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Marlins To Select Jakob Marsee

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The Marlins are selecting the contract of outfielder Jakob Marsee, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. A corresponding 40-man roster move will be necessary in order to make room for Marsee.

Marsee, 24, was a sixth-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft. He was part of the trade package GM AJ Preller shipped to the Marlins last May to acquire Luis Arraez, and he had a down year at the Double-A level between the Padres and Marlins organizations. His new club still promoted him to Triple-A for a taste of the highest level of the minors late last year, however, and that decision paid off when he turned in a fairly respectable .275/.370/.363 slash line across 22 games and 93 plate appearances at the level.

This year, Marsee has returned to Triple-A and excelled. In 98 games for the Marlins’ Jacksonville affiliate, he’s slashed a sensational .246/.379/.438 with a wRC+ of 125. He’s clubbed 14 home runs, swiped a phenomenal 47 bases, and walked at a 15.9% clip. High walk rates have always been a part of Marsee’s game, and he’s never walked less than 15.3% of the time in any MiLB season. After striking out 22.4% of the time last year en route to below average results at the plate, however, Marsee has cut down on the whiffs and struck out just 18.9% of the time.

Now the outfielder will get a chance to prove himself in the majors. Marsee has experience at all three outfield spots, but the overwhelming majority of that playing time has come in center field. That may be where he plays in the majors given that most scouts view him as at least average at the position, though the Marlins’ outfield mix is in flux after yesterday’s trade of longtime outfield stalwart Jesus Sanchez to the Astros. Kyle Stowers appears to be locked in as the club’s everyday left fielder amid a brilliant season. Dane Myers is currently getting the majority of the reps in center field, with Heriberto Hernandez and Javier Sanoja also getting outfield time. Sanchez played regularly in right field, so Marsee may be asked to simply slide into that position despite having only an average arm.

Wherever Marsee ultimately plays, he figures to get an opportunity to prove himself in the majors over the season’s final two months. The 52-55 Marlins are clear longshots for the postseason even after keeping both Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera in the fold yesterday, and the focus remains squarely on developing young players for the future. Figuring out what role Marsee will play in that future is likely to be a priority for manager Clayton McCullough and president of baseball operations Peter Bendix over the season’s final 55 games, and the youngster proving that he can be a capable regular in the outfield would go a long way to creating optimism about the team’s ability to compete in the near-term. If he can prove himself, Marsee would join a growing nucleus of young talent that includes Stowers, Cabrera, Eury Perez, Agustin Ramirez and Ronny Henriquez, among others.

In the meantime, Marsee figures to make his big league debut against the Yankees in Miami later today. The game is scheduled for 7:10pm local time, the Marlins will need to create space for Marsee on the 40-man roster even though there’s an active roster vacancy due to the Jesus Sanchez trade. That’s because the return for Sanchez, right-hander Ryan Gusto, was already on the Astros’ 40-man roster before he was acquired by the Fish.

The Opener: Deadline Fallout, Chourio, Aranda

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With the trade deadline officially in the rear view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Aftermath of the Deadline:

Almost every team in baseball had the day off yesterday, and as teams return to play they’ll need to reshape their rosters in a significant way. The Twins currently have just 18 players on their 26-man roster and will need to fill the rest of it out before their game against the Guardians this evening. The Diamondbacks had right-hander Merrill Kelly as today’s probable starter, but he’ll be wearing a Rangers uniform for the rest of the year after yesterday’s trade. That leaves Arizona to turn to someone else to take the ball, perhaps veteran swingman Anthony DeSclafani or a youngster on the 40-man like Yilber Diaz.

While today will likely be a fairly morose day for fans of selling teams, it should be an exciting one for buyers. Perhaps Kelly will be on the mound for the Rangers tonight instead of Jack Leiter in tonight’s game against the Mariners. Fans in San Diego might get the chance to see newly-minted closer Mason Miller’s first save opportunity as a Padre. And while the game will be taking place at Fenway Park in Boston, Astros fans will surely be tuning in eagerly to see Carlos Correa’s first game in their uniform since the club fell to the Braves in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series.

2. Chourio to the injured list?

The Brewers had a fairly quiet deadline, all things considered. They scooped up catcher Danny Jansen and took on some dead money in the form of Jordan Montgomery’s contract in order to acquire injured closer Shelby Miller from the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, they shipped out Nestor Cortes Jr. to the Padres in a deal that netted them outfielder Brandon Lockridge after it became clear they had no room for Cortes in their rotation.

Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes that Lockridge will be joining the club in D.C. for its series against the Nationals, however, and that may be due to an injured list placement for outfielder Jackson Chourio. The youngster suffered a right hamstring injury during the team’s series against the Cubs earlier this week, and Hogg notes that GM Matt Arnold acknowledged yesterday that Chourio may be out for “a little longer than we anticipated.” An injured list stint for Chourio has not yet been directly confirmed, however, and it’s unclear just what sort of time table for a return to action he might have at this point.

3. Aranda to the injured list?

The Rays did their usual mix of buying and selling at the deadline this year as they parted ways with Jansen while adding closer Griffin Jax in a deal with the Twins that cost them right-hander Taj Bradley. They also swapped out Zack Littell as they re-calibrated their catching crops to bring in Hunter Feduccia and Nick Fortes, not to mention sending out infielder Jose Caballero in a deal that netted them former top outfield prospect Everson Pereira. All of that leaves them more or less in a decent position to push for a Wild Card spot in the American League this year, but that pursuit could be complicated by a worrying injury.

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, manager Kevin Cash told reporters that infielder Jonathan Aranda “will miss some time” after yesterday’s collision with Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton at first base. The club is waiting for their doctors to make a final diagnosis before announcing a decision on Aranda’s status or a timeline for his return, but it certainly sounds like Aranda could be headed to the injured list. The infielder has hit a sensational .316/.394/.478 in 103 games this year and would be a massive loss for the Rays’ lineup.

