Carlos Rodon

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

By Anthony Franco | August 9, 2022 at 5:53pm CDT

Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

Giants Do Not Trade Carlos Rodon, Joc Pederson Prior To Deadline

By Anthony Franco | August 2, 2022 at 5:00pm CDT

5:00pm: There was no last-minute trade of either Rodon or outfielder Joc Pederson, tweets Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. Both remain with the Giants and are now ineligible to be traded with the deadline passed. The Giants can still issue a qualifying offer to both players, with Rodon standing out as a particularly obvious candidate to receive one.

2:20pm: The Yankees have also checked in on Rodon, though they’re seen as a “long shot,” Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets.

Jayson Stark of The Athletic adds that Rodon’s $22.5MM player option has indeed been a complicating factor in talks to this point, given the aforementioned downside it presents an acquiring club.

1:20pm: The Giants are in discussions with teams about Carlos Rodón, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Slusser suggests they’re not motivated to sell low, however, indicating they’d only accept an offer for “full value.” Slusser lists the Phillies, Twins, and Cardinals as interested parties. At 51-52, the Giants sit 4.5 games out for a wild card spot and have 16.6% playoff odds as calculated by FanGraphs.

Rodon dominated through his first 16 starts last year for the White Sox, but then seemed to wear down and was handled carefully the rest of the year. The White Sox chose not to issue a qualifying offer, and Rodon went into free agency as a high-risk, high-reward pitcher. After the lockout, the Giants gave Rodon a two-year, $44MM deal that allows him to opt out of the remaining $22.5MM for ’23 if he reaches 110 innings, a condition the lefty has already met.

So far, Rodon has silenced any concern about his health, as he’s tossed 123 innings without a dropoff in velocity or production, resulting in his second consecutive All-Star nod. Over his last five starts, Rodon has punched out over 36% of batters faced, whiffing ten in each of his last two.

As with any opt-out clause, Rodon will exercise it if he thinks he can top the remaining $22.5MM. Barring a significant injury, it seems likely Rodon will indeed explore free agency again unless he’s extended by a new team. The Mariners and Yankees, respectively, have landed the top two starters on the trade market in Luis Castillo and Frankie Montas. Back-end options Jose Quintana and Jake Odorizzi are off the board as well.

A healthy Rodon is a potential Game 1 or 2 playoff starter, and can impact a playoff race. However, he is owed over $7.5MM for the remainder of the season, plus the downside risk of his opt-out clause and the chance of a repeat of last year’s late fade. He’ll need a suitor with financial flexibility and tolerance for risk. If the Giants don’t find an offer to their liking, they can still tender a qualifying offer to Rodon after the season.

Giants “Listening” To Trade Offers For Veteran Players

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2022 at 9:19pm CDT

9:19PM: “Pretty much anyone not Logan Webb” could be discussed by the Giants in trade talks, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

8:17PM: The Giants have gone 11-22 over their last 33 games, dropping them below the .500 mark and putting them four games outside of the NL wild card race. While the club was reportedly resistant on being deadline sellers as recently as three days ago, the Giants “now listening on their veterans” in trade talks, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand also tweeted that according to a rival executive, San Francisco was seemingly “ready to sell.”

Assuming that the Giants are indeed poised to become sellers to some extent, they immediately become an intriguing team to watch prior to Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has taken a measured approach to selloffs in the past, even during the 2019 and 2020 deadlines when the Giants had a lot more impetus to fully tear down an aging and expensive roster. A major overhaul certainly doesn’t seem in the works this time around, as since the Giants are less than a season removed from winning 107 games, Zaidi certainly must feel his group can return to contention in 2023 (or could even regroup for a late playoff push this year).

Pending free agents are the most obvious trade candidates, and Carlos Rodon would immediately be a major new entry in the pitching market if the Giants made him available. The left-hander is in the midst of an outstanding season, and recently unlocked a vesting option that allows Rodon to opt out of his contract following the season. Rodon is owed $22.5MM in 2023, but since he can surely land a much more lucrative and longer-term pact in free agency, he looks like a sure bet to exercise his opt-out clause.

