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Giancarlo Stanton

Yankees Acquire Giancarlo Stanton

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MONDAY: The trade is now official, per club announcements.

SATURDAY: It would appear that the Giancarlo Stanton saga has come to a close. The Yankees are set to acquire the 2017 NL MVP from the Marlins in exchange for infielder Starlin Castro, along with minor-leaguers Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. The Marlins will also send the Yankees $30MM in cash if Stanton does not opt out of his contract after the 2020 season. The deal is still pending a physical.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports was the first to report that a deal was set, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post mentioned earlier that a deal was “virtually in place”, adding that Castro would be part of the deal. While some other cash numbers were mentioned by some reporters earlier in the day, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to mention the $30MM figure that has since been confirmed by Morosi as well as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Credit goes to Sherman for the report that the prospects involved are in the low minors, as well as first breaking the news that those prospects were Guzman and Devers. Sherman was also the first to report that the Yankees will only get the cash if Stanton doesn’t opt out after 2020.

While there was initially some uncertainty surrounding whether or not Stanton would waive his no-trade clause, that dissolved when Heyman reported that Stanton was on his way to New York City for his physical. Stanton will retain no-trade privileges after the one-time waiver, Heyman adds on Twitter, so he’ll still control his destiny if the Yanks end up trying to move the contract in the future.

The acquisition of Stanton by the Yankees brings a dramatic swirl of trade rumors to a firm close. There had been speculation about Stanton’s availability as early as July, though a trade never materialized despite Stanton reportedly clearing revocable trade waivers. Early in November, reports surfaced that the Marlins were interested in moving Stanton (and other big contracts) in order to trim payroll to about $90MM before the start of the 2018 season. While the Marlins were able to work out the framework for deals "<strongwith the Cardinals and Giants, Stanton ultimately used his no-trade clause to block those deals. The Marlins were ultimately forced to settle for a lesser prospect return from the Yankees, although Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Yankees took on more of Stanton’s salary than the Cardinals were willing to.

Stanton will add even more power to a Yankees lineup that finished the 2017 season with 241 homers; more than any other MLB club. Notably, Stanton will unite with the only other player to finish this past season with more than 50 homers: Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge. Those two right-handed power threats, along with a third in catcher Gary Sanchez, should become an absolute terror for opposing left-handed pitchers.

The Yankees have made it clear that they plan on trying to get below the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and while the acquisition of Stanton would seem to run contrary to that objective, making the two work in tandem could be easier than it would initially appear. Luxury tax implications are based on the average annual value of guaranteed contracts, and Stanton’s figure towards the threshold is based off of his entire contract with the Marlins. Since that deal was for 13 years and $325MM, Stanton’s luxury tax contribution will be $22MM annually, thanks to the conditional $30MM contribution from the Marlins. The average annual value of Castro’s contract is $8.6MM, so the Stanton trade will only add about $13.4MM to the Yankees payroll in 2018 for luxury tax purposes.

The Stanton deal will no doubt have an enormous ripple effect throughout baseball, starting with the AL East. The Red Sox stand out as big losers in this deal; not only did they hope to acquire Stanton themselves after finishing last in the AL in home runs, but the 2017 homer champ will be another right-handed power threat to a lefty-heavy Boston rotation that includes Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez. In addition, the Stanton deal further bolsters a Yankees team that looked formidable even without the reigning NL MVP, meaning that Toronto, Baltimore and Tampa Bay (who seem to be on the fringes of contention) might reconsider their intentions to seriously compete for a pennant. Should those teams change their direction, big names like Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado could potentially become available in trade discussions. Even if that doesn’t happen, a more dominant Yankees lineup has a better chance to force their weaker rivals out of contention before the midseason trade deadline. That’s not to say that one player can definitively make such a profound impact, but as a seven-WAR player, Stanton could certainly tip the scales. Elsewhere in baseball, the Nationals, Mets and Braves will benefit from the full rebuild the completed deal signals for the Marlins camp.

