Juan Soto’s Hall Of Fame Track
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Juan Soto’s free agency was the offseason’s biggest storyline for good reason. It concluded Sunday evening with a colossal 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, which is now official. Soto brings with him a résumé that’ll almost certainly send him to Cooperstown in a couple decades.
Soto wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow. He doesn’t have the requisite 10 seasons of major league action for consideration and he obviously hasn’t accrued HOF-caliber counting stats in just seven years. Yet he’s about as much of a lock for future induction as a player can possibly get by the time he turns 26.
The accolades are already beginning to stack up. Soto has yet to win an MVP award, but he’s finished in the top 10 in five of his six full seasons. He has a trio of top five placements. He’s been named to the All-Star Game four years running and would’ve gotten a fifth nod had the Midsummer Classic been played in 2020. Soto carries an ongoing streak of five consecutive Silver Slugger awards.
The statistical profile is eye-popping. Through his first 936 career games, Soto is a .285/.421/.532 hitter. The .953 OPS puts him in rarified air. Soto is tied with Todd Helton for 23rd on the career OPS leaderboard. That was enough to get Helton, who played his home games at Coors Field at a time when offense was much higher around the league, into Cooperstown. Helton had a career 133 OPS+ after adjusting for the park and league setting. Soto is rocking a 160 OPS+ despite the identical raw slash line.
Players with this kind of rate production are locks for the Hall of Fame unless they taint their case with performance-enhancing drug ties. 19 of the top 25 hitters in career OPS are Hall of Famers. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Soto are still playing. The only retired hitters among that group who aren’t in Cooperstown: Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Mark McGwire. Needless to say, they’re not excluded because their numbers weren’t good enough.
A .953 OPS is well above the general bar for induction. Most players who are in the top 100 are Hall of Famers. Landing among the top 75 makes a hitter a near-lock (barring PED connections). Even if Soto lost .050 points of OPS over the rest of his career — which seems unlikely — he’d still be above the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.
Any kind of precipitous drop shouldn’t happen soon. There are plenty of Hall of Famers whose production plummeted in the final three to five seasons of their careers. Even if Soto doesn’t avoid that fate, the short-term numbers are more likely to continue climbing than fall. He’s arguably at the beginning of his prime. This past season was probably the best full season of his career. He topped 40 homers for the first time, finished one RBI off his career high, and set a new best with 7.9 wins above replacement (bWAR). Soto’s rate stats were unquestionably better in the shortened 2020 season, but this was as effective as he’s been over any 162-game schedule.
Youth was one of the biggest selling points in his record-setting free agent trip. Very few hitters have been this productive through their mid-20s. Soto has 201 career homers, tied for seventh all time through a player’s age-25 season. He’s 15th in runs batted in through the same age. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances before their 26th birthday, Soto is 12th in on-base percentage. Of the 11 players above him, only Frank Thomas has played in the last 50 years. This kind of plate discipline so early in a hitter’s career is truly generational.
Mets Sign Juan Soto
Juan Soto is officially a New York Met. The team announced the signing on Wednesday evening after the star outfielder passed his physical. He’ll be introduced in a press conference tomorrow at Citi Field. Soto shattered contract records as the Winter Meetings began on Sunday evening, agreeing to a stunning 15-year, $765MM deal. Soto would be able to opt out of the deal after the 2029 season, though the Mets can prevent that by triggering an escalator that raises his salaries by $4MM annually from 2030-39. If they do so, he’d make at least $805MM over the next decade and a half.
Soto receives a whopping $75MM signing bonus. That’ll be followed by successive $46.875MM salaries for the first two seasons. He’ll make $42.5MM in 2027 before the salaries jump back to $46.875MM for 2028-29. The deal calls for $46MM annually for the final ten years. After the 2029 season, the Mets will need to decide whether to push Soto’s salaries to $50MM per season. If they decline, he could opt out of the remaining decade and $460MM. Soto also gets a full no-trade clause and escalators based on his MVP finishes.
