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Passan’s Latest: Harper, Profar, Gray, Ray, Grandal, Pollock, Ender

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It’s too soon to count out a reunion between Bryce Harper and the Nationals, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes in his latest column, as “Harper has met multiple times with representatives” from the team.  In a rather surprisingly open interview last month, Nats managing principal owner Mark Lerner said his organization wasn’t willing to go beyond the ten-year, $300MM extension it offered Harper after the season, though rumors have continued to swirl that Washington is still at least monitoring Harper’s market.  It could still be some time before we have an answer about Harper’s 2019 destination, as the outfielder (like many Scott Boras clients) is in no rush to sign a contract that doesn’t meet his satisfaction.  The Phillies and White Sox, Passan reports, are willing to guarantee Harper at least a ten-year deal, indicating that the two teams have at least made some progress in their pursuit of the free agent outfielder, though obviously the gigantic dollar figure Harper is demanding is still a very notable obstacle.

Some more hot stove items from Passan….

  • Before the Rangers dealt Jurickson Profar to the Athletics as part of a three-team trade with the Rays, Texas also explored another three-team scenario involving the Yankees and Braves.  “There was traction, at one point,” Passan writes about a deal that would have seen the Yankees get Profar, the Braves get Sonny Gray, and Texas would have received a prospect (presumably from Atlanta’s farm system).
  • The Diamondbacks would only consider trading Robbie Ray for a very big return, with Passan noting that Arizona would want more for Ray than the Mariners received from the Yankees for James Paxton back in November.  While both Ray and Paxton are front-of-the-rotation southpaws with two remaining years of team control, Ray is almost three full years younger than Paxton, which would explain Arizona’s higher asking price.  That deal saw Seattle land an MLB-ready pitching prospect (Justus Sheffield), another young arm on the brink of the majors (Erik Swanson) and a promising lower-level position player (outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams).  It’s a steep price tag, though at least two teams with a lot of minor league depth have been linked to Ray in trade rumors.
  • News broke last week that Yasmani Grandal turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets, though Passan says that such an offer was “never officially presented,” and that the terms were “characterized by sources on both sides as more of a discussion.”  Grandal’s market seems a little uncertain right now, due to the number of catcher-needy teams who have already found other backstops, and the looming presence of J.T. Realmuto on the trade market.  With draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer hanging over Grandal’s services, there is some threat of Grandal becoming (in the words of one executive) “this year’s version of Mike Moustakas,” i.e. a QO free agent whose market thins to the point that he is forced to accept a one-year contract.  Grandal accepting a one-year deal “remains unlikely but not out of question,” as per Passan, though the catcher and his camp are reportedly “staying patient” that a satisfactory multi-year deal will eventually surface.
  • A.J. Pollock is one of many big-name free agents whose markets may not get moving until Harper and/or Manny Machado sign new contracts.  As Passan notes, Pollock is a good fit for both the Phillies and White Sox, though those teams are more likely to focus on Harper and Machado before turning to backup plans.  Three executive tell Passan that Pollock’s situation bears similarity to Lorenzo Cain last winter, who had to wait until late January to find a new contract, though his market quickly heated up to the point that he was able to land a hefty five-year, $80MM deal from the Brewers.
  • We heard during the Winter Meetings about the Reds’ interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, though Passan writes that “talks stagnated” between the two sides, and Cincinnati then pivoted to acquire outfield help in the form of Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  Neither of those two are viable center field options, of course, so the Reds remain on the hunt for a replacement for Billy Hamilton.

East Notes: Manny, Yankees, Mets, Pollock, Britton, Nats

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A few notes from the East Coast, where the first day of 2019 is nearing an end…

  • Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper raised eyebrows on social media last month when he “liked” an Instagram post relating to the Dodgers. Not to be outdone, fellow superstar free agent Manny Machado may have hinted about his own future plans on Instagram, as Jon Heyman of Fancred point outed out on Monday. Machado began following the YES Network, which broadcasts most Yankees games and which the franchise owns a portion of, only to quickly unfollow it when people took notice. Machado’s apparent interest in YES may be much ado about nothing, but for the moment, it has added a bit of intrigue to what looks like a three-horse race for his services.
  • Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen “remains engaged” on the trade market, according to the New York Post’s Mike Puma, who reports the team is seeking an outfielder, a reliever (preferably a lefty), starting pitching depth and a backup infielder. Signing free-agent outfielder A.J. Pollock would address one of those needs, though Van Wagenen implied last month that wouldn’t happen, and Puma hears the Mets are leery of giving the 31-year-old a big contract. Similarly, the Mets are “unlikely” to go after lefty reliever Zach Britton in free agency, Puma writes.
  • With the Nationals gearing up for the arrival of prospect Carter Kieboom, they may not sign a free-agent second baseman to anything more than a one-year deal, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic suggests (subscription required). The Nationals have shown interest in free agent DJ LeMahieu, but because he’s seeking a multiyear deal, there might not be a match between the sides. Free agent Brian Dozier, who could be in line for a one-year pact, would be a better fit, Ghiroli posits. The club has also expressed interest in Dozier this winter.

3 Remaining Needs: NL West

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In the latest edition of MLBTR’s “3 Remaining Needs” series, we’ll focus on the National League West, a division ruled by the iron-fist of the Dodgers — division champs for six years running. With at least two playoff teams in each of the last three seasons, however, the competition remains fierce. Though the Diamondbacks are likely to take a step back this year, the Giants have new leadership in the front office, the Padres have the foreword to their Cinderella story ready to print, and the Rockies will be giving all they’ve got in what could be Nolan Arenado’s last season in Colorado.

