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Brandon Nimmo

NL West Notes: Nimmo, Rockies, Padres, Lawlar

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Brandon Nimmo is “on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list” heading into the offseason, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post.  Given how the Rockies somewhat unexpectedly splurged on Kris Bryant last winter, they shouldn’t be ruled out of making another splashy move, though it will indeed take a big commitment to win a bidding war for Nimmo’s services.  As observed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in his recent Rockies-focused Offseason Outlook entry, Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent (unless they created some payroll space with trades and non-tenders).  The Rockies might at least have a geographical advantage if Nimmo wants to play closer to home, as Denver is less than two hours away from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Signing Nimmo would immediately solidify the center field position for the Rockies, bring some left-handed balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and give the club some more offensive pop.  While Nimmo has had trouble staying off the injured list during his career, he has always been productive when healthy, and answered some questions about his durability by playing in 151 games with the Mets in 2022.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 over 673 plate appearances, with 16 homers and a league-best seven triples — his 134 wRC+ was higher than any Rockies player with at least 100 PA last season.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Padres surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, though it doesn’t seem like the team is planning to curb its spending any time soon.  “We’re good, and we have to protect that and enhance it,” club chairman Peter Seidler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune).  Naturally, neither Seidler or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave any concrete numbers about offseason spending plans, and Preller noted that the Padres have had the financial flexibility “for the things are going to come up through the season.  Sometimes that calls for players and free agency trades, players of different caliber and different dollar amounts.”  As Acee notes, San Diego already has around $187MM projected for next season’s payroll, and plenty of holes to fill on a roster that might lose some key players to free agency.
  • Diamondbacks star prospect Jordan Lawlar will need 6-8 weeks of recovery time after suffering a fractured left scapula last week during Arizona Fall League play.  A wayward pitch from Orioles prospect Nick Richmond “just hit [Lawlar] in the wrong spot,” D’Backs farm director Josh Barfield told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  However, Barfield said the injury won’t require surgery or be too much of a setback for Lawlar’s offseason prep, even though it will end Lawlar’s excellent AFL showing.  The sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Lawlar just turned 20 years old back in July but has already made his Double-A debut.  Assuming good health and continued progress, it might not be out of the question that Lawlar makes his Major League debut late in the 2023 season, though the Diamondbacks don’t want to rush things with a player who has only 102 total minor league games on his resume.

Mets Notes: Nimmo, deGrom, Eppler, Showalter

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Brandon Nimmo is heading into free agency on a high note, having just had arguably the best season of his career. He hit 16 home runs in 151 games and produced an overall batting line of .274/.367/.433. That production was 34% better than the league average hitter, as measured by wRC+. When combined with some strong work in the outfield, he produced 5.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, eclipsing his previous high of 4.8.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently spoke to Scott Boras, who is Nimmo’s agent, with Boras highlighting that this winter’s free agent class is low on impact center fielders and leadoff hitters. Looking at the list of available free agents, Boras has a point. Aaron Judge played some center this year but is primarily a right fielder. Beyond him and Nimmo, the other options are mostly bench/depth types, with the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier perhaps the only thing approaching a plausible regular up the middle.

Sherman compares Nimmo to Starling Marte and the $78MM contract he got from the Mets but opines that Nimmo has a chance to double that. There are certainly reasons to think free agency will be kinder to Nimmo than it was to Marte, with age being a significant separator. Marte was 33 years old at the time his deal was signed, whereas Nimmo won’t turn 30 until March. Given that three-year gap, Nimmo could try to try to push for a lengthier deal than the four years that Marte secured. Marte was coming off a remarkably similar walk year, as he posted a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR in 2021. He didn’t have a qualifying offer attached since he was traded midseason, something Nimmo will be saddled with. But there won’t be a lockout this winter to complicate matters and the CBT barriers have all moved higher since then. Combining those factors with the fact that teams are further removed from pandemic losses and the spending environment might be generally more robust than it was in November of 2021, when Marte was signed.

Whether the Mets will be in the Nimmo sweepstakes remains to be seen, but there is an argument to be made for them letting him walk. They could theoretically slide Marte over to center field and focus their resources on a pitching staff that is set for a huge amount of turnover. The Mets have about a dozen hurlers who could reach the open market in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of some options and opt-outs. Of course, the biggest elephant in the room is Jacob deGrom, who has the ability to opt out of the remainder of his contract in a few weeks. deGrom has been clear about his intention to trigger that opt out, even while he was dealing with the uncertainty of his injured shoulder earlier this year.

