Reds, Royals Finalize Trade Involving Brady Singer, Jonathan India
The Royals and Reds made the biggest move of the non-tender deadline. Kansas City acquired infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer from Cincinnati for starting pitcher Brady Singer. The Royals had space on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary.
It’s a swap of big league veterans between teams that expect to compete for a playoff spot. India and Singer are former college teammates at Florida who each went in the first round of the 2018 draft. Both players got to the big leagues within a couple seasons and have been solid contributors over four years at the MLB level. They’re each under club control for another two seasons.
India started his career with a bang. He won the National League’s Rookie of the Year award in 2021, hitting .269/.376/.459 with 21 homers and 34 doubles while appearing in 150 games. India hasn’t quite maintained that level in the ensuing three seasons. That’s partially due to injury, as he missed time with hamstring and foot issues over the next two years. He combined for a .246/.333/.394 slash with 27 homers in 222 contests over that stretch. That’s middling production for a player who spent his home games at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, arguably the league’s most hitter-friendly venue aside from Coors Field.
He rebounded to an extent this past season. The Reds toyed with using him in a multi-positional role, but Matt McLain’s Spring Training shoulder injury pressed India back into everyday work at second base. While most of Cincinnati’s infield sputtered, India ran a .248/.357/.392 slash with 15 homers across 637 plate appearances. He avoided the injured list and turned in his best numbers since his rookie year.
India doesn’t have huge home run potential. He hasn’t reached 20 homers since his debut season. He’s unlikely to find more over-the-fence pop at spacious Kauffman Stadium. India has solid gap power and a good awareness of the strike zone. He drew walks at a career-best 12.6% clip while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 19.6% rate this year. India has hit at the top of the Cincinnati order for most of his career, a role he’ll now play in Kansas City.
The Royals got very little out of the leadoff spot in 2024. Skipper Matt Quatraro used glove-first third baseman Maikel Garcia as his primary leadoff option. Garcia hit .231 with a meager .281 on-base percentage over 626 trips to the plate. The Royals prioritized finding a more consistent on-base presence who they could plug in atop the lineup. That’ll allow MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. and middle-of-the-order bats Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino to come up with more opportunities to drive in runs.
India should step into the leadoff spot, though it remains to be seen what position he’ll play. He has played the entirety of his nearly 4000 innings in the majors at second base. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have graded him as a subpar defender over his career. Statcast felt he turned in average glovework this past season, though DRS rated him 10 runs below par.
Overall, India’s 2024 season wasn’t much better than the production turned in by incumbent second baseman Michael Massey. The lefty-hitting Massey batted .259/.294/.449 with 14 homers over 356 plate appearances while batting early-season back injuries. India gets on base more consistently, but Massey has higher power upside. They’re each middling defenders who are unlikely to win any Gold Gloves.
Acquiring India to move Massey to the bench would be puzzling. The Royals could look to bounce India around the diamond as the Reds considered last spring. He was a third baseman at Florida and in his early minor league career. The Reds could try him at the hot corner while kicking Garcia into a utility role, though Statcast has graded India’s arm strength as middling even by second base standards. (Playing him at third could free the Royals to shop Garcia to teams that might play him at shortstop.) The Royals could bump India or Massey into the corner outfield, curtailing playing time for the underperforming duo of MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe.
In any case, it’s clear the Royals placed a premium on getting a leadoff hitter. They’re paying a significant price to get him. Teams are generally loath to part with controllable starting pitching. Singer is a quality mid-rotation arm. His career 4.28 ERA reflects some inconsistency, but he has posted a sub-4.00 mark in two of the past three years.
That includes a 3.71 showing over a full slate of 32 starts this year. Singer racked up a career-best 179 2/3 innings with generally impressive peripherals. He struck out a decent 22.3% of opponents while getting ground-balls at an above-average 47.1% clip. Singer has always been a quality strike-thrower, and he again kept his walk rate to a tidy 7.1% mark.
Singer’s stuff isn’t overpowering. He’s primarily a sinker-slider pitcher who sits around 92 MPH with the heater. The breaking ball is his best swing-and-miss offering, while the sinker generally plays for grounders. Singer has never found a changeup to neutralize left-handed hitters. Lefty batters have hit him at a .261/.342/.442 clip over his career and teed off to a .291/.367/.488 slash this year. Singer dominated right-handed opponents, though, holding them to a paltry .208/.252/.311 line.
The platoon issues probably cap Singer’s upside to that of a third or fourth starter. That’s still a very valuable player, and Singer’s track record of durability holds a lot of appeal to a Cincinnati rotation that was hit hard by injuries this year. He’ll slot behind Hunter Greene and alongside Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott in the middle of the staff. Top prospect Rhett Lowder could have the inside track on the fifth starter role, while Nick Martinez is back after accepting a $21.05MM qualifying offer. Martinez is no stranger to kicking between starting and late-inning relief. He could begin the season in the bullpen and move to the rotation as injuries inevitably arise.
