Jackson Holliday

Orioles Notes: Holliday, Mateo, Hays, Ownership

By Anthony Franco | February 8, 2024 at 12:17pm CDT

Jackson Holliday is among the non-roster players who received an invitation to big league Spring Training with the Orioles. There was never any doubt the sport’s top prospect would be in MLB camp as he tries to lock down a spot on the Opening Day roster. Baltimore will take advantage of exhibition play to get the 2022 #1 pick experience at both middle infield spots.

General manager Mike Elias told 105.7 The Fan (X link) on Tuesday that the O’s will get Holliday “a lot” of work at second base in camp. The 20-year-old has started 25 games at the keystone in his minor league career. Holliday has made 110 starts at his primary shortstop spot. While the O’s certainly aren’t moving him off the infield’s most demanding position, there’s no harm in building his experience on either side of the second base bag.

Baltimore has plenty of infield talent even after including Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade. Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson can handle either position on the left side. Jordan Westburg split his time between second and third base while posting a solid .260/.311/.404 batting line over his first 228 MLB plate appearances.

Elias said the O’s would like to have a left-handed hitter who could factor into the second base mix, where the righty-swinging Westburg is in line for the majority of the playing time. Holliday could fit that bill once he’s officially called up, occasionally taking second base reps against tough right-handed starters (with Henderson sliding from third base to shortstop in that scenario). Baltimore acquired another lefty-hitting infield option, Nick Maton, in a small trade with Detroit last night.

The glut of infield talent should push last year’s Opening Day shortstop, Jorge Mateo, out of the regular lineup. The speedster remains on the roster despite speculation he could be traded or even non-tendered. Elias told The Fan that Mateo will see a decent amount of outfield run in Spring Training as he prepares for a utility role. While Baltimore has played Mateo mostly in the middle infield over the past two seasons, he has seen action in center field during his career.

Barring injury, Mateo isn’t going to be a regular on the outfield grass. He’s a good enough athlete to cover all three spots behind the projected starting trio of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander. Top prospects Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad reached the majors last year. Kyle Stowers, Ryan McKenna and Sam Hilliard are all on the 40-man roster as well.

Hays found himself in the news this week, as the righty-hitting outfielder triumphed in his arbitration case against the club. He secured a $6.3MM salary for his second of three trips through that process. Hays is on track to get to free agency after the 2025 season, but his camp seems amenable to working out a long-term deal.

Francis Marquez, Hays’ representative at the MAS+ Agency, told Danielle Allentuck and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner that there were no hard feelings coming out of the hearing. That’s not always the case, as some players bristle at being criticized by team representatives in what is an inherently adversarial proceeding.

“It could’ve been something that would’ve derailed a lot of good faith that has been built, and it did not,” Marquez told the Baltimore Banner. “Unabashedly, Austin is an Oriole, and he feels that he is young enough and he’s good enough to be a member of the Orioles for a long time, not just the time that he has in the arbitration system. So I think in an ideal world, 100%, Austin Hays would like to be a player who just wears an Orioles uniform during his career.”

It’s unclear whether the team has any interest in retaining Hays beyond his six-year control window. Marquez told Allentuck and Kostka that there have not been any extension talks to this point. With highly-regarded prospects like Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers and last year’s first-round selection Enrique Bradfield Jr. in the system, Baltimore could decide to wait things out on their current starting outfield.

There’s ample long-term payroll space for the O’s if they decide to begin committing to some members of the core, Hays or otherwise. Baltimore’s only obligations beyond the upcoming season are a $1MM salary for star closer Félix Bautista and option buyouts to Craig Kimbrel, Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez.

Baltimore fans are hopeful the incoming ownership group will sign off on the kind of long-term deals which the team hasn’t made since John Angelos became point person. The incoming group led by David Rubenstein is set to take control of 40% of the franchise, pending approval from MLB’s other owners. (He’d assume a majority stake upon the passing of Peter Angelos.) Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun reported that a nine-person committee discussed the terms of the sale agreement at this week’s owners’ meeting. Weyrich suggests that MLB could move quickly to approve the sale based on their familiarity with Rubenstein, perhaps voting on it within a couple months.

