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Latest On Twins’ Trade Discussions

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The Twins have been candid all throughout the offseason about their plans to reduce player payroll this winter, and they’ve largely been successful in that endeavor. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $124MM in 2024, which would represent a $35MM haircut relative to last year’s payroll. Given that reality, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the club does not plan on engaging in a “salary-dump” trade this winter.

That’s surely heartening news for Twins fans, given rumors that swirled earlier this offseason indicating that the likes of second baseman Jorge Polanco, outfielder Max Kepler, and infielder Kyle Farmer were available in trade this winter. While Hayes left open the possibility of a trade coming together, he made clear that the club doesn’t plan on dealing those players in order to clear salary or add prospects. Instead, the Twins are angling to bring back major league talent in any deal as they look to build on a 2023 campaign that saw the club win its first playoff series in two decades.

Hayes also indicates that the club would prefer to move Polanco and/or Farmer rather than Kepler, adding that the “expectation” entering the offseason was that Minnesota would move two infielders from their big-league roster to lessen the club’s positional logjam. Setting aside Polanco and Farmer, the club employees Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Edouard Julien as likely regulars with the likes of Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro and top prospect Brooks Lee all likely to spend at least some time on the infield dirt as well next season. The same goes for Alex Kirilloff, who figures to factor heavily into the club’s first base mix but has plenty of experience in the outfield as well. By contrast, the club’s outfield mix is much less crowded, with Kepler, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach making up the club’s primary options though Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon, and Castro all also have experience on the grass as well.

Despite the club’s apparent willingness to deal from its surplus, Hayes suggests that a deal doesn’t appear likely to come together anytime soon. While he notes that the club has identified potential trade partners and begun talks with them, many of those teams are still waiting to see how the rest of free agency plays out. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the number of positional free agents, ranging from Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman to Justin Turner and Whit Merrifield, are still available at this point in the winter.

If the club hopes to add big league talent in exchange for parting with an established veteran like Polanco or Farmer, it’s not hard to see what areas of the roster they could target. The departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda have left the club unusually thin in the starting rotation. While a quintet of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland would be a viable group to carry into Opening Day, there’s plenty of room for improvement in that group and the club lacks much in the way of depth. Should any of the team’s starting five suffer an injury early in the season, the Twins currently figure to lean on an unproven arm like Brent Headrick or Simeon Woods-Richardson to take the ball every fifth day.

MLBTR took a look at possible trade partners for the Twins regarding Polanco last month, and many of those same teams could also benefit from the addition of Farmer as well. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants, and Marlins were among the clubs mentioned who could stand to add another bat to their infield mix while also having the sort of MLB-ready pitching depth that the Twins could be interested in from which to deal. Speculatively speaking, a team like the Dodgers or Angels could also benefit from bolstering their infield depth given the uncertain shortstop situation in L.A. and the many injuries Anaheim’s infielders suffered last season. Both clubs also have controllable pitching options who could theoretically be moved this winter, such as Gavin Stone and Chase Silseth.

Looking For A Match In A Jorge Polanco Trade

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The Twins saw a variety of youngsters take significant steps forward in 2023 en route to their first victory in a postseason series since 2002, and perhaps none of those were more impactful than the breakouts of Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien. Long a top prospect whose career had been stalled by injuries, Lewis burst onto the scene in 2023 and slashed an incredible .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and six stolen bases in just 239 trips to the plate last season while playing excellent defense at third base. Julien, by contrast, lacked Lewis’s prospect pedigree but put together perhaps an even more impressive rookie campaign. The 24-year-old slashed .263/.381/.459 in 408 trips to the plate as the club’s primary second baseman in 2023, with an incredible 15.7% walk rate that only Aaron Judge, Cavan Biggio, Joc Pederson, and Juan Soto managed to eclipse among rookie hitters (min. 400 PA) in the 21st century.

