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East Notes: Phillies, Red Sox, Nationals

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This doesn’t exactly rate as a surprise, but third baseman Maikel Franco’s time with the Phillies is nearing an end, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer observes. Although Franco has had a stranglehold on the third base position in Philly since his career began in earnest in 2015, the former high-end prospect has clearly fallen out of favor this year. The club demoted him to Triple-A earlier in the season, and though he has since returned, Franco hasn’t gotten his job back. With the Phillies in a heated battle for a playoff spot, they’ve mostly turned to Scott Kingery, Brad Miller and Sean Rodriguez at the hot corner over the past several weeks. It’s understandable the team has all but given up on Franco, who simply hasn’t provided much value since he burst on the scene as a rookie. The 27-year-old has posted minus-0.3 fWAR in 392 plate appearances this season, thanks in no small part to a weak .239/.301/.419 batting line. Franco figures to earn more than his current $5.2MM salary in arbitration over the winter, so it seems quite possible the Phillies will non-tender him.

More from Philadelphia and a couple other East Coast cities…

  • After firing president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski on Sunday, the Red Sox are in the market for a new leader of that department. However, it’s not a lock Dombrowski’s successor will have the same title, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. Dombrowski was the first executive in franchise history to earn president of baseball ops honors, and the club might not be as eager to go that route again this time. The Red Sox could instead name a general manager and have that person report to team president Sam Kennedy, Bradford notes.
  • Injured Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki hasn’t been in the club’s lineup since Sept. 5, and that’s not going to change “for at least a few more days,” Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. Manager Dave Martinez said Thursday that Suzuki, who has been dealing with right elbow inflammation, still hasn’t returned to throwing. Yan Gomes has caught every game in Suzuki’s absence, but the untested Raudy Read will draw into the lineup sometime over the weekend, per Dougherty. Between Gomes and Suzuki, the former has been the better defender this year. On the other hand, Suzuki (.260/.319/.473 in 301 PA) has outhit Gomes (.210/.310/.352 over 306 PA) by a significant margin.
  • An MRI revealed that Phillies outfielder Corey Dickerson suffered a bruised navicular bone in his left foot Wednesday, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer relays. That may sound worse than it is, as the Phillies don’t believe Dickerson would be at risk of doing further damage to his foot by playing. It’ll be a “pain management issue” for the rest of the season, though, according to manager Gabe Kapler. Dickerson’s both a key member of the playoff-contending Phillies’ offense and a pending free agent, meaning it would behoove both parties to make sure he’s healthy enough to take the field. The 30-year-old has enjoyed a strong platform season between Pittsburgh and Philly, having batted .304/.341/.565 with a dozen homers in 279 PA.

Quick Hits: Astros, Correa, Suzuki, Haniger, Buxton

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The Astros will move forward with a four-man rotation for the remaining 18 games of the season, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Between Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Wade Miley, Houston’s club features perhaps the most formidable rotation in baseball, and the team will start gearing up for postseason play by trotting out what projects to be its playoff rotation. As McTaggart notes, the schedule lines up such that the fifth spot in the rotation will only come up twice more, leaving each of the Stros’ four starters to make four more appearances while manager A.J. Hinch will have to patch together two bullpen days. Meanwhile, lefty Framber Valdez will pitch out of the bullpen for the last few weeks of the year. The young lefty has toggled between the rotation and the bullpen throughout the year, and results have been decidedly better as a reliever: he’s posted a 3.90 ERA out of the bullpen, compared to an unsightly 7.07 mark as a starter.

