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Luis Arraez Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins

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Newly acquired infielder Luis Arraez has won an arbitration hearing against the Marlins, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The MVP Sports Group client will be paid $6.1MM rather than the $5MM figure originally submitted by his now-former team, the Twins.

Miami acquired Arraez, 25, in the trade that sent right-hander Pablo Lopez, top prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio to Minnesota last month. His win in arb hearing comes on the heels of a .316/.375/.420 batting line that netted him an American League batting title in 2022. Arraez notched career-highs in games played (144), plate appearances (603), doubles (31) and homers (8) this past season.

All of that surely factored into his win over his new team, and he’ll now receive a 187% raise over last year’s $2.125MM salary. This was the infielder’s second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible two more times before reaching free agency after the 2025 season.

The Marlins acquired Arraez in something of a high-risk gambit, hoping that his improved offense will offset the inherent defensive downgrade of swapping him in at second base and moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field. That’s not to suggest Chisholm can’t be a solid center field — he certainly has the tools and athleticism to handle the position — but he’s been a plus defender at second base in his career while Arraez has been below-average. And, Chisholm will now have to learn a new position on the fly. It’s a move that carries risk, but there’s no denying that Miami’s lineup looks deeper with Arraez hitting at or near the top than it did previously.

With Arraez’s salary now set, the Marlins project for a payroll in the roughly $103MM range, per Roster Resource. That still has a bit of room to change even without further additions, as the Fish still have two pending arbitration cases. Utilityman Jon Berti and left-hander Jesus Luzardo both exchanged figures with the club. Berti filed a $2.3MM figure to the team’s $1.9MM submission, while Luzardo came in at $2.45MM to the Marlins’ $2.1MM. Those are trivial sums to any team in the grand scheme of things, but as we’ve explored at MLBTR in the past, the battle over those sums is more about managing salaries years down the road — even for future classes of players, as arbitration is a precedent-based system — rather than present-day savings.

Mariners Notes: Left Field, Brash, Rotation

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The Mariners’ plans in left field have looked fairly straightforward since the team signed AJ Pollock to a one-year deal last month, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto nonetheless confirmed to reporters last night that the expectation is for left field to a platoon between Pollock and one of Jarred Kelenic or Taylor Trammell (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Both Kelenic, 23, and Trammell, 25, are recent top-100 prospects who at one point were candidates to hold down long-term spots in the Seattle outfield. Kelenic, in particular, was touted as a potential star but has struggled in the big leagues to this point despite a .302/.372/.574 output in 537 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. His struggles against fellow lefties have been particularly pronounced, but Kelenic did turn in a .249/.330/.503 slash against right-handed pitching in 2022 (Triple-A and MLB combined). Trammell, meanwhile, hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB. There’s some understandable hope, then, that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.

Trammell was heralded as the superior defender of the pair during his prospect days, though neither he nor Kelenic has posted standout defensive grades thus far in the big leagues. Kelenic has more experience in the corners and has drawn above-average marks for his work there. He’s also been more apt to barrel the ball and has been less strikeout-prone, though his 29.9% mark in the big leagues is obviously problematic.

Both Kelenic and Trammell were featured in a piece by Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser, wherein he polled scouts for opinions on some recent top prospects who’ve graduated to the Majors but struggled to establish themselves. Kelenic drew more praise between the two, particularly for substantial defensive improvements, but scouts who spoke to Glaser offered fairly bearish views of both players’ swings at this point. However, Mariners GM Justin Hollander said yesterday that hitting coach Jarret DeHart has been working with Kelenic and gone through a motion-capture breakdown of his swing this offseason, and the results have been “over-the-top awesome” (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic).

Both Kelenic and Trammell are still young, and it’s fairly common to see a swing change or mechanical adjustment bring about major turnarounds in a player’s outlook. The Mariners clearly aren’t giving up on either player yet, though with both entering their final minor league option year, this is a crucial season for Kelenic and Trammell. Should they falter, the M’s have another lefty-swinging outfield bat who’s nearly ready for a Major League look; 25-year-old Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster and turned in a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between 120 Double-A games and 13 Triple-A games in 2022.

Kelenic and Trammell aren’t the only once-vaunted Mariners prospects who’ve turned in shaky big league results to this point. Righty Matt Brash won the fifth starter’s job out of spring training in 2022 but was tagged for 17 runs while posting a 19-to-17 K/BB ratio through his first 20 innings (five starts). That prompted the team to option Brash back to Triple-A Tacoma, and when he returned in July, he was used exclusively as a reliever.

