The Tigers’ Managerial Search
The Tigers were the first team to cut ties with their manager at season’s end, announcing with less than a week of the regular season to play that Brad Ausmus would not return as the team’s skipper. Ausmus was allowed to finish out the season at the helm — though Ian Kinsler was allowed to manage the team on the final day — but since the announcement, there have been plenty of names flying around in connection with the new job opening.
In an effort to consolidate the myriad reports on Detroit’s managerial vacancy into one place, we’ll track preliminary candidates, those that have interviewed and those that are no longer in the running all in this post and update accordingly as the search progresses.
Will Interview/Have Interviewed
- Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez has also interviewed for the Tigers’ opening, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who also notes that Detroit’s search is down from an initial list of 50 to 10 candidates. Heyman initially identified Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond as a candidate (as noted below), and he now confirms that Redmond has indeed interviewed for the post.
- Ron Gardenhire is on the list of the Tigers’ upcoming interviews and is a “strong candidate,” according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Fenech notes that the Tigers will face some competition, namely from the Red Sox, however. There are those who feel that Avila will ultimately hire a younger manager to handle a younger team, per Fenech, though Fenech also adds that he polled a number of industry contacts that feel Gardenhire is capable of connecting with a young group regardless of age.
- ESPN’s Marly Rivera reports that the Tigers will interview Astros bench coach Alex Cora as part of their first wave of external interviews (Twitter link). Cora is an in-demand managerial candidate, as he’s already been linked to the Mets and Red Sox. An interview doesn’t seem likely to take place while Cora’s Astros are still playing in the postseason, one wouldn’t think.
- MLB.com’s Jason Beck has previously reported that the Tigers will interview Marlins bench coach Fredi Gonzalez and White Sox third base coach Joe McEwing. Gonzalez, of course, has recently served as the Marlins’ manager as well as the manager of the Braves. McEwing doesn’t have big league managerial experience, but he’s come up as a candidate in years past and has been connected to the Mets already as well.
- Fenech reported early this month that the Tigers have already conducted interviews with a trio of in-house candidates: hitting coach Lloyd McClendon, first base coach Omar Vizquel and third base coach Dave Clark. McClendon has had multiple big league stints as a manager, with the Pirates (2001-05) and the Mariners (2014-15).
Preliminary Candidates (Interview Status Still Unknown)
- The Tigers are interested in Red Sox first base coach Ruben Amaro Jr., according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Amaro is obviously best known as the former GM of the Phillies, but he’s interested in managing and now has two years of experience on a big league staff to go along with an understanding of the day-to-day operations of a front office. As Heyman notes, he’s an outside-the-box candidate, but the Tigers are known to be casting a wide net.
- Heyman has also previously reported that the Tigers have interest in Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond. The longtime backup catcher for the Marlins and Twins, Redmond is also a former Marlins manager but has yet to get a second opportunity to manage at the big league level.
- Jon Morosi of MLB.com has previously listed Angels bench coach Dino Ebel and Royals catching instructor Pedro Grifol as managerial possibilities in Detroit. Heyman, meanwhile has previously linked them to Rays third base coach Charlie Montoyo.
Michael Brantley Undergoes Ankle Surgery
The Indians announced on Thursday that outfielder Michael Brantley underwent arthroscopic surgery yesterday to stabilize the ligaments in his ailing right ankle. Brantley is expected to require four to five months of recovery time before he’s cleared to resume baseball activities, per the announcement. The news of surgery comes as a fairly notable surprise, as the Indians had deemed Brantley healthy enough to carry on their postseason roster in the American League Division Series against the Yankees.
The shorter end of the provided timeline would put Brantley on track to be ready for baseball activity just before position players report to Spring Training, though if his recovery extends to the five-month mark or even a bit beyond, he’d only be ready for the tail end of Spring Training.
Brantley’s timeline is of particular note given that the Indians hold a club option over him for the 2018 season. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian points out (via Twitter), Brantley’s third-place finish in the 2014 American League MVP voting boosted the value of that option from $11MM to $12MM, though the $1MM buyout price remains unchanged. That option long appeared a virtual lock to be exercised, but Brantley’s durability issues in recent years will at least somewhat cloud the possibility given the team’s relatively tight payroll capacity. After the season, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters that the team has envisioned Brantley as part of the organization not only in 2018 but beyond (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal).