It’s a nice get for Cincinnati, who again had questions about where they’d have played India. McLain will be back after missing all of last season. With Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, the keystone is his best path to everyday at-bats. The Reds could’ve deployed India in a utility role between first, second, designated hitter and the corner outfield. The Reds had previously been reluctant to move India, who had emerged as a leader in the clubhouse. They’ll need to fill that void off the field, but dealing him for a mid-rotation starter more effectively balances the roster.
It’s a similar thought process for the Royals, whose lineup wasn’t deep enough to match the strength of their rotation. Kansas City still has an excellent top three in Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and the re-signed Michael Wacha. Righty Alec Marsh could step into the fourth starter role. That’d leave Kyle Wright and Kris Bubic battling for the fifth starter job pending outside acquisitions. Wright, who posted a 3.19 ERA over 30 starts for the Braves in 2022, is returning after missing the entire ’24 season to shoulder surgery. Bubic rehabbed a ’23 Tommy John procedure and returned to action in a relief role last summer. The Stanford product excelled in short stints (2.67 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings) and could stretch back into a starting role.
On paper, Singer seems like the more valuable trade chip than India. That’s partially balanced by the inclusion of Wiemer, who’ll compete for a spot in K.C.’s corner outfield. A former Brewers’ draft pick out of the University of Cincinnati, Wiemer emerged as a top prospect thanks to a huge power-speed combination. The longstanding question is whether the 6’4″ outfielder would make enough contact to tap into that upside.
That hasn’t happened to this point. Wiemer, who turns 26 in February, has hit .201/.279/.349 with an elevated 28.5% strikeout rate in 438 big league plate appearances. Milwaukee moved on from the right-handed hitter at last summer’s deadline, packaging him to the Reds for a few months of Frankie Montas. Wiemer carried a .242/.387/.358 line in Triple-A at the time of that trade, but he finished the year with a dismal .190/.280/.229 showing in 118 plate appearances for Cincinnati’s top affiliate. That understandably wasn’t enough to warrant an extended look in the majors. Wiemer only took one at-bat in a Reds uniform.
Wiemer has one option year remaining and comes with at least five seasons of club control. He could be a long-term piece if he hits his stride in his mid-20s, but he’ll need to take a leap forward with his contact skills for that to happen.
The trade is close to a wash financially. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Singer for an $8.8MM salary in his penultimate arbitration season. That’d likely jump into the $12-14MM range for 2026. India will make $7.05MM next year and will go through arbitration again in the following offseason. Wiemer will play for around the league minimum for at least another two seasons. Depending on Singer’s ultimate arbitration price, the Reds are adding about $2MM to their payroll.
C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that the Royals and Reds had discussed an India/Singer framework. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Royals were acquiring Wiemer.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Reds, Royals Reportedly Discussing Jonathan India Trade
The Reds and Royals are discussing a trade that would send second baseman Jonathan India to Kansas City in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer, according to a report from C. Trent Rosencrans and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal adds that a deal between the sides is not considered close and that India is one of “several” hitters the Royals are looking at as they consider dealing from their rotation depth.
India, 28 next month, is coming off something of a rebound campaign in 2024. After averaging just 111 games per season in each of the past two years with below average offensive numbers while dealing with hamstring issues and a bout of plantar fasciitis in his left foot, he posted his best season since winning the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year award this past year. In 637 trips to the plate across 151 games this year, India slashed a respectable .248/.357/.392 (108 wRC+) while slugging 15 homers and stealing 13 bases. He also struck out just 19.6% of the time while walking at a 12.6% clip, making him one of just three players (alongside Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto) to strike out in less than 20% of his plate appearances with a walk rate of at least 12%.
That impressive discipline at the plate makes India a valuable asset even as his power and speed numbers fall short of 20/20 potential. Just five qualified second basemen posted better offensive seasons by measure of wRC+ than India did last year, and his 2.8 fWAR ranks seventh at the position. On the surface, losing that production would seem to be debilitating for a Reds offense that was bottom-five in baseball by measure of wRC+ in 2024. With that being said, it’s worth noting that India appeared likely to enter 2024 without a clear position to call home until 2023 Rookie of the Year finalist Matt McLain missed the entire 2024 campaign due to shoulder surgery and top prospect Noelvi Marte missed the first half of the season due to an 80-game PED suspension.
Marte struggled badly (31% strikeout rate, 46 wRC+) in 66 games with the Reds this year after returning from his suspension, but McLain proved to be a dynamic offensive force for the club in his 89-game rookie campaign back in 2023. Then just 23 years old, the youngster slashed an excellent .290/.357/.507 (127 wRC+) with 16 homers and 14 steals in just 403 plate appearances. If he can produce anything close to that level of offensive firepower over a full season in 2025, that would more than make up for the loss of India’s bat from the lineup. It’s possible the club could find a way to keep both second basemen in the lineup—McLain has gotten a handful of reps at third base and in center field during his recent stint in Arizona Fall League— but with TJ Friedl just one season removed from a 3.9-win campaign in center and the Reds unlikely to give up on Marte after less than half a season in the majors, it could make sense for the club to cash in on India now.
