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Avisail Garcia

Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade

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Earlier this week, Mark Polishuk examined the potential trade market for Jose Abreu. Another White Sox player who’s likely to receive calls this offseason is right fielder Avisail Garcia, who is coming off a 4.2 fWAR season and is signed through 2019.

Prior to 2017, Fangraphs rated Garcia below replacement level for his career. But last offseason, the Venezuelan native shed some weight and got off to a hot start in April. He continued to crush the ball throughout the first half en route to his first All-Star selection. Although Garcia had a rough July, he finished the season strong, resulting in a .330/.380/.506 batting line. That performance was good for a 137 wRC+, which tied Justin Upton for the 22nd-best mark in all of baseball.

During a season’s end press conference, White Sox GM Rick Hahn admitted that the team is unlikely to win any time soon. “Even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us,” Hahn told reporters. This would make Garcia a prime candidate to move for young talent, especially coming off a career year.

The process of putting an approximate trade value on Garcia, however, is incredibly complicated. Unlike teammate Abreu, the outfielder doesn’t have a long track record of success, and it’s not certain he’ll be able to muster something resembling his 2017 production in future years.

One could point to a change in batted ball profile as an indicator that this past year’s success is sustainable. Garcia improved his hard contact and medium contact rates by small margins over his 2016 figures, in addition to increasing his fly ball rate by four percentage points. The most dramatic change was probably his pull rate; Garcia pulled the ball 25% more often this past season than he did the year before. All told, he ranked 53rd in baseball in hard contact rate (35.3%), and 36th in average exit velocity (90.1 MPH).

Of course, those improvements don’t entirely justify an 83-point jump in batting average on balls in play. His .392 BABIP led all of baseball by a large margin, topping second-place Charlie Blackmon’s figure by a 21-point margin. That number is likely to regress significantly, which makes it tough to buy Garcia a legitimate .300 hitter.

That being said, Garcia’s contract will certainly have some surplus value in the eyes of rival teams. He may not have the reputation necessary to bring back a truly elite minor-leaguer, but it’s not hard to imagine some team forking over a top-100 or even top-50 prospect in hopes that Garcia can be a 3-win player for them for each of the next two seasons. When looking at potential suitors, it’s probably best to examine those teams for whom he would provide an obvious upgrade even if he were to regress a bit.

The Blue Jays have the resources to swing a deal and a need in the outfield, but might prefer to find another left-handed option. It also might not make much sense to trade for Garcia when Anthony Alford will probably debut at some point in 2017.

The Rays could use a righty-hitting outfielder, and they have a number of prospects in a more appropriate range to headline a deal for Garcia. Making such a trade would be a more realistic alternative to spending money on a right-handed outfielder in free agency, as Tampa Bay obviously isn’t known for their ability to spend.

Although their outfield is fairly crowded already, the Indians saw right-handed-hitting Austin Jackson reach free agency this offseason. With questions surrounding the health of Brandon Guyer, the Tribe would probably be well-served to add another righty option to their outfield group. They won’t be inclined to give up Francisco Mejia or Triston McKenzie, but they do have a number of intriguing upside youngsters; they might be able to lure Garcia away from their division rivals with some combination of those players.

The Rockies seem like a really good match on paper; they’re in need of an outfielder who bats from the right side, and have prospects they could afford to give up if they believed in the new version of Garcia.

The Diamondbacks seem like the best match to me. They have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole to fill in the outfield, and they’re ready to push for contention again in 2018. With Pavin Smith and Jon Duplantier at least a full year away from contributing, Arizona could opt to trade one of them as a cheaper alternative to the nine-figure contract Martinez would require in order to return. Because he’s such a defensive liability, Martinez actually finished 2017 with a lower fWAR than Garcia, who played roughly average defense for Chicago. That’s obviously not to say that Garcia should be the more coveted player, but he’s definitely got his pros as an alternative.