Once he reaches free agency, his market will be a difficult one to predict. He has been one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy but hasn’t managed a full season since 2019. The pandemic limited him to just 12 starts in 2020 and then injuries kept him at 15 starts last year and 11 here in 2022. He’s still been excellent when on the mound though, posting a 2.05 ERA over 224 1/3 innings in that three-year stretch, along with a 42.1% ground ball rate, 42.4% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate.

Given his excellent quality but diminished quantity in recent years, there is likely to be a wide variance in how different teams will value his potential contributions going forward. For his part, it’s possible that deGrom isn’t particularly focused on strictly maximizing his earnings, with Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic reporting that the righty will also be looking for comfort, preferring to be closer to his Florida home.

It might be difficult for deGrom to get exactly what he wants in that regard, as the two clubs based in his home state aren’t big spenders. The Marlins have been clearing their payroll in the recent past and then focused on adding offense when they finally did make some recent additions. Jorge Soler’s $15MM salary will be the largest contract on the books next year and it would certainly come as a shock to see them more than double that figure to land deGrom, especially when they have so much starting pitching that they are planning to use it to trade for bats. The Rays have never been huge players in free agency and have a massive 19-player arbitration class. That’s likely going to lead them down a path of making tough cuts around the fringes of their roster, even without adding a marquee free agent expenditure.

Moving outside the state, the nearest team to Florida can be found in Atlanta. They have also been the destination of a pitcher with similar geographic preferences, as Charlie Morton continues to re-up with the club in order to be near his own Florida home. deGrom would surely be a welcome addition to any club from a pure baseball perspective, but there are reasons to think Atlanta isn’t a perfect fit. In addition to Morton, the club also has Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider penciled into their rotation for next year. Jake Odorizzi will likely exercise his player option and take a spot at the back end, something the club surely anticipated when they traded for him at the deadline.

Adding deGrom and then trading Odorizzi would be an attractive way to get around the crowded rotation, though that would come with financial complications. Atlanta ran out a franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $178MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, way beyond the previous high of $131MM from the year before. They already have about $154MM committed for next year, without factoring in arbitration raises for players like Fried. Whatever budget they have left over might need to be earmarked for shortstop, since Dansby Swanson is slated for free agency. Even if the club is willing to let Swanson walk and stick with Vaughn Grissom at short, despite Grissom having only 41 games played above Double-A, signing deGrom would require the club to stretch it’s financial comfort zone even farther.

If deGrom considers Texas to be comfortably close to Florida, there would be a sensible fit on the Rangers. The club was very aggressive in free agency a year ago but still had another disappointing campaign in terms of results. They reportedly plan on being aggressive yet again this winter, with a stronger focus on starting pitching this time around. However, the Rangers arguably only have two rotation spots spoken for, with Jon Gray and Dane Dunning the only ones who can be reliably counted on. It might be wiser of them to spread their money around to multiple pitchers as opposed to focusing on one elite arm like deGrom, even if they succeed in re-signing Martín Pérez. It’s also unknown how deGrom’s reported desire to be near his family would be balanced against a natural desire to suit up for a surefire competitor.

Of course, the Mets will surely hope to overcome whatever obstacles come up this winter and bring deGrom back to Queens, but they will also have other matters to attend to. Beyond Nimmo and deGrom, it will be a fascinating offseason for the Mets, as their other free agents or potential free agents are Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Daniel Vogelbach, John Curtiss, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Naquin, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams. It’s anyone’s guess what the roster looks like a few months from now, but it seems there will at least be continuity off the field. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that both manager Buck Showalter and general manager Billy Eppler are secure in their respective jobs. It was the first season with the Mets for both, as Eppler was hired in November of last year and he then brought Showalter aboard during the lockout. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to end the campaign, the Mets still went 101-61, their best record since 1986. They will look to repeat or top that performance in 2023, though the first order of business will be filling the large number of holes on the roster that are about to open.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting The NL East Winner

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As the regular season nears its conclusion, the playoff picture has mostly come into focus. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, 10 have a cushion of at least 4 1/2 games. The Padres and Phillies are working to hold off the Brewers for the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, but the rest of the teams currently in playoff position have put themselves in a great spot to reach the postseason barring a major collapse. There’s an outside shot the White Sox track down the Guardians in the AL Central or the Orioles get back into the AL Wild Card race, but it’d take a major turn of events over the next two weeks.

