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Nats Notes: Nuñez, Chapparo, Williams

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The Nationals announced last night that infielder Nasim Nuñez was optioned to Triple-A Rochester after the game. A corresponding move wasn’t announced, but the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden reported not long after the Nuñez move that fellow infielder Andrés Chaparro is being called up for the first his first big league look of the 2025 season.

Nuñez has had a bizarre tenure with the Nats so far. Washington originally selected him out of the Marlins organization in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, scooping him up primarily due to his defensive prowess at shortstop. Nuñez stuck on the roster all season in 2024, appearing in only 51 games and taking only 78 plate appearances, during which he batted .246/.370/.262 with no home runs. A double was his lone extra-base hit on the season. It’s rare that a team can roster a player all season with such limited usage, but the Nats were firmly in rebuild mode last year and thus could make it work.

The 2025 season has played out similarly. Nuñez, now 24, has appeared in only 23 of the Nationals’ 53 games since his recall from Rochester in early April. He’s averaged less than one plate appearance per game in that time, taking 49 turns at the plate and hitting .186/.271/.233. Nuñez has one year and 58 days (1.058) of MLB service time dating back to Opening Day 2024 but still has only 127 major league plate appearances despite never landing on the injured list.

For a player who’d never played in Triple-A at the time of his selection in the Rule 5 Draft, that lack of reps feels particularly problematic — at least from a developmental standpoint. Nuñez hadn’t even hit well in two seasons of Double-A ball.

Virtually no scouting report on Nuñez has suggested he comes with substantial upside at the plate, but being limited to a total of 158 plate appearances between the majors and (briefly, earlier this season) his first taste of Triple-A work doesn’t give Nuñez much of a chance. He’s gone 15-for-18 in stolen base attempts (many as a pinch-runner) and indeed graded out as a plus defensive shortstop.

The Nationals have effectively been carrying Nuñez as a designated pinch-runner/late-inning defensive upgrade for more than a year. He was on the active roster for the entire month of May and received all of eight plate appearances. Seldom do players in today’s game find themselves used with this level of infrequency. The move back down to Triple-A should give Nuñez some much-needed reps in the batter’s box.

In his place, the Nats will summon the 26-year-old Chaparro, whom they acquired from the D-backs last summer in exchange for veteran reliever Dylan Floro. Chaparro opened the season on the injured list due to an oblique strain but has been hot since his activation in early May. The righty-swinging slugger has played in 20 games and totaled 82 plate appearances with Rochester this year, slashing .296/.390/.606 with six homers, four doubles, a 12.2% walk rate and a 24.4% strikeout rate.

Chaparro made a brief big league debut last year, getting into 33 MLB games and slashing .215/.280/.413 with four home runs. He played third base previously in both the D-backs and Yankees systems, but the Nats have used him exclusively at first base and designated hitter in both Triple-A and the big leagues.

There should be opportunity at both spots in the majors. Designated hitter Josh Bell has at least posted passable numbers as a left-handed hitter in 2025, but the veteran switch-hitter has posted a disastrous .051/.178/.103 batting line in 45 plate appearances when swinging from the right side of the dish. Nathaniel Lowe’s splits at first base aren’t quite that pronounced, but he’s still hit very poorly in lefty-versus-lefty situations.

It’s feasible that Chaparro could find himself with a bigger role sooner than later. Bell has been a disappointment after signing a one-year deal in free agency and will be a DFA candidate before long if he can’t improve his overall .179/.274/.342 line on the season. Lowe is a trade candidate, though the fact that his bat has tanked after a strong April showing doesn’t do his market any favors.

One other area where many Nats fans might hope to see some change would be in the rotation, where righty Trevor Williams has struggled, but it doesn’t sound as though there’s anything planned on that front just yet. Asked about the security of Williams’ spot in the rotation after another rough start yesterday, manager Davey Martinez told the Nats beat: “Yeah, he’s in our rotation” (link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). Martinez cited Williams’ pitch count as a reason that he was hooked after 4 1/3 innings, but he’d also allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits.

The 33-year-old Williams, who signed a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $14MM over the winter, has averaged fewer than five innings per start in 2025. He’s only completed six innings twice in 13 starts this year. He’s currently sitting on an ugly 5.91 earned run average, and over his past eight starts, Williams has been torched for a 6.41 ERA with just a 16.3% strikeout rate.