MLB Trade Tracker: July

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The 2025 MLB trade deadline has passed, and it was a good one with plenty of surprises.  This post lists all July trades for each of the 30 teams, plus a bonus trio of June acquisitions.  Check out the “acquired” links below to read our write-ups on the trades.  Let me know in the comments if any of the Baseball-Reference player page links are wrong; that’s an automated process and I’ll fix them manually.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Athletics

Atlanta Braves

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox

Cincinnati Reds

Cleveland Guardians

Colorado Rockies

Detroit Tigers

Houston Astros

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels

Los  Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

Milwaukee Brewers

Minnesota Twins

New York Mets

New York Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies

Pittsburgh Pirates

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Seattle Mariners

St. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay Rays

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

Rumored Players Who Were Not Traded

Padres Acquire Mason Miller, JP Sears

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The Padres are once again grabbing deadline headlines, as they’ve swung a trade that’ll bring star closer Mason Miller and lefty JP Sears to San Diego while sending a four-player package led by top shortstop prospect Leo De Vries back to the Athletics. The A’s will also add right-handers Braden Nett, Henry Baez and Eduarniel Nunez in the blockbuster deal.  The deal is now official.

It’ll go down as one of the more stunning trades of the 2025 deadline. Miller is one of the sport’s most highly regarded relievers — an All-Star and fourth-place finisher in American League Rookie of the Year voting just last season. He’s controlled for another four years beyond the current season. De Vries, meanwhile, currently sits as the No. 5 prospect in the entire sport on Baseball America’s latest rankings.

It also sets the stage for a fair bit of other dealing from the Padres, who’ve been discussing current closer Robert Suarez and righty Dylan Cease in trade talks. Either or both could change hands now in trades that simultaneously net younger talent and free up payroll space for San Diego to pursue upgrades in left field, behind the plate and/or on the bench. Both Miller and Sears are still in their pre-arbitration years and thus earning just over the league minimum. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that there are no current plans to trade Suarez, though with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at the helm for the Padres, nothing should ever be expressly ruled out. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that both Suarez and Cease are still being discussed.

The addition of Miller strengthens what was already a powerhouse San Diego bullpen (though, as mentioned, could set the stage for a Suarez trade as well). San Diego relievers have pitched to an MLB-best 2.97 earned run average on the season and rank fifth with a collective 24.1% strikeout rate.

Miller, despite carrying a fairly pedestrian 3.76 ERA, will provide a massive upgrade. The majority of his trouble this year came in a rough month from early May to early June. He’s rattled off 14 innings of one-run ball with 18 strikeouts and four walks since June 15 and, of course, was one of the most dominant bullpen arms in the game a year ago. Miller has pitched 136 2/3 big league innings and carries a 3.16 ERA with a superlative 37.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. He’s saved 48 games and tallied one hold in his career to date and has blown only six opportunities.

Certainly, the tools are there for Miller’s bottom-line results to align with the very best arms in the sport. No one in baseball throws harder than his average 101.1 mph four-seamer, and Miller’s 20.4% swinging-strike rate trails only Josh Hader and Fernando Cruz for the top mark among pitchers with even 10 innings pitched this season. Dating back to 2024, he’s fanned nearly 41% of his opponents and kept his walk rate under 10%. Even in an era where power arsenals with premium bat-missing ability seem to proliferate the sport, the 6’5″ Miller stands above the rest in a tier nearly unto himself.

It’s worth at least considering the possibility that Miller could return to the rotation at some point down the road. Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggested last night that it was an idea the Padres had considered. Miller was drafted as a starter and made his big league debut in the Athletics’ rotation. Given the Friars’ lack of rotation depth and plethora of talented relievers, they could at least explore the idea of returning Miller to a starting role beginning next season, though there’s obviously some risk in removing him from a role in which he’s found such success.

Regardless of which role Miller holds in the long run, it seems likely he’ll work in relief for the balance of the current season. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible — though he will be this winter — and is controlled for four additional seasons, so it’s only natural that the asking price on the right-hander was exorbitant. The Padres have repeatedly rebuffed teams who’ve come calling for De Vries or top catching prospect Ethan Salas, but San Diego ultimately relented in order to acquire four-plus seasons of arguably the game’s most dominant reliever and Sears — a respectable back-of-the-rotation arm who can help solidify the staff for three-plus years in his own right.

Sears, 29, came to the A’s alongside Ken Waldichuk and Luis Medina in the trade sending Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the Yankees. He’s the only one of the pitchers (on either side of the deal) that has held up without a major injury.

While Sears is a pure back-end starter, he’s been a durable source of competitive innings for the A’s. The 5’11” southpaw started 32 games in both 2023 and 2024, and he’s taken the mound 22 times in 2025. This year’s 4.95 ERA is a career-high, though like teammate Luis Severino, more of those struggles have come at home in what’s proving to be a hitter-friendly setting at West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park. Sears has a 5.48 ERA and has allowed 14 homers in 47 2/3 innings at home, compared to a 4.55 mark and nine round-trippers in 63 1/3 innings on the road.

Over Sears’ past 464 innings with the A’s, the lefty has worked to a combined 4.58 ERA. He’s fanned 20.1% of his opponents in that time and kept his walk rate to a strong 6.7%. Sears sits 92.2 mph on his four-seamer and couples that pitch with a slider that sits 79.5 mph and a changeup that’s averaging 83.4 mph this year. He’s averaging just over five innings per start.

Sears now slots into a rotation group that includes Cease (for now), Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Ryan Bergert and Randy Vasquez. Top starter Michael King has been out for more than two months but is expected to return before season’s end. Both Cease and King are free agents at season’s end.

San Diego has been hopeful of re-signing King, though that’s no guarantee. Next year, they’ll get Joe Musgrove back from Tommy John surgery. A 2026 rotation could well include Musgrove, Pivetta, Darvish, Sears and one of Bergert/Vasquez/Stephen Kolek, though the return of King or acquisition of other rotation arms obviously can’t be ruled out. Regardless, Sears adds some nice depth and will remain affordable. He also still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, giving the Friars plenty of flexibility with the composition of that staff.

The A’s have been reluctant to move Miller, but San Diego’s willingness to include De Vries surely pushed things over the edge. He’s the best prospect moved at a trade deadline since the Padres gutted their farm system to acquire Juan Soto three years ago. Today’s front offices are generally loath to part with prospects who’ve reached this level of acclaim, but the Preller-led Padres are the most aggressive in baseball when it comes to the trade market.

Still just 18 years old, De Vries is a switch-hitting shortstop with power who’s having success in High-A despite his youth. More advanced and experienced opponents haven’t fazed him. He’s hitting .245/.357/.410 (116 wRC+) with eight homers and eight steals despite being one of the youngest players in the league. He draws above-average grades across the board in most scouting reports, with his raw power, in particular, generating plus marks.

