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Brandon Nimmo

Dodgers, Rockies, Reds Exploring Center Field Market

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Any chance of the Dodgers retaining Cody Bellinger at a lower price after they non-tendered him were dashed this afternoon, with the 2019 NL MVP agreeing to terms on a $17.5MM pact with the Cubs. Shortly after news of that agreement broke, L.A. manager Dave Roberts met with reporters and confirmed the club is scouring the market for center field help (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times).

Aside from Aaron Judge, the free agent class is handily led by Brandon Nimmo. The longtime Met is coming off arguably a career-best season in which he hit .274/.367/.433 over a personal-high 673 plate appearances. Headed into his age-30 campaign, the lefty-swinging Nimmo is widely expected to command a deal that tops nine figures. Nimmo has drawn interest from the Yankees, Giants, Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays in addition to the incumbent Mets. There’s been no concrete reports of any interest on L.A.’s part, though they’re certainly capable of exploring that market.

Teams not interested in making that kind of commitment are facing a rather sharp drop to the next tier. It’s possible that applies to the Dodgers, and it’s certainly a factor for the Rockies and Reds. Colorado general manager Bill Schmidt tells Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette the team is seeking a left-handed hitter, preferably a player who can factor into center field (Twitter link). Nimmo fits that description, but both Allentuck and Nick Groke of the Athletic suggested yesterday he’d be too pricey for the Rockies.

Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports the Reds are seeking center field help and have looked to the free agent market. As with Colorado, Nimmo’s certainly out of the question for Cincinnati. Nightengale suggests the team is likely looking at one-year offers for hitters of interest. Payroll limitations have loomed over the Reds in each of the last two offseasons, and GM Nick Krall told reporters yesterday the front office has “a little bit of money” to spend this winter but cautioned they “don’t have a ton” at their disposal.

With Bellinger off the board, the market beyond Nimmo is very thin. Kevin Kiermaier is perhaps the only regular center fielder available, and he’s coming off a .228/.281/.369 showing with the Rays before his season was cut short by hip surgery. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted this afternoon the Mets could look into Kiermaier if Nimmo signs elsewhere. Beyond the longtime Ray, the market is led by depth options like Rafael Ortega, Adam Engel and Jackie Bradley Jr. Perhaps teams could look to Andrew Benintendi or Joey Gallo given the scarcity of the center field market, although both players have worked exclusively in the corners for the past couple seasons.

It’s a similar story on the trade market, where there aren’t many obvious candidates. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds will be the subject of renewed speculation after his trade request became public last week, but the Bucs have maintained it won’t increase their likelihood of actually making a move. The Diamondbacks are known to be open to offers on a number of their young outfielders but only in deals that’d net them MLB help. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael A. Taylor or Trent Grisham could plausibly come up in trade discussions, but there’s been no indication either is currently on the block.

Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea

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The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.

Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.

That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.

It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.

That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.

Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.

Yankees Expected To Meet With Brandon Nimmo

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The Yankees are expected to meet with free-agent center fielder Brandon Nimmo this week, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Nimmo is attending the Winter Meetings in San Diego in order to have this very type of face-to-face meeting.

Interest in Nimmo isn’t necessarily indicative of any pessimism regarding the Yanks’ ongoing efforts to re-sign Aaron Judge. Heyman writes that the team is hoping to secure two outfielders this winter, and while Judge and Nimmo represent the two most expensive options on the market, they also represent the top two talents. It’s only natural that losing Judge would theoretically increase New York’s urgency to then lure Nimmo away from their crosstown rivals, but interest in one does not strictly depend on the other’s situation.

Nimmo, who’ll turn 30 near the end of Spring Training, is a sensible target for the Yankees, regardless of Judge’s eventual decision. The Yankees’ seven-year extension for center fielder Aaron Hicks has proven to be a misstep, as Hicks has been oft-injured throughout the life of the deal and has seen his defensive ratings in center decline. The 2022 season actually marked the first time that Judge has played primarily center field, and his shift to center was borne largely out of injuries and poor performance from Hicks. The Yankees could have turned things over to young Estevan Florial for a larger look, but despite a solid showing in Triple-A, the team gave Florial just 35 big league plate appearances, during which time he went 3-for-31 with 13 strikeouts.