The 30-year-old Brantley suffered a severe shoulder injury while diving for a ball in left field late in the 2015 season and ultimately required a pair of shoulder surgeries. He was limited to just 11 games and 43 plate appearances in 2016, though he did return with a considerably healthier and more productive campaign in 2017. This past season, Brantley took the field for 90 games and hit .299/.357/.444 with nine homers and 11 steals in 375 plate appearances. His shoulder held up throughout the year, but he still missed nearly half the season due to the ankle issue that necessitated yesterday’s surgical procedure.
Certainly, the upside of a fully healthy Brantley is enormous. The former seventh-round pick broke out as one of baseball’s best pure hitters in 2014-15, and a one-year commitment worth $12MM would represent a clear bargain. However, the Indians already have a bit more than $73MM committed to next year’s payroll plus another roughly $33MM worth of projected arbitration salaries. Adding Brantley’s $12MM to the books would bring next year’s projected payroll to a fairly hefty $118MM before the team even began to address any offseason needs. Cleveland’s payroll this season opened at $124MM and came in around $133MM in total, but the team also had a bit of added revenue from last year’s deep World Series run — a benefit they obviously won’t enjoy this year.
[Related: Cleveland Indians payroll outlook]
Bastian has written that the Indians could explore the possibility of shifting Brantley from the outfield to first base, and doing so would cross off one notable offseason need while also allowing for the possibility of Jason Kipnis playing left field, Bradley Zimmer manning center, Jose Ramirez handling second base and Yandy Diaz slotting in at the hot corner. It would also mean less running and diving for Brantley, which could bode well for the health of both his ankle and his shoulder.
On the other hand, buying out Brantley’s option would leave the Indians with a bit more offseason maneuverability as they look to address potential holes at first base/DH and potentially in the corner outfield and the bullpen. The team has until three days after the conclusion of the World Series to ultimately make a call on Brantley’s option, but that decision certainly looks more complicated in light of a significant operation and a potential five-month recovery period.
Seeking Writers For ProHockeyRumors.com
In June of 2016, we launched Pro Hockey Rumors to cover each and every piece of NHL transaction-related news. Stationed alongside MLB Trade Rumors, Hoops Rumors and Pro Football Rumors, PHR has grown into a formidable force in the hockey news landscape, establishing relationships with players and media members alike. As the 2017-18 season gets underway, we’re looking to bring aboard multiple new writers with strong evening and weekend availability. The positions will pay hourly.
Requirements:
- Ability to work at least ten hours per week covering NHL news, particularly with availability on weekends and between 5-9pm central time Monday through Friday.
- Exceptional knowledge of all 31 NHL teams and their players, with no discernible bias. Knowledge of all transaction-related concepts.
- A high school degree is required, and further education is preferred. Please include your highest completed level of education in your application.
- Writing experience is necessary, and online writing experience is preferred.
- Attention to detail and ability to follow the Trade Rumors style and tone.
- Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news quickly and concisely.
- Ability to use Twitter, Tweetdeck, and an RSS feed reader such as Feedly. In general, you must be able to multi-task.
- If you’re interested, email prohockeyrumorshelp@
gmail.com and explain how you stand out and qualify in a couple of short paragraphs. Be sure to attach your resume to the email. We often receive several hundred applications, so unfortunately we will not be able to reply to each one.
Poll: The Next Red Sox Manager
The Red Sox moved on from manager John Farrell following the team’s exit in the American League Division Series, putting Boston in the hunt for a new skipper for the first time since 2012. The decision wasn’t entirely unexpected — many reports had suggested that Farrell could be on the hot seat if the team endured a second consecutive exit in the Division Series, and Farrell was put in place by former general manager Ben Cherington as opposed to current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.
