Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Brandon Nimmo

Rays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

By | at

In a market thin on center field help, Brandon Nimmo has naturally drawn a lot of interest on the free agent market.  Many of baseball’s bigger spenders have been linked to the former Mets standout, but according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the low-payroll Rays are also a rather surprising suitor for Nimmo’s services.

MLBTR projected Nimmo for a five-year, $110MM deal this winter, which would represent far and away the largest contract the Rays have even given to a free agent.  It would also represent the franchise’s second-largest expenditure on any contract, behind only Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension.  Since Nimmo rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, Tampa Bay would also have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder — no small penalty for a club that relies on building from within.

In short, it would count as a real stunner if the Rays won the bidding for one of the winter’s most sought-after free agents.  However, it is worth noting that we’re only about a year removed from the Rays’ reported offer to Freddie Freeman, another big-ticket name on the open market.  Between the Freeman offer and the Franco extension, there have been some hints out of Tampa Bay that the Rays are prepared to stretch their budget (by their standards) in order to capture that elusive championship.  The Rays have reached the postseason in each of the last four years and made it as far as the World Series in 2020, but fell short to the Dodgers in six games.

Assuming Nimmo did sign for around $22MM in average annual value, such a deal would take Tampa Bay’s payroll into a new stratosphere, though the team has already broken some of their own financial benchmarks.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2022 was just shy of $83.9MM, a new club record.  Roster Resource projects Tampa for a 2023 payroll of roughly $67.7MM, and that number includes the projected salaries of a still-large class of arbitration-eligible players.

The Rays have already parted ways with some arb-eligibles (i.e. Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Yarbrough) to save some dollars, and any number of other creative trades could still be possible to further shed payroll.  Tampa could continue to shop more members of their arbitration class, or the team could look into moving players on guaranteed contracts.  Franco isn’t going anywhere, but any of Manuel Margot, Brooks Raley, Tyler Glasnow, or even Brandon Lowe could be plausible trade chips.

Moving an established player to bring in a more expensive player like Nimmo would be an uncharacteristic move for the Rays, yet it could make sense in this circumstance.  Nimmo would essentially be Margot’s replacement in the outfield, and Raley or Glasnow could be replaced by one of the many young arms from Tampa’s seemingly endless pitching pipeline.  The Rays already did well without Lowe for much of the 2022 season, as Lowe played in only 65 games due to ongoing back problems.  If Lowe was traded, the Rays could rely on some combination of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, or Vidal Brujan at second base, as they did last season.  Plus, top prospect Curtis Mead is waiting in the wings for his Major League debut.

The Rays relied on their pitching and defense to win 86 games and claim a Wild Card berth last season, but Nimmo’s bat would greatly help a lackluster offense.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs over 673 plate appearances last season, which translated to a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR.  No Rays position player in 2022 had a higher fWAR than Yandy Diaz’s 3.8 number, and only Diaz (146) had a better wRC+.  The left-handed hitting Nimmo even helps from a lineup balance perspective, since Tampa’s lineup is mostly right-handed.

An argument can be made that if the Rays were going to splurge on a player, it should be for someone without Nimmo’s checkered injury history.  There is some irony in Tampa Bay pursuing an oft-injured center fielder just as Kevin Kiermaier is finally off the team’s books.  Kiermaier’s six-year, $53.5MM extension was also one of the larger deals in Rays history, and while Kiermaier was only rarely in Nimmo’s league as a hitter, Kiermaier was one of the league’s best fielders at any position when he was healthy enough to stay on the field.  The public metrics are a little more mixed on Nimmo’s work in center field, though Tampa could use him in any of the three outfield positions, since Jose Siri is on hand to play center.

Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets

By | at

The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets.  In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player.  As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere.  For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract.  Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts).  Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix.  DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place.  However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players.  Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon.  While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold.  Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five.  Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues.  Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger

By | at

The Giants have been frequently speculated as a fit for Aaron Judge, but their offseason won’t entirely revolve around him. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club will be looking for two outfielders this winter and have checked in on both Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

What sets Nimmo and Bellinger apart from most of the other free agent outfielders is the ability to play a competent center field. As noted by Slusser, the Giants’ outfield defense graded out poorly in 2022. The club used a hodgepodge of different options throughout the year, including Steven Duggar, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González, Jason Krizan, Stuart Fairchild, Joc Pederson, Bryce Johnson and Lewis Brinson. Defensive Runs Saved pegged them at -44, easily the worst in baseball with the Pirates next on the list at -33. Outs Above Average gave them a -25, tied with the Phillies for last. Only Ultimate Zone Rating was gentler, as their -21.8 in that category was 29th, edging out the White Sox. That’s a pretty unanimous assessment that says this is an area the club can upgrade, and having a reliable guy to pencil in there every day would certainly be appealing.

