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Elvis Andrus

White Sox Sign Elvis Andrus

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Aug. 19: The White Sox have officially announced the signing of Andrus, with Sosa getting optioned to make room on the active roster. A space on the 40-man was created by yesterday’s outright of Yoan Aybar.

Aug. 18: The White Sox are in agreement on a contract with free-agent shortstop Elvis Andrus, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). He’s expected to join their Major League squad in Cleveland tomorrow. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported late last night that the Sox were in talks with Andrus, who was released by the Athletics yesterday.

Elvis Andrus | D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

The 33-year-old Andrus (34 next week) is a natural fit for a White Sox club that will be without Tim Anderson for the next three to five weeks as he continues rehabbing a torn ligament in his left hand. Andrus isn’t a premier defender at this stage of his career but is a more natural fit at short than young Lenyn Sosa, who’s been handling the position in place of Anderson recently and has managed just a .118/.143/.235 slash in an admittedly small sample of 35 plate appearances. Andrus’ .237/.301/.378 line isn’t a major improvement but is only narrowly shy of the league-average hitter in 2022.

That’s a far cry from Andrus’ .297/.337/.471 peak in 2017, when he also smashed 20 homers and swiped 25 bags to go along with quality defensive contributions at shortstop. Plugging a veteran shortstop with only slightly below-league-average offense into the lineup wasn’t something the Sox wouldn’t have been able to do just a few days ago, however, so they’re surely quite pleased to be able to add Andrus to the fold.

Defensive Runs Saved pegs Andrus’ glovework at a dismal -6 runs this season, but Ultimate Zone Rating (2.4) and Outs Above Average (zero/average) are more bullish. Even if the defense is now slightly sub-par, Sosa is considered by scouting reports a second baseman who’s ill-equipped to handle shortstop, and the early returns (-2 DRS, -2 OAA in just 41 innings) do nothing to suggest otherwise. Andrus ought to be a steadier option at the position.

Prior to his release, Andrus was playing out the final season of an eight-year, $120MM contract originally signed with the Rangers. The White Sox will only owe him the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the season, with the A’s still on the hook for the remainder of Andrus’ $14MM salary. That previous contract included a vesting $15MM player option upon Andrus reaching 550 plate appearances — he’s currently at 386 — but that’s a moot point now that he’s been released from his prior contract and signed a new one with Chicago. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the season.

It’s been a frustrating season at Guaranteed Rate Field, where the Sox have endured lengthy absences from key players like Lance Lynn, Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal and now Anderson (to say nothing of shorter IL stints for Luis Robert, Lucas Giolito and others). Things haven’t gone as the front office envisioned when putting together this enviable young core, but the Sox have played better ball of late and, despite some early-season doldrums, are only two games behind the division-leading Guardians and one game back of the second-place Twins. The American League Central should be the tightest three-team race in Major League Baseball down the stretch, so even if Andrus proves a mere incremental upgrade, that marginal improvement could play a pivotal role.

White Sox In Talks With Elvis Andrus

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The White Sox are in discussions with shortstop Elvis Andrus and are a “likely” landing spot for him, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets. An agreement has not yet been finalized, however. Andrus was released by the Athletics yesterday afternoon.

Andrus, 33, was released by the Athletics yesterday as Oakland continued its shift toward a youth movement. He’s in the final guaranteed year of his contract, though the A’s were surely motivated to cut ties with Andrus due to the vesting player option on his contract. The eight-year, $120MM contract Andrus signed way back in 2013 contained a $15MM option for the 2023 season that vests as a player option if Andrus is both traded (as he was from Texas to Oakland two years ago) and accumulates 550 plate appearances this season. With 386 trips to the plate under his belt, Andrus was on pace to hit that mark, and the A’s, clearly unable to find a taker at the trade deadline (due in no small part to that option), cut ties entirely this week.

