Make Or Break Year: Avisail Garcia
MLBTR is rebooting its “make or break year” series, in which we analyze players who enter the season with up-and-down track records but also an opportunity to stake a claim to significant future earnings.
As you may have heard, the White Sox are entering a rebuilding phase. For 25-year-old Avisail Garcia, that may be a good thing. Otherwise, he might already have been pushed out of his current spot atop the South Siders’ depth chart in right field.
Before this winter, the Chicago front office’s last significant selling move came at the 2013 trade deadline, when the team landed Garcia and three other prospects in the swap that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to the Tigers. The hope at the time was that Garcia would step right into the MLB lineup and make himself a fixture.
Despite his evident tools, Garcia has thus far fallen well shy of hopes. There has been no shortage of opportunity — he has taken over 1,500 trips to the plate in the majors — but the results just haven’t been there.
In the aggregate, Garcia has slashed a modest .258/.310/.385 while striking out at a 23.8% clip and walking just 6.2% of the time. Though he carries a solid 14.4% HR/FB rate, Garcia has put the ball on the ground quite a bit, carrying a 53.2% goundball rate. Despite the power potential, and a healthy .320 career BABIP, Garcia just hasn’t reached base enough or hit for enough power to rate as even an average corner outfielder.
Adding to the concern is the fact that Garcia has never shown polish in the other aspects of his game. Over his career, he has rated as a well-below-average baserunner and fielder. In the aggregate, Garcia has posted -1.4 fWAR and 0.1 rWAR for his career — anemic tallies considering the amount of time he has received.
If there’s a ray of hope, perhaps it can be found in the improvements Garcia did make in 2016. He drew positive metrics for both his glovework and baserunning for the first time; if that can be maintained, it would significantly boost his floor. Of course, the offensive work — .245/.307/.385 — hardly gave added cause for optimism. But Garcia has long been valued most for the upside in his bat, and he has yet even to reach his 26th birthday.
As noted, that background likely wouldn’t be sufficient for Garcia to enter the season with a regular job were it not for the fact that the White Sox already committed to a rebuild. With little in the way of roster pressure, he ought to receive a fair bit of rope to establish himself.
But there could well come a point where the White Sox decide to cut bait, particularly if they feel other, yet younger players are more deserving of an opportunity. Garcia’s contractual upside is limited, after all, and not just because he’s owed $3MM this year. Much like former top prospect Jurickson Profar, another younger player who isn’t fully established in the bigs, Garcia will enter the 2017 season with just two more years of club control remaining thereafter.
It’s not altogether clear whether Garcia has much of a future with the White Sox, whether or not he can pull himself out of his malaise. Perhaps the best-case scenario for Chicago is one in which Garcia plays well enough to turn himself into a solid trade candidate, freeing the organization to move him either this summer or next winter. For Garcia, though, there’s still plenty of opportunity both to build off of a nice platform arb salary and to develop a case for a free-agent payday after the 2019 campaign, which he’ll play at just 28 years of age.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
White Sox GM Rick Hahn Discusses Trading Adam Eaton
After a whirlwind stretch of about 27 hours in which he traded franchise cornerstone Chris Sale and one of the game’s best all-around outfielders in Adam Eaton, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn expressed both the difficult and emotional nature of the decisions as well as the optimism he had about his organization’s future at a press conference at Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings. Having traded Sale for prospects Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz yesterday, Hahn acquired right-handers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning in this afternoon’s Eaton trade.
“There’s going to be some difficult elements of this along the way, as we talked about yesterday,” said Hahn of the decision embark on a rebuild. “I did not enjoy my phone call with Adam any more than I enjoyed my phone call with Chris yesterday. But everyone in that room, in that suite upstairs, when we went through the process of evaluating whether this was the right thing to do, was unanimously on board that this will help further our process.”
Though the front office was seemingly all on board, Hahn didn’t characterize that as an easy consensus to reach. Trading a player with five years of remaining club control was understandably characterized as a difficult decision to reach and one that at times was the source of some debate.
