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Josh Donaldson

AL Notes: Blue Jays, Yankees, Sox, Frazier

By Connor Byrne | February 19, 2017 at 1:06pm CDT

Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson is likely to sit out the next two to three weeks on account of the right calf strain he suffered Friday, reports John Lott of The Athletic (Twitter link). The durable superstar hasn’t appeared in fewer than 155 games in any of the past four seasons and, barring a setback, it doesn’t appear this injury will affect his Opening Day availability.

Elsewhere in the AL…

  • When first baseman Chris Carter was still unsigned at the end of January, his agent, Dave Stewart, suggested that the slugger would have to seriously consider signing in Japan. Carter ultimately didn’t have to take such a drastic measure, of course, as he inked a one-year deal with the Yankees earlier this month. Now, it doesn’t seem as though Japan was ever a legitimate possibility for Carter. The 2016 National League co-leader in home runs (41) told reporters – including Randy Miller of NJ.com – on Saturday that the notion of going to Japan was “probably not that real” and “was more just to cover all bases and check all options.” Carter did admit, however, that he “started getting antsy” when February rolled around and he didn’t have a contract. “It’s definitely a tough offseason this year, but it seems like the game is changing a little bit where there is more emphasis on complete players,” he stated.
  • If Pablo Sandoval doesn’t reestablish himself as a capable third baseman this year, the Red Sox could eventually swing a trade for Todd Frazier of the White Sox, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Chicago will have paid more than half of Frazier’s $12.5MM salary by the trade deadline, which should make the 31-year-old an attractive target for Boston or other contenders, Cafardo observes. Given that the White Sox are amid a rebuild, it seems they’d prefer to ship out established veterans like Frazier sooner than later, as general manager Rick Hahn implied in an interview with MLBTR contributor Brett Ballantini earlier this week.
  • The Yankees listened to offers for left fielder Brett Gardner over the winter, though no trade materialized. That surprised Gardner, who told Miller on Sunday that he expected a deal to occur. Considering Gardner’s a soon-to-be 34-year-old playing on a team that has committed itself to a youth movement, he could still end up on the move sometime soon. The careerlong Yankee addressed that, saying, “I guess on one hand obviously I don’t want to get traded, but on the other hand the fact that maybe some other teams have interest in me, I see that as a compliment.”
  • White Sox center fielder Charlie Tilson suffered a stress fracture in his right foot and will cease impact activities for at least 10 days, tweets Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. If healthy, the 24-year-old Tilson figures to start in center this season for the Sox, who acquired him from the Cardinals last July for reliever Zach Duke. In his big league debut in August, Tilson tore his hamstring and missed the remainder of 2016 as a result.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox New York Yankees Toronto Blue Jays Brett Gardner Charlie Tilson Chris Carter Josh Donaldson Todd Frazier

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AL East Notes: Donaldson, Interpreters, Gibbons, HanRam, Gausman

By Zachary Links,Jeff Todd and Tim Dierkes | March 23, 2016 at 11:03am CDT

Star Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson has personal experience with domestic violence, as Rosie DiManno of The Star writes.  As a child, Donaldson was exposed to a troubled relationship between his mother and father. “I’m not going to get too colorful with it. But it wasn’t pretty. The best way I can describe it is I can still remember things from when I was from three to five years old that are very vivid in my mind to this day. And it’s not something I would want anybody else to go through. It not only affects the two people that are involved but it affects children. It definitely has had an effect on me throughout my life,” Donaldson said. The reigning AL MVP is obviously to be applauded for his willingness to address a difficult and important subject that continues to pose challenges to major sports leagues.

