Carlos Rodon

Let’s Find A Fit For Carlos Rodon

By Steve Adams | December 15, 2021 at 4:58pm CDT

Carlos Rodon had one of the best seasons, on a per-inning basis, of any starter in recent memory. He also had one of the strangest, however, as his velocity and workload plummeted among shoulder concerns in a still-productive final two months of the season.

As late into the season as July 18, Rodon had to be considered the odds-on favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award — a remarkable turnaround for a former top prospect who’d had Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery, been non-tendered and then returned to his original club on a one-year, $3MM “prove-it” deal.

Prove it, Rodon did — for much of the season. Rodon no-hit Cleveland in his second start of the season and, as of that aforementioned July 18 date, was sporting a ridiculous 2.14 ERA with a dominant 36.6% strikeout rate against an excellent 6.8% walk rate. The 96 mph he was averaging on his heater through that date was far and away the best mark of his career, and Rodon’s 15.5% swinging-strike rate placed him alongside the game’s elite starters. Simply put, he was dominant. Rodon at last looked like the No. 1 starter Sox for which Sox fans hoped when he was selected with the No. 3 overall draft pick in 2014.

A July 18 gem against a potent Astros lineup — seven shutout, one-hit innings with 10 punchouts and no walks — proved to be the last time he’d throw more than five innings in 2021, however. Rodon lasted just four frames and allowed four runs in each of his next two starts. He rebounded to overwhelm a stripped-down Cubs lineup that had traded away virtually every hitter of note, tossing five shutout innings with 11 strikeouts on Aug. 7.

Rodon then hit the injured list with shoulder fatigue, returned on Aug. 26, and went on to make only five starts over the regular season’s final 39 days. He reached 80 pitches in just one of those five starts, and his fastball sat at a greatly diminished 93.2 mph in that time. Rodon was still effective in that time (2.35 ERA in 23 innings), but his strikeout rate was down to 27.2% as well — still strong, but no longer elite.

Heading into the White Sox’ ALDS date with Houston, it was unclear whether Rodon would even be an option at all. There was some question as to whether he’d even be on the roster, but he was deemed good to go for what proved to be the decisive Game 4 of that series. Rodon came out with a revitalized fastball that was hitting the upper 90s, but he also last just 2 2/3 innings in a 56-pitch losing effort that ended Chicago’s year. Credit to Rodon for gutting it out if he was less than 100 percent, but it was obviously a suboptimal finish to what had looked to be a legitimate breakout campaign for the lefty.

As the offseason dawned, most expected the White Sox to extend a one-year qualifying offer to Rodon. That $18.4MM salary would’ve represented a massive jump from the $3MM he earned in 2021, but based on his performance, that rate of pay still represented a bargain. Instead, the Sox opted not to make the QO, allowing Rodon to become a free agent without the burden of draft compensation. That led to speculation about his health or a possible gentleman’s agreement with the front office; no one other than the Chicago front office, Rodon and agent Scott Boras can be 100 percent certain as to the reasons for the lack of a QO, but it now makes Rodon one of the most intriguing free agents on the market.

Rodon turned 29 just last week. He’s coming off a season that, even though it ended on a low note, saw him post a 2.37 ERA with a 34.6% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown, only NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes had a higher strikeout percentage. Only Burnes and Max Scherzer posted larger strikeout-to-walk percentage differentials than Rodon’s 27.9%. Rodon also ranked among the 10 best pitchers in MLB with a 15% swinging-strike rate and a 70.3% opponents’ contact rate (again, min. 100 innings).

It was a true ace-level performance, but also a level that Rodon had never before reached. Between the one-off nature of this year’s dominance and the obvious concerns about his shoulder, workload and velocity late in the season, there’s some real risk with Rodon.

On our Top 50 free agent rankings, we suggested that Rodon would likely have to choose between a one-year deal with a large salary or maxing out on a multi-year deal that’s probably shorter than most top-tier starters would command — perhaps three years. Our ultimate prediction was a one-year deal at $25MM, though we also discussed three-year deals worth $20MM annually — perhaps even a bit more.

Boras has already made clear this winter that Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal, so while it’s possible he signs for one year after not finding any longer-term deals to his liking, the thought right now has to be that he’ll sign for two or three seasons. As is increasingly common among high-profile free agents, opt-out clauses could factor into the mix.