“We certainly expect to be in a position to contend for championships within the next five years,” the GM stated, “so we had to have our own debate. ‘Are we better off doing this now, perhaps diversify a bit and bring in some other high-ceiling talent? Or do you stick with Adam yourself?’ I do think he had perhaps a little bit more appeal than maybe some free agent options, given the price points, or perhaps than some other players on the market because of the length of their control relative to Adam. That also meant that he came with a higher asking price.”
In the case of Eaton, that was three right-handed pitchers that Hahn termed “potential front-end-of-the-rotation fixtures.” The White Sox entered negotiations with high expectations and didn’t merely sell to the highest bidder, Hahn explained, and that’ll be the manner in which he continues to operate as he fields interest in other players on the roster. Names like Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera represent short-term assets (free agents next winter) that could potentially be explored in deals, while others such as David Robertson (two years of control) Jose Abreu (three years) and Jose Quintana (four years) could merit larger commitments due to the fact that each can be a long-term (and reasonably priced) solution for an interested party.
Unsurprisingly, Hahn didn’t make mention of any specific players he’s already discussed or plans to market to other clubs, but he made no secret of the fact that the Sox hope to again find themselves in a position to receive a trade offer that they feel too strong to rebuff.
“There may well be nothing else while we’re [at the Winter Meetings,” Hahn explained. “There may not be anything else until after the holidays, or through the trade deadline or until next offseason. We’re taking a longer-term view, and we’re going to do this deliberately and with reason and logic, and react accordingly to the market. Eaton came together because Washington was fairly aggressive, as were a few other suitors that accelerated the time frame. We are open and eager for that to happen again, but if it doesn’t, we’ll be patient and move when the time is right.”
Though five of the players that they’ve acquired since Tuesday morning are pitchers, the White Sox weren’t specifically focusing on high-end pitching prospects when negotiating with other clubs. The Sox pursued the best prospects possible, regardless of position, according to Hahn. The end goal, he further explained, is to develop enough of a base of talent that the Sox don’t need to be so reliant on a top-heavy roster. In recent years, the White Sox haven’t had the “one-through-25 depth or even the one-through-40 depth” that a team needs in order to play at a championship level, Hahn opined.
Fostering that level of depth obviously isn’t a short-term endeavor, but that also doesn’t mean that the White Sox won’t reap any benefits in 2017. While Dunning — whom Hahn noted was high on the team’s draft board in 2016 — will begin the season in Class-A, both Giolito and Lopez are expected to open the season in the Sox’ Triple-A rotation and will get the opportunity to pitch in the Majors if they prove ready. “The good ones have a way of forcing the issue,” said Hahn, noting that both Giolito and Lopez “conceivably will contribute to the 2017 White Sox.”
And, depending on how the remainder of Chicago’s trading efforts work out, there could be further ripple effects on the Opening Day roster. The White Sox now look at Cabrera, Charlie Tilson and Avisail Garcia as their starting outfield alignment, according to the GM. Further subtractions throughout the roster, though, could lead the team to “augment” the roster as Spring Training approaches. If the Sox don’t have the requisite upper-level depth to fill a void or if the team doesn’t wish to rush a prospect to the Majors, it seems reasonable to expect the Sox to pursue a veteran option that could serve as a bridge to younger talent.
Over the past few years, Hahn has been used to speaking at press conferences in which he’s announcing a newly acquired addition to his Major League roster with an eye toward contending, making the past few days somewhat uncharted territory for the South Side GM.
“The weird part for me is that we walk around here, you have a lot of people congratulating you — kindly, with well-intentioned congratulations — whether it’s scouts, or executives from other clubs,” Hahn explained. “It’s a little awkward, because we traded Chris Sale. That’s not something you feel great about. That’s not a feather in your cap, so to speak, but this is where we are.”
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
With the non-tender deadline set for tonight at 8pm ET, expect to see quite a few players avoid arbitration today — specifically those who stood out as possible non-tender candidates. You can check out the full list of projected arbitration salaries from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz here, and we’ll run down the list of players to duck arbitration in this post…
- Infielder Ehire Adrianza gets $600K in the majors and $300K in the minors with the Giants, per another Heyman tweet. He had projected for only the league minimum after receiving action in just forty major league contests.