The option should now be a moot point, as Andrus has been released from that contract and will be signing a new pact with whichever team he ultimately chooses — be it the ChiSox or another potential suitor. The Sox and any other club need only pay Andrus the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the Major League roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the A’s still owe him, but Oakland is on the hook for the vast majority of the remainder of this season’s $14MM salary. Andrus will again be a free agent at the end of the season.

Andrus’ bat has deteriorated considerably since his 2017 peak, when he hit .297/.337/.471 with 20 homers, 25 steals and standout defense at shortstop with the Rangers. He’s hitting .237/.301/.373 on the season, a tepid output but one that clocks in just shy of the league-average .243/.312/.396 output for hitters in 2022. He’s been about three percent worse than average, when weighting for his spacious home park, by measure of wRC+ (97). Andrus has connected on eight home runs — already his most since 2019 — to go along with 24 doubles and a 7-for-11 showing in stolen base attempts.

Defensively, Andrus has drawn mixed ratings. Defensive Runs Saved (-6) feels that this has been one of Andrus’ worst seasons with the glove, though Ultimate Zone Rating (2.6) and Outs Above Average (zero) feel he’s been average or slightly above. He’s made nine errors (five fielding, four throwing) through 848 innings in the field this season.

The White Sox jumped out as an obvious landing spot for Andrus the moment he was released, as they recently lost shortstop Tim Anderson for anywhere from four to six weeks due to a torn ligament in his left hand. Rookie Lenyn Sosa has gotten the first handful of looks at shortstop in his place but posted only a .118/.143/.235 slash through 35 plate appearances.

Even with some all-around decline in his skills as he progresses into his mid-30s, Andrus would appear to be an upgrade for a White Sox team that has been beset by injuries throughout a generally disappointing season. And for all the injuries and struggles they’ve endured this year, the South Siders are still only two games back of the lead in the American League Central, so there ought to be plenty of motivation to bring in some veteran help at a position of sudden need.

Athletics Release Elvis Andrus

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The A’s announced Wednesday that they’ve released veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus. Infielder Sheldon Neuse is up from Triple-A Las Vegas to take his spot on the roster.

Once Andrus wasn’t traded either in the offseason or at the trade deadline earlier this month, the writing was on the wall for Andrus, whose contract contains a vesting player option for the 2023 season that would become kick in upon reaching 550 plate appearances. The rebuilding Athletics unsurprisingly had no interest in allowing that option to vest, and the mere presence of that option has made the possibility of trading Andrus seem both complicated and frankly unlikely since this past winter. Now that he’s been released, however, it’s a moot point; the option won’t vest an Andrus will simply become a free agent at season’s end.

[Related: Vesting Options Updates on Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus]

Andrus can now sign a new deal that does not require a new club to pay him $15MM in 2023 if he reaches 550 plate appearances on the season. (He’s currently at 386 trips to the plate and would’ve needed another 164 to reach that threshold.) Any team that signs Andrus would need only pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the Major League roster; the A’s will remain on the hook for the rest of this year’s salary.

It’s been a decent season for Andrus at the plate and with the glove. The 33-year-old (34 next week) is no longer the hitter, but he’s turned in a respectable .237/.301/.373 batting line (97 wRC+) with eight home runs, 24 doubles and seven stolen bases. Defensive metrics on Andrus are something of a mixed bag this season; Defensive Runs Saved pegs him six runs below average, but neither Ultimate Zone Rating (2.6) nor Outs Above Average (-1) is quite so sour on his glovework. It’s fair to say that Andrus is clearly no longer the premium defender he was early in his career, when he was regarded as one of the sport’s top gloves at any position.

With Andrus out the door, the A’s will turn shortstop over to a player who has just that type of defensive prowess right now, in the early stages of his own career. Nick Allen, 23, has managed just a .215/.279/.316 slash through his first 173 trips to the plate in the big leagues, but he’s considered one of the best defensive shortstops in the minors and has a more palatable .266/.371/.358 slash in 206 plate appearances for Triple-A Las Vegas, where he’s walked almost as often as he’s struck out (13.1% versus 16.5%).