Orioles Interested In Extensions For Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday

By Darragh McDonald | December 7, 2023 at 5:17pm CDT

Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the Winter Meetings yesterday and was asked if the Orioles had reached out about extension talks with his clients Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. “Only once or twice a day,” Boras quipped, with Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner among those who passed his comments along. “Those kinds of things, obviously we listen, and Mike [Elias] and I talk a lot. Obviously, our job is to filter those phone calls and relay them to the player, and kind of discuss it and see if it’s something that the player himself is interested in.”

Boras and his clients have a reputation of generally being averse to extensions, though that’s not to say they never happen. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Boras has negotiated extensions for clients such as Xander Bogaerts, Stephen Strasburg, Lance McCullers Jr. and more.

Both Henderson and Holliday are fairly inexperienced but extensions for players at this stage of their careers are becoming more common. Henderson has 184 games under his belt, but has thrived in those, winning American League Rookie of the Year here in 2023. Holliday has yet to make his major league debut but is the consensus top prospect in the sport.

In recent years, players like Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez have received notable extensions prior to even making it to the big leagues. Jackson Chourio, who currently falls just behind Holliday on those prospect lists, recently set a new benchmark for players with zero service time. He and the Brewers agreed to an eight-year, $82MM extension with performance bonuses and a pair of club options. There have also been notable deals given to players with a small amount of major league experience, with each of Corbin Carroll, Wander Franco and Julio Rodríguez getting nine-figure guarantees.

For the Orioles, they would have to change strategy to get a deal done with either player. Since Mike Elias was hired as general manager in November of 2018, the largest guarantee they have given to anyone is the one-year, $13MM deal they gave to Craig Kimbrel this week. The only extensions they have signed were two-year deals for John Means and Félix Bautista. In both cases, the player was rehabbing Tommy John surgery and was already under club control for the two seasons covered by the contract.

To be fair, the O’s have been aggressively rebuilding for much of the Elias tenure, so big spending wasn’t warranted. But they won 83 games in 2022 and still kept this modest last winter. The current offseason is still ramping up, so maybe there’s a bold move or two to come, but there’s been nothing too out-of-character just yet.

Due to that lack of spending, the club has the financial means to theoretically do anything it wants. The only commitments on the books for 2025 are $1MM owed to Bautista and another $1MM for the buyout on Kimbrel’s option. There’s nothing committed for 2026. Per the data of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had a payroll as high as $164MM in 2017, which put them in the top 10 league-wide. But much has changed since then.

Owner Peter Angelos collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve and his son John Angelos later was named “control person” for the club. Since then, the club has been rebuilding and keeping player costs to a minimum. Beyond that, they haven’t been able to agree to a new lease for their home ballpark, with the current agreement set to expire at the end of this month. It was reported earlier today that David Rubenstein is attempting to purchase the club, though it’s unclear if he has a chance of succeeding or how long that would take.

There’s plenty of long-term uncertainty around the franchise so it’s an open question as to how much latitude Elias even has to commit future dollars to either of these players or any of the other on the roster. The aggressive tanking of a few years ago helped them load up their farm system, which has led to their current club being filled with talented youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and more. Getting one or more of those players to put pen to paper and stay in Baltimore for a long time would be a sensible strategy, but the likelihood of such a deal actually happening isn’t obvious at the moment.

In the short term, Elias will have to think about putting the best possible team on the field for 2024 and recently spoke to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball about that. They are set to have an outfield of Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, though there are some different options for a fourth outfielder, with Elias naming Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna as suitors for such a gig.

Kjerstad had a solid showing last year, tearing through Double-A and Triple-A before getting into 13 major league contests. The club probably wants to find him regular playing time somewhere, and he has played some first base before, but Elias shot down the notion of him moving there on a regular basis. “I don’t have designs on him becoming a full-time first baseman,” he said. “I think it’s something more that we’re trying to get it to a point where it’s in his back pocket and we can tap into it a couple of days a week.” The club has Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn as options for first base and designated hitter, so it’s not even a guarantee that there’s a cleaner path to playing time for Kjerstad there.

