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MLBTR Podcast: Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
  • Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
  • Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

AL Notes: Twins, Glasnow, Cora

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While the Twins are facing an uncertain payroll situation headed into the offseason, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that won’t stop the club from picking up options on second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, noting both options are “expected” to be picked up around the league. That being said, Nightengale also notes that both players figure to be in the center of trade discussions this winter if Minnesota looks to utilize their position player depth to acquire more pitching.

That’s a familiar situation to Kepler in particular, who found his name in the rumor mill both last offseason and again at the trade deadline. After posting below-average offensive numbers in both 2021 and 2022, Kepler bounced back in a big way this season with a .260/.332/.484 slash line in 130 games, adding a plus bat to his reputation as a strong defender in the outfield. A free agent after the 2024 campaign if his option is picked up, Kepler would be an attractive one-year addition for outfield-needy teams that the Twins could afford to part with due to the presence of young outfielders like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.

Polanco, on the other hand, has team options for both 2024 and 2025 that make him a more significant player to part with. The switch-hitting infielder has been a model of consistency when on the field the past few years, with a wRC+ between 118 and 124 in every full season since 2019. That being said, he’s been plagued by injuries the past two seasons, appearing in just 80 contests for the Twins in 2023 and 104 in 2022.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a poll of MLBTR readers regarding whether or not the club should deal Polanco, with 56% of respondents voting that he should be dealt. Effective as Polanco has been, that sentiment in understandable given the club’s cluttered infield mix that features Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien and up-and-coming prospects like Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. Nightengale adds that the Twins could use Polanco in a super utility, multi-positional role next season if he’s retained for 2024. While Polanco profiles best as a second baseman, he played 15 games at third base this year and spent time at shortstop early in his career as well.

More from around the American League…

  • Ever since right-hander Tyler Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays that guaranteed him a $25MM payday in 2024, speculation has percolated throughout the baseball world that Tampa would look to move him before the final year of that contract. With RosterResource projecting the Rays for a franchise-record payroll of $130MM next year, moving Glasnow would be a viable strategy for the club if they look to get closer to their 2022 level of $79MM. That said, it’s worth noting that the Rays have indicated they’re open to increasing payroll next year and the club’s biggest area of need is the starting rotation. That need would get bigger without Glasnow, who pitched to a 3.53 ERA and 2.91 FIP across 21 starts this season. For his part, Glasnow wants to stay with the Rays in 2024 and beyond. As relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Glasnow spoke glowingly of the organization and its culture while noting the $150MM offer the club made to Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason as evidence that the club could retain him beyond 2024, if they so chose.
  • While Red Sox manager Alex Cora took himself out of the running for the club’s opening atop the baseball operations department early in the club’s search for their next GM, at the time it was believed that Cora would play a significant role in the hiring process as Boston looked to replace ousted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. This morning, however, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam notes that Cora’s role in the process may not be as substantial as previously believed. McAdam reports that a source has indicated that Cora has had very little involvement in the process to this point, though McAdam does note that the Red Sox’s intentions of involving Cora were focused on ensuring a good working relationship between the manager and his new boss. Given those goals, it’s certainly possible Cora could have greater impact on the process once the team has narrowed the field of candidates down further.

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Jorge Polanco?

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Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.

Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.

The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.

Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.

There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.

At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.

Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.

The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.

Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.

The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.

Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.

What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

What should the Twins do with Jorge Polanco?
Trade him 56.54% (2,230 votes)
Keep him 43.46% (1,714 votes)
Total Votes: 3,944

The Twins’ Breakout Rookie

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The Twins have rattled off five consecutive wins, pushing themselves a season-high six games above .500. Paired with the Guardians dropping eight of their last 10, Minnesota has stretched their lead in the AL Central to 5.5 games. All of a sudden, only the Braves have a larger cushion at the top of a division.

That’s somewhat a reflection of an otherwise dismal AL Central, of course. Yet Minnesota has a 19-12 record since the start of June and the sixth-best run differential overall (+53) among American League clubs. They’re playing like a legitimate playoff team.

