Mariners Expected To Increase Payroll In 2025
The Mariners missed qualifying for the postseason by just one game — a heartbreaking outcome for a club that held a commanding 10-game lead in the American League West back in June. Seattle’s offense floundered all year on the heels of a 2023-24 offseason punctuated by payroll restrictions and a series of salary-driven trades to help balance the lineup while adhering to a budget that was tighter than most anticipated.
Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times have some relatively good news for frustrated M’s fans on that front, reporting that ownership expects payroll to increase in 2025. That’s a breath of fresh air after it became clear almost immediately last offseason that payroll had minimal room to grow. On the other hand, the Times duo adds that a major free agent splash is not expected, thus suggesting that any uptick in payroll could be fairly modest in nature.
Seattle’s roster is overwhelmingly cost controlled, as the bulk of its core is either signed long-term or in the early stages of arbitration. As is the case with all teams fitting that description, there are some natural payroll increases that should be baked into the offseason.
Julio Rodriguez will see his salary jump from $10MM to $18MM under the terms of his long-term extension, for example. Victor Robles only cost the Mariners the prorated league minimum this year after being released by the Nationals, but he’ll earn $3.5MM next year on the two-year extension he signed in August. Dylan Moore, Andres Munoz and Mitch Garver will also see small salary increases on their guaranteed multi-year deals, all of which are slightly backloaded. It’s not all increases, however. Mitch Haniger‘s deal is frontloaded, and he’ll actually see his salary drop from this year’s $20MM mark to the $15.5MM level on a player option he’s sure to exercise.
The bigger area for increase lies within the Mariners’ arbitration class. First-time candidates include Cal Raleigh and George Kirby, both of whom should command significant raises and could go from costing the club a combined $1.5MM to somewhere in the combined $10MM range. Randy Arozarena ($8.1MM in 2024), Logan Gilbert ($4.05MM) and Josh Rojas ($3.1MM) are in line for the most notable raises among the rest of the group, though relievers like Trent Thornton ($1.2MM in ’24), Austin Voth ($1.25MM), JT Chargois ($1.285MM), Gabe Speier (pre-arb) and Tayler Saucedo (pre-arb) could all get boosts as well. Luis Urias is all but a surefire non-tender candidate, and injured utilityman Sam Haggerty isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be tendered.
Assuming the Mariners decline Jorge Polanco‘s $12MM option after a disappointing 2024 season — Divish and Jude unsurprisingly write that they’re likely to do so — and tender contracts to Raleigh, Kirby, Gilbert, Rojas, Thornton, and Saucedo, they’ll land somewhere in the $140MM payroll range before making a single move this offseason (including a slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster). This year’s payroll was finished just shy of $145MM, per RosterResource.
An increased payroll, then, doesn’t necessarily signify the looming addition of any large salaries to be acquired via free agency or trade. That said, word of an increasing payroll also does lend some insight into the direction the team will take. For instance, we’ve already seen the Cardinals plainly state that next year’s payroll will decrease. It became clear almost immediately in the Twins’ offseason last year that payroll would decline from 2023 to 2024. We’re five years removed (to the day) from Rockies ownership kicking off the winter by saying they lacked flexibility for additions of note. With Jerry Dipoto returning as president of baseball operations, there’s always a “never say never” caveat attached to virtually any player’s trade candidacy, as he’s among the game’s most active executives on that market. Still, there’s no reason to anticipate sweeping changes among the team’s excellent young core.
Rather, the focus once again seems likely to be on reinventing an offense that has been continually stagnant despite repeated personnel changes. The M’s would no doubt welcome the opportunity to get out from some or all of their commitments to Haniger and Garver, but that’ll be no small feat. They’ll again be looking to upgrade at third and/or second base after last year’s pickups of Polanco and Urias didn’t yield the intended results. First base is an open question, though the hope is that young Tyler Locklear can solidify the position.
The outfield/designated hitter mix — Arozarena, Rodriguez, Robles and Luke Raley — is largely set, and the Mariners don’t figure to be major players in the starting pitching market. Gilbert and Kirby will be rejoined by Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, comprising a brilliant rotation. Other clubs will surely try to pry some of those young, cost-controlled arms away from the Mariners while dangling promising young hitters in return. However, Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander opted not to deal from that rotation stock last year and would surely be reluctant to do so this coming offseason, given the near-unmatched blend of excellent results and affordable price tags they have throughout the starting staff.
Divish and Jude write that Dipoto spoke of ways to “address our holes that maybe don’t include [trading away] the players that are here” — a potential nod to dealing from a deep farm rather than subtracting from the big league roster. Prospects like Locklear, catcher/outfielder Harry Ford, right-hander Logan Evans, outfielders Jonny Farmelo and Lazaro Montes, and infielders Colt Emerson, Cole Young and Felnin Celesten have all garnered fanfare among the game’s top-100 prospects since midseason. More broadly, the Mariners rank 11th or better on the midseason farm system rankings from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (11th), MLB.com (ninth) and Baseball America (seventh). Dipoto and Hollander will have no shortage of coveted young talent to peddle on the market if the goal is to augment the lineup without heavily subtracting from the current big league roster.
