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14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Mets Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Taijuan Walker

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The Mets have opted against issuing a $19.65MM qualifying offer to right-hander Taijuan Walker, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Walker, who made the easy decision to decline a $7.5MM player option earlier this week, will now reach free agency with no restrictions and will not be subject to draft-pick compensation. Unsurprisingly, Heyman adds that the Mets plan to make a QO to all three of Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Chris Bassitt.

Walker, who turned 30 in August, was a borderline candidate and might well have rejected his offer upon receiving one, though the Mets won’t find out and will instead accept the possibility of losing him for no compensation. As a luxury tax payor, they’ll “only” receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for any free agent who rejects a qualifying offer, and apparently the notion of potentially tying up $19.65MM in salary to Walker right out of the offseason gate wasn’t worth that fairly modest bit of compensation for GM Billy Eppler and his staff.

It’s great news for Walker, who’ll now head into free agency search of a multi-year deal that could span three or perhaps even four years in length. The former top prospect has shaken off many of the injury concerns that stemmed from Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery earlier in his career, making 69 of roughly 76 possible starts across the past three seasons. That includes 29 starts and more than 155 innings in each of the past two campaigns.

Since 2020, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged just about 5 1/3 innings per outing in that time, though that would seem to be more in an effort to monitor his workload than due to strong concerns about turning a lineup over for the third time. Since 2020, Walker has yielded a .232/.303/.391 batting line when facing opponents for the third time on a given day. While his numbers the first and second time through the order are better, it’s not the type of cringeworthy third-time split you’ll see with so many starting pitchers.

Walker’s fastball sat 93.8 mph in 2022, so he doesn’t have premium velocity. He doesn’t miss bats or generate grounders at an especially high level but also limits walks at a solid clip. He may not stand out in any one way, but he increasingly looks like a durable mid-rotation arm who could deepen nearly any starting staff in the Majors.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Mets Prioritizing Retaining Brandon Nimmo And Edwin Díaz

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The Mets have a huge batch of players departing their roster for free agency in the coming days, a list that includes Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin and almost the entire bullpen, including closer Edwin Díaz. That group is likely to be joined by Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, who all either have opt-outs they can trigger or options they can turn down. However, the Mets are most interested in retaining Díaz and Nimmo out of that group, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

The club’s interest in Nimmo is fairly understandable for a few reasons. For one thing, Nimmo is very good, having been above-average at the plate in each of the past six seasons. For his career, he’s gotten into 608 games and has walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances, much better than league average, producing an overall batting line of .269/.385/.441. That production is 34% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 134 wRC+, with Nimmo putting up the same number in 2022.

Nimmo is also a serviceable defender in center field, though defensive metrics disagree on exactly how effective he is on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -3 this year, but a +4 last year. Ultimate Zone Rating was at -0.4 in 2022 after giving Nimmo a 2.9 in 2021. Outs Above Average was the most optimistic, pegging him with a six this year and a three last year.

Perhaps most importantly, Nimmo stayed healthy this year, getting into 151 games in the regular season and three more in the playoffs. Health has often been a question mark around Nimmo, with 2022 being just the second time he’s gotten into more than 100 games in a campaign. However, he played 55 games in the shortened 2020 season and 92 last year, meaning he’s going into free agency on the heels of a fairly strong three-year stretch in the health department.

What also adds to Nimmo’s appeal is the fairly weak crop of free agent center fielders this year. Outside of Nimmo and Aaron Judge, who’s never been a full-time center fielder, the top option is probably the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays hold a club option for Kiermaier but are likely to turn it down given his down year and season-ending hip surgery. Cody Bellinger could join the market if the Dodgers decide to non-tender him, though the reason they might do that is because he’s hit so poorly over the past two years. Beyond that group, there aren’t a lot of realistic options who can be expected to secure everyday jobs. As the Mets watch Nimmo depart, the easiest path to filling his vacancy is to simply bring him back.