[Previous installments: NL East, NL Central, AL West]

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Replace A.J. Pollock. Whether they move Ketel Marte to center field or find a replacement on the trade market, the position needs to be addressed. Jarrod Dyson doesn’t offer enough upside, even to build value as a trade candidate, nor do the veterans signed to minor league deals thus far this offseason (Abraham Almonte, Kelby Tomlinson, Matt Szczur). They can attempt to build the value of an otherwise depreciating asset, a la Socrates Brito, they can move Marte to center and sign a stopgap veteran to flip at the deadline, a la Asdrubal Cabrera or Brian Dozier, or they can engage the trade market for an option in between those two, a la Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Pillar or Randal Grichuk.
  • Trade Zack Greinke. Or if not Greinke, then at least one of Robbie Ray or Zack Godley. The Dbacks also have winter acquisitions Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly slated for the rotation, plus Taijuan Walker aiming for a midseason return. That’s not necessarily a terrible collection if they’re looking to contend, but considering the Dodgers depth, the Rockies urgency, and the sleeping giant in San Diego, it’s a tough row to hoe for the Diamondbacks in the West, and the Wild Card race is no less forgiving – especially now that they’ve bolstered a perennial contender in St. Louis. Assuming Arizona is willing to take a step back – even if just for a year – then it behooves them to make room at the major league level for the group of Jon Duplantier, Taylor Widener and Taylor Clarke, their #1, #2 and #11 ranked prospects (per MLB.com). All three are at least 24 and coming off strong seasons in either Double or Triple A. Clarke is the closest, but also has the lowest ceiling, which is even more reason to give him a go while the others season in Triple A. Besides, trading one of their major league starters will help accomplish task #3.
  • Further build prospect depth. They’ve got a ton of top 100 draft picks in June and already jumpstarted their youth movement by trading Goldschmidt and letting Corbin and (presumably) Pollock walk. While they’re at it, they should explore lesser returns for Nick Ahmed, Andrew Chafin, Yoshihisa Hirano or Alex Avila. They’ve resisted overtures for David Peralta thus far, but he’s 31 and still controllable on a year-to-year basis through 2020, which makes him perfect for a contender like Cleveland.

Colorado Rockies

  • Upgrade at catcher. Extending Arenado maybe should be the main priority, but if he’s set on testing free agency, the Rockies would do just as well devoting their energy to making Colorado as attractive a destination as possible, and that means building a sustainable winner. The budget is likely too tight for Yasmani Grandal, but Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters struggled at the dish last season, so if they can backload a deal to spike after 2020 when most of their long-term money comes off the books,
  • Add a veteran to the bench. The Rockies are in the midst of a mini youth movement with David Dahl, Garrett Hampson, Ryan McMahon and Raimel Tapia slated for significant playing time. They’ve added Daniel Murphy, who likely replaces DJ LeMahieu, but they could use a vet on the bench to fill the shoes of Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday and Gerardo Parra.
  • Keep an eye on pitching. The Rockies have their best rotation in years, but they could use an extra arm at the right price. Antonio Senzatela has the inside track on the fifth starter role for now, and they have a host of options in the organization, but there’s room for the right guy. Same goes for the bullpen, which is stocked with high-priced veterans like Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw and Mike Dunn. They need to replace the production they received last season from Adam Ottavino, but they may want to give this group a couple months to make it work. Basically, they have no cause to overreach on pitching, but if they have a target or two they like whose prices drop, they should be ready to bite.

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Find a catcher. Say what you will about Grandal’s playoff woes, but he was still a top-notch regular-season producer with the Dodgers from 2015-18. Now a free agent, reports have indicated the 30-year-old Grandal is unlikely to return to the Dodgers. At the major league level, the Grandal-less Dodgers are bereft at catcher aside from Austin Barnes, who took sizable steps backward last season after an excellent 2017. The Dodgers do have a pair of appealing backstop prospects in Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith, but they aren’t ready to assume the reins yet. Los Angeles will at least need to find a stopgap, then, though free agency’s not teeming with possibilities. If healthy, the Pirates’ Francisco Cervelli– who has reportedly been on the Dodgers’ radar – would make for a nice one-year Band-Aid. Former Dodger Russell Martin might also be available, but the current Blue Jay owns a pricey $20MM salary. Welington Castillo of the White Sox ($7.75MM guaranteed) could become expendable if Chicago goes after Grandal, and the Mets have two trade candidates in Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. Of course, the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto is far and away the premier option on the market, and the Dodgers have been involved in talks for him. However, LA is not ready to meet Miami’s lofty demands for the 27-year-old.
  • Land another offensive threat, especially if Realmuto doesn’t end up in LA. The Dodgers’ offense led the majors in wRC+ and finished fourth in runs in 2018, but the group has since lost Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Manny Machado. The back-to-back NL pennant winners still carry a boatload of formidable producers – including Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Corey Seager (whose 2018 absence paved the way for the Machado pickup), Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor and Joc Pederson – but why stop there? The Dodgers don’t seem inclined to, judging by their interest in No. 1 free agent Bryce Harper and Tigers outfielder Nicholas Castellanos – a righty who’d provide balance to a lefty-heavy lineup.
  • You can never have enough great starting pitching. Even though they traded Alex Wood to the Reds this month, the Dodgers’ starting staff remains as deep as any in the game. As things stand, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson and Dennis Santana represent a group of rather strong choices. Nevertheless, the Dodgers may want another front-end presence to join Kershaw (who hasn’t been as durable or as otherworldly of late) and Buehler, as they’ve pursued a trade for the Indians’ Corey Kluber. The two-time AL Cy Young winner has exceeded 200 innings in each season since 2014. That type of durability would be a breath of fresh air for the Dodgers, who have seen Kershaw, Ryu, Hill and Urias deal with significant injuries in recent years.

