Quick Hits: Mets, Bauer, KBO, Yang
In perhaps the least surprising “upset” of all-time, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became Super Bowl Champions last night. With the NFL season wrapped, we’re that much closer to baseball season. Here’s the latest from around the game…
- Mets Team President Sandy Alderson has never gotten as far along in negotiations with a free agent as he was with Trevor Bauer without consummating a deal, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Simply put: the Mets thought Bauer would be a New York Met. No term sheet was signed, however, and Bauer signed instead with the Dodgers. It was a tough few hours for the Mets, who went from believing they’d added the best free agent pitcher on the market one minute to not only losing Bauer, but seeing Marcell Ozuna re-sign with their division rival, all in the span of a few hours. On the one hand, the Mets would seem to have $40MM burning a whole in their pocket, leaving room for another significant addition. At the same time, there’s not another top free agent available that would warrant close to that kind of financial commitment.
- MLB checked on the status of KBO free agent Yang Hyeon-jon, per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (via Twitter). Basically, Yoo explains, this means that there’s at least one team that has expressed interest in signing Yang. Looking ahead to his age-33 season, Yang has spent his entire career with the Kia Tigers of the KBO. The southpaw had a bit of a down year in 2020, 5.17 ERA across 172 1/3 innings with a 20.0 percent strikeout rate and 8.6 percent walk rate. With a 3.83 career ERA across 14 seasons, Yang could certainly be viewed as a rotation candidate, though he has made 101 career appearances out of the pen as well.
Pedro Gomez Passes Away
The baseball community mourns the sudden passing of ESPN Reporter Pedro Gomez this morning. Gomez unexpectedly passed away at his home yesterday at the age of 58. Teams, players and reporters from all around the game have taken to social media to share their memories of the beloved journalist. MLB and the MLBPA joined the community in expressing their sadness over the loss, while ESPN shared the news of his passing with this tribute.
ESPN president Jimmy Pitaro released a statement, saying, “We are shocked and saddened to learn that our friend and colleague Pedro Gomez has passed away. Pedro was an elite journalist at the highest level and his professional accomplishments are universally recognized. More importantly, Pedro was a kind, dear friend to us all. Our hearts are with Pedro’s family and all who love him at this extraordinarily difficult time.”
Gomez’s lasting impact on the game could not be clearer than in the tremendous outpouring of support over the last few hours. Gomez leaves behind a wife and three children, one of whom is currently a pitcher in the Boston Red Sox organization. Everyone at MLBTR would like to share our condolences with Pedro’s friends and family. He will be missed.
NL Central Notes: Turner, Wong, Doolittle, Flaherty
The Brewers were known to be one of the teams linked to Justin Turner‘s market, and Milwaukee still has interest in Turner even after signing Kolten Wong, FanSided’s Robert Murray tweets. A deal with Turner may be something of a longshot at this point, as Murray notes that the Dodgers are still considered the favorites for the third baseman, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Brewers are just “on the periphery of the bidding for Turner.”
Still, the Brew Crew might see an opportunity to strike given the overall lack of action by NL Central teams this winter. Milwaukee has a projected payroll of just under $92MM for the coming season, and signing Turner for something in the ballpark of a $13MM average annual value wouldn’t put the Brewers far beyond the $102MM they were projected to spend last season prior to the prorated salary reductions for the 60-game schedule. If necessary, president of baseball operations David Stearns could also look to swing some trades to create a bit of extra payroll space either before or during the season. While some creativity may be required, it isn’t as far-fetched as it may seem that the Brewers could still pry Turner away from more free-spending suitors like the Dodgers or Blue Jays.
More from the NL Central…
- Speaking of Wong, reports throughout the offseason indicated the Cardinals were ready to move on after declining their $12.5MM club option on his services back in October, and Wong confirmed as much in a recent chat with reporters (including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The second baseman said the Cardinals “talked here and there” with his representatives “but it wasn’t much, kind of checking in, feeling things out. We never really engaged.” By contrast, “the Brewers were on me at the beginning ]of the offseason]….I just felt like a top priority. They made it feel like home.” Several teams were linked to Wong throughout the winter but the Brewers ended up landing the two-time Gold Glover for a two-year contract worth $18MM in guaranteed money.
- Sean Doolittle also spoke with reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) about his own free agent experience, which concluded when he signed a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Reds last week. Cincinnati was in touch with Doolittle early in the free agent process and he ended up choosing them amongst a few suitors, though Doolittle admitted that he held out hope for much of the winter that he would end up re-signing with the Nationals. There were some negotiations between Doolittle and the Nats but once Washington signed Brad Hand in late January, Doolittle began to pivot to other teams.