Adding Nimmo would give the Yankees a clear-cut everyday option in center, where his defensive ratings have improved considerably over the past two seasons in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (1), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.5) and Outs Above Average (9).The former No. 13 overall draft pick would also give the Yankees a high-OBP, relatively low-strikeout option to bat atop or near the top of the order, and the appeal of taking any left-handed hitter and allowing him to reap the benefits of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch has obvious allure.

Over the past three seasons, Nimmo has turned in a collective .280/.384/.443 batting line with 32 home runs, 55 doubles, 13 triples, an impressive 12.3% walk rate and a lower-than-average 18.5% strikeout rate. He’s been 38% better than a league-average offensive player in that span, by measure of wRC+, due largely to his elire on-base skills. Of the 342 players to tally at least 500 plate appearances since 2020, only six have reached base at a higher rate than Nimmo: Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Judge, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt.

Injuries have been the primary knock on Nimmo throughout his career, as he’d only played in 100 games one time entering the 2022 season (though he did appear in 55 of 60 contests during the shortened 2020 campaign). He enjoyed his healthiest season to date in 2022, however, logging a career-high 151 games. The injury history on Nimmo is long, as he’s missed time with knee, foot, neck, hamstring and finger injuries in addition to a partially collapsed lung in 2017. For all those injuries, he’s only been on the 60-day IL once in his career, when he missed 104 days due to a neck injury in 2019.

Checkered health history notwithstanding, it’s an extraordinarily thin market for center fielders this winter, with Nimmo standing as the only true everyday option who’s coming off a strong season (assuming one still considers Judge more of a right fielder). Nimmo has been an excellent offensive player, a solid defender and, in recent seasons, more durable on the whole, appearing in just shy of 78% of possible games dating back to 2020. The general expectation is that he’ll secure a nine-figure contract — perhaps even one that pushes to six years in length.

Pairing Nimmo and Judge could very well tack $60MM or more in luxury-tax obligations onto the Yankees’ 2023 ledger, which currently sits at a projected $222.2MM, per Roster Resource. A Judge/Nimmo pairing would skyrocket the Yankees from a bit shy of the luxury tax all the way to the third tier of penalization and place them within arm’s reach of the newly implemented fourth tier, which kicks in at $293MM this coming season. Of course, that number could be whittled down by finding a taker for Hicks or Josh Donaldson on the trade market (though the Yankees would surely have to pay down some of their remaining commitments), or perhaps by shopping any of the team’s pricier arbitration-eligible players (e.g. Gleyber Torres, Isiah Kiner-Falefa).

Nimmo rejected a $19.65MM qualifying offer from the Mets and would thus cost the Yankees, who paid the luxury tax in 2022, their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft, as well as a $1MM reduction in the size of their 2023 bonus pool for international amateur free agents. In addition to the Yankees, he’s been linked to the Mariners, Blue Jays, Giants, Rays and incumbent Mets.

Brandon Nimmo Notes: Mets, Rockies

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Brandon Nimmo will make an in-person appearance at the Winter Meetings on Tuesday, adding to the intrigue surrounding his market.  As the top center fielder available, Nimmo has been publicly linked to the Mariners, Giants, Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees, and probably several other unknown teams have also checked in on his availability.

Despite all this interest, it remains possible that Nimmo might remain in Queens, as Mets GM Billy Eppler told MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reports that the Mets have continued to have “dialogue” with Nimmo and his representatives.  As the offseason got underway, reports surfaced that the Mets were prioritizing re-signing Nimmo and Edwin Diaz from their large pool of internal free agents.  Diaz, of course, re-signed with New York before the free agent market even officially opened, inking a five-year, $102MM deal to remain with the Mets.

Nimmo remains available almost a month after Diaz put pen to paper, though that isn’t surprising given the large amount of interest in Nimmo’s services, and the possibility that his next contract could top Diaz’s dollar figure.  Also, Scott Boras is Nimmo’s agent, and Boras usually encourages his clients to fully test the open market before considering circling back to their former teams.

Pitching has been the chief focus of the Mets’ offseason to date, with Diaz re-signed and now Justin Verlander agreeing to a deal with the Amazins today.  While the Mets continue to look at more rotation candidates, it stands to reason that with an ace pitcher and a star closer now checked off the winter to-do list, Eppler and company can now turn more attention to addressing center field.

The Rockies are one team that no longer seems to be pursuing Nimmo, as both Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette and Nick Groke of the Athletic feel the club isn’t a fit considering Nimmo’s desire for a long-term contract.  While the Rox are looking for outfielders, they would prefer a shorter-term option so that any of the club’s top outfield prospects (i.e. Zac Veen) don’t get blocked.  To this end, Cody Bellinger continues to be an Colorado’s radar, as Bellinger is reportedly only looking for a one-year contract in order to re-establish his market.

