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Padres Plan To Discuss Extension With Mike Shildt

By Steve Adams | October 21, 2024 at 1:53pm CDT

Padres skipper Mike Shildt originally signed a two-year contract when hired to manage the club last offseason, but the club already has interest in keeping him around for a longer period. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller tells the Padres beat that the front office will sit down with Shildt and several members of the coaching staff to see if they can “line up” on a deal to keep them around on longer-term deals (X link via Annie Heilbrunn).

Under the 56-year-old Shildt, the Padres played at a 93-69 pace, good for second in the National League West and a Wild Card berth in the postseason. Shildt’s Padres topped the Braves 2-0 in the first round of postseason play before taking the archrival Dodgers to their limit in a thrilling, back-and-forth five-game National League Division Series. Ultimately, a Friars club that scored 21 runs over the first three games of the series was held scoreless in Games 4 and 5 alike.

Despite that disheartening finish to the season, Shildt’s first year in San Diego has to be considered a success. The Padres’ record improved by 11 games, and San Diego returned to postseason play after missing out on the heels of an 82-80 showing a year prior. As importantly, Shildt quickly won the clubhouse over. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to several Padres veterans late in the season — many of whom have been with the team for multiple prior managers — and each took the opportunity to heap praise onto the environment and culture that Shildt had brought to the clubhouse. Joe Musgrove, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado have all played under three different managers in San Diego (four, in Machado’s case), and all effused praise for the job Shildt has done in his first season at the helm.

Of course, while Shildt was new to the Padres organization this season, this certainly wasn’t his first experience managing. He spent three and a half seasons leading the Cardinals’ dugout, and his dismissal in St. Louis registered as a legitimate shock following the 2021 season. Shildt had originally joined the Cardinals as a scout in 2003 before getting into minor league coaching and managing. In 2017, he was added to the big league staff as a quality control coach. He eventually became the team’s third base coach, then bench coach, and then interim manager following Mike Matheny’s firing. He soon shed the “interim” label and was extended on a three-year deal. He was named National League Manager of the Year in 2019.

In the weeks prior to Shildt’s own firing in St. Louis, the Cardinals had gone on an astonishing 17-game September winning streak to come roaring back into postseason contention. They lost a then one-game Wild Card date with the Dodgers, but Shildt was generally seen as an extension candidate following that 2021 campaign. Instead, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” in cutting ties with Shildt and promoting current skipper Oli Marmol to the post.

Shildt landed on his feet quickly. He took a job in the Commissioner’s Office, working in on-field operations alongside former Marlins general manager Michael Hill. Just six weeks later, he was hired as a player development consultant for the Padres and allowed to work in both roles simultaneously. San Diego had previously interviewed him for their managerial vacancy which wound up going to Bob Melvin, but Shildt received another interview two years later and this time landed the job on his current two-year contract.

Barring an extension, Shildt would head into next year as the proverbial and dreaded “lame duck” manager on an expiring contract, so it’s sensible enough that the Padres — who’ve now employed Shildt in some capacity for three years — are hopeful of solidifying his standing within the organization.

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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

By Anthony Franco | October 21, 2024 at 1:16pm CDT

While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

  • Willy Adames (Brewers)
  • Pete Alonso (Mets)
  • Alex Bregman (Astros)
  • Anthony Santander (Orioles)
  • Juan Soto (Yankees)

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

  • Teoscar Hernández (Dodgers)
  • Christian Walker (Diamondbacks)

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

  • Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)
  • Ha-Seong Kim (Padres)
  • Tyler O’Neill (Red Sox)
  • Jurickson Profar (Padres)
  • Gleyber Torres (Yankees)

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

  • Cody Bellinger
  • Michael Conforto
  • Joc Pederson

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

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Mets Notes: JDM, Quintana, Manaea

By Steve Adams | October 21, 2024 at 11:30am CDT

A season filled with OMGs and Grimace memes came to an end this weekend when the Dodgers toppled the Mets in a 10-5 win that propelled L.A. to a World Series showdown and left the Mets looking ahead to the 2025 campaign. New York’s roster is teeming with veteran free agents, and president of baseball operations David Stearns and his staff will have their work cut out for them in reshaping the roster this offseason. Several outgoing Mets free agents made clear they’d have interest in returning, including some aging vets who are getting into the latter stages of their career.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez joked “pickleball” when asked what the future held for him (video link via SNY). The 37-year-old slugger said first and foremost, his future includes heading home to be with his new daughter, who he has barely seen since she was born in September. Beyond the family time, Martinez made clear that he hopes to continue his playing career but only if teams take the initiative. “I’m not going to come back because I’m begging to come back,” said Martinez. “I’m going to come back because it makes sense. At the end of the day, time is the most valuable thing.”