That’ll be Brash’s role in 2023 as well, Dipoto confirmed (Twitter link via Divish). It’s easy to see why the Mariners are intrigued by the switch. Brash has been a starter for most of his career, but he returned to the Majors and obliterated opposing lineups while working in short relief last summer; from July 9 through season’s end, the 24-year-old pitched to a 2.35 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate. His 12.6% walk rate still needs refinement, but Brash’s heater jumped from an average of 96.3 mph in the rotation to 97.8 mph out of the ’pen and his 14% swinging-strike rate was excellent.

It’s always possible that there will be rotation innings for Brash down the road, but the Mariners look to have several spots locked up long-term. Ace Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108MM extension after being acquired in a trade last summer, and left-hander Robbie Ray inked a five-year, $115MM in free agency last offseason. Young arms Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, meanwhile, are controllable for another five and six seasons, respectively.

Both Gilbert and Kirby have made good on their status as former first-rounders and top prospects, quickly cementing themselves as high-quality big league hurlers. And, as Dipoto tells it, the duo won’t be facing any hard innings limitations in 2023 (via Brock). Gilbert threw 185 2/3 innings over the life of 32 regular-season starts in 2022, while Kirby notched a combined 156 2/3 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues. Both pitchers turned in an ERA in the low-3.00s with sharp strikeout and walk rates (Kirby, in particular). The pair might be eased into spring work, but the goal seems to be for each to make a five-inning start in the late stages of camp, setting the stage for them to work without limits once the season begins.

The group of Castillo, Ray, Gilbert and Kirby is among the best rotation quartets in baseball, but the fifth spot in the rotation remains a source of at least some uncertainty. Seattle has a pair of candidates in Marco Gonzales, a mainstay over the past five years, and KBO returnee Chris Flexen, who’s posted a 3.66 ERA in two seasons since signing in Seattle. Both pitchers have been floated as possible trade candidates throughout the winter. Gonzales is owed a combined $18.5MM from 2023-24, while Flexen will earn $8MM in 2023 before becoming a free agent in the offseason.

There’s been little indication of serious trade talks involving either in recent weeks, but it’s certainly possible that another club will show increased interest once early-spring injuries inevitably begin to arise. Then again, having both on hand gives the Mariners themselves an important safety net in the event of an in-house injury, so there’s little pressure to force a deal if the return isn’t meaningful.

Was Brad Hand Good Or Lucky Last Year?

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There seems to be a holdup in the market for left-handed relievers. Though pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Matt Strahm have signed deals, others like Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton are still out there. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently wrote about the situation, listing 10 clubs that were interested in that trio of available lefties. But that means at least seven clubs will miss out on that group and will need to consider other options, with one of those being Brad Hand.

Hand, 33 in March, had a dominant run in the second half of the last decade but seems to have aged into a different kind of pitcher in the past few years. From 2016 to 2020, he made 306 appearances with a 2.70 ERA, striking out 33.3% of batters faced while walking 8.1% and getting ground balls at a solid 41.2% clip. That strikeout rate was third among relievers with at least 250 innings in that time, trailing only Edwin Diaz and Kenley Jansen.

Those punchouts got away from him in 2021, as his rate dropped all the way down to 21.9%. He kept his ERA at a respectable 3.90 for the season, though was clearly not at the same level as years prior. He signed with the Phillies for 2022 and saw his rate stats continue in the wrong direction, though with better results overall. He tossed 45 innings last year, striking out just 19.2% of opponents and walking 11.6% of them. However, he was able to find ways to limit the overall damage and finished the year with a 2.80 ERA.

Whether that limiting of damage was skill or luck is a matter of debate. Hand’s batting average on balls in play last year was 2.71, slightly better than his .284 career mark and the .289 league average last year. It’s a similar situation with his strand rate, which was 75.9% last year, just ahead of the 72.6% league average and his 73.6% career rate. That perhaps points to a bit of good fortune, and advanced metrics were unanimous in thinking Hand deserved worse, such as a 3.93 FIP, 4.40 xERA and 4.51 SIERA. He also only allowed two home runs on the year, a difficult feat to repeat.

But it does seem as though Hand is doing something to keep hitters off balance. Among the 444 pitchers with 100 or more batted ball events last year, Hand’s average exit velocity of 87.2 mph came in 93rd. His rate of barrel per BBE was 88th, barrels per plate appearance 77th, while his 26.9% hard hit rate was fourth. In that latter category, he trailed only Lucas Luetge, Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Thielbar, and was just ahead of Devin Williams, Jason Adam, Ryan Tepera and Tyler Anderson.