De Vries is listed at 6’2″ and 183 pounds, although given his age, he could still grow into more bulk and tap more into his raw power. Baseball America describes him as a potential “centerpiece of a big league club,” touting an all-fields approach from the left side of the plate and a pull-heavy approach from the right side that lets him get to that power more frequently. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen is a bit more bearish, albeit only relative to his elite ranking at BA and at MLB.com (where he’s ranked third in the game). Citing questions about his defensive aptitude and some swing-and-miss, FanGraphs’ report calls De Vries “only” a top-40 or so prospect in the game and has him as more of a strong regular than a superstar.

As with any prospect, there’s a fairly broad range of outcomes, but De Vries’ ceiling is higher than most and he’s on track to reach the majors at an uncommonly young age, giving the A’s more control over his peak physical seasons. A call to the majors in 2027 seems quite feasible, and in a best-case scenario he could even debut late next year. If De Vries incurs injuries or takes a bit longer to adjust to upper-level pitching, that debut could push back to 2028, but even then he’d be in just his age-21 season. Regardless, when the range of likely outcomes is generally agreed upon as something between “above-average everyday shortstop” to “superstar centerpiece of a team,” we’re talking about one of the game’s premier young talents.

De Vries is the clear headliner of the deal, but the three arms headed back to the A’s are hardly mere throw-ins. Nett and Baez were reportedly among the more sought-after prospects in the second tier of a thin Padres farm system. Both are posting strong numbers in Double-A this season.

Nett, 23, has started 17 games and pitched 74 1/3 innings. He’s logged a 3.39 ERA, 26.3% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 42.3% ground-ball rate. Nett signed with the Padres as an undrafted free agent in 2022 and has pitched his way into genuine prospect status.

Baseball America ranked Nett seventh among San Diego prospects earlier this month. He sits third in their system at MLB.com and 12th at FanGraphs. He sits 95-97 mph with a fastball that can climb to 99 mph. Nett’s slider gets above-average grades from scouts and works with a cutter, changeup and curveball that could all use some additional refinement. He’ll be Rule 5 eligible this offseason and will surely be selected to the A’s 40-man roster by November — if he’s not called upon for a major league look in the season’s final two months.

Baez, meanwhile, ranked 16th in the system at BA, 13th at MLB.com and 27th at FanGraphs. He’s posted a 1.96 ERA in 20 Double-A starts this season but has averaged under five innings per outing. Baez sits in the low to mid-90s with his fastball and tops out around 97. He has better command than Nett but lesser velocity and misses fewer bats. He also features a curveball in the upper 70s and a mid-80s changeup. Baez was already on San Diego’s 40-man roster and will thus go right onto the Athletics’ 40-man roster as well.

The 26-year-old Nunez has already made his major league debut, tossing 4 2/3 innings out of the Padres’ bullpen this year. He’s a pure bullpen prospect who can step right into manager Mark Kotsay’s relief corps, if the A’s choose. He’s sat 97.9 mph with his four-seamer in his brief big league look, and Nunez has sat even higher (98.8 mph) in Triple-A. He couples that pitch with an upper-80s slider and a seldom-used curveball in the low to mid-80s.

San Diego signed Nunez as a minor league free agent over the winter, and he’s made huge gains with what had been previously poor command in the Cubs’ system. Nunez walked 22% of his opponents with Chicago’s Triple-A club a year ago. His 14% mark in Triple-A this season is still problematic but nowhere near as alarming. He also boasts a massive 38.6% chase rate in the minors and an outrageous 21.5% swinging-strike rate.

If Nunez can even come close to replicating those rates in the majors, he’d have the potential to be a high-end relief arm himself. That said, it’s worth bearing in mind that Nunez is already older than the elite reliever for whom he was just traded (Miller), and this is the first time he’s really shown any semblance of command in the upper minors. There’s upside here, but Nunez is still very much a work in progress.

There’s rarely a dull deadline when it comes to Preller, and this morning’s early and still fairly stunning swap of one of MLB’s most coveted prospects for one of its best big league relievers leaves plenty of time for further dealing. The Padres have been connected to left fielders like Cleveland’s Steven Kwan and Boston’s Jarren Duran while simultaneously exploring deals involving Cease, Suarez and other members of the current big league roster. More fireworks are surely on the way, but Preller and his Oakland West Sacramento counterpart, David Forst, have kicked things off with a bang.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the trade of Miller and Sears to the Padres and was also first with the full details on the Athletics’ return. This post was originally published at 10:25am.

Astros Acquire Carlos Correa

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Carlos Correa is coming home to play third base.  The Twins have agreed to trade Correa to the Astros, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network says he’ll man the hot corner for Houston.  Pitching prospect Matt Mikulski is going to Minnesota, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic.  Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Twins are paying down $33MM of the approximate $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s deal.  The trade is now official.

The idea of the Astros bringing Correa back into the fold first surfaced yesterday in a report from Nightengale.  Rome and Dan Hayes of The Athletic went on to report that the Astros approached the Twins with the concept of bringing back Correa, a favorite of owner Jim Crane.

With $103.4MM remaining on Correa’s contract through 2028, reporting today suggested that the two clubs were too far apart on dollars to consummate a deal.  However, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, the teams bridged their financial gap, Correa waived his no-trade clause, and the deal was resuscitated.  As Correa told McTaggart, “I let them know there was only one team I would allow that to happen.”

The Astros and Crane have a history of letting star players depart for longer free agent deals elsewhere.  In this case, Correa left after the 2021 season.  Nearly three years later third baseman Alex Bregman turned down the Astros’ overtures and landed in Boston, after the club had already landed his replacement in Isaac Paredes (acquired from the Cubs in part because the Astros knew they couldn’t win the bidding on Kyle Tucker).  Paredes tore his hamstring on July 19th, which may be season-ending.

Jeremy Peña has flourished in Correa’s absence, making his first All-Star team this year after hitting the IL in late June for a fractured rib.  Peña could rejoin the Astros tomorrow in Boston, playing next to his predecessor on the left side of the infield against Bregman and the Red Sox.  The Astros had picked up Ramon Urias from Baltimore last night, a move that paled in comparison to the division-rival Mariners adding Eugenio Suarez.  Now with Correa, Urias will be pushed into a utility role that could include time at second base.