There are a handful of players who can provide help with the defensive side of things, such as Brinson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brett Phillips, Bradley Zimmer, but they would likely be liabilities at the plate. Nimmo and Bellinger, however, have the potential to provide on both sides of the ball, though Bellinger’s offensive performance has been in quite an extended rut. Ever since injuring his shoulder during an ill-advised celebration in the 2020 postseason, he’s seemed lost at the plate. He mashed his way to MVP honors in 2019 by hitting 47 home runs and batting .305/.406/.629. His production slipped a bit in 2020 before he hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022 combined.

Whether he can get his offense back on track will be a key question, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his speed and defense. He was considered league average by DRS and UZR in 2022 while OAA was more enthused, giving him a mark of six for the year. He also swiped 14 bags this season, allowing him to be worth 1.7 fWAR despite the tepid work with the bat. Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said that the outfielder will be looking for a one-year deal and it’s perhaps worth noting that this situation is at least mildly reminiscent of Carlos Rodón one year ago. Both players are represented by Boras and were entering free agency as talented players but with question marks about their consistency. The Giants and Rodón agreed to a two-year deal but with the southpaw afforded an opt-out to return to the open market after one season. Bellinger is apparently just looking for a straight one-year pact but perhaps the Giants will be the ones to step up and make that happen.

Nimmo’s case is less mysterious, at least in terms of his offense. He’s been fairly consistent at the plate, having an OBP of at least .367 in six straight seasons while keeping his wRC+ at 134 or higher over the past three. He had some durability concerns earlier in his career but has only had one significant injury absence over the past three years, which was due to a finger contusion in 2021. The defensive reviews are mixed, with both DRS and UZR giving him a negative number in 2020 and 2022 but a positive mark in 2021. OAA went negative in 2020 but has been positive the past two seasons. Wobbles from year to year with defensive metrics aren’t unheard of and it seems fair to expect Nimmo to provide at least average-ish glovework up the middle.

The problem with that stronger profile in recent seasons is that he will certainly cost much more than Bellinger. MLBTR projected him for $110MM over five years, or $22MM per season. Their payroll is currently around $133MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure and their franchise record of $200MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but that doesn’t mean they will do everything they set their sights on. Given that the Giants have also expressed an interest in Judge, the top free agent shortstops and retaining Rodón, adding multiple nine-figure contracts is a bit tough to see. Then again, if the Giants end up missing on a few of their other targets, they should have plenty of payroll space to work with.

Whether they prioritize Nimmo or Bellinger, they will have competition. The Blue Jays are known to be interested in both Nimmo and Bellinger, while the Mets would like to bring Nimmo back to Queens.

Blue Jays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

By | at

The Blue Jays subtracted from their outfield mix earlier today when they dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. In the wake of that deal, they are now showing interest in adding free agent Brandon Nimmo, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins spoke with members of the media on a conference call after the deal and, though he didn’t mention Nimmo by name, nothing he said would seem to preclude the club from such a bold move. “We’re in a better position to do so now from a resource and from a playing time and recruitment standpoint,” Atkins tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on the subject of adding a free agent outfielder. One option that’s on the table is acquiring a center fielder and pushing George Springer over the now-vacated right field position. “I know George will be open to it,” Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

If the Blue Jays are indeed interested in adding a free agent center fielder, they could hardly do better than Nimmo. Excluding Aaron Judge since he’s more of a right fielder, Nimmo is the clear top option available on the center field market. Then it’s a steep drop down to the next tier, consisting of veterans coming off injury-plagued seasons such as Kevin Kiermaier and Adam Duvall.

Having spent his entire career with the Mets thus far, Nimmo is a quality hitter, primarily for his ability to get on base. His career walk rate is 13.6%, well above the 2022 league average of 8.2%. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .269/.385/.441 for a wRC+ of 134, indicating he’s been 34% above league average in his time in the majors. He’s also been generally regarded as a quality outfielder, though perhaps not elite. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a 5 last year but a -3 in 2022. Ultimate Zone Rating had him at 3.4 in 2021 but -0.4 this year. Outs Above Average, however, had him at a 3 last year and a 6 this year.