Among the reasons for Minnesota’s improved production of late: a somewhat quiet building case for Rookie of the Year consideration. Edouard Julien owns a .299/.389/.512 batting line through his first 235 plate appearances. Among the 43 first-year players with 200+ trips to the dish, none is reaching base at a higher clip. Only Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Yainer Diaz and Luke Raley have a better slugging mark.

Julien has only played 65 games, roughly three-fifths of the action logged by the likes of Josh Jung and Gunnar Henderson. He’d be behind that duo in Rookie of the Year consideration if the season ended today. There’s a chance for Julien to close that gap in the season’s final couple months (particularly with Jung set to miss six weeks thanks to a thumb fracture that’ll require surgery).

Award consideration aside, the more meaningful development is the introduction of a middle-of-the-order caliber bat into Minnesota’s lineup. That didn’t come out of nowhere. The lefty-swinging Julien had been regarded as one of the more talented offensive players in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut. There’s some amount of uncertainty with any prospect before they get exposure to big league pitching, though, and Julien has only 38 games of Triple-A experience under his belt.

The 24-year-old hasn’t had any issues against MLB pitching thus far. His results in the minors had been built on power and an extremely patient plate approach. He’s showing the same profile at the MLB level. Julien almost never chases pitches off the plate; his 18.9% swing rate on offerings outside the strike zone is lowest among all MLB hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Julien is swinging at pitches within the zone at a roughly average clip. That’s generally the approach one would want to see from a hitter, particularly a rookie — patient without getting too passive.

Julien’s comfort working deep counts is naturally going to come with a fair number of strikeouts. There’s also just some swing-and-miss in his game; he’s made contact on 72.2% of his swings, roughly four percentage points below the 76.4% league average. Julien will probably strike out too often to be a .300 hitter. His .410 average on balls in play is bound for some regression.

There’s no need for Julien to run a near-.300 average to be a productive player, though. He’s going to work plenty of walks to keep his OBP floor high. Prospect evaluators have credited him with above-average to plus power potential. Julien has shown that at the MLB level, connecting on 10 homers with a quality 42.9% hard contact percentage.

The remaining concern in Julien’s offensive profile is probably his limited track record against same-handed pitching. The Twins have shielded him against southpaws, keeping him to 29 MLB plate appearances thus far. In 2022, he had marked platoon splits in Double-A. Julien hit .332/.465/.566 against righties in the minors last season compared to a .210/.373/.276 showing versus left-handers.

For now, the Twins are happy with a rookie who’s mashing right-handed pitching. The Twins have struggled as a team against southpaws, but they have Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and switch-hitting Willi Castro on hand as righty-capable infielders who can take some pressure off Julien in the short term.

Moving forward, the bigger question is where Julien fits best defensively. Scouting reports have long pegged him as a well below-average defender at second base, where he’s spent the majority of his professional career. Public metrics have panned his work over his first 366 MLB innings at the keystone.

The Twins have lived with the subpar middle infield glove to inject more life into the offense. Julien’s two promotions have been in response to injuries to Jorge Polanco. The latter is now healthy, but the Twins reshuffled their infield to keep Julien in the lineup. Polanco has started four times at third base since being reinstated from the IL on July 28, his first work at the hot corner in seven years.

Whether Minnesota feels that’s a long-term option remains to be seen. The Twins could welcome Royce Lewis back from an oblique strain within the next couple weeks. The former first overall pick has battled myriad injury issues throughout his career but been a productive player whenever healthy. Lewis is probably ticketed for regular run at the hot corner when he returns. That could push Polanco back to the keystone and perhaps move Julien into a primary designated hitter capacity.

That’d enable Minnesota to cut into the playing time of Joey Gallo, who is hitting .156/.276/.349 since an excellent first month. Beyond this season, Julien’s emergence figures to only raise more questions about the possibility of subtracting a left-handed bat to add more lineup balance. Gallo’s impending free agency will remove one player from the group, while the club will have a net $9MM option decision on Max Kepler.