Mariners Select Ryan Bliss
The Mariners announced they’ve selected infielder Ryan Bliss onto the MLB roster. Second baseman Jorge Polanco is headed to the 10-day injured list with a right hamstring strain. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, the M’s recalled Sam Haggerty and placed him on the major league 60-day IL.
It’s the first major league call for the 24-year-old Bliss. The Diamondbacks picked the 5’7″ middle infielder in the second round of the 2021 draft out of Auburn. Bliss rebounded from a tough first full professional season with a breakout 2023 campaign. The right-handed hitter raked at a .358/.414/.594 clip with Arizona’s Double-A affiliate. He earned a call to the Futures Game last summer and was involved in a significant trade not long thereafter. The D-Backs packaged him to Seattle alongside Josh Rojas and Dominic Canzone for closer Paul Sewald.
That wasn’t the most popular trade in the M’s clubhouse at the time, and the second-guessing only got louder when Seattle narrowly missed the playoffs last season. Sewald, meanwhile, stabilized a shaky bullpen in the desert to help Arizona to a surprising World Series berth. The Mariners have gotten good work from both Rojas and Canzone through the first two months of 2024, though. Bliss now joins them on the big league roster.
Bliss finished last season with the M’s top affiliate in Tacoma, hitting .251/.356/.466 over 47 games. He has similar numbers through 50 contests with the Rainiers this year. Bliss owns a .247/.382/.445 batting line through 229 plate appearances. He has walked at a massive 17% clip against a manageable 21.8% strikeout percentage. Bliss has already stolen 28 bases in 34 tries and has reasonable power numbers (seven homers, nine doubles and three triples).
While his slight frame limits his raw power upside, Bliss offers a well-rounded profile that could make him a viable everyday player. He has split his time about evenly between the middle infield spots this year. Prospect evaluators have generally preferred him at second base rather than shortstop because of his fringe arm strength.
That’s where he’ll slot in during his first MLB look. J.P. Crawford has shortstop secure, but Polanco has played sparingly in recent days because of hamstring discomfort. Acquired as part of an overhauled Seattle offense, the longtime Twin has slumped to a .195/.293/.302 showing to begin his Mariner tenure. The M’s plugged Luis Urías into the lineup when Polanco missed a few games two weeks ago. Seattle optioned him last week and will give Bliss a look at second base instead of the more experienced Urías, another offseason pickup who has only hit .152/.264/.316 in 34 games.
The M’s essentially had an open 40-man roster spot after Haggerty suffered a season-ending Achilles tear last week. That occurred in Tacoma, so the outfielder initially went on the minor league injured list. He’ll spend the rest of the season on the MLB IL, where he’ll pick up major league service. Haggerty should narrowly cross the four-year service threshold and would likely be in line for another salary in the realm of this year’s $900K if the Mariners tender him a contract next offseason.
AL Central Notes: Twins, Miller, Valera, Carpenter
The Twins brought back four players from the Mariners in exchange for Jorge Polanco last month, though Minnesota’s first target was right-hander Bryce Miller, Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports. Miller and fellow rookie Bryan Woo were among the most sought-after trade targets of the winter, yet the Mariners weren’t eager to move either pitcher, or anyone from their crop of young and controllable starters. While Polanco fills a big need for Seattle at second base, he is only under team control through the 2025 season, so any kind of Polanco-for-Miller swap would’ve needed to be much different on Minnesota’s end to land Miller’s services.
More from around the AL Central…
- Guardians outfield prospect George Valera will miss “several weeks” after suffering a left hamstring strain, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (X link). Valera missed a big chunk of the 2023 season due to hamstring injuries and a hamate surgery, and the result was an unremarkable .220/.349/.397 slash line over 338 minor league plate appearances, mostly at the Triple-A level. Valera had been a regular on top-100 prospect lists prior to his 2023 disappointment, and his readiness for the start of the Triple-A season could now be in question depending on how much time he misses with his latest injury.
- Kerry Carpenter is also dealing with a strain to his left hamstring, though the Tigers slugger is only slated to miss a few days for now, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Hinch described the situation as “precautionary,” and Carpenter didn’t think he was going to be out for long. Over his first two MLB seasons, Carpenter has hit .273/.334/.474 with 26 homers over 572 PA, and is expected to play a key role as the Tigers’ regular designated hitter in 2024.
MLBTR Podcast: The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The trade sending Jorge Polanco from the Twins to the Mariners (1:10)
- The Brewers sign Rhys Hoskins (8:25)
- The Diamondbacks sign Joc Pederson while the Blue Jays sign Justin Turner (12:05)
- The Tigers sign prospect Colt Keith to an extension (20:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
- Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
- The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks – listen here
- Teoscar Hernández Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Mariners Acquire Jorge Polanco
The Mariners and Twins have lined up on one of the bigger trades of the offseason. Seattle announced the acquisition of second baseman Jorge Polanco for four players: reliever Justin Topa, starter Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen, as well as cash considerations. The Mariners are reportedly including $8MM to cover two-thirds of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary for the upcoming campaign.