Williams’ 5.91 ERA is nearly three times the 2.03 mark he posted last year in nearly the same sample of work (66 2/3 innings in 2024; 64 innings in 2025). He never seemed likely to sustain last year’s success, which was buoyed by an 80% strand rate, career-low 4.2% homer-to-fly-ball ratio, and a .267 average on balls in play (second-lowest mark of his career, behind 2018’s .261). The extent to which he’s regressed has been a surprise, however. The fluke pendulum has swung the other direction on Williams’ strand rate, going from abnormally high to abnormally low — just 60.4% in 2025. That’s more than 12 points below both the league average and Williams’ career mark.

It’s not all bad luck, though. Williams didn’t have much margin for error with an 88.9 mph average fastball last year, but he’s on even thinner ice now with a “heater” that’s sitting 87.6 mph on the year. An already poor 9.4% swinging-strike rate has fallen to 8.4%. Williams is giving up more contact, particularly within the strike zone, and opponents have seen notable upticks in their average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate against the veteran righty.

Unless Williams can turn things around, it’s hard to see how he can hang onto that rotation spot long-term. MacKenzie Gore is finally breaking out as one of the sport’s premier arms, and rotationmates Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin and Michael Soroka have all been at least serviceable, albeit unspectacular.

Williams is aided by the fact that there’s very little depth that’s pushing for his spot. Lefty DJ Herz is already out for the season due to Tommy John surgery. Josiah Gray won’t be back from his own UCL repair until late in the season, at best. Shinnosuke Ogasawara is on the minor league injured list, as is top prospect Jarlin Susana. Other depth arms like Andry Lara and journeyman Adrian Sampson have struggled this year as well.

Former top prospect Cade Cavalli is a notable exception, as he’s in a tear in Triple-A during his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Cavalli has a 1.52 ERA and 30-to-6 K/BB ratio over his past 23 2/3 innings. The longer the now-26-year-old Cavalli continues to excel, the tougher it’ll be to maintain the status quo at the back of the staff.

The Orioles’ Long-Term Catching Situation

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Things aren’t going well for the Orioles, to state the obvious. They currently have a record of 26-38. They are 8.5 games back of the final American League Wild Card spot. They are behind every A.L. team apart from the White Sox and Athletics. FanGraphs puts Baltimore’s playoff odds at 3.1%. Baseball Prospectus is slightly more optimistic at 9.7%.

Barring a surge in the next few weeks, they will go into the trade deadline as sellers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the club is viewing things that way, unsurprisingly. That’s a disappointing outcome but it also presents opportunities.

Teams on the fringes of contention often have to answer tough questions about how aggressively to attack the deadline. Diving in headfirst as a buyer has short-term appeal but runs the risk of investing in a flawed team while hampering the club in the future. Trying to walk a fine line between buying and selling can sometimes end up as a half measure that doesn’t fully work in either direction.

The O’s should have a more straightforward approach. While they will be sellers, there is still a lot of young talent in the system and on the big league roster. The general strategy should be to move guys with dwindling control while keeping the long-term pieces with an eye towards contending again in 2026. Ramón Urías and/or Ryan O’Hearn could be traded, making more room for Coby Mayo at the infield corners. Cedric Mullins should be flipped, opening playing time for the club’s many young outfielders such as Jud Fabian or Enrique Bradfield.

Another interesting name who should be in the mix is Samuel Basallo. An international signing out of the Dominican Republic in 2021, he got a healthy $1.3MM bonus. Since then, he has continued to climb prospect rankings with his excellent work in the minors. In 364 games on the farm to this point, Basallo has a combined .282/.364/.489 batting line and 134 wRC+. That includes a .252/.365/.595 line and 148 wRC+ at Triple-A this year. He has 13 home runs in just 39 games. His 25% strikeout rate is a bit high, but his 14.7% walk rate is almost double the league average.

There have been some question marks about his defense over the years, but prospect evaluators feel he has improved as he has aged. He is still only 20 years old and won’t turn 21 until August. Baseball America currently lists him as the #17 prospect in baseball. MLB Pipeline has him at #16. Keith Law of The Athletic just did a midseason update and had Basallo at #4. Coming into the year, ESPN had him at #17 and FanGraphs at #5.

The Orioles have one of the most talented catchers in baseball in Adley Rutschman, though he’s has been in a slump for almost a year now. The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman was doing everything according to plan in his first few years in the big leagues.