This all might hinge on his slider, which is his primary pitch. He’s thrown it more than any other pitch in each season since 2017, per Statcast data. He used to get huge swing-and-miss numbers off it, with a whiff rate over 40% in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. However, that dipped to 38.6% in 2020 and then 27.9% and 22% over the past two seasons. That lack of whiffs hasn’t translated into more significant contact, however. The pitch had a hard hit rate of 29.5% in 2019 but he lowered that to 16.9% in 2022. Opponents hit just .222 against the pitch last year and slugged .321, with Hand using the slider 52.1% of the time.

It’s perhaps a function of the diminished power he has on the pitch, which he threw in the 81-85 mph range from 2016 to 2019 but has been more 79-80 in the past three years. It also has a bit less spin, as he got his RPM up to 2629 in 2017 but has dropped in subsequent years, with 2022’s spin rate coming in at 2282 RPM. That’s resulted in missing fewer bats but hitters aren’t doing much damage when they do make contact.

With less whiffs, Hand’s contact rate has naturally gone up in kind. While batters made contract on 71% of his pitches from 2016-2020, it’s been 81.7% in the past two years. But it seems as though that extra contact is coming outside the strike zone. His Z-contact rate was 82.4% during those prime years and ticked up to 87% over the past two. But his O-contact rate, for pitches outside the zone, jumped to 71% in the past two seasons after being at 53.6% in his peak years. Hitters are swinging at those pitches outside the zone a bit less, which correlates with Hand’s increased walk rate last year, but it’s possible hitters are just turning some of Hand’s whiffs into weak contact.

What teams will have to decide is whether Hand has been making this happen or merely getting away with something. He’s been working with diminished stuff in recent years but has found ways to avoid disaster, with that 3.90 ERA in 2021 and 2.80 last year. Pitching to contact is a risky proposition but Hand has found ways to make it work. The upcoming ban on defensive shifts could theoretically make it even more risky, though Hand only pitched in front of a shifted defense 20.8% of the time last year, below the 33.6% league average. If metrics like FIP, xERA and SIERA are right, he’s due for some regression, but he’s kept his ERA below those numbers two years in a row now. Perhaps he’d be best suited to a club that has strong faith in its defense and pitcher-friendly ballpark, with the Cardinals jumping out as a nice fit. But his market has been quiet this winter and Spring Training kicks off in just over a week.

The Opener: Darwinzon, Mariners, Player Chat

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With less than eight weeks remaining until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Hernandez DFA comes due:

Lefty reliever Darwinzon Hernandez was designated for assignment by the Orioles last week, and the conclusion to that is expected sometime today. Hernandez was DFA’d to make room for Cole Irvin on the 40-man roster following his acquisition by Baltimore from the A’s. Hernandez was a rather successful reliever for the Red Sox from 2019-2021, posting a 3.66 ERA (131 ERA+) and 3.85 FIP over 78 2/3 innings, despite walking 17% of his opponents along the way. The lack of command caught up to him in 2022, however, as he walked 18% of his opponents, yielded four long balls and served up 16 runs in just 6 2/3 innings (21.60 ERA).

Those struggles led to the Red Sox DFA Hernandez earlier this offseason, at which point he was claimed off waivers by the Orioles, who now hope to pass Hernandez through waivers themselves. If Hernandez makes it through waivers, Baltimore will be able to assign him outright to Triple-A, where he can serve as bullpen depth for them in 2023.

2. Arbitration for Mariners, Hernandez looms:

Yesterday, the Mariners sorted out two of their three outstanding arbitration cases, with the club winning its arbitration case against righty reliever Diego Castillo in the afternoon before going on to ink utilityman Dylan Moore to a three-year extension in the evening. That leaves one unresolved arbitration case for Seattle, and it’s perhaps the most important one: right fielder Teoscar Hernandez, whom the Mariners acquired from the Blue Jays via trade earlier this offseason. Of players and clubs who exchanged arbitration figures this offseason, Hernandez and Seattle have the largest gap between their asks: $2MM, with Hernandez filing for $16MM and the Mariners countering at $14MM. Hernandez is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season.

3. MLBTR Player Chat today:

MLBTR is excited to continue our player live chat series by welcoming right-hander Scott Feldman, who pitched in 13 MLB seasons. The best years of his career came from 2013-2015, when he pitched to a 3.83 ERA (4.13 FIP) across 77 starts and 470 1/3 innings for the Cubs, Orioles, and Astros. In swapping uniforms from the Cubs to the Orioles ahead of the 2013 trade deadline, Feldman was packaged with Steve Clevenger in exchange for Pedro Strop and future NL Cy Young award winner Jake Arrieta. Overall, Feldman pitched to a 4.43 ERA with an identical 4.43 FIP across 1386 1/3 innings and suited up for the Rangers, Cubs, Orioles, Astros, and Reds throughout his time in the big leagues. Be sure to tune in at noon CST** today for Feldman’s live chat, where he will field questions from MLBTR readers!