Seattle and Minnesota have long seemed an on-paper fit for this kind of move. The M’s didn’t get much out of their second basemen last season. Opening Day starter Kolten Wong was released midway through the year. Landing Josh Rojas in the deadline deal that sent Paul Sewald to the D-Backs helped to an extent, but the position still seemed a weakness entering the offseason.
The M’s further thinned the infield with a trade sending third baseman Eugenio Suárez to Arizona. Seattle brought in non-tender candidate Luis Urías in a deal with the Red Sox to add a contact-oriented hitter to the mix. While Rojas and Urías could split time between second and third base, it’d have been risky to count on both players as regulars.
As a result, Seattle lands one of the top offensive middle infielders on the trade market. The switch-hitting Polanco has posted above-average numbers at the plate in four of the past five seasons. Since the start of the 2019 campaign, he owns a .267/.337/.458 slash in nearly 2400 plate appearances. Knee and hamstring issues bothered him early last season, but he hit at a typically solid level when healthy. Polanco connected on 14 homers over 80 games, running a .255/.335/.454 line through 343 trips to the dish.
That steady production made it an easy call for the Twins to exercise a $10.5MM option on his contract. That’s a below-market price for a quality regular. Yet even with Minnesota triggering the option, there was a general belief that he could find himself on the move this offseason. The Twins have an enviable collection of infield talent that already threatened to bump the 30-year-old Polanco from his natural position.
While Polanco was on the injured list, 24-year-old Edouard Julien mashed his way to the second base job. He hit .263/.381/.459 as a rookie to secure a spot atop Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. The Twins gave Polanco 103 innings at third base once he returned, his first action at the hot corner since 2016. With former first overall pick Royce Lewis emerging as a star down the stretch and into the postseason, that wouldn’t have been an avenue to regular playing time moving forward.
Minnesota could have used Polanco at second base while deploying Julien at designated hitter. That would have limited their flexibility to cycle other players through the DH spot while potentially pigeon-holing one of Minnesota’s more talented young hitters to a bat-only role. Polanco had some experience at shortstop early in his career, but he moved off the position because of defensive shortcomings and clearly wasn’t going to start over Carlos Correa. Minnesota also tendered arbitration contracts to utility infielders Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon. José Miranda remains on hand as an option at the corners, while former #8 overall pick Brooks Lee could make his MLB debut in 2024.
It surely wasn’t an easy call for the front office to move on from one of their longest-tenured players. Polanco had been in the organization since signing as a 16-year-old back in 2009. He reached the big leagues before his 21st birthday and established himself as a regular by 2016. Polanco earned an All-Star nod and down-ballot MVP votes in ’19 and played a key role on four playoff teams.
The amount of infield depth nevertheless made a trade a distinct possibility. Minnesota’s pitching staff took a hit with free agent departures of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle. The Twins had done very little to balance the roster, citing payroll constraints related to their expiring local broadcasting contract. Minnesota was willing to field offers on their infield surplus, although president of baseball operations Derek Falvey made clear they’d seek MLB help as part of that return.
Seattle was open to parting with both a pair of big league arms and at least one of their top minor league talents to get the deal done. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that the M’s plan to use Polanco as their primary second baseman. That could leave the lefty-hitting Rojas and the right-handed swinging Urías to share time at third base. The M’s could keep Polanco at the keystone for two years. They’ll take on this year’s $10.5MM salary and hold a $12MM option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout. If Polanco performs at the level the Mariners envision, they’d likely exercise that option.
The Mariners relinquish some of their pitching depth to make that happen. Topa has less name value of the two MLB players headed to Minneapolis, but he’s the more appealing trade asset. The right-hander was a key part of another excellent Seattle bullpen a year ago. Acquired from the Brewers for a minor league pitcher in what seemed an insignificant trade last winter, the righty put together a career year.
Topa, who had 17 career MLB appearances going into the season, pitched 75 times for the M’s a year ago. He worked to a 2.61 ERA across 69 innings. Topa’s 21.9% strikeout rate was a little below average, but he did an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground. Working with a 95 MPH sinker and a pair of breaking pitches in his cutter and slider, he induced worm-burners at a very strong 56.7% clip. His production increasingly earned the trust of manager Scott Servais. By year’s end, he’d picked up 23 holds and a trio of saves.
If Topa can maintain that kind of production, he’d be an asset for the Minnesota relief corps. There’s a fair bit of risk with the 6’4″ hurler. Topa will turn 33 before Opening Day and has a lengthy injury history. He had undergone two Tommy John procedures and a flexor tendon surgery during his time in Milwaukee, a major reason he hadn’t logged extended MLB action until last year.