Correa, 31 in September, owns an uninspiring 97 wRC+ in 364 plate appearances this year for the Twins.  His Twins career has been up-and-down in that regard, with a stellar 136 wRC+ in 2022, a down year in ’23, and a career-best 155 mark last year.

Correa played in only 86 games for the Twins in 2024, missing time due to an intercostal strain and plantar fasciitis.  He spent time on the seven-day concussion list in May this year, but has otherwise avoided the IL despite some minor injuries.

Injuries have long been part of the story for Correa, who was drafted first overall by the Astros in 2012.  He played 110 or fewer games in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2024, so he had a four-year run of good health encompassing his multiple free agencies.

Despite his injury history, Correa has been worth 3.7 WAR in seven separate seasons.  He won the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015, made his first All-Star team and garnered MVP votes in 2017, made another All-Star team and finished fifth in the MVP voting in 2021, and made a third All-Star game with the Twins last year.  Certainly Correa’s 2017 performance and the Astros’ championship are tarnished by the sign-stealing scandal, but the star players involved have largely been able to move on with minimal effects aside from perhaps extra boos from certain fanbases.

Correa has been a regular on the pages of MLBTR, perhaps beginning with that sign-stealing scandal in late 2019.  Though Correa suffered some reputational damage for cheating at the time, his first run at free agency seemed largely unaffected.  Hewing to their organizational philosophy on long-term contracts, the Astros topped out at a five-year, $160MM offer, even though Correa was heading into his age-27 season.

Though some major free agents such as Corey Seager signed before the 99-day 2021-22 lockout, Correa did not.  Correa switched to the Boras Corporation during the lockout, and “settled” for a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins in March 2022 with opt-out clauses after each season.  After an excellent debut season with the Twins, Correa opted out as expected, but his second run at free agency was anything but easy.

Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in December 2022, which shockingly fell apart after his physical revealed concerns over his right leg.  Correa then agreed to play third base for the Mets on a 12-year, $315MM deal, only to have that deal fall apart for similar reasons.  That led to a January 2023 reunion with the Twins on a six-year, $200MM deal, ending one of the wildest free agencies this website has ever seen.

As Rome and Hayes wrote recently, “Though the Twins are enamored with Correa, believing he’s a difference-maker on the field, the team’s financial picture has changed drastically in the 30 months since he signed his six-year deal. The club has been up for sale since October, which is limiting how much the team can spend on players. Correa’s salary represents 25 percent of the Twins’ current $141 million payroll.”

Now, Correa will return to Houston and play a position other than shortstop for the first time in his 11-year MLB career.  He told McTaggart, “We were waiting for a shortstop to come in [with Twins] and now that I get to play third base, it will be great for me at this stage of my career.”  Whether Paredes moves to the right side of the infield next year or becomes offseason trade bait remains to be seen.

Correa is owed $103.4MM through 2028, which would represent a $31.4MM CBT hit for the Astros.  Given the approximate $33MM the Twins are kicking in, we estimate the Astros’ CBT hit to be around $21MM.  Future reporting will surely confirm the figure.  The Astros’ CBT payroll sits just below the $241MM threshold, so this trade easily vaults Houston into second-time tax payor status.  The trade has echoes of one the Astros made two years ago, when they re-acquired Justin Verlander after letting him go to the Mets via free agency.

Known to be seeking a left-handed bat, the Astros nonetheless added Urias and Correa within a short span at the deadline.  But shortly after landing Correa, they finally did get a lefty stick in the Marlins’ Jesus Sanchez.  Clearly in go-for-it mode, GM Dana Brown pursued the Padres’ Dylan Cease as well, but that did not come to fruition.

While the Astros have added to their first-place team, the 51-57 Twins have conducted a full-on fire sale.  Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey traded a whopping 10 players off his active roster in July, including both rentals and controllable players.

This post was originally published at 3:05pm central time.

Rays, Twins Swap Griffin Jax For Taj Bradley

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The Rays and Twins orchestrated a fascinating one-for-one swap at the deadline. Minnesota traded setup man Griffin Jax to Tampa Bay for young starting pitcher Taj Bradley.

Jax, 30, is one of a staggering five relievers whom the Twins traded in the past two days. He followed Jhoan Duran, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe and Louis Varland out the door. Minnesota dismantled what had been one of the best bullpens in the game. Of course, that doesn’t even address their biggest deal of the day.

A former third-round pick out of Air Force, Jax has developed into a high-end reliever. This year’s 4.50 ERA may not reflect that, but he misses bats an elite rate. Jax has punched out 36.4% of opposing hitters while running a 19.5% swinging strike rate. He ranks comfortably among the top 10 relievers in MLB in both categories. Jax posted very similar underlying numbers across 72 appearances a year ago. Last season’s ERA reflected that dominance, as he turned in a 2.03 mark through 71 innings.

Opposing hitters have a .389 average on balls in play against Jax. That’s the highest against any pitcher in MLB with at least 40 innings. Jax had allowed a sub-.300 BABIP in each of the previous three seasons. This season’s mark is a clear outlier, and teams continue to view him as a weapon at the back of the bullpen. Jax has the ability to run his fastball to 97 MPH on average, but his best two offerings are his sweeper and changeup. It’s a plus three-pitch mix.

Jax joins Pete Fairbanks, Bryan Baker and Garrett Cleavinger towards the back of a revamped Tampa Bay bullpen. He’s likely to work in a setup role in front of Fairbanks for the remainder of the season. The Rays opted not to trade their closer despite what appeared to be significant interest. Fairbanks could be the subject of trade chatter again during the offseason. If Tampa Bay pulls the trigger on a deal at that point, Jax would have a good chance of stepping into the ninth inning.

The Rays control Jax for two seasons beyond this one. He’s playing on a $2.365MM salary in his first arbitration year. Duran kept him from accruing many saves in Minnesota that would’ve built his arbitration earnings. He’ll likely land a salary in the $4-5MM range next season and could get between $6-8MM for his final run through the process. Tampa Bay straddled the line between buying and selling this summer, but they didn’t abandon hope of erasing what is currently a three-game deficit in the Wild Card picture. Even if they don’t make the playoffs, they’ll have Jax for another couple seasons.