Stanton, of course, led all qualifying MLB players this past year with 59 homers and a .631 slugging percentage en route to his first MVP selection. The towering 6’6″ right-handed hitter terrorized NL pitching to the tune of a .281/.376/.631 overall batting line while playing roughly average defense in right field. The Marlins took him in the second round of the 2007 draft, and have since been rewarded with 34.1 wins above replacement level. Stanton ranked seventh in the majors in 2017 with a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity, including the hardest-hit ball all year (122.2 MPH). His .410 wOBA and 156 wRC+ both ranked fifth in MLB.

The 21-year-old Guzman is best known as one of the pieces sent from Houston to New York in exchange for catcher Brian McCann just last winter. The 2015 international signee out of the Dominican Republic posted excellent numbers in thirteen starts for the Yankees’ Low-A affiliate, including a 2.30 ERA with 11.28 K/9 against just 2.43 BB/9. Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs describes Guzman as someone who throws “absolute gas.” The 6’2″ righty reportedly sits around 96-100 MPH with his fastball and can reach back for up to 102. He combines that pitch with an 89 MPH slider; that combination helped him strike out a league-leading 33% of batters faced. KATOH projects him as high as a 4.5 WAR player in the majors.

Devers, 18, was also signed out of the Dominican Republic. The Yankees added the left-handed hitting shortstop to their system just this season for a bonus of $250K; he’s only got 53 pro games under his belt. Devers is best known as the cousin of Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers, who was a top prospect in Boston’s system and made his major league debut in 2017. Ben Badler of Baseball America describes the younger Devers as “a wiry shortstop with above-average speed, good hands and quick footwork.” He’s largely put to bed initial concerns about his arm action and arm strength, and has been described by opposing managers as someone who takes away a lot of hits with his glove. While he doesn’t provide much in the way of power, Devers shows good contact ability with the bat. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes that Devers also has a projectable frame, and confirms that his swing will need some tweaking if he wants to develop any real power.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Parè, Neshek, Phillies, Gio

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As you might expect, the Marlins aimed high in their trade talks with the Yankees about Giancarlo Stanton.  According to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), Miami initially asked New York about such top prospects as Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Estevan Florial.  Those demands weren’t met, however, and the Marlins had to settle for two lesser prospects (Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers) plus second baseman Starlin Castro in exchange for the big slugger.  It wasn’t as if the Marlins had much leverage, of course, as the Yankees were one of the few teams Stanton was willing to waive his no-trade clause to join and Miami’s top priority was getting as much of Stanton’s enormous contract as possible off their books.

Some more rumblings from around the NL East…

  • The Braves announced the hiring of Jason Parè as their assistant general manager, research and development.  (The previously-reported hiring of Josh Tamin as the club’s director of Major League operations was also announced.)  Parè spent the last two years as the Marlins’ senior director of analytics, and he previously worked with Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos in Toronto’s front office, where Parè worked as an analyst in 2014-15.
  • The Phillies have had internal talks about signing Pat Neshek, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports.  Neshek was acquired by the Phils last winter in a trade with the Astros and then pitched superbly before being flipped to the Rockies for three prospects at trade deadline.  Neshek enjoyed arguably the best of his 11 MLB seasons in 2017, posting a 1.59 ERA over 62 1/3 combined innings with Philadelphia and Colorado, recording 69 strikeouts against just six walks.
  • The Phillies are reportedly open to the possibility of starting the season with a surplus of infielders, though Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues that the team is best served by trading at least one of their veteran players (i.e. Cesar Hernandez or Freddy Galvis) this winter and giving J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery a clear path to regular playing time.  Juggling those four players and Maikel Franco during the year leads to fewer at-bats for everyone and, Gelb notes, less opportunity for Hernandez or Galvis to improve their value for a midseason trade.
  • Could the Nationals use Gio Gonzalez as a trade chip?  MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel discusses the possibility, as the Nats could obtain some controllable talent by dealing the veteran as he enters the final year of his contract.  Gonzalez is coming off one of the best of his six seasons in Washington (2.96 ERA, 2.38 K/BB rate, 8.42 K/9 over 201 innings), though advanced metrics were less impressed by his performance, so Kerzel believes the Nats could look for a trade while Gonzalez’s value is high.