There are still plenty of teams that need rotation help, and the fact that Rodon isn’t likely to cross into that $100MM range that’s expected of other Cy Young-caliber peers ought to make him appealing to a wide portion of the league.

We obviously can’t know where Rodon will land until the ongoing lockout is lifted, but it’s still worth taking a look at his potential market based on the context we already have. The goal here will be to identify some of the best and most plausible fits for Rodon, and there’s at least a handful of teams we know we can eliminate right off the bat.

The Orioles and Pirates, for instance, are mired in lengthy rebuilding efforts and won’t spend at this level. Ditto the A’s, who are expected to cut payroll and trade away several core players. Neither the D-backs nor the Nats have publicly committed to a full rebuild, but it seems unlikely that Rodon will land in either spot as both are more focused on the long-term than improving in 2022.

A Miami homecoming is hard to picture, given the Marlins’ generally low payrolls, pitching-rich roster and stated needs in the outfield. The Brewers are already pushing a franchise-record payroll and have three ace-caliber arms atop the staff. The Reds have been cutting payroll and are open to trading their top starters away; a Rodon match doesn’t really align with that. The Guardians are built around affordable young pitching, have needs in the lineup and have never spent like this on a free-agent arm. Tampa Bay already signed Corey Kluber and has never committed more than $30MM to a free-agent pitcher.

A.J. Preller may make me rue not taking my usual “never say never” approach to the Padres, but San Diego is already deep in relatively pricey starters and is actively trying to shed some contracts (Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers) to address the lineup. Houston is at least seven deep in starters after re-signing Justin Verlander, and adding a pricey eighth option seems unlikely. The Cardinals already signed Steven Matz and now have a pretty established top five; further rotation additions seem likelier to be of the depth variety. The Phils have an established top four and have much larger needs in the outfield and infield.That’s a quick look at which clubs feel decidedly unlikely to sign Rodon, but let’s talk some teams that could at least plausibly make this work:

That’s a quick look at which clubs feel decidedly unlikely to sign Rodon, but let’s run through some more plausible clubs, team-by-team, before trying to pick out a few of the best possible fits for the lefty:

Angels: Signing Noah Syndergaard and rolling the dice on Michael Lorenzen was a good start to bolstering the rotation, but the Angels could use another high-upside option, given the number of question marks up and down the current staff. You could argue that they need to focus on more certainty, but with enough high-risk upside plays, they could navigate a full season even as injuries arise. The Halos haven’t given multiple years to a free-agent starter since 2012, but if Rodon’s market tops out at three years, that’d be fewer seasons than they just committed to closer Raisel Iglesias.
Blue Jays: Toronto lost both Robbie Ray and Steven Matz in free agency, and they’ve since signed Kevin Gausman. Adding another bat and some bullpen help seems likelier than another high-priced starter, but it’s hard not to be tempted by the thought of a rotation featuring Gausman, Rodon, Hyun Jin Ryu, Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah. The Jays could probably sign Rodon and still clock in south of their franchise-record $163MM payroll, but another starter may not be their top need.
Braves: With Mike Soroka out until mid-2022, Atlanta could definitely use another starting pitcher — even after re-upping with Charlie Morton on a $20MM deal. Most of Atlanta’s post-lockout focus will be on re-signing Freddie Freeman. But Rodon fits the type of huge-upside, relatively short-term signings made in Atlanta under Alex Anthopoulos as well. If Freeman shocks everyone and leaves, Atlanta could make some big moves elsewhere on the roster.
Cubs: It was somewhat surprising to see the Cubs add a pair of notable free agents in Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes, and those moves at least give cause to stop and wonder whether another big splash might be coming. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic both feel Rodon won’t be a priority for the Cubs, who entered the offseason hoping to add a pair of slam-dunk rotation options and have done that with Stroman and Wade Miley. Another big-name addition in the rotation doesn’t feel likely, per The Athletic duo, who suggest bullpen additions to be a likelier focus for the Cubs.
Dodgers: A reasonably short-term, high-priced deal for Rodon feels like something right out of the Dodgers’ playbook. Rodon showed that his upside was as high as any free agent on the market, but the health concerns will tamp down the contract length into L.A.’s preferred range. The Dodgers lost Max Scherzer, they’re not sure what will happen with Trevor Bauer, and Clayton Kershaw ended the year with even greater physical question marks before reaching free agency. On paper, it’s a strong match for a Dodgers club that needs some arms behind Walker Buehler and Julio Urias.
Giants: As with the Dodgers, a relatively short-term deal with an upside play like Rodon feels right up the Giants’ alley. San Francisco is reportedly believed to be averse to nine-figure free agents, and outside of the now-off-the-market Verlander, Rodon may have the best upside of any pitcher available for under $100MM. The Giants already added three stabilizing pieces to round out the rotation, so there’s plenty of sense to shooting for the moon on a fourth addition.
Mariners: Seattle already signed the AL Cy Young winner, but we know they’ll still be looking for starting pitching after the lockout is resolved. The M’s have a solid foursome atop the rotation, but Rodon would give them another likely postseason starter as they look to return to the playoffs for the first time in two decades. Adding an impact bat could be higher on the list of priorities for president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto, but Seattle’s projected payroll is so low that they could sign both Rodon and one of the top remaining bats on the market while still fitting tens of millions of dollars below a franchise-record level.
Mets: New York already has its share of injury-prone arms, but it’s abundantly clear by now that owner Steve Cohen is pulling out all the stops as he looks to push the team toward a World Series run. Rodon, Scherzer and a healthy Jacob deGrom has the potential to be a comically dominant trio, and after the Mets topped a quarter-billion in spending prior to the lockout, we shouldn’t assume they’ll slow down when things resume.
Rangers: Speaking of pre-lockout spending sprees, the Rangers topped a half-billion dollars in total commitments and still have minimal certainty in the rotation. Rodon doesn’t provide the bulk innings Texas could so sorely stand to add, but for a team that’s obviously hell-bent on improving in 2022 and returning to the playoffs before long, Rodon probably can’t be firmly ruled out. Incredibly, their 2022 payroll is still projected to come in nearly $40MM shy of its all-time high.
Red Sox: This type of short-term upside play seems like one that’d sit well with chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, but the Sox have also already added Rich Hill, Michael Wacha and James Paxton to the 2022 staff. The Boston rotation is teeming with upside and uncertainty alike, and Rodon would add to it on both fronts. The Sox are also over $200MM in luxury obligations, though, so Rodon could be deemed too pricey even if the luxury threshold increases under the new CBA.
Rockies: Persuading any pitcher to play in Coors Field is difficult, but the Rockies have money to spend. Rodon’s decision to seek a multi-year deal suggests he’s looking to max out his earning power right now, so if Colorado offers an extra year over what the rest of the field is willing to commit, perhaps they could pull off a stunner.
Royals: Kansas City’s estimated payroll is only around $86MM right now, so there’s obvious room to fit Rodon into the rotation as a means of taking some pressure off younger arms. They landed a pair of veteran free agents last year by going an extra year over most expectations on Mike Minor and Carlos Santana. Taking that approach with Rodon would be a vastly more expensive proposition, however. The Royals are trying to win now, but this feels like a reach even if they have the need and payroll space.
Tigers: An on-the-rise team with gobs of payroll space, a deep collection of near-MLB top prospects, a pitcher-friendly home park and plenty of innings available — the Tigers check basically any box you could imagine for Rodon. They’ve already signed Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, and they’re still looking for another rotation addition. Rodon drastically raises their ceiling and takes pressure of some younger arms like Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize.
Twins: Minnesota entered the offseason needing at least three starters, and so far they’ve…. rolled the dice on a Dylan Bundy rebound. It’s a fine move in a vacuum, but the Twins’ need for more pitching help is painstakingly obvious. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported this week that last winter, the Twins tried to get Rodon on a minor league deal before he received that $3MM contract from the South Siders. That said, Hayes adds that Minnesota seems likelier to address its pitching needs via trade and may not be keen on taking a Rodon-sized risk with so many holes on the staff. It’s a good fit on paper, at the very least.
White Sox: General manager Rick Hahn has said all the right things about wanting Rodon back, but it’s hard to take those statements at face value when Chicago didn’t make him a qualifying offer. The Pale Hose already have five to six starters — though they’d probably welcome the opportunity to shed Dallas Keuchel’s final year — and had the chance to persuade Rodon with that one-year QO. The Daily Herald’s Scot Gregor suggested this week that Rodon isn’t likely to return to the Sox, who are still eyeing help in the outfield and at second base.
Yankees: The Bombers, in recent years, have favored risky rotation plays for volatile but immensely talented starters in the Rodon mold. Their need at shortstop is the most heavily discussed roster deficiency in the Bronx, but the rotation after Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery is suspect. Domingo German finished horribly. Luis Severino has pitched a combined 18 innings in the past three years. Jameson Taillon had offseason ankle surgery. Prospects Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt struggled and/or missed significant time due to injury.