Mariners Have Checked In On Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Nimmo

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The Mariners swung an early trade this month, acquiring outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays, but they may not be done adding outfielders. According to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, the team has checked in on top outfield free agents Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. It comes after president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters he was open to bringing in another outfielder.

Seattle currently has Julio Rodriguez and Hernandez locked into center and right field respectively, but left field could be open. Jesse Winker has played poor defense in left and struggled at the plate last season, and there’s been some reports that the Mariners could be open to moving him. Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell have both struggled in the big leagues, but they’re also former top prospects who are young enough to turn things around. Yet it’s clear this Mariners team is in win-now mode, so wouldn’t be surprising to see them pursue upgrades.

Nimmo seems less likely than Benintendi. Outside of Aaron Judge, he’s the clear top outfield free agent after an outstanding platform year that saw him post a 134 wRC+ and amass 5.4 fWAR. MLBTR predicted him to earn a five-year, $110MM deal this winter. With Rodriguez entrenched in center, Seattle could theoretically shift Nimmo to left, but there’s a lack of quality center field options available in free agency and a number of teams who need upgrades there. Given the price tag attached and the level of interest across the league, it seems unlikely Seattle would win a bidding war against teams operating with a bit more urgency at the position.

Benintendi doesn’t possess the upside of Nimmo, but still represents a quality option. His strong contact approach could make him a strong fit to leadoff ahead of Rodriguez, Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and the other Seattle power hitters. Between the Royals and Yankees in 2022, he posted a .304/.373/.399 line with five home runs while providing solid defense in left. He’d also come a lot cheaper than Nimmo, as MLBTR predicted him to land a four-year, $54MM contract.

While Benintendi and Nimmo are the two reported names, a number of other options would also make sense, including a reunion with Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto or Cody Bellinger, not to mention a host of trade possibilities. Any addition could see Kelenic and Trammell floated in trade discussions. They’d be selling low on both, but teams would surely be interested in acquiring either to try and tap into the potential that made them both top outfield prospects in all of baseball.

Rays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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In a market thin on center field help, Brandon Nimmo has naturally drawn a lot of interest on the free agent market.  Many of baseball’s bigger spenders have been linked to the former Mets standout, but according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the low-payroll Rays are also a rather surprising suitor for Nimmo’s services.

MLBTR projected Nimmo for a five-year, $110MM deal this winter, which would represent far and away the largest contract the Rays have even given to a free agent.  It would also represent the franchise’s second-largest expenditure on any contract, behind only Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension.  Since Nimmo rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, Tampa Bay would also have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder — no small penalty for a club that relies on building from within.

In short, it would count as a real stunner if the Rays won the bidding for one of the winter’s most sought-after free agents.  However, it is worth noting that we’re only about a year removed from the Rays’ reported offer to Freddie Freeman, another big-ticket name on the open market.  Between the Freeman offer and the Franco extension, there have been some hints out of Tampa Bay that the Rays are prepared to stretch their budget (by their standards) in order to capture that elusive championship.  The Rays have reached the postseason in each of the last four years and made it as far as the World Series in 2020, but fell short to the Dodgers in six games.

Assuming Nimmo did sign for around $22MM in average annual value, such a deal would take Tampa Bay’s payroll into a new stratosphere, though the team has already broken some of their own financial benchmarks.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2022 was just shy of $83.9MM, a new club record.  Roster Resource projects Tampa for a 2023 payroll of roughly $67.7MM, and that number includes the projected salaries of a still-large class of arbitration-eligible players.

The Rays have already parted ways with some arb-eligibles (i.e. Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Yarbrough) to save some dollars, and any number of other creative trades could still be possible to further shed payroll.  Tampa could continue to shop more members of their arbitration class, or the team could look into moving players on guaranteed contracts.  Franco isn’t going anywhere, but any of Manuel Margot, Brooks Raley, Tyler Glasnow, or even Brandon Lowe could be plausible trade chips.

Moving an established player to bring in a more expensive player like Nimmo would be an uncharacteristic move for the Rays, yet it could make sense in this circumstance.  Nimmo would essentially be Margot’s replacement in the outfield, and Raley or Glasnow could be replaced by one of the many young arms from Tampa’s seemingly endless pitching pipeline.  The Rays already did well without Lowe for much of the 2022 season, as Lowe played in only 65 games due to ongoing back problems.  If Lowe was traded, the Rays could rely on some combination of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, or Vidal Brujan at second base, as they did last season.  Plus, top prospect Curtis Mead is waiting in the wings for his Major League debut.