General manager Billy Eppler recently said that the club is open to moving Starling Marte from right to center, but also spoke highly of Nimmo. Given that Marte recently turned 34 and didn’t play much center this year, it would be a riskier move to ride with him as opposed to bringing Nimmo back. Of course, retaining Nimmo will mean beating the market and paying him to stick around. Given Nimmo’s talents and the dearth of more attractive options, he surely won’t be cheap.

As for Díaz, it’s fairly understandable that the club would want to retain him as well. He is one of seven relievers that the Mets are about to lose to the open market, meaning they will have to effectively rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Starting with arguably the best reliever on the planet is a good way to kick things off. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31 in 2022. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated.

Given that excellence, Díaz will also be looking at a nice payday on the open market. The record deal for a reliever is the five-year, $86MM deal signed by the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. Díaz has a compelling case that he’s currently as good as Chapman was then or perhaps even better. Since that contract is six years old at this point and inflation generally pushes contracts upwards over time, it’s entirely possible that Díaz sets a new record. Given that the Mets have so many holes to fill, there would be some sense in avoiding mega deals while spreading their money around, but there’s also no doubt that retaining Díaz adds a huge lockdown element to help them win close ballgames.

The fact that the Mets have set their targets on Nimmo and Díaz doesn’t necessarily mean that they are not interested in their other potential free agents, such as deGrom, Walker or Bassitt. Roster Resource estimates the 2023 payroll is around $231MM at the moment, though that will drop by about $40MM when deGrom and Walker trigger their opt-outs. Assuming the Mets pick up Carlos Carrasco’s $14MM club option instead of the $3MM buyout, that will add $11MM back on. Factoring in a couple of non-tenders and the club could be around $200MM, give or take. Owner Steve Cohen has hinted at a $300MM spending limit, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, which leaves plenty of room to make multiple signings if that’s the way the club wants to go. Of course, the players also have a say in the matter, as do the 29 other teams. The Mets will have many strands to follow this winter, even if Nimmo and Díaz are currently at the top of the agenda.

One other route the club has considered is bringing in another Díaz, as Martino reports that the Mets tried to acquire Alexis Díaz from the Reds at the deadline a few months back. Alexis is Edwin’s younger brother and Martino reports that the two are quite close. Seeing the two brothers form a fraternal one-two punch at the back of the bullpen would certainly be exciting, but prying him loose from Cincinnati won’t be easy. 2022 was his first season in the big leagues, meaning the Reds still have five seasons of control over his services, including two more campaigns before Alexis even qualifies for a salary raise via arbitration. The debut could hardly have gone much better, as he tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.84 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate, though his 12.9% walk rate was a few ticks above league average. He worked his way up the club’s depth chart as the season went on, earning 13 holds and 10 saves.

The Mets are reportedly hesitant to deal from their prospect depth at the moment, preferring to add to the big league team via free agency while they try to get their farm into good shape. That could make a deal unlikely to come together, though it adds another layer of intrigue to an offseason full of it.

Eppler: Mets Willing To Play Starling Marte In Center Field

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The Mets are facing a number of high-profile free agents as the offseason looms. Among them is center fielder Brandon Nimmo, who’s easily the best non-Aaron Judge free agent option at the position. Nimmo and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon hear from a number of interested teams, as they’re allowed to formally speak with clubs other than the Mets five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

New York will surely keep in touch with Nimmo themselves, but they do have a potential in-house replacement if he departs. Starling Marte had played exclusively center field with the D-Backs, Marlins and A’s from 2020-21, but he moved to right field in deference to Nimmo after signing a four-year free agent deal last offseason. Marte didn’t start a single game in center field in 2022, logging all of five innings at the position. He played just under 1000 innings in right field.

After spending a year playing in a corner and having recently turned 34 years old, it’s fair to wonder if Marte’s days as a regular center fielder could be behind him. Speaking with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on The Show podcast this morning (Twitter link), Mets general manager Billy Eppler said the team would be comfortable deploying Marte as their primary center fielder in 2023 if necessary.

“Can Starling still play center field? Yeah, we believe he can,” Eppler told the Post. “That opens up some optionality for how we ultimately fill out that outfield. … We do have the ability to slide Marte over to center for a number of games, over 50% of the games. He’s got that ability to do that. … We are comfortable with him in center field.”