From 2022-23, Rutschman hit 33 home runs, drew walks at a 13.6% clip and only struck out 16.2% of the time. His .268/.369/.439 line lead to a 130 wRC+, indicating he was 30% better than league average at the plate. The defense also received strong reviews. FanGraphs credited him with 11.3 wins above replacement over those two seasons, tops among all big league catchers in that time. That number doesn’t even account for intangibles, with Rutschman often complimented for his clubhouse leadership and work with a pitching staff.

For the first half of 2024, Rutschman continued on that pace. Through June 26th, he had a .297/.350/.470 line and 135 wRC+. On June 27th, he was hit on his right hand by a foul tip and had that hand wrapped up after the game, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (video clip of the play from MLB.com, though the announcer accidentally refers to Rutschman as James McCann). Maybe the timing is a coincidence, but Rutschman hasn’t been the same since. He sat out the club’s game on June 28th but was back in there on the 29th. He slashed .189/.279/.280 for a 63 wRC+ in the rest of the season.

Here in 2025, the two-time All-Star been better but not back to his previous self. Rutschman has a .227/.321/.374 line and 103 wRC+ this year. Some of that may be luck. He has a .250 batting average on balls in play this season, which is well below his previous level and this year’s .290 league average. His 90.8 miles per hour average exit velocity is actually a career high. His 9.4% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate are also personal bests.

His batted ball metrics were down in the second half of 2024. Perhaps the most logical explanation is that Rutschman wasn’t 100% healthy after taking that foul tip last year, whereas he’s been mostly healthy but unlucky so far in 2025. He’s had a few knocks this year but has avoided the injured list. Maybe his results will even out in the long run and this dip will eventually look like a footnote. For what it’s worth, I personally think that’s the best and most likely explanation.

Even if Rutschman’s slump was just a blip and he’s back to his old self, the Orioles will still likely have to make some decisions about their plans behind the plate.  Rutschman is now just over two years away from free agency, as he’s slated to hit the open market after the 2027 season. Despite a late-May call up in 2022, he earned a full year of service by finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting. There hasn’t been any indication that an extension is especially likely. With 2025 trending toward being a lost cause, the O’s may only have two more real bites of the apple with Rutschman.

There’s also Basallo’s health to consider. Though he continues mashing the ball, he has dealt with some injuries, including a hamstring issue and some elbow inflammation. Those issues, particularly the latter, have cut into his ability to get work behind the plate. In order to get him regular plate appearances, the O’s have put him at first base and in the designated hitter slot with some frequency. This year, he has 17 starts as a DH, nine at first and 11 behind the plate. He only has 90 innings in the catcher position this year. Last year, he had 35 starts as the DH, 32 at first base and 56 as the catcher.

That means it’s not a strict either/or situation. It’s entirely possible to imagine a scenario wherein Rutschman and Basallo share the catching duties and the DH slot while Basallo also gets some time at first base. Gary Sánchez was the planned backup to Rutschman this year, but he’s largely been hurt and is an impending free agent regardless. O’Hearn is an impending free agent as well. Ryan Mountcastle can be controlled through 2026 but looks like a non-tender candidate since he was having a poor year and is now going to be on the IL for months. Mayo could take over at first next year with Jordan Westburg at third base. Urias might still be on the roster next year, but the likely departures of O’Hearn and Mountcastle will free up some plate appearances.

Basallo’s bat will seemingly be good enough to play anywhere, but his offensive contributions will be more valuable if he can be a regular catcher. The Orioles might prefer to use the first base and DH spots for Mayo and their many young outfielders. If the O’s wanted to open the catcher position for Basallo, there might be some temptation to consider trading Rutschman.

Doing so this summer is not likely. Trading catchers midseason can be difficult because the backstop would have to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly. There’s also the fact that Rutschman’s value is likely down, on account of last year’s struggles and this year’s slow start. As referenced earlier, better days may be ahead, so waiting may be the smart play. With Basallo still a work in progress, there shouldn’t be short-term urgency to get a deal done.

But over the next few years, it’s possible that the pressure builds. Basallo coming up to the majors this year is totally viable, especially if the O’s sell off some pieces at the deadline and open up playing time. If he can hit big league pitching and continues maturing defensively, his viability as a major league catcher will grow. All the while, Rutschman’s window of control will be narrowing. As mentioned, he’s now about two and a half seasons from the open market. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more raises in arbitration.

As the window of control shrinks and his salary grows, his trade value will drop. That’s a tricky balance the O’s will have to consider. They have long had a big collection of position player talent but have struggled to have enough starting pitching. They have increased spending a bit in the past year but still haven’t made massive investments in the rotation, which has contributed to their unraveling this year.