  • While not of the same level of significance, another notable off-field topic that’s drawn attention of late is the inclusion of Spanish interpreters in major league clubhouses, and Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News provides an interesting look at the subject. Veteran Yankees outfielder Carlos Beltran, who helped lead the charge to bring Spanish translation on board for every team, explains how important it is for players. “The reality is that most of these guys come and get to the big leagues, sometimes they don’t know how to express themselves the right way,” Beltran said. “I look at having a translator as a no-brainer because it will help communication between everybody. Players and coaches, players and players, and players and media. I don’t know why it took so long.” The article includes worthwhile thoughts from several players with different language backgrounds, and is highly recommended.
  • While the Blue Jays’ new front office ultimately modified the contract of manager John Gibbons, Jeff Blair and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report that Gibbons had raised the matter himself previously with former GM Alex Anthopoulos. “It’s something I first spoke to Alex about before he left,” said Gibbons. The new arrangement does away with the “rolling option” — which became guaranteed on each New Year’s Day with another option year added each time — that existed under his original contract.  By the way, Gibbons confirmed this morning that Marcus Stroman will be the Jays’ Opening Day starter.
  • Though he expresses skepticism, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that off-the-record conversations with Red Sox players and staff “all reflect a positive theme” regarding first baseman Hanley Ramirez, suggesting that perhaps the veteran has matured in his second spring with the Red Sox. Ramirez appears to be enjoying himself this spring, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes, who notes that the returns have been generally positive on Ramirez’s work at first.
  • Kevin Gausman says his right shoulder pain is improving, but his status for Opening Day is still in question, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes.  Right now, the Orioles hurler says he is aiming to be ready “by hopefully the first or second week of the season.” Needless to say, his health is of critical importance to a Baltimore club that faces rotation questions and hopes the youngster will take the next step in his development in 2016.
  • In case you missed it, the Orioles added lefty reliever Zach Phillips on a Major League deal this morning, as insurance for the injured Brian Matusz.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays Brian Matusz Hanley Ramirez John Gibbons Josh Donaldson Kevin Gausman

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Blue Jays, Josh Donaldson Reach Two-Year Extension

By Jeff Todd | February 10, 2016 at 11:52am CDT

The Blue Jays have announced a two-year, $28.65MM deal with star third baseman Josh Donaldson. He’ll earn $11.65MM in 2016 and $17MM for the following year.

The sides had been set for arbitration, with Donaldson filing at $11.8MM and the team countering at $11.35MM. While the gulf between those numbers is obviously a pittance compared to the overall value involved, the Jays employ a “trial and file” strategy that made a hearing inevitable after numbers were swapped — barring a multi-year deal. The sides could have worked out a deal to buy out all of Donaldson’s remaining arb years — he was a Super Two last year and is under control through 2018 via arbitration — if not a yet longer pact to lock up some free agent seasons, but chose the more straightforward option.

Josh Donaldson

Fresh off of an American League MVP award, Donaldson had enormous earning power at the arb table. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz broke down his case in January, noting that the projected $12MM salary would have represented a record $7.7MM raise. Obviously, both team and player agreed that was a bit more than was warranted, though even the Jays were willing to pay the same bump that the prior record holder received (Chris Davis, with a $7.05MM raise).

The new deal not only rewards Donaldson for his monster 2015 season with a nice salary in the coming season, but also promises him a second huge payday. It’s less than he might have earned with another strong season — and much less than a repeat MVP effort would have brought — but significantly reduces his risk in exchange for some potential cost savings and certainty to the club.

Donaldson, who came over from the A’s last winter, went to a hearing with his new club before he ever suited up. The club won, with Donaldson settling for $4.3MM — a fair sight shy of the $5.75MM that he sought. Of course, he’s now more than made up for it with this new deal.

There certainly weren’t any lingering effects from that adversarial proceeding on Donaldson, who exceeded already-high expectations last year. The MVP tab was well deserved, as the 30-year-old delivered a .297/.371/.568 slash and 41 home runs, helping to lead Toronto to an AL East pennant. With typically stellar defense mixed in, Donaldson tallied 8.8 rWAR and 8.7 fWAR.

Something of a late-bloomer, Donaldson represents a tough decision as a long-term extension candidate. There’s little chance he’d take a significant discount to give away free agent years, but he’s already under control through his age-32 season and has every right to demand a premium payday.

Toronto is, of course, already examining the possibility of buying up seasons of sluggers in their mid-30s, as pending free agents Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are on the docket for extension talks this spring. Having Donaldson’s salary for 2017 already on the books certainly removes a variable, though balancing the long-term checkbook still seems a matter that will require some care.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reported the agreement and approximate value. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the precise guarantee (via the Washington Post).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Josh Donaldson

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Blue Jays Notes: Price, Donaldson, Bautista, Floyd

By Steve Adams | February 9, 2016 at 10:55pm CDT

Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke to Jim Bowden about the decision not to re-sign David Price this offseason (audio link). “Every team has a budget,” Shapiro began. “Every team has operating parameters. I don’t know why it’s not fashionable to just say the truth. David Price would’ve represented almost our entire offseason. It’s that simple, Jim. Almost no one would make that decision. … To me, it comes down to we had a very, very, very challenging pitching dilemma here in that we lost him, we lost [Marco] Estrada. We had zero Triple-A pitchers — not one, not a name to fill our rotation in Triple-A. We had to take the money, which was ample, and figure out how to both solve the Major League rotation, which was two spots in the rotation, along with solving a depth challenge. … Regardless of how great one pitcher is, you need to build a team around the guy, too.”