One sensible way for the club to do that would be targeting a quality rotation arm like Singer. Both Singer and India are under control through the end of the 2026 season, making the swap a fairly clean one from a team control perspective. India is guaranteed a $5MM salary for 2025 and is arbitration eligible for 2026, while MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Singer for an $8.8MM salary in his penultimate trip through arbitration this winter. That slight net increase in salary commitment likely wouldn’t be a problem for a Reds club that plans to run a payroll “at or above” 2024 levels next year, giving them some breathing room financially for next season.
In Singer, the Reds would receive a quality mid-rotation arm to pair with Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo behind staff ace Hunter Greene. The 28-year-old righty pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA (114 ERA+) with a 3.94 FIP in 179 2/3 innings of work across 32 starts last year. That’s a major step forward from a disastrous 2023 season that saw him post a 5.52 ERA in 159 2/3 frames, but not quite at the level of his 153 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball the year prior. Overall, Singer has pitched to a 4.15 ERA (103 ERA+) with a 3.94 FIP over the last three seasons, which sets up a solid floor for the right-hander looking forward even if he doesn’t return to the level of production he flashed in 2022.
With Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha all locked into the club’s rotation for 2025, it makes plenty of sense for the Royals to explore trades from their crop of back-end arms that includes not only Singer but also Kyle Wright, Alec Marsh, and Kris Bubic. Those latter two names have already found themselves in the rumor mill this winter, and Rosenthal’s report confirms the Royals are still “entertaining” the possibility of moving either Marsh or Bubic instead of Singer, though he adds that Lugo, Ragans, and Wacha are all understood to be “essentially off-limits.” With that being said, he notes that teams interested in contending immediately prefer Singer to both Marsh and Bubic and the Royals would likely have to settle for a younger, less established hitter if they were to deal either of their lesser arms.
Bringing India would be a somewhat complicated fit for the Royals, however, as it would likely displace incumbent second baseman Michael Massey. Massey enjoyed the best season of his career in 2024, slashing .259/.294/.449 with 14 homers and a 102 wRC+ in 356 trips to the plate while playing around back issues early in the season. Both Massey and India have played second base almost exclusively in their careers to this point, though Massey has one appearance at the hot corner and the Reds toyed with the idea of playing India at first base or in left field last year before losing McLain for the season. It’s certainly feasible to imagine the Royals finding appropriate playing time for both players by utilizing the DH on days where Salvador Perez is catching, especially if India can also mix into the outfield on occasion.
Yankees Interested In Jonathan India
The Yankees have issues on their infield and have interest in second baseman Jonathan India of the Reds, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN. However, Castillo cautions that the Reds aren’t expected to make India available unless they fall out of the playoff race in the next week.
India, 27, is having a resurgent season after a couple of rough campaigns. He has eight home runs this year and is drawing walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances while only striking out 19.7% of the time. His .275/.377/.420 batting line translates to a 123 wRC+, indicating he’s been 23% better than league average at the plate overall.
On top of his offensive contributions, he has stolen nine bases in ten tries. His second base defense hasn’t been well regarded in his career but is better this year, at least by one metric. Defensive Runs Saved still hates him, with a grade of -8 so far this season, but Outs Above Average has him at +1. Since he has -22 OAA in his career, that’s a notable improvement.
At least in terms of the offense, it’s a return to his Rookie of the Year form. He got that trophy in 2021 after he hit 21 home runs and slashed .269/.376/.459 for a wRC+ of 122 while also stealing 12 bases. As mentioned, the past two seasons have been a struggle. India spent time on the injured list due to a right hamstring injury in 2022 and left foot plantar fasciitis in 2023 as he hit a combined .246/.333/.394 in those two campaigns for a 98 wRC+.
Now that he’s back in good form, it’s understandable that the Yankees would want him. In addition to his skills on the field, he’s fairly affordable. He’s making $3.8MM this year and $5MM plus incentives next year, with another season of arbitration control beyond that. That’s likely attractive for the Yankees since they are set to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and well over the top threshold, meaning any money they add to their ledger comes with a 110% tax hit.
Despite all that spending, their infield is in rough shape. Ben Rice is doing a passable job covering for the injured Anthony Rizzo at first base, but both second baseman Gleyber Torres and shortstop Anthony Volpe have been subpar at the plate this year.
DJ LeMahieu missed the first two months of the season due to a right foot contusion and has been awful since been reinstated. While playing regularly at third base, he is hitting .183/.275/.229 this year for a wRC+ of just 52. He only has a .217 batting average on balls in play but he’s also not clobbering the ball, with most of his Statcast metrics trending down relative to his previous levels.
India has only ever played second base in his major league career, though he was almost moved into a utility role this year. The Reds graduated a large number of prospects last year, including infielders Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marté. The club then added to that group by signing free agent Jeimer Candelario. With India coming off those two rough seasons, he was going to be pushed into bouncing to first base and left field and even found himself in offseason trade rumors.