The incredible performances from both Lewis and Julien leave the Twins set up for success around in the infield for years to come, particularly if Carlos Correa manages to regain his All Star form and top prospect Brooks Lee is able to find similar success when he reaches the big leagues, which could happen as soon as 2024. This excess of infield talent has left longtime second baseman Jorge Polanco to face a great deal of uncertainty this offseason. The Twins haven’t been shy about their plans to cut payroll this offseason, and with each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle having signed elsewhere this offseason after departing for free agency last month, the club is facing uncertanity in the rotation.

As such, dealing away the club’s longest-tenured player could allow Minnesota to leverage an area of considerable depth to fill out its pitching staff, while also saving $10.5MM in salary next season that could potentially be used to acquire even more pitching. That logic convinced MLBTR readers that Polanco should be dealt according to a poll back in October, where more than 56% voted in favor of the Twins dealing Polanco.

Given the clear incentives for the Twins to at least consider a Polanco trade, it’s hardly a surprise that the 30-year-old has garnered trade interest as recently as earlier this month from rival clubs. Even as the longtime infielder appears to be on the verge of getting squeezed out of the Twins’ infield mix, Polanco is still a quality everyday player. While he was limited to just 80 games this past season due to injuries, the switch-hitter nonetheless slashed a solid .255/.335/.454 (118 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and DH in 2023.  That line is consistent with the numbers Polanco has posted throughout his time as an everyday player in the majors. Since he broke out as an above-average regular back in 2019, the infielder has slashed .267/.337/.458 with a wRC+ of 117. That’s good for ninth among qualified second baseman during that time span, just ahead of household names such as Gleyber Torres and Ozzie Albies.

While Polanco doesn’t generate much value with his glove, typically earning below-average marks by Outs Above Average and roughly average marks by Defensive Runs Saved, he makes up for it with his consistent, above-average offense and would be a clear upgrade for virtually any team in need of infield help ahead of the 2024 season. Further adding to Polanco’s value is his relatively affordable contract situation. As previously mentioned, Polanco is due just $10.5MM in 2024, an amount the majority of buying clubs should be able to stomach without much issue. What’s more, Polanco is not a pure rental thanks to a $12MM club option for 2024 that carries a fairly modest buyout of $750K.

Taken together, Polanco’s switch-hitting bat, offensive consistency, and affordable team control are surely an enticing package to plenty of clubs, even in spite of Polanco’s recent injury history and lackluster defense. With that said, which teams are the best fits for his services? The Angels, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Red Sox, and Yankees all appear more or less set around the infield, while the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, and White Sox all appear unlikely to spend significant money and prospect capital on a short-term infield solution. That still leaves nine teams as viable fits for Polanco’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Blue Jays: The Jays have a clear need around the infield after losing Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman to free agency, even after adding Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The club also recently lost their primary source of left-handed offense due to the departure of Brandon Belt. Polanco could help alleviate both of those issues as a switch-hitter who could add some pop to the lineup from the left side while slotting in as the club’s everyday second baseman, with the likes of Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Santiago Espinal left to compete for the third base job alongside Kiner-Falefa. Meanwhile, mercurial right-hander Alek Manoah could surely entice the Twins as a potential return given his significant upside and the ability of depth starter Louie Varland to step into the rotation should Manoah struggle to regain the form he showed in 2022, when he was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award.
  • Cubs: Few teams got worse production from their third base corps in 2023 than the Cubs, who needed to plug the hole by trading for Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline last summer. With Candelario now suiting up for Cincinnati, the Cubs are once again left with a hole at third base and a dearth of left-handed pop in their lineup. The addition of Polanco could address both of those concerns; while the veteran infielder has primarily played second base during his career, he looked decent at the position when covering for Royce Lewis this past season and the Cubs had little issue converting Nick Madrigal from the keystone to the hot corner last spring. In exchange for Polanco’s services, the Cubs could dangle a young pitching prospect such as Hayden Wesneski or Ben Brown, both of whom have found themselves in the rumor mill this offseason.
  • Mariners: After shipping Eugenio Suarez to Arizona earlier in the winter, the Mariners have plenty of room to improve upon their infield mix. Josh Rojas and Luis Urias are currently slated for everyday roles at second and third base, though the pair are likely better served platooning with each other. That opens the door for another infield addition, and Polanco could fit the bill as an everyday player at either position. While the switch-hitter is unlikely to net the Twins a young starter like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller in trade (at least by himself), it’s possible a deal could come together centered around a less proven arm like Emerson Hancock.