Dombrowski will now have the opportunity to make his own hire and install a manager of his choosing in the dugout. And although Boston’s managerial post was vacated more recently than the Tigers, Mets or Phillies, it’s seemed as if the Sox are choosing from a more limited field of candidates than the other clubs seeking a new skipper. Reports have indicated that Astros bench coach Alex Cora, Diamondbacks bench coach Ron Gardenhire and recently dismissed Tigers manager Brad Ausmus are the the three likeliest candidates to replace Farrell. Dombrowski did tell reporters yesterday that he’s still deciding whether to interview others, but each of the three apparently leading candidates has reportedly had an interview.
[Related: The Red Sox’ Managerial Search]
Ausmus, of course, is no stranger to Dombrowski after managing the Tigers for four seasons. Dombrowski hired Ausmus while serving as general manager of the Tigers and worked with him until August of 2015 when Dombrowski was dismissed from his post and replaced by longtime assistant GM Al Avila. Ausmus doesn’t have the managerial experience that Gardenhire has, but he’s managed a team more recently and is likely more in tune with analytical data. MLB Network’s Peter Gammons reported that Ausmus also thoroughly impressed the Sox when he interviewed there in 2012 and would’ve been their skipper had they not been able to pry Farrell away from the Blue Jays. He’s also been tied to the Mets’ post.
Gardenhire managed the Twins for 13 seasons, giving Dombrowski an up-close look as arguably his Tigers’ top division rival. Though he’s viewed more as an “old school” baseball mind, Gardenhire is renowned for his ability to connect with players and maintain a clubhouse. He managed the Twins to a winning record over his 13 years at the helm and won the American League Central in six of his first nine seasons. Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press has called him one of the “final three” for the job (via Twitter). Gardenhire is also reportedly a candidate for the Tigers.
Cora, meanwhile, has never managed at the big league level but has managed in winter ball and is Houston skipper A.J. Hinch’s right-hand man. He’s probably the most analytically inclined candidate of the bunch and has been touted as a future big league manager for years now. He’s been popular already, drawing interest from both the Mets and the Tigers in their respective searches for a manager. Evan Drellich of CSN New England has written that Cora is the favorite, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has also suggested as much (on Twitter).
All that said, let’s open this up for debate (link to poll for MLBTR mobile app users)…
Who should the Red Sox hire as their next manager?
-
Alex Cora 54% (5,891)
-
Brad Ausmus 22% (2,372)
-
Ron Gardenhire 18% (1,980)
-
Other (Specify in comments) 7% (716)
Total votes: 10,959
West Notes: LaRussa, Rockies, Beltre
Outgoing Diamondbacks executive Tony La Russa discussed his decision to depart with MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. He says that the club’s baseball decisionmaking is in “great hands” both at the front office and field level, which would be difficult to dispute after a strong season. It’s not yet clear what’s next for the legendary former skipper, though he says he has already been in contact with a few other teams.
Here’s more from out west:
- Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post breaks down the Rockies bullpen options entering the offseason. With Greg Holland, Jake McGee, and mid-season acquisition Pat Neshek all set to hit the open market, there are plenty of questions despite the generally promising performance of the unit in 2017. So long as Colorado is willing to spend near last year’s level (around $130MM), there ought to be some space to fit some reasonably significant salaries to fill out and improve the pen.
- The Rangers dealt away veterans at the 2017 trade deadline, but still don’t appear interested in a full-blown sell-off. Most notably, the team held veteran third baseman Adrian Beltre, who is entering the final season of his contract. GM Jon Daniels says that the club “will be designed with Adrian as our third baseman,” as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to tweet. The Rangers’ head baseball decisionmaker suggested that Beltre and the organization have come to an understanding about the immediate direction, though he also noted that it’s at least theoretically possible the path could change. Beltre again battled through health problems to post an outstanding .312/.383/.532 slash. While he’s owed a hefty $18MM, the contract would still hold quite a lot of appeal to other organizations given Beltre’s sustained excellence. Still, it seems the Rangers will be looking to build around him rather than making a deal, though it remains unclear what kind of capacity the team has for veteran acquisitions.
East Notes: Denbo, Hicks/Ellsbury, Vlad Jr., Red Sox
Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel takes a look at Derek Jeter‘s first hire in Miami: former Yankees executive Gary Denbo. The Marlins‘ new player development and scouting guru is known for working hard to make something out of all of the players in farm system. His attention to detail and willingness to grind could pay dividends for a club that will need to grow quite a lot of talent to make up for what is initially projected to be quite a low payroll.
