Juan Soto

The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.

With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.

Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.

While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.

That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.

In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.

While we’ve started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both coming off the board this week, we’ve yet to see a prominent bat come off the board. Some of that is just the naturally slow pace of MLB’s free agency structure, but there’s also surely an element of Juan Soto holding things up to an extent. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this will be a protracted free agent saga that lingers well into the new year.

Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported earlier this week that five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There’s been some back-and-forth reporting as to whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, that quintet appears to be the top set of bidders for Soto at the moment.

Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving, so even if one of those clubs hasn’t yet submitted a formal offer just yet, it’s likely only a matter of hours before said offer is presented. Per Blum, there’s a growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year’s Winter Meetings, which take place from Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.

It should be noted that the current wave of offers being submitted is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With any free agent of this magnitude, there will be plenty of back-and-forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic tweets that this initial wave of offers is considered “preliminary,” with an additional round of offers likely coming in next week. Talks will intensify as teams are weeded out in the run-up to the Winter Meetings. Kuty, like Blum, suggests that landmark offseason event as a likely endpoint to Soto’s free agency.

Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. That might’ve been true even before Los Angeles struck their five-year deal with Snelll last night — one that guarantees him $182MM (with some deferred salary but also a huge up-front $52MM signing bonus). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported several weeks back that while the Dodgers will be in the mix they’re not expected to chase Soto at all costs. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered a similar thinking last night in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain apprised of where Soto’s bidding lands, they could also be simply trying to drive up the price for more serious bidders in New York, Boston and Toronto.

To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Red Sox are indeed quite serious in their pursuit of Soto. They’ve sought to sell Soto on the organization’s history of prominent left-handed hitters who’ve taken advantage of Fenway Park’s Green Monster and also enlisted franchise icons Pedro Martinez and David Ortiz to pitch the free agent slugger on the team’s history of touted stars from Soto’s native Dominican Republic.

Meanwhile, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don’t view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either-or scenario. Even if they succeeded in landing Soto, the Sox would do so in simultaneous pursuit of a top-end starter. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy already signaled a willingness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don’t view the $241MM tax threshold as any sort of hard cap. They’re currently $70MM shy of that level, per RosterResource’s estimates.

It’s not yet clear whether any other clubs could jump into the mix late in the bidding process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier in the winter that he didn’t mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies have yet to even speak to Boras about Soto specifically. The Giants were an oft-speculated suitor heading into the winter, but they’ve not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated they may actually scale back payroll rather than spend as aggressively as some anticipated.