**We initially mistakenly listed Scott’s chat at 10am CST. It will be held at noon CST. Apologies for the error.

Orioles To Decline Five-Year Lease Extension At Camden Yards, Seeking Longer-Term Agreement With Maryland Stadium Authority

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The Orioles are passing on their opportunity to trigger a five-year extension of their lease at Camden Yards, reports Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun. According to Barker, the team is in search of “a longer-term, more comprehensive stadium agreement” with the Maryland Stadium Authority.

The Orioles’ lease at Camden Yards remains in effect through the end of the 2023 calendar year. The team faced a decision on whether to tack on additional five seasons to remain in their lease through 2028, a condition of a February 2021 extension agreement between the franchise and the MSA. Barker writes the club is optimistic about its chances of hammering out a longer deal, one which might include upgrades to the ballpark and potential development projects in the surrounding area.

That’s a hopeful indicator for fans in the area who might be apprehensive about the possibility of losing the franchise. Those worries won’t be officially quelled unless and until a new agreement is finalized, however. The sides now have 11 months to do so before the current agreement expires. Barker reports the organization is seeking a deal of 10-15 years in length and is hopeful to get something done by the All-Star Break. A recent Maryland law would allow the MSA to borrow up to $600MM for Orioles’ stadium upgrades (with a matching amount available for the NFL’s Ravens) but requires a longer-term deal than the five-year pact the O’s were deciding upon today, Barker notes.

The sides could still pivot to negotiate another short-term extension akin to the one agreed upon two years ago. That’d appear a fallback to their desired goal of a significantly longer commitment, one that’ll remain a key story for the franchise over the coming months.

After this news broke, the club issued a press release with quotes from Maryland Governor Wes Moore as well as O’s Chairman and CEO John Angelos. “When Camden Yards opened thirty years ago, the Baltimore Orioles revolutionized baseball and set the bar for the fan experience,” Moore says in the statement. “We share the commitment of the Orioles organization to ensuring that the team is playing in a world-class facility at Camden Yards for decades to come and are excited to advance our public-private partnership. We look forward to writing the next chapter of major league baseball in Maryland as we continue to make magic for fans and meaningful investment for communities across our state.”

“I am looking forward to continuing to collaborate with Governor Moore, his administration, and the Maryland Stadium Authority in order to bring to Baltimore the modern, sustainable, and electrifying sports and entertainment destination the State of Maryland deserves,” Angelos says in the same press release. “We greatly appreciate Governor Moore’s vision and commitment as we seize the tremendous opportunity to redefine the paradigm of what a Major League Baseball venue represents and thereby revitalize downtown Baltimore. It is my hope and expectation that, together with Governor Moore and the new members and new chairman of the MSA Board, we can again fully realize the potential of Camden Yards to serve as a catalyst for Baltimore’s second renaissance.”

The lease uncertainty comes at a time when the franchise’s ownership situation is the subject of controversy. Longtime O’s owner Peter Angelos is now 93 years old, and his sons Louis and John are embroiled in a legal battle. Louis Angelos has sued his brother and mother Georgia Angelos, alleging that John Angelos has blocked his mother’s wishes to sell the franchise and that John and Georgia have seized control of Peter Angelos’ assets in the Orioles and his law firm at Louis’ expense. Louis also implied that John Angelos could eventually attempt to move the franchise to Tennessee, something John Angelos has strongly denied.

John Angelos was part of a promotional event with Baltimore mayor Brandon Scott on Martin Luther King Jr. Day to announce the creation of a scholarship for local schools. Angelos, however, refused to entertain a question from Dan Connolly of the Athletic about the franchise’s ownership situation, bizarrely calling it “(an inappropriate) subject matter for this day” (video link provided by Paul Gessler of CBS Baltimore). He did reiterate, however, that “we’re not going anywhere.” Angelos expressed openness to showing Connolly and other reporters the organization’s financials and specifics of the ownership structure at another point. There’s no indication that process has been set up.

Falvey: Bullpen Upgrades “Not A Priority”

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The Twins have been active this offseason, re-signing Carlos Correa while bringing in new faces such as Pablo López, Joey Gallo, Christian Vázquez, Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer. Things have been relatively quiet in terms of the bullpen, however, and it doesn’t seem as though that’s going to change in the near future. The club’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that a significant bullpen addition it isn’t a pressing concern right now. “If we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings],” Falvey said. “We’ll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority.”

Last year, the club’s relief corps was firmly in the middle of the pack. Their collective 3.84 ERA was tied for 15th among the 30 teams in the league, while their 3.85 FIP was 14th, their 3.79 xFIP 10th and their 3.50 SIERA ninth. That group also took a hit when deadline acquisition Michael Fulmer reached free agency, though he remains unsigned.