Brokered by the Boras Corporation, the 26-year-old Soto’s deal is the largest contract in the history of professional sports, blowing away not only the $461MM net present value of the deal Shohei Ohtani landed with the Dodgers last winter but even the $700MM sticker price Ohtani signed for before accounting for that deal’s record-breaking deferrals. Soto’s $51MM average annual value eclipses the record for MLB players, which was previously held by Ohtani, by a significant margin as well.
Soto is the game’s first true $500MM player, $600MM player, $700MM player, and $50MM-per-year player, all in one epic contract. The deal calls to mind Boras’ ten-year, $252MM contract with the Rangers for Alex Rodriguez 24 years ago, announced at the Winter Meetings at the same Anatole Hotel in Dallas this one figures to be.
The Mets weren’t the only team willing to go to record-setting lengths to land Soto, as Heyman reports the Yankees’ final bid for the slugger clocked in at $760MM over 16 years. MassLive’s Sean McAdam, meanwhile, reports that the Red Sox offered Soto $700MM over 15 years. Each of those deals would have shattered all expectations entering the offseason; MLBTR predicted a 13 year, $600MM contract for Soto as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.
The Soto bidding was long believed to be the first true litmus test on how Mets owner Steve Cohen, the wealthiest in the sport, would proceed in a bidding war for a must-have player. The sale from the Wilpon family to Cohen was finalized just over four years ago, and while we’ve seen the Mets spend aggressively along the way, they’ve yet to truly flex their full financial might in this manner. The Mets did not pursue Aaron Judge when he was a free agent two offseasons ago, nor did they seriously pursue Ohtani last winter. They were involved in Yoshinobu Yamamoto‘s market, reportedly even offering the same $325MM guarantee he received in Los Angeles, but the West Coast Dodgers were typically perceived to have a geographic advantage there.
With regard to Soto, the stage was set for a Yankees-Mets bidding war — with presumptive interest from other teams — the minute Soto was traded from San Diego to the Bronx last December. In the end, the outcome that Mets fans have pined for since Cohen bought the club and that Yankees have feared since Soto hit the market proved true: Cohen refused to be denied, putting forth an offer that even the most aggressive prognosticators wouldn’t have envisioned entering the offseason.
Cohen’s purchase of the Mets created enough unease among other owners that during the last wave of collective bargaining negotiations, a fourth tier of penalization was added to the luxury tax setup. Teams exceeding the tax threshold by more than $60MM would be taxed at an 80% rate in year one, a 90% rate if exceeding that mark for a second straight season and a whopping 110% rate for a third straight offense. Colloquially referred to as the “Cohen Tax,” that penalty was ultimately more of a speed bump than a true roadblock for the Mets. They’ll be a third-time payor in 2025 — and presumably for years to come thereafter, thanks largely to this contract.
It’s not quite as basic as saying Soto’s contract itself will be taxed at 110% (that’d be a $56.1MM annual hit), but he’ll naturally thrust the Mets into the Cohen Tax threshold on a near annual basis, assuming the Mets surround him with other high-end players. They’re already paying Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo annual salaries of $34.1MM and $20.5MM, respectively, through at least 2030. RosterResouce projects that the Mets’ luxury obligations now sit just north of $251MM.
That’s “only” $10MM over the $241MM threshold, but with Soto now in the fold there’s no reason to expect they’ll let up. The club still seems likely to make a corner infield addition, whether that be a reunion with Pete Alonso or perhaps the addition of a third baseman who could allow Vientos to move off of the hot corner going forward. Additionally, the Mets are known to be in the market for at least one more starting pitcher after previously adding Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas to their rotation alongside incumbent starters Kodai Senga and David Peterson. It also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club target relief help to supplement a bullpen that saw a number of key pieces including Phil Maton, Drew Smith, and Brooks Raley depart for free agency.
The Mets will have plenty of resources with which to make those additions. Even after Soto’s record-breaking deal, they’re still roughly $95MM away from last year’s $336MM payroll, and the aforementioned $251MM luxury ledger is more than $100MM shy of last year’s $358MM figure. Historic as the Soto agreement is, it’s more of a launching point than a capstone with regard to what will be a precedent-shattering offseason under Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns.