Other options that make some level of sense include the Giants and Rangers. But the conundrum here is that it’s hard to predict exactly how teams will value Garcia, including the White Sox themselves. It’s not often that career sub-replacement outfielders suddenly become All-Stars, so it will be interesting to track rumors surrounding Avi this offseason and see what develops.

AL West Notes: Maxwell, Avisail, Healy Trade, Rangers, Astros

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Despite recent allegations of aggravated assault and disorderly conduct, Bruce Maxwell is still viewed by the Athletics as their catcher next season, GM David Forst told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle at this week’s GM Meetings. “We’ll let the criminal proceedings play out,” said Forst, “But from a baseball standpoint, I expect Bruce to be our catcher next year.” Maxwell has already plead not guilty to the charges brought forth against him after he allegedly waved a gun in the face of a Postmates delivery employee last month. The Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reported earlier this week that there’s no trial date yet, but a hearing wouldn’t occur until early 2018.

Even without Maxwell’s off-the-field issues, though, catcher would seem to be a potential area for improvement for the Athletics. Maxwell will turn 27 in a month, has batted just .251/.331/.354 in 354 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons and has thrown out a respectable but unspectacular 25 percent of opposing base thieves in his big league career. Baseball Prospectus rated him as an excellent pitch framer coming up through the minors, though he’s yet to post quality marks with the A’s.

More from the AL West…

  • Within that same piece, Shea also reports that the A’s have some interest in White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia. Oakland is known to be on the lookout for a right-handed-hitting outfielder that can play left field now that the trade of Ryon Healy has opened the door for Khris Davis to serve as the DH. While Garcia, 26, checks some boxes for Oakland, however, he’s not a perfect fit; the young slugger is only controlled for another two seasons, making him more of a mid-term play than a long-term asset. Beyond that, he’s only played 118 innings in left field as a big leaguer, and his defensive ratings in right field haven’t been positive on the whole (though they’ve improved dramatically in the past two seasons). The Sox will be open to moving Garcia, though, who figures to be one of many options Oakland pursues this winter.
  • Forst told reporters following last night’s Healy trade that the Mariners first contacted the Athletics about Healy “right after” the regular season ended (link via MLB.com’s Jane Lee). The two sides talked on and off over the past month, and Forst notes that right-hander Emilio Pagan, one of two players Oakland received in the deal, is someone they’ve tried to acquire from the Mariners in the past. “Once it was clear [Pagan] could be part of this deal, then we spent the last week or so trying to work it out,” said Forst. Lee notes that the A’s will continue to seek bullpen help and could place an emphasis on finding a left-handed reliever.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto also spoke with reporters following last night’s trade and firmly stated that Healy is expected to be the team’s regular first baseman (link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). “We are planning on Ryon playing first base in an every-day or near-every-day role or basis,” said Dipoto shortly after praising Healy’s all-fields power. “…He’s performed quite well against left-hand pitching. You saw a little bit of a dip against righties. But I think that’s the league adjusting to Ryon and now is his chance to adjust back.” Divish also has quotes from Healy about being traded and further quotes from Dipoto on the difficulty of informing Pagan that he’d been dealt.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels said at the GM Meetings that his team is approaching the 2018 season with the mindset that Delino DeShields Jr. will be the center fielder, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. That doesn’t entirely rule out the possibility of signing a center fielder, as Daniels stated that DeShields could end up in left if the team lands a center fielder “that makes us better as a club.” It does, however, suggest that center field may not be a top priority for Texas this winter. Daniels praised DeShields for his defensive improvements in center over the past couple of seasons, reminding that he’s a converted second baseman who has been learning on the job.
  • Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle runs down some of the decisions the Astros will face as they look to set their roster in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, noting that outfield prospect Ramon Laureano could prove one of the most difficult calls to make. The 23-year-old Laureano elevated his prospect stock with a huge 2016 campaign (.319/.428/.528 between Class-A Advanced and Double-A) but faltered significantly in his first full season in Double-A. Kaplan notes that lefty Cionel Perez “is certain to be protected” and also lists some other candidates that could land on the 40-man roster by next Monday’s deadline.