Here’s more from the eastern divisions:
- Of course, sometimes finding value in players that didn’t quite pan out for other organizations can deliver huge dividends. That has been the case for the Yankees and Aaron Hicks, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Indeed, he seems now to have displaced Jacoby Ellsbury in center — so much so that Sherman expects the Yanks to “tell teams in the offseason to make their best offer on the veteran.” The article goes on to discuss what kind of trade situations might make sense for Ellsbury, who does have quite a bit of salary left to go as well as no-trade protection.
- Top Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is tackling some goals and having fun at the Dominican winter league, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. In particular, the young phenom has been tasked with expanding his range and improving his footwork at the hot corner. It seems that Toronto is interested, too, in exposing Guerrero to the bright lights and relatively high stakes of playing against strong competition in his home nation.
- After interviewing Ron Gardenhire today, the Red Sox are “still deciding” whether to sit down with any other candidates, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski informs Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Alex Cora and Brad Ausmus are the other two names under consideration at present. You can catch up on prior developments in the search right here.
How Can The Nationals Improve Behind The Plate?
Nationals catchers Matt Wieters and Jose Lobaton combined for some highly visible lapses in the team’s cringe-inducing Game 5 NLDS loss. That helped to illuminate a problem that was largely masked as the team coasted to the NL East title after addressing the easier-to-spot problem of late-inning bullpen woes.
Make no mistake about it, though: the Nats suffered throughout the season from the poor work of Wieters and Lobaton. By measure of wins above replacement, the pair cost their team something in the range of one to one-and-a-half victories over the course of the season. It doesn’t take much argument to establish that the Nats’ tandem — along with little-used youngsters Pedro Severino and Raudy Read — made up the worst catching unit in all of baseball in 2017.
It’s plenty arguable that the catching position represents the organization’s biggest need this winter. Adam Eaton will be back in the outfield mix, covering for the loss of Jayson Werth in left while Michael Taylor, Brian Goodwin, and perhaps eventually Victor Robles handle things up the middle. The four infielders are established beyond any doubt. While some pitching additions will surely be considered, it’s also plausible to imagine the club mostly holding pat; remember, mid-season additions Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson are still under contract.
On the face of things, a general path to a solution behind the plate isn’t too hard to decipher. There’s even a clear opening since Lobaton is going to reach the open market and will surely be allowed to depart after a dreadful year at the plate. But it may not be quite so simple as getting a new and better catcher. Let’s take a closer look at the remaining options, assuming Lobaton rides off into the sunset.
Wieters was signed to be a heavily-used regular after late-in-the-offseason negotiations culminated between the team and agent Scott Boras — the influential agent who seems especially to have the ear of Nats’ ownership. Wieters ultimately bumped Derek Norris out of the picture after receiving a $21MM guarantee over two years. He gained the right to an opt-out opportunity after the first season, suggesting that the sides contemplated the possibility of a quality campaign that might set the stage for greater earnings.
Needless to say, things didn’t go as hoped. The former Orioles stalwart did not present any major health problems and appeared in 123 games, but produced only a .225/.288/.344 batting line with ten home runs. Wieters doesn’t run well. Perhaps there’s reason to think Wieters can at least rebound somewhat as a hitter; his .118 isolated slugging mark and 8.3% HR/FB rate were at levels not seen since he first cracked the majors, though that’s also true of his modest 27.4% hard-hit rate in 2017. Of equal concern, though, is Wieters’s glovework. While he is one of those players that carries an aura of veteran reliability, and perhaps is rightly valued for his handling of the staff, he does not excel behind the dish in the ways that are susceptible of measurement. For instance, Wieters rates as one of the game’s least-effective pitch framers and cut down just a quarter of the runners to attempt steals against him in his first season in D.C.