Latest On The Mets’ Offseason Plans

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Here’s the latest from Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who spoke with reporters (including Newsday’s Marc Carig, and Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post) about where his team stands headed into the Winter Meetings…

  • If there was a general theme to Alderson’s comments, it was that the Mets will be patient when it comes to making their moves, particularly in the relief pitching market.  The team seemed poised to make a quicker jump for a bullpen arm earlier this winter, though now New York appears to be taking a step back.  “We’re not going to chase players.  There are a lot of guys out there, and a lot of teams looking for relief pitching,” Alderson said.  “We think there’s some values out there. And to the extent that the market gets overheated, I wouldn’t think that we’ll jump into the inferno.  But we do want to improve our bullpen.”  In a follow-up tweet from Puma, Alderson “is sending out signals to” some agents that the Mets might not sign a reliever until after the Winter Meetings or possibly even into January.  The Mets are one of the teams who made a three-year offer to Bryan Shaw, though Carig suggests that Shaw would be holding out for a fourth year or perhaps is looking for an offer from a team whose Spring Training camp is in Arizona (where Shaw owns a home).
  • Dominic Smith “is still very much in the mix” for regular time at first base, Alderson said.  Smith received some criticism from Mets officials, including Alderson himself, after the season, though recent reports had the team looking for just part-time first base help, either in the form of a platoon partner like Adam Lind or an outfielder who could fill in at first like Jay Bruce.  “I wouldn’t expect us to do something that totally eliminates Dominic as a possibility,” the GM said.  “We are still very high on Dominic — some of my comments earlier in the offseason notwithstanding. I would be surprised if we did anything that precluded him from not having an opportunity in Spring Training.”
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is almost certainly going to be used at third base next season, so Alderson said the Mets will look for second base help.  A trade for a second baseman is possible, though “our farm system right now is not brimming with prospects, so in that sense, making a trade isn’t as attractive,” Alderson said.
  • The Mets were never linked to the Giancarlo Stanton trade rumors, as Alderson said he “just didn’t think, given the contract, a variety of circumstances, it made any sense for us to feign any interest for purposes of public consumption.”  While the Mets no longer have to worry about Stanton as an intra-division rival, they’ll get a regular dose of the slugger as both an interleague foe with the Yankees.

NL News & Rumors: Giants, Stanton, Moustakas, Cards, D-backs

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Before the Giants’ pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton failed, they offered the Marlins a package including right-hander Tyler Beede and catcher Aramis Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Beede and Garcia, both 24 years old, rank among the Giants’ top 10 prospects at MLB.com and Baseball America. Along with surrendering those two, San Francisco would’ve absorbed $230MM of the $295MM owed to Stanton (the Yankees, who won the Stanton derby, will take on $265MM). That package was to the Marlins’ liking, but Stanton put the kibosh on a deal by declining to waive his no-trade clause for San Francisco.

More on the Giants and a few other National League clubs:

  • The Cardinals have had talks with the agents for relievers Addison Reed and Brandon Morrow, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. At one point this offseason, there was “momentum” toward a deal between Reed and the Cardinals, a source told Goold, but it seems this winter’s slow-to-develop relief market has helped prevent an agreement from coming to fruition. Whether he signs with the Cardinals or another team, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Reed is in position to end up as one of this winter’s richest relievers.
  • A lack of financial wiggle room could prevent the Diamondbacks from doing anything significant in free agency, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Arizona needs bullpen help, for instance, but several agents informed Piecoro that the club’s not showing much willingness to spend. The Diamondbacks “think they’re going to get by spending $5 million” total on bullpen upgrades, an agent for a second-tier reliever told Piecoro. In order to free up payroll space, the D-backs could deal left-hander Patrick Corbin and/or center fielder A.J. Pollock, Piecoro suggests. Both players are only under control for another year – MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects an $8.3.MM arbitration award for Corbin and an $8.5MM salary for Pollock.
  • The Giants will reportedly pursue the top free agent third baseman available, Mike Moustakas, but Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle casts doubt on the possibility (via Twitter). The club is wary of going after free agents who have rejected qualifying offers because of the compensation it would have to give up to land them, Schulman notes, and Moustakas is part of that class. Signing him would cost the Giants two draft picks (their second- and fifth-highest choices) in 2018 and $1MM in international bonus pool space.
  • The Braves will hire Alex Tamin as their director of major league operations, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Tamin was previously the Dodgers’ director of baseball operations, serving in the same front office as new Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos. While with Los Angeles, Tamin “handled rules and transactions” and was “heavily involved” in advance scouting, according to Rosenthal, who adds that he’ll perform similar tasks in Atlanta.