In the end, any of these teams feels like at least a good theoretical match, but most come with reasons to cast doubt on whether they’d actually sign Rodon. From my vantage point, the best blend of on-paper need, available payroll space and plausible willingness to take this type of risk lies with the Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Tigers and Yankees.

Boras: Rodon Seeking Multi-Year Deal

By Anthony Franco | November 10, 2021 at 3:14pm CDT

The White Sox made the somewhat surprising decision to not issue an $18.4MM qualifying offer to left-hander Carlos Rodón before this past Sunday’s deadline. That allowed Rodón to hit the open market unencumbered by draft pick forfeiture, and the Sox won’t receive any compensation if the All-Star signs elsewhere.

Rodón’s agent Scott Boras jokingly thanked the organization for not making a QO while speaking with reporters (including James Fegan of the Athletic) this afternoon. Boras flatly stated that they’d have declined a QO had it been made. Moreover, he seemed to shoot down the notion of Rodón signing a one-year deal with Chicago or anyone else this winter.

“Obviously, we’re pursuing a multi-year contract and weren’t going to sign a one-year contract,” Boras said. There’d been some thought Rodón could look to maximize his 2022 earnings on a one-year pact, hope to back up his stellar 2021 showing with another great season, then set out in search of nine figures next winter. It doesn’t seem that’s the course of action Rodón will take, at least not at the outset of the offseason.

A longer-term deal is certainly a justifiable goal. On an inning for inning basis, Rodón was one of the best pitchers in baseball this past season. He tossed 132 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, ranking second among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched. He also ranked second in strikeout rate (34.6%), third in strikeout/walk rate differential (27.9 percentage points), fourth in SIERA (2.96) and seventh in swinging strike percentage (15%).

The potential holdup on Rodón hasn’t been effectiveness, but health. He was limited to just 42 1/3 innings between 2019-20 because of injuries. After staying healthy for much of the 2021 campaign, Rodón wound up on the injured list with shoulder discomfort and missed a few weeks in August.

He continued to be very effective upon his return, but his fastball and slider velocity both dropped a couple ticks down the stretch. It’s plausible Rodón deliberately backed off the throttle in preparation for the playoffs, as the Sox had all but wrapped up the AL Central title by the end of July. His fastball velocity, at least, did bounce back during his lone postseason appearance. That outing lasted just 2 2/3 innings, though, and his slider remained in its late-season 84 MPH area rather than its usual 85-87 MPH range from May through July. The White Sox were eliminated by the Astros before Rodón had an opportunity to make another start.

Teams’ evaluations of Rodón’s shoulder figure to be critical to determining his eventual market power. Unsurprisingly, Boras told reporters that the 28-year-old (29 in December) is fully healthy. If team medical staffs agree, then Rodón looks likely to receive strong multi-year offers, since he’s one of a small group of free agent hurlers who has shown himself capable of putting up ace-like numbers at his best.

White Sox GM Rick Hahn On Kimbrel, Rodon, Kopech

By Anthony Franco | November 10, 2021 at 1:34pm CDT

The White Sox enter the offseason coming off their first division title in thirteen years. General manager Rick Hahn has met with the media a few times in recent days to discuss a couple key early offseason decisions and provide updates on a few players already under team control.

First and foremost, Hahn addressed a pair of decisions Chicago has already made: exercising a $16MM club option on reliever Craig Kimbrel and declining to issue an $18.4MM qualifying offer to starter Carlos Rodón. Last month, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested the Sox could look to deal Kimbrel after exercising the option, and Hahn acknowledged that as a possibility.

“We view him as a potentially impactful reliever, as he’s been for the vast majority of his career,” Hahn said of Kimbrel (via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “What we have to figure out is if it makes the most sense to have Craig in a White Sox uniform going forward or is there a better use of that spot and him perhaps via trade?”

