Latest On Braves’ Offseason Plans
A potential trade of White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most prominent storylines of the offseason to this point, as White Sox GM Chris Getz has made clear that his club is operating with no untouchables as they look to retool after a 101-loss season. One of the teams most frequently connected to Cease is the Braves, who have a clear need in their rotation after losing Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery and subsequently dealing him to the Royals earlier this offseason.
MLB.com’s Mark Bowman pushed back against reports of Atlanta’s involvement in the Cease sweepstakes today, however, even as speculation regarding the right-hander has begun to intensify alongside the start of the Winter Meetings. Bowman acknowledges that the 27-year-old hurler was on the club’s radar earlier in the offseason but indicates that there isn’t “currently a fit” between the sides while suggesting that Atlanta’s level of interest and involvement in trade talks with Chicago has been “overblown.”
Bowman’s report also indicates that the Braves haven’t shown “serious interest” in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. While the Braves are not among the teams that have been most frequently connected to Ohtani’s market this offseason, Bowman’s characterization is a significant departure from a report earlier today from Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who suggested that the Braves not only have shown interest in Ohtani but are one of the teams still “actively involved” in the negotiation process.
While Bowman downplays the club’s interest in making a headline-grabbing move for Cease or Ohtani, he nonetheless suggests that the Braves are “not done” following last night’s move to acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White from the Mariners, leaving the door open to the possibility the Braves make “at least one more big move.” Such a deal could even come in the form of a trade for a front-line starter, with Bowman suggesting Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow as possible alternatives to Cease on the trade market.
Of course, it’s worth noting that the club is in uncharted territory in terms of payroll. After posting a franchise record payroll of $205MM in 2023 (per RosterResource), the Braves are currently projected for an Opening Day payroll of $220MM in 2024, with a luxury tax figure of just over $256MM. That puts them right up against the second tax threshold of $257MM, meaning that the club would surely need to shed payroll before making further moves if they hope to avoid that second threshold. Bowman echoes reporting from earlier today that suggested the Braves will attempt to flip Gonzales, who is owed $12.25MM in 2024, before the offseason comes to a close. In addition to the possibility of flipping Gonzales, Bowman suggests the club could look to “sell high” on either DH Marcell Ozuna or closer Raisel Iglesias in deals that would simultaneously shed salary while potentially bringing in additional talent.
Ozuna is owed $18MM in 2024, the final guaranteed year of his contract that also includes a $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2025. The 33-year-old slugger is coming off a strong season at the plate during which he slashed .274/.346/.558 while crushing 40 home runs, 29 doubles, and a triple. While he’s largely limited to DH at this point in his career, he’d surely draw interest on the trade market from clubs looking to upgrade their lineup; just six hitters reached the 40-homer plateau in 2023, and just four posted a higher ISO than Ozuna’s .285 figure.
Iglesias, meanwhile, posted a 2.75 ERA and 3.26 FIP while collecting 33 saves for the Braves across 55 2/3 innings of work. It’s the fourth-consecutive season in which Iglesias has posted an ERA below 3.o0 as the 33-year-old has emerged as one of the most reliable closers in the league in recent years. Excellent as Iglesias has been, he’s guaranteed a $16MM salary in each of the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum to pay for a reliever even with Iglesias’s pedigree. Bowman also points out the club has plenty of established back-end relief options who could anchor the bullpen if Iglesias were to be moved including left-hander A.J. Minter and offseason addition Reynaldo Lopez, though it’s worth noting the club currently plans to stretch the righty out as a potential starting option for 2024.
Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves
The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.
Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.
Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.
Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.
Some more trade-related news from around baseball…
- Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
- Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.
NL Notes: Cease, Braves, Nationals, Hampson, D’Backs
The Braves are known to have trade interest in Dylan Cease, and given the team’s penchant for signing players to long-term extensions, locking up a Georgia native like Cease would seem like a logical next step if a deal can be worked out to obtain the righty from the White Sox. However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal points out a possible obstacle — Cease is represented by Scott Boras, who traditionally advises his clients to test free agency rather than sign long-term extensions.