- The arbitration hearing between Jack Flaherty and the Cardinals took place on Friday, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, so a decision should be coming any time about Flaherty’s 2021 salary. The right-hander is looking for $3.9MM, while the Cards countered with a $3MM figure. While this is Flaherty’s first year of arbitration eligibility, Goold observes that this is actually the third straight year of some salary-related contention between the two sides, as the Cardinals renewed Flaherty’s pre-arb contracts in each of the previous two seasons after Flaherty didn’t agree to the team’s figure as a matter of “principle.” Goold writes that Flaherty and the Cards came within $300K of agreeing to a deal prior to the arbitration deadline, and continued to have talks even leading up to the hearing. This would seemingly imply that a contract extension was being discussed, since St. Louis otherwise wouldn’t re-open negotiations after the arb deadline due to the team’s “file and trial” strategy for arbitration cases.
Who Will Be The Last Top-50 Free Agent To Sign?
After a slow start, the 2020-21 free agent market finally sprung to life over the last few weeks. The result is a lot of red ink (i.e. signing details) on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only ten of the players that original list remaining without a contract for the 2021 season or beyond.
With less than two weeks to go before Spring Training camps are scheduled to open, the question has gone from “when will anyone sign?” to “who is left to be signed?” There are still plenty of prominent names remaining, including multiple former All-Stars, Gold Glovers, a Cy Young Award winner, and former World Series champions — including a very prominent member of the defending champion Dodgers.
Any of these players could sign at any time, of course, but it’s possible Yadier Molina could be back with the Cardinals very soon, given the reports of an agreement that could be made official now that the Caribbean Series is over. Justin Turner may also be down to a choice between four teams, and Jackie Bradley Jr. still has interest from a reported half-dozen teams.
With Trevor Bauer now a Dodger, interest seems to be picking up for starting pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. That could, in turn, spark some offers further down the ladder for veteran hurlers like Rick Porcello or Cole Hamels, as there hasn’t been much public buzz about either pitcher this winter.
On the bullpen front, Trevor Rosenthal has gotten interest from a few teams this winter, though several of his known suitors have since moved on to other late-game options. However, the “no such thing as too much pitching” mantra would certainly seem to apply to relievers as well heading into a 2021 season that may see several starters on innings limits as they rebuild arm strength. That would imply that the likes of Rosenthal and Mark Melancon could still be of interest to teams who already have a closer in place, in an effort to create a super-bullpen.
To add a couple more names to the mix, this poll also includes Brett Gardner and Brad Miller, who were honorable mentions on the original Top 50 list. They were bumped up to the 50-player slate for MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest after Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman made early exits from the market by accepting qualifying offers.
Of these twelve, who is your pick as the last free agent standing? (poll link for app users)
Who will be the last player to sign?
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Cole Hamels 24% (4,445)
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Rick Porcello 16% (2,997)
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Brad Miller 12% (2,280)
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Brett Gardner 10% (1,892)
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Jackie Bradley Jr. 10% (1,767)
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Mark Melancon 6% (1,147)
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Justin Turner 6% (1,073)
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James Paxton 4% (708)
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Taijuan Walker 3% (552)
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Jake Odorizzi 3% (536)
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Yadier Molina 3% (535)
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Trevor Rosenthal 3% (534)
Total votes: 18,466
Blue Jays Interested In Marwin Gonzalez
Marwin Gonzalez‘s list of known suitors continues to grow, as Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi (via Twitter) reports that the Blue Jays have interest in the utilityman. The exact level of interest isn’t known, as Davidi notes that Toronto could be taking only a due-diligence look at a notable free agent who is still on the market this late in the offseason, though the Blue Jays have been interested in Gonzalez in the past.
While the Blue Jays’ infield trio of Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio all carry some level of multi-positional versatility, Santiago Espinal and Richard Urena are the top current options for the backup infield role, so Gonzalez would provide a veteran upgrade. Gonzalez is also a switch-hitter, adding left-handed depth to the mostly right-handed hitting Jays roster.
Of course, Gonzalez hasn’t been particularly effective as a left-handed batter in any of the last three seasons — or against righties either during a tough 2020 season. The 31-year-old hit only .211/.286/.320 over 199 total plate appearances with the Twins last year, and might be best positioned as a bench piece rather than as a player who could be counted on for a platoon role or semi-regular usage at multiple positions. Gonzalez’s calling card is versatility, as he has clocked lots of playing time at all four infield spots and the two corner outfield positions over his nine MLB seasons.