Next Tier Down:

  • Brewers: The Brewers have as significant of needs around the infield as any team, with little certainty anywhere outside of Willy Adames. Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio appear to be the club’s current best options at second and third base respectively, but adding Polanco would give a significant boost to the club’s offense while taking pressure off the aforementioned pair of youngsters. While Milwaukee is as good of a fit as any club for Polanco’s services, the recent departures of Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser leave the Brewers seemingly unlikely to further weaken their rotation depth by trading a starter to Minnesota. Meanwhile, the club’s many outfielders likely hold little appeal for the Twins, who have a deep outfield mix of their own already.
  • Giants: The Giants, at least on paper, have a fairly solid infield mix that includes J.D. Davis, Thairo Estrada, and Wilmer Flores. With that being said, the club has been connected to free agency’s top infielder in Matt Chapman this winter, and Polanco could be a reasonable fallback option for San Francisco to improve their offensive production on the infield dirt should they fail to land Chapman. The club also has a handful of interesting young pitchers like Tristan Beck who they could consider dealing, though the club is seemingly hoping to land a player with more star power than Polanco provides this winter.
  • Marlins: The Marlins are seemingly perpetually interested in acquiring hitting reinforcements by leveraging their deep group of pitchers, and it appears this offseason is no different as the likes of Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Trevor Rogers have all found their names in the rumor mill. What’s more, the sides got together on just this sort of deal last offseason, when the Twins landed Pablo Lopez in exchange for Luis Arraez. Polanco would be something of a tricky positional fit for the Miami, though they could conceivably move Josh Bell to DH and shift Arraez back to first, opening up second base for Polanco.

Longer Shots:

  • Mets: The Mets appeared to be content with their infield mix as recently as earlier this month, when it appeared that Joey Wendle, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos would compete for playing time at third base while Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso remained at their usual positions. That all changed when Mauricio suffered a torn ACL while playing winter ball, throwing the club’s infield plans into chaos. Even so, the Mets and Twins are something of an imperfect fit as trade partners. While Polanco’s two years of team control seemingly fits New York’s current strategy of making short-term additions that won’t encumber the team in the long haul, Polanco doesn’t offer the quality glove Mauricio did and his switch-hitting bat is likely less attractive given the number of lefty-swinging infielders the Mets already have at their disposal.
  • Pirates: The Pirates evidently are looking to add a second baseman to their infield mix given their reported interest in a reunion with Adam Frazier, and the addition of Polanco would likely move the needle far more for the fourth-place club in 2024 should they hope to contend for the NL Central this season. The addition of Polanco would offer some veteran consistency to a young offense that dealt with extreme peaks and valleys throughout the 2023 campaign, and his 118 wRC+ last year would’ve been the best on Pittsburgh’s offense last year. With that being said, the Pirates still have a long way to go to catch up to the rest of the NL Central in 2024, and their rotation has even more question marks than Minnesota’s, rendering them unlikely to deal away a rotation piece like the Twins figure to seek.
  • Royals: Trades within a division are exceptionally rare, particularly when both clubs are seemingly hoping to contend in the coming season. With that being said, there’s at least an on-paper fit between the Royals and Twins for a Polanco deal. Kansas City needs offense even after adding Hunter Renfroe in free agency earlier this month, and Polanco would represent a massive upgrade over Michael Massey at the keystone. Meanwhile, the Royals could offer a package centered around a young arm like Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh who may be squeezed out of the club’s rotation mix by the recent additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City and Minnesota got together on a notable trade as recently as last offseason, when the Royals sent Michael A. Taylor to the Twins in exchange for a pair of relief prospects.

Twins Getting Trade Interest In Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

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Infielder Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” sources tell Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Polanco in particular, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds that the former All-Star’s market has “increased” within the last week.