Enough high-profile Boras clients have signed extensions that this isn’t at all a hard-and-fast rule, since as Rosenthal notes, Boras will ultimately operate according to his client’s demands. But it is perhaps noteworthy for this particular scenario, since Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos rarely acquires Boras Corporations clients, even though both Anthopoulos and Boras have denied any lack of communication or lack of connection between the two sides. Trading for and extending Cease would be a way of putting this narrative to bed, though it remains to be seen if Atlanta will instead opt for another frontline pitcher besides Cease as the Braves continue to look for rotation help.
More from the National League…
- Not much has changed in the Lerner family’s attempts to sell the Nationals, as the search is now approaching two full years since news first broke of the Lerners’ explorations about a sale. The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes provides something of an update on the situation, though Ted Leonsis remains the top suitor but still seems unwilling to meet the Lerners’ desired price of around $2.4 billion. Leonsis’ last offer topped the $2 billion mark, but the Lerners don’t appear in any hurry to make a sale unless Leonsis or another bidder ups the ante. The seemingly neverending dispute with the Orioles about MASN broadcasting revenues also still remains a sticking point in any ownership discussions. In terms of how this translates to the on-field product, Janes notes that the Nationals’ low payroll has more to do with the team’s rebuild strategy than it does a concerted effort to cut costs in advance of a potential sale.
- The Diamondbacks had some interest in Garrett Hampson before the utilityman signed with the Royals earlier this week, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The versatile Hampton would’ve been a backup at several positions off the bench, and in particularly been a right-handed hitting complement to Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo at center field or shortstop, respectively. Right-handed hitting is a priority for the D’Backs in general, and Piecoro suggests that J.D. Martinez might be a candidate for a return to Arizona, based off GM Mike Hazen’s recent comments about how the Diamondbacks could be open to a DH-centric player who swings from the right side. Arizona has already landed one notable right-handed bat this offseason in acquiring Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners.
- Sticking with the National League champs, the Diamondbacks named Shaun Larkin as their new director of player development earlier this week. Larkin has spent the last three seasons as the Dodgers‘ field coordinator as part of an eight-year tenure in L.A., and he previously had a long history as a minor league player, coach, and manager in Cleveland’s farm system. Larkin’s hiring is the latest move in a D’Backs offseason that has seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office and coaching ranks, though as Hazen told Piecoro, “we 100 percent expected it. This is what happens when you have a successful season….Bringing some outside perspectives into the organization in terms of what’s going on in scouting and player development around the game, I think is important.”
East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Rays
The Nationals finished the 2023 season with a 71-91 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the National League, even as it represented a substantial improvement over the club’s 107-loss 2022 campaign. While the club has sat out the top of the free agent market during the recent seasons of their rebuild, it seems that may not be the case this offseason as the club looks to upgrade at the infield corners and at DH, per TalkNats. The club has already been linked to a reunion with third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who was posting career-best numbers with the Nats prior to being dealt to the Cubs at the trade deadline. The report suggests that the club has interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins and outfield/DH slugger Jorge Soler in addition to Candelario. The report goes on to indicate that Washington has been “very active” in the starting pitching market to this point in the offseason, though it does not connect any specific names to the club.
The rumored targets make sense for the Nationals. The club has a major hole at third base given that former top prospect Carter Kieboom has failed to establish himself the big league level. Kieboom’s .207/.266/.368 slash line (70 wRC+) in 2023 was largely in line with his career numbers of .199/.297/.301 (65 wRC+), and Candelario or another third base addition would almost certainly represent a significant upgrade over the 26-year-old. Meanwhile, an addition at first base or DH could help the club improve an offense that currently figures to use journeyman Joey Meneses at one position without an established starter at the other.
As for the rotation, the club has several interesting young arms such as Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore that they figure to prioritize developing, with veterans such as Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams who can reliably eat innings. That being said, the Nationals’ starting staff posted a combined 5.02 ERA last season, the sixth-worst figure in the majors. What’s more, the club’s 5.30 FIP in the rotation was better than only the lowly Rockies, while their starting staff combined for just 4.9 fWAR, better than only Colorado and Oakland. That leaves plenty of room for improvement if the club decides to add even a lower-level free agent such as Matthew Boyd or Frankie Montas to its rotation, to say nothing of a more impactful addition.