Presumably, that means there’s a price point at which Martinez won’t feel compelled to commit to further time away from his growing young family. But the slugger also recently appeared on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast and told host Rob Bradford that frustration over a general lack of interest last offseason led him to ponder retirement.

“I felt like it was just an awkward year,” said Martinez (video link). “Here I am, the team’s breaking in five days, and I don’t even have a team yet. Your brain goes into a weird mode, where you’re like ’Am I playing? Am I not? Am I playing? Am I not? Is this it? Am I retired? … We weren’t asking for anything that, at the time, I feel like other players hadn’t gotten.”

Martinez went on to say that he waited all offseason for offers to materialize and “100%” considered retiring, even telling his best friend: “I think this it. I’m staying home. This is dumb. I’m begging for a job, and I had a .900 OPS last year.”

Heading into the 2024-25 offseason, Martinez won’t be coming off the same type of campaign he enjoyed with the Dodgers in 2023. During his lone year in L.A., he bashed 33 homers and hit .271/.321/.572 in 479 plate appearances. Martinez was still a clearly above-average bat this past season, but a sluggish start after signing late (March 23) and a dismal finish to the season left him with a .235/.320/.406 batting line. That was about eight percent better than average, by measure of wRC+ (108).

An optimist could toss out a slow two weeks to start the season and overlook that finish to see that from mid-May through late August, Martinez hit .251/.336/.459 with 16 homers in 387 plate appearances, but teams won’t be so charitable as to just write those struggles off and focus only on his peak in-season production. Martinez did note that he’s encouraged by his batted-ball metrics even though the ultimate production wasn’t in line with his best work, and to his credit, he maintained excellent marks in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He also cut back on his career-worst 2023 strikeout rate and improved his walk rate to its highest level since 2019.

Teammate Jose Quintana was more direct and more straightforward in his intentions to return next year. The 35-year-old lefty told reporters (link via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers): “I’m healthy. I feel good. I want to try one more time to win a championship. This was the closest I’ve been in my career. One day I’m going to get the opportunity.”

Quintana, 36 in January, pitched 170 1/3 innings of 3.75 ERA ball for the Mets in 2024 — the second season of a two-year, $26MM free agent deal. His 18.8% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate don’t necessarily support that level of success, but Quintana was a reliable source of innings and has a lengthy track record of quality rotation work in the majors. Starting pitching is always in demand, and he has a good chance at commanding another eight-figure salary on a one-year deal — if not potential to find a similar two-year deal to the one he just completed.

Age considerations aren’t as prominent for 32-year-old Sean Manaea, who’s all but a lock to decline a $13.5MM player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. Manaea has signed back-to-back “prove it” deals, so to speak, signing consecutive two-year deals with opt-out opportunities. He opted out of his deal with the Giants following the 2023 season, will opt out of his Mets deal next month, and is now finally in position to command the type of lengthier multi-year deal that’s eluded him to this point in free agency. The Mets will very likely make him a qualifying offer, but even with draft compensation attached to his name, Manaea could command a three-year pact this time around.

The left-hander pitched a career-high 181 2/3 innings, plus another 19 in the postseason. His regular season ended with a 3.47 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. He was hit hard in his final start — the one that ended the Mets’ season — but held opponents to five runs in 17 innings across his first three postseason starts (2.65 ERA).

Time will tell whether Manaea is back in New York, but the southpaw emphasized how much he loved his time with the organization and called the 2024 campaign the best season of his career (link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). “I love my time here,” said Manaea. “I love New York. I love the organization. I love all the people here. Definitely give it a couple of days, let the body rest and then we’ll go from there.”