Soto’s free agency has been one of the most anticipated in MLB history. The phenom has seemingly been destined for a record-breaking deal ever since he declined a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals during the 2022 season. Given the $54MM Soto went on to earn in his last two arbitration years, the Nationals’ offer ultimately equated to $386MM for 13 free agent years, a figure that Soto nearly doubled tonight. Soto’s prescient decision on the Nationals’ offer prompted a trade to the Padres. Already a career 152 wRC+ hitter entering the 2021 season, he’s been even better since then with a .279/.423/.520 slash line that’s been good for a 161 wRC+.
The massive deal secured the Mets one of the most talented hitters in the sport. Soto had a platform season for the ages in 2024 after being traded from the Padres to the Yankees, slashing .288/.419/.569 (180 wRC+) in 157 games while belting 41 homers and walking (18.1%) more than he struck out (16.7%). In an era of increased strikeout rates, it’s not just Soto’s elite power but his otherworldly plate discipline that causes him to stick out from the crowd. He’s recorded more unintentional walks than strikeouts in each of the past five seasons and has led the majors in unintentional walks three times throughout his career.
Soto’s 769 career unintentional walks land him the No. 11 spot on the active leaderboard after just seven seasons in the majors. That sensational batting eye figures to allow Soto to age much better than players who get to their value through elite speed and defense, which surely helped make the Mets (and other interested clubs) more willing to shatter records in order to land Soto’s services. Soto is so good at drawing walks that he has gained notoriety for his manner of taking a pitch, which sometimes prompts the Soto Shuffle.
It’s important to note that Soto made his MLB debut back in 2018 at just 19 years of age, allowing him to reach free agency at the rare age of 26. The best MLB superstars are occasionally paid through the age of 40, which in Soto’s case means the longest contract in MLB history at 15 years. Soto’s youth, plus his Hall of Fame track, make this deal possible.
Soto has accumulated 36.4 Baseball-Reference WAR through the age of 25, which ranks 17th all-time. Mike Trout is the only other active player on that list. Of the 15 others, 12 are in the Hall of Fame, another is a lock to get there in Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez would be in if not for steroid usage. The only reason Soto isn’t ranked higher is his below-average outfield defense, though that was roundly ignored by his free agent suitors given the $700MM+ offers.
One thing Soto has that his Hall of Fame peers did not (aside from free agency rights, of course) is Statcast. Modern-day GMs highly value Statcast metrics demonstrating how hard a player hits the ball, and Soto’s numbers regularly reside in the 99th percentile. It’s key evidence that Soto’s elite offense is sustainable for many years, even if his glovework is less desirable.
It also bears mentioning that the narrative of Soto being a poor defender has become somewhat overstated by his detractors. There’s no getting around the fact that he is a below-average defender on the whole, but he’s not yet reached the point where he’s an unmitigated liability in the outfield — nor do we know when or if he’ll get there. Defensive metrics can vary heavily on a year-to-year basis, but Soto has only had one truly dismal season in the eyes of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved. And looking at his seven big league seasons on the whole, Soto has been dinged for -15 DRS and -24 Outs Above Average.
On a yearly basis, he’s been somewhere in the range of -2 DRS and -3 OAA. He’s not likely to make any sizable gains, but he ought to be able to play a passable right field for the next several years. He may be lacking in range and doesn’t top the charts in terms of raw arm strength by any means, but Soto’s arm is quite accurate. Over the past two seasons, only Lane Thomas and Ian Happ have more outfield assists. Statcast ranked his throwing value in the 90th percentile of MLB outfielders. Soto might eventually require a move away from the outfield, but he could potentially have a stop at first base before eventually moving to a DH role. Ultimately, if teams thought his defense was as problematic as his most strident critics typically portray it to be, Soto probably wouldn’t have commanded a contract of this sheer magnitude.