GM Meetings Notes: The American League Central

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Royals GM Dayton Moore did not strike a particularly optimistic tone yesterday with regard to the the organization’s major free agents, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star reports on Twitter. “We’ll see what the market dictates, we’ll stay engaged with our current free agents,” said Moore. “But I’m not sure if it’s at the levels that everyone’s talking about. It may be extra challenging for us.” The Kansas City organization will get a chance to begin figuring out just how much it’ll cost to keep Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas when it sits down today with agent Scott Boras, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports.

  • Moore also discussed the fact that he’ll stay with the Royals after owner David Glass declined to allow him to interview with the Braves, as Dodd further writes. “I simply left that in Mr. Glass’s hands,” said Moore. “If he wanted to grant permission, then that would signal to me that he didn’t want me here. If he denied permission, that would tell me he wants me here.” That’s certainly an interesting perspective. Moore did emphasize, too, that he’s happy both to remain in charge of the Royals’ baseball ops and to put the speculation behind him. He is under contract in Kansas City through the 2020 campaign, Dodd further reports, and it seems as if there’s good cause to expect the relationship to continue for the foreseeable future.
  • Unsurprisingly, GM Rick Hahn suggests the White Sox are open to trading their few established veteran hitters this winter, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. With the club still “focused on the long-term,” says Hahn, it will entertain offers on first baseman Jose Abreu and outfielder Avisail Garcia. Hahn explained: “At some point, not necessarily this offseason, we have to make the decision: Are we best served by extending them through what we project to be the bulk of our (competitive) window, or are we better off making a move like some of the others we’ve made and trying to reinforce the future with prospects?'” It’ll be interesting to see what kinds of offers are dangled for both players and whether Chicago truly seeks to initiate extension talks to create an alternative path.
  • The Tigers are diving right into talks on several players, GM Al Avila told reporters including Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter). Avila said he has already discussed a few of the team’s players with rival organizations, including veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler. Detroit is also preparing to make some difficult 40-man roster decisions, Woodberry reports. Indeed, Avila says the process of whittling the players to protect from the Rule 5 draft has been “excruciating and painful.”
  • The Twins front office duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine faces quite a different situation in their second offseason with the franchise, as Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. Indeed, the team’s reported interest in some of the best free agent pitching serves to highlight the opportunities and expectations facing the organization this winter.

AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Kintzler, White Sox

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The results of this year’s Gold Glove Awards voting came in earlier this week, and in the American League it was Brian Dozier taking home his first career Gold Glove at second base. Dozier took home a standard $25K bonus for that distinction, but the more notable financial component of the award is that Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler did not take home the $1MM bonus he’d have received for capturing a second Gold Glove honor. Kinsler’s 2017 option vested based on plate appearances back in September, but his salary would’ve risen from $11MM to $12MM had he landed the extra hardware. The $1MM difference in his salary won’t have much of an impact on his overall trade stock, but it’s still of minor note for both the Tigers and interested parties as Detroit explores trade scenarios for its longtime second baseman this winter.

More from the AL Central…

  • The Twins have already reached out to right-hander Brandon Kintzler about a possible reunion this winter, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Minnesota is one of a “handful” of teams to show early interest in the 33-year-old Kintzler, per Berardino, who also notes that the Nationals have interest in retaining the sinkerball specialist. Kintzler has turned in an ERA just over 3.00 in the past two seasons despite averaging scarcely better than five strikeouts per nine innings, thanks largely to his excellent control, lofty ground-ball rates and a dearth of hard contact allowed.
  • Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times takes a look at the difficult decisions facing White Sox GM Rick Hahn and his staff this offseason as they determine what to do with Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia. Both are controlled through the 2019 season and are affordable for the Sox (who have extremely limited payroll commitments as they rebuild), but Van Schouwen notes that the team views 2020 as a more reasonable target date for a return to prominence in the AL Central. “Any player who isn’t controllable through the bulk of our window, we have to make an assessment,” Hahn tells Van Schouwen.
  • Also of note, Van Schouwen writes that the Sox will likely field a payroll in the vicinity of $75MM next year. Including arbitration projections from MLBTR, the Sox are projected to pay roughly $50MM to a dozen players next season. They’ll need another 13 players at or near the league minimum to round out the roster, which would take them just north of $57MM. That’d leave around $18MM to add some reclamation projects and/or veteran stopgaps in the rotation or bullpen if the Sox find opportunities to their liking. A trade of Abreu (projected at $17.9MM) or Garcia ($6.7MM) would obviously alter their capacity for additions.