In sum, the Nationals’ 2018 payroll is all but certain to be saddled with a $10.5MM allocation to a catcher that likely won’t be worthy of regular playing time. That’s not to say that Wieters isn’t worthy of a roster spot, but it’s also anyone’s guess as to how things would go if he is bumped into a reserve role. Though Wieters is by all accounts a pro’s pro, he’s also accustomed to handling the bulk of the action. Complicating matters somewhat, the switch-hitting backstop is better against left-handed pitching, which negates his chief advantage at this stage — namely, the fact that he can face left-handed pitching with the platoon advantage.
Perhaps any such concerns with transitioning Wieters into a lesser role wouldn’t be as severe if Severino had shown more this year. The club no doubt hoped the well-regarded defender would stake a claim to a significant MLB role as soon as 2017. Instead, he was limited by injury this year and scuffled to a .248/.297/.342 batting line in his second attempt at Triple-A. While the 24-year-old could yet push his way into the picture, and remains an important depth piece, it’s hard to imagine that he’d be trusted for what should at least be a heavily-used second catcher’s slot on the 2018 ballclub.
So, what options do the Nats have? Purely based upon recent performance, Wieters simply ought to be relegated to reserve duties with the team adding a quality replacement. Depending upon the team’s payroll allotment, there may or may not be much room to add; the org is already staring at something approaching $160MM as a starting point once arb bumps for Anthony Rendon, Tanner Roark, and Taylor are factored in.
But the Nats arguably should at least take a long, hard look at top free agents Jonathan Lucroy and Welington Castillo. (The latter, who replaced Wieters in Baltimore, is likely to decline his player option and hit the open market.) Neither is likely to be prohibitively expensive, though that also reflects the concerns that each brings to the table. I covered Lucroy’s free-agent case in some depth recently. While Castillo was quite productive at the plate in 2017, and has generally been at least an average hitter for his position ever since cracking the majors, he also is a poorly-rated framer that has bounced around the league in recent years despite his solid offensive profile and generally low cost.
The trade market doesn’t necessarily offer much more promise, unfortunately — serving as yet another reminder of how thin the position remains leaguewide. J.T. Realmuto of the Marlins is perhaps the only quality option that might reasonably be available, though he’ll surely come with a huge sticker price. It’s conceivable that veteran Francisco Cervelli could be had, but the Pirates need him and he has been injured. The Phillies could market Cameron Rupp, though it’s far from clear that he’d be the upgrade the Nationals seek. Likewise, taking a chance on the Reds’ Devin Mesoraco wouldn’t deliver much in the way of certainty.
It’s certainly possible that the Nationals will not be able to land a regular option for what’s deemed a palatable price. But even in that case, adding a pure reserve and hoping for the best from Wieters seems ill-advised. Washington might consider setting up more of an even timeshare between Wieters and another veteran. The left-handed-hitting Alex Avila could be an interesting fit; he showed plenty of bat in the first half of the season and would allow Wieters to spend the bulk of his time facing lefty pitching. Miguel Montero is another southpaw-swinging option, though he didn’t exactly distinguish himself at the plate after an inglorious mid-season departure from the Cubs. Among the other open-market options are right-handed hitters Chris Iannetta, Nick Hundley, and Rene Rivera, each of whom will be entering at least his age-34 season.
Ultimately, for a club without any other truly pressing needs, it’s arguable that a bold pursuit of Realmuto is warranted. Harper and Daniel Murphy are entering their final seasons of control, after all, and it goes without saying that there’s a sense of urgency given the team’s postseason heartbreaks. But that might cost an uncomfortable amount of prospect capital (or accepting a large amount of Miami’s unwanted payroll). How do you see things?
How Should The Nationals Address The Catching Situation?
-
Sign or trade for a catcher such as Avila to split time with Wieters. 27% (1,081)
-
Sign Lucroy or Castillo & make Wieters the reserve. 26% (1,046)
-
Keep Wieters as the regular & let Severino compete with a cheap veteran for the backup role. 23% (938)
-
Go for broke in a trade for Realmuto & make Wieters the reserve. 23% (929)
Total votes: 3,994
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Free Agency, Stanton, Tanaka, Upton
Click here to view the transcript for MLBTR Chat With Jason Martinez: October 18, 2017
Dayton Moore Suggests He’s Not Interested In Leaving Royals
Royals GM Dayton Moore has been mentioned repeatedly as a theoretical candidate to join the Braves’ front office. But he largely dismissed any such notion in comments today to MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter link).