But that calculation quickly changed when Marté received an 80-game PED suspension and McLain required shoulder surgery. That put India back as the club’s everyday second baseman and it’s still the only position he’s ever played at the big league level.
Unless the Yankees want to get creative, then acquiring India would seemingly cut into the playing time of Torres more than anyone else. There would be some logic to that both from the perspective of 2024 and also beyond, as Torres is an impending free agent while India has a couple of years of additional club control. Torres is also slashing just .230/.307/.351 for a wRC+ of 90 this year with subpar defensive grades as well. The designated hitter slot is currently open with Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list, so it’s theoretically possible for India and Torres to be in the same lineup, but Stanton could be back soon and the Yanks have been putting Aaron Judge in there fairly regularly with Stanton out.
Though he may fit with the Yankees, there’s no guarantee he’s available. As Castillo reported, the Reds are still in the playoff race and may not want to sell. As of this writing, they are 49-53 and just four games away from a playoff spot in the National League. President of baseball operations Nick Krall recently suggested that the club had not yet made firm decisions about its deadline approach.
Cincinnati would naturally prefer to hang onto India if they’re still trying to climb back into the race, but he could be a logical trade candidate if they fall out of things. Marte has since returned from his suspension and McLain could return from his injury absence before the season is out. Though India has gotten back on track this year, the club could theoretically have an infield mix of Marté, De La Cruz, McLain, Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand by next year, with Spencer Steer also in the mix. Candelario is signed to a three-year, $45MM deal that he’s not currently playing up to. The others in that group are still in their pre-arbitration years and likely to be viewed as long-term building blocks by the Reds, which could have India looking like an odd man out again.
But if the Reds hang onto India, the Yankees will face a challenge in finding other infield upgrades, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a post for Front Office subscribers. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is perhaps available but he would come with risk as he has been primarily playing in the outfield in recent seasons. The Yanks have been connected to him before but Castillo’s report adds that the Yankees have some concerns about how he would fit in their clubhouse. Isaac Paredes or Brandon Lowe of the Rays could be good fits but big trades between divisional rivals are rare. Other possibilities include Luis Rengifo of the Angels and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs, though it’s unclear if those clubs are willing to part with those players.
GM: Reds Have Yet To Commit To Deadline Strategy
The Reds entered the 2024 season as hopeful contenders but find themselves five games under .500 and 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead in the National League Central. It’s certainly not how they drew things up, but the tightly bunched NL Wild Card picture still leaves Cincinnati with some legitimate playoff aspirations. The Reds are only four games back of the third NL Wild Card spot at the moment. They’re one of many teams on the Wild Card bubble whose deadline activity will likely hinge on how the team plays in the coming weeks. In fact, general manager Brad Meador effectively confirmed as much to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
“We have to wait and see how we finish off this road trip and the homestand coming up, and then we’ll see,” Meador tells Wittenmyer. “We’re talking about it. We’d love to be able to add, but realistically, we’ll probably just have to see how it goes.”
The Reds control their own fate, in many respects, and they’ll head into the upcoming All-Star break with a series of eminently winnable games. They took the first of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium last night and have a tough task finishing off that series, but they’ll close out the first half against three teams with sub-.500 records — including the two worst clubs in the NL. On Friday, Cincinnati commences a 10-game homestand where they’ll host the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins for three, four and three games, respectively. The Reds will open the second half with a nine-game road trip through Washington, Atlanta and St. Petersburg before starting a home series against the Cubs on July 29 (one day before the July 30 trade deadline).
It’s a pivotal stretch of games for the Reds, to say the least. A winning streak could catapult them north of .500 and prominently into the Wild Card hunt (while narrowing the division gap), while an underwhelming stretch against some of the less-competitive clubs on the upcoming schedule could serve as a death knell for their 2024 postseason aspirations. Playing roughly .500 ball between now and July 30 would leave the front office with some tougher decisions to make. For now, Meador acknowledged “vague” conversations exploring both sides of the market while cautioning nothing is close.
Among the most notable trade candidates on the roster, if the Reds go that route, will be Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with five homers and eight steals on the season. He’s fanned in a career-low 19.7% of his plate appearances and has restored his walk rate to a hefty 12.8% after seeing it dip to a combined 8.6% in 2022-23.
India is playing out the first season of a two-year, $8.8MM contract that bought out two of his three arbitration seasons. He’s locked into a $5MM salary for the 2025 season and would be arbitration-eligible in the 2025-26 offseason before hitting the open market post-2026. He’s not a good defensive second baseman, but he’s been a line-drive machine at the plate this year (24.9%) while showing his best K-BB profile since winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2021.
While India conceded to Wittenmyer that last year’s slate of trade rumblings got to him mentally, this time around he feels more prepared for it. The 27-year-old emphasized a desire to remain in Cincinnati long-term, noting he “loves” the city and organization while simultaneously acknowledging that a potential trade is beyond his control and not something on which he plans to dwell.