Rick Hahn On Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Offseason

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As the White Sox prepare for the second season of a dramatic rebuilding of the franchise, the biggest questions facing general manager Rick Hahn and his front-office team will be the futures of Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia. As I noted last week when taking a look at some of the upcoming offseason needs for the Sox, both are controlled only through 2019, making it questionable as to whether they’ll be part of the next contending team or whether either is more of a trade piece than a building block. Abreu will earn a raise on this year’s $10.825MM in arbitration this offseason, while Garcia will get a bump on his own $3MM salary.

Hahn address both players’ futures at an end-of-season press conference yesterday, expanding a bit on the difficult nature of the decision at hand. Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago and Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune were among the reporters on hand for Hahn’s media address and has numerous quotes from the Chicago exec as well as from Abreu himself. Abreu hasn’t been shy about his desire to stick with the Sox through their rebuild in the past, and he was as blunt as ever yesterday in telling Hayes that he hopes to spend his entire career in a White Sox uniform. Whether that happens is largely up to Hahn and his staff, and the decision unsurprisingly isn’t an easy one for that group.

“Both Avi and Abreu are under control for the next two years, through 2019,” said Hahn (via Hayes). “I think even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us, so obviously with any player who isn’t controllable through the bulk of that window, we have to make an assessment.”

Hahn spoke about the possibility of extending one or both players but also the chance of marketing each in trades this offseason as a means of further amassing young talent with timelines that fall more into the 2020 and beyond target to which he alluded above.

“They’re both special cases, and there are very strong arguments for them playing roles in 2020 and beyond,” he continued, going on to stress the value they place on Abreu’s on-field contributions as well as his role as the team’s clubhouse leader. Garcia “is still very young in this game” said Hahn, adding that there’s some reason to believe that his 2017 breakout could very well become “the norm” for the 26-year-old moving forward.

Certainly, the Sox don’t have to make a definitive call on either player this winter. Hahn points to the team’s handling of Jose Quintana last offseason as an example of a player’s market not coming together in the winter but more strongly forming at the July non-waiver deadline.

“It’s not me just dancing around or being cute,” said Hahn. “There isn’t a firm answer right now. We don’t know what the options are. One of them conceivably is extending, and we have to wait and see what that cost entails.”

One thing that does seem clear, especially in the wake of a shoulder operation that could sideline Carlos Rodon for as much as the first two months of the 2018 season, is that the Sox will need some veteran rotation reinforcements. Chicago also decimated its Major League bullpen on the trade market, and while they’ve received solid contributions from unexpected sources such as Gregory Infante and Juan Minaya, they’ll still have some work to do on that front.

“It’s going to be about being opportunistic,” Hahn said of his offseason search for bullpen arms (via Kane), “and perhaps there’s another arm to fill into the rotation that makes some sense for us.” Hahn spoke specifically about veteran additions being able to provide some “cushion” to allow younger arms to further develop. While Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito and possibly Carson Fulmer could all be in the rotation early next year, the Sox seemingly could benefit from another veteran to pair with James Shields as they wait for Michael Kopech, Spencer Adams, Alec Hansen and/or Tyler Danish to prove ready for an extended look at the big league level.

There are quite a few more quotes from Hahn within each column from Hayes and Kane, so readers are encouraged to check out each in full.