Given that excellent production and his ability to also play the corners, Nimmo would likely be able to upgrade the outfield of the majority of teams around the league. It’s possible that Nimmo’s left-handed bat makes him extra appealing to the Blue Jays given their lineup is predominantly right-handed, though that wasn’t really a problem for them in 2022. Against right-handed pitching this year, the club collectively hit .266/.329/.432. That amounts to a 118 wRC+, indicating they were 18% above league average. Only the Dodgers at 122 wRC+ and Mets at 119 wRC+ were better against northpaws, which doesn’t suggest the club needs to make a left-handed bat a specific target.

Regardless, there’s an argument to moving Springer out of center field and into a corner, where the rigors of the position are generally agreed to be lesser. Springer is now 33, more than three years older than Nimmo, who is 29 and turning 30 in March. He’s also dealt with his fair share of injuries since joining the Blue Jays, only getting into 211 total games over the past two years. He’ll recovering from elbow surgery this offseason but is expected to be recovered in time for Spring Training. The advanced defensive metrics have him hovering around average in recent years, not terribly dissimilar to Nimmo. Of course, Nimmo has also dealt with injuries throughout his career, but his only significant absence of the past three seasons was a two-month stay on the IL in 2021 due to a left index finger contusion.

Since the Blue Jays aren’t the only team that could benefit from Nimmo’s skills, they will have competition and he won’t be cheap. The Mets are already known to be interested in bringing him back to Queens. MLBTR recently predicted a contract of $110MM over five years, which works out to $22MM per season. After today’s trade, Roster Resource puts Toronto’s 2023 payroll at $176MM. That means they’re already on track for an increase over last year’s franchise record Opening Day figure of $171MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A few non-tenders could bump that down a hair but it still means that the club will have to spend into uncharted territory, or make a sizable subtraction, to make a significant free agent splash. Though they upgraded their bullpen today by acquiring Erik Swanson, they likely still need to do some work on the rotation as well. Regardless of where the final number ends up, Atkins seems to think they have the funds necessary to address their needs. He told Nicholson-Smith that today’s trade added payroll flexibility but “we didn’t need it.”

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

By and | at

Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

By | at

14 players received qualifying offers this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The list is as follows:

As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer a team can make to impending free agents. Players who have previously received a QO in their careers and/or didn’t spend the entire preceding season with one team cannot receive a qualifying offer. The value of the offer is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in MLB. For the 2022-23 offseason, it is set at $19.65MM.

If a player accepts the QO, he returns to his current team for next season on that salary. If he declines, the team would receive compensation if he were to sign elsewhere. The specific compensation depends on the team’s status as both a luxury tax payor and whether they receive revenue sharing payments. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at the compensation each team would receive for losing a qualified free agent last week.

Signing a player who refuses a QO from another team requires the signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space. As with compensation for losing qualified free agents, the specific nature of the forfeiture is dependent on revenue sharing status and the competitive balance tax.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

The majority of players who receive qualifying offers decline them each offseason. Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, deGrom, Swanson, Rodón, Nimmo, Contreras and Bassitt were always virtual locks to receive a QO. They’ll assuredly turn them down and sign multi-year contracts, either with their incumbent teams or other clubs. Rejecting a qualifying offer, to be clear, does not affect a player’s ability to continue negotiating with his previous team.

Rizzo, Anderson and Pérez were all more borderline QO candidates, although reports in recent days had suggested each was likely to receive the offer. There’s a case for all three players in that group to accept, although their representatives will have five days to gauge the market before making that decision. Pérez has reportedly received a two-year offer from Texas. The sides have long expressed mutual interest in agreement, but they’ve yet to come to terms on a longer deal.

The final two qualified free agents come as more surprising developments. Eovaldi always looked like a borderline QO candidate. He recently wrapped up a four-year, $68MM contract with the Red Sox. The right-hander was generally effective over the life of that deal, but his 2022 campaign was more of a mixed bag. Shoulder and back injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings. His 3.87 ERA over that stretch was right in line with his 2020-21 marks, but his strikeout rate dropped a few points to a league average 22.4%. Eovaldi’s fastball also dipped slightly from siting just under 97 MPH down to 95.7 MPH, but that’s still plenty impressive velocity. Paired with his elite strike-throwing ability and the Red Sox’s need for rotation help, they’d be content to bring the 32-year-old back for just under $20MM if he accepted the QO.