East Notes & Rumors: Marlins, Red Sox, Schwarber, Stanton

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An early morning look at the majors’ East divisions:

  • There’s no desperation on the Marlins’ part to trade second baseman Starlin Castro, whom they’ll acquire from the Yankees when the teams’ Giancarlo Stanton trade becomes official, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. With a reasonable $22MM left on Castro’s contract over the next two years, the Marlins believe they’re in position to “wait for the right offer,” per Nightengale. Meanwhile, the Fish are entertaining offers for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom the Cardinals “badly desire,” Nightengale notes. Ozuna will make a projected $10.9MM in his penultimate arbitration-eligible season in 2018, and he’s coming off a career year, so moving him would help the Marlins further slash their payroll and improve their weak farm system in one fell swoop.
  • The power-needy Red Sox have interest in Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber, according to Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, though he casts doubt on the idea of Chicago moving the 24-year-old. The Cubs’ front office has long been bullish on Schwarber, who’s coming off a disappointing season (granted, he did hit 30 home runs) but still under control for five more years. In the seemingly unlikely event the Cubs deal Schwarber to Boston, he’d be a candidate to slot in at first base/designated hitter.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required and recommended) regards the Stanton trade as a “no-brainer” move for the Yankees, arguing that he won’t have to replicate the MVP form he showed off in 2017 to justify the 10-year, $265MM commitment for New York. Law also doesn’t close the door on the Yankees adding Bryce Harper in free agency next year, as he’s of the belief that the former center fielder could still be an option there in the short term. While the Yankees may have cleaned up in the swap, Law regards it as an opportunity lost for Miami because, in addition to Castro, it’ll only get a pair of “fringe prospects” in return for an elite player. Law goes on to assess the prospects, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers, in depth.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Giancarlo Stanton Trade

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The Yankees shook the baseball world early Saturday when they agreed to acquire 2017 National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins. As you’d expect, the deal has elicited no shortage of media reactions, many of which we’ve rounded up here:

  • While the Los Angeles-born Stanton would have preferred to go to the Dodgers, they didn’t make an offer that “intrigued” the Marlins, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. Sending Stanton to the Dodgers would have required the Marlins to take on more bad contracts than they were “comfortable with,” according to Sherman, who reports that LA wanted Miami to accept one or both of Adrian Gonzalez or Scott Kazmir and absorb $30MM of Stanton’s contract. The Marlins found acquiring Starlin Castro from the Yankees much more appealing, as he’s someone they could slot in at second base or flip elsewhere.
  • The Dodgers’ wariness toward a more aggressive Stanton pursuit stemmed from the back-loaded nature of his 10-year, $295MM commitment, per Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required and recommended). If he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020, Stanton will rake in $96MM over the final three years of his pact, when he’ll be in his late 30s. The Yankees will be able to slot him in at designated hitter then if his work in the field sharply declines with age, whereas the Dodgers would have had to continue running him out as a defender.
  • Adding Stanton gives the Yankees as many as six major league-caliber outfielders, thereby making Jacoby Ellsbury and Clint Frazier potential trade candidates. The Yankees will work to rid themselves of Ellsbury, even if it means eating “a lot” of the $68.3MM left on his contract, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. Ellsbury was reportedly uninterested in leaving the Yankees as of earlier this week, but that was before the acquisition of Stanton relegated him to the role of a fifth outfielder. While Ellsbury, who has a full no-trade clause, would be a salary dump, the 23-year-old Frazier would likely bring back a quality return – perhaps a starter, King suggests. Additionally, the Yankees “would certainly listen on offers” for third baseman Chase Headley, per King. Headley is entering the last year of his contract, in which he’ll make $13MM.
  • With new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman on a mission to continue paring down payroll to the $90MM range, Castro looks like their most obvious trade chip, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. By parting with Castro – who has two years and $22MM left on his pact – and not taking back another guaranteed contract, Miami would still be about $15MM above its spending goal, Jackson notes. Further payroll slashing could come from deals involving some combination of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Martin Prado, Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa. Moving Castro, Ozuna, Ziegler and Tazawa would likely obviate any need to trade Yelich, Jackson suggests.
  • Prior to the Yankees’ Stanton acquisition, they looked poised to go after Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper in free agency a year from now. That may be out the window now, leading Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post to posit that the trade probably helps the Nationals to some degree because it appears to erase a would-be Harper suitor. However, several other teams will make big offers to Harper, Janes points out, so retaining him on what should be a record contract still figures to be a tall order for the Nats.
  • Harper is among the losers in this trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic opines (subscription required and recommended). Unsurprisingly, Harper’s agent, the always colorful Scott Boras, disagrees. “A Bronx opera . . . The Three Tenors . . . Hal’s genius, vision,” Boras told Rosenthal via email, referencing Harper, Stanton, Aaron Judge and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner. Boras added that the Harper-Stanton-Judge trio would be “a galaxy of international popularity” on the same team. While Boras clearly isn’t ruling out a Yankees-Harper union, Rosenthal sees Manny Machado as a more likely target for the club in free agency next year.
  • The fact that Stanton is set to join a Yankees team that was just one win from securing a World Series trip last season is a major blow to parity in the AL, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argues. Cameron classifies the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Indians as potential “super teams” heading into next season, and the Angels could be on their way to the playoffs after winning the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. As impressive as those clubs look, there’s now less incentive for others to play for the last wild-card spot, Cameron contends, which could lead certain fringe teams to rebuild.

Yankees, Marlins Reach Deal For Stanton

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10:56am: Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter that the Yankees will receive about $35MM from the Marlins in the deal, and confirms that they’ll send back Castro and prospects. Heyman also adds in a separate tweet that Stanton is on his way to NYC for a physical, making it clear that he is waiving his no-trade clause.

10:35am: A source close to Morosi confirms Rosenthal’s report that Stanton is expected to approve the trade.

9:56am: A last-ditch effort to acquire Stanton today by the Dodgers is unlikely, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports hears (Twitter link).

9:33am: The main prospects that would be headed back in the deal are down in the lower levels of the Yankees’ minor league system, Sherman adds.

9:20am: Sherman hears that Castro is the only veteran going back to the Marlins in the deal (Twitter link). The other players going to Miami are Yankees prospects, though not their “best.”

8:49am: The expectation is that Stanton will approve the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal also mentions that the deal is pending physicals, which seem to be the only real item standing in the way of the trade being considered complete.

7:14am: The Yankees and Marlins have a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.  The deal is still subject to Stanton’s approval, as the slugger has full no-trade rights.  Several hours prior, Joel Sherman of the New York Post called the deal “virtually done,” noting the Marlins will receive second baseman Starlin Castro “plus good but not top prospects” if completed.  Before that, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle had reported the deal as “close if not done.”

Yesterday, Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants.  Previous reporting has indicated that the Yankees are on the short list of teams to which Stanton would be willing to be traded, so his approval in this case may not be a major hurdle.  Stanton will also need to pass a physical by the Yankees, as Sherman has noted.

The pairing of Giancarlo Stanton with Aaron Judge will be one for the ages.  Stanton just took home the NL MVP award with an epic 59 home run season, a level that had not been reached since Barry Bonds in 2001.  Meanwhile, Judge won the American League Rookie of the Year award and finished second in the AL MVP voting with 52 bombs, a rookie record.  Throw in catcher Gary Sanchez, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman has assembled a Murderers’ Row of right-handed sluggers.