The Rays relied on their pitching and defense to win 86 games and claim a Wild Card berth last season, but Nimmo’s bat would greatly help a lackluster offense.  Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs over 673 plate appearances last season, which translated to a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR.  No Rays position player in 2022 had a higher fWAR than Yandy Diaz’s 3.8 number, and only Diaz (146) had a better wRC+.  The left-handed hitting Nimmo even helps from a lineup balance perspective, since Tampa’s lineup is mostly right-handed.

An argument can be made that if the Rays were going to splurge on a player, it should be for someone without Nimmo’s checkered injury history.  There is some irony in Tampa Bay pursuing an oft-injured center fielder just as Kevin Kiermaier is finally off the team’s books.  Kiermaier’s six-year, $53.5MM extension was also one of the larger deals in Rays history, and while Kiermaier was only rarely in Nimmo’s league as a hitter, Kiermaier was one of the league’s best fielders at any position when he was healthy enough to stay on the field.  The public metrics are a little more mixed on Nimmo’s work in center field, though Tampa could use him in any of the three outfield positions, since Jose Siri is on hand to play center.

Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets

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The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets.  In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player.  As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere.  For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract.  Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts).  Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix.  DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place.  However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players.  Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon.  While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold.  Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five.  Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues.  Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

Giants Interested In Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger

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The Giants have been frequently speculated as a fit for Aaron Judge, but their offseason won’t entirely revolve around him. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club will be looking for two outfielders this winter and have checked in on both Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

What sets Nimmo and Bellinger apart from most of the other free agent outfielders is the ability to play a competent center field. As noted by Slusser, the Giants’ outfield defense graded out poorly in 2022. The club used a hodgepodge of different options throughout the year, including Steven Duggar, Mauricio Dubon, Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, Luis González, Jason Krizan, Stuart Fairchild, Joc Pederson, Bryce Johnson and Lewis Brinson. Defensive Runs Saved pegged them at -44, easily the worst in baseball with the Pirates next on the list at -33. Outs Above Average gave them a -25, tied with the Phillies for last. Only Ultimate Zone Rating was gentler, as their -21.8 in that category was 29th, edging out the White Sox. That’s a pretty unanimous assessment that says this is an area the club can upgrade, and having a reliable guy to pencil in there every day would certainly be appealing.

There are a handful of players who can provide help with the defensive side of things, such as Brinson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brett Phillips, Bradley Zimmer, but they would likely be liabilities at the plate. Nimmo and Bellinger, however, have the potential to provide on both sides of the ball, though Bellinger’s offensive performance has been in quite an extended rut. Ever since injuring his shoulder during an ill-advised celebration in the 2020 postseason, he’s seemed lost at the plate. He mashed his way to MVP honors in 2019 by hitting 47 home runs and batting .305/.406/.629. His production slipped a bit in 2020 before he hit just .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022 combined.

Whether he can get his offense back on track will be a key question, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his speed and defense. He was considered league average by DRS and UZR in 2022 while OAA was more enthused, giving him a mark of six for the year. He also swiped 14 bags this season, allowing him to be worth 1.7 fWAR despite the tepid work with the bat. Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said that the outfielder will be looking for a one-year deal and it’s perhaps worth noting that this situation is at least mildly reminiscent of Carlos Rodón one year ago. Both players are represented by Boras and were entering free agency as talented players but with question marks about their consistency. The Giants and Rodón agreed to a two-year deal but with the southpaw afforded an opt-out to return to the open market after one season. Bellinger is apparently just looking for a straight one-year pact but perhaps the Giants will be the ones to step up and make that happen.

Nimmo’s case is less mysterious, at least in terms of his offense. He’s been fairly consistent at the plate, having an OBP of at least .367 in six straight seasons while keeping his wRC+ at 134 or higher over the past three. He had some durability concerns earlier in his career but has only had one significant injury absence over the past three years, which was due to a finger contusion in 2021. The defensive reviews are mixed, with both DRS and UZR giving him a negative number in 2020 and 2022 but a positive mark in 2021. OAA went negative in 2020 but has been positive the past two seasons. Wobbles from year to year with defensive metrics aren’t unheard of and it seems fair to expect Nimmo to provide at least average-ish glovework up the middle.