The White Sox decided against issuing a qualifying offer to Rodon last winter, and thus he is still eligible for the QO tag this offseason now that we know the qualifying offer system will still be in place. The Giants can recoup a compensatory draft pick in exchange for Rodon’s services if he does sign elsewhere, and thus if any rivals teams are interested in Rodon at the deadline, they’ll have to offer San Francisco something of greater value than that compensatory pick. Speculatively, that could be a player closer to the big leagues, since someone who can provide more immediate help might be preferable for a Giants team that plans to win next year.

As for other free agents, Wilmer Flores, Dominic Leone, and Joc Pederson would all garner interest, though Pederson was just placed on the seven-day concussion IL. A team would be taking some risk in acquiring Pederson given the unpredictable nature of concussion-related symptoms, and of course the Giants’ return in a Pederson trade would be impacted by this uncertainty.

Evan Longoria is also on the injured list, as a right hamstring strain has continued an injury-plagued year for the veteran third baseman. The Giants hold a $13MM club option on Longoria for 2023 that doesn’t look too likely to be exercised at this point, though Longoria has also stated that he might retire after the season. Since Longoria has already started fielding drills is expected back in the first week or two of August, another team could take a flier on a veteran who has still quite well when healthy. Longtime Giant Brandon Belt is also a free agent after the year, though a trade doesn’t seem too likely since Belt has also battled injuries and is having only an okay year at the plate. Belt can also decline any trade due to his rights as a 10-and-5 veteran.

NL West Notes: Ohtani, Padres, Walker, Rodon, Giants, Bard

By Mark Polishuk | July 28, 2022 at 3:18pm CDT

The Angels reportedly don’t have any interest in trading Shohei Ohtani, but that hasn’t stopped the team from at least listening to offers out of due diligence, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post write. The Padres are one of those teams who have called about Ohtani, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who adds that this is the type of aggressive move that has become typical of San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. There doesn’t seem to be any indication that the Padres have caught the Halos’ attention, except in the broader sense that the Padres have the depth of premium young talent that the Angels would undoubtedly want if they actually did considering sending Ohtani elsewhere.

Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo have also been linked to the Padres in trade rumors, and as Rosenthal notes, it is noteworthy in itself that San Diego is looking at pitchers despite having plenty of rotation depth on paper. However, MacKenzie Gore was recently placed on the injured list, Sean Manaea has struggled as of late, and the Padres could be trying to land a pitcher controlled through at least 2023 considering that Manaea, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger, and Nick Martinez could all potentially enter the free agent market this winter. Furthermore, someone like Blake Snell could be dealt to try and stay under the luxury tax threshold, as avoiding another tax payment is another consideration for Preller to manage as the deadline approaches.

Carlos Rodon Reaches 110 Innings Pitched, Vests Right To Opt Out After This Season

By Anthony Franco | July 21, 2022 at 11:43pm CDT

Giants All-Star hurler Carlos Rodón tossed five frames tonight against the Dodgers, reaching the 110-inning threshold for the season. That’s a notable marker for the southpaw. Rodón’s two-year, $44MM contract with San Francisco affords him the right to opt out after this year upon reaching 110 innings.

Rodón has clearly been trending towards the mark for a while, as he’s stayed healthy and taken the ball 19 times. While not unexpected, his getting to that point nevertheless has key ramifications for next winter’s free agent class. Rodón is dominating opponents for a second straight season, and he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation seem all but certain to test the market over the offseason. Barring injury or an out-of-nowhere performance downturn in the second half, Rodón is a lock to handily surpass the one year and $22.5MM that’ll remain on his deal with San Francisco.