More from around MLB’s East divisions…
- While the Mets have reportedly shifted their focus away from superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the club is still looking at potential impact additions this offseason. They’ve long been connected to top-of-the-market arm Yoshinobu Yamamoto as they explore potential rotation upgrades, and Heyman adds that the Mets are looking into “nearly every available frontline starter” in addition to Yamamoto, including southpaws Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While Heyman notes the club is unlikely to land a rental arm such as Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber on the trade market, he does suggest the club’s interest in rotation upgrades extends to White Sox starter Dylan Cease, who is under team control for the next two seasons and has seen plenty of trade buzz this offseason. Rotation upgrades make plenty of sense for New York after the club shipped out veteran aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline over the summer, leaving Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, and newly-signed righty Luis Severino as the club’s only rotation locks entering 2024.
- The Rays have interest in a reunion with right-hander Cooper Criswell even after non-tendering him last month, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Criswell, 27, made his big league debut as a member of the Angels in 2021 with a one-game cup of coffee that lasted just 1 1/3 innings. He spent the past two seasons as a member of the Rays, with a 5.45 ERA and 5.00 FIP in 36 1/3 innings of work across 11 appearances. While those numbers are certainly nothing to write home about, Criswell’s ability to go multiple innings and 46.8% career groundball rate at the big league level could make him a worthwhile depth addition for a Rays club that relied on 40 different pitchers throughout the 2023 campaign.
Cardinals Still Showing Interest In Dylan Cease
Even after revamping their rotation with a rapid-fire trio of free agent signings, the Cardinals are still in the mix for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the press conference to introduce Sonny Gray that he “doubted” his next move would be to add more starting pitching but conceded that he remains “open-minded” to further rotation additions (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).
The Cardinals, of course, signed Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in just over a week’s time, adding a trio of arms who combined for 97 starts in 2023. The addition of Gray added a front-end presence to the St. Louis rotation, while Lynn and Gibson at the very least provided some reliable bulk innings on the back end. It seems clear that the Cards prioritized some stability after years of injury-related starting pitching crunches at Busch Stadium, and Cease would be a fourth addition in that vein.
In terms of pure results, the 27-year-old Cease (28 next month) has been on both ends of the spectrum recently. In 2022, he finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting, while his 2023 campaign saw his ERA more than double from 2.20 to 4.58. Cease’s velocity dipped by a mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell three percentage points, and he yielded far more hard contact than he did during that elite 2022 campaign. What remained constant, however, was the righty’s availability. Cease made 33 starts this past season — his fourth straight year with a full slate of starts. Since 2020, Cease leads all MLB pitchers with 109 games started.
As things stand, the Cardinals project for a five-man rotation of Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, Gibson and Steven Matz. Mikolas and Matz are both signed through 2025 — Mikolas at a total of $32MM and Matz at $24MM. There’s been some speculation about the possibility of an eventual Matz trade, but the Cardinals are also surely reluctant to thin out their depth too much after being burned by a lack of depth in multiple seasons recently.
Cease would give the Cardinals even more bulk innings but do so while carrying more upside than perhaps any member of their current staff. He’d surely benefit from a move out of the White Sox’ homer-happy stadium and away from their poorly ranked defense. With two years of club control remaining, a projected $8.8MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and clear Cy Young-caliber upside on the mound, bidding for Cease’s services will be fierce.
Already this winter, he’s been connected to the Braves, Dodgers, Reds and Orioles. That’s surely just a fraction of the teams who’ve at least reached out to the ChiSox to gauge the asking price. The Cardinals’ recent free-agent activity might lessen their urgency relative to some of those other suitors, but it’s nevertheless of note that they remain in the mix at all.
From a payroll perspective, they can likely make a Cease acquisition work without even dramatically raising their spending from last year’s levels. The Cards backloaded Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract such that he’ll be paid just $10MM in 2024. Roster Resource projects a $180MM payroll right now, which is only narrowly higher than last year’s Opening Day mark. And the Cards could yet trade arbitration-eligible names like Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, which would impact that payroll projection.