It seems Falvey and the other decision makers in Minnesota have a lot of faith in their internal options. Jorge López was acquired from the Orioles at the deadline last year but still has two remaining years of club control. “We did our bullpen shopping at the [trade] deadline last year by adding some depth, adding Jorge [López],” Falvey said. After many years of mediocre performance as a starter, López converted to a bullpen role full-time in 2022 to great results. In 44 appearances for the O’s, he posted a 1.68 ERA while getting grounders at a 60% clip, striking out 27.6% of batters faced and walking 8.7%. Unfortunately, he didn’t maintain that pace after the trade, with a 4.37 ERA, 53.7% grounder rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate as a Twin.

López will be looking for a bounceback after that frustrating finish to his 2022 campaign, though the club also has other intriguing names in the mix that could step up. Jhoan Durán was primarily a starter in the minors but cracked the majors last year in a relief role and utterly dominated. He tossed 67 2/3 innings over 57 appearances with a 1.86 ERA, getting grounders at a 61% clip while striking out 33.5% of opponents and walking just 6% of them. “He adapted to a new role, at the highest level, faster than we could have hoped,” Falvey said.

As for others in the mix that they’re encouraged by, Falvey had this to say: “We watched Griffin Jax develop into someone we can rely on. What Jovani Moran did the last month of the season, it’s something he can really build upon.” Jax also moved from a starter to a reliever in 2022, and while he didn’t match Durán’s results, he still did well. With 65 appearances last year, he finished the year with a 3.36 ERA, 47.3% ground ball rate, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. Moran, meanwhile, put up a 2.21 ERA in 40 2/3 innings, keeping the ball on the ground at a 48.9% pace, while striking out 32.9% of batters faced, though he did walk 11% of them.

Though Falvey admits they might still make a small addition, it seems they feel they already have the high-leverage arms they need. “We feel like we have the eighth and ninth innings covered,” he says. Other relievers likely to be in the club’s bullpen include Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcalá and Trevor Megill.

The Dodgers’ Outfield Gambles

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It’s been a fairly quiet offseason by Dodgers’ standards, as they have shied away from the top-of-the-market commitments they’ve embraced in prior years. Los Angeles re-signed Clayton Kershaw, brought in J.D. Martinez, Noah Syndergaard and Shelby Miller on one-year free agent pacts, and acquired Miguel Rojas from the Marlins to bolster their middle infield depth. They watched Trea Turner, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bellinger depart.

While it’s still one of the sport’s strongest rosters top to bottom, the Dodgers have a few more question marks than they’ve had in recent years. That’s especially true in the outfield. Mookie Betts is a superstar; the two other positions are more up in the air. Bellinger was cut loose after two straight dismal offensive seasons, leaving a center field vacancy the organization hasn’t subsequently addressed.

Their relatively restrained winter was seemingly tied to a desire to dip under the $233MM luxury tax threshold. That would have reset their payor status and avoid the associated escalating penalties if/when they went back above that mark next offseason. The reduction of Trevor Bauer’s suspension put more than $22MM back onto the books and pushed them narrowly back above the threshold, which they doubled down on with the Rojas trade. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic suggested as part of a reader mailbag last week the team no longer seems likely to try to limbo underneath the tax line.

That theoretically opens the potential for further spending, since the Dodgers’ projected $238MM CBT figure is quite a bit lower than those of their previous two seasons. There hasn’t been much indication Los Angeles plans to make any meaningful additions between now and Opening Day though. The Dodgers monitored the center field market earlier in the winter but have come up empty. That’s now virtually barren, aside from a potential trade for Minnesota’s Max Kepler (who’s more familiar with right field) or a long shot deal involving Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds. The corner outfield market still has Jurickson Profar and depth types like Ben Gamel and David Peralta available in free agency and perhaps trade possibilities like Anthony Santander or Seth Brown. The Dodgers haven’t been publicly linked to anyone in that group.

If this is the outfield, the team will go into the season with more notable questions than they’ve had in the past couple years. Betts is still one of the top five players in the sport. His projected outfield mates all have talent but come with easy to spot downside. Let’s run through the group who could join Betts on the Dodger Stadium grass.

Chris Taylor

Taylor’s equally capable of playing the infield but seems ticketed for outfield work, particularly in the wake of the Rojas pickup. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM over the weekend that was the plan. Freddie Freeman, rookie Miguel Vargas, Gavin Lux, Max Muncy and Rojas figure to cover the infield if everyone’s healthy, with J.D. Martinez manning designated hitter.