Trading Rutschman and handing the catching duties to Basallo would certainly be a massive risk right now. But over time, perhaps it starts to look less risky, depending on how Basallo dives into the major league waters.

For other clubs, Rutschman would certainly hold appeal. Free agency usually isn’t a great place to find catching solutions. Backstops tend to show their age a bit more quickly than other players, due to the demands of the position. By the time players get to free agency, they are usually around 30 years old. Rutschman is now 27 and will be 28 and 29 in his final two arbitration seasons.

It’s practically a given that there would be teams willing to surrender controllable starting pitching to acquire Rutschman down the road. If so, the O’s will have to think about the perfect time to make that strike. Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton are all slated for free agency this winter, so the rotation should be the club’s primary target again in the coming offseason, even with Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish coming back from injuries.

There are no easy answers here and there are still many different ways it could go. But whenever Basallo does come up, he will start to get tested and the O’s will gradually get more clarity on who he can be. As that is happening, the window will be slowly shutting on the Rutschman era, barring a surprise extension. As those strings unravel simultaneously, decisions will have to be made.

Photo courtesy of Joe Camporeale, Kim Klement Neitzel, and D. Ross Cameron, Imagn Images

Angels Select Shaun Anderson, Designate Garrett McDaniels For Assignment

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The Angels announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Shaun Anderson.  Fellow righty José Fermín has been optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake as the corresponding active roster move.  To open a 40-man spot, left-hander Garrett McDaniels has been reinstated from the injured list and designated for assignment.

Anderson has a 6.30 ERA over 10 relief innings for the Halos this season, with most of that damage caused by three home runs allowed during that small sample of work. Los Angeles signed Anderson to a minors contract in February and selected him to the active roster for the first time a month ago, but designated the righty for assignment in the wake of his struggles.

The home run ball has long been an issue for Anderson, who has a 6.11 career ERA in the majors over 162 innings with eight different teams. Despite his lack of production at the big league level, Anderson has consistently kept drawing interest due to his ability to work as a swingman, though he hasn’t gotten much consistent work as a starter since the 2019 season when he pitched for the Giants. There is also a bit of a “quad-A” air to the righty’s career, as Anderson has pitched decently well at the Triple-A level and during a brief stint overseas in the KBO League in 2023.

Anderson will now get a chance to cover some innings and see if he can stick in the L.A. bullpen, with McDaniels the odd man out on the 40-man roster.  McDaniels was a Rule 5 Draft pick out of the Dodgers organization back in December, and his debut season in the majors saw the southpaw post a 5.91 ERA over 10 2/3 relief innings, with more walks allowed (eight) than strikeouts (six).  In fairness to McDaniels, he had only two games of Double-A experience on his resume before being exposed to MLB hitters this season, and he didn’t make his Triple-A debut until this year, while rehabbing from biceps tendinitis.

McDaniels’ Rule 5 status would carry over if another team acquired him via claim or trade during the DFA period, so this new club would also have to carry McDaniels on its active roster for the entire roster in order to fully obtain his rights.  If McDaniels clears waivers, the Angels would have to offer him back to the Dodgers for $50K (i.e. half of the original $100K fee the Angels paid the Dodgers for making the Rule 5 selection).

Fantasy Baseball: The New CSW Darlings

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Hello, friends.

As I end a three-day fog of little kids' softball games, swim meets, and birthday parties, let's use one of my (and many people's) favorite pitching stats to predict future success, CSW%.

CSW% is lovely not only for its usefulness but also for the sheer simplicity. You take a pitcher's called strikes, add them to his swinging ones, and divide by their total pitches. Bingo-bango, you have CSW%, a stat that consistently has some of the highest returns when it comes to predicting strikeout rates.

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Mariners Designate Leody Taveras For Assignment, Outright Casey Lawrence

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The Mariners announced that they have recalled outfielder Dominic Canzone from Triple-A Tacoma. In a corresponding move, fellow outfielder Leody Taveras has been designated for assignment. The M’s also announced that right-hander Casey Lawrence, who was designated for assignment a couple of days ago, has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A.

Seattle somewhat surprisingly claimed Taveras off waivers earlier this year, despite him being owed about $3.73MM at the time of that move. Seattle had been hamstrung financially throughout the offseason, with ownership providing the front office a reported $15-16MM to try to add as many as three bats to the lineup. Presumably, ownership was emboldened by a hot start to the season and gave the green light to a buy-low opportunity on Taveras while both Victor Robles and Luke Raley were on the injured list.