Moore, who has run Kansas City’s baseball operations since 2006, said that continuing on in that role is “doing what I’m supposed to be doing.” He also heaped praise upon Royals owner David Glass, saying he “adore[s] Mr. Glass and the opportunity he has given us.”
Needless to say, it doesn’t sound as if Moore has much interest in considering a new opportunity in Atlanta. The Braves are in need of a new GM after John Coppolella was forced to resign amidst an international signing scandal — the full fallout of which remains to be seen.
There were indications that Moore could at least consider the GM position — or, perhaps more likely, a move to replace Braves president of baseball operations John Hart at the apex of the baseball ops department — despite the success he has found with the Royals. (See here and here.) After all, Moore’s ties to the Braves run deep: he broke into pro ball with the organization and ascended to an assistant GM position there before leaving for K.C. And the Royals are entering what looks to be a transition phase after finally reaching the promised land in 2015.
Perhaps there’s still some room for a change of heart after today’s comments. But Moore surely said what he did for a reason — presumably, that ongoing speculation isn’t helpful as the Royals prepare for an important offseason. He was addressing the team’s future today, after all, when he announced that Dale Sveum will serve as bench coach while Mitch Maier will coach first for the organization next year. (Twitter links via Flanagan.)
Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
A disastrous 2017 season could have the Giants looking for some big moves this winter to try and spur a quick return to contention.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Buster Posey, C: $85.6MM through 2021 ($22MM club option for 2022 with $3MM buyout)
- Johnny Cueto, SP: $84MM through 2021 ($22MM club option for 2022 with $5MM buyout — Cueto can opt out of contract and receive buyout within three days after conclusion of 2017 World Series)
- Brandon Belt, 1B: $64MM through 2021
- Brandon Crawford, SS: $60MM through 2021
- Jeff Samardzija, SP: $54MM through 2020
- Mark Melancon, RP: $38MM through 2020 (can opt out of deal after 2018 season)
- Hunter Pence, OF: $18.5MM through 2018
- Denard Span, OF: $9MM through 2018 ($12MM mutual option for 2019 with $4MM buyout)
- Matt Moore, SP: $9MM through 2018 ($10MM club option for 2019 with $750K buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Will Smith (4.155) – $2.5MM
- Cory Gearrin (4.136) – $1.6MM
- Sam Dyson (3.142) – $4.6MM
- Joe Panik (3.100) – $3.5MM
- Tim Federowicz (3.022) – $1.3MM
- Hunter Strickland (2.163) – $1.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Federowicz
Contract Options
- Matt Cain, SP: $21MM club option for 2018, $7.5MM buyout (option will be bought out, with Cain heading into retirement)
- Madison Bumgarner, SP: $12MM club option for 2018 ($1.5MM buyout)
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B: Minimum salary club options for 2018 and 2019 if Sandoval is still on MLB roster at season’s end (the Red Sox will pay the prorated remainder of $41MM owed through 2019)
Free Agents
San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information
After investing heavily in free agent signings and lucrative extensions for homegrown players over the last two offseasons, the Giants watched in dismay as virtually all of those core pieces underachieved in 2017. It all added up to a shocking 64-98 record, the worst performance by a San Francisco team since the 1985 squad lost 100 games.
While it isn’t likely that another Murphy’s Law type of season will happen again, there are enough questions surrounding the club’s veteran core that standing pat isn’t an option. The Giants can be pretty confident that they’ll get more than 111 innings from Madison Bumgarner, though they can hardly be sure that all of Johnny Cueto, Mark Melancon and Brandon Belt will be healthy, or that Brandon Crawford and Matt Moore will both return to form.
Some changes are clearly necessary to upgrade a team that finished near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, including last in homers and OPS and second-to-last in runs and on-base percentage. San Francisco was also one of the league’s worst defensive teams, and recent comments from GM Bobby Evans indicate that the front office is looking to re-establish itself as a pitching-and-defense team first, without selling out that core identity in a pursuit of power hitters.