It’s appealing enough that the Rays were willing to move on from Bradley. A former top prospect, the 6’2″ righty has held a rotation spot in Tampa Bay for most of the past three seasons. He has never really put it all together, allowing an ERA of 4.11 or higher in each season. Home runs were the biggest culprit over the first two years, but he missed bats at plus rates with league average control. It has been a different story in 2025. Bradley’s strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low 20.2% as he’s getting fewer swinging strikes. He has upped his ground-ball rate and gotten the longball under control, but his 4.61 ERA across 21 starts is right in line with his career mark.

Around the All-Star Break, it was reported that the Rays were open to offers on Bradley. It seemed clear that he’d fallen out of favor when they optioned him to Triple-A last week after he gave up four runs without escaping the second inning against the White Sox. That didn’t mean they’d trade him for whatever they could get, of course, but there was presumably a growing frustration with Bradley’s inconsistent results. Tampa Bay traded a pair of starting pitchers in Bradley and Zack Littell, but they’re giving the former’s rotation spot to hard-throwing righty Joe Boyle. They replaced the latter by acquiring Adrian Houser from the White Sox.

Coaxing more out of Bradley now falls on the Twins. He figures to return to the rotation in Minnesota. He’ll slot behind Joe Ryan, Zebby Matthews and eventually Pablo López in the starting staff. Minnesota also landed talented rookie right-hander Mick Abel from the Phillies in the Duran return. They’re clearly looking ahead to a 2026 season that might be under new ownership and hoping to build around young starting pitching.

Bradley may not have had sustained MLB success, but it’s easy to see the appeal. Controllable starting pitching is the most difficult asset to acquire. Minnesota has Bradley under team control for four seasons after this one. He has a four-pitch mix led by a 96 MPH fastball with the command to start. If the Twins can marry this year’s batted ball results with the swing-and-miss ability he has shown in prior seasons, Bradley would be a more valuable long-term asset than a reliever — even one as good as Jax.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Rays were acquiring Jax. Dan Hayes of The Athletic had Bradley’s return. Images courtesy of Lon Howedel and Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images.

Padres Acquire Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano

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The Padres’ frenetic trade deadline continued today, as they bolstered their offense by trading for first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn and outfielder Ramon Laureano from the Orioles.  Six 2024 Padres draft picks will head to Baltimore in return: Boston Bateman, Cobb Hightower, Tyson Neighbors, Brandon Butterworth, Victor Figueroa and Tanner Smith.

O’Hearn and Laureano stood as two of the more obvious trade candidates on the Orioles’ roster. The former is a pure rental earning an $8MM salary in 2025, while the latter is owed $4MM this year and has a $6.5MM club option for the 2026 season. Both are in the midst of productive seasons at the plate, and both will provide noted upgrades to San Diego’s lineup.

The 32-year-old O’Hearn was acquired from the Royals for peanuts three years ago. His stock was low enough after the acquisition that Baltimore even succeeded in passing him through waivers. O’Hearn was selected back to the majors mid-April in 2023 and never looked back. He hit .289/.322/.480 that season and has now slashed .277/.342/.454 in three years as an Oriole. Along the way, he’s radically improved his plate discipline and hit tool. O’Hearn walked in only 4% of his 2023 plate appearances while fanning at a 22.3% clip. He’s up to an 11.6% walk rate in 2025 and has fanned at a 14% clip and 17.5% pace, respectively, in the past two seasons.

O’Hearn doesn’t hit lefties well, despite holding his own in 2025, so the Friars will likely platoon him to the extent possible. Adding a right-handed bat like Laureano makes that goal easier. The 31-year-old is in the midst of a career year at the plate, hitting .290/.355/.529 (144 wRC+) with 15 home runs in 290 plate appearances. He handles lefties well enough to take some at-bats off O’Hearn’s plate, but Laureano’s production in right-on-right matchups this year (.305/.368/.563) should be robust enough that he’s in the lineup on a daily basis.

The Padres can plug Laureano in as their primary left fielder and install O’Hearn at first base or designated hitter versus right-handed pitching. O’Hearn and Luis Arraez give the Friars a pair of lefty-swinging first base/DH options with plus contact skills (though Arraez is in a class of his own in that regard). Gavin Sheets likely loses some playing time as a result of this, though pushing him to the bench with Laureano and O’Hearn in the starting lineup makes for a much deeper group of hitters all around. Sheets being pushed into a limited role probably reduces the opportunities for Bryce Johnson and Trenton Brooks.

Laureano has played primarily in the outfield corners for the Orioles this season, though he’s no stranger to center field, either. He’s drawn plus marks in both corners both this year and throughout his big league career. That’s an important element of the acquisition in and of itself; the Padres have been a roughly average team defensively in left field this year, but that’s due primarily to early contributions from the since-released Jason Heyward. Sheets has seen plenty of time in left field and posted below-average marks there. Laureano should be a boost both with the bat and with the glove.

Given next year’s $6.5MM option, Laureano seems quite likely to be more than just a short-term rental. He’ll give the Padres an option in left next year — and an affordable one at that.

For a Padres club that is bogged down by major financial commitments to Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta (among others), that’s a notable perk. The Padres already have $166MM on next year’s payroll, not including arbitration raises to Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and new acquisitions Freddy Fermin and JP Sears.

The Orioles will receive a heavy volume of lower-level prospects in exchange for the latest pair of veterans they’re shipping out. Bateman was the Padres’ second-round pick one year ago and took home an over-slot $2.5MM bonus. He’s a huge 6’8″ southpaw selected out of a California high school and has spent the 2025 season in Class-A, where he’s posted a 4.08 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

Baseball America ranked Bateman sixth in San Diego’s system. The lefty garners praise for a heater he runs up to 96 mph — which surely seems faster given the extension he can generate with his long levers — as well as an upper-70s curve with plus spin. He’ll have more work to do on his command as he continues to face more advanced hitters, and he’s still working to add a develop an average third pitch.

The 20-year-old Hightower was last year’s third-round pick by the Friars. He’s spent the season in Class-A and batted .239/.363/.314 in 190 plate appearances. BA had him eighth in the Padres’ system. Despite this year’s pedestrian output, he’s regarded as a bat-first infielder who may have to move off shortstop down the road.