He accrued a decent chunk of service time while on the injured list and surpassed the three-year mark a year ago. Seattle and Topa agreed to a $1.25MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’ll go through that process twice more and won’t reach free agency until after the 2026 campaign. Topa still has a pair of minor league options, so the Twins could send him to Triple-A if he struggles unexpectedly.
DeSclafani spent less than a month as a member of the Mariners. Seattle acquired the righty alongside Mitch Haniger in the trade sending Robbie Ray to the Giants just after the New Year. His inclusion in both trades is motivated in large part by finances.
The 33-year-old (34 in April) is set to make $12MM in the final season of a three-year free agent deal he inked with San Francisco. The Giants are paying half of that, sending $6MM to Seattle as part of the Ray trade. Seattle is moving that $6MM to Minnesota and including an additional $2MM. The Twins are responsible for the final $4MM on the deal.
It has been a tough couple years for DeScalfani, who was limited to five starts in 2022 before undergoing season-ending ankle surgery. Injures were again an issue last year. This time, a flexor strain in his throwing elbow ended his season in late July.
Before the arm injury, he had pitched 19 times and logged 99 2/3 innings. The nine-year veteran worked to a 4.88 ERA with a below-average 18.9% strikeout percentage. He walked fewer than 5% of opponents but he’s lost a few points off his strikeout and ground-ball numbers since his excellent 2021 campaign, when he posted a 3.17 ERA over 31 starts.
The Mariners were set to use DeSclafani in a long relief capacity. Minnesota could afford him a chance to battle for the #5 spot in the season-opening rotation. The Twins have Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack in the top four spots. DeSclafani and right-hander Louie Varland are the top options for the final rotation job. Whichever of those two starts the season in long relief could move into the rotation as injuries necessitate.
Gonzalez, who turned 20 this month, isn’t going to contribute at the MLB level anytime soon. He’s nevertheless arguably the headliner of the deal from Minnesota’s perspective. The right-handed hitting outfielder signed with Seattle for $1.3MM out of Venezuela during the 2021-22 international period. Baseball America recently ranked him the #5 prospect in the M’s system, while MLB Pipeline has him as the game’s #79 overall minor league talent.
Evaluators praise Gonzalez’s natural bat-to-ball skills. Those were on display in Low-A, where he hit .348/.403/.530 with a modest 13.7% strikeout rate in 335 plate appearances last year. However, Baseball America notes that Gonzalez has an extremely aggressive offensive approach that was exposed when he was promoted to High-A midseason. He struggled to a .215/.290/.387 slash while fanning at a 21.5% clip in 200 plate appearances at that level. Gonzalez walked in fewer than 7% of his plate appearances at both stops. As a below-average athlete who projects as a corner outfielder, he’ll need to improve his plate discipline to reach his potential.
Bowen, 22, was a 13th-round draftee in the 2022 draft. A product of UNC-Pembroke, he worked to a 3.88 ERA through 55 2/3 innings at Low-A in his first pro season. The 6’3″ right-hander ranked as Seattle’s #25 prospect at BA. The outlet credits him with low-mid 90s velocity and a potential above-average breaking pitch. Bowen draws praise for his athleticism but presently has below-average control, evidenced by a 10.9% walk rate in the minors.
Taking on Polanco’s contract will push Seattle’s payroll commitments into the $135MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource, depending on how much of the DeSclafani contract they’re retaining. They opened last season around $137MM. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated early in the winter that Seattle expected to top last season’s spending and they’re now right near that mark. Minnesota’s payroll estimate drops to roughly $119MM, leaving them some flexibility to supplement the roster over the next few weeks.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the sides were finalizing a trade sending Polanco to Seattle. Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed an agreement was in place. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Twins were acquiring four players, two of whom were big leaguers. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Topa’s inclusion, while Dan Hayes of the Athletic had DeSclafani’s and Gonzalez’s involvement. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported the Twins were receiving Bowen and the presence of cash considerations, which Rosenthal specified were coming from Seattle’s end. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported the Mariners were paying upwards of $6MM in cash considerations. Hayes and Rosenthal specified the M’s were including $8MM in cash considerations.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Falvey: Twins Plan To Reallocate Money Saved In Polanco Trade
The Twins pulled off a significant trade this evening, sending second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Mariners for a four-player return. While Minnesota brought back a pair of MLB players — Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani — in the deal, that’s coming at a fairly modest financial cost.
DeSclafani is due $12MM for the upcoming season. The Giants agreed to pay $6MM in the trade that initially sent the veteran righty to Seattle. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that the M’s are sending that $6MM plus an unspecified portion of the $6MM they’d owed to DeSclafani themselves. Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic report that Seattle is sending an additional $2MM, bringing the cash considerations to $8MM in total.
Polanco is set to receive $10.5MM, while Topa is making $1.25MM. There’s a $9.25MM gap between those two salaries, and the Twins are taking on $4MM owed to DeSclafani. The deal saves Minnesota $5.25MM in payroll room.
Falvey told reporters Minnesota expects to reallocate those savings into the roster (relayed by Dan Hayes of the Athletic). He suggested the team was likely to look for help on the position player side after acquiring a reliever and a rotation option in the Polanco trade (via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com).