AL Central Notes: Kinsler, Royals, Twins, Avisail

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Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that he intends to sit down the general manager Al Avila in the next couple of days to discuss his future with the team (all Twitter links). The 35-year-old Kinsler says his willingness to waive his partial no-trade clause will be dependent on what Avila tells about the team’s planned offseason direction, as a return to the postseason is his priority. The Tigers appear to be dead-set on rebuilding, having traded the likes of Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila and Cameron Maybin in the past 10 months. Kinsler, then, stands out as one of the most obvious trade candidates of the offseason as he heads into the final year of his contract.

More from the American League Central…

  • Royals general manager Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he’s prepared for many to second-guess the front office’s decision not to sell off short-term pieces at the trade deadline. “It’s a fair question,” said Moore, though he pointed to the Royals’ July surge as rationale for the moves. Indeed, as Flanagan points out, Kansas City was 2.5 games out of the division lead and was in possession of a Wild Card spot on July 30. Moore tells Flanagan that following the current season, the Royals will “do everything we can” to compete for wins in 2018 and for player acquisitions in the offseason. That doesn’t sound like the Royals are planning on any sort of rebuild with much of its core hitting the open market, though Moore likely wouldn’t tip his hand at this point even if that were the direction in which the Royals are leaning.
  • With the Twins in the thick of a Wild Card race, Michael Rand of the Minneapolis Star Tribune takes a look at the first season of work from new front-office tandem Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Rand notes that the team’s show of faith in in-house young talent like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Jose Berrios has proven to be shrewd, as as their emphasis on improving catcher defense and adding high-character veterans. The Twins, however, failed to sufficiently address the bullpen despite it being a clear point of need this winter, Rand opines, and the decision to tender lefty Hector Santiago for $8MM looks especially questionable with the benefit of hindsight.
  • White Sox outfielder/DH Avisail Garcia tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he hopes to remain with the club even through the rebuilding phase. The 26-year-old can become a free agent following the 2019 season and is in the midst of a breakout campaign, however, making him a fairly logical offseason trade candidate. Van Schouwen also spoke with ChiSox hitting coach Todd Steverson about Garcia’s improvements this season, getting his take on what has helped Garcia break out. Through 519 plate appearances, Garcia is hitting .333/.382/.504 with 17 homers, 23 doubles and four triples.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Blue Jays, White Sox, Brewers, Gray

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Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada drew “virtually no interest” in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. Estrada has been at top form since then, however, making it likely someone will claim the impending free agent on revocable waivers this month, a rival executive told Rosenthal (Twitter link). The Jays placed Estrada on waivers Friday, per Rosenthal, though he adds that they’re not bent on trading the 34-year-old unless a solid offer comes along. Because Toronto still has a shred of playoff hope and is averaging almost 40,000 fans per home game, it’s not ready to wave the white flag.

More from Rosenthal:

  • The rebuilding White Sox are still deciding on the futures of first baseman Jose Abreu and outfielder Avisail Garcia, says Rosenthal. As a bat-first type who doesn’t play a premium position and will turn 31 in January, Abreu would be the harder of the two to trade, observes Rosenthal, who also points out that he’s not cheap ($11MM salary in 2017 with two arbitration trips left). With that in mind, the White Sox could end up keeping the veteran around as a lineup anchor and a mentor to their younger players, including fellow Cubans Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert. Garcia, meanwhile, is amid a career year and still fairly young (26), so he could be an extension candidate if the White Sox don’t “trade him at peak value,” suggests Rosenthal. Garcia’s making a reasonable $3MM this season and, like Abreu, has two arb-eligible years remaining.
  • Contrary to a report last month, the Brewers’ unwillingness to part with high-end outfield prospect Lewis Brinson did not kill their chances of landing righty Sonny Gray from the Athletics, according to Rosenthal. The A’s would have accepted a package of other prospects from the Brewers’ talented farm system, relays Rosenthal, but the two sides still couldn’t work out a deal leading up to July 31. Oakland ultimately sent Gray to the Yankees for a trio of prospects on deadline day, officially ending any chance of the Brewers acquiring him.