Montas would be the roster’s most straightforward trade candidate. The 31-year-old hasn’t bounced back to his Oakland form but has been healthy with the Reds after missing nearly all of the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery. He’s on a one-year, $16MM contract and has pitched to a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings across 15 starts.
Montas’ 95.1 mph average heater (via Statcast) is down from its 96.8 mph peak, and his 18.6% strikeout rate isn’t close to his career-best 26.6% mark, set back in 2021. Still, he’s pitched like a capable enough fourth starter and has seen his velocity build as the season has progressed. Montas sat 94 mph with his fastball through late April but is at 95.5 mph dating back to May 1.
Over Montas’ past six starts, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with a much-improved 23.3% strikeout rate. His 10.9% walk rate in that stretch is too high, but the velocity and missed bats are beginning to resurface. If he can continue some of those positive gains in velocity and strikeouts, Montas could be of interest to teams looking to add to the middle tier of their rotation.
The Reds have other candidates to be moved, though their willingness to give out some surprising opt-out clauses over the winter could work against them in that regard. Veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez signed two-year contracts worth $16MM and $26MM, respectively, but the second season of each of those deals is a player option. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco detailed for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, such clauses often present severe impediments to trading a player.
Other names to watch in the event of a Reds sale would include relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Brent Suter. All three are free agents at season’s end. Each has had varying levels of success this season while playing on an affordable salary. The return for any one of those three likely wouldn’t be enormous but could shed a small money off the payroll while adding a lottery-ticket prospect to the lower tiers of the farm system.
All of that is putting the cart before the horse, however. The Reds’ roster will have a nice window of winnable games to convince the front office that adding pieces is the proper route in the weeks ahead. Cincinnati has received negligible production from the outfield, designated hitter and first base this season — although Noelvi Marte‘s recent return likely means they’ll install a productive hitter (Jeimer Candelario) in at first base more regularly now. Adding some kind of bat to help boost the offense would be prudent — assuming the Reds can keep themselves afloat or even improve upon their standing in the next couple weeks.
Reds Notes: Marte, Candelario, Lodolo, McLain, India
The infield mix in Cincinnati got a bit less crowded yesterday when third baseman Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Boldenone, a banned performance-enhancing substance. That loss of Marte figures to substantially impact the club’s plans in the first half of the season, as Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer notes that the 22-year-old was slated to start anywhere from six to nine of every ten games for the club this season. That leaves around 50 to 70 starts in the first half of the season to be accounted for, though the Reds fortunately have plenty of options at their disposal who will be able to help cover for Marte’s absence.
In particular, Goldsmith notes that offseason addition Jeimer Candelario is expected to get the lion’s share of playing time at third base, which would open up starts at first base for the likes of Christian Encarnacion-Stand and Jonathan India, as well as DH starts for outfielders such as Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley. While Cincinnati’s decision to not only decline to deal from the crowded infield mix in order to improve other areas of the roster, but also bolster said infield with the addition of Candelario was somewhat surprising at the time, in light of Marte’s suspension the choice to maintain the club’s depth ahead of the 2024 campaign appears to have been a wise one.
While Marte’s absence appears likely to increase the playing time available for several players, the specific positions where that playing time is less certain given the number of versatile players the club has at its disposal. Manager David Bell recently indicated to reporters (including Goldsmith) that Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain would remain focused on shortstop and second base, respectively, in light of Marte’s injury, while Spencer Steer will continue to be a regular presence in the club’s outfield mix. That being said, Bell also noted that Candelario still figures to see some time at first base.
Meanwhile, each of De La Cruz, McLain and even Steer are capable of playing all around the infield, and India figures to play a mix of first, second, third, and left field this season. With Encarnacion-Strand likely to get regular time between first base and DH, some DH starts likely to be offered to catcher Tyler Stephenson, and the likes of TJ Friedl, Will Benson, and Jake Fraley fighting alongside Steer for regular time in the outfield, the club still has more regulars competing for playing time than room in the starting lineup. While it should be noted that injuries and under-performance can allow those playing time issues to resolve themselves naturally throughout the season, it appears that the club’s positional mix is largely healthy entering the season.
That even goes for India and McLain, despite the fact that the pair have both largely sat out games to this point in the spring. India made his spring debut just yesterday after being slowed entering camp by a tear of his plantar fasciitis, as debut that was right in line with what was expected last month. MLB.com notes that Bell has indicated to reporters that India should have “plenty of time” to prepare himself for Opening Day later this month, and it seems reasonable to expect that the same would apply to McLain, who Bell indicated is slated to make his spring debut tomorrow. India will look to build on a 2023 season that saw him slash a league average .244/.338/.407 in 119 games while battling the aforementioned plantar fasciitis, while McLain figures to be a key fixture of the club’s lineup after slashing an excellent .290/.357/.507 in 403 trips to the plate during his rookie season last year.