The front office leader didn’t specify any players or positions of interest. At the beginning of the offseason, Falvey suggested the club would evaluate the first base market. They haven’t made any additions there thus far and are presently set to count on Alex Kirilloff, who has had wrist and shoulder surgeries in his career.
Speculatively speaking, a right-handed hitting outfielder would also make sense. Minnesota has a corner outfield group consisting of left-handed bats like Max Kepler, Matt Wallner and Nick Gordon. Gold Glover Byron Buxton is optimistic about his chance of moving back to center field after knee injuries limited him to DH in 2023. The Twins could still look for a center field option to back up Buxton given his injury history. Last year’s primary center fielder, Michael A. Taylor, remains unsigned.
In November, Hayes reported that Minnesota expected to open the season with a player payroll in the $125-140MM range. Roster Resource projected their spending around $124MM before tonight’s trade. Moving Polanco reduces those commitments to roughly $119MM.
Note: This post initially indicated that Seattle was covering $6MM of DeSclafani’s salary in addition to the $6MM included by San Francisco. The specific amount being covered by the Mariners beyond the initial $6MM from the Giants is $2MM. MLBTR apologizes for the error.
Latest On Twins’ Trade Discussions
The Twins have been candid all throughout the offseason about their plans to reduce player payroll this winter, and they’ve largely been successful in that endeavor. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $124MM in 2024, which would represent a $35MM haircut relative to last year’s payroll. Given that reality, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the club does not plan on engaging in a “salary-dump” trade this winter.
That’s surely heartening news for Twins fans, given rumors that swirled earlier this offseason indicating that the likes of second baseman Jorge Polanco, outfielder Max Kepler, and infielder Kyle Farmer were available in trade this winter. While Hayes left open the possibility of a trade coming together, he made clear that the club doesn’t plan on dealing those players in order to clear salary or add prospects. Instead, the Twins are angling to bring back major league talent in any deal as they look to build on a 2023 campaign that saw the club win its first playoff series in two decades.
Hayes also indicates that the club would prefer to move Polanco and/or Farmer rather than Kepler, adding that the “expectation” entering the offseason was that Minnesota would move two infielders from their big-league roster to lessen the club’s positional logjam. Setting aside Polanco and Farmer, the club employees Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Edouard Julien as likely regulars with the likes of Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro and top prospect Brooks Lee all likely to spend at least some time on the infield dirt as well next season. The same goes for Alex Kirilloff, who figures to factor heavily into the club’s first base mix but has plenty of experience in the outfield as well. By contrast, the club’s outfield mix is much less crowded, with Kepler, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach making up the club’s primary options though Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon, and Castro all also have experience on the grass as well.
Despite the club’s apparent willingness to deal from its surplus, Hayes suggests that a deal doesn’t appear likely to come together anytime soon. While he notes that the club has identified potential trade partners and begun talks with them, many of those teams are still waiting to see how the rest of free agency plays out. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the number of positional free agents, ranging from Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman to Justin Turner and Whit Merrifield, are still available at this point in the winter.
If the club hopes to add big league talent in exchange for parting with an established veteran like Polanco or Farmer, it’s not hard to see what areas of the roster they could target. The departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda have left the club unusually thin in the starting rotation. While a quintet of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland would be a viable group to carry into Opening Day, there’s plenty of room for improvement in that group and the club lacks much in the way of depth. Should any of the team’s starting five suffer an injury early in the season, the Twins currently figure to lean on an unproven arm like Brent Headrick or Simeon Woods-Richardson to take the ball every fifth day.
MLBTR took a look at possible trade partners for the Twins regarding Polanco last month, and many of those same teams could also benefit from the addition of Farmer as well. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants, and Marlins were among the clubs mentioned who could stand to add another bat to their infield mix while also having the sort of MLB-ready pitching depth that the Twins could be interested in from which to deal. Speculatively speaking, a team like the Dodgers or Angels could also benefit from bolstering their infield depth given the uncertain shortstop situation in L.A. and the many injuries Anaheim’s infielders suffered last season. Both clubs also have controllable pitching options who could theoretically be moved this winter, such as Gavin Stone and Chase Silseth.
Looking For A Match In A Jorge Polanco Trade
The Twins saw a variety of youngsters take significant steps forward in 2023 en route to their first victory in a postseason series since 2002, and perhaps none of those were more impactful than the breakouts of Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien. Long a top prospect whose career had been stalled by injuries, Lewis burst onto the scene in 2023 and slashed an incredible .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and six stolen bases in just 239 trips to the plate last season while playing excellent defense at third base. Julien, by contrast, lacked Lewis’s prospect pedigree but put together perhaps an even more impressive rookie campaign. The 24-year-old slashed .263/.381/.459 in 408 trips to the plate as the club’s primary second baseman in 2023, with an incredible 15.7% walk rate that only Aaron Judge, Cavan Biggio, Joc Pederson, and Juan Soto managed to eclipse among rookie hitters (min. 400 PA) in the 21st century.