Simply put, it hasn’t worked. At the time of his DFA in Texas, Taveras was hitting just .241/.259/.342 with a career-worst 28% strikeout rate and exit velocity and hard-hit numbers. The switch-hitter’s batted-ball metrics have improved, but the bottom-line results have only gotten worse.

In 98 plate appearances with the M’s, Taveras has posted an anemic .174/.198/.272 batting line with a 27.6% strikeout rate. He’s cut down on his chase rate and been more aggressive within the strike zone, but the Mariners, who’ve dropped 10 of their past 14 games and fallen 2.5 games back of the Astros in the AL West, apparently don’t feel they have the luxury of waiting to see if the improved approach and stronger contact eventually manifest in better production.

Taveras will be placed on waivers or traded within the next five days. If he clears waivers, he’ll surely accept an outright assignment to Tacoma, as he doesn’t have enough service time to reject an outright and retain the remainder of his salary. As of this writing, he’s still owed about $2.86MM of this year’s $4.75MM salary. Any team that claims Taveras would be responsible for that sum, but they’d also gain control over the switch-hitting speedster through the 2027 season.

Taveras gave the Rangers two solid years from 2022-23, slashing a combined .264/.311/.400 with plus defense and the flexibility to play any of the three outfield positions. Even in a down year in 2024, when he batted .229/.289/.352, he provided value on the basepaths and with the glove. Perhaps that track record, plus the encouraging trends in his plate discipline and batted-ball quality, would be enough to get him a look elsewhere. The Royals reportedly had interest in claiming Taveras last time he was on waivers but balked at the $3.73MM he had left to be paid out. By the time he hits waivers, the remaining commitment to him will be nearly $1MM less than the first time he was on waivers.

In place of Taveras, Canzone will get another opportunity to prove he can be a piece of the puzzle at T-Mobile Park. He hit just .196/.271/.381 in 188 plate appearances with the Mariners last year and went hitless in three plate appearances earlier this season. The 27-year-old is having a big year in Triple-A, however, mashing at a .296/.360/.564 clip with 13 home runs, a 9.1% walk rate and a 21.3% strikeout rate. He’s batting .382/.488/.529 with as many walks as strikeouts across his past nine games.

As for Lawrence, this is just the latest trip around the Seattle-Tacoma DFA carousel for the journeyman right-hander. He’s now had five different stints with the Mariners in 2025 alone. The soft-tossing 37-year-old has pitched 15 innings with a flat 3.00 ERA for the Mariners this year, plus one lone 2 2/3-inning appearance for the Blue Jays, wherein he allowed three runs.

Overall, Lawrence has 17 2/3 MLB frames with a 4.08 earned run average on the season. His 8.8% strikeout rate is as low as you’ll find, but he’s walked only 1.3% of opponents. The Mariners are effectively utilizing Lawrence and fellow journeyman Jesse Hahn as 41st and 42nd members of their 40-man roster, selecting them to the majors when they need an extra arm for some length and then designating them for assignment and passing them through waivers to bring back an optionable arm as needed.

It’s a tumultuous way to earn a living in some respects, but the team has been upfront with the righty about his role and Lawrence is clearly amenable to the setup. He’s picked up 34 days of major league service time this year — players accrue MLB pay and service while in DFA limbo and/or on outright waivers — and thus banked at least $142K in major league salary alone (which doesn’t even include his minor league pay).

Red Sox Designate Robert Stock For Assignment, Select Brian Van Belle

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The Red Sox announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Brian Van Belle. He will take the roster spot of fellow righty Robert Stock, who has been designated for assignment.

Stock, 35, was just added to the roster a couple of days ago. Facing the Yankees on Friday, starter Walker Buehler only lasted two innings, in a game that finished in a 9-6 loss. Zack Kelly and Brennan Bernardino came in after Buehler before Cooper Criswell mopped up the final three frames.

Criswell likely wasn’t going to be available for a few days, so the Sox optioned him down and brought up Stock to give the bullpen a fresh arm. In last night’s 11-7 victory over the Yanks, the Sox used eight pitchers to get the necessary 27 outs, leaving them in a somewhat taxed position going into tonight’s contest against the Rays.

Stock was one of those eight pitchers and he wasn’t terribly efficient. He was put into the game in the bottom of the ninth with an 11-5 lead. He faced six batters, only retiring two of them, while throwing 30 pitches. Closer Aroldis Chapman had to come in and get the final out.