A year ago, Taylor playing everyday in left or center field would’ve been a perfectly comfortable solution. While it might play out that way, it’s no longer as safe a bet after he struggled in the first season of a new four-year deal. For the first time in his six seasons in Southern California, Taylor posted a below-average slash line. He hit .221/.304/.373 with 10 home runs across 454 plate appearances, missing around a month midseason with a foot fracture.

Taylor still drew a decent number of walks with a slightly above-average hard contact percentage, but his contact rate cratered. He struck out in over 35% of his plate appearances, the highest rate of any player with 450+ trips. It was a similar story on a per-pitch basis. Taylor made contact on only 62.1% of his swings, again the worst mark among hitters who logged as much playing time as he did.

One poor season doesn’t entirely negate the .265/.343/.461 line he managed between 2017-21. He’s certainly talented enough to play better than he did in 2022. Yet given last year’s struggles, the Dodgers may need a contingency plan in the event he again battles significant swing-and-miss concerns. That’s particularly true given the Dodgers’ questionable center field composition.

Trayce Thompson

Thompson is probably going to get the first crack at that job with the team not making any additions. In one regard, the 31-year-old is in the opposite boat as Taylor. He had an incredible 2022 season that belied his lack of an established MLB track record before last year. That said, the main concern with Thompson is the same as it for L.A.’s presumptive left fielder: strikeouts.

Acquired from the Tigers in a seemingly minor June trade, Thompson got into 80 games for L.A. down the stretch. He was given 255 plate appearances, his most in a big league campaign since 2016, and was one of the team’s most effective hitters. He put up a .256/.353/.507 line with 13 home runs. Thompson made hard contact on a massive 47% of his batted balls while walking at an excellent 12.7% clip. That kind of power and plate discipline are intriguing, though his 36.5% strikeout percentage was even higher than Taylor’s.

It wouldn’t matter that Thompson’s striking out at that rate if he’s reaching base and driving the ball the way he did last season. Whether he can maintain that kind of form over a full schedule is unclear. Thompson has never played more than 80 MLB games in a year and carried a career .208/.283/.405 line into last season. He’s shown the physical tools to impact a lineup at his best and enough swing-and-miss to result in an unplayable on-base percentage at his worst.

James Outman

The 25-year-old Outman is probably the first man up in the event of an injury or performance struggles from Thompson. He played in four big league games last year but spent most of the season in the upper minors. It was a breakout year for the former 7th-round draftee. Between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City, Outman connected on 31 home runs and doubles apiece while posting a cumulative .294/.393/.586 slash in 559 plate appearances. He walked at a 12.5% clip while striking out 27.2% of the time.

Again, it’s an offensive profile driven by power and walks with concerning whiff totals. Outman is a good prospect, checking in 10th on Baseball America’s offseason write-up of a strong Dodgers’ system. The outlet praises Outman’s power and suggests he’s athletic enough to be an above-average center fielder. There’s a chance he’s an everyday player, though BA suggests he might be better suited in a role-playing or platoon capacity given his propensity for whiffs on breaking pitches. Even the latter outcome would be a great return on a 7th-round pick and a testament to Outman’s excellent minor league résumé but it raises concerns about his viability as an everyday player on a team with championship aspirations.

Overall Outlook

There are things to like about each of Taylor, Thompson and Outman. It’s certainly not an outfield devoid of upside. Yet it’s not as stable as the rest of the Dodgers’ roster or the outfields L.A. has run out in previous years. That’s reflective of Bellinger’s unexpected offensive collapse that led to his non-tender and the club’s comparatively modest offseason overall.

Barring a late-winter pickup, the onus may fall on skipper Dave Roberts to patch things together more than he’s needed in the past. A platoon of the lefty-swinging Outman and right-handed Thompson might suffice in center field. Vargas can play some left field on days when he’s not in the infield, and perhaps Martinez will log a little corner outfield work in addition to his DH reps.

Andy Pages is a quality power-hitting prospect who is already on the 40-man roster. He may still be a year away after a fine but unexceptional showing in Double-A. Michael Busch is another highly-regarded offensive player whose defensive questions at second base could push him to left field, but he’s barely played there as a professional. Jonny DeLuca is on the 40-man roster as a potential depth player. Veteran Bradley Zimmer will be in camp as a non-roster invitee and another minor league deal or two seems plausible.

There are plenty of players who could work their way into consideration. Outman, Pages, Busch and Vargas are highly-regarded prospects and highlight the kind of farm depth the Dodgers could leverage in trade midseason if the current group doesn’t pan out. While things are far from dire, the Dodgers look prepared to take more of a gamble in the outfield than they have in years past.