Allen will likely never hit for power in the big leagues, but with regular playing time, his walk rates, speed and bat-to-ball skills could lead to some 20-steal seasons with solid OBP marks and plus defensive contributions. If the lack of power proves too limiting for Allen to hit like an everyday player, the glove and above-average speed should make him a useful utility infielder who can provide excellent defense at shortstop, second base and third base.

Elvis Andrus Frustrated By Reduced Playing Time

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Elvis Andrus has been Oakland’s regular shortstop this season but has seen his playing time limited lately, with he and youngster Nick Allen starting alternate games over the past week. Andrus discussed the situation with Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle and didn’t seem to make an effort to hide his frustration.

“Everybody knows I’m an everyday player. So doing this, it’s not fun for me,” Andrus said. “Of course I’m upset, I’m pissed about it. But like I said, the best I can do is stay positive and wait for my turn and be ready whatever happens.”

Though his frustration is certainly understandable, this situation has sadly seemed inevitable for quite some time due to his contract. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at the situation in December, back when Oakland’s payroll-slashing moves were still just the stuff of rumor. 2022 is the final guaranteed year of the contract Andrus originally signed with the Rangers, though there is a $15MM club option for 2023. However, the club option would become a player option if two conditions are met. The first condition is if Andrus is traded during the life of the contract, which he already was, as the Rangers flipped him to the A’s in 2021. The second condition is Andrus accruing 550 plate appearances here in 2022.

Just a few days ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at some vesting options around the league, including the Andrus situation, noting that the shortstop was on pace to get to 556 PAs and meet the threshold. Given that the A’s made great efforts to shamelessly shed as much payroll as possible recently, they obviously don’t want to pay $15MM to Andrus next year if they don’t have to.

Andrus is having arguably his best season since 2017, but he’s still hitting at a below-average rate. His .237/.298/.365 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 94, or 6% below league average. That’s a nice improvement, given that he hasn’t had a wRC+ above 76 in the previous four seasons. But it’s still not the production of someone who would get $15MM in free agency, especially considering he’s about to turn 34 years old.

For the cost-cutting Oakland organization, deliberately sabotaging Andrus’ playing time in order to avoid vesting the option would give him grounds for a grievance. However, they will likely stick to their story that it’s not about him and more about giving playing time for youngsters down the stretch, so that they can be evaluated for their future role as part of the rebuild. “Elvis and I spoke about how we proceed forward with getting Nick as many opportunities as possible, getting these younger players a chance to show what they can do for our future, for their future,” A’s manager Mark Kotsay told Kawahara. “I don’t expect Elvis to be happy about it. But he’s a pro.”

As noted by Kawahara, the spotty playing time of late means that Andrus has already fallen off the pace of vesting his option. Coming into tonight’s game, he has 372 PAs, putting him on pace for 533, just 17 short of meeting the threshold. With his average-ish batting line and solid defense, he’s been worth 1.4 wins above replacement on the year, per FanGraphs. That puts him second among position players on the team, trailing only Sean Murphy, giving him a nice platform season to take into free agency.

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

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Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

The Problem(s) With Trading Elvis Andrus

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The Athletics were quiet in the pre-lockout portion of the 2021-22 offseason, but by all accounts they’re readying for a teardown that will see the core of their 2017-21 teams dispersed throughout the league as they look to retool and stockpile young talent. General manager David Forst readily acknowledged this reality, telling reporters early in the offseason: “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”

As one would expect, much of the focus has been on the big names who’ll be highly coveted by other clubs: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas. Both Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy have been mentioned at least speculatively, but they’re controlled through 2024 and 2025, respectively, whereas that initial quintet is either up for free agency next winter (Manaea, Bassitt) or following the 2023 season (Olson, Chapman, Montas).

While the focus on those players is understandable, the A’s also would surely welcome the opportunity to be rid of their remaining obligations to shortstop Elvis Andrus and outfielder Stephen Piscotty. Both are signed through the 2022 season with 2023 club options on contracts that are generally viewed as underwater. With several clubs still eyeing shortstop help, Andrus has come up as a speculative piece in some larger deals. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman, for example, has written about the concept of the Yankees taking on Andrus as part of a larger deal to acquire Olson. CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa suggested a similar idea for the Jays if they look into Chapman.