Also poised to make his spring debut tomorrow is left-hander Nick Lodolo, who Goldsmith adds is “probably not” in position to make a start during the first week of the regular season, per Bell, with the Reds targeting a potential first start of the regular season on April 9 against the Brewers. That would leave Lodolo poised to miss the first two turns through the starting rotation to open the season, meaning the club could start the season with a rotation of Hunter Greene, Frankie Montas, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Martinez. It’s a big season for Lodolo, who struggled to a 6.29 ERA and 5.79 FIP in seven starts last year before missing the remainder of the 2023 season with a stress reaction in his left tibia. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Lodolo entered the 2022 campaign as a consensus top-40 prospect in the sport and made 19 starts for the Reds, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with a 3.90 FIP in 103 1/3 frames.
NL Central Notes: India, Ashby, Santana, Pirates
Plantar fasciitis sidelined Jonathan India last summer, and the injury is still impacting the Reds infielder’s availability as Spring Training begins. Manager David Bell told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith and other reporters that India isn’t slated to appear in a game until March 7 or 8, as India’s plantar fasciitis tore during the offseason and is still causing him some discomfort. On the plus side, the tear means that India won’t need to undergo surgery on his foot, and Bell said that India is still able to take part in baseball activity as he builds up to being game-ready.
Health is just one of many uncertainties hanging over India as he begins his fourth Major League season. Already the subject of frequent trade rumors due to Cincinnati’s plethora of up-and-coming infield talent, India looks to be moving into a utility role if he remains with the Reds, as he could be playing all over the infield, at DH, and perhaps in left field.
Other items from around the NL Central…
- Aaron Ashby is eager to be back after missing virtually all of the 2023 season due to arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder. Describing the procedure to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Ashby said “I essentially had some calcified muscle on my rotator cuff, and they went in there and clipped it right off. Once I got out of surgery the doctor was like, ‘This was best-case scenario for you.’ It’s a minimal surgery in terms of what they did, but a shoulder surgery is a shoulder surgery, and it’s tricky at times.” The southpaw’s only game action in 2023 was seven innings of minor-league rehab work in September, but he has been making good progress in Spring Training and is hoping to win a spot in the Brewers rotation, though Rosiak notes that bullpen work could help ease Ashby back into regular activity.
- Carlos Santana had interest in returning to the Pirates as a free agent this winter, with Santana telling Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he expressed this to the team when he was traded to the Brewers prior to last summer’s trade deadline. The Bucs still had some interest during the offseason even after signing Rowdy Tellez to ostensibly fill the void at first base, but Santana didn’t know why an agreement wasn’t reached. “My agent has a very good relationship with the team, but he didn’t tell me anything. I wanted to come back, but there was nothing going on,” the first baseman said. Santana instead joined the Twins on a one-year, $5.25MM deal, and the Pirates will head into 2024 with Tellez and Connor Joe as the first base platoon and Andrew McCutchen returning as the primary DH.
- This could be something of a tough read for Pirates fans, but The Athletic’s Stephen J. Nesbitt and Ken Rosenthal details some of the missteps that have slowed the team’s rebuild, such as a lack of success in international signings and some instances of a disconnect between traditional baseball teachings and the more modern approach of GM Ben Cherington. However, the largest issue is naturally the team’s lack of spending under owner Bob Nutting, as there is less margin for error for Cherington’s front office when operating within a tight budget. Nesbitt and Rosenthal’s piece was published a day before the Pirates announced a five-year, $77MM extension with Mitch Keller, which is one instance of how the Bucs have been slightly more willing to spend in order to lock up young cornerstone players.
Reds, Jonathan India Agree To Two-Year Deal
The Reds have agreed to a two-year deal with infielder Jonathan India, per a team announcement. The Boras Corporation client will be paid $3.8MM in 2024 and $5MM in 2025, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. He can earn an additional $2.05MM in 2025 based on plate appearances and games started. India had filed for a $4MM salary in his first trip through the arbitration process, while the Reds countered with a $3.2MM figure.
As a result of this agreement, the two parties will avoid an arbitration hearing both this year and next. India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, remains under club control through the 2026 season and will be eligible for arbitration one final time following the 2025 season.
India burst onto the scene with the Reds in ’21, hitting .269/.376/.459 (122 wRC+) with 21 home runs, 34 doubles, a pair of triples, a dozen steals, an 11.3% walk rate and a 22.3% strikeout rate. That performance led to a near-unanimous Rookie of the Year selection over runner-up Trevor Rogers, but India’s stock has dipped a bit since that early-career highlight.
Over the past two seasons, a hamstring strain and a bout of plantar fasciitis have limited India to 222 games and quiet possibly contributed to a decline in his production. He hasn’t been a bad hitter, but the 27-year-old’s .246/.333/.394 slash over the past two years (98 wRC+) is a good ways shy of that more impressive rookie output. Couple that with poor defensive ratings at second base (-21 Defensive Runs Saved, -16 Outs Above Average in 2022-23) and at least some of the shine has come off the 2018 No. 5 overall draft selection.