More from Shapiro and more on the Jays…

  • Within that same interview, Shapiro also said that he discussed multiple concepts with Josh Donaldson’s representatives before agreeing to a two-year, $29MM contract. The club explored long-term contract scenarios that would buy out free-agent years as well as three-year deals to lock in all of his remaining arbitration seasons and also just straight one-year deals. “Josh is a guy that not only performed at an elite level from a talent perspective but provided the energy, leadership and competitive edge that, to me, fueled this team last year,” said Shapiro of the reigning American League MVP.
  • With Donaldson’s contract situation now resolved, the club can turn its attention to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Shapiro explained that the team has a clear desire to extend each player, but the question of what it will take to do so is significant. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron attempts to price out an extension for Bautista, who will turn 36 in October and is thus considerably older than the typical extension candidate. Even elite position players in Bautista’s age class have been limited to a maximum of four years, writes Cameron, citing the contracts for Victor Martinez, Ben Zobrist and Carlos Beltran as examples of older stars that have taken four (or, in Beltran’s case, three) years on the open market. As Cameron notes, a good bit of decline will need to be expected over the term of the contract, and it’s likely that Bautista would look like an overvalued asset in a four-year deal’s final season. Ultimately, after making a four-year WAR projection and forecasting for some year-to-year regression, Cameron arrives at a four-year, $75MM pact as a reasonable price.
  • There’s some sense to that deal for both sides, to be sure, though I personally wonder if Cameron’s general hypothesis that Bautista would land at four years and $90MM on the open market next year undersells his earning potential. Assuming a characteristically productive season, Bautista could be the premier bat on a thin free-agent market, and age notwithstanding, a $22.5MM annual value isn’t the top of the spectrum for premium power hitters. I’d wager that a current Blue Jays extension would have to top $80MM in total value, as I can envision enough interest in his bat to push that earning ceiling closer to, or even north of $100MM on the open market, either via an increased annual value or via a club tacking on a fifth year (at a much lower rate) as a means of pushing its offer over the top. (For those interested in further reading on Bautista, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk profiled his extension candidacy back in November.)
  • Gavin Floyd’s strong finish to the 2015 season in Cleveland impressed not only Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins (both were still with the Indians at the time), but a number of Blue Jays scouts as well, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Floyd’s fastball sat at 92 mph and touched 95 mph, writes Nicholson-Smith, and with three additional breaking pitches in his arsenal, Atkins, Shapiro and the scouting staff deemed him worthy of a 40-man roster spot if that was the final component needed to get Floyd to Toronto. “He has the make-up of a starter with a repeatable delivery and a four-pitch arsenal,” said Atkins. “We’ve also seen his work ethic up close and we know it’s going to be there.” As Nicholson-Smith notes, Floyd doesn’t need to provide much value to justify such a minimal investment.
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Toronto Blue Jays David Price Gavin Floyd Jose Bautista Josh Donaldson

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Arbitration Hearing Notes: Donaldson, Arrieta, Martinez, Britton, Astros

By Steve Adams | February 5, 2016 at 9:14am CDT

The arbitration hearing between the Blue Jays and Josh Donaldson is set for Feb. 15, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter), giving the two sides 10 days to work out a multi-year deal. President Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins said last night that the two sides have been discussing such a pact, and the hearing deadline certainly gives the club motivation to strike a deal. The Blue Jays employ a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, which is to say that the team is one of many that have a policy against negotiating on one-year deals once figures are exchanged. That approach led to a hearing between the Blue Jays and Donaldson last year, and both sides undoubtedly would prefer to avoid a hearing for the second straight season. The Blue Jays won a hearing over Donaldson last winter, though he’ll have an American League MVP Award in his corner this season. Those interested in Donaldson’s case can check out an in-depth look from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, written as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series, prior to the exchange of figures.