San Diego Padres

  • Acquire a top of the rotation veteran. The Padres have been linked to Corey Kluber, Marcus Stroman and Sonny Gray recently – they clearly want to bring in a veteran to anchor their young rotation. Clayton Richard, their innings leader form a year ago, was recently cut loose, signaling a raising of the bar in San Diego. They’re looking not just for an innings eater, but a quality ace to set the standard on the hill. Joey Lucchesi, 25 had a solid rookie season, sporting a 4.08 ERA, 2.98 BB/9 to 10.04 K/9, but he needs some help in the rotation if the Padres are going to start to push the Rockies and Dodgers.
  • Get a third baseman. Wil Myers, Christian Villanueva, Cory Spangenberg and Chase Headley were the four Padres who saw action at third in 2018, and three are now gone. Villanueva’s in Japan, Spanbenberg’s a Brewer and Headley has fallen off the map since the Padres released him last May. Myers, meanwhile, is more a fit at first base – where, because of Eric Hosmer’s presence, he can no longer play in San Diego – or in the corner outfield. As a result, upgrading at the hot corner is reportedly the Padres’ No. 1 priority heading into next season. Whether they can do it is the question. While the Padres seem bullish on Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar, whom the Bombers may move this offseason, they likely don’t have the ammunition at the major league level to acquire him. The Padres could also try for the Phillies’ Maikel Franco, whom they had interest in last summer and who will lose his spot in Philly if it signs Machado. In terms of salary, more expensive trade candidates include the Mariners’ Kyle Seager (though he could be immovable for Seattle), the Marlins’ Martin Prado, the Mets’ Todd Frazier, and current Cardinal and ex-Padre Jedd Gyorko. Free agency features Hosmer’s pal Mike Moustakas, among other less exciting choices.
  • Clear the outfield logjam. Along with Myers, the Padres have a gaggle of other MLB outfielders in Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski. Excluding Myers, San Diego could option any of those players to the minors, but the team may be better off moving at least one of them if it helps address a position of greater need. The Padres could try to deal Myers, but despite his middling production from 2017-18 and the $64MM left on his contract, they’re still bullish on the 28-year-old. It seems more likely another outfielder will go.

San Francisco Giants

  • Acquire at least one starting outfielder. Perhaps the Giants could help the Padres with their backlog of outfielders, if the two division rivals are willing to make a trade. Few 2018 teams were worse off in the grass than the Giants, whose outfielders hit an ugly .238/.307/.363 with 0.1 fWAR over nearly 2,200 plate appearances. The only bright spot was Andrew McCutchen, whom the Giants traded to the Yankees in August and who’s now on the Phillies. So now what? Well, new team president Farhan Zaidi wants the Giants to get younger and more athletic. The 26-year-old Harper checks the young and athletic boxes, but there’s no indication the Giants are interested in coming anywhere close to his asking price. Unfortunately for the Giants, no one else in free agency looks like a perfect fit, but that’s not to say it would be wise to avoid the open market entirely. On the trade front, the Giants have reportedly shown interest in Blue Jays defensive standout Kevin Pillar, who will turn 30 on Jan. 4. Pillar has never been a real threat at the plate, meaning he wouldn’t do a lot to upgrade a San Francisco offense which scored the majors’ second-fewest runs in 2018. Nevertheless, as a player who has totaled at least 2.0 fWAR four years in a row, he’d give the Giants a desperately needed quality regular in the outfield. With Steven Duggar, Mac Williamson and Chris Shaw penciled into No. 1 roles, the Giants don’t have a single established starter in the grass at this juncture.
  • Add to the pitching staff. Derek Holland led all Giants in innings last season and was quite effective from their rotation, but he’s now a free agent. Whether he’ll return is unclear, but San Francisco’s probably going to have to re-sign him or bring in someone else capable of eating innings. Madison Bumgarner is coming off back-to-back injury-shortened years and, if he’s not a trade candidate prior to the 2019 campaign, may become one by midseason; Jeff Samardzija had a horrendous 2018, both because of injury and performance issues; Johnny Cueto may not pitch in 2019, having undergone Tommy John surgery; and while there’s hope for Dereck Rodriguez, Chris Stratton and Andrew Suarez, only Rodriguez’s production was worth writing home about last season. Yusei Kikuchi – whom the Giants “scouted extensively,” according to Zaidi – would’ve been a great fit. Sadly for San Francisco, he’s going to Seattle. The 27-year-old Kikuchi may have been the only long-term possibility in free agency for the Giants, as nearly everyone remaining on the market is over 30. But there are a lot of hurlers in that bunch who could be sensible, affordable short-term targets, and the Giants could use pitcher-friendly AT&T Park to their advantage to scoop up at least one of them. The same logic applies to the Giants’ bullpen. Their relief unit performed well last year, but there could be an opening or two to fill if the Giants trade Will Smith or Tony Watson.
  • Bolster the catching and infield depth. After undergoing season-ending hip surgery in August, catcher Buster Posey may not be ready at the start of the upcoming campaign. There’s little behind him in San Francisco, whose only other 40-man catcher is Aramis Garcia, though it could select ex-Phillies starter Cameron Rupp from Triple-A at some point. Free agent Nick Hundley, Posey’s backup from 2017-18, could return to the team. Across the infield, the Giants seem to have set starters at every position, but it’s not the promising group it would’ve looked like a few years back. Injury-prone first baseman Brandon Belt battled more health issues last season and dealt with a dip in production, and has been in trade rumors this month; second baseman Joe Panik was neither good nor healthy; shortstop Brandon Crawford wasn’t the same player from 2017-18 that he was over the prior two years; and third baseman Evan Longoria, at 33, appears to have hit a wall. Alen Hanson and Pablo Sandoval lead the Giants’ depth options, but there’s room for more. The team agrees, evidenced by its recent reported interest in free agents Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Harrison.

Pirates Sign Tyler Lyons

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The Pirates have signed left-handed reliever Tyler Lyons to a minor league pact, John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com reports.