It doesn’t appear as though a deal might be particularly close for either player, as the Twins are one of several teams whose winter business has been somewhat stalled by the logjam at the top of the free agent market.  As Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey told Nightengale and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, “what we continue to hear on the trade front…is ’Hey, we have interest in some of your players.  We’d like to talk about these guys, but we have to wait on a few other things to happen,’ or free agent discussions to come to pass.  When that happens, you’re constantly waiting to some degree.”

Trade winds have swirled around Polanco and Kepler even before the offseason began, and that speculation even before Favley said last month that the Twins were going to reduce their payroll for 2024.  It is worth noting that the Twins might’ve been able to make those cuts simply by not retaining Polanco or Kepler for the next season, though the team opted to exercise club options on both players (Polanco for $10.5MM, Kepler for $10MM) rather than just lose them for nothing.

With some level of trade interest brewing, it would appear as through Minnesota’s front office made the right decision.  Obviously it remains to be seen if either player will be dealt at all, or what a return might be for either solid-but-unspectacular veteran.  Kepler also has only one year of control remaining, while Polanco can be controlled through the 2025 season via another club option ($12MM with a $750K buyout).

A case can be made that the Twins could or retain both Polanco and Kepler given how the team has battled injuries (including some missed time for these two themselves) over the last two seasons, yet Minnesota does appear to have something of a surplus around the diamond.  With Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien emerging last season, third base and second base might now be covered, leaving Polanco without an obvious starting position since Carlos Correa naturally has Polanco’s old shortstop spot covered.  Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach are all left-handed hitting outfield options, so Kepler might be a bit of an expendable piece.

Perhaps ideally, Minnesota would prefer to trade utilityman Kyle Farmer (and his $6.6MM projected arbitration salary) rather than Polanco or Kepler.  That said, rival teams would likewise be more willing to give up a notable return to land an everyday type of commodity rather than Farmer, who is maybe best suited for a part-time role.  Since center field, first base, and the rotation are all target areas for the Twins this winter, they might have no choice but to move at least one of Polanco and Kepler to thread of needle of upgrading the roster while also reducing payroll at the same time.

Twins Could Pursue First Base Addition

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The Twins snapped the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports this year when they swept the Blue Jays out of the Wild Card round before falling 3-1 in an ALDS loss to the Astros. They’ll head into the offseason facing the potential loss of Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, but there are also other areas of need on the roster. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey indicated to Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that his club could also be in the market for an addition to their first base mix.

“With [Alex Kirilloff] and with potential external additions, it’ll probably be an area we do spend some time this offseason from free agent or trade perspective,” Falvey said of his team’s first base outlook.

Kirilloff, a longtime top prospect whose career trajectory has been altered by persistent wrist and shoulder injuries, served as the Twins’ primary first baseman when healthy in 2023. Free agents Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo also logged significant time at first base. There’s yet to be any indication the Twins plan to re-sign either. Gallo, in particular, seems likely to depart.

The 26-year-old Kirilloff turned in a very sound .270/.348/.445 batting line with 11 home runs in 319 plate appearances, but he also had multiple shoulder-related IL stints before ultimately undergoing surgery at season’s end. That procedure, Nightengale writes, was actually less invasive than the Twins originally anticipated, and he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

That said, it’s hard to bank on Kirilloff assuming the position on a full-time basis next year. The Twins thought highly enough of the former first-round pick to give him his MLB debut during the 2020 postseason, and he’s now spent parts of three seasons on the MLB roster. However, this past campaign’s 88 games and 319 plate appearances are both career-highs. Kirilloff’s 2021 and 2022 seasons ended with wrist surgery.

There’s little doubting Kirilloff’s raw abilities. He was the 15th overall draft pick in 2016 and hit a combined .324/.381/.525 in the minors — including a gaudy .366/.458/.673 in 53 Triple-A games. Prior to his MLB debut, he peaked as the game’s No. 15 overall prospect at Baseball America and climbed as high as ninth on MLB.com’s top 100 rankings. Even with the past wrist issues and ongoing shoulder troubles in ’23, he was a well above-average hitter. But his ability to remain on the field and the extent to which he can recover from a third notable surgery in three years are both open questions.