Soto is set to enter the prime of his already illustrious career in a Mets uniform. He’ll patrol right field and pair with Lindor to create a frightening one-two punch that should offer the Mets a reasonable facsimile of the unbelievable partnership of Soto and Judge, which helped to carry the Yankees from an 82-80 showing in 2023 to a 94-win campaign and an AL pennant this past season. The Mets, for their part, were far closer to being a top team even before adding Soto; their 2024 season saw the club win 89 games and fight their way into the NLCS, where they fell to the eventual World Champion Dodgers in six games. In addition to Lindor, Soto will be protected in the lineup by the presence of fellow corner outfielder Brandon Nimmo and an intriguing group of youngsters like Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez. A reunion with Alonso remains possible, and the Mets will surely explore every avenue of the trade and free agent markets as they look to further augment the lineup.
Now that the load-bearing free agent of the offseason has finally been dislodged, a flurry of activity around the league is expected throughout the Winter Meetings in Dallas this week as free agents and trade candidates alike who had been slowed by Soto’s presence may begin to move. Fellow free agent corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander figure to see their markets pick up in a big way now that the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays are set to explore their various contingency plans for failing to land Soto.
Other high-priced free agents such as Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Alex Bregman could similarly see increased movement with the winter’s top dog no longer in the picture. They’ve all been linked to the Jays, Yankees and Red Sox — to varying extents. Certain high-priced pieces available on the trade market like Cody Bellinger and Nolan Arenado could start seeing additional action in the coming days. Bellinger specifically saw his potential market inextricably linked to the Soto bidding.
The Yankees, in particular, figure to be aggressive after coming up short. They’ve long been expected to be aggressive in their search for impact talent to replace Soto’s production in the event they came up short in a Subway Series bidding war. Hernandez, Bellinger, Burnes and Fried are all among the names who have come up in connection to the Bronx in recent weeks who seem more plausible as targets now that Soto has departed for Queens.
It could be years before we see another free-agent bidding of this nature — possibly decades, if the gap between Alex Rodriguez and Soto is representative of anything. But while the Soto talks have dominated the early stages of the 2024-25 offseason, his eventual decision isn’t a sign of things winding down but rather a catalyst to truly unleash the full scope of offseason drama. The first and most significant domino has fallen, but the offseason is just getting started.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Mets were signing Soto to a 15-year, $765MM deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the deal did not contain deferred money and could push beyond $800MM with escalators. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first to report the $75MM signing bonus. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the opt-out, while ESPN’s Jorge Castillo reported the opt-out override. Tim Healey of Newsday was first with the no-trade protection. Heyman reported the salary breakdown.
Yankees, Mets Reportedly Increase Soto Bids Beyond $700MM
After reports emerged last night that bidding for the services for free agent superstar Juan Soto could reach beyond the $700MM threshold, that possibility appears to have now come to pass. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that both the Yankees and Mets have recently pushed their offers to the $710-730MM range as the slugger’s free agency nears its conclusion. Heyman suggests that while it’s “believed” that the Mets have placed the higher bid of the two New York clubs, the deals appear to be within the same range. He goes on to add that there’s been no indication of the Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Dodgers being eliminated from the Soto sweepstakes to this point despite the record-setting offers from both New York clubs.
The 26-year-old phenom has long been expected to easily beat the record for net present value Shohei Ohtani‘s megadeal with the Dodgers set last winter, which is estimated to be in the range of $461MM after accounting for the pact’s heavy deferrals. That said, it’s still somewhat shocking that the bidding for Soto has soared high enough that beating the $700MM guarantee Ohtani received last winter before factoring in deferred money is on the table. It’s possible that Soto’s deal could include some deferred money of its own, of course, but even with that possibility in mind it seems increasingly likely that he’ll shatter not only expectations entering the offseason but all previous precedents for guaranteed and annual money for MLB contracts.
Soto is in position to shatter records for a reason, of course. The youngster is particularly attractive to clubs given the fact that he’s marketing his age-26 season in free agency this winter. That extreme youth is uncommon in free agency, especially for top talent, and it allowed right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to secure a record-breaking deal for starting pitchers last winter despite having never thrown a single pitch in MLB. By contrast, Soto is a four-time All Star and two-time MVP finalist who has never been less than 43% better than league average at the plate by measure of wRC+ during his career to this point. Soto’s combination of youth and track record hasn’t been seen in the majors since Alex Rodriguez‘s free agency more than two decades ago, and in that time teams have only grown to value youth even more highly.