Pittsburgh’s plenty familiar with Lyons, who had been with NL Central rival St. Louis since it selected him in the 2010 draft. Lyons, a former starter, debuted with the Cardinals in 2013 and later emerged as an effective piece out of their bullpen. Over 97 appearances (89 in relief) and 162 innings from 2015-17, Lyons posted a 3.33 ERA. He was particularly excellent in 2017, a 54-frame showing in which he logged a 2.83 ERA with 11.33 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and a 41.9 percent groundball rate.

The Redbirds were likely expecting more of the same from Lyons in 2018, but the 30-year-old’s season went awry as he battled back and elbow injuries. While Lyons continued to strike out hitters at a solid clip (10.26 per nine), his walks increased (4.32 BB/9), his grounder rate dropped to alarming degrees (28.3 percent) and his home run rate went from .5 per nine the previous season to 1.62. He also surrendered a ridiculously high .412 batting average on balls in play and only recorded a 60.4 percent strand rate. All of that led to an 8.64 ERA across 16 2/3 innings for Lyons, whom the Cardinals designated for assignment in late July. Lyons spent the rest of the season at Triple-A, where he offered far better production (2.49 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 in 21 2/3 innings), and then elected free agency in October.

Considering Lyons’ past success and the makeup of the Pirates’ bullpen, he could earn a major league shot in Pittsburgh in 2019. Aside from closer Felipe Vazquez, the only lefty reliever on the Bucs’ 40-man roster is Steven Brault, who has struggled in the bigs since debuting in 2016.

Rockies Sign Michael Saunders

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The Rockies have signed outfielder Michael Saunders to a minor league contract, Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage reports. They’re Saunders’ first team since the White Sox released him in late June.

A former top prospect with Seattle, Saunders has been a solid major leaguer at times – including during an All-Star 2016 with the Blue Jays. Saunders’ numbers plummeted in the second half of his All-Star season, though, and he has fallen off the radar over the past couple years.

In 2017, which he opened with the Phillies after they awarded him a $9MM guarantee in free agency, Saunders managed a disastrous .202/.256/.344 batting line in 234 major league plate appearances. He struggled so badly in Philadelphia that the club released him midway through the season, leading the Canadian-born Saunders to return to the Blue Jays on a minors deal. However, Saunders was unable to rebound in Toronto or with its Triple-A affiliate.

Unfortunately for Saunders, his stock took an even greater hit in 2018. Not only did Saunders fail to reach the majors with the bottom-feeding Orioles or White Sox, but his production tanked with their minor league teams. Across 154 PAs at the Triple-A level, the 32-year-old batted .158/.273/.248.

Quick Hits: Stark, Blue Jays, Atkins, Astros

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The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (subscription required) has delivered his traditional year-end rundown of some of the weirdest stats and moments from the past baseball season.  Stark’s piece covers such oddities as Adrian Beltre’s eight straight seasons with exactly one stolen base, Framber Valdez’s oddly similar first two MLB starts, the Pirates pulling off a 1-3-4-2-5-8-7 double play, and how Juan Soto’s first career homer shattered the space-time continuum.

Some more from around baseball as we kick off 2019…

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed several topics during a conference call with reporters (including Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm), including his team’s recent acquisitions of Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard.  Atkins said the two veteran hurlers will likely be used in the rotation if physically able, though he stopped short of fully confirming that usage, noting that “both guys have the potential to start,” and “I do think there could be a scenario where either one of them or potentially both could be used in a (different) role.”  The Jays still have a need for pitching, and Atkins said that the club will continue to look at adding more starters and relievers as the offseason continues, both in free agency and perhaps in trades, as Toronto continues to receive interest from other teams.  “We’ll continue to consider any opportunities to move players potentially off of our roster.  It’s not something we are proactively looking to do, but we do have a great number of players that other teams are interested in,” Atkins said.  He also specifically noted that catcher Russell Martin is “interesting to a lot of teams.”
  • Though the Astros have been linked to several first base/designated hitter types this winter, The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (subscription required) notes that the team could be in good shape as it stands by having Tyler White get a regular share of DH at-bats.  White posted a .276/.354/.533 slash line over 237 PA last season, and he could join with the Astros’ left-handed outfielders (Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, or Tony Kemp) in a timeshare at DH to keep everyone fresh.  However, Kaplan also feels Houston will need to move an outfielder before Opening Day to alleviate a playing time crunch, which means that Kemp, Jake Marisnick, or possibly top prospect Kyle Tucker could all be trade candidates.  There were also some rumblings about Reddick on the trade market last month, so it could be that Brantley and George Springer are the only two untouchable outfielders on Houston’s roster.  Kaplan’s mailbag piece is well worth a full read, as it covers several other topics about the Astros’ offseason and potential long-term moves for the club.

How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2018

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We took a look this morning at what National League teams have done to improve their weakest position (as per bWAR) from the past season, and now let’s turn our attention to the 15 American League clubs….

Angels (Third base, -0.1 bWAR): Unfortunately for the Halos, this was a close competition to decide their least-productive position, as they received an even 0.0 bWAR from first base and only 0.1 bWAR from their right fielders.  L.A. will be counting on a healthy season from Zack Cozart to upgrade the hot corner, though if the Angels were able to land Josh Harrison, Cozart could be shifted to second base while Harrison plays third, with sophomore infielder David Fletcher backing up both positions.  In right field, the Angels are hoping Kole Calhoun can bounce back from a rough season, though there has been some speculation that the team could try to unload Calhoun to free up some payroll space.  Justin Bour was signed to play first base in at least a timeshare with Albert Pujols, though given how Pujols has struggled in recent years, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the future Hall-of-Famer supplanted by Bour and DH Shohei Ohtani (once Ohtani returns from Tommy John surgery) entirely.