In addition to the trio of Martinez, Manaea and Quintana, the Mets will also see Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias, Drew Smith and Ryne Stanek all become free agents after the World Series.

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Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

By Darragh McDonald | October 21, 2024 at 9:32am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 World Series matchup is now set, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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The Opener: Freeman, Front Office Hires, Mets

By Nick Deeds | October 21, 2024 at 8:35am CDT

With the World Series match up now set in stone, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Freeman nursing ankle injury:

Star first baseman Freddie Freeman was not in the Dodgers’ lineup for the club’s series-clinching win against the Mets last night as he continues to struggle with a sprained ankle that’s limited his availability all throughout the postseason. Even when he’s been healthy enough to take the field, Freeman has looked nothing like himself at the plate with a paltry .219/.242/.219 slash line in the postseason, including a .167/.211/.167 slash line during the NLCS. As Freeman looks to rest up over the next four days before World Series rosters are due, a major question figures to face both him and the Dodgers: is he healthy enough to participate, or would the club be better served using his roster spot another way?

2. Are any front office hires on the horizon?

As we enter a brief stretch of days without baseball before the World Series, it shouldn’t be a surprise if teams begin to make announcements (which are often held back to accommodate a focus on the postseason) regarding some personnel decisions this week. There’s been quite a bit of buzz regarding a handful of potential front office hires in recent days, in particular. The Red Sox appear to be on the cusp of hiring another assistant GM, which could be coupled with them promoting internally for their currently vacant GM role. Additionally, the Giants’ search for a GM to serve as a second-in-command to newly-minted president of baseball operations Buster Posey figures to continue in full force this week. The field of potential candidates still appears to be expansive, though one name pulled himself from consideration over the weekend.

3. Mets head into the offseason:

After their club’s run to the NLCS, Mets brass will have little opportunity to celebrate as they turn their attention toward an offseason where a massive number of their current players are slated for free agency. That group is led, of course, by longtime first baseman Pete Alonso. But other key players who are ticketed for free agency this winter include J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea (who has an opt-out in his deal he’ll surely exercise), Jose Iglesias, Jesse Winker, and Harrison Bader. Under the ownership of Steve Cohen, the Mets have run top-of-the-line payrolls and shown a willingness to sign players even with free agency just around the corner, as they did with Edwin Diaz during the 2022-23 offseason. With more than half a dozen key players headed to free agency this winter, could the club make another surprise preemptive strike?

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Poll: Who Wins The World Series?

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2024 at 10:55pm CDT

The most common rivalry in World Series history is being renewed for the first time since 1981, as the Dodgers and Yankees will meet for a record 12th time in the Fall Classic.  New York holds an 8-3 lead in the previous matchups, which included such iconic baseball moments as Jackie Robinson’s steal of home, Don Larsen’s perfect game, Reggie Jackson’s three-homer performance, and many more.

Now, a modern set of superstar players will square off.  Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Teoscar Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be among those trying to win their first World Series rings, while the likes of Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are looking to add to their already-storied October legacies.

The L.A. lineup was simply too much for the Mets in the NLCS, as the Dodgers scored 46 runs over the six games.  While the Dodgers’ reliever-heavy pitching attack is still trying to cover innings amidst a lot of injuries to regular starters, the team is perhaps just pitching too well to really call it a “patchwork” staff any more — Los Angeles has recorded four shutouts in its last eight playoff games.

The New York offense was also too much for the Guardians in the ALCS, with Stanton and Soto in particular leading the way with a combined seven homers and 13 RBI over the five-game series.  Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt have also formed a powerful three-man front in the rotation, and Luke Weaver’s late-season emergence as the Yankees’ closer has continued into a largely dominant postseason.

The Yankees are looking to add to their record total of 27 championships, though they are in a relative drought by the franchise’s lofty standards.  This is only the second time in 21 seasons that New York has taken part in the World Series, with the only other appearance in that span coming in 2009 when the Yankees defeated the Phillies.  The Dodgers have “only” seven titles to show from their 22 trips to the World Series, but they have the most recent victory, capturing the 2020 Series that followed the pandemic-shortened regular season.