There’s a similar lack of intrigue in most of the division races. The Astros and Dodgers have already clinched their respective divisions. The Yankees, Guardians and Cardinals all hold leads of six-plus games in theirs. The only division race that promises plenty of intrigue down the stretch: the battle for the NL East.

Both the Mets and Braves are already guaranteed to make the postseason. They’re each likely to surpass 100 wins. Yet one of those teams will come up just shy of a division title, leaving them as the #4 seed in the National League. That means a three-game series against the #5 seed in a first-round Wild Card set under the playoff format introduced in this spring’s collective bargaining agreement. Obviously, both teams would much prefer to secure the division title (and almost certainly the NL’s #2 seed and accompanying first-round bye). Which one is the frontrunner for the division crown? Let’s take a look at the remaining road for each and their current health outlook.

Mets (95-56 record, +147 run differential)

Remaining schedule: at Oakland (three games), vs. Miami (two games), at Atlanta (three games), vs. Washington (three games)

The Mets have 11 games remaining. Eight of them are against teams 28 games or more below .500. The other three: a crucial series next weekend in Atlanta. New York welcomed back Max Scherzer from a brief injured list stint on Monday. He came out with six perfect innings against the Brewers, striking out nine, before being lifted due to a pitch count limitation. The Mets rotation is at full strength at the right time, pushing players like Tylor Megill and David Peterson into the bullpen.

The biggest current injury for the Mets is on the position player side. Right fielder Starling Marte has yet to return after suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger two weeks back. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that the All-Star outfielder is hopeful he’ll be back in time for next weekend’s series with the Braves. Center fielder Brandon Nimmo, meanwhile, left today’s game with left quad soreness. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that he’s likely to go for imaging tomorrow but Nimmo downplayed the severity of the issue postgame.

Braves (93-56 record, +171 run differential)

Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia (four games), at Washington (three games), vs. Mets (three games), at Miami (three games)

The defending champions dug themselves an early hole with a mediocre first two months, but they’ve been incredible since the calendar flipped to June. They’re a staggering 70-28 over the past three and a half months, nearly erasing a deficit that was once as high as 10 1/2 games in the process. They’ve pulled even with the Mets in the loss column but have two fewer wins, leaving them with a bit more work to do to get ahead in the standings.

The Braves kick off a four-game set with the Phillies tomorrow. That’s a much more difficult series than any the Mets will play (aside from the Braves themselves), but Atlanta just swept Philly last weekend.

Like the Mets, Atlanta doesn’t have any key starting pitchers currently on the injured list. Rookie star Spencer Strider is battling some oblique soreness and had today’s scheduled start pushed back slightly, but there’s no indication an IL stint is currently under consideration. As with New York, Atlanta is down one star position player thanks to a fractured finger though. The Braves lost Ozzie Albies to a right pinky fracture over the weekend. There’s a chance he returns in the postseason but he’s not expected back before the end of the regular season. Rookie Vaughn Grissom filled in well in recent weeks while Albies was rehabbing a broken foot; he’ll be asked to do the same for the stretch run.

Tiebreaker procedure

The final three games between the Mets and Braves obviously loom as the largest remaining on the schedule for both clubs. Not only are they the most directly impactful in the standings, they also carry implications for the tiebreaker. The new CBA did away with the traditional Game 163 in favor of a tiebreaker system. If two clubs finish the season with the same record, the team with the better head-to-head mark gets the nod in the standings. The Mets lead this year’s season series 9-7, meaning Atlanta would need to sweep their final meeting to secure the tiebreaker.

How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out? Which team will celebrate an NL East crown two weeks from now?

(poll link for app users)

 

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

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The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

Mets Hoping To Retain Brandon Nimmo

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The Mets’ roster is facing a good bit of potential turnover this winter, with Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Chris Bassitt, Brandon Nimmo, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo and Trevor May among the many names able to reach free agency. DeGrom has an opt-out he’s said he plans to exercise even after missing time due to injury. Bassitt has a mutual option, which are very rarely exercised by both parties. Walker has a player option he should be able to easily surpass on the open market.