Indeed, the former third overall pick is trending towards reaching the market as one of the best, if not the best, arms in the class. He won’t turn 30 years old until December, and he owns a sub-3.00 ERA for a second straight season. Rodón provided the White Sox with 132 2/3 innings of 2.37 ERA ball last season, striking out an incredible 34.6% of batters faced against a career-low 6.7% walk rate. He looked on his way to Cy Young consideration before spending a couple weeks on the injured list in mid-August with shoulder fatigue. He remained effective upon his return but did so with diminished velocity, sitting in the 91-94 MPH range with his heater after working in the 95-98 MPH territory for the bulk of the year. His slider saw a similar dip in speed from 85-87 MPH to 82-84.

Rodón’s breakout came on the heels of two injury-ruined seasons. He made just 11 combined appearances between 2019-20, losing significant chunks of those respective campaigns with elbow and shoulder problems. Paired with his late-2021 yellow flags, the market devalued Rodón enough he didn’t find a long-term pact to his liking. The White Sox elected not to make him an $18.4MM qualifying offer, and he lingered on the open market until after the lockout. Rodón and agent Scott Boras expressed an early desire for a multi-year guarantee. The Giants put one on the table, but the two-year term with the vesting player option served as more of a modified pillow contract than a lengthy commitment. Rodón is making $21.5MM this year and has now earned the right to explore the market next offseason.

That late-offseason move has paid off brilliantly for San Francisco. Not only has he stayed healthy, Rodón has more or less doubled down on last year’s breakout. He carries a 2.86 ERA while fanning 30.8% of opponents with an 8.3% walk rate. That’s slightly worse rate production than he managed on Chicago’s south side, but it’s still top-of-the-rotation caliber and far better than any year he’d had before 2021. He’s also regained last year’s peak velocity, averaging 96 MPH on his four-seam while throwing his slider at 85.4 MPH.

Rodón’s work has been instrumental for a San Francisco club hanging right around the edges of the Wild Card race. The Giants entered play tonight half a game back of the National League’s final playoff spot. Rodón and Logan Webb have dazzled, helping to compensate for the loss of Anthony DeSclafani to a season-ending ankle issue. While various clubs would surely have interest in snagging Rodón for the stretch run, San Francisco seems likelier to add to the roster in hopes of snagging a playoff berth.

That’s all the more true because the Giants would likely be in line for draft compensation were Rodón to depart in free agency. Because Chicago elected not to tag him with a qualifying offer last year, he’d be eligible for a QO this winter — assuming the system remains in place. MLB and the Players Association are negotiating an international draft that, if implemented, would result in the removal of the QO system. How they’d compensate teams for free agent departures under a new arrangement is unclear. If no draft is agreed upon and the existing setup remains, Rodón would be a lock for a QO if he opts out. He’s not going to forfeit a $22.5MM salary to accept a subsequent one-year offer that’s likely to check in somewhere in the $18MM-20MM range.

Rodón’s place in next winter’s market will be influenced by how he performs over the second half, of course. He seemed trending towards a long-term deal at this point on the calendar last year, but the August shoulder concerns sidetracked that. That Rodón has continued to excel lends more faith to the idea he’s truly broken out as one of the game’s best arms. Should he surpass 150 innings and finish this season healthy, he’ll be one of the game’s marquee free agents.

Joe Musgrove looks as if he’ll be Rodón’s biggest competition for the title of top pitcher on the market, unless extension talks with the Padres culminate in a deal. Jacob deGrom has continued to maintain he plans to opt out of his deal, but he’s gone more than a year between MLB appearances and will hit free agency in advance of his age-35 season. deGrom, the sport’s best pitcher when healthy, looks likely to receive the loftiest average annual salary if he holds up down the stretch, but Rodón’s and Musgrove’s comparative youth could land them a larger guarantee over a longer term. Mike Clevinger, Zach Eflin, Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt, Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw and Nathan Eovaldi are among the other starters who are slated to hit the open market as part of a deep class.

List Of All-Star Roster Replacements

By Mark Polishuk | July 17, 2022 at 7:27pm CDT

7:25PM: Freddie Freeman is also joining the NL roster, as the league announced that the Dodgers first baseman is replacing Starling Marte.