Neighbors is a 6’1″, 220-pound righty whom San Diego selected in the fourth round out of Kansas State last year. He’s already climbed to Double-A and has pitched 43 2/3 innings with a 1.85 ERA, 37.6% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate in that time. Much of that success has come against younger competition, it should be noted. Baseball America calls Neighbors a no-doubt reliever with plus stuff and shaky command. He ranked 20th in the Padres’ system.

Butterworth was the Padres’ 12th-round pick last summer. The 22-year-old NC State product is having a nice year in High-A, slashing .267/.327/.455 with 11 homers, 17 doubles, seven triples and a 13-for-15 showing in stolen base attempts. He didn’t rank among the system’s 30 best prospects on BA’s most recent update. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen listed Butterworth as No. 38 among the 38 prospects he ranked in their system last month.

Smith was a 15th-rounder out of Harvard. He’s pitched out of the bullpen in the Padres’ system this year and logged a 3.46 ERA in 26 frames between the Rookie-level Complex League and their Low-A affiliate. The 6’6″ righty has missed plenty of bats but also walked 11.6% of his opponents. He’s not a ranked prospect in the system, nor is the 21-year-old Figueroa, whom the Padres took in last year’s 18th round. Figueroa is a first baseman and corner outfielder who’s hitting .318/.420/.588 between the Complex League and Low-A — impressive numbers on the surface that were primarily compiled against teenaged opposition in the low minors.

Rangers Acquire Merrill Kelly

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The Rangers announced the acquisition of starting pitcher Merrill Kelly from the Diamondbacks for pitching prospects Mitch Bratt, Kohl Drake and David Hagaman. Texas designated first baseman Blaine Crim for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Kelly is the most significant of three deadline pickups for the Rangers. They also deepened their bullpen by adding Phil Maton and Danny Coulombe. The Rangers leaned even harder into their identity as a pitching and defense team after evidently being dissatisfied with the asking prices on top hitters.

The 36-year-old Kelly was arguably the best rental starter who changed hands. He has turned in a 3.22 earned run average through 128 2/3 innings. That comes with a solid 23.5% strikeout percentage and a league average 7.4% walk rate. Kelly doesn’t have massive swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s a plus command artist with a long track record of mid-rotation performance. This will his third sub-4.00 ERA season within the past four years. Last year’s 4.03 earned runs per nine is his worst mark since 2021.

That’s rock solid production that’ll make Kelly a high-end #3 starter in Texas. He’d slot behind Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi as the expected playoff rotation if the Rangers qualify. They have plenty of work to do in that regard — they’re currently tied with Seattle for the final AL Wild Card position — but opponents would have a very tough time scoring against them in October. Patrick Corbin and Jack Leiter figure to round out the starting five for the time being. That could push Kumar Rocker back to Triple-A.

Kelly is playing on a $7MM salary. It’s the final year of what turned out to be a very team-friendly extension that he signed with the Snakes early in the ’22 season. Texas is taking on roughly $2.22MM for the stretch run. They also added around $950K on Coulombe’s deal and picked up roughly $634K on Maton. The Rangers have wanted to stay underneath the $241MM base luxury tax threshold. RosterResource unofficially estimates them around $236M. The actual number is likely to be above that by season’s end as players trigger incentives, but it seems the Rangers at least stayed on the border of the threshold while making a trio of acquisitions on the pitching staff.

Arizona had already dealt Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor as they sold off most of their impending free agents. The biggest question on deadline day was whether they’d trade both Kelly and Zac Gallen. Ultimately, they only found what they considered a satisfactory offer on Kelly. Gallen will finish the season in the desert and quite likely receive and reject a qualifying offer. The D-Backs valued the compensatory draft pick they’d receive in that scenario more than whatever teams were willing to trade for Gallen, who has underperformed this season.

Kelly’s superior year allowed the Snakes to get a trio of minor league arms. They focused their trade returns on upper level young pitching. Drake, a 6’5″ left-hander, is the highest regarded of their new prospects. He placed fifth in the Texas system at MLB Pipeline and ninth at Baseball America. BA feels the former 11th-round pick projects as a multi-inning reliever, while Pipeline projects him as a back-end starter.

Drake has struggled over four Triple-A starts but turned in a 2.44 ERA through 12 appearances in Double-A. He sits around 93 MPH and has a four-pitch mix with advanced command. He’s 24 years old and will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He should debut at some point next year at the latest.

Bratt, 22, is a 6’1″ lefty who was selected out of high school in the 2021 draft. The Canadian southpaw has spent the whole season at Double-A Frisco. He has pitched to a 3.18 ERA with a plus 28.5% strikeout percentage and minuscule 4.3% walk rate in 18 appearances. Bratt placed ninth in the system at Pipeline and 14th at Baseball America. He’s a good athlete with above-average to plus command but fringe stuff that could make him a fifth starter. He’ll also need to go on the 40-man roster this offseason.

The 22-year-old Hagaman is a little further off. He was a fourth-round pick out of West Virginia last summer. He underwent Tommy John surgery last year and has been limited to eight professional appearances. Both BA and Pipeline ranked him in the middle third of the Rangers’ top 30 prospects. The 6’4″ righty has an impressive three-pitch arsenal but struggled with command in college. He could be a long-term reliever but will get a chance to develop as a starter.

Arizona’s player development staff now has a lot of young pitching talent with which to work. Most of those players could be on the MLB radar by next season. In the meantime, veteran righty Anthony DeSclafani will stretch out from long relief to take Kelly’s rotation spot (relayed by Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). He has a 3.86 ERA in 23 1/3 frames and should be a serviceable innings source so the D-Backs don’t need to press their younger arms into early action.

As for Crim, he’ll be placed on waivers in the next few days. The 28-year-old first baseman got a brief look earlier in the season when the Rangers optioned Jake Burger to Triple-A. He went 1-11 with a walk. Crim has a career .283/.374/.487 batting line in more than 1600 plate appearances at the top minor league level.

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.5 first reported the Rangers were nearing a Kelly deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed there was an agreement in place. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Arizona was acquiring three prospects, including Drake and Hagaman. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic was first on Bratt’s inclusion. Image courtesy of Charles Leclaire, Imagn Images.

Yankees Acquire David Bednar

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The Yankees have added one the biggest prizes of the relief market to their bullpen, acquiring David Bednar from the Pirates for catching prospect Rafael Flores, minor league catcher Edgleen Perez, and minor league outfielder Brian Sanchez.