The most surprising qualifying offer recipient, however, is Pederson. San Francisco signed the outfielder to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter after an up-and-down 2021 campaign with the Cubs and Braves. The left-handed slugger responded with an excellent .274/.353/.521 showing, connecting on 23 home runs in 433 plate appearances. Pederson also posted elite batted ball marks, including a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity that’s around five MPH above league average. He also made hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) on a career-best 52.1% of his balls in play.

That figured to give 30-year-old a strong shot at a multi-year offer, although it’s still surprising to see the Giants offer him nearly $20MM to return. Pederson played left field in Oracle Park, but he rated as 12 runs below average over 685 innings in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. He’s consistently posted subpar defensive marks and is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter. The Giants also shielded him against southpaws, limping him to 57 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

Some notable players who were eligible for a qualifying offer but did not receive one include Jameson Taillon, Mitch Haniger, Taijuan Walker, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha. That group will all hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick compensation, which should be a boost to their free agent stocks.

Of the crop of QO recipients, Pederson looks likeliest to accept, although it’s possible that anyone in the group turns the offer down if their reps find interest over multi-year pacts. Players have until the evening of November 15 to determine whether to accept or turn down the QO.

Mets Will Not Make Qualifying Offer To Taijuan Walker

By | at

The Mets have opted against issuing a $19.65MM qualifying offer to right-hander Taijuan Walker, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Walker, who made the easy decision to decline a $7.5MM player option earlier this week, will now reach free agency with no restrictions and will not be subject to draft-pick compensation. Unsurprisingly, Heyman adds that the Mets plan to make a QO to all three of Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo and Chris Bassitt.

Walker, who turned 30 in August, was a borderline candidate and might well have rejected his offer upon receiving one, though the Mets won’t find out and will instead accept the possibility of losing him for no compensation. As a luxury tax payor, they’ll “only” receive a pick between the fourth and fifth round for any free agent who rejects a qualifying offer, and apparently the notion of potentially tying up $19.65MM in salary to Walker right out of the offseason gate wasn’t worth that fairly modest bit of compensation for GM Billy Eppler and his staff.

It’s great news for Walker, who’ll now head into free agency search of a multi-year deal that could span three or perhaps even four years in length. The former top prospect has shaken off many of the injury concerns that stemmed from Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery earlier in his career, making 69 of roughly 76 possible starts across the past three seasons. That includes 29 starts and more than 155 innings in each of the past two campaigns.

Since 2020, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and a 43.2% ground-ball rate. He’s averaged just about 5 1/3 innings per outing in that time, though that would seem to be more in an effort to monitor his workload than due to strong concerns about turning a lineup over for the third time. Since 2020, Walker has yielded a .232/.303/.391 batting line when facing opponents for the third time on a given day. While his numbers the first and second time through the order are better, it’s not the type of cringeworthy third-time split you’ll see with so many starting pitchers.

Walker’s fastball sat 93.8 mph in 2022, so he doesn’t have premium velocity. He doesn’t miss bats or generate grounders at an especially high level but also limits walks at a solid clip. He may not stand out in any one way, but he increasingly looks like a durable mid-rotation arm who could deepen nearly any starting staff in the Majors.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

By | at

The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Mets Prioritizing Retaining Brandon Nimmo And Edwin Díaz

By | at

The Mets have a huge batch of players departing their roster for free agency in the coming days, a list that includes Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin and almost the entire bullpen, including closer Edwin Díaz. That group is likely to be joined by Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, who all either have opt-outs they can trigger or options they can turn down. However, the Mets are most interested in retaining Díaz and Nimmo out of that group, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

The club’s interest in Nimmo is fairly understandable for a few reasons. For one thing, Nimmo is very good, having been above-average at the plate in each of the past six seasons. For his career, he’s gotten into 608 games and has walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances, much better than league average, producing an overall batting line of .269/.385/.441. That production is 34% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 134 wRC+, with Nimmo putting up the same number in 2022.