If they’re comfortable with Julien as a tolerable (if fringy) defender at second base, that could lead to an interesting question on Polanco’s future. Minnesota can bring the veteran infielder back on a $10.5MM option. That’s solid value — before this year’s injury-plagued season, Polanco was one of the league’s better offensive second basemen — but could make him a potential trade candidate. The Brewers, for instance, exercised an option on Kolten Wong before dealing him to Seattle last offseason.

Those are decisions the Minnesota front office could weigh three months from now. In the interim, they’ll be thrilled with Julien’s excellent start to his career. Wherever he plays, he looks like an impact piece in the lineup, at least against right-handed pitching. The Twins are in pole position for a division title after a disappointing 2021-22 stretch, in part because of their hot-hitting rookie.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Twins, Carpenter, Ashby

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The Cardinals saw a pair of high-profile players exit today’s loss to the Cubs due to injury today. Catcher Willson Contreras exited the game in the sixth inning with right hip tightness before third baseman Nolan Arenado exited the game in the ninth inning. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Contreras felt some soreness in his hip while blocking pitches early in the game that was then aggravated upon running the bases later on, while Arenado fouled a ball off his lower left leg earlier in the game. While he initially stayed in the game, Arenado’s leg began to stiffen up during a lengthy rain delay later in the game, prompting Arenado’s exit. Per MLB.com’s John Denton, Arenado told reporters that he’ll “be fine” on Sunday, indicating he could return to the lineup without missing time. Denton added that Contreras is listed as day-to-day.

Losing either Contreras or Arenado for significant time would be a major blow to the St. Louis. While the club is in fourth place in a weak NL Central division with an abysmal 44-55 record, the club has performed better of late with a solid 17-13 record in their last thirty games. Both Arenado and Contreras have been key pieces in that success. Since that month of play began, Arenado boasts a strong .288/.336/.586 slash line while Contreras has caught fire to the tune of a .373/.472/.653 line in 21 games. If Contreras ends up missing time, the Cardinals figure to rely on youngster Ivan Herrera behind the plate alongside backup Andrew Knizner.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • With Twins infielder Jorge Polanco nearing a return from the injured list, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Polanco would be taking reps at third base during his rehab assignment. The position change, Baldelli explained, is designed to keep second baseman Edouard Julien in the lineup after Polanco’s return. Julien has been a revelation for the Twins in his rookie season, slashing a phenomenal .318/.399/.565 with a wRC+ of 167. With Polanco set to shift to the hot corner, the likes of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer figure to see their playing time reduced upon his return.
  • MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter is drawing significant trade interest, but that Detroit is expected to hold onto the lefty slugger. The 25-year-old Carpenter has done nothing but hit since reaching the majors late last season, with a .257/.317/.493 slash line in 312 career plate appearances that’s good for a wRC+ of 125. Carpenter has shown particularly prodigious power, with 17 homers despite only half a season’s worth of trips to the plate. Given his offensive success, it’s hardly a surprise that Morosi notes the Tigers see Carpenter as part of the club’s future. Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Spencer Torkelson are among the other young pieces already in the majors who could be key factors in the club’s eventual return to contention.
  • Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby has yet to pitch in the majors this year after undergoing shoulder surgery back in April, but he’s making progress toward a return at some point this season. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relays that Ashby has been on a schedule involving 30-pitch bullpen sessions on Tuesdays and Fridays, and that while there are still hurdles before he can return to game action, he’s expected to head to Arizona next week to continue his rehab. Upon his return, Ashby figures to pitch in out of the bullpen, a role in which he owns a career 3.66 ERA across 39 1/3 innings of work with a 32.5% strikeout rate.

Twins Notes: Miranda, Polanco, Prielipp

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The Twins suffered another hit to their infield depth today, as they placed third baseman Jose Miranda on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder impingement. In a corresponding move, the club called up outfielder Matt Wallner from Triple-A.