Per Heyman’s report, all five known finalists for Soto’s services remain in the mix to land the superstar, who is generally expected to make his decision within the next day or two. Heyman suggests that the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have all offered Soto at least $600MM, with the Dodgers’ offer coming in as the lowest of the five by a substantial amount. Beyond that, though, Heyman notes that the other four clubs have made offers that are “believed” to be relatively close to each other, and it’s unclear which of those four clubs has made the highest bid to this point. What’s more, Heyman suggests that Soto won’t necessarily choose the highest bidder, though it’s unclear what might motivate Soto to take a lesser offer. The Mets and Yankees have generally been viewed as the favorites to land Soto by the industry throughout his free agency, but whether that perception aligns with his actual preferences remains a mystery. The Red Sox, for their part, reportedly pushed for an additional meeting with Soto’s camp earlier this week, though it’s unclear if that request was or will be granted before the star makes his decision.
Soto Bidding Could Approach $700MM
As the Juan Soto decision nears, the expected contract seemingly continues to climb. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the price could push to $700MM. Heyman suggests that the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays may all be near that mark. The Dodgers are also a finalist, but various reports have put them as the least likely of the quintet to land him.
On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that multiple teams had made offers at or above $600MM. Agent Scott Boras said at the time that Soto had begun to narrow the field, though he didn’t specify a timetable for his decision. Most reports indicate he’s likely to sign by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, perhaps as soon as this weekend.
According to Heyman, teams have continued to adjust their offers in recent days. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported last night that the Red Sox were hoping for a final meeting with Soto’s camp to get the outfielder to name the specific price at which he’d put pen to paper. It’s not clear if Soto would grant any team that sit-down.
Shohei Ohtani’s deal was initially reported as a 10-year, $700MM contract. The extreme nature of the deferrals in the Ohtani deal, which were reported a few days after he announced he was signing with the Dodgers, dramatically reduced the net present value. MLB valued the contract around $461MM for luxury tax purposes. That’s still an all-time record. Soto was unquestionably going to beat $461MM and widely expected to go well beyond $500MM. (MLBTR predicted a 13-year, $600MM contract at the beginning of the offseason.) Getting to $700MM without deferrals would shatter prior contractual precedents.
Ohtani’s $46.06MM annual salary — again adjusting for deferrals — is the record for average annual value. Bryce Harper’s 13-year contract is the longest free agent deal in history. Soto would likely need to break both records to get to $700MM — potentially on a 14-year deal at $50MM annually. It shouldn’t be much longer before we learn if the market will go to those heights.
Red Sox Hoping For Additional Meeting With Soto
By this time next week, there’s a good chance Juan Soto will have picked his destination. As the star outfielder weighs multiple offers at or above $600MM, the top of the market waits.
At least one team is hoping for another sit-down with Soto and agent Scott Boras. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Red Sox’s brass has expressed interest in another meeting at which Soto’s camp would name the price necessary to get a deal done. That’s an effort to avoid being unknowingly outbid at the end.
It seems the Sox are worried about the Mets in particular. Speier writes that Sox’s brass has heard rumors that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen has promised Boras that he’d beat the best offer made by any other team by $50MM. To be clear, Speier is not reporting on the veracity of that rumor itself. Speier is neither confirming nor denying that Cohen made such offer. The Globe’s report only mentions that the Sox are concerned enough that the rumor might be true that they’re hopeful of getting Soto and Boras to name a specific price.
It’s not clear if Boras and Soto have any interest in doing so. There’s value for Soto in playing teams’ uncertainties against each other. Relaying the specifics of every offer to each team in the race would eventually result in a highest bidder, but it’d also limit the possibility that one club goes well beyond whatever is on the table from the others.
There have seemingly been five legitimate suitors for Soto: the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Various reports have cast the Dodgers as a long shot. The general view is that Los Angeles entered the mix mostly to gauge whether Soto’s market might not materialize quite the way he’d envisioned. With multiple teams putting $600MM+ offers out there, that hasn’t been the case. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote last night that the Dodgers were unlikely to land him.