The Twins have alternatives at the position. Rookie infielder Edouard Julien, a top-100 prospect in his own right, hit the big league scene with a .263/.381/.459 batting line and 16 home runs as a rookie in 408 plate appearances this season. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there are questions about his ability to handle that spot long term and Julien already logged some time at first base. With Jorge Polanco entrenched at second base, slotting Julien in at first base and designated hitter could get his bat into the lineup more regularly. Of course, the Twins’ wealth of young infield talent makes Polanco an obvious trade candidate, and if he’s moved, that’d clear a spot for Julien at second base and Kirilloff and/or an external acquisition at first base.

Also in the mix is Jose Miranda — yet another former top prospect who broke through with a terrific rookie showing in 2022 before regressing in 2023 and eventually requiring a shoulder surgery of his own. Miranda batted .268/.325/.426 with 15 home runs in 125 games as a rookie in ’22 but limped to a .211/.263/.303 line in 40 big league games this past season. His work in Triple-A wasn’t any better, and he wound up being diagnosed with a shoulder impingement that resulted in September surgery. Still just 25 years of age, a healthy Miranda could work his way back into the mix as well.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t short on in-house options. The looming possibility of a Polanco trade (thus opening second base for Julien), uncertainty surrounding the health/durability of Kirilloff and Miranda, and the hopeful opening of some at-bats at the designated hitter position could all pave the way for Minnesota to bring in a bat, though. Byron Buxton spent the bulk of the 2023 season as a designated hitter due to lingering complications from last winter’s knee surgery, but the Twins are optimistic that he’ll be able to return to center field in 2024, per Falvey. That’d be a boon both offensively and defensively, if he’s able to do so.

The offseason market at first base isn’t exactly deep in terms of star power, though Rhys Hoskins stands as a prominent name on the open market (assuming his own recovery from a torn ACL progresses as expected). Brandon Belt is also available, though he’s a strict platoon option and bats from the same side of the plate as the left-handed Kirilloff. Buy-low options include Garrett Cooper and old friend C.J. Cron. Pete Alonso’s name has been kicked around the trade market, but Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he does not anticipate trading the star slugger (link via Will Sammon of The Athletic).

The Twins are expected to reduce payroll this coming season, albeit not drastically so. Revenue losses stemming from the collapse of their television deal under Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy create uncertainty in Minnesota, where Roster Resource currently projects them for a $125MM payroll. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the team’s payroll would likely settle between $125-140MM. Trading Polanco ($10.5MM), Max Kepler ($10MM) and/or Christian Vazquez ($10MM) would create some breathing room, as could a trade or non-tender of utility infielder Kyle Farmer (projected $6.6MM arbitration salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Twins Planning To Reduce Payroll

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The Twins anticipate scaling back player payroll this offseason, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). The Twins opened the 2023 season with an estimated $154MM figure, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts — about $20MM north of the previous organizational high.

“We’ve pushed our payroll to heights that we had never pushed it before with the support, certainly, of ownership,” Falvey said Tuesday. “We know there is some natural ebb and flow to that. Will it be where it was last year? I don’t expect that. I expect it less than that.”

Unsurprisingly, Minnesota’s front office leader declined to go on record with a specific spending target. However, Dan Hayes of the Athletic reports that the Opening Day number could land somewhere between $125MM and $140MM.

It’s not entirely surprising, as Falvey had alluded to a potential spending cut last month. At the time, he pointed to the club’s uncertain local television rights fees amidst the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the corporation that runs the Bally Sports networks. The Twins are one of 14 teams that had an agreement with Diamond. Minnesota is still without a resolution on its 2024 in-market broadcasts, as its previous local rights deal expired at the end of the season.

Nevertheless, it’ll be disappointing news for a fanbase just a month removed from celebrating an AL Central title and the end of an 18-game postseason losing streak. The Twins have a little over $90MM in guaranteed commitments after exercising options on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to start the offseason. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects around $20MM in salaries for the group of arbitration-eligible players. Minimum salary players to fill out the roster bring their current projection to roughly $120MM.