- Lefty Paco Rodriguez avoided arbitration with the Braves for $637,500, Heyman tweets. It seems likely he’d have been non-tendered had he not taken that contract, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter), which helps explain why he took less than his projected $900K.
- The Brewers have agreed to a contract with second baseman Scooter Gennett for 2017, per Heyman (via Twitter). He receives $2.525MM, a fair sight shy of his projection of $3.0MM. Given his limited ability to face left-handed pitching, Gennett may not have fared better on the open market.
- Righty Cory Gearrin will be paid $1.05MM by the Giants, Heyman tweets. That’s right in line with his $1.1MM projected arb value.
- Infielder Brett Lawrie will earn $3.5MM next year for the White Sox, per Heyman (on Twitter). That’s well shy of MLBTR’s $5.1MM projection — which was predicated upon Lawrie’s $4.125MM salary from a season ago. It’s highly unusual for players to receive pay cuts in arbitration, least of all when they are coming off of seasons in which they play a reasonable amount (384 plate appearances, in his case) and put up non-trivial numbers at the plate (a roughly league-average .248/.310/.413 batting line with a dozen home runs). But in some cases, players feel they’re better off taking the money on the table, and the opportunity at hand, rather than testing the market. It’s certainly possible that was the case here.
- The Twins have agreed to a $2.6MM price tag with infielder Eduardo Escobar, according to Heyman (via Twitter). He had projected at $2.9MM in his second season of eligibility. The 27-year-old had posted two consecutive seasons of above-average production, but limped to a .236/.280/.338 slash over 377 plate appearances last year.
- Lefty Jake McGee picks up a $5.9MM salary from the Rockies, also via Heyman (on Twitter). That’s just shy of his $6.1MM projection. Though the high price tag (driven by prior years’ save tallies) had made McGee at least a hypothetical non-tender candidate, it’s not surprising to see him return. Colorado will hope that he can restore some velocity and improve upon the 4.73 ERA and 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 that he posted in his first year with the Rox.
- The Braves agreed to a $800K figure with catcher Anthony Recker, Heyman tweets. The veteran receiver had projected at $1MM, but will settle for less to take his place in a still-uncertain catching mix. Atlanta also recently acquired and tendered Tuffy Gosewisch, and also has Tyler Flowers under contract. Recker hit a surprising .278/.394/.433 last year, albeit over just 112 plate appearances. While he lands a bit shy of his projected number, Recker won’t have to settle for a split arrangement; instead, he’ll receive a full big league deal.
- White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia received a $3MM deal from the club, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). A Super Two player last winter, Garcia turned in another subpar year at the plate and in the field, but managed to hold onto his roster spot in Chicago. The 25-year-old was projected at $3.4MM.
- The Athletics have avoided arbitration with first baseman Yonder Alonso by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $4MM, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (on Twitter). Alonso looked like a non-tender candidate after an underwhelming season at the plate that saw him bat .253/.316/.367 with seven homers and 34 doubles across 532 plate appearances. Once one of the game’s top all-around prospects, Alonso has never materialized into the offensive force he was supposed to become and is a lifetime .269/.334/.387 hitter.
Earlier Updates
- Lefty Wade LeBlanc and the Pirates have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $800K, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Leblanc will make $750K in 2017, and his contract contains an option for the 2018 season that is valued at $1.25MM and comes with a $50K buyout. The veteran southpaw logged a 4.50 ERA in 50 innings for the Mariners last year before being traded to the Buccos, where he allowed one run in 12 innings of work with a 10-to-2 K/BB ratio. The 62 innings Leblanc logged last year were the most he’s pitched in a big league season since 2012. He’s controllable through the 2019 season and would be arbitration-eligible once more if the Pirates exercise their 2018 option on him.
- The Mets and catcher Rene Rivera agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.75MM, Heyman tweets. The 33-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Mets last summer and eventually found his way onto the big league roster due to a combination of injuries and struggles from backstops Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki. While Rivera didn’t hit much — .222/.291/.341 in 207 plate appearances — he’s a strong defensive backstop and gives the Mets a glove-first option to back up either d’Arnaud or Plawecki (presumably the former, who has been the team’s starter when healthy in recent years).
- Outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis and the Brewers settled on a split contract that pays the veteran $900K in the Majors and $257K in the minors (Heyman again, on Twitter). The 29-year-old picked up 392 plate appearances in 125 games with Milwaukee, batting just .209 but logging a .324 OBP and slugging .385. The 13 homers Nieuwenhuis hit were far and away a career-best — he entered the year with just 17 home runs in 693 PAs — and he contributed solid defense across all three outfield spots.
AL Central Notes: Garcia, Hunter, Strahm
The remaining games in the 2016 season could very well determine Avisail Garcia‘s future with the White Sox, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score. The 25-year-old will be arbitration-eligible for the second time (as a Super Two player) but has once again delivered a sub-par performance at the plate, hitting just .243/.310/.380 in 332 plate appearances. Garcia disappointed in a full season last year (.257/.309/.365) but was tendered a contract due to the team’s hopes for improvement, ultimately settling on a $2.1MM salary. His lackluster play notwithstanding, Garcia will be due another raise on top of that sum. Garcia will probably never rate as a plus (or even average) defender, but a strong finish at the plate could seemingly hold a great deal of influence over Chicago’s thinking. White Sox hitting coach Todd Steverson spoke to Levine about the work they’ve put in on trying to alter the contact point and launch angle in Garcia’s swing in an effort to generate more fly-balls and line drives.
More from the AL Central…
- The timing of the Indians‘ release of Tommy Hunter yesterday looked strange on paper, as the right-hander was working toward a return from a back injury and was deep into a rehab assignment. However, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports (links to Twitter) that the Indians looked at their potential September call-ups and decided that they had more options they wanted to evaluate than roster spots available. The veteran Hunter was the odd man out, they decided, so they elected to release him now in order to give the 30-year-old a chance to sign with a new club before Sept. 1 — thus allowing him to be postseason-eligible with a new organization. Hunter injured his back in a fall at his home over the All-Star break but had pitched well for the Indians prior to his injury, logging a 3.74 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 52.3 percent ground-ball rate in 21 2/3 innings.
- Rookie left-hander Matt Strahm has been sensational out of the Royals‘ bullpen since being promoted in the wake of Wade Davis‘ most recent injury — 0.84 ERA, 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 10 2/3 innings — but GM Dayton Moore tells Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that the organization views Strahm as a starting pitcher first and foremost. Strahm spent the season in the Double-A rotation, making a career-high 18 starts as he further distanced himself from 2013 Tommy John surgery, Dodd writes. In that time, the 24-year-old a 3.43 ERA with impressive rates of 9.4 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9, and that production, coupled with his excellence in the ‘pen, will have him in the mix for a rotation job next spring. The Royals will have Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young and Mike Minor in next year’s rotation mix, and there’s been speculation that they could try to bring Edinson Volquez back into the fold as well. Beyond that, lefty Jason Vargas figures to be recovered from Tommy John surgery and will be in the picture as well.
Rosenthal Latest: O’s, White Sox, Ethier, Padres, A’s
There’s plenty of trade chatter as camp approaches, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes in a column today. That’s already been made evident by the notable deal struck earlier this evening. As always, a full read is recommended, but here are some of the highlights of the post:
- The Orioles would prefer to add Dexter Fowler after signing Yovani Gallardo — assuming they can get that deal done — says Rosenthal. But if that doesn’t work out for some reason, Baltimore’s backup plan would be to pursue a deal for Jay Bruce. The Reds appear to have realistic expectations with the veteran, who hasn’t been consistently productive in recent years and is owed $12.5MM this year (with a $13MM option for another season). Indeed, getting something done would likely require rather modest expectations. Though Bruce has shown quite a bit of talent over the years, and is still shy of thirty years of age, his track record over the past two seasons (.222/.288/.406) isn’t inspiring.
- The White Sox could be a threat on Fowler or other free agent outfielders, per the report. Chicago seems to have more interest in adding there than in pursuing Ian Desmond, as the team likes its internal options at shortstop. The South Siders are pushing on multiple fronts and might well also line up a deal for Avisail Garcia if they make a significant addition. The willingness to be flexible and seek creative avenues to value could certainly serve the Sox well as the winter wraps up; the team already seems to have done well in securing Mat Latos at just $3MM.