Someone like O’Neill — a free agent at season’s end — isn’t likely to hold much appeal to the White Sox, who’ll be looking for controllable talent to build around in the near future. But generally speaking, the Cardinals have a bevy of young, MLB-ready talent that could interest Chicago. Names like Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker and Matthew Liberatore all have at least three seasons of club control remaining, and that’s not even counting some interesting upper-minors prospects who’ve yet to debut but are relatively close to the Majors (e.g. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence).
As for the timing of a potential Cease trade, reports on the matter are conflicting in nature; MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested just yesterday that Cease’s market was heating up and a trade could come together by Sunday evening. Not 18 hours later, Rosenthal reported nearly the opposite — that Sox GM Chris Getz has been indicating to teams he prefers to wait until after the top free-agent names have come off the board.
Latest On Dylan Cease
Nov. 30: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a very different scenario regarding Cease, writing that Getz & Co. prefer to wait to move him until after the top starters on the market have signed. Clubs with current interest (e.g. Cincinnati, Baltimore), aren’t likely to play for the top names in free agency anyhow and will thus remain in play even if the Sox take their time trading Cease. And, by waiting until the top of the free agent market thins out, the Sox could potentially attract more bidders in the form of those who miss out on the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, etc.
Nov. 29: The White Sox have discussed Dylan Cease trades with teams since the offseason got underway. It seems they’ve gained some amount of traction, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that talks have “intensified” this week. Morosi suggests the ChiSox may pull the trigger on a deal prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin Sunday evening.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has linked the Dodgers and Braves to the hard-throwing righty in recent weeks. There are surely plenty of other teams that have been in touch with first-year general manager Chris Getz. Morosi calls the Braves one of the “finalists” for Cease’s services. That implies the Sox have narrowed down the field of suitors, although there’s no clarity as to how many clubs are still in the running.
Cease has been a popular trade target going back to the deadline. The Sox elected not to move him over the summer. A few weeks after the deadline, owner Jerry Reinsdorf dismissed front office leaders Rick Hahn and Ken Williams. He bumped Getz from assistant GM to the top role not long thereafter. Getz has rather bluntly discussed the lack of depth on the MLB roster. He has made clear there aren’t any players who are categorically off the table in trade discussions.
While Luis Robert Jr. probably has the most appeal of anyone on the team, Cease is the more likely of their high-value targets to change uniforms. The Sox have their franchise center fielder signed to a contract with club options running through the 2027 season. Cease is under team control for two years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.
Cease, who turns 28 next month, is coming off a relative down season. His ERA jumped from 2.20 during his Cy Young runner-up campaign in 2022 to 4.58 this year. Cease lost a couple points off his strikeout rate but still fanned a quality 27.3% of opposing hitters while taking the ball for a full slate of 33 starts.
Despite the relative down season, he remains the clear best pitcher on the roster. While Getz has expressed a willingness to make significant changes, he hasn’t characterized the situation as a rebuild. It stands to reason they’d look for major league and/or upper minors talent in a Cease trade. They took a volume approach to their first major trade of the offseason, acquiring five players (four of whom are MLB-ready depth types) from the Braves for reliever Aaron Bummer two weeks ago.
Latest On Red Sox’s Pitching Targets
The Red Sox are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. A pair of high-end starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, have come off the board. There wasn’t any indication the Sox were deeply involved in the bidding for either right-hander. Sean McAdam of MassLive writes that the Sox have been seeking to add a starter via trade before turning to free agency.
At the same time, one notable trade candidate doesn’t appear to be strongly on their radar. McAdam reports that the Red Sox have not been actively involved in discussions with the White Sox regarding Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been mentioned as a target for the Dodgers and Braves and has surely drawn unreported interest from other teams seeking rotation help.
That Boston doesn’t seem as involved in Cease discussions is a bit of a surprise. He still has two seasons of arbitration control; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary, a bargain price for a pitcher with his upside. Alongside Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow (the latter of whom seems unlikely to land within the AL East if the Rays trade him), Cease has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.