Astros (Left field, 1.3 bWAR): Michael Brantley is coming to Houston after signing a two-year, $32MM deal, giving the Astros perhaps an overload of left-handed outfielders, though Brantley should provide some solid pop in the lineup.  The Astros’ second-weakest area was their 1.4 bWAR from their designated hitters, though Brantley is likely to help in that regard as well, as his injury history will probably mean that he gets the occasional partial-rest day as the DH.  Houston has continued to be linked to such first base/DH options as Edwin Encarnacion or the Cardinals’ Jose Martinez, so the DH spot could still receive some more attention.

Athletics (Catcher, -0.5 bWAR): Even after signing Chris Herrmann to pair with Josh Phegley, Oakland continues to be on the lookout for a more stable everyday backstop.  A reunion with Jonathan Lucroy won’t be happening now that Lucroy has signed with the Angels.  Assuming Yasmani Grandal is too expensive for the A’s, there isn’t much in the way of a clear upgrade from a hitting perspective left on the free agent catching market, though Martin Maldonado provides a nice defensive boost.  I’d guess that a trade is more likely if the A’s are to land another regular catcher.

Blue Jays (Left field, 0.2 bWAR): Teoscar Hernandez saw the bulk of the left field playing time last season, hitting .239/.302/.468 for a 107 wRC+ over 523 PA, but also looking completely out of his element defensively.  While the rebuilding Jays are likely to give Hernandez another shot to prove he can handle the position, he won’t have a very long leash, as Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford, and Dwight Smith Jr. are all on hand to soak up playing time and perhaps relegate Hernandez to future DH duty.  Toronto also received only 0.4 bWAR at both second base and third base last season, though the team hopes that uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will soon provide a major splash at the hot corner.  Brandon Drury will handle third base until Guerrero arrives, and then slide over to second base in a timeshare or perhaps an everyday role if Devon Travis doesn’t improve on a rough 2018 campaign.

Indians (Right field, 0.5 bWAR): Cleveland has spent much of its offseason focus on cutting payroll and overhauling its first base/DH situation, leaving a lot of work still to be done on the Tribe’s biggest weakness, its shaky outfield.  Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Lonnie Chisenhall have all signed elsewhere, while Cleveland’s only additions have been Jordan Luplow, minor league signings Trayce Thompson and Brandon Barnes, and first baseman Jake Bauers, who could see a bit of time as a corner outfielder.  The Indians have looked to add young outfielders in trade talks about their starting pitching, with names like the Dodgers’ Alex Verdugo or the Reds’ Nick Senzel or Taylor Trammell popping up on the Tribe’s radar, though it remains to be seen if Cleveland still feels the financial need to move Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer.

Mariners (First base, 0.1 bWAR): Technically, Seattle has added Edwin Encarnacion to handle first, though the M’s are widely expected to flip Encarnacion elsewhere as part of their stunning roster overhaul.  With the Mariners firmly in rebuild mode for at least 2019, they might choose to just rely on internal options for first base, like giving another shot to Ryon Healy and/or Dan Vogelbach.  Jay Bruce is also on hand to play some first base, if he isn’t also traded before Opening Day.

Orioles (First base, -2.5 bWAR): Baltimore already cleaned house on many of its veterans at the last trade deadline, though Chris Davis (and the $92MM remaining on his contract) is all but immovable in the wake of Davis’ horrific 2018 season.  There’s nothing the O’s can really do here except hope that Davis can regain some of his old form.  If the O’s are able to trade Mark Trumbo in the last year of his contract, you could see Trey Mancini gets moved to first base and Davis shifted into DH duty, as the rebuilding Orioles obviously want to prioritize Mancini’s development and may want to get him to a more defensively-friendly position than left field.

Rangers (Center field, 0.2 bWAR): Roster Resource currently has Joey Gallo slated as the Texas center fielder, as a nod to the Rangers’ acquisition of Patrick Wisdom for third base and the team’s glut of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield options.  While Gallo’s versatility is a nice weapon for the Rangers to utilize, and he has acquitted himself well defensively over 100 career innings in center field, nobody sees him as a regular answer at the position.  Delino DeShields has the glove and the baserunning for center, though his hitting cratered last season and he had trouble staying healthy last year.  The Rangers could add a low-cost veteran outfielder into the mix, simply because Gallo and DeShields are both imperfect enough fits to work as a proper timeshare, though Texas might first have to deal another first baseman/corner outfielder to find another everyday spot for Gallo’s bat.

Rays (First base, 1.4 bWAR): Just when you thought Jake Bauers was the first baseman of the future, the Rays dealt him to the Cleveland as part of a three-team swap that saw Yandy Diaz come back to Tampa Bay.  Diaz’s positional versatility makes him a better fit with the Rays’ desire to mix and match around the diamond, which leaves Ji-Man Choi as the top choice at either first base or DH, with Diaz, Matt Duffy, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, or perhaps prospect Nathaniel Lowe all rotating through the other position as matchups dictate.  There continue to be whispers that the Rays could acquire a more potent bat for its first base/DH mix, however, so stay tune.  Right field (1.6 bWAR) and catcher (1.7 bWAR) were also relative weak spots for Tampa, though the team hopes that Austin Meadows can step into regular outfield duty now that Mallex Smith has been dealt, and Mike Zunino was acquired in the Smith trade to address the Rays’ longstanding need behind the plate.

Red Sox (Catcher, -1.4 bWAR): Boston is reportedly still getting some calls about its catchers, even though the trio of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, and Blake Swihart provided sub-replacement level production for the team in its World Series season.  Vazquez and Leon can at least hang their hats on good defense and game-calling ability, while Swihart isn’t too far removed from being a top prospect, even if his ultimate future might not be behind the plate.  The Red Sox seem satisfied with their mix at least from a defensive standpoint, though I’m surprised that the Sox have rarely been mentioned as candidates to acquire a new catcher, whether it’s a big name like J.T. Realmuto or even just a regular who can provide at least average production.  It’s worth noting that Boston also received negative bWAR totals at third base (-0.4) and second base (-0.2).  The Sox will count on improvement from Rafael Devers for the former, and will be hoping that Dustin Pedroia can return healthy next season, with Brock Holt and Eduardo Nunez on hand as infield backups.