The problem in suggesting an Andrus trade in any shape or size is twofold, however. First and most obviously is the simple fact that Andrus’ bat has been dormant for four years now. In 2016-17, his age-27 and age-28 seasons, Andrus hit a combined .299/.348/.457 with good defense and plus value on the basepaths. He looked like one of the most well-rounded shortstops in the game. Since then, he’s batted a combined .255/.302/.360 over the course of 1728 plate appearances.

Secondly and more problematic, however, is Andrus’ contract. The 2022 season is the final year of Andrus’ eight-year, $120MM contract originally signed with the Rangers. He’s owed $14MM this coming season, although the Rangers are on the hook for $7.25MM of that sum.

An effective one-year deal for Andrus at $6.75MM isn’t particularly appealing but also isn’t so burdensome that a team in need of a stopgap at short would automatically turn up its nose. Andrus still went 12-for-14 in stolen bases and drew generally plus marks for his baserunning at FanGraphs. Defensive Runs Saved has him pegged as a below-average defender at this point, but Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating disagree.

The larger wrinkles are that his $15MM club option for the 2023 season could become a player option and that his initial trade from Texas to Oakland triggered a conditional full no-trade clause, which now gives him veto power over any deal.

Andrus’ contract stipulates that his 2023 option will convert to a player option if he is both traded (check) and then accumulates 550 plate appearances in the 2022 season. The 550 plate appearances is an eminently reachable platform as well, particularly for Andrus. While his 2021 season ended with a leg fracture sustained during the final weekend of play, he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training and quite likely would’ve reached 550 in 2021 were it not for that late injury. Andrus also averaged 625 plate appearances per season in the decade from 2010-19, so there’s good reason to think he’ll be able to reach those 550 trips to the plate next year.

Granted, a team could try to acquire Andrus with the idea of limiting his role, but that might not sit well with Andrus, who’s in line for regular at-bats in Oakland and has to approve any trade. The notion of giving Andrus everyday reps for a good chunk of the season and then curbing his playing time as that 550-PA threshold approaches is also tricky, as that sort of direct playing-time manipulation to avoid contractual milestones can lead to a grievance filing against the team. Even absent a grievance, that tactic isn’t likely to go unnoticed by other players; it’s the sort of thing that can work against a team in future free-agent discussions, extension talks or trade scenarios involving other players with no-trade protection.

All that said, it’s also worth noting that the vesting player option could very well enhance Oakland’s motivation to move on from Andrus. Because he’s already been traded once, that 550 plate appearance threshold applies even if Andrus remains in green and gold. The A’s, too, could simply opt to move on from Andrus in Spring Training or amid any early struggles that arise, and they have a shortstop-in-waiting in the form of defensive wizard Nick Allen — a 2017 third-round pick who ranks among the organization’s top farmhands. If Andrus does open the year in Oakland, his playing time will be worth close monitoring as the season wears on.

However things play out, Oakland would likely welcome the opportunity to move on from Andrus, who was only acquired in a swap of bad contracts in the first place. His trade candidacy isn’t as straightforward as most “bad contract” swaps, however. That vesting player option in his deal is should be kept in mind for fans of any team who might be eyeing Andrus as a counterweight to balance the scales in a trade involving Olson, Chapman, Manaea, etc., and that no-trade protection gives Andrus a good bit of leverage.

Athletics Appear Set For Significant Payroll Reduction

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7:29 pm: Forst addressed the club’s likely forthcoming payroll cuts this evening, telling Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) the team is willing to field offers for any player on the roster. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”

10:30 am: The Athletics’ stunning decision to let manager Bob Melvin leave to sign a three-year deal as the Padres’ new manager served as a portent for a bleak winter in Oakland, only increasing prior expectations that a payroll reduction was on the horizon. General manager David Forst spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and others at this week’s GM Meetings, and while he didn’t outright say that the team plans to reduce its bottom line in 2022, he implied that another “step back” is certainly a possibility.