The 27-year-old (28 next month) isn’t coming off a great season. Cease allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine, more than two runs above the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022. A spike in hard contact and a slight dip in strikeout rate surely contributed to that less inspiring run prevention. Yet even with that downturn in whiffs, Cease still fanned an above-average 27.2% of batters faced behind an excellent 13.6% swinging strike percentage. His fastball averaged just under 96 MPH, while his slider remained a swing-and-miss offering.
While the Sox may be focused on trade targets aside from Cease, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his front office are surely keeping an eye on the top hurlers on the open market. They’ve been tied to NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Jordan Montgomery. McAdam indicates the Sox also expressed some interest in Blake Snell when they met with the defending NL Cy Young winner’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during the GM Meetings.
Snell rode a laughably dominant second half to the second Cy Young of his career. He finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 innings. Snell led the majors with 99 walks but allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest mark for any qualified starter. That’s in large part thanks to a stellar 31.5% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted Snell to land $200MM over seven seasons. He has also been linked to the Dodgers, Giants and incumbent Padres. McAdam suggests that Snell, a Seattle-area native, may prefer to sign with a West Coast team.
If that is indeed the case, that wouldn’t bode especially well for the Red Sox’s chances. The market’s other top southpaw, Montgomery, has a tie to the Northeast. While Montgomery is a South Carolina native, McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive note that he is spending the winter in Boston while his wife McKenzie begins a medical residency at a hospital in the area. It’s not clear if that’ll have any impact on his free agent preferences.
Orioles Notes: Rotation, Nola, Stadium
For the past year, the big question for the Orioles is whether they’ll add a high-end starting pitcher. While Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez took steps forward in 2023 (during the second half of the season in the latter’s case), there’s clearly still room for another pitcher who can slot into the upper half of the rotation.
O’s general manager Mike Elias acknowledged as much during the GM Meetings a few weeks ago. Baltimore has done virtually nothing in free agency during Elias’ five-year tenure. They’re still yet to sign a free agent to a multi-year contract. Much of that has been amidst a rebuild, so there’s a possibility for Elias and his front office to be more aggressive.
To that end, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the O’s had shown interest in Aaron Nola during his free agency. There’s no indication that Baltimore ever put forth a formal offer before Nola returned to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172MM contract. The right-hander was obviously going to require a commitment well into nine figures, so the O’s being involved at all hints at some willingness to pursue a notable free agent strike.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell should land more significant contracts than the one that Nola received. Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and NPB star Shota Imanaga are among the next tier of free agent starters. Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball wrote yesterday that Yamamoto — whom MLBTR predicts for a nine-year, $225MM contract — is likely to be out of Baltimore’s comfort zone financially.
Free agency is only one means of bringing in pitching talent. There are a few notable names who could be available on the trade market. It’s hard to envision the Rays moving Tyler Glasnow within the AL East, but each of Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes have also been floated as candidates. Dubroff suggests the O’s have interest in both hurlers — no surprise given their talent and the team’s desire for a rotation upgrade.
Baltimore still has a top-tier farm system despite the prospect graduations of Rodriguez and Rookie of the Year winner Gunnar Henderson. It’s safe to assume that duo and top shortstop prospect Jackson Holliday are off the table in talks. Players like Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo are among numerous younger talents whom Elias and his staff could make available if they pursued a trade for a high-end starter (particularly one like Cease, who has two seasons of remaining arbitration control).
Also on the docket for the Orioles this winter: finding clarity on their lease agreement with the Maryland Stadium Authority. The franchise announced in late September that they had agreed to a 30-year lease extension at Camden Yards. One day later, the Baltimore Sun reported that it was instead a non-binding memorandum of understanding. That agreement would provide the Orioles long-term development rights around the stadium but did not represent an official extension of the lease.