Toronto joins the Red Sox, Phillies, Twins, Mets, and Tigers as teams linked to Gonzalez over the course of the winter. This group could possibly comprise the half-dozen teams MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand recently reported as looking at Gonzalez, unless one of these clubs has since moved on, or if a mystery team is also in the mix.
This Date In Transactions History: Marlins-Phillies Realmuto Trade
On February 7, 2019, the Phillies and Marlins lined up on a monumental intra-division trade. Miami sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia in exchange for pitching prospects Sixto Sánchez and Will Stewart, as well as MLB catcher Jorge Alfaro. The then-rebuilding Marlins relinquished their final pair of seasons of club control over one of the game’s premier catchers in exchange for longer-term value. With Realmuto now having played out those two years in Philadelphia, it’s worth taking stock of the progress of the players involved.
To date, the trade is shaping up to be a rare win-win. Realmuto more than lived up to his end of the bargain. Since the start of 2019, the former third-rounder has hit an above-average .273/.333/.492, all while rating as a high-end pitch framer and throwing out an elite 42.9% of attempting basestealers. He and Yasmani Grandal are well clear of the rest of the field when looking at FanGraphs’ WAR leaders among catchers the past two seasons. The Phillies didn’t find much in the way of team success, but that’s not the fault of Realmuto, who has been one of the sport’s two most productive catchers since the trade.
Of course, the Phillies-Realmuto relationship didn’t end once he reached free agency. Philadelphia brought back the franchise backstop on a five-year contract last month. The Realmuto acquisition would have been a successful one for the Phils regardless of whether they managed to re-sign him; trading for Realmuto during his arbitration years is a separate decision from the one to sign him to a long-term deal in free agency. Still, the Phillies acquiring Realmuto two years ago certainly couldn’t have hurt their chances of winning the bidding for him this winter.
The Marlins’ end of the deal is a bit more uncertain (as one would expect when a team trades away an established star for a group of talented younger players) but certainly looks bright. Sánchez was seen as the prize of the package at the time of the deal, and he’s only elevated his stock since then. The young righty spent most of the 2019 season in Double-A, where he was very good, and then made his MLB debut last season.
Over his first seven starts at the big league level, Sánchez pitched to a 3.46 ERA/4.18 SIERA. His strikeout rate (20.9%) was a bit below-average, but Sánchez posted better than average marks in both walk rate (7.0%) and ground ball rate (58.0%) as a 22-year-old. It may be too early to definitively declare the flamethrower a future ace, but he’s clearly a central piece of a young rotation the Marlins hope will allow them to perennially reach the postseason, as the Fish did in 2020.
Alfaro and Stewart remain in the Miami organization, but their respective stocks have fallen since the trade. After a decent 2019 season, Alfaro struggled in 2020 and was eventually supplanted on the depth chart by Chad Wallach. Stewart, meanwhile, had a difficult 2019 season in High-A. Eligible for this offseason’s Rule 5 draft, Stewart was left off Miami’s 40-man roster but went unselected.
Even if neither of the secondary pieces in the deal become core pieces for the Marlins, the Realmuto-Sánchez central framework of the trade will be fascinating to follow. There figures to be plenty of times for broadcasters and fans to rehash the details of the blockbuster when the two square off against one another over the coming years.
Latest On Mets, Jackie Bradley Jr.
3:45 pm: Even after today’s signing of Almora, the Mets haven’t closed the door on bringing in Bradley, hears Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (Twitter link).
12:18 pm: Jackie Bradley Jr. stands out as the clear top remaining free agent option for teams looking for a center fielder. It’s not surprising the defensive stalwart seems to be drawing decent interest as spring training approaches. “About a half-dozen teams” remain in the running for Bradley, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.
The Mets have been among the teams most often connected to Bradley this offseason. New York agreed to terms with center fielder Albert Almora Jr. this morning, though. While Puma writes that the Almora addition “doesn’t necessarily” foreclose the Mets from continuing to pursue Bradley, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News hears New York is indeed now out on the former Gold Glove winner.
That’s not to say the Almora signing ends the Mets’ offseason. Andy Martino of SNY reports that New York remains engaged in the market for free agent pitching and depth pieces on the position player side; they could yet make another addition (or additions) in the coming days, Martino says. Bradley, though, would’ve certainly been a more significant position player pickup than mere bench help. The 30-year-old is coming off a strong season and has apparently set the rather lofty goal of finding a contract of at least four years in length this winter.