4:04PM: The league announced that the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has now been added to the NL roster, taking the spot of Brewers righty Corbin Burnes.

July 17, 1:15PM: The Mariners have announced that Ty France will be joining the festivities as well. MLB later announced the addition as well, noting that he is replacing Mike Trout. With Trout not taking part, Byron Buxton will move into the starting center fielder role for the American League.

10:05AM: MLB has announced three more additions, with one of them being the previously reported addition of Williams. The other two are closers: Liam Hendriks of the White Sox and Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays. Those three will replace Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Fried.

July 16, 11:01PM: Brewers reliever Devin Williams has also been named to the NL roster, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).

7:11:PM: Four replacements were announced to the All-Star rosters, taking the spots of four other players who won’t be part of the Midsummer Classic. Dodgers left-hander Tyler Anderson, Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, and Braves third baseman Austin Riley will be joining the National League’s team, while Blue Jays second baseman Santiago Espinal has been named to the American League’s roster.

Espinal is replacing Jose Altuve, who was hit in the knee by a pitch on Thursday. Altuve sat out Friday’s action and is back in the Astros lineup tonight as the DH, but even though he is well enough to play, Altuve and the Astros will use the All-Star break to get the second baseman fully back to 100 percent. Altuve had been voted in as the AL’s starter at second baseman, but now the Guardians’ Andres Gimenez take over as the starter for Tuesday’s game.

Jazz Chisholm was voted as the NL’s starting second baseman, but the Marlins standout will also be missing the game due to his lower back injury. Chisholm has been on the 10-day injured list since June 28, but he has been working out at the Marlins’ spring camp, and taking part in baseball activities. There isn’t a set timeline for Chisholm’s return, but the team is hopeful Chisholm can be activated for the start of the second half. With Chisholm out, Jeff McNeil becomes the NL’s new starter at the keystone, while Cronenworth will take over the backup infield role.

Giants lefty Carlos Rodon is also battling injury, opening the door for Anderson to receive the first All-Star nod of his seven-year career. Rodon has both a blister and a split nail on the middle finger of his throwing hand, and told Henry Schulman and other reporters that he is skipping the ASG in order to give the injury time to properly heal. There isn’t yet any indication that Rodon might require a visit to the injured list, and since Rodon last pitched on Thursday, he’ll receive at least a full week off between starts.

Riley was perhaps the most prominent omission from the original All-Star roster, given how the Braves slugger has posted some huge numbers over the first half. However, as it often the case with “snubs,” the situation sorted itself out once other players started to drop out. Riley will be taking the place of Nolan Arenado, as the Cardinals third baseman will use the break to rest a lingering back problem.

Giants To Sign Carlos Rodon

By Steve Adams | March 14, 2022 at 12:25pm CDT

March 14: Rodon’s opt-out clause is contingent on him pitching at least 110 innings this season, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. If Rodon does not throw at least 110 innings in 2022, he will not be able to opt out of the contract’s second season.

March 11, 3:21pm: Rodon will earn $21.5MM in 2022 and $22.5MM in 2023, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

3:07pm: The Giants have reached a two-year, $44MM deal with left-hander Carlos Rodon, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Rodon, a client of the Boras Corporation, can opt out of the contract after the first year of the deal. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported shortly beforehand that Rodon was “very much in play” for the Giants.

The 29-year-old Rodon is arguably the top starter on the market at this point after a breakout 2021 season. The former No. 3 overall pick returned from a series of injury-marred seasons to turn in the finest performance of his career, dominating the American League for much of the season. Through late July, Rodon was one of the favorites for the Cy Young Award, having pitched to a sparkling 2.14 ERA with a sensational 36.6% strikeout rate against a 6.8% walk rate.