Between his downturn at the plate, the Reds’ wealth of young infield talent (e.g. Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand) and the signing of Jeimer Candelario to a three-year deal, there was a good bit of talk about a potential India trade this winter. However, Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall was nonplused with what was being offered in return for India throughout the winter and downplayed the chances of the infielder changing hands a few months back.
The addition of Candelario to an already-crowded infield mix creates something of a logjam, though Cincinnati plans to at least somewhat alleviate that crunch by moving Steer to left field on a full-time basis this coming season. Krall has previously stated that India could also begin to see some time at first base, in addition to designated hitter and his more typical work at second base.
Even with that broadening of his role, there’s still more infield options than positions for the Reds. Candelario will split time between the corners. Marte can play both positions on the left side of the infield. De La Cruz figures to get the chance to be the primary shortstop but will need to bounce back from a dreary finish to the season. McLain spent the bulk of his time in 2023 at shortstop, finishing fifth in Rookie of the Year voting himself. With De La Cruz likely back at shortstop, he could slide to the other side of the second base bag. Encarnacion-Strand has experience at the hot corner but is likely ticketed for first base and DH work.
It’s a crowded mix of players, but outside of Candelario and India, no one from the group has more than one full season of big league action under his belt. The potential for regression from one or more of those infielders is obvious, and injuries are an inevitability. The Reds, who were in the market for pitching help this winter, clearly recognized that India alone wouldn’t fetch them a meaningful rotation upgrade and have opted to hold onto the depth and stability he provides in relation to their collection of impressive but still fairly inexperienced young outfielders. An eventual trade remains plausible, particularly if enough of the young wave of big leaguers cement themselves as cornerstone pieces, but for the time being India seems quite likely to open the 2024 campaign on Cincinnati’s roster.
Reds Notes: India, Marte, Candelario
The Reds infield has been a story as far back as last summer, as opposing teams have tried to leverage Cincinnati’s depth in that regard in trade discussions. GM Nick Krall and his front office have resisted that kind of move, maintaining they’re happy to stockpile position player talent which they can rotate through the outfield and/or keep in Triple-A.
Manager David Bell addressed the infield mix this afternoon, again pointing to an expectation they’ll bounce players to various positions (relayed by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). That’s particularly true of Jonathan India, who has played exclusively second base in nearly 3000 career innings on defense. Krall suggested earlier in the offseason that Cincinnati could get India work at first base, while Sheldon writes that the 27-year-old could also see some left field reps.
Bell affirmed today that India is on board with a multi-positional role. “He just wants to be on the field and in the lineup as much as possible,” the manager said. “Obviously as a second baseman, but depending on how things shake out, to be able to get him on the field as much as he wants to be and as much as I want him to be, there may be other positions that he’ll need to play.”
India has graded as a below-average defender at the keystone over his three MLB seasons. Seeing increased action at first base or in the corner outfield could improve his defensive metrics, although more frequent work at a bat-first position would put additional pressure on him to rebound at the plate. India hasn’t taken the expected step forward since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2021. He owns a league average .246/.333/.394 slash over the past two seasons.
While India’s mediocre defensive grades are a factor in potentially moving him to a bat-first utility role, the bigger driver is Cincinnati’s glut of young middle infield options. Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte all debuted last season. McLain was excellent, hitting .290/.357/.507 over 89 games while splitting his time between the middle infield positions. De La Cruz flashed the massive physical tools that made him a top prospect, but he ultimately struggled to a .235/.300/.410 line while striking out more than a third of the time in 98 contests.
Marte had the least amount of experience of the group. He played in 35 games after being promoted in the middle of August. He made a strong first impression, running a .316/.366/.456 slash while playing mostly third base. He’s in the mix for the Opening Day job at either shortstop or the hot corner. Marte’s winter ball season was cut short by a hamstring injury, but Krall said this morning that the young infielder is recovering well and remains on track for Spring Training (relayed by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer).
While the Reds weren’t generally expected to pursue infield help this offseason, they bucked expectations by adding Jeimer Candelario on a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. Unsurprisingly, Bell stated that the veteran switch-hitter will be in the lineup on an everyday basis but could see action at a few different spots. “Between DH, first base, third base — he’s going to be an everyday player,” he said of Candelario. “There’s plenty of playing time to go around there.”
Christian Encarnacion-Strand also finds himself in the corner infield/DH mix. Spencer Steer impressed as the primary first baseman a season ago, hitting .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers in his own rookie campaign. The Candelario signing is expected to push Steer to left field on most days, although he’ll likely pick up stray DH and first base reps as the season goes along. There are a lot of options at the organization’s disposal, at least so long as everyone is healthy.