The problem with that stronger profile in recent seasons is that he will certainly cost much more than Bellinger. MLBTR projected him for $110MM over five years, or $22MM per season. Their payroll is currently around $133MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. That’s well shy of last year’s $155MM Opening Day figure and their franchise record of $200MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but that doesn’t mean they will do everything they set their sights on. Given that the Giants have also expressed an interest in Judge, the top free agent shortstops and retaining Rodón, adding multiple nine-figure contracts is a bit tough to see. Then again, if the Giants end up missing on a few of their other targets, they should have plenty of payroll space to work with.

Whether they prioritize Nimmo or Bellinger, they will have competition. The Blue Jays are known to be interested in both Nimmo and Bellinger, while the Mets would like to bring Nimmo back to Queens.

Blue Jays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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The Blue Jays subtracted from their outfield mix earlier today when they dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. In the wake of that deal, they are now showing interest in adding free agent Brandon Nimmo, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins spoke with members of the media on a conference call after the deal and, though he didn’t mention Nimmo by name, nothing he said would seem to preclude the club from such a bold move. “We’re in a better position to do so now from a resource and from a playing time and recruitment standpoint,” Atkins tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on the subject of adding a free agent outfielder. One option that’s on the table is acquiring a center fielder and pushing George Springer over the now-vacated right field position. “I know George will be open to it,” Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

If the Blue Jays are indeed interested in adding a free agent center fielder, they could hardly do better than Nimmo. Excluding Aaron Judge since he’s more of a right fielder, Nimmo is the clear top option available on the center field market. Then it’s a steep drop down to the next tier, consisting of veterans coming off injury-plagued seasons such as Kevin Kiermaier and Adam Duvall.

Having spent his entire career with the Mets thus far, Nimmo is a quality hitter, primarily for his ability to get on base. His career walk rate is 13.6%, well above the 2022 league average of 8.2%. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .269/.385/.441 for a wRC+ of 134, indicating he’s been 34% above league average in his time in the majors. He’s also been generally regarded as a quality outfielder, though perhaps not elite. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a 5 last year but a -3 in 2022. Ultimate Zone Rating had him at 3.4 in 2021 but -0.4 this year. Outs Above Average, however, had him at a 3 last year and a 6 this year.

Given that excellent production and his ability to also play the corners, Nimmo would likely be able to upgrade the outfield of the majority of teams around the league. It’s possible that Nimmo’s left-handed bat makes him extra appealing to the Blue Jays given their lineup is predominantly right-handed, though that wasn’t really a problem for them in 2022. Against right-handed pitching this year, the club collectively hit .266/.329/.432. That amounts to a 118 wRC+, indicating they were 18% above league average. Only the Dodgers at 122 wRC+ and Mets at 119 wRC+ were better against northpaws, which doesn’t suggest the club needs to make a left-handed bat a specific target.

Regardless, there’s an argument to moving Springer out of center field and into a corner, where the rigors of the position are generally agreed to be lesser. Springer is now 33, more than three years older than Nimmo, who is 29 and turning 30 in March. He’s also dealt with his fair share of injuries since joining the Blue Jays, only getting into 211 total games over the past two years. He’ll recovering from elbow surgery this offseason but is expected to be recovered in time for Spring Training. The advanced defensive metrics have him hovering around average in recent years, not terribly dissimilar to Nimmo. Of course, Nimmo has also dealt with injuries throughout his career, but his only significant absence of the past three seasons was a two-month stay on the IL in 2021 due to a left index finger contusion.

Since the Blue Jays aren’t the only team that could benefit from Nimmo’s skills, they will have competition and he won’t be cheap. The Mets are already known to be interested in bringing him back to Queens. MLBTR recently predicted a contract of $110MM over five years, which works out to $22MM per season. After today’s trade, Roster Resource puts Toronto’s 2023 payroll at $176MM. That means they’re already on track for an increase over last year’s franchise record Opening Day figure of $171MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A few non-tenders could bump that down a hair but it still means that the club will have to spend into uncharted territory, or make a sizable subtraction, to make a significant free agent splash. Though they upgraded their bullpen today by acquiring Erik Swanson, they likely still need to do some work on the rotation as well. Regardless of where the final number ends up, Atkins seems to think they have the funds necessary to address their needs. He told Nicholson-Smith that today’s trade added payroll flexibility but “we didn’t need it.”

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

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