Rodon overwhelmed the Astros on July 18, pitching seven innings of scoreless, one-hit ball and racking up 10 punchouts. That, however, would be the last time the southpaw pitched more than five innings in an outing. Rodon lasted just four frames and allowed four runs in each of his next two starts. He rebounded to dominate a stripped-down Cubs team that had traded away most of its lineup, tossing five shutout innings with 11 strikeouts on Aug. 7.

Rodon then hit the injured list with shoulder fatigue, returned on Aug. 26, and went on to make only five starts over the regular season’s final 39 days. He reached 80 pitches in just one of those five appearances, and his fastball sat at a greatly diminished 93.2 mph in that time. Rodon was still effective in that time (2.35 ERA in 23 innings), but his strikeout rate was down to 27.2% — still strong, but not quite elite.

Heading into the postseason, Rodon’s status was a question mark, though he was ultimately included on the ALDS roster and deemed good to go for a Game 4 appearance. Rodon came back out slinging his fastball in the upper 90s, but he lasted just 2 2/3 innings in a game that would eventually result in Chicago being bounced from the playoffs.

On the whole, Rodon finished out the regular season with a 2.37 ERA, a 34.6% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate in 132 2/3 innings. He ranked among the league leaders in terms of swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase and overall strikeout rate. Statcast generally felt that Rodon’s breakout ERA was legitimate, pegging him for an “expected” 2.68 ERA in addition to a .189 expected opponents’ batting average and .316 expected slugging percentage.

As if the late-season shoulder woes weren’t troublesome enough, though, further questions surrounding Rodon’s health emerged after the White Sox opted against issuing him an $18.4MM qualifying offer. The fact that the team that knew Rodon best wasn’t comfortable with a one-year deal even after a season of that caliber cast serious doubt on the status of his shoulder. Earlier this morning, however, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted that the medicals on Rodon were “actually very good,” citing multiple teams who’d looked into the southpaw. Clearly the Giants agree to an extent, as they saw fit to promise Rodon more than double what he’d have received upon signing a qualifying offer. Because Rodon did not receive the QO, the Giants won’t have to surrender any draft picks to sign him — and the White Sox won’t receive any compensation for his departure.

Rodon’s contract may have two guaranteed years, but it’s essentially a more modern version of the oft-seen one-year “pillow” contract. If he remains healthy and pitches well, Rodon will be a lock to opt out of the contract in search of a nine-figure guarantee heading into what would be his age-30 season in 2023. (And, depending on whether MLB and the MLBPA agree to an international draft by July 25, he may not have to face a qualifying offer next winter.) If not, he’ll still have the safety net of a weighty salary for the 2023 season — after which he’d have another bite at the free-agent apple.

The signing isn’t without its risk for the Giants. Beyond Rodon’s late-season shoulder troubles, the left-hander had simply never performed anywhere near this level prior to the 2021 season. This is the type of performance that both the White Sox and their fanbase hoped for when Rodon was drafted No. 3 overall and immediately ranked as one of the sport’s best pitching prospects. However, Rodon was more of a third or fourth starter for the bulk of his career in Chicago, pitching to a 4.01 ERA through 494 1/3 innings from 2015-18. Along the way, he dealt with a litany of injury troubles, ranging from minor issues like a wrist strain to more severe problems in his shoulder (which required surgery in September of 2017) and in his elbow (which required Tommy John surgery in May of 2019).

Red flags aside, this type of short-term, high-annual value structure is one with which Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is quite comfortable. Zaidi, the former Dodgers general manager, pursued arrangements of this type often in Los Angeles, and since moving to the Giants he’s had a clear preference to avoid long-term contracts — even if it means paying a higher annual premium. Under Zaidi, the Giants haven’t given out a contact of more than three years in length to any free agent, and it was reported early in the offseason that the team was disinclined to pursue players expected to command nine-figure deals.

Notably, Rodon’s $22MM annual rate of pay is a match with that of now-former Giants righty Kevin Gausman in Toronto, but Gausman commanded a five-year pact. Gausman has a greater track record of durability, of course, but Rodon certainly has the ability to match or even exceed Gausman’s production, provided he can remain on the mound.