Mariners, Dylan Moore Agree to Three-Year Extension

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The Mariners and infielder/outfielder Dylan Moore are in agreement on a three-year extension to avoid arbitration, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Moore will earn $8.875MM over the course of the pact, with escalators that could push his earnings beyond $9MM. There are no options in the deal. This deal buys out his two remaining arbitration seasons and one free agent year.

Moore, 30, has been a fixture of the Mariners for the past four seasons in a sort of Swiss army knife capacity, providing the club with a little bit of everything. He’s appeared in 381 games in that time, playing every position on the diamond except catcher, even including one inning on the mound in 2019. He’s probably stretched as a shortstop, since all three of Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating all give him negative grades there, but they all like his work in the outfield and at second base, with his marks at other positions coming in around average.

He’s hit 35 home runs in his 1,073 plate appearances and also stolen 65 bases. His 30% strikeout rate is certainly on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a strong 10% rate and has a career batting line of .208/.317/.384. That production has amounted to a wRC+ of 100, indicating he’s been exactly league average at the plate for his career. That performance at the plate has been fairly inconsistent, with Moore hitting very well in 2020 but following it up with a rough showing the year after. His .255/.358/.496 batting line in the shortened season led to a 140 wRC+ but he hit just .181/.276/.334 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 74. It’s possible that a lot of bad luck was hounding him that year, as he had just a .229 batting average on balls in play, almost 100 points shy of the year prior. He put that misfortune behind him with a strong .224/.368/.385 line last year for a 126 wRC+.

Moore first qualified for arbitration a year ago and earned a salary of $1.35MM. For the upcoming season, he was projected to get a bump to $2MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz but he and the club couldn’t come to an agreement prior to the filing deadline a few weeks ago. He submitted a figure of $2.25MM with the club filing at $1.9MM, though they’ve now agreed to a longer commitment instead of going to a hearing over that difference. Since he was a late bloomer, he didn’t make it to the big leagues until he was 26 and wasn’t slated to reach the open market until after his 32nd birthday, but he’s carved a role for himself in Seattle and found a way to lock in some sizeable earnings.

Moore underwent surgery in the offseason to address a core injury that he sustained at the end of last season. That procedure came with a 6-8 week recovery estimate, indicating Moore should be good to go for the upcoming season. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently revealed that Moore might be slightly behind his teammates when Spring Training begins, but it doesn’t seem as though the club has any significant concerns about Moore’s health, given their investment in him.

He might not have a direct path to regular playing time at the moment, but given his ability to play just about anywhere, he will surely find a way in there as injuries and underperformance will inevitably crop up somewhere. The regular infield alignment for the M’s will likely have Ty France at first, Kolten Wong at second, J.P. Crawford at shortstop and Eugenio Suarez at third. The outfield mix includes Julio Rodríguez in center, with Teoscar Hernández, AJ Pollock, Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell candidates for time in the corners or as the designated hitter. Tommy La Stella, Sam Haggerty and Moore should all be on the roster as well, filling in at various spots as needed.

Cal Raleigh Underwent Offseason Thumb Surgery

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Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh revealed in October that he had been playing through a broken thumb and a torn ligament in his left hand. At the time, it wasn’t known what course of action would be required in the offseason, but Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports that Raleigh underwent surgery in the offseason. It’s unknown exactly when the procedure took place, but Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports that Raleigh caught a bullpen for Marco Gonzales yesterday in Arizona.

Raleigh, 26, made his debut in 2021 with a paltry .180/.223/.309 showing in 47 games. He was even worse at the start of 2022, hitting .083/.214/.208 a few weeks into the season when the club optioned him to the minors at the end of April. Just over a week later, Tom Murphy suffered a significant injury when he dislocated his shoulder, leading to Raleigh getting recalled back to the big league club.

From that point on, however, Raleigh seemed to find his power stroke in a big way. He hit 26 home runs between that recall in May and the end of the season, slashing .220/.289/.509 during that time. His 29.2% strikeout rate was certainly on the high side, but the power was enough for him to produce a 127 wRC+, indicating he was 27% better than the league average hitter in that stretch. The thumb injury reportedly occurred in early September but didn’t seem to dampen his output, as he hit seven homers in September, one in October and then another in the postseason.

He was also graded well on the other side of the ball, with 14 Defensive Runs Saved on the season, trailing only Jose Trevino and Adley Rutschman. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus gave him positive grades for his framing work as well. Those all-around contributions led to 4.2 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

It’s unclear if the recovery from that surgery will impede his readiness for 2023 in any way, but the fact that he’s already catching bullpens suggests that he’s at least close to full health. That’s surely a good sign for the M’s, though they might be okay even if Raleigh were to need some down time. It was recently reported that Murphy is back to health after not returning from that shoulder dislocation last year.