That’s certainly not a declaration the Mets are closing the book on retaining Nimmo. Eppler called re-signing Nimmo “not a closed case by any stretch of the imagination” and broadly spoke highly of his ability. One can argue for the Mets bringing back Nimmo as the center fielder and a top-of-the-lineup presence while keeping Marte and Mark Canha in the corners. Yet as Eppler noted, the possibly for Marte to slide back up the middle offers some additional flexibility in building out the roster if Nimmo does depart.

Public defensive metrics were mixed on Marte’s performance in right field during his debut season in Queens. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as three runs better than the average right fielder. Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Runs Above Average metric each pegged him below par, with UZR assigning him a -8 mark and Statcast putting him at -2. Eppler didn’t address Marte’s defensive metrics specifically but noted the outfielder battled some tightness in his left groin midway through the season. That perhaps explains in part a dip in his range that shouldn’t linger into 2023 after an offseason of recovery. Marte had zero MLB experience in right field before 2022, but he’d been consistently excellent in the other corner spot throughout his career.

His recent center field work has been mixed but serviceable. Between 2020-21, Marte logged 1509 1/3 innings in center. Both Statcast and UZR rated him a hair better than average, while DRS had him at a below-average but not intolerable -6 runs over that stretch.

In any event, the Mets will have to add an outfielder this offseason. Retaining Nimmo and keeping Marte and Canha in the corners would be the most straightforward outcome. Still, a nine-figure Nimmo deal could be beyond their liking as they also see players like Jacob deGrom, Edwin Díaz, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker (the latter two of whom are locks to decline options) hit the market. New York has as much spending capacity as any team under owner Steve Cohen, but they’re virtually certain to see at least a couple players of note depart for loftier guarantees elsewhere.

If Nimmo is among that group, the Mets would have more to work with attacking the corner outfield market than adding a center fielder. Aside from Judge and Nimmo, the top free agent center fielder is likely Kevin Kiermaier, who’ll be bought out by the Rays after an injury-plagued year. A Cody Bellinger non-tender would add an excellent glove to the mix and vault him above Kiermaier as the #3 option, but Bellinger is a .193/.256/.355 hitter over his past 900 plate appearances. There also aren’t any clear upgrades who’ll be available in trade, with players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds looking unlikely to move.

The corner outfield market is a bit deeper. Judge is obviously the prize, but the middle tier of free agency offers options like Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Joey Gallo, Michael Brantley and old friend Michael Conforto. There’s also a wider pool of potential trade candidates, with Hunter Renfroe, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Max Kepler and Anthony Santander among those who could be floated in talks over the coming months.

NL West Notes: Nimmo, Rockies, Padres, Lawlar

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Brandon Nimmo is “on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list” heading into the offseason, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post.  Given how the Rockies somewhat unexpectedly splurged on Kris Bryant last winter, they shouldn’t be ruled out of making another splashy move, though it will indeed take a big commitment to win a bidding war for Nimmo’s services.  As observed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in his recent Rockies-focused Offseason Outlook entry, Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent (unless they created some payroll space with trades and non-tenders).  The Rockies might at least have a geographical advantage if Nimmo wants to play closer to home, as Denver is less than two hours away from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Signing Nimmo would immediately solidify the center field position for the Rockies, bring some left-handed balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and give the club some more offensive pop.  While Nimmo has had trouble staying off the injured list during his career, he has always been productive when healthy, and answered some questions about his durability by playing in 151 games with the Mets in 2022.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 over 673 plate appearances, with 16 homers and a league-best seven triples — his 134 wRC+ was higher than any Rockies player with at least 100 PA last season.