Bednar, 30, has been a staple of the Pirates’ bullpen for five years. The hard-throwing 6’1″ righty is making $5.9MM this season and is under club control for one more year. He’s owed about $1.87MM of that sum for the balance of the season, though the Yankees will have to pay a 110% luxury tax on him, making the total financial outlay closer to $3.9MM.

Yankees relievers have been mediocre on the season overall, sitting 21st in the majors with a 4.24 ERA. However, they’ve been the second-worst group in baseball over the past month, recording a 6.29 ERA that’s worst in the American League and leads only the Rockies among all 30 teams. Struggles from Devin Williams and Luke Weaver have played a significant role, and the Yankees have also been without Fernando Cruz and Mark Leiter Jr. in that time. Cruz has an oblique strain, and Leiter has a stress fracture in his fibula.

Bednar, a two-time All-Star, will provide some much-needed support. Although he struggled through a brutal 2024 season and had a rough start to his 2025 campaign, those hardships feel like a distant memory. The Bucs optioned him to Triple-A in late March, and Bednar has been an absolute behemoth since returning. In 37 frames, he’s posted a dazzling 1.70 ERA with a 34.5% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate. It’s some of the best work of Bednar’s career — even better than what had been a 2021-23 peak that saw him post a combined 2.25 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate.

Bednar is averaging 97.1 mph on his heater this season. His curveball, the righty’s go-to secondary pitch, is sitting nearly 20 mph slower. Bednar also features a splitter that’s averaging 92.3 mph this year. He’s used that arsenal to induce chases off the plate at an excellent 34.4% clip and garnered a 12.7% swinging-strike rate as well. Left-handed opponents, in particular, have been flummoxed by Bednar. They’re hitting just .162/.240/.276 against him. His mastery over lefties is all the more important, given Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch.

That Bednar is controllable for an additional season surely holds extra appeal for the Yankees, given that both Weaver and Williams are both set to reach free agency at season’s end. Bednar can pitch in any high-leverage role necessary in 2025 and could step into the ninth inning for the 2026 season, depending on whether Williams and/or Weaver are retained.  After striking the deal for Bednar, the Yankees further augmented their bullpen by acquiring Camilo Doval from the Giants and Jake Bird from the Rockies.

Flores, 24, is the big get for the Pirates in return. He ranked eighth among Yankees prospects on Baseball America’s recent update on their system. He opened the season at the Double-A level and ripped through opposing pitchers at a .287/.346/.496 clip (146 wRC+) before being recently promoted to Triple-A. He’s hitting just .211/.288/.289 there, but that’s in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances. Overall, Flores is hitting .279/.351/.475 between the two levels. He’s never had a below-average year offensively in the minors.

Flores has already popped 16 homers on the season, leaving him just five shy of his career-high mark. He’s listed at 6’4″ and 230 pounds, making him on the larger end for a catcher. He’s viewed as more of a bat-first option whose calling card is raw power, and Flores has accordingly spent a fair bit of time at first base as well.

The Pirates have been searching for a catcher of the future for what feels like an eternity. They selected Henry Davis with the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft and acquired both Endy Rodriguez and Joey Bart via trade in recent years. They’ve also cycled through veterans like Jacob Stallings, Elias Diaz and several other journeymen over the course of the past five to six years. Despite the sizable investment and cast of rotating characters, none have managed to stick.

It’s a similar situation at first base. Neither Davis nor Rodriguez has staked a claim to the position. Pittsburgh acquired Spencer Horwitz over the winter in hopes that he could hold the position down for years to come. It’s too early to firmly pass judgment on that acquisition, particularly after Horwitz missed the first few months of the season due to wrist surgery, but his .252/.323/.359 batting line through his first 229 plate appearances surely isn’t what the Pirates had hoped to see. Flores adds another possible option to the mix in the long term, though the Bucs will hope that he can handle catching work while Horwitz improves his production at first base.

The other two players in the swap are further from big league readiness. Perez, 19, has spent the season with the Yankee’s Class-A affiliate. He’s turned in a disappointing .209/.368/.236 batting line in 380 trips to the plate. He’s considered a solid defensive catcher and still ranked 16th among Yankee prospects at BA despite his struggles this year, due in large part to his glove and his exceptional pitch recognition. As Baseball America points out in their scouting report, he chased off the plate than any player in the minors last year (just 7.7%). Perez walked in nearly 21% of his plate appearances last season and is at 17.9% in 2025.

If Perez can begin to hit the ball with more authority as he fills out physically, he has the potential to be an OBP-focused hitter who can stick behind the plate. He has below-average power, but players with this type of discipline and swing decisions can still be impactful, particularly if they’re playing serviceable defense behind the plate.

Sanchez, 21, ranked 24th on BA’s update of the Yankees’ system. He’s having a nice season in A-ball, hitting .281/.373/.438 with four home runs, 16 doubles, five triples and 24 steals (in 28 attempts). He’s drawn a walk in 12.6% of his plate appearances against a 23.4% strikeout rate. He’s an above-average runner who’s capable of handling center field and could likely be above-average in the corners.

None of the three players acquired by the Pirates are on the 40-man roster, though they’ll need to add Flores to the 40-man before mid-November in order to protect him from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Neither Perez nor Sanchez needs to be protected until the 2027-28 offseason. Adding a near-MLB-ready catcher/first baseman and a pair of mid-range prospects from the Yankees’ system is a fine return in and of itself, though there’ll surely be a contingent of Pirates fans frustrated by the team’s repeated inability to secure long-term options at these positions — and that said inability has led them to expend another high-end trade chip in an effort to do so.

This post was originally published at 1:50pm.

Blue Jays Acquire Shane Bieber

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Shane Bieber from the Guardians in exchange for pitching prospect Khal Stephen, according to announcements from both clubs. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Bieber is on the 60-day injured list and won’t require an immediate 40-man roster spot with the Jays.

Bieber hasn’t pitched in a major league game since April of 2024. Shortly after that, he required Tommy John surgery. He hit free agency after last season and re-signed with the Guardians. It was a two-year, $26MM deal but with the second season being a player option. He is making $10MM here in 2025 and then the option is valued at $16MM with a $4MM buyout.

That deal reflected the uncertainty around Bieber. He was clearly going to miss some time to start the 2025 campaign but was certainly a possibility for a second-half return. The deal allowed him to bank some notable earnings, with the second year being a safety net for the event he experienced setbacks in his recovery. But if he came back and returned to his dominant form or even just a pretty good form, he would have the chance to return to free agency and secure a larger guarantee.