However, that includes a $6.6MM arbitration projection for potential non-tender candidate Kyle Farmer. Hayes writes that Minnesota plans to explore trade possibilities on Farmer, who had a solid first year in Minneapolis. Acquired from the Reds last winter, he hit .256/.317/.408 over 369 trips to the plate. While that’s quality production for a multi-positional infielder, Minnesota got even better play out of minor league signee Willi Castro.

The Twins also have Polanco as an option to bounce between second and third base, which are likely to be manned by Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis to begin the year. With Castro and Nick Gordon also on hand, Farmer could find himself on the outside looking in. If the Twins can’t find a trade partner, they’d need to decide by November 17 whether to tender him a contract.

Of course, Polanco or Kepler could be trade possibilities themselves. Nothing prevents Minnesota from dealing either player after exercising the option. While Polanco is part of a crowded infield, Kepler is one of a number of left-handed hitting outfielders. They’re both key contributors to the lineup, so the Twins don’t figure to give either player away. They’d each have appeal were Minnesota to put them on the trade market, however. That’s especially true of Polanco, who is arguably better than any middle infielder in this winter’s free agent class and controllable for an additional season via a $12MM option for 2025.

As things stand, Minnesota could fall into the reported $125-140MM range without moving anyone off the big league roster. They’d be without much flexibility for outside acquisitions and are facing the departures of a few notable free agents. Sonny Gray is a lock to decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal worth upwards of $20MM annually, a price that’s difficult to see the Twins matching unless they move multiple players. Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, Emilio Pagán, Tyler Mahle and Donovan Solano all also hit the market. Taylor could be a particularly tough loss if the Twins aren’t confident in Byron Buxton manning center field regularly next season.

The rotation could be in solid shape even if none of Gray, Maeda or Mahle return. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack is a strong front four, while Louie Varland has upside at the back end. The group would be a lot thinner without Gray and Maeda, however, making it difficult to repeat their AL-best production of this past season. It stands to reason they’d like to bring in at least one veteran arm to stabilize things — either in a trade or via free agency after reallocating some money.

Twins To Exercise Options On Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco

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The Twins are exercising their club options on outfielder Max Kepler and infielder Jorge Polanco, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic (X link). Kepler will make $10MM, while Polanco is set for a $10.5MM salary.

Both moves were expected. Kepler started slowly but found his form in the second half. He finished the season with a .260/.332/.484 line with 24 home runs across 491 plate appearances. That’s well above-average offense, his best season since a 36-homer showing in 2019. He’s also a strong defender in right field, making the $10MM price point a bargain. He’ll be a free agent for the first time in his career next offseason.

Polanco was limited to 80 games by injury but turned in a characteristically solid season. The switch-hitting infielder ran a .255/.335/.454 line through 343 trips to the plate. Primarily a second baseman, Polanco moved to third base later in the year in deference to hot-hitting rookie Edouard Julien. The Twins have Royce Lewis at the hot corner, leaving Polanco in a multi-positional role.

Despite the infield depth, there was never much question about Minnesota exercising the option. A $10.5MM salary is strong value for a player who would have been this year’s top free agent middle infielder had the Twins cut him loose. His contract also contains a $12.5MM team option for 2025. That comes with a $750K buyout that is now guaranteed.

The moves add an expected $20.5MM to Minnesota’s player payroll, which now sits around $88MM. That’s well below this year’s Opening Day estimate of approximately $154MM. The Twins have a fair bit of spending room and could certainly find trade interest in Kepler and/or Polanco if they were to entertain dealing from their position player depth.

MLBTR Podcast: Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
  • Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
  • Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

AL Notes: Twins, Glasnow, Cora

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While the Twins are facing an uncertain payroll situation headed into the offseason, Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune indicates that won’t stop the club from picking up options on second baseman Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, noting both options are “expected” to be picked up around the league. That being said, Nightengale also notes that both players figure to be in the center of trade discussions this winter if Minnesota looks to utilize their position player depth to acquire more pitching.