With the current lease expiring on December 31, the Sun’s Jeff Barker reports that the state and the team are considering decoupling the lease from the development rights to facilitate getting a binding lease in place within the next five weeks. As Barker points out, the legislative hurdles to be cleared are lower for the lease agreement itself than for the accompanying development plans. Tabling those discussions (even temporarily) could get an official lease extension in place to firmly put to rest any questions about the O’s future in Baltimore. In 2019, owner John Angelos pledged the organization will remain in the city “as long as Fort McHenry is watching over the harbor.”
Braves, White Sox Have Discussed Dylan Cease Trade
The Braves are among the teams in ongoing trade talks with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Atlanta had been connected to a pair of notable free agent starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but Nola re-signed in Philadelphia last week and Gray is reportedly wrapping up a deal with the Cardinals today.
With their ostensible top two free-agent targets off the board, it’s not a surprise to see the Braves being more prominently connected to the trade market. Cease’s White Sox are generally open for business on the heels of a catastrophic 2023 season that led to the firing of longtime baseball ops executives Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams. Assistant GM Chris Getz has since been elevated to the GM’s chair, and Getz plainly stated following the season that there are no untouchables on his roster. Cease, with two remaining years of club control, is among the likelier and most appealing trade candidates Getz has at his disposal.
Cease, 28 next month, was the American League Cy Young runner-up in 2022 but had a down season in 2023 — one of the myriad factors which contributed to the disastrous season on Chicago’s south side. His 2022 campaign featured 184 frames of 2.20 ERA ball with a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate, but that version of Cease appeared far too infrequently for the Sox’s liking in 2023. This past season saw the righty post a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 innings, showing diminished fastball velocity (95.8 mph, down from 96.9 mph a year prior) and a lesser strikeout rate (27.3%).
[Related: Looking for a Match in a Dylan Cease Trade]
Cease made a nominal improvement in his walk rate (10.1%), but virtually every other aspect of his profile backed up in ’23. His opponents’ average exit velocity and hard-hit rates exploded, jumping from 86.8 mph and 31.2% in 2022 to 90 mph and 41.5% in 2023. Both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rate dropped sharply as well, and Cease allowed an average of 0.97 homers per nine frames after yielding 0.76 HR/9 in 2022. He had some obvious struggles due to the poor defense behind him, with a career-high .330 average on balls in play (up from .260 the previous year), but that alone is not the driving force behind his struggles. Some of the BABIP spike was likely of his own doing anyhow; the uptick in hard contact he yielded certainly contributed to more balls finding their way through an already porous defense.
Although Cease’s 2023 season wasn’t a particularly strong year in terms of run-prevention, he still boasts well above-average velocity and bat-missing capabilities. Fielding-independent metrics (3.72 FIP, 4.10 SIERA) felt he was better than that lackluster ERA, even if he wasn’t as sharp as he was in 2022. He’s also proven himself a durable and reliable arm, as he’s made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons. Add in a reasonable $8.8MM projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and it’s abundantly clear that Cease still possesses plenty of trade value. Consider that Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, a pair of innings eaters in their late 30s who don’t have the same upside as Cease’s 2022 campaign, signed for $11MM and $12MM, respectively, with the Cardinals. Cease’s projected $8.8MM salary is a clear bargain — particularly with another year of arbitration set to follow.
As things stand, the Atlanta rotation projects to consist of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, with a fifth-spot competition headlined by AJ Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd and (eventually) a returning Ian Anderson, who underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season. The Braves have prioritized adding a playoff-caliber arm to that group, both to safeguard against injury for the top of the rotation and also to protect against the potential departure of Fried, who’ll be a free agent following the season. Cease would accomplish both of those goals.
In many ways, a trade is the more sensible route for the Braves to go in terms of their rotation need anyhow. Atlanta’s projected payroll is already just shy of $207MM, per Roster Resource, but their luxury-tax obligations are far more consequential. The Braves project at around $241MM of luxury considerations, which already has them north of the $237MM luxury tax barrier. This is the second straight year they’ll be paying the luxury tax, so they’ll be penalized at a 30% rate for the first $20MM by which they exceed the tax and a 42% rate for the next $20MM. Signing a free agent like Nola or Gray would’ve come with around $7-9MM in luxury penalties this year — on top of the player’s actual salary. And, since the Braves are set up to be third-time payors in 2024, they’d be facing even steeper tax percentages next season.