Avisail Garcia Placed On DL With Strained Thumb Ligament

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White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia has been diagnosed with a strained ligament in his thumb and will be placed on the DL, per a team announcement. Garcia will miss approximately two weeks with the injury, tweets MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. CSN Chciago’s Chuck Garfien tweets that Garcia will undergo an MRI for further evaluation. A corresponding move has not yet been announced.

[Related: Updated Chicago White Sox depth chart]

While Garcia hasn’t been among the most discussed White Sox trade candidates, it certainly stands to reason that the Chicago front office would’ve listened to offers on the 26-year-old. He’s controlled only through the 2019 season and has enjoyed the most productive season of his career at the plate. Through 363 plate appearances, Garcia is hitting .303/.347/.485 with 13 home runs, 17 doubles and three triples. He’s also turned in slightly above-average marks in right field, per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, for the second straight season. The injury makes a move involving Garcia considerably less likely, however.

Much of Garcia’s 2017 production looks attributable to a career-high BABIP that has begun to come back to earth in recent weeks, though he’s improved his strikeout rate to a career-best 21.5 percent and has substantially increased his overall contact rate at the plate as well. He’s also sporting a career-best homer-to-flyball ratio (19.7 percent) and has seen a corresponding uptick in isolated power (.182).

With both Avisail and Leury Garcia on the shelf, the White Sox could give waiver pickup Alen Hanson more looks in right field. The team also has Willy Garcia as an option in Triple-A. Outfield prospect Ryan Cordell, acquired in the trade that sent Anthony Swarzak to the Brewers, would likely be an option were it not for the fact that he’s been on the minor league disabled list since late June. White Sox GM Rick Hahn elaborated on Cordell’s back injury, telling reporters that it’ll probably take another few weeks to resolve and suggesting that Cordell could be sidelined until the instructional league in September (Twitter link via the Daily Herald’s Scot Gregor).

Cafardo’s Latest: Gray, Astros, Stanton, Phils, Cards, BoSox

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The AL West rival Astros and Athletics are mutually interested in making a trade that would involve Oakland right-hander Sonny Gray, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The last-place A’s have been closely monitoring the Astros’ system, per Cafardo, during a period in which Houston’s four best starters (Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh) are on the disabled list. Gray, who would likely slot in third in a healthy Astros rotation, is only running a 4.44 ERA through 52 2/3 innings, but his secondary stats are encouraging and he’s under control via arbitration through 2019. As such, he’d warrant a strong return for the A’s.

More rumblings from Cafardo as the trade deadline approaches:

  • If the Marlins place right fielder Giancarlo Stanton on the trade block in the coming months, the NL East rival Phillies would be a sensible landing spot, opines Cafardo. The cellar-dwelling Phillies are a big-market team with the money and the prospects to swing a deal for Stanton (who’s due nearly $300MM over the final 10 years of his contract), observes Cafardo. Stanton has a full no-trade clause, though, so there’s no guarantee he’d approve a deal to Philadelphia or anywhere else. Further complicating matters, Cafardo has heard that the Phillies would “need” to acquire fellow Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich in a deal involving Stanton. Even though Yelich is under control for reasonable prices through the 2022 campaign, he could end up on the block.
  • Given that they’re five games back in their division and 10.5 out of a wild-card spot, the Cardinals don’t look like surefire buyers at the moment. Nevertheless, a pair of right-handed-hitting right fielders – the Tigers’ J.D. Martinez and the White Sox’s Avisail Garcia – have been frequently linked to the Redbirds this year, relays Cafardo. Martinez, a free agent-to-be who’s on an $11.75MM salary, is hitting a torrid .310/.398/.681 with 11 home runs in 133 plate appearances for the scuffling Tigers. Garcia, who’s much cheaper than Martinez ($3MM) and under control through 2019, is in the midst of a career year (.337/.378/.549 with 10 HRs in 262 PAs) for the soon-to-sell White Sox.
  • The Red Sox have “limited” interest in signing free agent third baseman Jhonny Peralta to a minor league contract, reports Cafardo. Peralta has been available since St. Louis released him Tuesday, which came after more than a year of subpar production from the once-steady veteran. Peralta would give the Red Sox yet another flawed hot corner option, though he is familiar with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who was the general manager in Detroit during Peralta’s run there from 2010-13.
  • Phillies left fielder Howie Kendrick will intrigue both the Red Sox and Yankees if he’s able to play third, writes Cafardo. Kendrick has a bit of experience there (18 games), but the 33-year-old primarily lined up at second base before switching to the outfield. Regardless of whether a move to third is on the horizon, the righty-swinging Kendrick has emerged as a likely trade chip for rebuilding Philadelphia, suggests Cafardo (and as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk and Jeff Todd have recently noted). Kendrick isn’t cheap ($10MM), but the impending free agent has helped his stock with a .324/.383/.467 line in 115 PAs.