It’s been a brutal year at the plate for Miranda, who entered the season as the club’s starting third baseman but was demoted to Triple-A after slashing just .220/.275/.318 in his first 142 plate appearances this season. Since then, the Twins have been ravaged by injuries across the infield that prompted the club to give Miranda another look in the big leagues despite his meager .255/.326/.360 slash line at the Triple-A level. He ultimately recorded just 10 more at-bats in the big leagues before going down with injury, going 1 for 10 with a strikeout and no walks.

Now Miranda is joining fellow infielders Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon, and Royce Lewis on the injured list. With that group out, the Twins seem poised to rely on Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer, and Donovan Solano around the infield alongside Alex Kirilloff at first base and Carlos Correa at shortstop. Fortunately, reinforcements may be on the way in the near future. As noted by MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park, Polanco is poised to begin a rehab assignment on Sunday, indicating he’s nearing a return to the big league club. Polanco has played just 30 games this season due to injuries, and has struggled somewhat at the plate when healthy as evidenced by a .250/.291/.450 slash line (104 wRC+) that’s a far cry from the .272/.339/.455 (116 wRC+) he offered from 2018-22.

Polanco’s difficult year has allowed for the emergence of Julien, who has raked to the tune of a .279/.355/.515 slash line, good for a wRC+ of 140. With Byron Buxton entrenched as the club’s designated hitter and both Polanco and Julien limited to second base defensively, it will be a challenge for the Twins to find adequate playing time for both hitters. Last time Polanco was activated off the injured list, the club optioned Julien to Triple-A to allow both regular at-bats. Since his return to the big leagues on June 10, however, Julien has slashed a fantastic .324/.393/.568, underscoring his importance to the Twins’ lineup as currently constructed.

While Polanco’s return is certainly encouraging, Twins fans received much more concerning news today regarding the health of top pitching prospect Connor Prielipp. Per Park, Prielipp is slated to undergo surgery on his UCL next Monday, though the extent of the surgery won’t be known until the procedure occurs. The club’s second round pick in the 2022 draft, Prielipp has managed just 6 2/3 innings of work in his pro debut this season due to injuries. As noted by Park, this won’t be the first time Prielipp goes under the knife due to UCL issues, as the lefty underwent Tommy John surgery while in college back in 2021.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Polanco, Benintendi

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Tigers right-hander Matt Manning through 6 2/3 hitless innings yesterday, combining with Jason Foley and Alex Lange to throw the ninth no-hitter in franchise history. While the decision to pull a starter in the midst of a no-hitter is always a controversial one, manager A.J. Hinch shed additional light on the decision following yesterday’s game, noting to reporters (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) that Manning had been struggling through the outing and was evaluated by team trainers between each inning. Manning expanded on Hinch’s comments, noting that he tweaked his side during the second inning. Fortunately, it appears Manning avoided a more serious injury, and the 25-year-old hurler will have the opportunity to rest during the All Star break ahead of the second half.

The Tigers also offered an update regarding left-hander Tyler Alexander today. Alexander was placed on the 60-day injured list with a left lat/shoulder strain last week, a move that seemingly indicated the lefty’s season could be in jeopardy. Following an MRI, the club has more clarity regarding Alexander’s timeline for return. Per McCosky, Alexander will avoid surgery but be shut down for three months. He’ll resume a throwing program in October that should leave him able to return in time for Spring Training in 2024. Alexander had posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 44 innings of work across 25 appearances this season.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press) that second baseman Jorge Polanco is expected to start a rehab assignment in the near future as he recovers from a hamstring strain he suffered early last month. Polanco has been limited to just 30 games this season and has slashed .250/.291/.450 when healthy enough to play. While Polanco has been out, youngster Edouard Julien has filled in at the keystone very well with an impressive .264/.345/.273 slash line in 149 plate appearances this season.
  • White Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi has been dealing with a right wrist issue recently, which Scott Merkin of MLB.com says has been “addressed” according to manager Pedro Grifol. Benintendi hasn’t played since Friday, but is expected to return to action after the All Star break in Atlanta. Benintendi hasn’t been as impactful this season as the White Sox were surely hoping when they signed him to a five-year deal this past offseason, slashing .280/.347/.369 with just one home run in 314 plate appearances, good for a roughly league average wRC+ of 99. The Sox entered play today with a record of just 38-53 this season, but are surely hoping an extended rest for Benintendi ahead of the midsummer classic will allow him to return healthy and more impactful in the second half.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Jimenez, Pasquantino