The 29-year-old Nimmo (30 next March) is a pure free agent at season’s end, but he tells Mike Puma of the New York Post that the Mets informed him as recently as the All-Star break that they’re hopeful of retaining him beyond the current season. There’s no indication the two have engaged in meaningful extension talks, but teams have a five-day exclusive negotiating window with their own free agents following the conclusion of the World Series. Failing to reach a new deal in that window — or sooner, as nothing’s technically preventing the two sides from speaking now — will prompt the team to make a decision on a potential qualifying offer for Nimmo.

Nimmo is a somewhat under-the-radar QO candidate, even with the hefty price point somewhere in the $18-19MM range. He’s been a bargain playing on a $7MM salary this season, hitting .269/.355/.421 with 10 homers, 21 doubles, five triples and anywhere from average to plus defensive marks in center field (-1 DRS, 2.7 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average). Opinions on the overall quality of his glovework may vary, but Nimmo has at the very least made himself into a passable defender who’s nowhere near the liability in center field he was just a few years ago.

On a rate basis, Nimmo has quietly been one of the league’s most-productive offensive players over the past several years. Dating back to 2018, he’s a .267/.387/.448 hitter in 1861 plate appearances. Out of 295 qualified hitters in that time, he’s tied with Mookie Betts and Alex Bregman for the sixth-best on-base percentage in baseball, and he has the game’s 15th-highest walk rate (13.7%). Nimmo’s brand of OBP-driven value at the plate may not hold the same appeal to fans as that of a prototypical .290-.310 hitter or 30-homer slugger, but it’s one that MLB front offices have proven to value nonetheless — particularly in center field, a premium position on the defensive spectrum (see: Dexter Fowler, Lorenzo Cain). By measure of wRC+, Nimmo has been 36% better than league average at the plate since 2018.

The elephant in the room, of course, is the necessity of specifying “on a rate basis.” Nimmo is a very good or even great offensive contributor when he’s been on the field … but health issues have hampered him immensely throughout the years. In his Major League career, Nimmo has been on the injured list for a hamstring strain, a partially collapsed lung, a finger contusion, a neck injury (which kept him out more than three months), a bone bruise in his hand and another hamstring strain. Even prior to his MLB days, Nimmo suffered a torn ACL (playing high school football), a strain in his other ACL (in the minors) and a torn tendon in his left foot. It is a long list of injuries. Since 2018, he’s played in 69.7% of possible games with the Mets.

Notably, Nimmo has been healthy for the bulk of the 2022 season. He spent four days on the Covid-related injured list earlier this season but has otherwise been a mainstay in the lineup and in center field. His walk rate is “down” to 9.1% (still above the league average), but he’s also striking out in a career-low 16.7% of his plate appearances.

When looking at a player’s free agency, age and market context also matter greatly. Nimmo will turn 30 on March 27 next year, which makes him on the younger end what’s typical for free agents. He’s also one of very few everyday center field options on the 2022-23 free agent market. Fellow free agent Kevin Kiermaier has an even longer list of injury troubles, with multiple surgeries on his track record — including a recent season-ending hip surgery from which he’s currently rehabbing. Enrique Hernandez could arguably be included as a true center field option, but he’s about to turn 31 and has hit .209/.273/.340 — his third well below-average offensive season in the past four years — in a year that has also seen him miss more than two months with a strained hip flexor.

Add up Nimmo’s production on a rate basis, his vastly improved defense in center, his age and the generally thin market for center-field help, and he probably has a stronger free-agent case than some would give him credit for. He placed as an honorable mention on MLBTR’s recently updated Free Agent Power Rankings, but Nimmo was No. 11 on our list, sitting just behind his teammate, Diaz.

Coming off a (so far) healthy and productive season, he should be in a good spot to cash in on a multi-year deal that’ll probably exceed the expectations of many onlookers. Nimmo likely didn’t hire the Boras Corporation back in January in hopes of negotiating a team-friendly extension, after all. The aforementioned Cain/Fowler contracts ($80MM and $82.5MM, respectively) figure to be benchmarks Nimmo’s camp will look to exceed.

Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha Test Positive For Covid-19

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Mets outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha are both out of the lineup and likely headed to the injured list after testing positive for Covid-19, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter link). Both players are asymptomatic. Newsday’s Tim Healey first reported this morning that tweets that a member of the Mets’ staff had tested positive and that a few players were deemed close contacts and undergoing testing.

Under the league’s 2022 health-and-safety protocols, players who test positive are subject to a 10-day absence from the club, though it’s possible to be reinstated in less time if the player has gone 24 or more hours without a fever, received a pair of negative PCR tests, and been given approval from a team physician and the MLB/MLBPA joint committee (a panel of one league-appointed and one union-appointed physician). Asymptomatic players are not subject to regular testing under the 2022 protocols, but it’s possible that Canha (who told reporters last year that he is vaccinated) and Nimmo were deemed close contacts of the staff member(s) in question.

With both Nimmo and Canha sidelined for at least the next few days, manager Buck Showalter tells reporters that outfielder Nick Plummer and infielder Matt Reynolds are with the team (Twitter link via Puma). Showalter also added that one member of his coaching staff tested positive (Twitter link via Healey).

Plummer is on the 40-man roster, but Reynolds was not previously on the 40-man. Neither Nimmo nor Canha will count against the 40-man roster while on the Covid-related injured list, however, making it easier to add Reynolds to the roster. The Mets have Jeff McNeil starting in left field, Travis Jankowski in center, Robinson Cano at second base and J.D. Davis at designated hitter today. Dominic Smith’s left-handed bat is somewhat surprisingly absent from the lineup against right-hander Zach Davies, but Showalter tells reporters that’s simply because he wanted to get Davis some at-bats amid a lengthy stretch of predominantly right-handed opponents (Twitter link via Puma).

Mets Have Not Engaged Brandon Nimmo In Extension Talks

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The Mets have not approached outfielder Brandon Nimmo about a potential extension, despite his apparent willingness to stay in New York, per Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Nimmo will reach free agency after this season, his age-29 season. Nimmo is an on-base machine when healthy, but he’s only once appeared in more than 100 games in a season.

It’s certainly possible that New York is ready to let Nimmo walk after the season. The Mets proved their willingness to take a hard line with departing free agents with Michael Conforto, Nimmo’s longtime running mate in the outfield. Conforto remains a free agent now.

Furthermore, this winter’s signings of Mark Canha and Starling Marte protect New York somewhat against Nimmo’s potential departure. Center fielders are in short supply leaguewide, which could make Nimmo an intriguing target despite his injury history. And the duo of Marte and Canha don’t perhaps carry enough glove to man the position full-time. But they ought to be enough to provide the Mets leverage in a potential Nimmo negotiation. According to Nimmo’s comments, however, that discussion is entirely hypothetical.

When healthy, Nimmo has been a first-class performer, posting a 135 wRC+ for his career and roughly 4.4 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. On the other hand, Nimmo’s never actually had 600 plate appearances in a season. Therein lies the issue facing the Mets in deciding whether or not to offer Nimmo a long-term deal.

Mets Notes: Scherzer, deGrom, Nimmo

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Max Scherzer is set to throw a bullpen session on Tuesday, Mets manager Buck Showalter told Newsday’s Tim Healey and other reporters.  Right hamstring tightness kept Scherzer out of a scheduled seven-inning intrasquad game on Saturday, which was supposed to be Scherzer’s last bit of spring work before the beginning of the regular season.

The ace has already tossed 11 Grapefruit League innings, so his arm might already be built up enough should he get through Tuesday’s bullpen without any ill effects.  It is also possible that the Mets might opt for some extra caution, and either push Scherzer’s first start back at least a few days, or maybe even sideline him with a backdated IL visit just to be completely sure that the 37-year-old is fully ready.

Scherzer’s health has taken on an greater import for the Mets in the wake of Friday’s news that Jacob deGrom will miss probably at least the first two months of the season after an MRI revealed a stress reaction in his right scapula.  The Mets begin play on April 7 with seven straight games (a four-game series against the Nationals and then a three-game series against the Phillies), so there aren’t any off-days to provide breathing room for the pitching staff.