Rodon becomes the fourth and presumably final rotation addition for the Giants this winter. Four of San Francisco’s five starters — Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto — reached free agency at season’s end, leaving only budding ace Logan Webb as a lock for the ’22 rotation. The Giants have since re-signed both DeSclafani (three years, $36MM) and Wood (two years, $25MM) while also adding veteran righty Alex Cobb (two years, $20MM).

Some additional depth could always be brought in behind that quintet, as there’s little in the way of experience behind them. Out-of-options right-hander Tyler Beede is likely ticketed for a long relief role and is the sixth man up on the depth chart, but the other names on the Giants’ 40-man roster (e.g. Sammy Long, Sean Hjelle, Kervin Castro) are either light on experience or haven’t pitched in the Majors at all. San Francisco has Corey Oswalt in camp on a minor league deal, but the front office hasn’t exactly loaded up on depth options to cover rotation innings in the event of an injury. Given that each of Rodon, Wood and Cobb have extremely lengthy injury histories, some additional veteran stability would be prudent.

That said, with Webb and Rodon now forming a formidable one-two punch and a trio of strong mid-rotation options behind them, the Giants have the potential for one of the better staffs in the National League. The Giants still have work to do and seem likely to find some punch to add to the lineup in the coming days/weeks, but the rotation is in good shape and, unlike last season’s unit, can potentially remain in place for at least one year beyond the upcoming campaign.

AL Central Notes: Twins, IKF, Tigers, Anderson, Boyd, White Sox

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 5:44pm CDT

The Twins and Rangers combined on one of the most interesting early moves of the post-lockout period, agreeing to a trade earlier today that will see Isiah Kiner-Falefa and pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez head to Minnesota, while catcher Mitch Garver was dealt to Texas. Speaking with reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) about the deal, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said the Twins were first in touch about Kiner-Falefa before the lockout, and Garver wasn’t initially part of trade talks until it became that such a notable price was necessary to pry Kiner-Falefa away from the Rangers.

While the presence of Ryan Jeffers ultimately made Garver expendable, Minnesota now has a new everyday shortstop, and a player who has generally looked like one of the league’s better defensive players no matter where Texas lined him up on the diamond. Kiner-Falefa said he is happy to be getting an opportunity to start at what he considers his natural position of shortstop, and his addition means that the Twins can now keep Jorge Polanco at second base.

Free Agent Notes: Rodon, Kikuchi, Correa, Soler

By Sean Bavazzano | March 10, 2022 at 8:47pm CDT

News of the finally-ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement is dominating headlines, with good reason, but some free agent leads had quietly emerged during the final hours of CBA negotiations. Notably, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees had requested and received medicals for free agent pitchers Carlos Rodon and Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout. Heyman notes that the Yankees have received the medicals of free agent shortstop Carlos Correa as well, though disclaims that the team already has “two good shortstop prospects”, referring to touted youngsters Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

It has been speculated for some time that the Yankees minor league depth may impede their run at baseball’s top free agent, but their interest in Rodon and Kikuchi appears more straightforward. Despite possessing a high-upside stable of arms behind Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery, the Bronx rotation has no shortage of risk baked into it. Signing either Rodon or Kikuchi would add a similar high-risk, high-reward pitcher to the mix however, as these free agent targets dealt with injury and ineffectiveness down the stretch, respectively. Still, with a much higher luxury tax threshold to work with clubs like the Yankees are further incentivized to sign as many playoff-caliber arms as they can to see who sticks.