Nimmo is also a serviceable defender in center field, though defensive metrics disagree on exactly how effective he is on the grass. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a -3 this year, but a +4 last year. Ultimate Zone Rating was at -0.4 in 2022 after giving Nimmo a 2.9 in 2021. Outs Above Average was the most optimistic, pegging him with a six this year and a three last year.

Perhaps most importantly, Nimmo stayed healthy this year, getting into 151 games in the regular season and three more in the playoffs. Health has often been a question mark around Nimmo, with 2022 being just the second time he’s gotten into more than 100 games in a campaign. However, he played 55 games in the shortened 2020 season and 92 last year, meaning he’s going into free agency on the heels of a fairly strong three-year stretch in the health department.

What also adds to Nimmo’s appeal is the fairly weak crop of free agent center fielders this year. Outside of Nimmo and Aaron Judge, who’s never been a full-time center fielder, the top option is probably the oft-injured Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays hold a club option for Kiermaier but are likely to turn it down given his down year and season-ending hip surgery. Cody Bellinger could join the market if the Dodgers decide to non-tender him, though the reason they might do that is because he’s hit so poorly over the past two years. Beyond that group, there aren’t a lot of realistic options who can be expected to secure everyday jobs. As the Mets watch Nimmo depart, the easiest path to filling his vacancy is to simply bring him back.

General manager Billy Eppler recently said that the club is open to moving Starling Marte from right to center, but also spoke highly of Nimmo. Given that Marte recently turned 34 and didn’t play much center this year, it would be a riskier move to ride with him as opposed to bringing Nimmo back. Of course, retaining Nimmo will mean beating the market and paying him to stick around. Given Nimmo’s talents and the dearth of more attractive options, he surely won’t be cheap.

As for Díaz, it’s fairly understandable that the club would want to retain him as well. He is one of seven relievers that the Mets are about to lose to the open market, meaning they will have to effectively rebuild their entire bullpen from scratch this winter. Starting with arguably the best reliever on the planet is a good way to kick things off. He pitched 62 innings with a tiny ERA of 1.31 in 2022. He did that by striking out 118 batters, an incredible rate of 50.2%. He also kept his walks at a reasonable 7.7% and got grounders on 46.9% of balls in play. He even added 2 2/3 innings of scoreless work in the postseason before the Mets were eliminated.

Given that excellence, Díaz will also be looking at a nice payday on the open market. The record deal for a reliever is the five-year, $86MM deal signed by the Yankees and Aroldis Chapman. Díaz has a compelling case that he’s currently as good as Chapman was then or perhaps even better. Since that contract is six years old at this point and inflation generally pushes contracts upwards over time, it’s entirely possible that Díaz sets a new record. Given that the Mets have so many holes to fill, there would be some sense in avoiding mega deals while spreading their money around, but there’s also no doubt that retaining Díaz adds a huge lockdown element to help them win close ballgames.

The fact that the Mets have set their targets on Nimmo and Díaz doesn’t necessarily mean that they are not interested in their other potential free agents, such as deGrom, Walker or Bassitt. Roster Resource estimates the 2023 payroll is around $231MM at the moment, though that will drop by about $40MM when deGrom and Walker trigger their opt-outs. Assuming the Mets pick up Carlos Carrasco’s $14MM club option instead of the $3MM buyout, that will add $11MM back on. Factoring in a couple of non-tenders and the club could be around $200MM, give or take. Owner Steve Cohen has hinted at a $300MM spending limit, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, which leaves plenty of room to make multiple signings if that’s the way the club wants to go. Of course, the players also have a say in the matter, as do the 29 other teams. The Mets will have many strands to follow this winter, even if Nimmo and Díaz are currently at the top of the agenda.

One other route the club has considered is bringing in another Díaz, as Martino reports that the Mets tried to acquire Alexis Díaz from the Reds at the deadline a few months back. Alexis is Edwin’s younger brother and Martino reports that the two are quite close. Seeing the two brothers form a fraternal one-two punch at the back of the bullpen would certainly be exciting, but prying him loose from Cincinnati won’t be easy. 2022 was his first season in the big leagues, meaning the Reds still have five seasons of control over his services, including two more campaigns before Alexis even qualifies for a salary raise via arbitration. The debut could hardly have gone much better, as he tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.84 ERA and 32.5% strikeout rate, though his 12.9% walk rate was a few ticks above league average. He worked his way up the club’s depth chart as the season went on, earning 13 holds and 10 saves.