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The Twins are sending a pair of their players for further examination this weekend, as noted by Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. According to Helfand, second baseman Jorge Polanco went for an MRI yesterday in Toronto after leaving Thursday’s game with hamstring tightness while left-hander Caleb Thielbar is set to return to Minnesota for an MRI of his own this weekend after the club placed him on the injured list with an oblique strain earlier this week.

Both players have been key pieces for the Twins when healthy but have struggled to stay on the field this season. Polanco has been limited to just 30 games, but has slashed .250/.291/.450 with a 105 wRC+ during that time. Thielbar, on the other hand, posted a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings prior to going on the injured list at the beginning of May. The veteran lefty was activated earlier this week but recorded just one out on a major league mound before returning to the injured list with his current oblique issue.

With Thielbar on the shelf, the Twins are relying on Jovani Moran as the sole left-handed reliever in their bullpen, though the 26-year-old has posted a solid 3.86 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 25 2/3 innings of work this season. Meanwhile, Kyle Farmer filled in for Polanco at the keystone yesterday, though if the switch-hitting second baseman requires a stint on the injured list, it seems likely the Twins would turn to Edouard Julien, who has posted a .226/.310/.452 slash line in 72 major league plate appearances while shuttling between the majors and Triple-A this season.

More from around the AL Central…

  • White Sox manager Pedro Grifol told reporters, including Rob Schaefer of the Chicago Sun Times, that slugger Eloy Jimenez would be out for the next few days after he sustained a lower left leg injury during Thursday’s doubleheader against the Yankees. While Grifol notes that the injury is more significant than its initial day-to-day designation indicated, the club is still optimistic that Jimenez will be able to avoid a stint on the injured list, which would be his third this season. Jimenez, who has slashed .257/.315/.434 in 35 games with the White Sox this season, figures to be filled in for at DH by Jake Burger.
  • Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star notes that Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who left yesterday’s game against the Orioles with right shoulder discomfort, is still being evaluated by the team’s medical staff. Any time missed by Pasquantino would be a significant blow to the Royals, as the 25-year-old slugger has been one of the club’s few consistent offensive performers, though his .247/.324/.437 slash line (107 wRC+) hasn’t quite lived up to his phenomenal rookie season, when he posted a wRC+ of 137. Nick Pratto figures to take over at first base if Pasquantino were to miss significant time.

Injury Notes: Cron, Polanco, Alvarado, Bohm

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Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron has been on the injured list since May 15 due to back spasms and the progress has been slow since then. Manager Bud Black told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post on Tuesday that Cron was at least a week away from baseball activities and Cron himself told Saunders today that he is still experiencing pain and doesn’t have a timetable for return (Twitter links).

It’s undoubtedly a frustrating situation both for Cron and the Rockies. Cron’s first season with the club was 2021 and it went so well that the two sides agreed to an extension. He hit 28 home runs that year and walked in 11% of his plate appearances, finishing the year with a batting line of .281/.375/.530 and wRC+ of 126. He was about to become a free agent when the club signed him for another two years and $14.5MM.

Cron had a slightly diminished overall output last year but still hit 29 home runs and provided above-average first base defense. He was off to a slow start this year, but in a small sample of 36 games and it’s possible the back issue was hampering him before he went on the IL. With that contract now a few months from expiring and the Rockies in last in the NL West, he would have been a logical trade candidate this summer, but any trade talks will obviously be affected by the lingering health issues.