DeGrom and Scherzer had been penciled in for the first two games of the schedule, with Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker then slated to follow in the rotation.  Rather than disrupt this planned routine, if Scherzer can’t pitch on April 7, any of Tyler Megill, David Peterson, or Trevor Williams could start the first two games, or New York could even opt for a bullpen game.  Of course, the Mets are also known to be on the lookout for more starting pitching help, so a new face might suddenly emerge to help fill out the rotation picture.

DeGrom met with reporters (including The New York Post’s Mike Puma) today to discuss his injury, and unsurprisingly, his “level of frustration is really high right now” over another lengthy stint on the injured list.  A forearm injury ended deGrom’s 2021 season on July 7, cutting short an incredible year that saw deGrom post an 1.08 ERA over 92 innings.

If there is any silver lining, deGrom is confident that his stress reaction won’t be a lingering problem: “Structurally everything looks fine, so once the bone heals then we’ll be ready to go and build up from there and hopefully be healthy for the rest of the year.”  As such, deGrom reiterated that he is still planning to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract after the season, and test the open market.

Most pitchers with this recent injury history would be more hesitant over walking away from a guaranteed $30.5MM in 2023, plus maybe another $32.5MM in 2024 via a Mets club option.  However, if deGrom is healthy and pitches like his usual self when he returns to the mound, he’ll surely land a more lucrative multi-year commitment.  As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal pointed out, $12MM of deGrom’s 2023 salary would also be deferred, so opting out would allow deGrom to land more up-front money in a new contract.

In other Mets contract news (or lack thereof), Puma reports that there hasn’t been any discussion between the club and Brandon Nimmo’s representatives about a contract extension.  Nimmo has stated multiple times that he would be interested in working out a long-term deal as he enters his final season before free agency.  In general, most players prefer to not let talks carry on beyond Opening Day, so there might not be a lot of time left for a deal to get done if Nimmo adheres to this rough deadline.

Nimmo has been one of baseball’s more quietly productive players in recent years, hitting .266/.393/.445 with 47 home runs over 1695 career PA.  This translates to a very impressive 131 OPS+ and 134 wRC+, but the key statistic might be the relatively small amount of plate appearances, as Nimmo has been beset by multiple injuries.  It could be that the Mets have held off on extension talks in order to see if Nimmo can finally put together a lengthy stretch of playing time in 2022, though if he does stay healthy, Nimmo might then be tempted to test the free agent market.

Mets Notes: Luxury Tax, deGrom, Hand, Kikuchi, Nimmo

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The new collective bargaining agreement included a new penalty tier for teams that exceed the luxury tax ($230MM this season) by more than $60MM.  This tier was almost immediately nicknamed “the Steve Cohen tax,” in regards to how the Mets owner has been willing to spend to the utmost on upgrades for his team’s roster.  Cohen himself isn’t too worried about either the new tax threshold or being personally attached to it by name, telling The New York Daily News’ Deesha Thosar and other reporters that “the way I describe it is, it’s better than a bridge being named after you or something like that.”

While $290MM+ is “still a lot of money to spend on a payroll, I don’t feel like it’s so confining that I can’t live with it,” Cohen said, noting that the Mets will indeed “probably” exceed the top tax threshold.  Roster Resource projects that the Mets are already around the $285.5MM mark for this season’s tax number, and with some needs still left to address on the roster, it isn’t any surprise that Cohen isn’t suddenly putting the brakes on spending.  Since the Mets didn’t exceed the tax threshold last season, they would be penalized at the “first-timer” rate of 80 percent on the overage of any dollar spent beyond $290MM, plus their top pick in the 2022 draft would be moved back 10 places.