Since the Dodgers won 98 regular-season games to the Yankees’ 94 wins, Los Angeles holds the home-field advantage, so the World Series is set to begin on Friday at Dodger Stadium.  Just one question remains….what’s your prediction?

(poll link for app users)

World Series result?
Dodgers in six 33.21% (5,730 votes)
Yankees in six 28.51% (4,919 votes)
Dodgers in seven 12.07% (2,082 votes)
Yankees in seven 11.52% (1,987 votes)
Dodgers in five 6.13% (1,058 votes)
Yankees in five 5.36% (925 votes)
Dodgers in four 1.80% (310 votes)
Yankees in four 1.41% (243 votes)
Total Votes: 17,254
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Red Sox Hire Taylor Smith From Rays For Possible AGM Role

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2024 at 9:23pm CDT

The Red Sox are nearing a deal to hire Taylor Smith for an unspecified analytics-based role in the club’s front office, according to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo.  Smith could be joining the ranks as an assistant general manager, which would presumably also come with some type of VP title like Boston’s other four assistant GMs under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

Smith had been working with the Rays as Tampa Bay’s director of predictive modeling.  He has been with the organization since graduating from the University of Georgia in 2018, and Smith was initially hired as an analyst in Tampa’s research and development team.  He’ll now head to a larger role in Boston, becoming the latest in a seemingly endless line of Rays staffers hired by other teams to try and learn from Tampa Bay’s consistent success in player development.

As McAdam wrote in another piece earlier this week, assistant GM Mike Groopman had been considered the “de facto overseer” of Boston’s analytics operations, but Groopman was being shifted into another role “with more of a focus on player acquisition.”  It would seem that Smith will now be filling the gap left behind by Groopman’s role change, and it remains to be seen some more shuffling could be on the way.

Paul Toboni, another assistant GM, has been rumored to be the top in-house name to become Breslow’s official top lieutenant as Boston’s general manager, so if Toboni is promoted, the Red Sox would still have four AGMs (Smith, Groopman, Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero) in place.  McAdam suggests that promoting Toboni might also be a way of keeping him within the organization, and away from GM vacancies with the Giants and Mets.  There are some links between Toboni and other those jobs, as McAdam writes that Toboni is from the Bay Area, and he previously worked with Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns in the Brewers’ front office.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2024 at 8:39pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

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MLBTR Chats

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Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualified Free Agent

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2024 at 6:01pm CDT

Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $21.05MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2025 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded, as we saw last winter when the Orioles included their CBR-A pick to the Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes trade package.

It is relatively rare to see teams from this group splurge on a big-ticket free agent, though Baltimore is expected to increase spending under new owner David Rubenstein.  The Tigers also have plenty of payroll space and could look to build more aggressively around their young core, after Detroit unexpectedly made a run to the ALDS this season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2025 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The White Sox and now the Cardinals are both rebuilding.  The Padres can never be ruled out of making a splashy signing, but that seems unlikely given how the team has a lot of its own impending free agents to address, plus San Diego made a point of getting under the luxury tax threshold last offseason.  Angels owner Arte Moreno has said his club plans to contend in 2025 and the payroll will go up, though that might not manifest itself in the form of signing a qualified free agent, given how often the Halos have been burned on such signings in the past.

Washington and Boston are both borderline candidates for a big free agent signing.  The Nats are still technically in rebuild mode themselves, but could decide that the time is right to add some major veteran help to an intriguing mix of younger players.  The Red Sox have generally eschewed pursuits of pricey free agents in recent years, though since they haven’t had a winning season since 2021, ownership might be again willing to be more aggressive in shopping at the high end of the market.

Team In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Jays and Cubs managed to sneak under the $237MM tax threshold.  Roster Resource has both teams slightly above the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Cubs slightly over and the Blue Jays slightly under, so given how narrow the margins are, we’ll wait until the league issues its numbers before putting the two clubs in either the previous category or the next category.