Despite all the crowding, the O’s have some openness to bringing in another outfielder, though it seems the odds of that happening are low. “I still see a ton of playing time and a lot of at-bats outside of our three primary outfielders,” Elias said. “Right now, this is up for grabs. These guys, I don’t think any of them have really proven it yet over a long period of time in the majors, so we’re cognizant of that. If we can find external insurance or external help in this department, it’s not going to close the doors for those guys, and it wouldn’t be unwelcome from our end, either. Competition is good. Depth is good. These seasons are so unpredictable. Odds are you’ll get some injuries, so we have to prepare for all that. We’ll talk to free agents that might be a fit for joining our outfield mix, but we have high hopes for the names that I mentioned.”

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Holliday, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | December 5, 2023 at 7:53pm CDT

The Red Sox have been focused on pitching help first and foremost this offseason, yet that isn’t the team’s only target area. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) that the Sox are looking at second basemen on both the trade and free agent markets, though a new infielder is likeliest to come via trade. Breslow implied that the Red Sox would first like to address their pitching needs, so it may be some time yet before a second-base answer comes into focus.

A whopping 11 players saw at least a little time at second base for the 2023 Red Sox, but this revolving door combined for 0.0 bWAR, as only three teams got less production from their second basemen. Enmanuel Valdez, Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec, or (when he isn’t in center field) Ceddanne Rafaela all look like the top internal candidates for the keystone heading into the offseason, but Boston would clearly like to better solidify the position. With a somewhat thin free agent class of midfielders available, it isn’t surprising that Breslow would prefer to bring in a higher-caliber upgrade in trade talks.

Mike Elias Discusses Upcoming Orioles Offseason

By Nick Deeds | October 12, 2023 at 4:43pm CDT

Orioles GM Mike Elias spoke to reporters this afternoon in an end-of-season press conference on the heels of the club being swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers on Tuesday. As relayed by reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com and Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner), Elias discussed an array of topics during the presser, including the club’s plans for the offseason and the upcoming 2024 campaign.

Following a 101-win campaign during which the club spent just $66MM on player payroll per RosterResource, Elias notably was noncommittal when asked whether or not the club planned to increase payroll this offseason. The Orioles GM simply noted that it’s still “day one” of Baltimore’s offseason, rather than providing a concrete answer about the club’s payroll expectations. Despite Elias demurring regarding the club’s 2024 payroll, he did note that the club has missed out on some preferred free agent and trade targets this year, and that “those pursuits will be on the menu again” this offseason.

Though Elias wouldn’t commit to increasing payroll next year, it’s worth noting that it would be difficult for the club to avoid increasing it’s payroll at least somewhat. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the club’s sixteen arbitration-eligible players to command a combined $55MM in salary for the 2024 season. That would leave the Orioles just $11MM in salary to pay existing commitments to Felix Bautista and James McCann and round out the rest of the club’s roster, which will see both second baseman Adam Frazier and right-hander Kyle Gibson head back to free agency after signing one-year deals with the club this past offseason.

While Elias did not reveal the club’s contract situations regarding either himself or manager Brandon Hyde, he confirmed both of them would return to the club for the 2024 campaign in their current roles. Elias spoke glowingly of Hyde during the presser, saying that the 50-year-old skipper “had an unbelievable season” in 2023 and that he expects Hyde to follow up his runner-up finish in AL Manager of the Year voting last season with a win this year.

The Orioles also offered a handful of updates regarding their players during the presser. Left-hander John Means missed most of the 2023 campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery before returning in September with a strong 2.66 ERA across four starts. Despite that performance, Means was left off the club’s ALDS roster due to elbow soreness, an ominous sign for an player coming off UCL surgery. Fortunately for both Means and the Orioles, the issue appears to have been very minor. Elias told reporters that Means is in “good shape” and should be fully ready for Spring Training come February. Means figures to factor into a 2024 rotation mix that also seems likely to feature Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer.