The incredible performances from both Lewis and Julien leave the Twins set up for success around in the infield for years to come, particularly if Carlos Correa manages to regain his All Star form and top prospect Brooks Lee is able to find similar success when he reaches the big leagues, which could happen as soon as 2024. This excess of infield talent has left longtime second baseman Jorge Polanco to face a great deal of uncertainty this offseason. The Twins haven’t been shy about their plans to cut payroll this offseason, and with each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle having signed elsewhere this offseason after departing for free agency last month, the club is facing uncertanity in the rotation.
As such, dealing away the club’s longest-tenured player could allow Minnesota to leverage an area of considerable depth to fill out its pitching staff, while also saving $10.5MM in salary next season that could potentially be used to acquire even more pitching. That logic convinced MLBTR readers that Polanco should be dealt according to a poll back in October, where more than 56% voted in favor of the Twins dealing Polanco.
Given the clear incentives for the Twins to at least consider a Polanco trade, it’s hardly a surprise that the 30-year-old has garnered trade interest as recently as earlier this month from rival clubs. Even as the longtime infielder appears to be on the verge of getting squeezed out of the Twins’ infield mix, Polanco is still a quality everyday player. While he was limited to just 80 games this past season due to injuries, the switch-hitter nonetheless slashed a solid .255/.335/.454 (118 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and DH in 2023. That line is consistent with the numbers Polanco has posted throughout his time as an everyday player in the majors. Since he broke out as an above-average regular back in 2019, the infielder has slashed .267/.337/.458 with a wRC+ of 117. That’s good for ninth among qualified second baseman during that time span, just ahead of household names such as Gleyber Torres and Ozzie Albies.
While Polanco doesn’t generate much value with his glove, typically earning below-average marks by Outs Above Average and roughly average marks by Defensive Runs Saved, he makes up for it with his consistent, above-average offense and would be a clear upgrade for virtually any team in need of infield help ahead of the 2024 season. Further adding to Polanco’s value is his relatively affordable contract situation. As previously mentioned, Polanco is due just $10.5MM in 2024, an amount the majority of buying clubs should be able to stomach without much issue. What’s more, Polanco is not a pure rental thanks to a $12MM club option for 2024 that carries a fairly modest buyout of $750K.
Taken together, Polanco’s switch-hitting bat, offensive consistency, and affordable team control are surely an enticing package to plenty of clubs, even in spite of Polanco’s recent injury history and lackluster defense. With that said, which teams are the best fits for his services? The Angels, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Red Sox, and Yankees all appear more or less set around the infield, while the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, and White Sox all appear unlikely to spend significant money and prospect capital on a short-term infield solution. That still leaves nine teams as viable fits for Polanco’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…
Best Fits:
- Blue Jays: The Jays have a clear need around the infield after losing Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman to free agency, even after adding Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The club also recently lost their primary source of left-handed offense due to the departure of Brandon Belt. Polanco could help alleviate both of those issues as a switch-hitter who could add some pop to the lineup from the left side while slotting in as the club’s everyday second baseman, with the likes of Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Santiago Espinal left to compete for the third base job alongside Kiner-Falefa. Meanwhile, mercurial right-hander Alek Manoah could surely entice the Twins as a potential return given his significant upside and the ability of depth starter Louie Varland to step into the rotation should Manoah struggle to regain the form he showed in 2022, when he was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award.
- Cubs: Few teams got worse production from their third base corps in 2023 than the Cubs, who needed to plug the hole by trading for Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline last summer. With Candelario now suiting up for Cincinnati, the Cubs are once again left with a hole at third base and a dearth of left-handed pop in their lineup. The addition of Polanco could address both of those concerns; while the veteran infielder has primarily played second base during his career, he looked decent at the position when covering for Royce Lewis this past season and the Cubs had little issue converting Nick Madrigal from the keystone to the hot corner last spring. In exchange for Polanco’s services, the Cubs could dangle a young pitching prospect such as Hayden Wesneski or Ben Brown, both of whom have found themselves in the rumor mill this offseason.
- Mariners: After shipping Eugenio Suarez to Arizona earlier in the winter, the Mariners have plenty of room to improve upon their infield mix. Josh Rojas and Luis Urias are currently slated for everyday roles at second and third base, though the pair are likely better served platooning with each other. That opens the door for another infield addition, and Polanco could fit the bill as an everyday player at either position. While the switch-hitter is unlikely to net the Twins a young starter like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller in trade (at least by himself), it’s possible a deal could come together centered around a less proven arm like Emerson Hancock.
Next Tier Down:
- Brewers: The Brewers have as significant of needs around the infield as any team, with little certainty anywhere outside of Willy Adames. Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio appear to be the club’s current best options at second and third base respectively, but adding Polanco would give a significant boost to the club’s offense while taking pressure off the aforementioned pair of youngsters. While Milwaukee is as good of a fit as any club for Polanco’s services, the recent departures of Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser leave the Brewers seemingly unlikely to further weaken their rotation depth by trading a starter to Minnesota. Meanwhile, the club’s many outfielders likely hold little appeal for the Twins, who have a deep outfield mix of their own already.