“I think right now we’re in the middle of those conversations with [ownership],” said Forst. “We don’t have exact direction yet. But you look at our history, and we have three- or four-year runs and recognize where we are makes it necessary to step back. But we have not gotten to that point yet with ownership.”

While Forst understandably sidestepped a definitive declaration on the team’s payroll direction, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that a pair of MLB executives told him Oakland is expected to slash payroll to as little as $50MM. One potential wrinkle as the A’s look to cut payroll, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, is the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement. The league’s initial offer to the MLBPA included a proposed salary floor (in exchange for a reduction of the luxury tax threshold — a nonstarter for the players’ side of negotiations). Even though the MLBPA had no interest in the specifics of that particular proposal, the eventual possibility of a salary floor could come back to haunt the A’s if they gut the payroll early in the winter.

One way or another, it seems quite likely that the current Athletics’ core is going to be broken up this offseason — the question is to what extent rather than whether it’ll happen at all. Such an outcome wasn’t exactly difficult to foresee. I explored back in early September how, based on their typical payroll levels, the A’s were unlikely to spend to keep a deep arbitration class after projected raises to the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas (among others). Retaining that group would require an increase over this season’s $83.8MM payroll — already the fourth-highest in franchise history and not far below the team record of $92MM. That increase would come before making a single addition to the 2022 roster.

When looking for trade candidates on the Oakland roster, the top of that arbitration class is the most obvious place to begin. At $12MM, Olson leads the bunch in terms of expected salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s end-of-year projections. Each of Manaea ($10.2MM), Chapman ($9.5MM), Bassitt ($8.8MM) and Montas ($5.2MM) is also set to account for a notable portion of the team’s payroll next season.

The A’s would surely be open to moving outfielder Stephen Piscotty (still owed $8.25MM, including a 2023 option buyout) and shortstop Elvis Andrus ($7.25MM through 2022 after accounting for the portion of his salary paid by the Rangers). Neither player has much in the way of trade value at this point, however. Oakland currently projects for a payroll just north of $85MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure includes MLBTR’s projected arb salaries, the two guaranteed contracts and a slate of pre-arb salaries to round out the roster.

Olson, Chapman and Montas all have two years of club control remaining. Manaea and Bassitt are set to become free agents next winter. While it’s possible, if not likely, that other players on the Oakland roster will also see their names pop up in trade talks, that quintet offers the best blend of productivity, affordability (for other clubs) and trade value (for the A’s). Here’s a quick, high-level look at each:

  • Olson (28 next year): A 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Olson leads all first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved and a 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating since 2017. He’s sixth among first basemen in Statcast’s Outs Above Average during that time. Olson swatted a career-best 39 home runs in 2021 and, most importantly, cut his once-problematic strikeout rate to an 16.8% level that is well below the league average. Olson walks at a high clip, has massive left-handed power, plays elite defense and looks to have made huge gains in his contact skills. He hit .271/.371/.540 in 2021 despite a cavernous home stadium.
  • Chapman (29 next year): As with Olson, Chapman is a preternatural defender. Since 2017, the two-time Platinum Glover leads third basemen in DRS (78) and UZR (48.7) and trails only Nolan Arenado in OAA (48). Chapman has huge power, but his contact trends have gone in the opposite direction of Olson. Chapman, whose 2020 season ended early due to hip surgery, struck out at a 22.8% clip from 2018-19 but a 33.1% pace in 2020-21. The glove is still elite, and Chapman has still bashed 37 homers in his past 774 plate appearances while walking at an 11.4% clip. The current version of Chapman has huge value, but if the strikeouts decline as he further distances himself from the hip injury, he has MVP-caliber talent.
  • Manaea (30 next year): Manaea’s 2018 season ended with major shoulder surgery, and he missed most of 2019 while on the mend. Since returning, he’s delivered 263 innings of 3.73 ERA  ball with near-identical reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.78). In that time, Manaea has a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 5.2% walk rate and a 43.8% grounder rate — all strong marks. He moved from a four-seamer to a sinker this season, and the 92.2 mph average on that sinker was the best velocity on his primary offering since his four-seamer sat 93.1 mph as a rookie in 2016. He’s a one-year rental, but a good one.
  • Bassitt (33 next year): A frightening injury that saw Bassitt struck in the face by a 100 mph-plus line drive in August looked like it might end his season. Bassitt, however, returned from surgery to repair facial fractures on Sept. 23 and made two appearances to close out his season (6 1/3 innings, one run allowed). Since establishing himself as a big leaguer in 2018, the late-blooming righty has a 3.23 ERA, a 23.1% strikeout rate, a 7.1% walk rate and a 42.3% grounder rate in 412 innings. This past season’s 25% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were career-highs. Like Manaea, Bassitt is a free agent next winter but would make a fine rental for a contender.
  • Montas (29 next year): Montas consistently averages better than 96 mph on his heater. The 2021 season was his first topping 100 innings, thanks to a combination of injuries, the shortened 2020 campaign and an 80-game PED ban. Lack of innings notwithstanding, Montas has been effective on the whole since 2018, logging a combined 3.57 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates. The 2021 season looked to be a true breakout, as Montas ranked ninth in MLB with 187 innings and turned in a 3.37 ERA with a career-high 26.6% strikeout rate.

The asking price on those players, and others, will vary based on expected earnings and remaining club control. It’s not a given that the A’s trade all five, of course, and it’s possible that even as they do make some changes on the roster, some of those dollars are reallocated to low-cost free agents.

In past trades of notable players, the A’s have tended to focus on upper-level prospects and young big leaguers who’ve yet to establish themselves rather than the lower-level types often targeted by teams commencing full teardowns. That’s not a guaranteed blueprint for how they’ll operate this winter, but the focus on near-term assets is part of the reason the A’s have managed to remain so competitive amid frequent “step backs,” regular roster turnover and perennial payroll constraints.

The extent of this ostensible “step back” will be partly determined by the extent to which ownership is willing to spend in future seasons, but the A’s have never embarked on the sort of lengthy, years-long rebuilds we’ve recently seen in Baltimore, Detroit and other places. Oakland has never had more than three straight losing seasons under Billy Beane and has just eight total losing records in Beane’s 24 full seasons leading baseball operations.

Elvis Andrus Undergoes Leg Surgery

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Athletics shortstop Elvis Andrus underwent successful surgery today to repair a fibula fracture in his left leg, the club announced. The veteran suffered the injury over the weekend. The team anticipates he’ll be ready for Spring Training next season.

Oakland acquired Andrus from the Rangers in February after watching Marcus Semien depart in free agency. Andrus went on to log the bulk of the playing time at short this season, but he didn’t produce much offensively. The 33-year-old hit .243/.294/.320 with only three home runs, production that checked in 28 percentage points below the league average by measure of wRC+. That’s the fourth consecutive well below-average hitting campaign for Andrus, who had a really solid run for much of his time in Texas but has tailed off as he entered his 30’s.

Andrus remains under contract for 2022 on a $14MM salary, $6.75MM of which will be paid down by the Rangers. The deal also contains a $15MM vesting player option for 2023. Were he to reach 550 plate appearances next year, he’d have the right to exercise that option; if he doesn’t hit that playing time tally, he’d hit free agency at the end of the season.

Given Andrus’ continued offensive struggles, it’s possible the A’s look to upgrade the position this winter. Advanced defensive metrics have been split on Andrus’ glovework — Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as below-average three years running, while he’s rated quite well by Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Most teams would still probably feel comfortable with Andrus’ ability to handle shortstop, but the A’s will assuredly try to be competitive again next season and could look to add a little more offense at the position. There’s likely significant roster turnover on the horizon, and the front office might try to bring in a controllable shortstop option via trade to push Andrus into more of a utility role.