The outfield is the clearest area of concern, as left field was a revolving door all season and Denard Span and Hunter Pence combined for just 1.9 fWAR as the regulars in center and right field. Defensive metrics haven’t been kind to Span’s center field glovework for years, while Pence’s work in right field has traditionally received above-average UZR/150 grades but below-average marks in terms of Defensive Runs Saved. Since neither player has a strong throwing arm, the Giants are in a tough spot of having two high-priced outfielders best suited for a move to left field.
A free agent like Lorenzo Cain would be a great fit for the Giants’ needs, as the long-time Royal brings a major defensive upgrade to center field and some right-handed balance to the lineup. Even if a big name like Cain is brought in to handle center field, however, simply going with Span and Pence in the corners may not be a recipe for success. The outfield mix could be shaken up entirely with a big trade or two.
As of late August, the Giants were the team with the most interest in Giancarlo Stanton, who is a logical trade candidate for a Marlins team that seems poised for another payroll cut. Stanton has clearly stated that he doesn’t want to be part of another Marlins rebuild, so his no-trade clause probably wouldn’t be an issue, especially since the California native is reportedly open to a move back to the west coast. It also stands to reason that the Giants would ask Miami about Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, with Yelich perhaps being the best fit since he can play center field (even if the defensive metrics weren’t enamored with his glovework in 2017).
All three outfielders would come with big asking prices, and given the Giants’ thin farm system, other teams are better equipped to sway the Marlins with a package of prospects. Stanton may cost the least in terms of players and prospects if a suitor is willing to absorb a significant chunk of the ten years and $295MM remaining on the slugger’s contract (provided Stanton doesn’t opt out after the 2020 season).
The lack of prospects won’t help the Giants in trade talks with the Marlins or other teams with outfielders for sale, and signing Cain or another expensive outfielder in free agency may also be tricky since the Giants have already made a number of long-term commitments. San Francisco has at least $100MM in payroll on the books through the 2020 season, and that isn’t counting the possibility of an extension with Bumgarner. Between guaranteed deals, projected arbitration payouts and the no-brainer pick-up of Bumgarner’s club option, the Giants have roughly $170MM committed to 16 players next year, putting them in danger of surpassing the $197MM luxury tax threshold.
While the Giants have slightly exceeded the tax limit in each of the past two seasons, they’ll face a larger penalty for repeated overages under the new collective bargaining agreement. Like every other team in the game, the Giants also surely want to be under the tax limit to clear their path for next winter and the star-laden 2018-19 free agent class.
(One big salary could still potentially come off the books if Cueto exercises his opt-out clause after the World Series. That said, it’s hard to fathom that Cueto would walk away from a four-year/$84MM guarantee after a season that saw him limited to 147 1/3 IP due to a minor flexor strain and blister issues.)
An existing contract could be moved as part of a trade, either as partial salary relief for someone like Stanton or simply to dump some money on a team willing to absorb a large contract in exchange for some young talent. Complicating this strategy, of course, is that so many of the highest-paid Giants have either full (Melancon, Pence, Crawford, Buster Posey) or partial (Belt, Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija) no-trade clauses, and the club obviously isn’t going to deal cornerstones like Posey or Bumgarner. The likes of Span or Joe Panik could become viable trade candidates almost by default since they’re two of the few notable Giants that can be freely dealt.
Span’s trade value is questionable, with a $9MM salary due in 2018 and so-so numbers last year. If he was traded and the Giants acquired an established center fielder, they could go with internal options in left field (Jarrett Parker, Austin Slater, Mac Williamson and Gorkys Hernandez, plus top prospect Chris Shaw). While Slater and Shaw are promising youngsters, it could be a tough call to entrust the position to unproven players, especially since San Francisco got so little out of its left fielders in 2017.
Moving Panik would open a hole at second base, though there is some question as to whether Panik is a long-term answer for the Giants at the keystone (Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News recently examined the idea of Panik as a trade chip). The second baseman is entering arbitration eligibility for the first time and has posted solid numbers when healthy, though Panik’s history of concussions is a big concern, particularly for a Giants club that has already invested in a first baseman with similar health problems.