Make Or Break Year: Avisail Garcia

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MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings. 

As you may have heard, the White Sox are entering a rebuilding phase. For 25-year-old Avisail Garcia, that may be a good thing. Otherwise, he might already have been pushed out of his current spot atop the South Siders’ depth chart in right field.

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Before this winter, the Chicago front office’s last significant selling move came at the 2013 trade deadline, when the team landed Garcia and three other prospects in the swap that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to the Tigers. The hope at the time was that Garcia would step right into the MLB lineup and make himself a fixture.

Despite his evident tools, Garcia has thus far fallen well shy of hopes. There has been no shortage of opportunity — he has taken over 1,500 trips to the plate in the majors — but the results just haven’t been there.

In the aggregate, Garcia has slashed a modest .258/.310/.385 while striking out at a 23.8% clip and walking just 6.2% of the time. Though he carries a solid 14.4% HR/FB rate, Garcia has put the ball on the ground quite a bit, carrying a 53.2% goundball rate. Despite the power potential, and a healthy .320 career BABIP, Garcia just hasn’t reached base enough or hit for enough power to rate as even an average corner outfielder.

Adding to the concern is the fact that Garcia has never shown polish in the other aspects of his game. Over his career, he has rated as a well-below-average baserunner and fielder. In the aggregate, Garcia has posted -1.4 fWAR and 0.1 rWAR for his career — anemic tallies considering the amount of time he has received.

If there’s a ray of hope, perhaps it can be found in the improvements Garcia did make in 2016. He drew positive metrics for both his glovework and baserunning for the first time; if that can be maintained, it would significantly boost his floor. Of course, the offensive work — .245/.307/.385 — hardly gave added cause for optimism. But Garcia has long been valued most for the upside in his bat, and he has yet even to reach his 26th birthday.

As noted, that background likely wouldn’t be sufficient for Garcia to enter the season with a regular job were it not for the fact that the White Sox already committed to a rebuild. With little in the way of roster pressure, he ought to receive a fair bit of rope to establish himself.

But there could well come a point where the White Sox decide to cut bait, particularly if they feel other, yet younger players are more deserving of an opportunity. Garcia’s contractual upside is limited, after all, and not just because he’s owed $3MM this year. Much like former top prospect Jurickson Profar, another younger player who isn’t fully established in the bigs, Garcia will enter the 2017 season with just two more years of club control remaining thereafter.

It’s not altogether clear whether Garcia has much of a future with the White Sox, whether or not he can pull himself out of his malaise. Perhaps the best-case scenario for Chicago is one in which Garcia plays well enough to turn himself into a solid trade candidate, freeing the organization to move him either this summer or next winter. For Garcia, though, there’s still plenty of opportunity both to build off of a nice platform arb salary and to develop a case for a free-agent payday after the 2019 campaign, which he’ll play at just 28 years of age.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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