Earlier this year, the Marlins were purchased by a group led by former Yankees great Derek Jeter, as well as investor Bruce Sherman.  The pair chose to keep alive the Marlins’ fire sale tradition, intent on moving Stanton because of the massive contract he signed under previous owner Jeffrey Loria three years ago.  The Marlins’ leverage was clearly reduced after Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants.  Stanton, 28, is still owed $295MM over the next ten years.  After the 2020 season, he has the right to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM, which will be a source of significant downside risk for the Yankees.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman has expressed his commitment to getting the team’s payroll under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, which isn’t easy to do while adding Stanton’s contract.  Sending Castro to the Marlins removes a two-year, $22MM commitment. However, as Sherman points out, the average annual value of Castro’s contract is what counts towards the tax; that figure is $8.6MM.

It’s certainly too early to say this for certain, but the impact of this trade could even reach next year’s free agent market, as Mark Zuckerman notes on Twitter. The Yankees have long been considered one of the best potential suitors for former NL MVP Bryce Harper, but may not have room for him in their outfield (or potentially their 2019 payroll) any longer. It would be hard to imagine them using one of Judge, Stanton or Harper exclusively as a designated hitter, and none of them are likely candidates to play anywhere on the field besides the outfield corners.

The deal will also come with significant risk for the Yankees. As Eno Sarris of Fangraphs pointed out back in November, it’s hard to know how the reigning NL MVP will age. Stanton also missed large portions of the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a broken hand and a groin strain, respectively. Add that injury history into the mix, and there’s a number of scenarios that end with Stanton’s contract becoming a significant albatross for the Yankees during the final years of the deal. This doesn’t necessarily detract from the fact that New York is in a much better position over the next few years due to the slugging outfielder’s presence, but it’s certainly a notable concern.

Acquiring Stanton should help soften the blow for the Yankees of seeing Shohei Ohtani agree to terms with the Angels. Last week, the Bombers were considered strong suitors for the services of the two-way Japanese phenom, and didn’t seem like serious contenders to land Stanton in a trade. While the Yanks will still want to make a big improvement to their pitching staff, Stanton adds similar value to their roster overall, and perhaps allows them to be more aggressive in shopping outfielder Clint Frazier for cost-controlled starting pitchers (hat tip to Joel Sherman).

The Miami Marlins originally took Stanton with the 76th overall pick in the 2007 draft (second round). After a hot start with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate three years later, the team decided to promote him straight to the majors, skipping Triple-A entirely. Stanton stuck in the majors and has been a power monster ever since; he’s already socked 267 home runs over the course of his career to go with a .268/.360/.554 career slash line. While he’s dealt with a plethora of injuries that have caused him to miss time in four of his seven full seasons, the Sherman Oaks, California high school product has averaged roughly 4.5 WAR during that time. 2017 was Stanton’s best season yet; not only did he mash a career-high 59 homers, but he cut his strikeout rate down to a career-low 23.6%. Ultimately, he was rewarded with the National League’s MVP honors for his tremendous year.

Yankees, Marlins In Advanced Talks On Giancarlo Stanton

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SATURDAY, 12:35am: “Serious” talks between the Yankees and Marlins have been underway for “at least a few days,” Heyman tweets. Indeed, the presence of a more desirable potential landing spot (from Stanton’s perspective) may even have dissuaded the slugger somewhat from accepting a move to the Giants or Cardinals, Heyman suggests.

FRIDAY, 11:41pm: A deal to send Stanton to New York is “close if not done,” a source tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

10:17pm: The Dodgers are also still involved on Stanton, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, though the Yankees are at a “more advanced stage” with their new push. Indeed, the Marlins’ discussions with other clubs are not considered serious at this point, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

Meanwhile, there are some competing forces at work between the Marlins and Yankees. The Marlins are “not remotely interested” in taking on underperforming contracts from the Yankees, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cautions (Twitter link). At the same time, Miami may be hoping to get something done before the Winter Meetings get underway next week, Heyman tweets, to make the move before teams begin committing significant cash elsewhere.