Kimbrel’s one of trickier players around the league to value. As Hahn noted, the righty has been one of the best relievers in recent history over the course of his career. He’s an eight-time All-Star who posted an absurd 0.49 ERA with a 46.7% strikeout rate in 36 2/3 innings for the Cubs last season. But Kimbrel struggled badly with the North Siders from 2019-20, and he was tagged for a 5.09 ERA (albeit with a still-excellent 36.7% strikeout percentage) in 23 frames after being traded to the South Side at the deadline. There’ll certainly be plenty of teams intrigued by the possibility of Kimbrel as a late-game stopper, but clubs will have to weigh his upside against his recent run of inconsistency and fairly high price tag in 2022.

On Rodón, Hahn told reporters (including Scott Merkin of MLB.com) the team remained open to his return. “(The qualifying offer) was not offered to him. It doesn’t mean we aren’t interested in bringing him back,” Hahn said. “We have not ruled out him returning.” Nightengale previously reported the Sox didn’t intend to make a great effort to bringing the southpaw back, though, and it seems likely Rodón and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will be able to top the $18.4MM QO value — which Chicago was unwilling to risk, at least this early in the offseason — on the open market.

One could make the case the Sox already have an in-house option to step into Rodón’s rotation spot in Michael Kopech. The flamethrowing righty missed all of 2019-20 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and opting out of the 2020 campaign due to concerns about COVID-19. Chicago used him as a multi-inning relief weapon this past season to keep his workload in check, but Hahn told reporters (including James Fegan of the Athletic) last week the club is committed to stretching Kopech out as a starter in 2022.

The 25-year-old Kopech worked 69 1/3 innings in 2021, posting a 3.50 ERA with a huge 36.1% strikeout percentage and a fine 8.4% walk rate. There’s some risk in taking him out of a bullpen role to which he acclimated so well, but public scouting reports have long suggested Kopech could have top-of-the-rotation upside if given the opportunity. The White Sox are set to explore that possibility, although Hahn cautioned that Kopech may not be ready to take on an ace-caliber workload from Day One.

“I’m going to probably be sitting in this chair some point next summer explaining why we are doing something with Michael in terms of giving him a break in order to keep him strong over the course of that season,” Hahn said (via Fegan). “It’s the innings base and what can we reasonably tack onto him over the course of ideally seven months next year. We are going to have to be diligent in our monitoring of him over the course of the offseason as well as he goes through spring training, and over the course of the regular season in terms of how the ball looks coming out of his hand, what his mechanics look like, what the data is telling us, how Michael is reporting how he feels.”

Hahn also provided updates on a pair of injured players last week. Lance Lynn will spend the next 3-4 weeks resting and rehabbing a right knee issue that sent him to the injured list in late August (via Mark Gonzales). Outfielder Adam Engel, meanwhile, recently underwent surgery to address a left shoulder injury that landed him on the shelf in August as well (according to Maddie Lee of NBC Sports Chicago). That procedure is not expected to affect Engel’s readiness for the start of next season.

Notable Players Who Didn’t Receive Qualifying Offers

By Mark Polishuk | November 7, 2021 at 7:03pm CDT

Fourteen players were issued qualifying offers before today’s 4pm CT deadline, making the largest slate of offers extended since 20 players received the QO during the 2015-16 offseason. Despite the large number, however, some notable (and surprising) names weren’t issued the one-year, $18.4MM contract by their teams, and will now enter free agency without any draft pick compensation attached to their services.

We already touched on Clayton Kershaw’s situation with the Dodgers, and now let’s look at the three other free agents (all pitchers) who were seen as possible or even probable candidates to receive the QO…

Jon Gray, Rockies

Perhaps the most curious non-decision of the day came from Denver, as the Rockies passed on giving Gray a qualifying offer despite their clear interest in retaining the right-hander. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports that Gray “likely would have accepted” a qualifying offer, which likely factored into the team’s decision-making process. It seems like the Rockies simply weren’t willing to pay Gray $18.4MM over one year, even though Colorado seemed comfortable in the range of a $13MM average annual value, as per their recent extension offer of a three-year deal worth around $35-$40MM.

It seems entirely possible that Gray could find more than three years and $40MM on the open market, especially without any QO compensation involved. While the Rockies and Gray may yet work out a new contract, the Rox are now in the position of losing Gray for nothing. This would be an especially tough blow for the club considering that they held onto Gray at the trade deadline out of the desire to sign him to a long-term extension.

Carlos Rodon, White Sox

Some late-season shoulder problems resulted in a trip to the injured list and then a reduced workload for the southpaw, putting a bit of a sour end to an otherwise tremendous year. However, the White Sox declined to issue Rodon a qualifying offer, and may now be parting ways with Rodon entirely — both The Athletic’s James Fegan and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated that the Sox weren’t going to make an effort to bring Rodon back for another year on the South Side.