That’ll get Stock bumped off the roster for the second time this year. He signed a minor league deal with the Sox in the winter and was also called up in April, under somewhat similar circumstances. Boston had just played a doubleheader and wanted a fresh arm. Stock made one appearance and was designated for assignment right after. He cleared waivers and stuck with the club, which allowed him to come back up in recent days. It’s possible that the same sequence of events plays out in the coming days. Stock has a 10.13 earned run average in those two big league outings this year but a solid 3.09 ERA in Triple-A.

Van Belle, 28, has never been a huge name among prospect evaluators but is having a good season. An undrafted free agent in 2020, he has climbed the minor league ladder and been in Triple-A since 2023. This year, he has logged 51 innings over eight starts and four relief appearances with a 2.29 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate isn’t strong but his 3.4% walk rate is tiny and he’s been getting ground balls on 51.7% of balls in play.

As mentioned, the pitching staff got a lot of work yesterday. Van Belle will replace Stock and give the club a fresh arm capable of tossing multiple innings. He’ll be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

Photo courtesy of David Butler II, Imagn Images

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR's Steve Adams is hosting a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! We'll get this going at 2pm, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time. Looking forward to it!
  • Hello! Sorry to start a couple minutes late. Let's get underway!

Marlins

  • Who on the team gets the All Star nod? Agustin Ramirez?

Steve Adams

  • I would imagine it's Kyle Stowers. They've both been good overall and cooled off recently but Stowers has been up all year. I guess you could say Ryan Weathers if he makes another six or seven really good starts between now and then, but Stowers feels likeliest to me right now

Beano

  • How low can W Adames numbers go this year? A career year repeat was out of the question, but a total bust is surprising - no?

Steve Adams

  • Yeah, it's a pretty big surprise. It's also worrying, because the main culprit I'd point to is bat speed. Adames is actually chasing less often and making more contact in the zone. His strikeout and walk rates are similar to last year. He's not suddenly hitting a ton of grounders -- though his GB% is up a slight bit, nothing major.

    He's tied for the eighth-biggest drop in bat speed, as measured by Statcast, among 175 qualified big leaguers. That's not great, obviously. He was at 73.6 mph in 2024 and is down to 71.8 mph in 2025.

    You never know precisely how healthy a player is. Maybe he's working through something that's hampering his shoulder or wrist strength. Maybe he made a tweak in his mechanics moving to a bigger park and it's having an adverse effect.

    It's impossible to say, but you're plenty justified to be concerned with the first two-plus months at this point.

Kegger

  • Do you see only rentals moving at deadline or bigger deals happening?

Steve Adams

  • There will always be some players with multiple years of team control moved. The Rays are always a team to watch here because of their constantly strong farm and their constant payroll crunches. Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Drew Rasmussen come to mind. Pete Fairbanks. The Rockies waited too long to trade Ryan McMahon, but they're so bad this year that I wonder if they'll finally listen on guys like him or Kyle Freeland
  • Marlins obviously will listen on Alcantara, but they'll want to avoid selling too low. Ryan Weathers and Anthony Bender will get looks. Jesus Sanchez, too.
  • Pirates will have David Bednar and Dennis Santana, both controlled through 2026. Bailey Falter is another one there. Nathaniel Lowe in Washington
  • Even win-now clubs looking to buy will be forced to part with some young major leaguers; that's the nature when there's a limited inventory of available players for buy-side teams to target and when teams are more reluctant than ever to trade true prospects.

Kevin in Ranger Texas

  • Idea of Texas trading Mahle or Corbin or Gray after he comes back, for a consistent hitter to help in the lineup, hopefully the guys we have now can turn it around but…. Adolis is no help, Jung has slowed, Seager has not helped out. Should we trade ? And stay in it.

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Rich Hill Has June 15 Opt-Out In Royals Deal

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Veteran left-hander Rich Hill signed a minor league deal last month. It appears the club will soon have to make a decision on whether or not to call him up. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that there’s a June 15th opt-out in that deal.

Since signing that pact, Hill has made four minor league starts, two in the Complex League and then two more for Triple-A Omaha. He went four scoreless in the first outing but allowed four earned runs in four frames in the next one. In his first Triple-A start, he allowed three earned runs in five innings. Most recently, he went six innings without allowing an earned run.