Royals (Relief pitching, -3.0 bWAR): The old “Law Firm” bullpen of the 2015 World Series run was a distant memory for the 2018 Royals, who endured some brutal relief pitching among the team’s many struggles last season.  The Royals haven’t done anything to really address their pen thus far, and in fact have added more inexperience in the form of Rule 5 Draft pickups Chris Ellis and Sam McWilliams.  Expect K.C. to pursue the usual rebuilding-team strategy of signing a couple of inexpensive veteran arms, who can ideally help stabilize the pen in the first few months of the season and then be flipped at the trade deadline.

Tigers (DH, -0.9 bWAR): Now that Victor Martinez has retired, the Tigers can get a bit more flexibility from their DH spot by giving Miguel Cabrera some regular rest days away from first base, or the team could give some rest to defensively-challenged bats like Christin Stewart or Nick Castellanos (assuming Castellanos isn’t traded, of course).  Detroit also received just -0.5 bWAR at catcher last season, and has since parted ways with longtime backstop James McCann.  Greyson Greiner and John Hicks now comprise the catching corps, and while veteran Bobby Wilson was signed for depth, the Tigers are likely to add at least one more experienced backstop going into Spring Training.  Interestingly, the Tigers asked the Dodgers about catching prospect Keibert Ruiz as part of trade talks involving Castellanos, though L.A. balked at the request.

Twins (First base, 0.8 bWAR): C.J. Cron’s 30-homer career year with the Rays last season earned him nothing more than a trip to DFA limbo, leading Minnesota to claim the veteran to step in as Joe Mauer’s replacement.  Cron doesn’t bring much to the table apart from decent hitting numbers, though even duplicating his 2.0 bWAR 2018 season would be a solid upgrade for the Twins, especially at his arbitration-avoiding $4.8MM salary.

White Sox (Left field, -0.5 bWAR): Chicago was regarded as something of a sleeping giant this offseason, though their most notable acquisitions (Yonder Alonso, Alex Colome and Ivan Nova) have been more of the modest variety than any true game-changers.  It could be that they’re waiting to see how things stand as one of three apparent finalists for Manny Machado, though the Sox are reportedly wary of spending the kind of gigantic money it will take to land Machado or Bryce Harper.  The White Sox were linked to Brantley before he signed with Houston, and they have at least some level of interest in Harper, indicating that the team is taking steps to remake its poor outfield production.  Chicago outfielders combined for just a cumulative -0.3 bWAR last season, the second-lowest total of any outfield in baseball.  Avisail Garcia has already been non-tendered, leaving the Sox with a current combination of Nicky Delmonico, Adam Engel, Daniel Palka, and Leury Garcia that is still begging for an upgrade.  There haven’t yet been any reports connecting the White Sox to A.J. Pollock, the top non-Harper outfielder in free agency, though Pollock makes sense for Chicago on paper.

Yankees (First base, 0.6 bWAR): Late-season folk hero Luke Voit and former top prospect Greg Bird are slated for first base duty next season, though it seems like everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop with Machado.  If Machado does end up in New York, it could lead to Miguel Andujar being traded, unless the Yankees see more value in keeping Andujar and simply installing him at first base.  Given Andujar’s defensive shortcomings as a third base, a move across the diamond might not be a bad idea even if Machado signs elsewhere.  Didi Gregorius’ injury absence has created a lot of moving parts within the Yankees’ infield, as New York could shift Gleyber Torres to play shortstop and then require a second baseman, Andujar could be traded or change positions, Machado could sign, etc.  With all this uncertainty and several trade possibilities to consider, I’d be a little surprised if Voit or Bird is the Opening Day first baseman, though the Yankees could address other needs and stand pat at first base, if for no other reason than to give Voit a longer look.

How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2018

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While we’re not even halfway through the offseason yet, the start of the new year feels like a natural checkpoint to look at what the National League’s 15 teams have done to upgrade themselves so far this winter.  Specifically, we’ll see what each NL team has done in regards to its least-productive position in 2018, as determined by bWAR.  Needless to say, we’ll ignore the DH category in this look at the National League’s clubs, and we can also set aside the pinch-hitter category unless a team has made significant strides with its bench.  The breakdown…

Braves (Relief pitching. 2.0 bWAR): Atlanta wins the door prize as the team with the best “worst” position, as you might expect from a division winner’s well-rounded roster.  It could also be argued that the Braves could improve from within, in the form of a healthy season from closer Arodys Vizcaino and some new blood in the form of the team’s many young starter candidates, who could be deployed as relief depth.  Still, a top-tier reliever (as either a closer or set-up man) would go a long way towards making the Braves’ pen into a true strength.  Atlanta has been more focused on position players and starting pitchers than relievers this winter, though the Braves had been linked to Edwin Diaz and Joakim Soria before those two landed on new teams.  There has been some speculation that Atlanta could pursue a reunion with Craig Kimbrel, but only if Kimbrel drastically lowers his reported asking price.  Given the Braves’ prospect depth and GM Alex Anthopoulos’ creativity in swinging deals, the team can’t be counted out in any sort of trade scenario for a high-profile reliever.

Brewers (Shortstop, -0.1 bWAR): Orlando Arcia turned in a sub-replacement season that saw him post his typical subpar batting line and also middling defensive numbers (-0.3 UZR/150, though a +4 Defensive Runs Saved).  There hasn’t been much indication that Milwaukee is ready to move on from Arcia, however, since he’s only just 24 and his hitting did improve later in the season, plus he was actually one of the Brewers’ hottest bats during their postseason run.  The Brewers have been more focused on second base upgrades rather than shortstops, though the team was one of many who observed Troy Tulowitzki’s recent open workout for scouts.  Tulowitzki fits the model of a short-term veteran who could back up Arcia and also provide cover at second or third base in a pinch, and he could be a lottery ticket on the off-chance that he stays healthy and regains any of his old All-Star form.