With this in mind, it seems clear that the White Sox didn’t want to run the risk of Rodon accepting the QO, which seemed like a distinct possibility given his late-season shoulder woes, not to mention his lengthy past injury history. It could be that the Sox already consider Rodon as found money, considering they took a $3MM flier on him last winter and he delivered 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball. The team might also have further concerns about his long-term health. As Fegan notes, Chicago could use some type of starting depth this offseason, but it looks as though the White Sox feel they can find that rotation help at a cheaper price than Rodon at $18.4MM.

Anthony DeSclafani, Giants

One of several pitchers who have revived their careers after coming to San Francisco, DeSclafani rebounded from a rough 2020 season with the Reds to post a 3.17 ERA over 167 2/3 frames in a Giants uniform. With some less-than-stellar Statcast numbers, however, the Giants may not have been inclined to have DeSclafani back for $18.4MM, though the team does have designs on re-signing him if possible.

There was a decent chance DeSclafani would have accepted the Giants’ QO, just as Kevin Gausman did a season ago. Since the Giants also issued a qualifying offer to Brandon Belt that could be accepted, the club was probably wary of committing $36.8MM to just two players for their 2022 payroll, even if San Francisco has quite a bit of financial room to maneuver.

White Sox “Optimistic” Carlos Rodon Can Contribute During Postseason

By Steve Adams | October 4, 2021 at 1:38pm CDT

The White Sox only received 28 innings from Carlos Rodon over the season’s final two months, as the left-hander missed time due to a shoulder issue and was regularly pulled after five innings even when he was healthy enough to take the mound. Part of that is likely rooted in the White Sox’ runaway lead in the American League Central, which allowed them to take a cautious approach with the resurgent southpaw. Still, his health has been something of a question mark for the Sox in recent days.

General manager Rick Hahn told reporters today the club remains “optimistic” that Rodon “will be able to contribute and help us over the course of the next month” (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times). Rodon will only pitch once during the American League Division Series, per Hahn, and they’ll assess his workload and availability on a series-per-series basis throughout the duration of their playoff run. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that Rodon will throw in the bullpen tomorrow, which will give the team additional clarity on his status.

White Sox brass is currently debating whether Lucas Giolito or Lance Lynn will start the first game of the ALDS against Houston, Hahn added (Twitter link via The Athletic’s James Fegan). The GM called his two standout righties virtually “interchangeable” and said the debate will likely boil down to which they feel is better equipped to start a second time in the Division Series, if needed. Hahn also provided an update on first baseman Jose Abreu, who missed time this weekend with a non-Covid illness but is expected to be ready for workouts leading up to Thursday’s Game 1 showdown against the Astros.

The uncertainty surrounding Rodon is not only significant with regard to the imminent playoffs but also with the offseason looming. Rodon signed a one-year, $3MM deal to return to Chicago after being non-tendered and, for much of the season, was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. The 28-year-old made his first All-Star team, pitched to a 2.31 first-half ERA in 89 2/3 innings, and looked to be in the midst of breaking out as the ace the Sox hoped he could be when selecting him third overall back in 2014.

Rodon blanked the Astros over seven near-perfect frames in his first post-All-Star appearance on July 18, punching out 10 batters and lowering his ERA to 2.14. That, however, was the last time he’d throw more than five innings in a single outing this season. Rodon was on the injured list from Aug. 10-26 due to fatigue in his left shoulder, and while he was effective in his return from that IL stint, he averaged just 73.6 pitches and 4 2/3 innings per outing upon activation.

Regardless of how the postseason goes, it’d be hard for the White Sox to not give strong consideration to a qualifying offer for Rodon, who demonstrated the extent of his upside with 132 2/3 frames of 2.37 ERA ball, a 34.6 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate. That’ll present Rodon with an interesting decision. Accepting a qualifying offer and then repeating that success with greater health in 2022 would position him for a massive free-agent payday. On the other hand, he’d perhaps command interest on lower-cost multi-year deals right now, and taking the one-year qualifying offer comes with the risk that further injury would sap his future market.

For now, simply performing in the postseason and giving his club the best chance possible at a deep run will be the lefty’s obvious priority. That said, he’ll be a fascinating qualifying offer and free-agent case when the time does come.