One other potential entrant into the club’s 2024 rotation mix is left-hander DL Hall. A consensus top-100 prospect entering the season even after his uneven big league debut in 2022, Hall has been a starter for 81 of his 96 career appearances in the minors despite being used primarily out of the bullpen in the big leagues. He was impressive in 19 1/3 innings of relief this year at the big league level, with a 3.26 ERA and 3.00 FIP, though he made just one appearance that lasted longer than two innings.

While Hyde praised Hall’s work with the club during the regular season last month out of the bullpen, he also noted that the club hasn’t discussed what his role next year will be, though Hyde emphasized that Hall will play a significant part in the club’s plans for 2024 regardless of his role. If Hall doesn’t wind up stretched back out for a shot at a rotation job in Spring Training, he could be given the opportunity to work as a high-leverage relief arm aside Yennier Cano in the absence of Bautista, who acted as the club’s main closer this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Perhaps most excitingly for Orioles fans, Elias did not push back against suggestions that top prospect Jackson Holliday could be in play for the big league roster next spring.

“I think when you are 19 and then you’re 20, that’s one year but that’s a lot of aging and physical development,” Elias said of Holiday, who turns 20 in December. “I can’t wait to see what he looks like in spring training.”

Holliday certainly made an impact during his first full professional season, slashing .323/.442/.499 with a 17.4% walk rate against a 20.3% strikeout rate in 581 trips to the plate across four levels of the minor leagues. That being said, Holliday’s experience at Triple-A didn’t go quite as smoothly as his overall numbers might suggest. In 91 plate appearances at the highest level of the minor leagues, the youngster slashed .267/.396/.400, though he did maintain his impressive walk (17.6%) and strikeout (18.9%) rates from the lower levels of the minors.

If Holliday manages to make the club’s Opening Day roster, Baltimore would be faced with a serious infield logjam. Both Holliday and Gunnar Henderson would presumably be in line for regular starts, and with first base likely dominated by some combination of Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn the club would have just one infield spot to dedicate to a group that includes Ramon Urias, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, Jorge Mateo, and Terrin Vavra, not to mention additional youngsters like Coby Mayo.

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

By Brad Johnson | September 25, 2023 at 10:43pm CDT

As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays’ Stadium Agreement

By Darragh McDonald | September 20, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

MLBTR continues Previewing The Free Agent Class (1:30)
The Mets hire David Stearns and the Red Sox fire Chaim Bloom (5:35)
The Rays announced a new stadium agreement, which could pave the way for league expansion (14:00)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

Why would the Nationals prevent Stephen Strasburg from retiring? (21:25)
Will the prospect promotion incentives affect the trajectory of Jackson Holliday or Jackson Chourio? (25:40)
Should the Padres trade Juan Soto or hold for one more year? (29:10)

Check out our past episodes!

Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation – listen here
Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender – listen here
MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire – listen here

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Lawlar, Miller

By Brad Johnson | September 11, 2023 at 7:12pm CDT

A hearty welcome to Pete Crow-Armstrong. We discussed his case for promotion last week. Though he had seven hits in 10 plate appearances over the weekend, this promotion is all about his glove. Anything he adds with his bat is gravy.

We’ll cover more recent and potential call-ups in today’s edition of Big Hype Prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 520 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .326/.444/.504

As I noted last week, Holliday’s promotion to Triple-A means we finally get access to public exit velocities. Those go a long way to influencing when a prospect earns his first promotion to the Majors. His 89.6 mph average and 103.7 mph max EVs in 30 plate appearances aren’t particularly impressive. They suggest the Orioles are better off with their existing middle infielders. Overall, he’s hitting just .200/.333/.280 in Triple-A. One silver lining, he’s posted more walks than strikeouts. Of course, we’re also talking about a tiny sample. That should go without saying.
Before anyone frets about his lack of pop in 30 plate appearances, an acquaintance was nice enough to pass along his Double-A data. His 109.7 mph max EV is excellent for a 19-year-old at any level. The chart I received doesn’t list an average, but it’s visually somewhere between 90 and 93 mph – also excellent.

Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 486 PA, 30 HR, 5 SB, .330/.391/.604

Wander Franco left the Rays in a tough spot, relying on the soft-hitting Taylor Walls and Osleivis Basabe to handle shortstop. Caminero represents a “go-for-power” alternative. Though he mostly plays third base these days, that decision was at least partly in deference to his expected future role. Caminero might not be much of a downgrade defensively – Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender. Caminero is still athletic enough to cover shortstop at present. Since August 25, he batted .354/.436/.917 with eight home runs in 55 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

An injury to Adolis Garcia opened the door for Carter to join the Rangers roster. He was reportedly already under consideration, the injury merely turned “when” to “now.” Oft-compared to Brandon Nimmo (they’re eerily similar), Carter plays within himself. Not all scouts appreciate this – the current meta is all about chasing extreme outcomes. In particular, he looks like he should be able to hit for power, but he maximizes for on base percentage rather than slugging. That’s just the first of many commonalities with Nimmo. The Rangers have a reputation for forcing their prospects to produce pulled, fly ball contact. That Carter reached the Majors despite eschewing organizational preferences suggests there’s an interesting behind-the-scenes tale to tell.

Jordan Lawlar, 21, SS, ARI (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 490 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .278/.378/.496

Questions about Lawlar’s hit tool mostly fly under the radar thanks to heady results and plus shortstop defense. He’s considered one of the best athletes in the sport. The most optimistic scouts consider him a 70 overall on the 20-80 scale. Aside from consistency of contact, Lawlar offers the total package. He’s an above-average runner, fields and throws well, and already flashes 30 homer upside as part of a discipline-forward approach. Though he’s not as extreme as Anthony Volpe, there’s a chance Lawlar’s early outcomes follow a similar track.

Mason Miller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
23.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.09 ERA

Miller returned from injury on September 6. He’s scheduled to make his first start since April on Monday. A hard-thrower with a limited repertoire and a long injury history, Miller has rare potential to overpower Major League hitters. Developed as a starter, evaluators remain split on his ultimate role. A proactive conversion to relief could help to lengthen his career – or at least improve his effectiveness. As a starter, the range of outcomes looks something like Tyler Glasnow to Michael Kopech with a real chance that he’s usually too hurt to contribute.

Three More

Jackson Ferris, CHC (19): I knew there was a fifth Jackson I forgot last week. Ferris is the also-ran among the prominent Jacksons in baseball, but he still tracks as a potential Top 100 prospect within the coming years. The southpaw has a repertoire of four average or better offerings backed by presently poor command. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 12.38 K/9, 5.30 BB/9, and a 53.4 percent ground ball rate in Low-A.

Brooks Lee (22): The Twins are relatively deep in the middle infield or else Lee would be on the shortlist for a promotion. He’s a well-rounded player who lacks standout tools or notable shortcomings. He’s posted above-MLB-average EVs in Triple-A.

Luisangel Acuna, NYM (21): Since joining the Mets organization, Acuna has cut his swinging strike rate nearly in half. He also cut his power in half. The net result is a sharp decline in offensive value. For now, this has the look of a step back for (hopefully) two steps forward.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Merrill, Jobe, Chourio, Crow-Armstrong

By Brad Johnson | September 4, 2023 at 4:03pm CDT

Big Jackson Prospects is back with another edition starring members of the new Jackson Four.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517

Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.

To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454

Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.

Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.

Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471

One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499

Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.

Three More

Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.

Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.

Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

By Brad Johnson | May 22, 2023 at 5:35pm CDT

Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Adell, Jones, Lawlar, Green, Holliday

By Brad Johnson | April 10, 2023 at 6:50pm CDT

Full-season minor leagues are all active. This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a look at some of the early-season leaders at various levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jo Adell, 24, OF, LAA (AAA)
42 PA, 7 HR, .353/476/1.088

We’ve been here before with Adell, a prospect who isn’t technically a prospect anymore. Over the last three seasons, Adell has amassed 561 plate appearances at Triple-A. In that time, he’s hit 43 home runs. Though he’s yet to make an impact at the Major League level, his batted ball characteristics are encouraging. Adell enjoys above-average exit velocities. He’s battled inconsistency with his launch angle in the Majors, an issue that hasn’t been as apparent in the minors. Optimists, myself included, still believe he can make the adjustments necessary to make a splash on the big stage. Presently, he has one single, four doubles, and seven home runs.

Spencer Jones, 21, OF, NYY (A+)
15 PA, 1 HR, .462/.533/.846

A hulking outfielder with mammoth power, Jones will inevitably be compared to Aaron Judge. The left-handed hitting slugger also has surprising mobility as evidenced by 10 steals in 95 Low-A plate appearances last season. He’s expected to stick in center field despite his size. Scouts fret about his hit tool – much as they once did with Judge. It’s also fair to note that Jones only began to play like a true prospect partway through his draft season. We’re working with a short track record of success. In the low minors, he’s managed a swinging strike rate around 12 percent, a figure similar to that managed by Judge last season and better than most power-over-contact sluggers.

Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
13 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .300/.462/.600

Considered one of the best athletes in the minors, Lawlar could surge to top overall prospect status later this summer. The only drawback with Lawlar is a below-average hit tool which could affect his consistency at the dish. Otherwise, he’s a disciplined batter with burgeoning power and above-average speed. He’s defensively adept. Few prospects are as blue chip as Lawlar. He has a chance to force the Diamondbacks hand this season, much as Corbin Carroll did in 2022. Worth noting, his home venue with Double-A Amarillo is considered one of the friendliest for hitters.

Elijah Green, 19, OF, WSH (A)
13 PA, 2 SB, .500/.548/.583

Green is the sort of prospect fantasy baseball fans love – a legitimate 30/30 threat with room to exceed even those heady aspirations. Over his brief pro career, a span of just 65 plate appearances, he’s made the most of his contact. He’s also susceptible to strikeouts, an issue that has plagued him since he gained prospect fame as a high school junior. Despite more than ample speed to remain in center field, early reports suggest he’ll be better suited to an outfield corner due to poor reads and inefficient routes. Time and effort could salve those concerns. Even if he lands in a corner, his power is more than ample. Now we wait to learn if he makes enough contact. The downside might look something like an outfielder version of Patrick Wisdom.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A)
15 PA, .462/.533/.692

A left-handed hitter, Holliday has the talent and baseball acumen to carve out a long career. While I usually go out of my way to describe how a prospect might fail – public analysis is susceptible to unfettered optimism – there isn’t much to say about Holliday. If things go his way, he could finish 2023 at Double-A with a chance to debut in mid-2024. The Orioles have taken a more temperate approach with their other recent top prospects. Those players, like Gunnar Henderson, required considerable development before they truly looked like Major League players. Holliday seemingly doesn’t require a breakout or new skills development. He’s in want of experience and age-related strength.

Three More

Matt Liberatore, STL (23): Profiled last week, Liberatore’s second turn of the season was a near-mirror replica of his first start. In both cases, he pitched five innings allowing a pair of walks with seven strikeouts. The Cardinals are experiencing some difficulties with their starting pitchers so we might see Liberatore soon.

Chase Silseth, LAA (22): Silseth, like Liberatore, was profiled last week and held opponents scoreless for a second consecutive appearance. Overall, he’s pitched 11 innings with only three hits allowed, three walks, and 13 strikeouts. The Angels are accustomed to running a six-man rotation in the Shohei Ohtani era and could call upon Silseth.

Hao-Yu Lee, PHI (20): Lee has demonstrated discipline, feel for contact, and pull-oriented power. He doesn’t appear on Top 100 prospect lists mainly due to his size and modest mobility. Lee was developed as a utility fielder but could settle permanently at second base this season. He should reach the upper minors by mid-season.

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