- Giants: The Giants, at least on paper, have a fairly solid infield mix that includes J.D. Davis, Thairo Estrada, and Wilmer Flores. With that being said, the club has been connected to free agency’s top infielder in Matt Chapman this winter, and Polanco could be a reasonable fallback option for San Francisco to improve their offensive production on the infield dirt should they fail to land Chapman. The club also has a handful of interesting young pitchers like Tristan Beck who they could consider dealing, though the club is seemingly hoping to land a player with more star power than Polanco provides this winter.
- Marlins: The Marlins are seemingly perpetually interested in acquiring hitting reinforcements by leveraging their deep group of pitchers, and it appears this offseason is no different as the likes of Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Trevor Rogers have all found their names in the rumor mill. What’s more, the sides got together on just this sort of deal last offseason, when the Twins landed Pablo Lopez in exchange for Luis Arraez. Polanco would be something of a tricky positional fit for the Miami, though they could conceivably move Josh Bell to DH and shift Arraez back to first, opening up second base for Polanco.
Longer Shots:
- Mets: The Mets appeared to be content with their infield mix as recently as earlier this month, when it appeared that Joey Wendle, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos would compete for playing time at third base while Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso remained at their usual positions. That all changed when Mauricio suffered a torn ACL while playing winter ball, throwing the club’s infield plans into chaos. Even so, the Mets and Twins are something of an imperfect fit as trade partners. While Polanco’s two years of team control seemingly fits New York’s current strategy of making short-term additions that won’t encumber the team in the long haul, Polanco doesn’t offer the quality glove Mauricio did and his switch-hitting bat is likely less attractive given the number of lefty-swinging infielders the Mets already have at their disposal.
- Pirates: The Pirates evidently are looking to add a second baseman to their infield mix given their reported interest in a reunion with Adam Frazier, and the addition of Polanco would likely move the needle far more for the fourth-place club in 2024 should they hope to contend for the NL Central this season. The addition of Polanco would offer some veteran consistency to a young offense that dealt with extreme peaks and valleys throughout the 2023 campaign, and his 118 wRC+ last year would’ve been the best on Pittsburgh’s offense last year. With that being said, the Pirates still have a long way to go to catch up to the rest of the NL Central in 2024, and their rotation has even more question marks than Minnesota’s, rendering them unlikely to deal away a rotation piece like the Twins figure to seek.
- Royals: Trades within a division are exceptionally rare, particularly when both clubs are seemingly hoping to contend in the coming season. With that being said, there’s at least an on-paper fit between the Royals and Twins for a Polanco deal. Kansas City needs offense even after adding Hunter Renfroe in free agency earlier this month, and Polanco would represent a massive upgrade over Michael Massey at the keystone. Meanwhile, the Royals could offer a package centered around a young arm like Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh who may be squeezed out of the club’s rotation mix by the recent additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City and Minnesota got together on a notable trade as recently as last offseason, when the Royals sent Michael A. Taylor to the Twins in exchange for a pair of relief prospects.
Twins Getting Trade Interest In Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
Infielder Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” sources tell Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. With Polanco in particular, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds that the former All-Star’s market has “increased” within the last week.
It doesn’t appear as though a deal might be particularly close for either player, as the Twins are one of several teams whose winter business has been somewhat stalled by the logjam at the top of the free agent market. As Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey told Nightengale and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, “what we continue to hear on the trade front…is ‘Hey, we have interest in some of your players. We’d like to talk about these guys, but we have to wait on a few other things to happen,’ or free agent discussions to come to pass. When that happens, you’re constantly waiting to some degree.”
Trade winds have swirled around Polanco and Kepler even before the offseason began, and that speculation even before Favley said last month that the Twins were going to reduce their payroll for 2024. It is worth noting that the Twins might’ve been able to make those cuts simply by not retaining Polanco or Kepler for the next season, though the team opted to exercise club options on both players (Polanco for $10.5MM, Kepler for $10MM) rather than just lose them for nothing.
With some level of trade interest brewing, it would appear as through Minnesota’s front office made the right decision. Obviously it remains to be seen if either player will be dealt at all, or what a return might be for either solid-but-unspectacular veteran. Kepler also has only one year of control remaining, while Polanco can be controlled through the 2025 season via another club option ($12MM with a $750K buyout).
A case can be made that the Twins could or retain both Polanco and Kepler given how the team has battled injuries (including some missed time for these two themselves) over the last two seasons, yet Minnesota does appear to have something of a surplus around the diamond. With Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien emerging last season, third base and second base might now be covered, leaving Polanco without an obvious starting position since Carlos Correa naturally has Polanco’s old shortstop spot covered. Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach are all left-handed hitting outfield options, so Kepler might be a bit of an expendable piece.