Meanwhile, Buster Olney of ESPN relays speculation (Twitter link) from agents not affiliated with Bradley’s representatives at the Boras Corporation that the Astros, Giants and Red Sox appear his likeliest landing spots. All three teams have been connected to Bradley this offseason, although Olney wrote earlier this week that a return to Boston looked unlikely. That may still be the case, as a Red Sox reunion would seemingly only be in the cards if Bradley’s asking price falls due to an unfriendly market, Olney notes.
Pirates Sign Chasen Shreve To Minor-League Deal
The Pirates are in agreement with left-hander Chasen Shreve on a minor-league contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The deal will guarantee him $1.5MM if he makes Pittsburgh’s MLB roster, per Passan. The Pirates have since announced the move.
Shreve, 30, is coming off a decent 2020 season with the Mets, where he pitched to a 3.96 ERA/3.45 SIERA across 25 relief innings. Impressively, Shreve struck out a third of the batters he faced, a career-best mark that tied for twentieth among the 141 relievers with at least 20 innings pitched. Relatedly, Shreve’s 17.1% swinging strike rate tied for thirteenth among that group.
It’s a bit surprising a left-hander with that kind of swing-and-miss stuff wound up settling for a minor-league deal, but Shreve has proven susceptible to both walks and home runs over the course of his career. That continued last season, as he allowed four home runs (1.44 HR/9) while walking a higher-than-average 11.8% of opposing hitters.
Control issues notwithstanding, it’d still register as a bit of a surprise if Shreve doesn’t earn a spot on Pittsburgh’s big league roster out of spring training. At present, only Austin Davis and Sam Howard occupy left-handed relief roles on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster.
Angels Sign Juan Lagares To Minor-League Deal
11:56 am: Lagares’ deal would pay him $1.25MM if he makes the Angels’ major league roster, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link).
10:13 am: The Angels have signed outfielder Juan Lagares to a minor-league contract, as first reported by Rolando Fermín (Twitter link) and confirmed by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The deal includes an invitation to major league spring training.
Lagares has appeared in parts of eight major league seasons, all as a member of the Mets. A high-end defender, Lagares had a run as New York’s primary center fielder between 2013-15 but has seen his playing time drop off a bit in recent seasons. Never a particularly strong hitter, Lagares slumped to a .213/.279/.326 slash line over 285 plate appearances in 2019. He signed with the Padres last offseason but elected free agency after failing to crack the big league roster out of spring training. Lagares then returned to the Mets, where he appeared in two games as a defensive replacement but didn’t take an at-bat.
The 31-year-old now looks to have a decent opportunity to play his way onto the Angels’ roster this spring. Young talents Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh might be ticketed for the minors to start the season. That would only leave Taylor Ward as a primary outfielder on Los Angeles’ 40-man roster beyond the projected starting group of Justin Upton, Mike Trout and Dexter Fowler. (Infielders Jared Walsh, Franklin Barreto and Matt Thaiss each have very limited MLB experience in the grass, as well). Fellow non-roster invitee Scott Schebler looks to be Lagares’ most direct competition for a bench spot at the moment, although it’d hardly be surprising to see the Angels bring in another outfielder or two on a minor-league deal before spring training gets underway.
Rangers, Athletics Swap Elvis Andrus, Khris Davis As Part Of Five-Player Deal
In a rather stunning swap of veterans, prospects, and cash between divisional rivals, the Rangers are sending long-time shortstop Elvis Andrus, catching prospect Aramis Garcia, and $13.5MM in cash to the Athletics for outfielder/designated hitter Khris Davis, catcher Jonah Heim, and right-handed pitcher Dane Acker. In announcing the deal, the Rangers note that Andrus leaves as one of just five players to spend 12 seasons in Texas.
While the roster implications are significant for both teams, the financial aspect is no less fascinating. Andrus is owed $14MM in each of the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Per the original terms of the deal, Andrus also has a vesting option for $15MM in 2023 that, because of the trade, will now become a player option. Still, to make that player option vest, he’ll still need to either accrue 550 plate appearances in 2022 or 1,100 appearances combined in 2021 and 2022. Previously the plate appearance threshold would have triggered a mutual option instead of a player option.
Andrus has only reached that marker in one of the previous three seasons, so there’s at least a reasonable chance he reaches free agency after the 2022 season. If that proves to be the case, the A’s will have freed themselves from the $16.75MM owed to Davis, while essentially remaining on the hook for about $7.25MM in each of 2021 and 2022. Andrus is also getting an $800K assignment bonus, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter), though it’s unclear which side will be responsible for it.