Cardinals (Relief pitching, -2.7 bWAR): The Andrew Miller signing was a bold strike for a Cards pen that has struggled to find consistent left-handed relief in recent years.  Miller struggled with injuries in 2018, though if he returns to his form of the previous three seasons, he is the type of elite arm that can greatly enhance a relief corps by himself.  St. Louis probably won’t add another premium reliever in the wake of their deal with Miller, though another depth arm could be acquired, or perhaps a veteran free agent who is still available deep into Spring Training and could be had at a bargain price.

Cubs (Center field, 1.8 bWAR): Albert Almora displayed some excellent glovework but didn’t hit, while Ian Happ had a 106 wRC+ but was a mediocre fielder in his 403 2/3 innings as a center fielder last season.  Jason Heyward also saw some center field time last season and contributed his usual good defensive performance, while still struggling to contribute at the plate.  It seems likely that Chicago will continue with this mix in 2019, as the club might use what seemingly limited payroll flexibility it has on other areas of need.

Diamondbacks (Catcher and right field, -0.3 bWAR): After being acquired from the Cardinals as part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade, Carson Kelly goes from being blocked by Yadier Molina to being Arizona’s catcher of the future.  Kelly also figures to be a big part of the Diamondbacks’ present, as he will likely get the bulk of playing time as the D’Backs split at-bats between Kelly, Alex Avila, and John Ryan Murphy.  As for right field, the D’Backs are hoping for a better year from Steven Souza Jr., who was limited to just 72 games and 272 plate appearances while battling a nagging pectoral injury.

Dodgers (Second base, 0.7 bWAR): Breakout star Max Muncy and super-utilityman Enrique Hernandez are the Dodgers’ top two current options at second base, and going with this pair could be an improvement simply by dint of moving on from the unproductive trio of Brian Dozier, Logan Forsythe, and Chase Utley.  Still, with Muncy and Hernandez perhaps needed elsewhere around the diamond as part of the Dodgers’ perpetual juggling of positions, L.A. has also been linked to DJ LeMahieu and Josh Harrison as potential free agent targets.

Giants (Left field, -0.2 bWAR): It’s been a very quiet winter in San Francisco, as new GM Farhan Zaidi continues to evaluate his roster and figure out what to do with the Giants’ plethora of highly-paid but underachieving players.  Outfield continues to be San Francisco’s most obvious need, as the team will look to add some experience to a young mix of Chris Shaw, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, and projected everyday center fielder Steven Duggar.  Whatever additions the Giants do make, they’re likely to be of the short-term variety, so you can probably cross the Giants off the list of potential Bryce Harper suitors.

Marlins (Relief pitching, -8.3 bWAR): Yes, you’re reading that correctly.  The Marlins were far worse than even the league’s 29th-best bullpen, the Royals and their -3.0 bWAR collective mark.  Furthermore, Miami has already traded one of its better arms in Kyle Barraclough, moved to the Nationals in a rare early-October swap.  The rebuilding Marlins certainly won’t be spending big on any major upgrades, and will instead likely look to add a couple of low-cost veterans to try and stabilize the relief corps as much as possible.

Mets (First base, -0.6 bWAR): Brodie Van Wagenen’s roster overhaul has included some action at first base, as Jay Bruce (who probably wasn’t going to find much time in the crowded Mets outfield) was sent to the Mariners as part of the blockbuster Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal.  While top prospect Peter Alonso figures to arrive sometime in 2019, the Mets have a variety of options in the meantime.  Jeff McNeil or Todd Frazier could see time at first, former well-regarded Dominic Smith is still in the mix, or Cano could get some first base at-bats while McNeil spells him at second base.

Nationals (Second base, -0.6 bWAR): You may be surprised to learn that catcher wasn’t Washington’s biggest weak point in 2018, though the Nats’ backstops weren’t far behind at -0.4 bWAR.  While the newly-acquired Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki should be a big help behind the plate, the Nats also haven’t been lax in observing the second base market.  LeMahieu, Harrison, Dozier, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jed Lowrie are some of the names Washington has reportedly been in contact with, so it seems likely that some type of addition will be made before Opening Day.  Internally, Wilmer Difo is on hand, plus Howie Kendrick will be back after missing most of last season due to a ruptured Achilles.

Padres (Starting pitching, -4.1 bWAR): It seems like the Padres have checked in on virtually every pitcher available in free agency or the trade market, as they are aiming to upgrade their rotation with at least one frontline name.  The long list of names linked to the Friars includes Dallas Keuchel, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Leake, and probably a couple dozen more we haven’t yet heard about.  With the game’s deepest minor league system, the Padres can be a player in any trade negotiation, though the club is reportedly unwilling to deal any of its very top prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias), which could be a setback in trying to land a true ace-level starter.

Phillies (Shortstop, -1.7 bWAR): Philadelphia addressed this position in decisive fashion, landing Jean Segura in a major five-player trade with the Mariners.  The chain reaction of the trade also improved the team at another position, as Rhys Hoskins’ dreadful left field glove balanced out his strong offense, leaving the Phillies with just 0.1 bWAR from its left fielders in 2018.  Hoskins’ move to first base is a big help in that respect, and the signing of Andrew McCutchen also provides a notable boost in right field, where the Phillies had more sub-replacement level production (-1.0 bWAR).  More could still be on the way for the Phillies, who have also been interested in several top pitchers and relievers, plus (of course) Harper and Manny Machado.