9:33pm: We have heard hints of this in recent days, and now there’s firm indication: the Yankees are “in play” for Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links).

Indeed, there’s real progress between the two organizations, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports adds (Twitter links), characterizing the talks as having “significant” levels of “momentum.” But a Marlins source tells Rosenthal that there’s no deal close at present, while acknowledging the teams are indeed “talking” about a swap.

After utilizing his blanket no-trade rights to eliminate the Giants and Cardinals from contention today, the heavily-marketed Stanton is open to new bidders. But with the two most aggressive suitors out of the picture, there’s now less clarity about who’ll drive the market for one of the game’s best players. With the Fish scrambling after their initial efforts fell flat, the Yankees feel they are in a position of strength in negotiations, Passan notes.

Reports have indicated that Stanton is amenable to waiving his no-trade protection to go to the Yankees — or, instead, to the Dodgers, Cubs, and Astros. But of these teams, only New York and Los Angeles have been firmly connected to Stanton at this point. And both are said to be uninterested in assuming the full, $295MM commitment remaining on his contract.

While it has long been reported that the Dodgers have remained lurking on the edges of the Stanton market, the Yankees’ potential interest has been murkier. That’s due in no small part to the team’s reputedly firm commitment to dip below the luxury tax line this year. Whether or not it’s possible for the team to accomplish that while adding Stanton isn’t clear, but certainly it would require significant financial maneuvering. That only adds to the intrigue of the structuring of a possible trade.

If the Yankees are to add Stanton without bearing the full brunt of his salary, that’ll mean either leaving money with the Marlins or — perhaps more likely — sending some big contracts back in the deal. The Yanks are well-equipped to manage Stanton’s long-term commitment — the team has only around $150MM total committed beyond the 2018 season — but will have to be somewhat creative to get under the $197MM luxury tax bar for the coming season, which the organization hopes to do in order to re-set its luxury tax rate (which graduates depending upon how many consecutive seasons a club exceeds it).

It’s mostly speculation at this point, but there are a few obvious possibilities. Jacoby Ellsbury is owed $67MM through 2020 and has been discussed as a possibility, but his no-trade rights seem to pose a major complication. Chase Headley ($13MM through 2018) and Starlin Castro ($22MM through 2019) are among the other fairly expensive players that might conceivably be utilized to arrange a swap. Though both are currently penciled in for significant roles, Castro has indeed been discussed by the sides, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Those players might also make greater sense for the Marlins since their salaries could be passed on in subsequent trades. Indeed, Castro and Headley are more likely to be involved as salary offsets than is Ellsbury, Heyman tweets. Aiding the Yankees’ flexibility in the infield is the fact that top prospect Gleyber Torres and other talented youngsters are nearing MLB readiness. Frankly, though, there are any number of permutations that one could imagine going back and forth between the teams, with other veterans on either side conceivably being involved to balance things out.

Of course, it’s also at least hypothetically possible that the Yankees will push back their luxury tax re-set date for another year. There’s much greater flexibility then than there is now. While the team has indicated it is fully committed to the limbo effort, its timeline for contention obviously ramped up with a strong 2017 season that included the emergence of Aaron Judge as a middle-of-the-order force. The thought of Judge, Stanton, and young catcher Gary Sanchez mashing long balls from the same lineup may just nudge the Yankees to make a bold move now rather than waiting for an exciting crop of free agents to hit the market next winter.

NL Notes: Nationals, Hamilton, Stanton, Brewers

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The Nationals are checking over the market for starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). While the team’s potential targets aren’t yet clear, Rosenthal does list two interesting options, both of whom were among the names we floated as hypothetical candidates in our review of the Nats’ offseason outlook. Gerrit Cole of the Pirates could be a name to watch on the trade market, says Rosenthal. And the Nationals are “kicking around” a pursuit of free agent Jake Arrieta, per the report. Certainly, the club’s numerous dealings with Scott Boras make that possible match one to keep an eye on. It’s certainly still possible the Nationals will go in any number of different directions in filling out their rotation, though the report does suggest the team shouldn’t be ruled out for a significant addition.