More from around the NL West…

  • The Padres surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, though it doesn’t seem like the team is planning to curb its spending any time soon.  “We’re good, and we have to protect that and enhance it,” club chairman Peter Seidler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune).  Naturally, neither Seidler or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave any concrete numbers about offseason spending plans, and Preller noted that the Padres have had the financial flexibility “for the things are going to come up through the season.  Sometimes that calls for players and free agency trades, players of different caliber and different dollar amounts.”  As Acee notes, San Diego already has around $187MM projected for next season’s payroll, and plenty of holes to fill on a roster that might lose some key players to free agency.
  • Diamondbacks star prospect Jordan Lawlar will need 6-8 weeks of recovery time after suffering a fractured left scapula last week during Arizona Fall League play.  A wayward pitch from Orioles prospect Nick Richmond “just hit [Lawlar] in the wrong spot,” D’Backs farm director Josh Barfield told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  However, Barfield said the injury won’t require surgery or be too much of a setback for Lawlar’s offseason prep, even though it will end Lawlar’s excellent AFL showing.  The sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Lawlar just turned 20 years old back in July but has already made his Double-A debut.  Assuming good health and continued progress, it might not be out of the question that Lawlar makes his Major League debut late in the 2023 season, though the Diamondbacks don’t want to rush things with a player who has only 102 total minor league games on his resume.

Mets Notes: Nimmo, deGrom, Eppler, Showalter

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Brandon Nimmo is heading into free agency on a high note, having just had arguably the best season of his career. He hit 16 home runs in 151 games and produced an overall batting line of .274/.367/.433. That production was 34% better than the league average hitter, as measured by wRC+. When combined with some strong work in the outfield, he produced 5.4 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, eclipsing his previous high of 4.8.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently spoke to Scott Boras, who is Nimmo’s agent, with Boras highlighting that this winter’s free agent class is low on impact center fielders and leadoff hitters. Looking at the list of available free agents, Boras has a point. Aaron Judge played some center this year but is primarily a right fielder. Beyond him and Nimmo, the other options are mostly bench/depth types, with the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier perhaps the only thing approaching a plausible regular up the middle.

Sherman compares Nimmo to Starling Marte and the $78MM contract he got from the Mets but opines that Nimmo has a chance to double that. There are certainly reasons to think free agency will be kinder to Nimmo than it was to Marte, with age being a significant separator. Marte was 33 years old at the time his deal was signed, whereas Nimmo won’t turn 30 until March. Given that three-year gap, Nimmo could try to try to push for a lengthier deal than the four years that Marte secured. Marte was coming off a remarkably similar walk year, as he posted a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR in 2021. He didn’t have a qualifying offer attached since he was traded midseason, something Nimmo will be saddled with. But there won’t be a lockout this winter to complicate matters and the CBT barriers have all moved higher since then. Combining those factors with the fact that teams are further removed from pandemic losses and the spending environment might be generally more robust than it was in November of 2021, when Marte was signed.

Whether the Mets will be in the Nimmo sweepstakes remains to be seen, but there is an argument to be made for them letting him walk. They could theoretically slide Marte over to center field and focus their resources on a pitching staff that is set for a huge amount of turnover. The Mets have about a dozen hurlers who could reach the open market in the coming weeks, depending on the outcome of some options and opt-outs. Of course, the biggest elephant in the room is Jacob deGrom, who has the ability to opt out of the remainder of his contract in a few weeks. deGrom has been clear about his intention to trigger that opt out, even while he was dealing with the uncertainty of his injured shoulder earlier this year.

Once he reaches free agency, his market will be a difficult one to predict. He has been one of the best pitchers in the game when healthy but hasn’t managed a full season since 2019. The pandemic limited him to just 12 starts in 2020 and then injuries kept him at 15 starts last year and 11 here in 2022. He’s still been excellent when on the mound though, posting a 2.05 ERA over 224 1/3 innings in that three-year stretch, along with a 42.1% ground ball rate, 42.4% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate.

Given his excellent quality but diminished quantity in recent years, there is likely to be a wide variance in how different teams will value his potential contributions going forward. For his part, it’s possible that deGrom isn’t particularly focused on strictly maximizing his earnings, with Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic reporting that the righty will also be looking for comfort, preferring to be closer to his Florida home.

