with one team, trailing his early-career stint in Milwaukee. It also afforded him the only playoff experience of his career. Segura was a regular throughout the Phils’ pennant run in 2022, though he hit .214 in 17 postseason games.

Philadelphia bought out Segura’s $17MM club option for the 2023 season. That sent him to the free agent market for the first time. He signed a two-year, $17MM contract with the Marlins to move to third base. The deal did not pan out, as he hit .219/.277/.279 across 85 games for the Fish. They traded him to the Guardians in a salary swap for Josh Bell at the ’23 deadline. Cleveland immediately released him, and Segura’s final game as a Marlin turned out to be his last in the big leagues.

While his last season didn’t go well, Segura can look back on a very good major league career. He finishes with a .281/.327/.401 batting line in more than 1400 games. He topped 1500 hits, connected on 110 home runs, and stole 211 bases. Segura drove in 513 runs and scored 737 times. He hit .300 on three occasions, made a pair of All-Star Games, and received down-ballot MVP votes for his year in Arizona. Baseball Reference calculates his lifetime earnings close to $106MM. He was a part of five notable trades, two of which remain consequential today. MLBTR congratulates Segura on his run and wishes him the best in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of John Geliebter, Imagn Images.

Report: “No Chance” Paul Skenes Will Be Traded This Year

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Amid the Pirates’ awful start to the season and decision to fire manager Derek Shelton, there’s been some speculation on the possibility of the Bucs blowing things up and again refocusing on building up the farm system. Specifically, many fans have begun to wonder about the possibility of the Pirates dangling the final four and a half seasons of control over reigning NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young finalist Paul Skenes. Unsurprisingly, there’s no real chances of that happening in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post spoke to an unnamed Pirates executive who flatly told him, “No way, no chance, no how,” when the possibility of a Skenes trade was broached.

Any and all talk of a possible Skenes swap has been little more than wishful thinking from fans of other clubs. Much of the rumbling stems from ESPN’s Jeff Passan recent appearance on the Pat McAfee Show (video link). Passan never suggested a trade was likely or even plausible but opined that there’s at least “an argument to be made” that it’d be the right call, given the team’s immediate fall from postseason contention, their inability to score runs, and the unlikelihood of owner Bob Nutting spending to either surround Skenes with competitive players or to extend the team’s ace. Passan rightly pointed out that there will be teams asking about Skenes at this year’s trade deadline. Interest from other clubs is a given, but a trade has never seemed like a real possibility.

Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, made his MLB debut less than one year after being selected and immediately cemented his place among baseball’s top arms. He started the All-Star Game for the NL last season, secured 23 of 30 first-place votes in NL Rookie of the Year balloting, and finished third in NL Cy Young voting. Since debuting last year on May 11, Skenes leads the majors with a 2.12 ERA. He ranks 14th in innings pitched (195 2/3), fourth in strikeout rate (30.6%), fourth in differential between his strikeout and walk rates (24.3%), third in FIP (2.54) and fourth in SIERA (2.89).

Skenes is already an ace in virtually every sense of the word. The Pirates were presumably hoping that by holding off his call to the majors until mid-May, they could strike the balance between having Skenes help improve on their 2023 win total (76) and keep him out of the big leagues long enough to prevent a Rookie of the Year win and that would grant him a full year of service regardless of his promotion date. Neither worked out. Skenes got that full year of service by virtue of his Rookie of the Year win, and the Pirates finished the 2024 season with the same 76-86 record they produced in 2023.

Because Skenes secured that full year of service, he’ll be controllable for “only” six seasons. He’s under Pirates control through the 2029 campaign. Had he missed out on the full year, that would’ve been pushed back to 2030.

If he stays healthy and continues on his current trajectory, Skenes figures to shatter records in arbitration. He’d reach arb eligibility in the 2026-27 offseason and go through the process three times before reaching free agency in the 2029-30 offseason. Barring an injury or unexpected decline, he’ll have a case for a mammoth contract in free agency — perhaps the largest signed by a pitcher. He’ll hit the open market heading into only his age-28 season.

Extending Skenes right now would already require the largest contract in Pirates history by a wide margin. Pittsburgh has never given out a contract larger than Bryan Reynolds’ seven-year, $100MM extension. Skenes would more than double that on an extension and could even triple that commitment. It’s virtually unfathomable to think Nutting would ever pay that much for a single player. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Pirates have only spent a combined $357MM in extensions dating back to 2016. They’ve spent even less in free agency; their combined free agent spending dating back to the 2011-12 offseason totals $302MM (Contract Tracker link).

Given the Pirates’ penurious spending habits, an eventual trade of Skenes feels like an inevitability — just not in the near term. Moving their ace while he’s still earning scarcely more than the league minimum simply doesn’t feel rooted in reality. One could argue that Skenes’ trade value will never be higher, and there’s some inherent truth that as he incrementally inches toward free agency, the diminishing amount of club control will impact his value. However, trading Skenes at any point when he has multiple years of control remaining would net the Pirates a monumental return — perhaps on par with or even exceeding the Nationals’ outrageous return for Juan Soto. The gap between the trade value of four years of Skenes and two years of Skenes is not as large as the gap between two years of Skenes and one year of Skenes.

As Skenes’ price tag climbs in arbitration, a trade will become more plausible. For the time being, even with the 2025 season all but lost, the Bucs understandably plan to hang onto their ace. He’s surely a draw for ticket sales and merchandise, and if the Pirates have any designs on a more competitive roster in 2026, it’s surely built around a pitching staff that can be anchored by Skenes, Mitch Keller, top prospect Bubba Chandler and a collection of talented, controllable arms that also includes Mike Burrows, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, Hunter Barco, Bailey Falter and Johan Oviedo.

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