Some other health notes from around the league…

  • Twins second baseman Jorge Polanco departed today’s game and the club later announced to reporters, including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, that it was due to left hamstring tightness. Injuries have become a running theme in recent years for both the Twins generally and Polanco specifically. Last year, the club was in first place for much of the season before mounting injuries led to a late-season collapse. Polanco was one of those injured players, as his left knee put him out of action in early September. That issue lingered into the start of this year and he began the season on the injured list. He debuted in late April but then landed on the IL due to a left hamstring strain in late May, and that same left hamstring now seems to be bothering him yet again. He’s hit a solid .250/.291/.450 this year but in just 30 games due to the multiple IL stints. “He’s still, I think, pretty strong in the muscle, but he definitely felt something,” manager Rocco Baldelli tells Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. “We’re going to have to pay attention to it.”
  • The Phillies are set to receive some reinforcements soon, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Left-hander José Alvarado is set to be activated from the injured list tomorrow with infielder Alec Bohm potentially back on Saturday. Alvarado’s been out for almost a month due to inflammation in his left elbow whereas Bohm has been out a week due to a hamstring strain. Alvarado has had elite strikeout stuff in his career but also struggled with walks. He was having a great season here in 2023 prior to the IL stint, striking out a ridiculous 46.2% of opponents without issuing a single walk. He surely won’t be able to maintain a 0.63 ERA all year long but getting him back in the bullpen will be a boost nonetheless. Bohm is hitting .265/.321/.403 this year for a wRC+ of 97, which isn’t elite production but he is still an important part of the club. Their infield depth has taken serious hits this year as Darick Hall has been on the injured list for most of it while Rhys Hoskins could end up missing the entire campaign.

Upcoming Club Option Decisions: AL Central

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Last week, MLBTR took an early look at offseason option decisions facing teams in the National League. We’re continuing our division by division series moving through the Junior Circuit. Next up, the AL Central, where only three of five teams have players with contracts that contain 2024 options.

Previous posts: NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East

Chicago White Sox

Lynn signed a $38MM extension midway through the 2021 season. He was en route to a third-place Cy Young finish at the time but has seen his results go backwards over the past two years. He still managed a solid 3.99 ERA through 121 2/3 innings last season, but this year has been far tougher. The 36-year-old has been tagged for a personal-worst 6.55 ERA in his first 12 starts.

The righty is striking out a quarter of opponents against a manageable 8.6% walk rate. His results on batted balls have been disastrous, though. He’s surrendering a .335 batting average on balls in play and has already given up 15 home runs, tied for third-most in the majors. There’s probably some amount of misfortune there, but Lynn’s a fly-ball pitcher who is giving up a lot of hard contact while pitching in a homer-friendly home park. It’s been a rough couple months and nowhere near the level the Sox would need to consider an option with a net $17MM decision.

Hendriks’ free agent deal contained a unique fourth year in which the option price and the buyout were valued the same. That was mostly an accounting measure designed to front-load the Sox’s luxury tax hit to afford more CBT breathing room in 2024. The only material difference at this point is that buying Hendriks out would allow the Sox to pay him in installments over a 10-year period as opposed to a $15MM salary to be disbursed in during the ’24 season.

There’s practically no question the White Sox are going to exercise this. Hendriks came back from a non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis to return to pitching at the major league level within a matter of months. He’s one of the best relievers in the game when at his peak.

Anderson’s option call is almost as obvious as the Hendriks decision. The 29-year-old is typically one of the game’s best-hitting shortstops, an annual threat to bat over .300 with plus baserunning and typically solid defense. This hasn’t been a standard Anderson season. He’s off to a modest .273/.313/.320 start and is without a home run in 42 games. He missed a few weeks with a left knee sprain, and defensive metrics have soured on his glovework.

Rough couple months aside, a $13MM price point is still strong value for a player of Anderson’s caliber. He hit .318/.347/.473 between 2019-22 and earned a pair of All-Star nods. Next year’s free agent shortstop class is also incredibly thin, meaning there aren’t likely to be many alternatives available. Even if 2019-22 proves to be Anderson’s peak, a one-year, net $13MM decision is still an easy call for the team.