It might be difficult for deGrom to get exactly what he wants in that regard, as the two clubs based in his home state aren’t big spenders. The Marlins have been clearing their payroll in the recent past and then focused on adding offense when they finally did make some recent additions. Jorge Soler’s $15MM salary will be the largest contract on the books next year and it would certainly come as a shock to see them more than double that figure to land deGrom, especially when they have so much starting pitching that they are planning to use it to trade for bats. The Rays have never been huge players in free agency and have a massive 19-player arbitration class. That’s likely going to lead them down a path of making tough cuts around the fringes of their roster, even without adding a marquee free agent expenditure.

Moving outside the state, the nearest team to Florida can be found in Atlanta. They have also been the destination of a pitcher with similar geographic preferences, as Charlie Morton continues to re-up with the club in order to be near his own Florida home. deGrom would surely be a welcome addition to any club from a pure baseball perspective, but there are reasons to think Atlanta isn’t a perfect fit. In addition to Morton, the club also has Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider penciled into their rotation for next year. Jake Odorizzi will likely exercise his player option and take a spot at the back end, something the club surely anticipated when they traded for him at the deadline.

Adding deGrom and then trading Odorizzi would be an attractive way to get around the crowded rotation, though that would come with financial complications. Atlanta ran out a franchise-record Opening Day payroll of $178MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, way beyond the previous high of $131MM from the year before. They already have about $154MM committed for next year, without factoring in arbitration raises for players like Fried. Whatever budget they have left over might need to be earmarked for shortstop, since Dansby Swanson is slated for free agency. Even if the club is willing to let Swanson walk and stick with Vaughn Grissom at short, despite Grissom having only 41 games played above Double-A, signing deGrom would require the club to stretch it’s financial comfort zone even farther.

If deGrom considers Texas to be comfortably close to Florida, there would be a sensible fit on the Rangers. The club was very aggressive in free agency a year ago but still had another disappointing campaign in terms of results. They reportedly plan on being aggressive yet again this winter, with a stronger focus on starting pitching this time around. However, the Rangers arguably only have two rotation spots spoken for, with Jon Gray and Dane Dunning the only ones who can be reliably counted on. It might be wiser of them to spread their money around to multiple pitchers as opposed to focusing on one elite arm like deGrom, even if they succeed in re-signing Martín Pérez. It’s also unknown how deGrom’s reported desire to be near his family would be balanced against a natural desire to suit up for a surefire competitor.

Of course, the Mets will surely hope to overcome whatever obstacles come up this winter and bring deGrom back to Queens, but they will also have other matters to attend to. Beyond Nimmo and deGrom, it will be a fascinating offseason for the Mets, as their other free agents or potential free agents are Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Joely Rodriguez, Daniel Vogelbach, John Curtiss, Edwin Diaz, Tyler Naquin, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams. It’s anyone’s guess what the roster looks like a few months from now, but it seems there will at least be continuity off the field. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that both manager Buck Showalter and general manager Billy Eppler are secure in their respective jobs. It was the first season with the Mets for both, as Eppler was hired in November of last year and he then brought Showalter aboard during the lockout. Despite a disappointing playoff loss to end the campaign, the Mets still went 101-61, their best record since 1986. They will look to repeat or top that performance in 2023, though the first order of business will be filling the large number of holes on the roster that are about to open.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting The NL East Winner

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As the regular season nears its conclusion, the playoff picture has mostly come into focus. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, 10 have a cushion of at least 4 1/2 games. The Padres and Phillies are working to hold off the Brewers for the final two Wild Card spots in the National League, but the rest of the teams currently in playoff position have put themselves in a great spot to reach the postseason barring a major collapse. There’s an outside shot the White Sox track down the Guardians in the AL Central or the Orioles get back into the AL Wild Card race, but it’d take a major turn of events over the next two weeks.

There’s a similar lack of intrigue in most of the division races. The Astros and Dodgers have already clinched their respective divisions. The Yankees, Guardians and Cardinals all hold leads of six-plus games in theirs. The only division race that promises plenty of intrigue down the stretch: the battle for the NL East.