That could give the Mariners two strong options behind the plate, as Murphy has been a great hitter when healthy. He launched 18 home runs in 2019 and hit .273/.324/.535 for a wRC+ of 126. A fractured metatarsal in his left foot wiped out his 2020 and he was subpar offensively in 2021, but he was on fire last year before the injury. He hit .303/.439/.455 for a wRC+ of 168 before hitting the injured list.

Teams in recent years have seemingly been moving away from having a clear starting catcher and a backup, preferring to have two backstops sharing the time somewhat equally. Having Raleigh and Murphy both healthy would be a great situation for the Mariners in that sense, especially with Murphy hitting right-handed and Raleigh being a switch-hitter. 24 of his homers last year came as a lefty, though he walked way more from the other side.

Should either of them need any help with the workload behind the plate, Cooper Hummel is also on the 40-man while Jacob Nottingham and Brian O’Keefe will be in camp as non-roster invitees.

Red Sox Notes: Barnes, Bleier, Paxton, Bello, Pivetta

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The Red Sox made a change to their bullpen earlier this week, shipping out Matt Barnes to the Marlins for Richard Bleier. Boston reportedly paid down around $5.5MM to facilitate that deal, a testament to Barnes’ struggles since he signed a two-year, $18.75MM extension in July 2021.

That trade came a few days after the Sox had designated Barnes for assignment, a move that registered as a surprise even given the righty’s uneven past year and a half. The UCONN product had spent his entire career with the Red Sox since being drafted in the first round in 2011, and he indicated he was taken aback by the DFA.

“It was a complete blindside,” Barnes told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive) about being taken off the 40-man roster. While he indicated he doesn’t have any animosity about his time in Boston, Barnes also intimated he wasn’t enamored with his usage last season. By the second week of May, he was deployed mostly in low-leverage situations. Between May 6 and 30, he was called upon ten times. Seven of those contests saw the Sox either trailing late or leading a blowout contest, with Barnes relegated to mop-up work.

“We got to a point in the season where we were either blowing people out or losing a game and unfortunately for me, those are the games I was throwing at that point,” he said. “My workload in the games increased along with the amount of work I was doing to get back to what was normal for me. That’s when my shoulder flared up.” Barnes hit the injured list retroactive to May 31 with shoulder inflammation, an injury that kept him out of action until early August.

Of course, the lack of high-leverage work was in response to Barnes’ struggles. He’d been tagged for an 8.65 ERA in 10 appearances through May 5. That was on the heels of a 6.48 showing in the second half of 2021 that led the Sox to leave him off the playoff roster. He actually fared quite well to close out the 2022 campaign, posting a 1.66 ERA in 23 games to finish out the year. That wasn’t enough to grab a lasting 40-man spot over the winter, perhaps due to a still diminished 21.7% strikeout rate in that stretch.

Red Sox’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom discussed the Barnes DFA and subsequent trade on the Fenway Rundown podcast with Cotillo yesterday. Bloom noted that trading Barnes to Miami was “not something that we knew was going to happen at the time of the DFA,” suggesting the opportunity to make the trade arose after the reliever lost his roster spot. He pointed to Bleier’s propensity for weak contact and previous success in the AL East as a member of the Yankees and Orioles as reasons he was an appealing target for the front office.

Bleier adds a second left-hander to the Boston relief corps, joining offseason signee Joely Rodríguez. The Sox had a decent amount of turnover in that regard, waiving Darwinzon Hernández, trading Josh Taylor for Adalberto Mondesi, and seeing Matt Strahm depart via free agency. Boston has starting pitching prospects like Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter who could theoretically factor into that mix after securing 40-man roster spots.

James Paxton is another southpaw on the roster. He’s pitched just six MLB games over the past three seasons due to arm injuries. That’s raised some speculation about the possibility of the veteran seeing action in relief as a means of building his innings gradually. Bloom didn’t rule that out entirely, though he cautioned that might not be prudent for a pitcher who has started all 137 of his career big league outings.

“At the stage of his career that he’s at and having been through as much medically as he’s been through, adding the variable of asking him to do something he hasn’t really done is something we would have to think long and hard before doing,” Bloom told Cotillo. “That doesn’t rule it out, but you do have to factor that in.”

The Boston baseball operations leader also pushed back against the possibility of using young righty Brayan Bello out of the bullpen, pointing to his “ceiling of being a really good starting pitcher.” Bloom did note that Boston could “creatively” manage workloads early in the season but made clear the team still views Bello’s future as a starter. Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic writes there’s similarly no consideration of moving Nick Pivetta to the bullpen. Between that trio, Chris Sale, offseason signee Corey Kluber and the rotation conversion for Garrett Whitlock, it seems things are trending towards Tanner Houck sticking in relief for the upcoming season.

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