Injury Notes: Rodon, Blue Jays, Slater, Gsellman, Cardinals

By Mark Polishuk | September 5, 2021 at 10:31pm CDT

The White Sox are skipping Carlos Rodon’s next turn in the rotation due to shoulder soreness, and manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including NBC Chicago’s Maddie Lee) that the team is hopeful Rodon can pitch during the upcoming September 10-12 series with the Red Sox. That said, “when he doesn’t feel right, it’s impossible to push it,” La Russa said, noting that in the wake of Rodon’s recent injured-list stint due to shoulder fatigue, “that’s what’s concerning, that all this should add up to where right now he would be in peak form.”

Rodon missed a little over two weeks on the IL and has pitched well in two starts since returning, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 innings. However, the Sox were easing Rodon back into action, limiting him to 144 total pitches over the two outings. La Russa said Jimmy Lambert would likely be called up to take Rodon’s spot in what has become an increasingly injury-riddled pitching staff — Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are also on the 10-day injured list.

The latest on other injury situations around baseball…

Cavan Biggio and Ross Stripling are slated to begin rehab assignments at the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes (Twitter link). Stripling was placed on the 10-day IL on August 11 with a left oblique strain and could be closer than Biggio to a return, as Stripling might be back when the Jays begin a series against the Orioles on Friday. Biggio was already on a rehab assignment for a back problem when he suffered an elbow injury two weeks ago, thus setting back his progress.
The Giants placed outfielder Austin Slater on the seven-day concussion IL prior to tonight’s game. Left-hander Sammy Long was also sent down to Triple-A, while righty Camilo Doval and outfielder Steven Duggar were recalled in corresponding moves. Slater suffered his concussion while crashing into the outfield wall in Saturday’s game in an attempt to catch a Trea Turner home run. Now in his fifth season with San Francisco, Slater is hitting .227/.313/.395 with 10 home runs over 288 plate appearances while seeing time at all three outfield positions.
Robert Gsellman began a rehab assignment at the Mets’ low-A affiliate today, Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets. Gsellman has been sidelined since June 21 due to a torn lat muscle, and though he’ll need multiple rehab outings due to the long layoff, he is on pace to return to the Mets bullpen before the season is out.
Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told The Athletic’s Katie Woo and other reporters that Jack Flaherty will take the “huge step” of beginning to play catch within the next day or two. Flaherty’s season seemed to be in jeopardy when he was placed on the IL on August 25 due to a shoulder strain, though there is some optimism that the right-hander may be able to return as either a reliever or as a piggyback starter. In other Cardinals pitching news, Shildt said that Dakota Hudson will throw at least three more rehab starts as the righty continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. The timing will be somewhat tight, but there is some hope that Hudson can return to a big league mound this season, which would mark a tremendous recovery considering that Hudson underwent his surgery in late September 2020.

White Sox Activate Carlos Rodon From Injured List

By Anthony Franco | August 26, 2021 at 10:55am CDT

The White Sox announced they’ve reinstated Carlos Rodón from the 10-day injured list. He’ll start this afternoon’s game against the Blue Jays. Infielder Danny Mendick was optioned to Triple-A Charlotte in a corresponding move.

Rodón is back for the first time in a couple weeks. He was retroactively placed on the IL on August 8 with shoulder fatigue. That came as something of a surprise, as Rodón had punched out eleven Royals over five scoreless innings during his prior start. The White Sox could afford to take things cautiously at even the slightest hint of discomfort from Rodón, who has tossed 109 2/3 innings this season after injuries limited him to 42 1/3 frames between 2019-20 combined. With the AL Central all but officially wrapped up, the Sox’s focus is on having Rodón at full strength for the postseason.

The southpaw has been surprisingly brilliant in 2021 after those back-to-back campaigns wrecked by injury. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Walker Buehler, Lance Lynn, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff have a lower ERA than his 2.38 mark. Rodón’s 36.2% strikeout rate and 29.4 percentage point strikeout/walk rate differential are both the best of that group. Assuming he finishes the season at or near that level, Rodón will earn strong support for the American League Cy Young award and position himself very well as he enters free agency this winter.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

By Anthony Franco | August 20, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Charlie Morton

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

Mark Canha, Avisaíl García, Kwang-hyun Kim, Corey Kluber, Buster Posey, Adam Wainwright, Alex Wood

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)

AL Central Notes: Garcia, Rodon, Mondesi, Bieber, Civale, Teheran

By Mark Polishuk | August 15, 2021 at 4:08pm CDT

The White Sox placed utilityman Leury Garcia on the seven-day concussion injured list today, retroactive to August 13. Infielder Danny Mendick was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move. The versatile Garcia has received multiple starts at six different positions this season, including 28 games at second base and 46 games spread across all three outfield spots. Now in his ninth season with the White Sox, Garcia’s super-utility status has made him a valuable bench piece and a semi-regular starter, even though he hasn’t contributed much at the plate.