Speier confirms that the Red Sox recently upped their offer to $600MM. The Athletic reported on Tuesday that every team that still had a chance at Soto had hit or topped that mark. (That’s not necessarily a declaration that all five teams mentioned above had offered $600MM+, as it’s possible he has privately narrowed the field to exclude one or more of them.) Most observers still expect it to come down to one of the New York franchises, though the Sox and Jays have seemingly made full-fledged pushes to get themselves in the conversation.
One big spender that made little effort on Soto: the Phillies. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia brass never met with his camp. While the Phils haven’t shied away from big-ticket free agent pursuits, it seems they never believed they had a realistic chance to land Soto. Philadelphia owner John Middleton said a month ago that he felt they’d merely be used to drive up the bidding for Soto to sign with one of the New York teams (link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Whether or not that would’ve been the case, Gelb writes that the Phillies felt it best to prioritize other avenues they found more realistic.
Bidding For Juan Soto Has Reached At Least $600MM
The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.
With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.
Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.
While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.
That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.
In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.
Latest On Juan Soto
While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.
Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.
Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.
It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.
Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.
To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.
Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.
It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.
Teams Expected To Make Offers To Juan Soto This Week
The sweepstakes to land superstar free agent Juan Soto is set to enter its next phase, as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported this afternoon that teams are expected to begin sending offers to the outfielder’s camp this week. Olney adds that to this point in the process, Soto has been meeting with teams and allowing Soto and the officials of interested clubs to get to know each other. The Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all known to have met with Soto at this point. The Phillies have also been reported to be planning a meeting with Soto, while the Giants, Rays, and Royals are all known to be among the teams to have reached out to Soto as well, though no meetings between Soto and any of those clubs are publicly known to have occurred and the Royals already reportedly view the offseason’s top free agent as outside of their comfort zone.
Of course, that aforementioned list of teams is surely not exhaustive. As-of-yet unreported clubs have surely contacted and perhaps even met with Soto as he prepares to sign what figures to be the largest contract in MLB history in terms of net present value this winter. As a two-time MVP finalist and career .285/.421/.532 hitter who’s hitting the market ahead of his age-26 season, Soto stands as the rare free agent who would make sense for virtually any contention timeline and stand as an upgrade to all 30 ball clubs, leaving his market to be limited more by teams’ willingness to spend enough to land him rather than positional or competitive fit.
The general consensus around the game seems to be that the Yankees and Mets are the favorites for Soto’s services, as both deep-pocketed New York teams appear motivated as the Yankees look to retain their key addition from last offseason who helped take the club from missing the playoffs in 2023 to an AL pennant this past season while the Mets hope to build on a 2024 campaign that saw them reach the NLCS for the first time since 2015. Soto naturally has a place in the Yankees lineup as their incumbent right fielder, though he might make even more sense for a Mets club that could push Starling Marte to DH in order to accommodate the addition of Soto given the fact that the acquisition of Soto forced the Yankees to use Aaron Judge as their everyday center fielder last year.
That doesn’t mean the other teams in the mix should be counted out, however. The Phillies and Dodgers both already need outfield help this winter and could further bolster the already-excellent lineups that made them the class of the NL this year by landing Soto. The Blue Jays figure to be especially motivated after falling just short in last winter’s Ohtani sweepstakes and subsequently missing the playoffs in 2024, while the Red Sox appear ready to resume spending in accordance with their market size this winter after spending the past several winters on the periphery of free agency. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at all 30 clubs in the context of the Soto sweepstakes of Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
While Soto has emphasized the importance of team competitiveness in his decision-making and there have been questions about whether he may prefer a team on the east coast given his offseason homes in Fort Lauderdale, Florida and the Dominican Republic, the ultimate factor that figures to separate Soto’s suitors is money. With offers expected to be made over the course of the next week, it’s possible that previously-unknown suitors emerge as contenders for the star’s services or currently reported upon suitors fall behind in the bidding process. It’s also possible that the process begins to move quickly once offers begin to roll in; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that the belief around the game is that Soto could sign during or even before the Winter Meetings, which run from December 9-12 in Dallas next month.