Some more free agent leads to usher in the post-lockout world…

Piggybacking off of Heyman’s tweet, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North reports that the Twins have received medicals on Rodon and Kikuchi as well. Per Wolfson, the Twins are still searching for “multiple arms, starters and relievers” which should come as little surprise to fans who have followed Minnesota’s offseason to date. A Rodon signing would likely represent an uncharacteristically large splash for the Twins, though it should be noted they’ve shown interest in high-risk pitchers in the past, to say nothing of their interest in Rodon last offseason.
Another free agent generating buzz is Jorge Soler, who Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports has received interest from more than six clubs. Now that the universal DH has been implemented Feinsand speculates that Soler will see his list of suitors grow. That theory certainly checks out on paper, as Soler has sported a useful 117 OPS+ since 2019, though his glovework during that same stretch has been decidedly below average.

MLBTR Poll: Carlos Rodon’s Contract

By Anthony Franco | January 19, 2022 at 8:20pm CDT

The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly before the transactions freeze. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the clear top two starters remaining, and it seems Kershaw’s market could be limited by geographical concerns. That’d leave Rodón as the lone potential top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency, but his status is complicated by health questions.

Rodón’s story has been covered a few times this offseason. After a few injury-plagued years, the former #3 overall pick broke out with an ace-caliber first half. He was a deserved All-Star and on a potential Cy Young pace until hitting the injured list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder in August. He missed a few weeks — albeit after it was apparent the White Sox were coasting to an AL Central title — before returning to make a few starts at the end of the season.

While Rodón continued to be effective after that IL stint, the average velocity on both his fastball and slider ticked down a couple miles per hour. Rodón’s fastball velocity ramped back up during his lone postseason start (his slider speed did not), but he was knocked out after just 2 2/3 innings during a rough outing against the Astros. The White Sox were eliminated before he got another opportunity to take the hill.

It wasn’t an ideal finish, but Rodón’s season-long production was excellent. He posted a 2.37 ERA with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate over 132 2/3 regular season innings, showcasing dominant swing-and-miss stuff at his best. Yet the White Sox declined to make the 29-year-old a qualifying offer, perhaps indicating some trepidation on the club’s part about his health. Given that durability uncertainty, MLBTR forecasted Rodón to take a one-year, $25MM deal in hopes of duplicating his excellent 2021 numbers in search of nine figures next offseason.

That doesn’t seem to be a course of action Rodón’s considering — or, at least, it wasn’t on the table early in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told reporters in November they’d have rejected a QO had the Sox made one, saying the southpaw was on the hunt for a multi-year deal. Yet there were essentially no substantive rumors regarding Rodón in the weeks leading up to the lockout, leaving his market highly uncertain. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined his best potential landing spots last month.

What kind of deal might Rodón command? Perhaps the market’s other starters can provide some idea. Max Scherzer landed the biggest contract of any starter this offseason, signing for a whopping $130MM over three years. He’s a unique case, with the next couple tiers offering cleaner possible comps. Robbie Ray received five guaranteed years and $115MM, with an opt-out possibility after the third season. Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110MM.

Aside from that trio of nine-figure hurlers, the biggest starting pitching deals went to Eduardo Rodríguez (five years/$77MM, with an opt-out clause after the second season), Marcus Stroman (three years/$71MM, with an opt-out after the second season) and Jon Gray (four years/$56MM). Below them are Steven Matz (four years/$44MM) and Anthony DeSclafani (three years/$36MM).

Where will Rodón fit into that mix? What does the MLBTR readership think his post-lockout contract will be?

(poll links for app users)

For How Many Years Will Carlos Rodon Sign?

Three 40.54% (3,313 votes)

Two 24.35% (1,990 votes)

One 19.14% (1,564 votes)

Four 11.65% (952 votes)

Five or more 4.32% (353 votes)

Total Votes: 8,172

In What Range Will Carlos Rodon's Guarantee Fall?

Between $20MM and $44MM 31.39% (2,140 votes)

Between $45MM and $56MM 22.16% (1,511 votes)

Between $57MM and $77MM 21.55% (1,469 votes)

Below $20MM 14.99% (1,022 votes)

Between $78MM and $100MM 7.36% (502 votes)

Over $100MM 2.55% (174 votes)

Total Votes: 6,818

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