That’s a familiar situation to Kepler in particular, who found his name in the rumor mill both last offseason and again at the trade deadline. After posting below-average offensive numbers in both 2021 and 2022, Kepler bounced back in a big way this season with a .260/.332/.484 slash line in 130 games, adding a plus bat to his reputation as a strong defender in the outfield. A free agent after the 2024 campaign if his option is picked up, Kepler would be an attractive one-year addition for outfield-needy teams that the Twins could afford to part with due to the presence of young outfielders like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach.

Polanco, on the other hand, has team options for both 2024 and 2025 that make him a more significant player to part with. The switch-hitting infielder has been a model of consistency when on the field the past few years, with a wRC+ between 118 and 124 in every full season since 2019. That being said, he’s been plagued by injuries the past two seasons, appearing in just 80 contests for the Twins in 2023 and 104 in 2022.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a poll of MLBTR readers regarding whether or not the club should deal Polanco, with 56% of respondents voting that he should be dealt. Effective as Polanco has been, that sentiment in understandable given the club’s cluttered infield mix that features Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien and up-and-coming prospects like Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. Nightengale adds that the Twins could use Polanco in a super utility, multi-positional role next season if he’s retained for 2024. While Polanco profiles best as a second baseman, he played 15 games at third base this year and spent time at shortstop early in his career as well.

More from around the American League…

  • Ever since right-hander Tyler Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays that guaranteed him a $25MM payday in 2024, speculation has percolated throughout the baseball world that Tampa would look to move him before the final year of that contract. With RosterResource projecting the Rays for a franchise-record payroll of $130MM next year, moving Glasnow would be a viable strategy for the club if they look to get closer to their 2022 level of $79MM. That said, it’s worth noting that the Rays have indicated they’re open to increasing payroll next year and the club’s biggest area of need is the starting rotation. That need would get bigger without Glasnow, who pitched to a 3.53 ERA and 2.91 FIP across 21 starts this season. For his part, Glasnow wants to stay with the Rays in 2024 and beyond. As relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Glasnow spoke glowingly of the organization and its culture while noting the $150MM offer the club made to Freddie Freeman during the 2021-22 offseason as evidence that the club could retain him beyond 2024, if they so chose.
  • While Red Sox manager Alex Cora took himself out of the running for the club’s opening atop the baseball operations department early in the club’s search for their next GM, at the time it was believed that Cora would play a significant role in the hiring process as Boston looked to replace ousted chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. This morning, however, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam notes that Cora’s role in the process may not be as substantial as previously believed. McAdam reports that a source has indicated that Cora has had very little involvement in the process to this point, though McAdam does note that the Red Sox’s intentions of involving Cora were focused on ensuring a good working relationship between the manager and his new boss. Given those goals, it’s certainly possible Cora could have greater impact on the process once the team has narrowed the field of candidates down further.

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Jorge Polanco?

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Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.

Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.

The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.

Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.

There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.

At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.

Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.

The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.

Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.

The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.

Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.

What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

The Twins’ Breakout Rookie

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The Twins have rattled off five consecutive wins, pushing themselves a season-high six games above .500. Paired with the Guardians dropping eight of their last 10, Minnesota has stretched their lead in the AL Central to 5.5 games. All of a sudden, only the Braves have a larger cushion at the top of a division.

That’s somewhat a reflection of an otherwise dismal AL Central, of course. Yet Minnesota has a 19-12 record since the start of June and the sixth-best run differential overall (+53) among American League clubs. They’re playing like a legitimate playoff team.

Among the reasons for Minnesota’s improved production of late: a somewhat quiet building case for Rookie of the Year consideration. Edouard Julien owns a .299/.389/.512 batting line through his first 235 plate appearances. Among the 43 first-year players with 200+ trips to the dish, none is reaching base at a higher clip. Only Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Yainer Diaz and Luke Raley have a better slugging mark.

Julien has only played 65 games, roughly three-fifths of the action logged by the likes of Josh Jung and Gunnar Henderson. He’d be behind that duo in Rookie of the Year consideration if the season ended today. There’s a chance for Julien to close that gap in the season’s final couple months (particularly with Jung set to miss six weeks thanks to a thumb fracture that’ll require surgery).