The uncertainty is still present now. Bieber started a rehab assignment in late May and was targeting a late June return. That didn’t come to pass. After just one rehab outing, he was shut down due to renewed elbow soreness. He restarted his rehab in the middle of July. He has made three rehab starts in the past few weeks, building from two innings in the first game to three and four innings in the subsequent appearances. In his nine total innings over those three games, he allowed two earned runs with 16 strikeouts, one walk, one hit-by-pitch and six hits allowed.

It’s a notable gamble by the Jays. Bieber is a real wild card, having not pitched in a big league game in so long. Even before the surgery, there were signs he was trending in the wrong direction. The contract adds an extra element of risk. If Bieber re-aggravates his elbow or suffers any other kind of serious injury, he’ll trigger his player option and stick around and put some more money on Toronto’s books for 2026. If he pitches well, he’ll leave, meaning the Jays have given up a big prospect for just a handful of starts from Bieber.

It’s also understandable why the Jays would roll the dice with Bieber. The Jays are surprisingly atop the American League East, something that almost no one predicted coming into the year. They shook off a cold March/April to be one of the best teams in baseball over the past three months. They have a record of 50-30 since the calendar flipped to May.

Coming into the year, it was expected that the Jays would be aggressive if they were anywhere near contention. The fan base wasn’t happy coming into 2025, on the heels of some disappointing playoff exits and a dismal 2024 season. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract and general manager Ross Atkins is only signed through 2026. Many have wondered if they would be out of their jobs if the Jays missed the playoffs this year. Since they happen to be doing quite well, the team understandably wants to put a proverbial foot on the gas pedal.

They have been seeking upgrades to their pitching staff. However, their rotation is fairly steady, with a number of decent options. They currently have Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Eric Lauer taking the ball regularly. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt have been rocks all year long, with each of them having an ERA between 3.82 and 4.24. Lauer, a minor league signee, has stepped up to give the Jays 74 innings with a 2.68 ERA. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s been helped by a .239 batting average on balls in play and 82.2% strand rate, but it’s been a godsend for the Jays nonetheless. Scherzer has missed a lot of time due to injury but has been passable when on the mound, with a 4.98 ERA in seven starts.

It’s a solid group but one lacking a clear dominant ace-type guy that they would want taking the ball to start a playoff series. Guys like that are hard to acquire. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan but all indications are that those guys are unlikely to move. Even if some club can acquire them, the asking price is sure to be massive.

Bieber has been that kind of guy in the past. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the 2019-2021 seasons, winning a Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 campaign. Over that three-year span, he tossed 388 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. By FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, he was one of the ten best pitchers in the majors.

Whether he can get back to that level is anyone’s guess. In 2022, he was still very effective, posting a 2.88 ERA in 200 innings. However, his strikeout rate dipped to 25%, still strong but below his prior levels. In 2023, he was limited by elbow injuries to 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA and and 20.1% strikeout rate. In 2024, he made two dominant starts before he required his aforementioned surgery.

A pessimist would say that Bieber has been on the downslope for years. An optimist would say that Bieber’s elbow was probably hampering him long before he went under the knife and that he can get back to his dominant form with a clean bill of health. The Jays probably aren’t sure themselves which view is more correct but they’re putting some chips on the latter.

As of now, a best-case scenario for the Jays would see Bieber dominate through a playoff run, at which point he would opt out and return to free agency. It’s possible that they try to alter that path by signing him to a new deal. They have done a trade-and-extend before. They acquired Berríos from the Twins at the 2021 deadline, when he had a year and a half of club control left. A few months later, they signed him to a lengthy extension. Presumably, they will want to wait to see how things go in the next few weeks or months, but that is a theoretical possibility with Bieber.

Whether that happens or not, they have perhaps crossed a notable line by acquiring Bieber. RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number above $284MM with Bieber added. That’s just an estimate but going over $281MM would mean Toronto’s top 2026 draft pick would be moved back by ten slots. Cot’s Baseball Contracts gives them a bit more breathing room, having them at $273MM. That yet doesn’t include Bieber.

A player’s CBT hit is recalculated at the time of a trade. Bieber is still owed about $19.33MM over a season and a third. That works out to a CBT hit of about $14.5MM. Prorating that over the final third of the season would add a bit less than $5MM to Toronto’s CBT number. According to Cot’s, acquiring Bieber wouldn’t put them over the line. Clarity on that might not come until later and the Jays might alter the picture with other moves.

For the Guardians, they have hovered around contention for a lot of the year. However, they have struggled a bit in recent months. They’re not totally buried, currently just 2.5 games back of a playoff spot. But they recently lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation. It seems they have decided they’d rather sell than try to make a push this year. Recent reporting has suggested they would look to move Bieber and outfielder Steven Kwan, though the latter ultimately stayed in Cleveland.

By giving up a wild card in Bieber, the Guardians have added an arm with a strong chance to help them in the future. Stephen, 22, was Toronto’s second-round pick last year. This year, he has already climbed from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. Across those three levels, he has logged 91 2/3 innings with a 2.06 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.

Baseball America ranks Stephen the #5 prospect in the Jays’ system. He has a five-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup and cutter. FanGraphs recently published an updated top 100 list ahead of the deadline with Stephen up at #80 in the league.

It’s a nice swap for the Guards, turning a wild card 30-year-old who was maybe about to become a free agent into a potential future rotation building block. For the Jays, it’s a risky ploy, but they’re clearly shooting for upside. The roster is already fairly well rounded with good contributors throughout the lineup, rotation and bullpen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they had interest in closers Jhoan Durán and Mason Miller, though those arms have been traded to the Phillies and Padres, respectively.  Instead, closer to the trade deadline the Jays were able to land Louis Varland from the Twins in a surprise deal.

For now, the Jays can keep their five-man rotation intact. In the coming weeks, perhaps someone will have to be bumped out for Bieber, maybe after he makes another rehab start or two. The Jays also have Alek Manoah on a rehab assignment, working back from his own Tommy John surgery. It’s an interesting cluster of talent as the club looks to make a push through October.

Photos courtesy of Jeff Lange, D. Ross Cameron, Bruce Newman, Imagn Images

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