Some more notes on various arbitration hearings around the league…

  • The Cubs and reigning NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta are on a tighter schedule, as Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com reports (on Twitter). Arrieta’s arbitration hearing is set to come next Tuesday — Feb. 9. The $5.5MM gap between Arrieta’s submitted figure of $13MM and the Cubs’ $7.5MM counter is the largest of any case this year. Swartz also examined Arrieta’s case at length.
  • J.D. Martinez and the Tigers are continuing to discuss both one- and two-year deals, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Martinez appears open to a considerably longer-term deal, having voiced a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Tigers. Martinez said last month that the two sides have discussed a long-term deal, but it’s unclear whether talks on a contract extending the club’s control beyond Martinez’s two remaining arbitration seasons has been seriously discussed. Swartz broke down Martinez’s case at length as well.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that the Orioles and Zach Britton have a hearing set for Feb. 17 (Twitter link). The two sides are facing a fairly sizable $2.3MM gap between Britton’s $7.9MM figure and the club’s $5.6MM counter. If a deal can’t be reached, it’d mark the second straight season with an arb hearing for the Orioles, who won a hearing over Alejandro De Aza last February.
  • The Astros have arbitration hearings for Jason Castro and Evan Gattis set for Feb. 8 and Feb. 16, respectively, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). With Houston taking a file-and-trial approach to arbitration, both cases seem likely to reach a trial. Castro, in particular, seems destined for that outcome, as he’s a free agent following the season and thus unlikely to hammer out a multi-year deal.
  • While in many cases, the gap between the player and team submission appears trivial, there’s a reason that many teams take such a firm stance. MLBTR spoke to multiple Major League executives on the topic last February to get their explanation of the responsibility felt by teams in arbitration.

All of the remaining unresolved cases, as well as the exchange of figures and settled amounts for all 156 players that filed for arbitration can be viewed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

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Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Toronto Blue Jays Evan Gattis J.D. Martinez Jake Arrieta Jason Castro Josh Donaldson Zach Britton

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AL East Notes: Bautista, Donaldson, Chavez, Gallardo, Betts

By Jeff Todd | February 4, 2016 at 7:08pm CDT

Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista indicated that he’s very open to holding contract talks before reaching free agency after the season, as Gregory Strong of the Canadian Press reports. Bautista said it would be an honor to end his career in Toronto, though obviously there’s a long way to go to make that happen. He noted that he had recently sat down with new club president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, but also suggested that true negotiations haven’t occurred. “I have to have something to consider at some point if I’m going to make that decision, which hasn’t happened yet,” said Bautista. “So I’m going to continue to go about my business just like any other year and any other day because I don’t really have a decision to make right now.”

Here’s more out of the AL East, including a few other notable possible extension scenarios — a topic that Steve Adams and I tackled on today’s MLBTR Podcast.

  • Shapiro and Atkins are addressing their fanbase as we speak, and quotes continue to be reported. Josh Donaldson’s contract situation came up, as it appears he’s headed for a second arb hearing unless a multi-year agreement can be reached. (The club employs a file-and-trial approach.) Atkins indicated that there is real interest in a multi-year scenario, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports (Twitter links), though it could well be an arb-only agreement. Nevertheless, the newly-minted general manager suggested that something more could at least be contemplated. “We want him here as long as humanly possible,” he said.
  • The team seemingly already went to an arb hearing with righty Jesse Chavez, Nicholson-Smith tweets. There’s only a $400K difference between the sides’ filings — $4MM vs. $3.6MM — so there isn’t a ton of money at stake. It’s certainly possible that both preferred to take their chances to bridging the gap. Either way, Chavez will fall shy of his $4.7MM projection.
  • Meanwhile, Shapiro says that it’s unlikely the team will make another major move before hitting camp, as Nicholson-Smith tweets. But the team has had “substantive conversations as recently as just a few days ago,” per Shapiro.
  • We’ve heard a lot of back-and-forth on the Orioles’ interest in signing free agent righty Yovani Gallardo — and giving up the 14th overall pick — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says that the O’s are still monitoring things. If Gallardo’s asking price falls far enough, the team could be willing to punt the pick.
  • The Red Sox don’t have much reason to pursue an extension with blooming star Mookie Betts, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal argues. Boston already has five years of control over Betts, isn’t really in need of cost certainty, and may prefer to avoid shifting forward salary for purposes of luxury tax calculations.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays Jesse Chavez Jose Bautista Josh Donaldson Mookie Betts Yovani Gallardo