The Best Fits For Juan Soto
Last offseason, MLBTR took extensive looks at how the market for each of the top free agents might shake out, providing those pieces to our Front Office subscribers. We're doing the same this winter, kicking things off with a look at the likely bidders for Juan Soto and where each stands with regard to payroll and the luxury tax, among other aspects that ought to be considered.
At this point, there's little need to chronicle Soto's greatness to this point in his career. In our Top 50 Free Agent rankings, I penned over 1000 words on Soto alone, outlining just some of the reasons he's rightly referred to as a "generational" talent (a term that perhaps is used a bit too cavalierly these days). To borrow a couple excerpts from that:
"It’s rare for a player to even make his big league debut at 19, let alone to immediately break out as a star. That’s precisely what Soto did, however, belting an opposite-field home run off Chad Green in his second big league plate appearance. One home run doesn’t make anyone a star, of course, but Soto was completely unfazed by MLB pitching and went on to post a .292/.406/.517 batting line and swat 22 homers all before turning 20. In the entire history of the game, no one as young as Soto has turned in a season that good. Soto’s 142 OPS+ in his rookie season is the best in MLB history (min. 300 plate appearances). Soto’s debut harkened back to Hall of Famer Mel Ott’s jaw-dropping 19-year-old rookie season with the New York Giants exactly 90 years prior."
That, of course, is just looking at his rookie year. Soto's only gotten better since then, recording more walks than strikeouts in five consecutive seasons. He belted a career-high 41 homers this past season while slashing .288/.419/.569. By measure of wRC+, he was 80% better than league average at the plate (and somehow still only his team's second-best hitter; we see you, Aaron Judge). Yet Soto and all of his career accolades are hitting the open market at just 26 years of age. Judge, by comparison, played his first full season at age 25. He was entering his age-31 season in free agency. Shohei Ohtani was entering his age-29 campaign. Free agents rarely hit the market this young, and it's feasible we haven't even seen the best version of Soto yet.
When it comes to contract expectations, throw precedent and norms out the window. If you're not willing to put down at least a decade -- and likely 12, 13, 14 or even 15 years -- you're not likely to get a seat at the table. (Though it's fun to at least think of a clean-payroll club offering an extreme AAV on a shorter-term deal with an opt-out; six years, $450MM anyone?)
We know most of the teams that have already met with Soto by now, but let's take a look at each and try to identify which clubs might emerge as the ever-popular "mystery team" based on their payroll, tax status, and other factors.
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Royals Have Shown Interest In Juan Soto
The Royals have reached out to Juan Soto this offseason, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It doesn’t appear talks got far, as Heyman unsurprisingly adds that Soto’s asking price is out of Kansas City’s comfort zone.
At the start of the offseason, Heyman reported that a pair of small-market teams were among 11 clubs to reach out to Soto. The Rays were quickly reported as one of those suitors, and it seems the Royals were the other. In any case, there’s nothing to suggest either Tampa Bay or Kansas City has shown more than cursory interest. The teams known to have met with Soto — the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers — are all big-market franchises. The Phillies hadn’t scheduled a meeting with Soto as of Tuesday, though they’re also expected to sit down with the star outfielder and agent Scott Boras at some point.
The Royals were surprisingly active spenders last winter. Kansas City committed upwards of $110MM in free agency, headlined by deals for Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Those contracts worked out incredibly well. Lugo finished second in AL Cy Young balloting. Wacha continued to post quality mid-rotation numbers. He opted out of the second season of his first K.C. contract before returning to the organization on a three-year, $51MM deal.
Kansas City’s biggest investment came on the eve of Spring Training, as they extended franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. on an 11-year deal that guaranteed him nearly $289MM. Witt turned in an MVP runner-up showing as Kansas City surprisingly snapped a nine-year playoff drought.
Witt’s contract is easily the biggest deal in franchise history. Soto’s asking price is surely more than double that. While they’re not going to get the market’s top free agent, the Royals could be involved on anyone else in the outfield class. Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill and Jurickson Profar are candidates for three- or four-year contracts. It’d be a surprise if anyone from that group reached nine figures, though Santander has an outside chance. K.C.’s corner outfield tandem of MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe is very weak for a contender, making that an obvious area for the front office to upgrade.