- Chicago’s interest in Andre Ethier has been overstated, says Rosenthal, but the Dodgers have indeed explored trade scenarios. It’s a complicated decision, as he notes, since Ethier has been plenty useful. Then there’s the fact that his contract status comes with some intricacies. Ethier is set to reach ten-and-five rights early in the year, and his vesting clause poses a bit of a barrier for possible suitors. From my perspective, it remains somewhat difficult to see another organization being willing to take on enough salary (and/or give back enough value) to make a deal work out. There’s $38MM still to go over two years, plus the threat of a reasonably attainable vesting clause, and that’s quite a bit for a player who will soon turn 34 and would come with expectations of being a solid regular rather than a difference maker.
- While the Padres are still looking around for deals, discussing players like Matt Kemp and Derek Norris, near-term deals for those prominent names appear unlikely. Likewise, the Athletics have had talks involving Billy Butler, and may even have had one opportunity to deal the struggling DH. Butler is more expendable than ever with Khris Davis now in the fold, though that addition hardly makes a trade inevitable given how much Butler is owed. Oakland will presumably hope he can rebuild value by carrying momentum from a solid finish to an otherwise rough 2015.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump:
Reactions To And Effects Of The Todd Frazier Trade
It’s been a busy week at MLBTR, and we’re just now catching up on some reactions to one of the week’s major moves: the three-team deal in which the White Sox received star third baseman Todd Frazier from the Reds. The Reds, of course, got infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon and outfielder Scott Schebler from the Dodgers, while the Dodgers received righty Frankie Montas, infielder Micah Johnson and outfielder Trayce Thompson from Chicago.
- The Reds got surprisingly little in return for Frazier, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Peraza, the key to the Reds’ end of the trade, is a potentially terrific defender at second base and a very fast baserunner, but he’s coming off an underwhelming season and doesn’t have much in the way of power or patience. Schebler, meanwhile, merely looks like a potential fourth outfielder, and Dixon might not even be a significant prospect. The White Sox did very well in the deal, Law writes, and the Dodgers got good value, although it’s unclear why they didn’t just acquire Frazier themselves, since they had what the Reds evidently wanted.
- MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, meanwhile, wonders why the Reds didn’t just cut the three-team deal off at the pass and trade directly with the White Sox, who gave up three young players who appear to be better than the ones the Reds ultimately got.
- After adding Frazier and Brett Lawrie, the White Sox could continue to make moves, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. They could deal outfielder Avisail Garcia or first baseman Adam LaRoche if they can find a trade partner, and dealing one of those two players could conceivably allow them to sign Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton. (I’d counter that Garcia, who projects to make just $2.3MM next season, shouldn’t be a significant obstacle to signing Cespedes or Upton if that’s really what the White Sox want to do, and that it should be difficult for the team to clear much of LaRoche’s salary in a trade.) The Dodgers, meanwhile, could now use their collection of prospects to trade for Jose Fernandez, or failing that, someone like Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, Sonny Gray or Tyson Ross.
- The White Sox expressed interest in Frazier at the beginning of the offseason, Reds GM Dick Williams tells MLB Network Radio (link to audio). The Reds and White Sox did have discussions about a two-team trade, but the Reds preferred the package of players the Dodgers brought to the table. Williams adds that one factor in the deal was the strength of their competition in the NL Central, which meant that their best chance of success was to gather prospects and build a team that could be successful “a couple of years” from now. Williams also notably says that teams have continued to discuss with him the possibility of trading for Aroldis Chapman despite the domestic violence accusations against Chapman.
White Sox Taking Offers On Avisail Garcia
The White Sox have informed other teams that they are open to trading right fielder Avisail Garcia, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com reports. Moving Gracia is just one option the team is considering, per the report, but Chicago has been fielding offers over the course of November.
While the club insists that it continues to believe in Garcia’s upside, says Hayes, it is confident in relying on Trayce Thompson as a replacement option. Both players come with their share of risk and reward, of course, and both are just 24 years of age.