Put it together and Hill has a 3.32 earned run average in 19 innings. He struck out 31.5% of batters faced and only walked 4.1%, though those numbers were far better in the two Complex League outings, striking out 41.9% of batters faced with no walks there compared to a 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in the Triple-A starts.

However you cut it up, it’s a small sample of work. Hill is 45 years old and it’s hard to guess how effective he can be against major league hitters at this point. He had a decent stretch as recently as the first half of 2023, posting a 4.23 ERA through his first 13 starts with the Pirates. However, he faded from there, with a 6.57 ERA in the remainder of the season. The Bucs flipped him to the Padres but San Diego ended up bumping him to the bullpen and he finished the year with a 5.41 ERA overall.

He tried to get creative last year, with a plan of not signing until midway through the season. The idea was to spend more time with his family and also save his bullets for a second-half playoff push. It didn’t play out as he imagined, however. He signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox in the middle of August and got called up for four relief outings before being released.

Hill has a lot of big league success under his belt, including solid seasons with ERAs near 4.00 in both 2021 and 2022. But given his age and the less consistent results of late, he’s more of a gamble now.

The Royals also don’t have a strong starting pitching need. In fact, they have one of the best rotations in baseball. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo were on the injured list not too long ago but both are now active again. Noah Cameron got some starts to cover for those injuries and has been great, with a 0.85 ERA through five appearances now. He won’t be able to keep that up forever, especially with a subpar 16% strikeout rate. Still, even if he’s the club’s #6 behind Lugo, Ragans, Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen, that’s a great setup for the club.

The club is off today and also has off-days on the next two Mondays. Cameron is listed as tomorrow’s probable starter but it’s possible he’ll get optioned after that, now that Lugo and Ragans are back. He could then be recalled towards the end of the month if the club wants a sixth starter when they start a stretch of 16 games in a row. Kyle Wright is also on a rehab assignment and building up his workload at the moment.

There’s not an amazing path for Hill, unless the Royals want to add some long relief to the bullpen. It’s possible the situation changes in the coming days. Perhaps Lugo or Ragans will re-aggravate their respective injuries, or someone else could get hurt. Though other clubs around the league are already dealing with plenty of injury absences, so perhaps there are better opportunities for Hill elsewhere.

Hill should have a chance to make one more Triple-A start before his opt-out decision but it’s possible he’ll be a free agent again soon. If he makes it to the majors, with the Royals or any other club, he’ll be easily the oldest player in the league. Justin Verlander is currently the oldest at 42 years old, born in February of 1983. Hill was born in March of 1980, almost three years earlier.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images

AJ Smith-Shawver Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Braves announced Monday that right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery this morning. He’ll miss the remainder of the 2025 season and a good portion of the 2026 season as well, though an exact timetable will hinge on how his recovery proceeds. Generally, it’s best to assume an absence of at least 14 months, but every rehab varies.

Smith-Shawver’s injury puts an early end to what was originally looking like a terrific rookie campaign. Though he’d pitched in the majors in both 2023 and 2024, the 22-year-old righty narrowly retained that rookie status heading into this season. He stormed out of the gate with a 2.33 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate in his first 38 2/3 innings, holding opponents to two or fewer runs in six of his first seven starts.

The Nationals shelled Smith-Shawver for seven runs in three innings on May 22, however, and he departed his next start on May 29 with an injury after just 2 2/3 innings. It’s never encouraging when a pitcher departs due to elbow discomfort, and all signs in the immediate aftermath proved increasingly ominous. Smith-Shawver told reporters after the game that he’d felt a “pop” in his elbow. He was placed on the 15-day IL with a strain the same day but transferred to the 60-day IL just 18 hours later. Barely 24 hours after he’d exited with a trainer, the Braves announced that Smith-Shawver had been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament.

With Smith-Shawver joining Reynaldo Lopez on the shelf — Lopez had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in April but could potentially return late in the year — Atlanta’s pitching depth is increasingly stretched. They currently have Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder in the rotation. That’s a solid group on paper, but Strider hasn’t looked at all like himself in his first few games back from his own UCL repair.

The depth beyond that current quintet is a bit suspect. Davis Daniel and Nathan Wiles both have solid numbers with Triple-A Gwinnett and are on the 40-man roster, but they’re both relatively soft-tossing righties who were acquired in minor offseason swaps — Wiles for cash this past spring and Daniel for recent 14th-round pick Mitch Farris (after Daniel had been designated for assignment by the Angels). Hurston Waldrep, the Braves’ 2023 first-rounder and a former top prospect, has had a disastrous season in Gwinnett. Non-roster depth arms like Ian Anderson, Zach Thompson and Jose Suarez have all already cleared waivers this season and struggled to varying levels in Gwinnett. Suarez recently landed on the minor league injured list as well.