In terms of the Rangers’ financial motivations, they take on more money up front for later payroll flexibility. Davis will be a free agent after the season, so instead of paying out $14MM in each of the next two seasons, they’ll either pay $30.50MM this season and be totally free the future payroll commitment, or perhaps at least lessen it if the money paid to Oakland is given in installments.
On the field, this ends Andrus’ 12-year run as the Rangers’ starting shortstop. The last remaining connection to their back-to-back pennant-winning teams in 2010 and 2011, the two-time All-Star leaves as the franchise’s all-time leader with 305 stolen bases, second all-time with 1,652 game played, and third all-time in both hits (1,743 hits) and runs (893 runs scored). Though he came to be seen as an albatross contract in recent years, Andrus more than earned his keep over the years, producing $205.8MM worth of value through 28.1 fWAR — a full $100MM over the $105.67MM of actual pay he has thus far banked.
Nevertheless, he was set to lose his starting shortstop job to Isiah Kiner-Falefa this season. Andrus admits to some hard-hardheadedness when it comes to changing his approach at the plate, which may have held him back in recent seasons. He will now have the opportunity to re-boot his career in Marcus Semien‘s vacated seat as Oakland’s primary shortstop. Consider the challenge accepted, as Andrus waived the no-trade protection attached to his 10-and-5 status to make the trade happen.
As for the other piece heading to Oakland, Garcia hit .229/.270/.419 over 111 plate appearances with the Giants between 2018 and 2019. The Rangers claimed the former second-round pick off waivers from San Francisco this past November. His inclusion doesn’t likely move the needle much in terms of the overall value of the deal, though he does give the A’s a cheap option to take over as for Heim as Sean Murphy‘s backup. Though A’s fans may bristle at seeing Heim included in the deal given his success last season, if the A’s are committed to Murphy as their regular backstop, then including a backup catcher to achieve their goal of moving off the money owed to Davis this season would seem a calculated risk on their part. Notably, the A’s have another fairly well-regarded backstop in Austin Allen who could also step in to back up Murphy.
With Semien and Tommy La Stella already moving on to new teams this season, it’s hard to view the acquisition of Andrus as a significant win for the A’s. Never much of a slugger, Andrus has only twice exceeded 100 wRC+ and hasn’t topped 76 wRC+ since 2017. A three-year slash line of .260/.306/.378 won’t go far in trying to replace Semien, who was, after all, a legitimate MVP candidate as recently as 2019.
Andrus’ glovework should be his selling point, but he’s scored -7 defensive runs saved in 1,521 innings since 2019 and -3 outs above average in 2020. Statcast credits him with 5 outs above average in 2019, however, and a total 0.5 UZR over the past two years suggest Andrus can at least provide average defense for the A’s at short.
The Rangers take on Davis, famed for his preternatural consistency in batting exactly .247 for four season in a row, which he followed up with matching 82 wRC+ seasons in 2019 and 2020. Davis’ power significantly dissipated these past two seasons, as the A’s saw his isolated power drop from .302 ISO in 2018 to .166 ISO and .1229 ISO the past two seasons. Davis hasn’t played much outfield in recent seasons, but the Rangers are fairly set in that regard anyhow with David Dahl and Joey Gallo expected to start regularly in the corners. Davis could steal some at-bats from Willie Calhoun at designated hitter, specifically against southpaws, whom Davis has continued to hit well with 135 wRC+ in 2020 (though his power saw an even more precipitous drop against lefties than righties in 2020).
The Rangers’ long-term value in this deal will come from Heim and Acker. The latter was a fourth round pick in 2020, and because of the pandemic, the 21-year-old has yet to make his professional debut.
Heim, meanwhile, has the potential to develop into a regular catcher for the Rangers. He made just 41 plate appearances last season, but earned rave reviews from the pitching staff for his ability to manage a game, per the Athletic’s Eno Sarris (via Twitter). Heim was the A’s No. 9 ranked prospect per MLB.com in 2020, No. 13 by Fangraphs, and No. 8 by Baseball America. Because of Oakland’s depth, Heim’s addition should mean more to the Rangers than his subtraction will for Oakland.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal broke the initial news of the deal, as well as the inclusion of Heim and Acker. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweeted news of Garcia’s inclusion in the deal, initially reported to be David Garcia instead of Aramis Garcia. ESPN’s Jeff Passan had the deal expanding beyond the initial framework of Andrus for Davis. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram added the exact amount of cash heading to Oakland.
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