Due to the nature of concussion symptoms, it isn’t known how much time Garcia could miss. The Sox do have a bit more of a timeline lightly sketched out for Carlos Rodon, however, as manager Tony La Russa suggested to reporters (including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin) that Rodon might pitch during Chicago’s four-game series against the Blue Jays that runs from August 23-26. Rodon’s 10-day IL placement due to shoulder fatigue retroactively began on August 8, and though La Russa said at the time that Rodon would likely be out of action beyond the 10-day minimum, a return against Toronto would still represent a relatively quick comeback for the left-hander.

White Sox Place Carlos Rodon On 10-Day Injured List

By Steve Adams | August 11, 2021 at 10:30am CDT

The White Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve placed lefty Carlos Rodon on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Aug. 8, due to left shoulder fatigue. Right-hander Matt Foster is up from Triple-A Charlotte to take his spot on the active roster. Chicago also announced that catcher Yasmani Grandal, who’s been out since early July after undergoing surgery to repair a torn tendon in his knee, will begin a minor league rehab assignment with Double-A Birmingham.

Rodon, 28, had been lined up to start tomorrow’s Field of Dreams game against the Yankees, but that start will now instead go to righty Lance Lynn. The South Siders haven’t provided a firm timeline for Rodon’s recovery, but manager Tony La Russa tells reporters he expects it to be longer than a minimum stint on the IL (Twitter link via ESPN 1000’s Connor McKnight). Notably, Rodon has a history of shoulder troubles. He underwent shoulder surgery back in 2017 and missed most of the 2020 campaign with shoulder pain as well.

The ChiSox have had the American League Central more or less wrapped up for quite some time now, so there’s little sense in rushing Rodon back. His absence won’t seriously hinder the team’s commanding 10.5-game lead in the Central, and the team’s focus is surely on making sure he’s at full strength to close out the regular season and play a pivotal role in the postseason rotation.

Rodon serving as a key to the Sox’ postseason starting staff would’ve seemed far-fetched, to say the least, not long ago. The White Sox non-tendered Rodon last December after a pair of injury-ruined seasons in 2019-20 that saw Rodon combine for a grisly 5.74 ERA in 42 1/3 frames.

That non-tender looked to end Rodon’s time with the Sox, but just shy of two months later, he returned on a one-year, $3MM deal. It wasn’t the most well-received signing in recent memory among White Sox fans, but Rodon has proved any naysayers wrong by not only rebounding to previous levels but instead rising to new heights entirely, as recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.

The 2021 version of Rodon has been the overpowering ace that the Sox perhaps hoped he’d eventually become when selecting him with the No. 3 overall draft pick back in 2014. Through 19 starts this season, Rodon has pitched 109 2/3 innings of 2.38 ERA ball while fanning an outstanding 36.2 percent of his opponents against a very tidy 6.8 percent walk rate. He’s bumped his average fastball velocity to a career-high 95.8 mph, fanned 10 or more hitters on five occasions and thrown a no-hitter that was very nearly a perfect game.

Along the way, Rodon has cemented himself as one of the team’s frontline starters, joining the aforementioned Lynn among the league’s more dominant hurlers. Rodon’s ERA is sixth-best among pitchers with at least 100 innings thrown — Lynn leads the way at 2.04 — and no pitcher in baseball has whiffed a higher percentage of his opponents (again, min. 100 innings pitched).

The injury shouldn’t impact the White Sox’ chances of reaching the postseason. However, Rodon himself would be best-served with a quick return to full strength, as he’s set to return to the free-agent market this winter. The dominance he’s shown to date should already position him for a hefty multi-year contract, but a lengthy absence may give teams some pause — particularly given the deep free-agent class and the number of alternative options on the market. He’ll already be viewed much differently than when the Sox cut him loose back in December, but a quick return and healthy finish would make for an even more bullish outlook.

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