Both the Mets and Braves are already guaranteed to make the postseason. They’re each likely to surpass 100 wins. Yet one of those teams will come up just shy of a division title, leaving them as the #4 seed in the National League. That means a three-game series against the #5 seed in a first-round Wild Card set under the playoff format introduced in this spring’s collective bargaining agreement. Obviously, both teams would much prefer to secure the division title (and almost certainly the NL’s #2 seed and accompanying first-round bye). Which one is the frontrunner for the division crown? Let’s take a look at the remaining road for each and their current health outlook.

Mets (95-56 record, +147 run differential)

Remaining schedule: at Oakland (three games), vs. Miami (two games), at Atlanta (three games), vs. Washington (three games)

The Mets have 11 games remaining. Eight of them are against teams 28 games or more below .500. The other three: a crucial series next weekend in Atlanta. New York welcomed back Max Scherzer from a brief injured list stint on Monday. He came out with six perfect innings against the Brewers, striking out nine, before being lifted due to a pitch count limitation. The Mets rotation is at full strength at the right time, pushing players like Tylor Megill and David Peterson into the bullpen.

The biggest current injury for the Mets is on the position player side. Right fielder Starling Marte has yet to return after suffering a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger two weeks back. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon that the All-Star outfielder is hopeful he’ll be back in time for next weekend’s series with the Braves. Center fielder Brandon Nimmo, meanwhile, left today’s game with left quad soreness. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that he’s likely to go for imaging tomorrow but Nimmo downplayed the severity of the issue postgame.

Braves (93-56 record, +171 run differential)

Remaining schedule: at Philadelphia (four games), at Washington (three games), vs. Mets (three games), at Miami (three games)

The defending champions dug themselves an early hole with a mediocre first two months, but they’ve been incredible since the calendar flipped to June. They’re a staggering 70-28 over the past three and a half months, nearly erasing a deficit that was once as high as 10 1/2 games in the process. They’ve pulled even with the Mets in the loss column but have two fewer wins, leaving them with a bit more work to do to get ahead in the standings.

The Braves kick off a four-game set with the Phillies tomorrow. That’s a much more difficult series than any the Mets will play (aside from the Braves themselves), but Atlanta just swept Philly last weekend.

Like the Mets, Atlanta doesn’t have any key starting pitchers currently on the injured list. Rookie star Spencer Strider is battling some oblique soreness and had today’s scheduled start pushed back slightly, but there’s no indication an IL stint is currently under consideration. As with New York, Atlanta is down one star position player thanks to a fractured finger though. The Braves lost Ozzie Albies to a right pinky fracture over the weekend. There’s a chance he returns in the postseason but he’s not expected back before the end of the regular season. Rookie Vaughn Grissom filled in well in recent weeks while Albies was rehabbing a broken foot; he’ll be asked to do the same for the stretch run.

Tiebreaker procedure

The final three games between the Mets and Braves obviously loom as the largest remaining on the schedule for both clubs. Not only are they the most directly impactful in the standings, they also carry implications for the tiebreaker. The new CBA did away with the traditional Game 163 in favor of a tiebreaker system. If two clubs finish the season with the same record, the team with the better head-to-head mark gets the nod in the standings. The Mets lead this year’s season series 9-7, meaning Atlanta would need to sweep their final meeting to secure the tiebreaker.

How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out? Which team will celebrate an NL East crown two weeks from now?

(poll link for app users)

Which Team Will Win The NL East?
Mets 53.21% (6,340 votes)
Braves 46.79% (5,574 votes)
Total Votes: 11,914

 

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

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The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

Mets Hoping To Retain Brandon Nimmo

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The Mets’ roster is facing a good bit of potential turnover this winter, with Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Chris Bassitt, Brandon Nimmo, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo and Trevor May among the many names able to reach free agency. DeGrom has an opt-out he’s said he plans to exercise even after missing time due to injury. Bassitt has a mutual option, which are very rarely exercised by both parties. Walker has a player option he should be able to easily surpass on the open market.