Speaking of Belt, he hit well when he was able to play in 2017, but his season was cut short in early August after he suffered the fourth documented concussion of his career. There have been rumblings that manager Bruce Bochy would be open to a change at first base, though Belt’s health issues and the $64MM owed to him through 2021 don’t help his trade value. (Plus, as noted earlier, Belt has partial no-trade protection in the form of a ten-team no-trade list.)
Elsewhere around the infield, Crawford is hoping for a rebound after a down season at the plate (which could possibly have been influenced by much more serious off-the-field concerns). Third base is wide open, with Pablo Sandoval on hand as a veteran option and top prospect Christian Arroyo battling to win the job or at least earn a platoon role.
With this much uncertainty, a multi-positional infielder would be a good fit, and old friend Eduardo Nunez seems like a logical target in free agency. Assuming the Giants don’t make the bold move of shopping Arroyo, Nunez’s versatility doesn’t outright block Arroyo at third base, whereas signing a Mike Moustakas would lock up the position over the long term (and, again, further muddy the luxury tax outlook). A player like Nunez would get the bulk of third base time and, if Arroyo did break out, Nunez could be shifted all around the diamond rather than create a logjam at the position.
Todd Frazier would also make sense as a third base signing, as he wouldn’t require too long a deal and he could also shift over to first in the event that Belt again misses time. (Acquiring an outfielder who can play first base would also help in this regard.) Posey will also get his usual share of time at first in order to keep him fresh, though he is firmly ensconced behind the plate for the foreseeable future. Nick Hundley is a free agent, and there is mutual interest in a reunion between the two sides, so he’s probably the favorite for the backup catching job in 2018 unless he gets offered more playing time elsewhere.
Turning to the rotation, San Francisco has one of baseball’s best one-two punches (when healthy) in Bumgarner and Cueto. Samardzija still hasn’t taken the step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher, though he has been durable and generally solid in his two years with the team. The Giants already exercised their $9MM club option on Moore for next season, hoping the southpaw can return to his 2016 form after a rough 2017 season.
Ty Blach and Chris Stratton are the top choices for the fifth starter’s job, and with such inexperienced options in the mix and Moore coming off such a shaky year, the Giants could stand to bolster the back end of their pitching staff. Like every other team in the game, the Giants have an interest in Shohei Otani, though they’ll be limited to offering him a $300K deal (due to exceeding international signing bonus limits in the past) and they don’t have a DH spot to offer the two-way star.
Barring a win in the Otani sweepstakes, the Giants could turn to the free agent market for veterans willing to sign a short-term deal, perhaps to rebuild their value pitching at AT&T Park. Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, Doug Fister, or Ubaldo Jimenez fit this description, or perhaps Bartolo Colon would like to spend what is probably his final season playing for a potential contender. CC Sabathia is already in the midst of a career renaissance, though the Bay Area native stands out as an intriguing target if he wants to make a homecoming. On the trade front, San Francisco could again look for short-term veteran arms or perhaps go bigger by asking about a controllable young starter (i.e. Julio Teheran, Jake Odorizzi). The latter option, of course, could again by limited by the Giants’ relative lack of available young talent.
The Giants’ bullpen was a problem area last year, thanks in large part to Melancon’s injury-plagued season and Will Smith missing the whole year recovering from Tommy John surgery. The pen will improve simply by dint of those two relievers being back in the mix (Smith is tentatively expected to return in May), joining the right-handed trio of Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland and Sam Dyson atop the bullpen depth chart. I’d expect San Francisco to target at least one more left-handed reliever given Smith’s status. The team could shop on the free-agent market for one southpaw (e.g. Tony Watson, Brian Duensing, Jake McGee) and then turn to internal options (such as Josh Osich, Steven Okert or Blach) for further left-handed depth.
With so much talent on hand and big contracts on the books, the Giants don’t really have any choice but to try and compete in 2018. As the Tigers or the pre-rebuild Phillies could tell you, this can be a dangerous spot for a team, though a teardown would also seem awfully hasty. The Giants’ front office faces a challenge in fixing a roster that they didn’t at all think was broken heading into 2017, and it remains to be seen if the team is just one or two additions away from contending or if a more thorough roster shuffle is coming.