Looking longer term, Smith-Shawver will accrue major league service time and pay while he rehabs from this morning’s surgery. He’ll finish out the season with more than a year of service time but won’t be on track for Super Two status in arbitration. It’s also notable that because he was only in the minors for 16 days earlier this year when Atlanta sent him down, he won’t exhaust what would have been his final option year if he’d been sent down later in the season. He’ll retain one more minor league option year. Smith-Shawver will be on pace for arbitration eligibility in the 2027-28 offseason and for free agency in the 2030-31 offseason (though that remaining minor league option could impact either trajectory).

Poll: What Will The Rangers Do At The Deadline?

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While the 2023 World Series champs missed the playoffs last year, a healthy Jacob deGrom and offseason additions like Joc Pederson and Jake Burger seemed to leave the Rangers in a good place to fight their way back to the top of the AL West this year. That hasn’t worked out very well so far, as despite an elite performance from their starting rotation lackluster offense from virtually everyone (save Wyatt Langford) has allowed the Rangers to fall to a 31-35 record. That leaves them 5.5 games out of the AL West entering play today, and 4.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot.

It’s a tough position for the club to find itself in, particularly when one considers the team’s position regarding the luxury tax. It’s long been apparent than ducking under that first threshold is a priority for Texas this year and many of the moves they’ve made so far, from taking a flier on Patrick Corbin to fill out the rotation to letting Leody Taveras go on waivers, have been at least partially in service to that goal. RosterResource now estimates that Texas has a payroll of just under $235MM for luxury tax purposes, giving them around $6MM of space to work with under the first threshold.

That’s not a ton of space, even when considering that any players added will only need to be paid the prorated portion of their remaining deal. In that sense, indecision on whether to buy or sell could actually help the Rangers if they do decide to buy because any acquisitions will require less cash. With that being said, if Texas can’t get more from individual key players like Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung it could be hard for the team to cover all of its needs on a shoestring budget even if they do stay relevant in the Wild Card picture.

One way to handle that would be to try and both buy and sell simultaneously at the deadline. Perhaps someone like Jon Gray (once he’s healthy) or Adolis Garcia (if his numbers improve a bit) could be dealt elsewhere for salary relief to allow the club to take a bigger swing and acquire a bat like Marcell Ozuna to help spark the offense. It’s also possible they could simply offer a larger return package to any clubs they buy from in exchange for the selling team eating most or all of the player’s salary. That would likely require the Rangers to firmly make their way into the playoff conversation from here, however, as teams are often hesitant to part with high-level talent to add players unless the postseason is fully in reach.

That could leave the Rangers to do at least some selling. But if they fall further in the standings, it’s not hard to imagine a larger sell-off. Right-hander Tyler Mahle has been nothing short of fantastic this year with a 2.02 ERA in 13 starts, and he should be one of the more highly coveted rentals if made available. Hoby Milner and Chris Martin would both be extremely attractive relief options for bullpen-needy clubs, as well. The team could even attempt to restructure their payroll in a more significant way by seeing if there are any takers on deGrom’s hefty salary, though moving that kind of money midseason is always challenging.

The final option on the table for the Rangers would be to simply do nothing. It’s fairly rare for a club to stand completely pat at the deadline, and the Rangers in particular have not typically been afraid to make moves under Chris Young’s leadership. With that being said, however, the club’s precarious position relative to the luxury tax and the aforementioned potential benefit of waiting until as close to the deadline as possible to make any buy-side moves could leave the team in position to risk doing very little to alter the club this summer, instead riding with the group they currently have and leaving large scale changes for an offseason that should offer more financial flexibility.

How do MLBTR readers think the Rangers will ultimately approach this summer’s trade deadline? Will they buy, sell, both, or neither? Have your say in the poll below:

How will the Rangers handle the deadline?
The Rangers will hedge their bets by both buying and selling at the deadline. 39.50% (845 votes)
The Rangers will mostly stand pat at the deadline and make no significant moves at all. 23.52% (503 votes)
The Rangers will sell at the deadline without making any significant buy-side moves. 23.24% (497 votes)
The Rangers will buy at the deadline without selling off any significant pieces. 13.74% (294 votes)
Total Votes: 2,139

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