Pirates (Shortstop, -0.7 bWAR): Given how little the Bucs got out of the position last season, the team was willing to let longtime shortstop Jordy Mercer depart in free agency.  Prospect Kevin Newman is penciled in for more playing time in 2019 and Erik Gonzalez was also acquired as a more general utility infield option, though Pittsburgh has also been looking around at other veteran shortstop options.  The Pirates are another team that has scouted Tulowitzki, plus the Bucs have also been rumored to have interest in free agent Freddy Galvis and the Diamondbacks’ Nick Ahmed.

Reds (Center field, 0.3 bWAR): The outfield as a whole didn’t produce much for the Reds last season, with just 0.5 bWAR at each corner spot to go along with the lack of production in center field.  As we enter 2019, however, Cincinnati could very have an entirely different starting outfield come Opening Day.  The newly-acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp will be sharing time with Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker in right field and left field, while Schebler is currently atop the center field depth chart after Billy Hamilton was non-tendered.  The Reds have been busy this winter but have yet to really expand payroll as promised, so the team still has room to make a big splash in center field — maybe even in the form of A.J. Pollock, as the Reds reportedly have interest in the free agent.  On the trade front, the Reds have also asked the Braves about Ender Inciarte.

Rockies (First base, -0.8 bWAR): After showing interest in a wide array of available first baseman, the Rockies landed their much-needed big bat by signing Daniel Murphy to a two-year deal that contains a mutual option for the 2021 season.  Murphy didn’t play until June 12 due to a recovery from microfracture knee surgery, and after an understandable slow start to get his timing back, he hit .328/.366/.508 over his final 273 plate appearances of the 2018 season.  Now that he’ll be playing in Coors Field and will have an easier defensive assignment as a first baseman rather than at second base, it’s easy to imagine Murphy thriving in Colorado’s lineup.  Of further note, the Rockies were probably the league’s most top-heavy team last season, reaching the NLDS thanks to giant contributions from Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story and the starting rotation and relatively little else around the diamond.  The Rox also received a negative-bWAR score at catcher (-0.3), as well as a cumulative 0.8 bWAR from their entire outfield.  Little has been done to address these areas yet this winter, go GM Jeff Bridich and his front office certainly still have some work to do before Opening Day.

Reds Sign Anthony Bass

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The Reds have reached a minor-league deal with righty Anthony Bass, the hurler himself announced today. Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage had recently tweeted the connection.

Bass, 31, had a nice showing in brief action last season with the Cubs. Over 15 1/3 innings, he allowed just five earned runs while accumulating 14 strikeouts against three walks. He was similarly effective during his 32 Triple-A frames, over which he carried a 3.38 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Bass also drew grounders on more than half the balls put in play against him at both levels.

Of course, Bass’s broader history — including a 4.51 ERA in 299 1/3 total MLB frames — is rather less promising. Still, it seems reasonable to presume that the Reds will give him a reasonable shot in camp at earning a MLB bullpen job. If Bass doesn’t crack the roster, he’ll be a nice depth piece to have on hand. (The opt-out opportunities in his contract, if any, have not been reported.)

Quick Hits: Olney’s Latest, Free Agent Market, Diamondbacks

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It’s been another slow winter for baseball’s veteran free agents, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Only six free agents have secured deals with more than two years fully guaranteed, none of whom have been over the age of 32, and there are over 200 unsigned free agents still seeking employment for the 2019 season. ESPN obtained a memo written by player agent Jeff Berry outlining some ideas on how to improve the troubling conditions that have developed in this labor market. Berry writes, “As advocates, our job is to fight for and protect player rights, and when necessary, try and help create solutions — not pointing fingers of blame and hoping things get better. And I wholeheartedly believe there are viable solutions to the core labor issues facing the game that can be remedied to the benefit of players, clubs and fans.” Take a look at the top remaining free agents available here, or track the market as a whole with MLBTR’s free agent tracker. For now, let’s take a look at a few of the specifics covered in Olney’s article, as well as some news from around the (slow-moving) winter market…

  • Refining or reforming current practices regarding service time manipulation and player arbitration are two of the most-often disputed topics, per Olney, but there are other issues at hand as well, including how some people within the industry are unhappy about the way teams use the disabled list. This issue also encompasses the promotion/demotion process termed “portfolio management,” or the process wherein teams shuffle their rosters for particular series matchups throughout the season. While these in-season roster moves make sense from a strategic baseball standpoint, players lose money as a result, often to no fault of their own. For instance, a reliever whose option has already been used in a season might be vulnerable to demotion if unavailable due to overuse (say, if he pitched in three consecutive days). Even if said player is brought back to the big leagues after a couple of days, he still loses a significant amount of major league pay during that span. Thus, such a player loses money – not despite performing effectively – but because he performed effectively. Obviously, given the complexity of even the single above circumstance, there is no shortage of issues for the players’ union to focus their attentions in advance of December 1, 2021 – the date the current CBA expires. 
  • Turning to rumblings about player movement, it’s unlikely the Arizona Diamondbacks bring A.J. Pollock back to the desert even if his free agency drags on longer than expected. Given the flexibility of their roster, however, the Dbacks have options to replace him, writes the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. The in-house alternatives may not be enough to call off the rebuild, but the number of roster iterations available gives GM Mike Hazen the time to make judicious decisions on the trade market. For example, Ketel Marte could move to center, with his spot at the keystone, then, filled by one of the attainable free agent second baseman on the market (DJ LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie). Alternatively, Eduardo Escobar could fill Marte’s spot at second should the Diamondbacks acquire a new third baseman (Jake Lamb would be expected to handle first, as is probably the case regardless). Given the absolute dearth of starting options available in free agency, if Marte stays at second, a center field replacement would likely come via trade. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to surrender much in the way of prospects at this stage of their rebuild, which makes finding a trade partner tricky, though not impossible. Their best bet might be to target a young veteran who may still have some upside. Specifically, Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals would be an intriguing player to see given 500 at bats, as might Keon Broxton of the Brewers. 

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