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Blue Jays Notes: Donaldson, Arbitration, Shapiro

By charliewilmoth | January 16, 2016 at 4:42pm CDT

Here are a couple quick notes from out of Toronto:

  • The Blue Jays’ exchange of arbitration figures with MVP Josh Donaldson on Friday is a source of concern, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. Next offseason, the Jays will face the potential free agency of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey and several other key players, and they’ll need to remake themselves around Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin. Their farm system is relatively weak in the upper levels after their midseason trades last year, too, so they’ll have to supplement that core without much initial help from their farm system. Arbitration hearings can be contentious, and the Jays already took Donaldson to arbitration once last winter. Davidi feels it therefore seems a bit worrisome that they’re apparently set to do it again, even though the difference between their filing numbers ($11.8MM versus $11.35MM) is only $450K. On the other hand, the Jays already have about $130MM committed to their big-league payroll in 2016, and need all the payroll space they can get, not only for the coming season, but for the future, when they’ll have to handle replacing or re-signing their long list of players who are eligible for free agency.
  • New Jays president Mark Shapiro is not “Darth Vader,” he tells Brendan Kennedy of the Star in a lengthy profile. Jays fans haven’t exactly warmed to Shapiro, whose arrival helped lead to the departure of GM Alex Anthopoulos, who had just helped build the Jays’ exciting 2015 team. “It’s not consistent with who I’ve been for 24 years,” Shapiro says of certain aspects of his current reputation in Toronto. “I’ve got a pretty good track record of who I am as a person and who I am as a leader. So it’s a little strange to all of a sudden go from a guy who was considered to be a nice guy to a guy who’s Darth Vader.”
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Toronto Blue Jays Josh Donaldson

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2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

By Jeff Todd | January 15, 2016 at 7:16pm CDT

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

  • Jake Arrieta, Cubs: $13MM versus $7.5MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
  • Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: $13.1MM versus $9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: $11.8MM versus $11.35MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Neil Walker, Mets: $11.8MM versus $9.4MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
  • J.D. Martinez, Tigers: $8MM versus $6MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Trevor Plouffe, Twins: $7.95MM versus $7MM (Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, via Twitter)
  • Zach Britton, Orioles: $7.9MM versus $5.6MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
  • Brandon Belt, Giants: $7.5MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Lucas Duda, Mets: $7.4MM versus $5.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Garrett Richards, Angels: $7.1MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Mike Moustakas, Royals: $7MM versus $4.2MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
  • Nate Eovaldi, Yankees: $6.3MM versus $4.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Mitch Moreland, Rangers: $6MM versus $4.675MM (Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, via Twitter)
  • Kevin Jepsen, Twins: $5.4MM versus $5.05MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Jason Castro, Astros: $5.25MM versus $5MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Jeurys Familia, Mets: $4.8MM versus $3.3MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
  • Ivan Nova, Yankees: $4.6MM versus $3.8MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
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Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Aroldis Chapman Brandon Belt Garrett Richards Ivan Nova J.D. Martin J.D. Martinez Jake Arrieta Jason Castro Jeurys Familia Josh Donaldson Kevin Jepsen Lucas Duda Mike Moustakas Mitch Moreland Neil Walker Trevor Plouffe Zach Britton

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Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Donaldson

By Matt Swartz | January 7, 2016 at 8:48am CDT

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

The reigning Most Valuable Player of the American League enters his second year of arbitration eligibility due for a healthy raise on the $4.3MM he earned in his award-winning season. Josh Donaldson hit .297 with 41 home runs and 123 runs batted in 711 plate appearances, with an All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger Award to add to his MVP honors.

Josh Donaldson

It was the third baseman’s first year with the Blue Jays after a solid career in Oakland, and he certainly made a great impression on his new employers. Now, they will have to pay up in his second year of arbitration. Our model and several knowledgeable sources have confirmed that after the first year of arbitration eligibility, most players’ cases are treated as raises based almost exclusively on the previous year’s statistics. This helps explain why the model projects that Donaldson will receive a $7.7MM raise to a total of $12MM, which would be a record raise for a second-time eligible player.