More from Queens…

  • Mets GM Billy Eppler and manager Buck Showalter spoke with reporters (including Deesha Thosar and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) today, and the nature of those future roster reinforcements was one of the many topics discussed.  “I’d be fairly surprised if we went after another bat at this juncture,” Eppler said, as New York already added the likes of Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha prior the lockout.  Recent reports have suggested that, if anything, the Mets are trying to trade from their surplus of position players, with such names as J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, and Jeff McNeil rumored to be available.
  • Jacob deGrom’s health was a major question mark last season, though Eppler said that he doesn’t have any concerns about the ace after consulting with the Mets training and coaching staff.  Showalter added that deGrom has also already thrown off a mound.  Minor nagging injuries and then a forearm strain limited deGrom to only 92 innings in 2021, and he didn’t pitch after July 7.  There were some conflicting messages from team president Sandy Alderson, former manager Luis Rojas, former acting GM Zack Scott, and deGrom himself about the exact nature of the injury, which naturally led to speculation over the offseason about deGrom’s status heading into 2022, given the ominous nature of forearm-related injuries.
  • With left-handed bullpen help a need, “Brad Hand is on the Mets’ radar,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman writes.  Hand was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays in September and he posted a 2.70 ERA over his 13 1/3 innings in New York, righting the ship to some extent after a rough and brief stint in Toronto.  It was still a difficult season overall for Hand, who had a 3.90 ERA over 64 2/3 combined frames with the Nationals, Jays, and Mets, and posted his worst strikeout rate (21.9%) since 2015.
  • The Mets had some interest in Yusei Kikuchi but “didn’t get far down the road” with the left-hander before he signed with the Blue Jays, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets.
  • Brandon Nimmo reiterated his interest in an extension with the Mets, and told Anthony DiComo and other reporters that he would happy to negotiate with the club during Spring Training.  Nimmo scheduled to hit free agency after the 2022 season, and while the Mets haven’t yet approached him about a new deal, it could be that the front office is simply busy with the early flurry of transaction possibilities now that the lockout is over.

Showalter: Mets Not Ruling Out Possibility Of Adding To The Outfield

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The Mets were one of the league’s most active teams before the lockout, and a significant portion of their early-offseason work came in the outfield. Just hours after agreeing to terms with corner outfielder Mark Canha on a two-year deal, the Mets reached an accord with center fielder Starling Marte on a four-year pact.

Despite that ample activity, new manager Buck Showalter said he and general manager Billy Eppler haven’t ruled out the possibility of further additions. “[The outfield] is something we have talked about, where we are,” Showalter told reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) at New York’s minor league camp this afternoon. “We are on the same page with everything where that is concerned. It’s a scenario that we are examining to see if we feel comfortable with it. We’re always going to look within first.”

That’s obviously well short of a declaration that the Mets definitely will add outfield help whenever the transactions freeze concludes. Yet it’s notable they’re at least keeping that door open despite plenty of in-house options. Canha seems the presumptive favorite for work in left field, while Marte looks likely to play center field. That’d push Brandon Nimmo to right, although the Mets incumbent center fielder doesn’t seem enamored with that alignment.

Speaking with Tim Healey of Newsday this week, Nimmo suggested he’d prefer to remain in center field. The 28-year-old pointed out that public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average both graded him as a plus there last season. It was Nimmo’s best defensive performance in the estimation of those statistics, and a marked improvement over his -5 DRS and -4 OAA from 2020. Nimmo suggested that uptick is evidence that “if you give me information, if you allow me to make the adjustments, I will give it everything I got. I was very, very proud of the difference in the numbers from ’20 to ’21 and doing what they asked me to do and improving there.”

Nimmo, who is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility, also acknowledged to Healey that playing center field could be an added bonus as he’s on track to hit free agency next winter. The former first-round pick said he’d be open to discussing an extension with the Mets after the lockout but said the team and his representatives at the Boras Corporation hadn’t begun those discussions in the first stages of the offseason.

Whether the Mets will oblige Nimmo’s desire to stick in center, of course, remains an open question. He’d have little recourse other to play a corner outfield spot if the Mets penciled him into the lineup there, and he tells Healey he’s willing to do whatever the team asks anyhow. Yet it’s clear from his comments that Nimmo values the opportunity to continue playing up the middle, so Showalter and his staff will need to determine how they want to arrange that group on a regular basis. Marte was an excellent left fielder earlier in his career, but he’s not started a single game outside of center since 2017. There’s little doubt he could successfully readapt to a corner spot if necessary, but the Mets may prefer their defensive alignment with Marte up the middle and Nimmo in a corner.

As Showalter suggested today, there’s also the possibility of additional changes from a personnel perspective. New York could look into further free agent or trade pickups, although it seems likelier those would be of a depth variety given the moves they’ve already made. The Mets also have a trio of high-profile trade candidates with corner outfield experience. Each of Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith has played left or right field in years past. They’d presumably be options to see some time out there again, but the Mets could look to move one or more members of that group after the lockout.

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