Needless to say, both clubs are hoping for a reset on their luxury tax status, and lesser penalties for signing QO-rejecting free agents.  The Jays and Cubs are also two of the teams facing the most pressure to win in 2025, and thus could be more open to making a big signing to help turn things around.  If MLB’s calculations reveal that Toronto and Chicago did exceed the threshold this year, they’ll join the next group of…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Astros GM Dana Brown has said his team “may have to get a little bit creative” with their spending given how many big contracts are already on the books.  The same could be said for the Phillies and Braves as well, but it is also easy to see both teams remaining aggressive after falling short in the playoffs.  The Rangers have a lot of money coming off the books but, given their uncertain broadcast revenue situation, could spend but still make a point of ducking back under the luxury tax line.  San Francisco will be an intriguing team to watch, now that Buster Posey is running the front office and how the Giants already spent big to keep a pending free agent in the fold by extending Matt Chapman.

Since re-signing Juan Soto or re-signing Teoscar Hernandez wouldn’t cost anything in QO penalties, keeping those sluggers is likely the top priority for the Yankees and Dodgers, with other free agents perhaps as backup plans if Soto or Hernandez signed elsewhere.  The Mets were relatively quiet in David Stearns’ first winter as president of baseball operations, some more big spending might be in the works if owner Steve Cohen wants to build on the club’s playoff run.

All this being said, the higher penalties for CBT payors can be deterrents to spending on qualified free agents in particular.  This doesn’t mean the Yankees wouldn’t look to retain Soto or anything, but teams might prefer to make their big upgrades through trades, or perhaps with free agents who won’t have a QO attached to their services.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

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Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2024 at 5:00pm CDT

The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $21.05MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2024 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft.  (For instance, the Twins received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft when the Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract last winter.)  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  The 2024 draft didn’t have of these latter selections, but in 2023, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.

The Brewers will surely issue Willy Adames a qualifying offer, and the Orioles are just as certain locks to extend QOs to both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander.  Christian Walker also seems pretty likely to receive a QO from the Diamondbacks.  Michael Wacha is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2025 and re-enter the free agency market, and thus the Royals could well decide to issue a qualifying offer to the veteran righty.  Nick Martinez is a borderline candidate for a QO, just because $21.05MM is a steep price tag for a lower-payroll team like the Reds to give to a pitcher who might be best utilized as a swingman.  Martinez is another player facing a decision on a player option, as he can opt out and leave $12MM on the table to again pursue free agency.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).  The Angels qualified for this bracket in 2023 by just barely squeezing under the tax line, thus enabling the team to receive the 74th overall pick as compensation when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

This year’s free agent class offers a few borderline QO candidates from these six teams.  Boston’s Tyler O’Neill and San Diego’s Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim could conceivably get qualifying offers, though the teams could be weighing the pros and cons right up to the QO deadline.  In Kim’s case, the Padres will want all the information they can get about how the shortstop is faring in the early stages of his recovery from shoulder surgery.

Teams In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs

It should be noted that these lists of teams and their Competitive Balance Tax status won’t be finalized until the league releases its official numbers in December.  It usually isn’t too difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $237MM tax threshold, and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season.  MLB’s internal calculations could differ, however, or factor in some salary data that isn’t publicly known, so we won’t know for a while yet if Toronto and/or Chicago are tax payors or not.

The Cubs are just barely past the $237MM tax line in the view of both public websites — RosterResource has their 2024 tax number at slightly above $238.4MM and Cot’s has an even closer call of $237.2MM.  The two sites split when it comes to the Blue Jays, as RR has them over the threshold at roughly $240.4MM, while Cot’s has the Jays under the threshold at around $234.98MM.

While this tax status may impact whether or not the Cubs and Blue Jays will pursue any QO-rejecting free agents, it’s a bit of a moot point here, as neither club has any free agents who seem like viable candidates for a qualifying offer.  If Cody Bellinger exercises his opt-out clause, Chicago can’t issue him a QO since Bellinger already received one in the past.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2025 draft.  In the 2024 draft, these were the 134th, 135th, and 136th overall picks.

Juan Soto (Yankees), Alex Bregman (Astros), Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers), Max Fried (Braves), and Pete Alonso (Mets) are all locks to receive qualifying offers.  The Mets could also weigh offers for Sean Manaea or Luis Severino, with Manaea seen as very likely to opt out of the final year of his contract with New York.

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