The model’s projection of a record raise seems appropriate. The current record belongs to Chris Davis in 2014, who did not win an MVP Award when received a $7.05MM raise. Davis did out-homer Donaldson, 53 to 42, and had 138 RBIs — 15 more than Donaldson — as well. But, Donaldson had a higher average, .297 versus .286, and played a harder defensive position (third base versus first base) and is known for his excellent defense. While defensive performance usually does not matter much in arbitration cases (other than position played), I believe that Donaldson should be able to use his defense and his hardware to argue that he should have a bigger raise than Davis did– probably something in line with the $12MM projection, I would guess.

The last hitter to enter his second year of arbitration eligibility after winning an MVP Award was five years ago, when Josh Hamilton earned a $5.5MM raise. Hamilton had hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 RBIs, but in only 571 plate appearances. Donaldson’s 140 extra trips to the plate with nine more home runs and 23 more runs knocked in should help him argue for a much larger raise than Hamilton received on the heels of his MVP season in 2010. Even if Donaldson cannot effectively argue that his raise should be larger than Davis’ due to the power gap, he should have less trouble arguing that he is deserving of a bigger raise than Hamilton received five years ago.

Few other players seem likely to make better arbitration cases for Donaldson than Hamilton and Davis. As a result, I think the case will likely come down to an argument about whether Donaldson should get something like a $6MM raise to top Hamilton by a decent margin, or whether Donaldson should get a $7.5MM raise to set a new record beyond Davis. It’s unlikely that Donaldson out-earned the $12MM salary I have projected for him, but I think it is more likely than not that he is close to this range. If he cannot argue that his case is stronger than Davis, though, he might end up around $10.3MM — a hefty raise, to be sure, but a fair margin shy of the current record increase that our model currently projects.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Arbitration Breakdown MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays Uncategorized Josh Donaldson

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Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson Win MVP Awards

By Steve Adams | November 19, 2015 at 6:00pm CDT

Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper and Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson were named the most valuable players in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced today. Harper was the unanimous choice for first place among the 30 who voted, whereas Donaldson took home 23 of the 30 first-place votes. Ballots for MVP voting go 10 deep and are based on a scale that awards 14 points for a first-place vote and then nine, eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two and one respectively down the list.

Paul Goldschmidt was the runaway choice for second place, collecting 18 second-place votes and 234 points. Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, Andrew McCutchen, Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke each received second-place votes and finished third through seventh, in that order. Rounding out the remainder of the ballot were (in order) Nolan Arenado, Buster Posey, Clayton Kershaw, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Yoenis Cespedes, A.J. Pollock, Jason Heyward, Dee Gordon, Trevor Rosenthal, Curtis Granderson, Gerrit Cole and Adrian Gonzalez. (Full voting breakdown here.)

That Harper won shouldn’t come as a surprise, as he was widely believed to be the favorite for the award on the heels of a historically great age-22 season. (Winning in unanimous fashion is perhaps a mild surprise, as there are still voters who prefer their MVPs to come from playoff clubs.) The former No. 1 overall draft pick batted .330/.460/.649 and led the National League in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs (42) and runs scored (118). Harper was consistent throughout the season, never posting a monthly OPS lower than .909, and his all-around contributions were valued at 9.9 wins above replacement by Baseball-Reference.com and 9.5 WAR by Fangraphs.

Shifting to the American League, Mike Trout unsurprisingly finished runner-up and received all seven of the other first-place votes that did not go to Donaldson. The top two finishers combined to receive all but one of the first- and second-place votes, with Nelson Cruz receiving one second-place vote. Donaldson’s final point total was 385, with Trout coming in at 304. Rounding out the top 20 (in order): Lorenzo Cain, Manny Machado, Dallas Keuchel, Cruz, Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista, David Price, Jose Altuve, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Prince Fielder, Chris Davis, J.D. Martinez, Jason Kipnis, Kevin Kiermaier, Kendrys Morales, Chris Sale and Mookie Betts. (Full voting breakdown here.)

Donaldson’s first season with the Blue Jays was everything Toronto could’ve hoped for and then some when trading Brett Lawrie and three prospects for him last offseason. The 29-year-old batted .297/.371/.568 and blasted 41 homers, leading the American League in both runs scored (122) and RBIs (123). In addition to his outstanding offensive contributions, Donaldson ranked among the game’s elite at third base, saving 11 runs above the average defender, by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and nine runs above average per Ultimate Zone Rating. B-Ref (8.8) and Fangraphs (8.7) were more or less in agreement on Donaldson’s value in terms of wins above replacement.

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Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Bryce Harper Josh Donaldson

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