Cease, of course, will come with those same penalties, but a 30% tax on his projected $8.8MM salary would bring the total outlay for acquiring him (speaking strictly financially) to around $11.5MM — a far more palatable price point than the free-agent market has to offer. Atlanta would also have the offseason to explore a possible extension with Cease — an Atlanta-area native (Milton, Ga.). The Braves have had plenty of success both acquiring and extending players with local ties, be it through the draft or through trades.
The Braves’ farm system has been stripped down by previous trades to acquire names like Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and several relievers (Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Raisel Iglesias). They still have some appealing young talent, particularly in the upper minors or even some young big leaguers who’ve already gotten their feet wet. Smith-Shawver, Dodd and infielder Vaughn Grissom, for instance, would all hold appeal to the White Sox (and to other potential trade partners with pitching to peddle). The Sox and Braves already lined up on one swap this offseason, with Chicago sending the aforementioned lefty reliever Bummer to Atlanta.
Atlanta figures to face steep competition with regard to Cease, who offers one of the most tantalizing blends of raw talent, affordable salary and remaining club control on this offseason’s trade market. MLBTR ranked Cease sixth on our original list of the offseason’s top 25 trade candidates.
The Dodgers are already known to be interested, and just about any other team in need of starting pitching figures to check in — particularly those that may not want to spend top-of-the-market dollars to augment their starting staffs in free agency. That group could include the Reds, Pirates, D-backs, Padres and Orioles, to list a speculative few.
Dodgers Interested In Trading For Dylan Cease
The Dodgers and White Sox have discussed the possibility of Dylan Cease heading to Los Angeles, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. There isn’t any indication that a trade is particularly close, or whether or not this was a due diligence inquiry from the Dodgers given the club’s obvious need for pitching.
While the White Sox aren’t exactly rebuilding, new GM Chris Getz has directly said that he is open to trade offers as the Sox look for ways to address their many needs. Thursday’s trade of Aaron Bummer to the Braves saw Chicago pick up at least starting middle infielder (Nicky Lopez) and perhaps two (Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster) new arms for the starting rotation, bringing some depth onto a depleted roster.
Apart from trading Luis Robert Jr., dealing Cease would be the biggest move the White Sox could make to quickly add a lot more talent to the organization. MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored Cease’s trade market, citing 14 teams that make sense as trade suitors given Cease’s past quality and his relatively inexpensive price tag over two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons. Cease is projected for an $8.8MM salary in 2024, so even if a big performance next year raises his 2025 salary significantly, that still adds up to two seasons of front-of-the-rotation pitching for around $22MM.
Over three full seasons as a starter, Cease was solid in 2021, outstanding in 2022, and then fairly ordinary last year, struggling to a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. A 4.10 SIERA is a little more flattering, as Cease’s .330 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate certainly contributed to his issues, plus it is fair to wonder if he was affected by the overall malaise of the Southsiders’ disastrous 101-loss season. Cease’s subpar walk rates and his tendency (apart from in 2022) to surrender hard contact are red flags, but there’s still a lot to like about the right-hander as he enters his age-28 season.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, Cease represents a much surer thing than most every other pitcher in their projected 2024 rotation. Walker Buehler returns from a 2023 season entirely lost to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will miss at least the first half of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough is the only other experienced arm within a pitching mix that includes a lot of rookies and second-year pitchers. Bobby Miller has claim on one rotation spot behind Buehler, but Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are all varying degrees of question marks.
Trading from this pitching depth might be a risk for Los Angeles, given all the uncertainty about their rotation. However, on paper, this is still a good crop of young arms that would be attractive to other teams, particularly a club like the White Sox in need of controllable pitching. Speculatively, one would imagine Miller is off-limits for the Dodgers in trade talks, but moving one or even two of the other pitchers might be feasible for a Los Angeles club that clearly wants to win now. Or, L.A. might try to tempt the Sox with some of its many quality position players in the minors — top prospects Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya might have particular appeal to Chicago since the Sox are very thin in the catching ranks.