NL Notes: Padres, Phillies, India
The Padres saw four members of their rotation mix department for free agency back in November, led by reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Along with their ace southpaw, San Diego parted ways with right-handers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez, each of whom has found a new club. At least in the case of Lugo, however, it appears San Diego hoped to continue the relationship into 2024 and beyond. According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres made a four-year offer to Lugo before he landed in Kansas City on a three-year, $45MM deal last month. Lin adds that while San Diego was willing to beat the Royals’ offer in terms of years, their offer came at a lower average annual value than that of Kansas City.
That the Padres would want to reunite with Lugo is hardly a surprise given his successful 2023 with the club. After spending his entire career with the Mets prior to hitting free agency last winter, Lugo signed on with San Diego on a two-year deal with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. After spending most of his time in Queens as a reliever, Lugo stepped into the Padres’ rotation and made 26 starts for the club last year with a 3.57 ERA (115 ERA+) and 3.83 FIP in 146 1/3 innings of work. San Diego entered the winter with just Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish locked into the 2024 rotation, and the return of Lugo would have greatly improved the club’s rotation even after the Padres managed to add Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito to their Opening Day rotation mix in the Juan Soto trade.
Ultimately, of course, Lugo chose to head to Kansas City. Still, that the Padres felt they had enough room in the budget to make an offer to Lugo could be a positive sign for the club’s ability to fill the remaining holes on their roster before Opening Day. Adding at least one more starter to slot into the middle of the club’s rotation alongside King figures to be a priority for the Padres, particularly after they’ve addressed the bullpen by landing Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go in recent weeks. Beyond the rotation, the club’s lineup is in dire need of an overhaul after the club parted ways with Soto, Trent Grisham, and Matt Carpenter in trade this offseason. A left-handed bat such as Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario would make plenty of sense to occupy either left field or DH, and the club was also recently reported as being among the teams interested in center fielder Michael A. Taylor.
More from around the National League…
- As the Phillies look to augment their club with pitching and outfield depth this winter, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that they’ve received interest in a package of shortstop prospect Bryan Rincon and catching prospect Eduardo Tait from at least three clubs, though Philadelphia has rebuffed the advances of rival clubs on the duo to this point. Rincon, in February, was a 14th-round pick by the Phillies in the 2022 draft and sports strong defense along with a switch-hitting bat and a 14.8% walk rate for his career in the minor leagues against a strikeout rate of just 17.8%. Tait, meanwhile, signed with the Phillies out of Panama last year and slashed an impressive .333/.400/.517 during his first taste of affiliated ball in the Dominican Summer League.
- Among the 22 arbitration-eligible players who did not agree to a contract with his club for the 2024 season by yesterday’s deadline was Reds second baseman Jonathan India, who filed at $4MM against the club’s $3.2MM counteroffer. Reds GM Nick Krall recently spoke regarding the dispute between player and club, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. As relayed by Wittenmyer, Krall emphasized that he doesn’t consider the impending arbitration hearing to be “adversarial” and explained the $800K gap in negotiations by saying that there was a “fundamental issue” between the sides that prevented the deal from getting done. Clubs often take strict stances in arbitration negotiations because both settlements and arbitration decisions can be used as precedent for salaries not for the player in question as he advances through the arbitration process but also by future players around the league. That at times leads to tension between players and their clubs, with right-hander Corbin Burnes‘s spat with the Brewers last year standing as a recent example.
Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline
Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.
This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.
Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.
[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]
14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.
The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…
- Taylor Ward: $4.8MM in desired salary….Angels offered $4.3MM (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand)
- Jose Suarez: $1.35MM….Angels $925K (via Feinsand)
- Mauricio Dubon: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM (via Feinsand)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $19.9MM….Blue Jays $18.05MM (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet)
- Tommy Edman: $6.95MM….Cardinals $6.5MM (via Feinsand)
- J.D. Davis: $6.9MM….Giants $6.55MM (via Feinsand)
- Luis Arraez: $12MM….Marlins $10.6MM (via Feinsand)
- Tanner Scott: $5.7MM….Marlins $5.15MM (via Feinsand)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $2.9MM….Marlins $2.625MM (via Feinsand)
- Phil Bickford: $900K….Mets $815K (via Feinsand)
- Austin Hays: $6.3MM….Orioles $5.85MM (via Feinsand)
- Ryan O’Hearn: $3.8MM….Orioles $3.2MM (via Feinsand)
- Danny Coulombe: $2.4MM….Orioles $2.2MM (via Feinsand)
- Cionel Perez: $1.4MM….Orioles $1.1MM (via Feinsand)
- Jacob Webb: $1MM….Orioles $925K (via Feinsand)
- Alec Bohm: $4MM….Phillies $3.4MM (via Feinsand)
- Adolis Garcia: $6.9MM….Rangers $5MM (via Feinsand)
- Harold Ramirez: $4.3MM….Rays $3.8MM (via Feinsand)
- Jason Adam: $3.25MM….Rays $2.7MM (via Feinsand)
- Jonathan India: $4MM….Reds $3.2MM (via The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer)
- Casey Mize: $840K….Tigers $815K (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic)
- Nick Gordon: $1.25MM….Twins $900K (via Feinsand)