The impetus to consider a Garcia trade comes in large part from the fact that the Sox have multiple areas of need elsewhere. Hayes writes that the club could be focused, in particular, on improving the left side of the infield, and may find it necessary to utilize Garcia “to sweeten a deal to return major league talent.” That would imply, of course, that he could be packaged in a multi-player swap, rather than sold off for a prospect return.
Other clubs will certainly be intrigued by the possibility of rolling the dice on Garcia’s talent, as he’s a former top-100 talent who has at least shown the ability to produce at a league-average rate at a young age. While his defensive issues also limit his value, it’s possible to imagine that Garcia could be a useful part in the right trade. And Garcia comes with four seasons of control, though it won’t necessarily be cheap, as MLBTR projects that he’ll earn $2.3MM this year as a Super Two.
List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers
Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.
- Dan Jennings, White Sox (2.171)
- George Kontos, Giants (2.171)
- Justin Grimm, Cubs (2.170)
- Arodys Vizcaino, Braves (2.168)
- Avisail Garcia, White Sox (2.167)
- Jurickson Profar, Rangers (2.167)
- Jedd Gyorko, Padres (2.164)
- Juan Lagares, Mets (2.160)
- Didi Gregorius, Yankees (2.159)
- Erasmo Ramirez, Rays (2.158)
- Chris Archer, Rays (2.156)
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies (2.155)
- Will Smith, Brewers (2.155)
- Jean Machi, Red Sox (2.154)
- Seth Maness, Cardinals (2.154)
- Scott Van Slyke, Dodgers (2.151)
- David Lough, Orioles (2.149)
- Chris Hatcher, Dodgers (2.146)
- Evan Scribner, Athletics (2.142)
- Nick Tepesch, Rangers (2.136)
- Zach Putnam, White Sox (2.135)
- Chris Withrow, Braves (2.132)
- Kole Calhoun, Angels (2.130)
- Jeff Manship, Indians (2.130)
- Anthony Rendon, Nationals (2.130)
Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.
It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.
That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.
AL Central Notes: Garcia, Viciedo, Weeks, Ichiro
The White Sox rank at the very top of the list of offseason winners compiled by Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. GM Rick Hahn ticked through many of the team’s questions this winter and should have a competitive team to show for it, says Heyman. Of course, despite plenty of praise, there are still some non-believers out there. They can point to this year’s PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus, which see Chicago as a 78-win team. Also of note from PECOTA, which is rather down on the division on the whole: the Tigers are tabbed as a .500 club, while the Royals project to win just 72 wins after appearing in the World Series last year.
More from the south side and the AL Central:
- The White Sox are a much improved team heading into the 2015 season, but much of the optimism surrounding the club relies on the contributions of right fielder Avisail Garcia, writes Fangraphs’ Neil Weinberg. Perception appears to be that Garcia can handily outperform the just-designated Dayan Viciedo, but Weinberg cautions that we shouldn’t readily accept that as fact. Garcia’s stats to date tell a similar tale to that of Viciedo — modest on-base percentage with some power and below-average base-running and defensive skills. While Garcia’s track record is clearly smaller, the two are excellent statistical comps even when looking at their production through the age of 23. Weinberg notes that scouts have long questioned whether or not Garcia would be able to resist bad pitches and make enough contact to succeed, and the assumption that he will outperform Viciedo is based largely on perceived ceiling as opposed to likely outcomes.
- Newly-designated White Sox slugger Dayan Viciedo should generate plenty of interest, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. The American League West offers the best matches, Morosi argues, with the Mariners, Athletics, and Rangers all potentially making sense as landing spots.
- Despite some apparent suggestions, the Twins are not interested in free agent second baseman Rickie Weeks, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. That is not terribly surprising, given that the right-handed-hitting Weeks does not play short and would presumably have needed to serve as a backup to two right-handed hitters in Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe.
- Ichiro Suzuki‘s representatives (who he shares with Twins skipper Paul Molitor) tried to generate interest in the veteran from Minnesota, but the club never saw a fit, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. As Berardino explains, Ichiro and Molitor — both incredible pure hitters — share an interesting relationship.