Elvis Andrus, Jed Lowrie Done For The Season

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Sept. 27: Andrus is meeting with noted orthopedic surgeon Keith Meister after being diagnosed with a fractured fibula in his left leg, per Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News. At this point, there’s no indication of damage to any ligaments or tendons, so the A’s tentatively expect him to be ready for Spring Training 2022.

Sept. 26: The Athletics have placed infielders Elvis Andrus and Jed Lowrie on the 10-day injured list, per the team. To fill their roster spots, Sam Moll has been reinstated from the paternity list and Vimael Machin was recalled from Triple-A.

That’ll close the books on the 2021 season for Andrus and Lowrie, the A’s middle infield for much of the year. Josh Harrison and Tony Kemp line up in the middle today for the A’s.

For Lowrie, it was without a doubt a bounce-back campaign just in terms of staying healthy enough to play in 139 games and step to the plate 512 times. In terms of his production, it wasn’t his best campaign. Lowrie hit just .245/.318/.398 with 14 long balls.

Andrus was a surprise choice as a replacement for Marcus Semien this year, but he not only kept the job, but he started 141 games at short for the A’s. He hit just .243/.294/.320 over 541 plate appearances, however. That’s good for just a 72 wRC+, leaving plenty of room to second guess Oakland’s decision to make Andrus their regular shortstop.

Machin has been an extra man in the infield for the A’s the past two seasons, though his playing time has been limited. The 28-year-old has a .176/.265/.198 line across 103 plate appearances over the past two seasons.

Moll will head back to the bullpen. He has made six scoreless appearances on the year covering 7 2/3 innings.

Injury Notes: Cousins, Andrus, Loaisiga, Taillon, Cisnero

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The Brewers placed righty Jake Cousins on the 10-day injured list due to a right biceps strain, as right-hander Miguel Sanchez was called up from Triple-A to take Cousins’ spot on the active roster.  Speaking with The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Brewers GM Matt Arnold described Cousins’ injury as “nothing major,” adding that “We just want to be careful.  It’s that time of year where we want to make sure he’s available in a playoff capacity.”

Considering that Cousins didn’t even make his MLB debut until June 21, his status as a potential postseason weapon is a sign of how well he has performed during his rookie season.  Cousins has a 2.70 ERA over 30 relief innings, along with an eye-popping 35.2% strikeout rate — not far off his minor league numbers since joining the Milwaukee organization in 2019.  While Cousins’ control hasn’t been nearly as impressive (15.2% walk rate), opponents haven’t been able to take much advantage, as Cousins has been carving up batters with his wipeout slider.

More on other injury situations around baseball…

  • While scoring the game-winning run in the Athletics’ 2-1 walkoff win over the Astros today, Elvis Andrus suffered a left ankle injury and had to be helped off the field.  A’s manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other reporters that Andrus is getting x-rays after “feeling a pop” in his ankle.  More will be known after Andrus has been tested, but it certainly looks like the 33-year-old’s season could be over, as the shortstop could be facing a serious injury.  It has been a tough year overall for Andrus, as he has hit only .243/.294/.320 over 541 plate appearances in his first season in Oakland.
  • The Yankees could have Jonathan Loaisiga and Jameson Taillon back from the injured list during the club’s upcoming series against the Blue Jays, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including ESPN’s Marly Rivera and Newsday’s Erik Boland).  Loaisiga was sidelined on September 5 with a strained right rotator cuff, but the reliever has already thrown one bullpen session and will throw another soon, Boone said.  Taillon has missed close to the game amount of time with an ankle injury, though he has been on a minor league rehab assignment and threw a bullpen today.
  • Jose Cisnero’s IL stint has lasted beyond the minimum 10 days, and Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) that while Cisnero hasn’t yet been shut down, a return this season is “improbable.”  Cisnero has been hampered by swelling around the right elbow laceration that first sent him to the injured list back on September 14.  If this is it for the right-hander in 2021, Cisnero will finish with a 3.65 ERA over 61 2/3 innings, marking his third consecutive year of solid work out of Detroit’s bullpen.
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