Award consideration aside, the more meaningful development is the introduction of a middle-of-the-order caliber bat into Minnesota’s lineup. That didn’t come out of nowhere. The lefty-swinging Julien had been regarded as one of the more talented offensive players in the minor leagues before making his MLB debut. There’s some amount of uncertainty with any prospect before they get exposure to big league pitching, though, and Julien has only 38 games of Triple-A experience under his belt.

The 24-year-old hasn’t had any issues against MLB pitching thus far. His results in the minors had been built on power and an extremely patient plate approach. He’s showing the same profile at the MLB level. Julien almost never chases pitches off the plate; his 18.9% swing rate on offerings outside the strike zone is lowest among all MLB hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Julien is swinging at pitches within the zone at a roughly average clip. That’s generally the approach one would want to see from a hitter, particularly a rookie — patient without getting too passive.

Julien’s comfort working deep counts is naturally going to come with a fair number of strikeouts. There’s also just some swing-and-miss in his game; he’s made contact on 72.2% of his swings, roughly four percentage points below the 76.4% league average. Julien will probably strike out too often to be a .300 hitter. His .410 average on balls in play is bound for some regression.

There’s no need for Julien to run a near-.300 average to be a productive player, though. He’s going to work plenty of walks to keep his OBP floor high. Prospect evaluators have credited him with above-average to plus power potential. Julien has shown that at the MLB level, connecting on 10 homers with a quality 42.9% hard contact percentage.

The remaining concern in Julien’s offensive profile is probably his limited track record against same-handed pitching. The Twins have shielded him against southpaws, keeping him to 29 MLB plate appearances thus far. In 2022, he had marked platoon splits in Double-A. Julien hit .332/.465/.566 against righties in the minors last season compared to a .210/.373/.276 showing versus left-handers.

For now, the Twins are happy with a rookie who’s mashing right-handed pitching. The Twins have struggled as a team against southpaws, but they have Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and switch-hitting Willi Castro on hand as righty-capable infielders who can take some pressure off Julien in the short term.

Moving forward, the bigger question is where Julien fits best defensively. Scouting reports have long pegged him as a well below-average defender at second base, where he’s spent the majority of his professional career. Public metrics have panned his work over his first 366 MLB innings at the keystone.

The Twins have lived with the subpar middle infield glove to inject more life into the offense. Julien’s two promotions have been in response to injuries to Jorge Polanco. The latter is now healthy, but the Twins reshuffled their infield to keep Julien in the lineup. Polanco has started four times at third base since being reinstated from the IL on July 28, his first work at the hot corner in seven years.

Whether Minnesota feels that’s a long-term option remains to be seen. The Twins could welcome Royce Lewis back from an oblique strain within the next couple weeks. The former first overall pick has battled myriad injury issues throughout his career but been a productive player whenever healthy. Lewis is probably ticketed for regular run at the hot corner when he returns. That could push Polanco back to the keystone and perhaps move Julien into a primary designated hitter capacity.

That’d enable Minnesota to cut into the playing time of Joey Gallo, who is hitting .156/.276/.349 since an excellent first month. Beyond this season, Julien’s emergence figures to only raise more questions about the possibility of subtracting a left-handed bat to add more lineup balance. Gallo’s impending free agency will remove one player from the group, while the club will have a net $9MM option decision on Max Kepler.

If they’re comfortable with Julien as a tolerable (if fringy) defender at second base, that could lead to an interesting question on Polanco’s future. Minnesota can bring the veteran infielder back on a $10.5MM option. That’s solid value — before this year’s injury-plagued season, Polanco was one of the league’s better offensive second basemen — but could make him a potential trade candidate. The Brewers, for instance, exercised an option on Kolten Wong before dealing him to Seattle last offseason.

Those are decisions the Minnesota front office could weigh three months from now. In the interim, they’ll be thrilled with Julien’s excellent start to his career. Wherever he plays, he looks like an impact piece in the lineup, at least against right-handed pitching. The Twins are in pole position for a division title after a disappointing 2021-22 stretch, in part because of their hot-hitting rookie.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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