Perhaps ideally, Minnesota would prefer to trade utilityman Kyle Farmer (and his $6.6MM projected arbitration salary) rather than Polanco or Kepler. That said, rival teams would likewise be more willing to give up a notable return to land an everyday type of commodity rather than Farmer, who is maybe best suited for a part-time role. Since center field, first base, and the rotation are all target areas for the Twins this winter, they might have no choice but to move at least one of Polanco and Kepler to thread of needle of upgrading the roster while also reducing payroll at the same time.
Twins Could Pursue First Base Addition
The Twins snapped the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports this year when they swept the Blue Jays out of the Wild Card round before falling 3-1 in an ALDS loss to the Astros. They’ll head into the offseason facing the potential loss of Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, but there are also other areas of need on the roster. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated to Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his club could also be in the market for an addition to their first base mix.
“With [Alex Kirilloff] and with potential external additions, it’ll probably be an area we do spend some time this offseason from free agent or trade perspective,” Falvey said of his team’s first base outlook.
Kirilloff, a longtime top prospect whose career trajectory has been altered by persistent wrist and shoulder injuries, served as the Twins’ primary first baseman when healthy in 2023. Free agents Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo also logged significant time at first base. There’s yet to be any indication the Twins plan to re-sign either. Gallo, in particular, seems likely to depart.
The 26-year-old Kirilloff turned in a very sound .270/.348/.445 batting line with 11 home runs in 319 plate appearances, but he also had multiple shoulder-related IL stints before ultimately undergoing surgery at season’s end. That procedure, Nightengale writes, was actually less invasive than the Twins originally anticipated, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.
That said, it’s hard to bank on Kirilloff assuming the position on a full-time basis next year. The Twins thought highly enough of the former first-round pick to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason, and he’s now spent parts of three seasons on the MLB roster. However, this past campaign’s 88 games and 319 plate appearances are both career-highs. Kirilloff’s 2021 and 2022 seasons ended with wrist surgery.
There’s little doubting Kirilloff’s raw abilities. He was the 15th overall draft pick in 2016 and hit a combined .324/.381/.525 in the minors — including a gaudy .366/.458/.673 in 53 Triple-A games. Prior to his MLB debut, he peaked as the game’s No. 15 overall prospect at Baseball America and climbed as high as ninth on MLB.com’s top 100 rankings. Even with the past wrist issues and ongoing shoulder troubles in ’23, he was a well above-average hitter. But his ability to remain on the field and the extent to which he can recover from a third notable surgery in three years are both open questions.
The Twins have alternatives at the position. Rookie infielder Edouard Julien, a top-100 prospect in his own right, hit the big league scene with a .263/.381/.459 batting line and 16 home runs as a rookie in 408 plate appearances this season. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there are questions about his ability to handle that spot long term and Julien already logged some time at first base. With Jorge Polanco entrenched at second base, slotting Julien in at first base and designated hitter could get his bat into the lineup more regularly. Of course, the Twins’ wealth of young infield talent makes Polanco an obvious trade candidate, and if he’s moved, that’d clear a spot for Julien at second base and Kirilloff and/or an external acquisition at first base.
Also in the mix is Jose Miranda — yet another former top prospect who broke through with a terrific rookie showing in 2022 before regressing in 2023 and eventually requiring a shoulder surgery of his own. Miranda batted .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs in 125 games as a rookie in ’22 but limped to a .211/.263/.303 line in 40 big league games this past season. His work in Triple-A wasn’t any better, and he wound up being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement that resulted in September surgery. Still just 25 years of age, a healthy Miranda could work his way back into the mix as well.
Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t short on in-house options. The looming possibility of a Polanco trade (thus opening second base for Julien), uncertainty surrounding the health/durability of Kirilloff and Miranda, and the hopeful opening of some at-bats at the designated hitter position could all pave the way for Minnesota to bring in a bat, though. Byron Buxton spent the bulk of the 2023 season as a designated hitter due to lingering complications from last winter’s knee surgery, but the Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to center field in 2024, per Falvey. That’d be a boon both offensively and defensively, if he’s able to do so.
The offseason market at first base isn’t exactly deep in terms of star power, though Rhys Hoskins stands as a prominent name on the open market (assuming his own recovery from a torn ACL progresses as expected). Brandon Belt is also available, though he’s a strict platoon option and bats from the same side of the plate as the left-handed Kirilloff. Buy-low options include Garrett Cooper and old friend C.J. Cron. Pete Alonso‘s name has been kicked around the trade market, but Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he does not anticipate trading the star slugger (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic).
The Twins are expected to reduce payroll this coming season, albeit not drastically so. Revenue losses stemming from the collapse of their television deal under Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy create uncertainty in Minnesota, where Roster Resource currently projects them for a $125MM payroll. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the team’s payroll would likely settle between $125-140MM. Trading Polanco ($10.5MM), Max Kepler ($10MM) and/or Christian Vazquez ($10MM) would create some breathing room, as could a trade or non-tender of utility infielder Kyle Farmer (projected $6.6MM arbitration salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).