The White Sox signed Clevinger to a $12MM free agent deal over the winter. They were hoping to buy low on a return to form for the righty as he further distanced himself from 2020 Tommy John surgery. It hasn’t really materialized, as Clevinger’s performance in Chicago isn’t far off last year’s work in San Diego.

Through 10 starts, the 32-year-old has a 4.13 ERA in 52 1/3 innings. He’s posted slightly below-average strikeout and grounder rates while walking 10% of opposing hitters. This year’s 9.1% swinging-strike rate is a career low. He’s posting competent fifth starter results, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely he’ll recapture the upper mid-rotation upside of his Cleveland days.

It’s an $8MM decision on the option after accounting for the buyout. That’s a reasonable price point for a back-of-the-rotation arm. The likes of Zach Davies, Johnny Cueto and Kyle Gibson all landed between $5MM and $10MM last offseason, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM pact. Clevinger looks likely to land in that area. Mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides, so odds are Clevinger is headed back to free agency. His next contract just might land around there regardless.

  • Joe Kelly: $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Kelly has had a confounding two seasons in Chicago. Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal coming out of the lockout, he’s posted rough run prevention marks despite excellent peripherals. Kelly carries a 5.43 ERA through 54 2/3 innings since the start of 2022. That’s belied by elite strikeout (32.1%) and ground-ball (62.7%) numbers. Huge walk totals at least partially explained his 2022 struggles, but Kelly has a 4.08 ERA this season despite only walking two of the 70 batters he’s faced.

The right-hander has been an enigmatic player throughout his career. Kelly has always had wipeout stuff and flashed the ability to be an impact high-leverage arm at times. Yet he’s often paired that high-octane arsenal with control that comes and goes. It’s unlikely Kelly sustains anything close to his current 2.9% walk rate over a full season. This is probably headed towards a buyout.

Detroit Tigers

This technically qualifies as an option decision on Cabrera. There’s no suspense about the result, of course. The future Hall of Famer will be bought out as the Tigers finally wrap up a $248MM extension that proved very ill-advised. Cabrera has already declared 2023 to be his likely final season. He’ll leave the sport as one of the greatest hitters ever, but it remains to be seen whether the Tigers will carry him on the roster all year. He’s hitting .202/.283/.245 in 26 games.

Minnesota Twins

Polanco would vest next year’s option with 550 plate appearances if he passed a postseason physical. He’s very unlikely to meet the playing time threshold. Polanco has only 118 trips to the dish more than a third of the way through the season. He’s had a pair of injured list stints already, missing time due both to right knee and left hamstring concerns. He’d need to average more than 4.2 plate appearances per game the rest of the way.

That’ll probably be a moot point, as the Twins seem likely to welcome him back regardless. It’s a $9.5MM decision for a middle infielder who’s one of the team’s better hitters. The switch-hitting Polanco posted a .235/.346/.405 line last season and is at a .268/.305/.482 pace in 27 games this year. Dating back to 2018, Polanco is a .272/.337/.456 hitter in nearly 2500 plate appearances. The Twins would have another club option (this time valued at $12MM) for 2025 if they keep him around, only adding to the appeal.

Kepler’s early-career extension looked like it’d be a coup when he connected on 36 home runs in 2019. The former top prospect seemed to be taking his long-awaited step forward. He hasn’t built on it, though, as he posted roughly league average numbers each season from 2020-22.

Even average production would be a welcome departure from Kepler’s showing thus far in ’23. The left-handed-hitting outfielder is off to a brutal .192/.264/.376 start in 140 plate appearances. The shift ban hasn’t resulted in any kind of improvement in his perennially low ball in play numbers. He’s sporting a career-worst .196 BABIP. His strikeouts are up to 20.7% and he’s walking at a career-worst 7.1% clip.

Kepler is an elite defensive right fielder and has shown better offensive form in prior seasons. A $9MM call isn’t out of the question, but he’ll obviously need to markedly improve upon his current pace. Minnesota has a number of controllable corner outfielders who’ve reached the MLB level (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner among them). Perhaps it’s time for a change of scenery for Kepler, who seems to have stalled out in the Twin Cities.

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