The Mets are reportedly hesitant to deal from their prospect depth at the moment, preferring to add to the big league team via free agency while they try to get their farm into good shape. That could make a deal unlikely to come together, though it adds another layer of intrigue to an offseason full of it.

Eppler: Mets Willing To Play Starling Marte In Center Field

By | at

The Mets are facing a number of high-profile free agents as the offseason looms. Among them is center fielder Brandon Nimmo, who’s easily the best non-Aaron Judge free agent option at the position. Nimmo and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon hear from a number of interested teams, as they’re allowed to formally speak with clubs other than the Mets five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

New York will surely keep in touch with Nimmo themselves, but they do have a potential in-house replacement if he departs. Starling Marte had played exclusively center field with the D-Backs, Marlins and A’s from 2020-21, but he moved to right field in deference to Nimmo after signing a four-year free agent deal last offseason. Marte didn’t start a single game in center field in 2022, logging all of five innings at the position. He played just under 1000 innings in right field.

After spending a year playing in a corner and having recently turned 34 years old, it’s fair to wonder if Marte’s days as a regular center fielder could be behind him. Speaking with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on The Show podcast this morning (Twitter link), Mets general manager Billy Eppler said the team would be comfortable deploying Marte as their primary center fielder in 2023 if necessary.

“Can Starling still play center field? Yeah, we believe he can,” Eppler told the Post. “That opens up some optionality for how we ultimately fill out that outfield. … We do have the ability to slide Marte over to center for a number of games, over 50% of the games. He’s got that ability to do that. … We are comfortable with him in center field.”

That’s certainly not a declaration the Mets are closing the book on retaining Nimmo. Eppler called re-signing Nimmo “not a closed case by any stretch of the imagination” and broadly spoke highly of his ability. One can argue for the Mets bringing back Nimmo as the center fielder and a top-of-the-lineup presence while keeping Marte and Mark Canha in the corners. Yet as Eppler noted, the possibly for Marte to slide back up the middle offers some additional flexibility in building out the roster if Nimmo does depart.

Public defensive metrics were mixed on Marte’s performance in right field during his debut season in Queens. Defensive Runs Saved credited him as three runs better than the average right fielder. Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Runs Above Average metric each pegged him below par, with UZR assigning him a -8 mark and Statcast putting him at -2. Eppler didn’t address Marte’s defensive metrics specifically but noted the outfielder battled some tightness in his left groin midway through the season. That perhaps explains in part a dip in his range that shouldn’t linger into 2023 after an offseason of recovery. Marte had zero MLB experience in right field before 2022, but he’d been consistently excellent in the other corner spot throughout his career.

His recent center field work has been mixed but serviceable. Between 2020-21, Marte logged 1509 1/3 innings in center. Both Statcast and UZR rated him a hair better than average, while DRS had him at a below-average but not intolerable -6 runs over that stretch.

In any event, the Mets will have to add an outfielder this offseason. Retaining Nimmo and keeping Marte and Canha in the corners would be the most straightforward outcome. Still, a nine-figure Nimmo deal could be beyond their liking as they also see players like Jacob deGrom, Edwin Díaz, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker (the latter two of whom are locks to decline options) hit the market. New York has as much spending capacity as any team under owner Steve Cohen, but they’re virtually certain to see at least a couple players of note depart for loftier guarantees elsewhere.

If Nimmo is among that group, the Mets would have more to work with attacking the corner outfield market than adding a center fielder. Aside from Judge and Nimmo, the top free agent center fielder is likely Kevin Kiermaier, who’ll be bought out by the Rays after an injury-plagued year. A Cody Bellinger non-tender would add an excellent glove to the mix and vault him above Kiermaier as the #3 option, but Bellinger is a .193/.256/.355 hitter over his past 900 plate appearances. There also aren’t any clear upgrades who’ll be available in trade, with players like Cedric Mullins and Bryan Reynolds looking unlikely to move.

The corner outfield market is a bit deeper. Judge is obviously the prize, but the middle tier of free agency offers options like Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Joc Pederson, Joey Gallo, Michael Brantley and old friend Michael Conforto. There’s also a wider pool of potential trade candidates, with Hunter Renfroe, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Max Kepler and Anthony Santander among those who could be floated in talks over the coming months.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top