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Billy Hamilton is generating the most interest of any potential Reds trade pieces, Rosenthal also reports. Hamilton, obviously, is a limited offensive player due to a lack of power and on-base skills, but his baserunning and defensive skills are among the game’s elite. If the Reds do ultimately find an offer to their liking for Hamilton — he’s arb-eligible for two more years and projected to earn $5MM next season by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — Rosenthal writes that they’d likely sign a short-term stopgap in center field rather than play a corner option out of position.
  • Both the Giants and Cardinals are now out of the running to land Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins, but their pursuits still carry some information worthy of note. In the case of San Francisco, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links) that many of the players rumored to have been in the teams’ agreed-upon trade package were not, in fact, slated to be moved. None of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, Chris Shaw, Heliot Ramos, and Christian Arroyo would have been dealt, per the report. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cards would have absorbed about $250MM of the $295MM still owed to Stanton.
  • Brewers GM David Stearns chatted with the team’s beat writers, including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, in advance of the Winter Meetings. Regarding the team’s rotation needs, Stearns says that the organization’s “market and history” under his stewardship are “a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.” That seemingly hints that the organization won’t be chasing high-end free agents, though perhaps some of the top pitchers could still be considered in the right circumstances. He noted that lefty Josh Hader could yet end up “in a multi-inning relief role, similar to last year, or a more conventional starter role.” While the team wants to ensure Hader is able to “accumulate innings,” its winter moves could dictate his precise usage. Generally, Stearns said the club has many talks at various stages of development, though nothing that is nearing completion as of this particular moment.

Giancarlo Stanton Informs Giants He Will Not Waive No-Trade Clause

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The Giants have joined the Cardinals in announcing that Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton has rejected the chance at a trade. Both clubs had worked out deals with Miami and then sat down with the slugger to convince him to waive his no-trade protection.

In combination with the earlier announcement from St. Louis, this operates as a huge shift in the market for Stanton — one of the game’s preeminent stars, its highest-paid player, and a nearly-necessary trade piece for the cost-cutting Marlins. The Giants and Cardinals were both willing to take on at least the bulk of Stanton’s contract. It’s not clear at all that other teams will do so.

Stanton, of course, is under no obligation to green-light a deal. He bargained for his no-trade protection and has every right to use it however he sees fit. But his stance has certainly jammed things up for the Marlins, who have little alternative but to find a trade that he’ll authorize given the team’s determination to oversee a drastic payroll reduction.

The only reason that Stanton ended up meeting with these two teams, of course, is that they were the preferred matches from the Marlins’ perspective. Now, with both evidently out of the picture, the Fish will have to be fishermen, seeking another team to take the hook.

Indications last night were that Stanton has indicated he’d be open to joining the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, or Cubs. But only the first two of those clubs have been tied to Stanton in any meaningful way, and both are also reportedly uninterested in taking on the full $295MM still owed to Stanton, owing at least in part to luxury tax considerations. Working something out, then, will surely require some creative accounting work. And there’s also little question that the Dodgers and Yanks will milk their leverage for everything it’s worth.

It’s tempting, perhaps, to label this an instance of miscalculation by the Marlins. Entering the winter with new ownership and a new payroll plan, the team certainly did roll the dice that it would generate enough interest and that Stanton’s no-trade rights would not pose too great an obstacle. Clearly, there’s some blame to be distributed around South Beach.

At the same time, it’s understandable in some regards that the organization penciled in finding an acceptable Stanton deal — and disappointing in some respects to see this situation unfold this way. The Marlins were the relatively rare small-market team that was able to extend a youthful star. When circumstances changed, they might have reasonably hoped to have some way of relieving the pressure. Stanton, after all, is still in his prime and just wrapped up an MVP performance. As things stand, though, it seems that the Miami organization may end up stuck in the middle of baseball’s two biggest-spending clubs — unless, at least, they can find a way to cook up a new strategy after Plan A evidently failed.

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