The 29-year-old Nimmo (30 next March) is a pure free agent at season’s end, but he tells Mike Puma of the New York Post that the Mets informed him as recently as the All-Star break that they’re hopeful of retaining him beyond the current season. There’s no indication the two have engaged in meaningful extension talks, but teams have a five-day exclusive negotiating window with their own free agents following the conclusion of the World Series. Failing to reach a new deal in that window — or sooner, as nothing’s technically preventing the two sides from speaking now — will prompt the team to make a decision on a potential qualifying offer for Nimmo.

Nimmo is a somewhat under-the-radar QO candidate, even with the hefty price point somewhere in the $18-19MM range. He’s been a bargain playing on a $7MM salary this season, hitting .269/.355/.421 with 10 homers, 21 doubles, five triples and anywhere from average to plus defensive marks in center field (-1 DRS, 2.7 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average). Opinions on the overall quality of his glovework may vary, but Nimmo has at the very least made himself into a passable defender who’s nowhere near the liability in center field he was just a few years ago.

On a rate basis, Nimmo has quietly been one of the league’s most-productive offensive players over the past several years. Dating back to 2018, he’s a .267/.387/.448 hitter in 1861 plate appearances. Out of 295 qualified hitters in that time, he’s tied with Mookie Betts and Alex Bregman for the sixth-best on-base percentage in baseball, and he has the game’s 15th-highest walk rate (13.7%). Nimmo’s brand of OBP-driven value at the plate may not hold the same appeal to fans as that of a prototypical .290-.310 hitter or 30-homer slugger, but it’s one that MLB front offices have proven to value nonetheless — particularly in center field, a premium position on the defensive spectrum (see: Dexter Fowler, Lorenzo Cain). By measure of wRC+, Nimmo has been 36% better than league average at the plate since 2018.

The elephant in the room, of course, is the necessity of specifying “on a rate basis.” Nimmo is a very good or even great offensive contributor when he’s been on the field … but health issues have hampered him immensely throughout the years. In his Major League career, Nimmo has been on the injured list for a hamstring strain, a partially collapsed lung, a finger contusion, a neck injury (which kept him out more than three months), a bone bruise in his hand and another hamstring strain. Even prior to his MLB days, Nimmo suffered a torn ACL (playing high school football), a strain in his other ACL (in the minors) and a torn tendon in his left foot. It is a long list of injuries. Since 2018, he’s played in 69.7% of possible games with the Mets.

Notably, Nimmo has been healthy for the bulk of the 2022 season. He spent four days on the Covid-related injured list earlier this season but has otherwise been a mainstay in the lineup and in center field. His walk rate is “down” to 9.1% (still above the league average), but he’s also striking out in a career-low 16.7% of his plate appearances.

When looking at a player’s free agency, age and market context also matter greatly. Nimmo will turn 30 on March 27 next year, which makes him on the younger end what’s typical for free agents. He’s also one of very few everyday center field options on the 2022-23 free agent market. Fellow free agent Kevin Kiermaier has an even longer list of injury troubles, with multiple surgeries on his track record — including a recent season-ending hip surgery from which he’s currently rehabbing. Enrique Hernandez could arguably be included as a true center field option, but he’s about to turn 31 and has hit .209/.273/.340 — his third well below-average offensive season in the past four years — in a year that has also seen him miss more than two months with a strained hip flexor.

Add up Nimmo’s production on a rate basis, his vastly improved defense in center, his age and the generally thin market for center-field help, and he probably has a stronger free-agent case than some would give him credit for. He placed as an honorable mention on MLBTR’s recently updated Free Agent Power Rankings, but Nimmo was No. 11 on our list, sitting just behind his teammate, Diaz.

Coming off a (so far) healthy and productive season, he should be in a good spot to cash in on a multi-year deal that’ll probably exceed the expectations of many onlookers. Nimmo likely didn’t hire the Boras Corporation back in January in hopes of negotiating a team-friendly extension, after all. The aforementioned Cain/Fowler contracts ($80MM and $82.5MM, respectively) figure to be benchmarks Nimmo’s camp will look to exceed.

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