Here are some other notes from around the baseball landscape…

  • Also from Houston, injured Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, currently on the injured list experiencing back soreness, took batting practice at Minute Maid Park today, tweets McTaggart—the first time he’s done so since the injury. He also took ground balls on the field, indicating that the 24-year-old could embark on a rehab assignment in the next few days. However, it’s worth mentioning that the Astros’ two active minor-league affiliates could be eliminated from postseason play before Correa can join them, in which case the star shortstop would have to settle for live batting practice. All things considered, it’s a positive sign that one of the team’s cornerstones could return in time for the postseason.
  • Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki underwent an MRI Sunday morning after feeling some discomfort in his right elbow last night, per the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty. In a later update, Dougherty tweets that the MRI showed nothing more than inflammation in the elbow, leaving Suzuki day-to-day. Presumably, Suzuki will be good to go for the beginning of the Nats’ series in Minnesota. Suzuki missed Sunday’s series finale against the Braves and he will enjoy an off day Monday before kicking off a series against the Twins on Tuesday. Suzuki, who’s slugged 16 home runs this year, has combined with the Yan Gomes to form a solid catching duo for the playoff-hopeful Nationals. It seems that the Nationals got the best possible news regarding Suzuki’s elbow, which shouldn’t necessitate an extended absence for the veteran.
  • The chances of Mariners star outfielder Mitch Haniger returning this season look to be fading, tweets Greg Johns of MLB.com. The 28-year-old received a second opinion on his strained lower back, which set back his recovery from a ruptured testicle suffered earlier this year. Those injuries have limited the All-Star to just 63 games this year, a number that likely won’t budge after that second opinion yielded no new information. It seems that at this point, there would need to be a unexpected breakthrough in order for Haniger to see the field again in 2019.
  • Twins center fielder Byron Buxton, who hasn’t made a plate appearance since August 1 thanks to a left shoulder injury, may not hit again this season, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters including Dan Hayes of the Athletic. The oft-injured outfielder is set to travel to California to visit a shoulder specialist. While we’ll have to wait and see what comes of that, Buxton may be henceforth limited to a role as a pinch-runner and late-inning defensive substitute. It’s an unfortunate development given Buxton’s progress as a hitter: in 2019, he’s enjoyed the best offensive season of his career, slashing .262/.314/.513 with ten home runs in just 87 games.

 

Injury Notes: Harper, Springer, Suzuki, Piscotty

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After being hit in the right hand with a Steven Matz pitch on Friday, Bryce Harper sat out the Phillies’ 5-0 win over the Mets today and could also miss Sunday’s game.  X-rays were negative on the injury and Harper told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen and other reporters that he would “be fine,” though he was frustrating at having to miss any time at all during the pennant race.  “Really tough to take a day [off], but I need to do what I need to do,” Harper off.  The Phils’ victory moved them three games behind the Cubs for the last NL wild card berth, and in the midst of such a tight race, certainly can’t afford to miss one of their top players.

While Harper hasn’t quite posted the type of superstar-level numbers you might expect after signing his much-ballyhooed 13-year, $330MM contract last offseason, he has been a thoroughly productive player in his first Phillies season, hitting .254/.372/.497 with 30 homers over an even 600 plate appearances while also contributing strong defense.

More on some key players who may or may not be close to returning to action…

  • George Springer also didn’t factor into today’s play, though Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) that the outfielder was available off the bench in Houston’s 2-1 win over Seattle, and would hopefully be back in the lineup on Sunday.  Springer suffered a minor concussion after an ugly-looking collision with the outfielder wall on Tuesday, which resulted in the Astros star being carted off the field.  Fortunately, the injury was less serious than it appeared, and Springer is set to resume what has been another All-Star season.
  • Kurt Suzuki will see a doctor after suffering a potential right elbow injury in tonight’s game, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets.  The Nationals catcher felt pain after making a throw to second base in the seventh inning, and was replaced by a pinch-hitter in the top of the eighth.  Suzuki has hit .260/.319/.473 with 16 homers over 301 plate appearances in his first season as a National, splitting time with (and providing much more offense than) Yan Gomes.  Rookie backstop Raudy Read is the only other catcher on Washington’s 40-man roster if Suzuki has to miss any time.
  • Athletics outfielder Stephen Piscotty told Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle that he is close to beginning pool therapy on his injured right ankle, and will then further test the injury before determining any next steps.  Piscotty believes he can return before the end of the season, which is perhaps not as positive a development as it seems since there hadn’t really been any thought that Piscotty’s high ankle sprain could cost him the remainder of the 2019 campaign.  After hitting the IL on August 25, the outfielder is still wearing a walking boot.

NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals

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Nolan Arenado projects to head up the 2019-20 free agent class, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post finds similarities with Matt Holliday’s departure from the franchise a decade ago.  Holliday explained to Saunders why he found the Rockies’ final contract extension offer “disappointing,” while former GM Dan O’Dowd also provided his contrasting recollection of the situation.

  • Holliday also took part in a fascinating lunch with members of the St. Louis Cardinals coaching crew recently. Manager Mike Shildt, bench coach Oliver Marmol and new hitting coach Jeff Albert shared a chance meal with Holliday at the Cardinals’ training facility in Jupiter, Florida where Holliday spends his offseason. Per the Athletic’s Bernie Miklasz, the foursome spent their lunch session talking hitting approaches, data usage and baseball philosophy. Specifically, Shildt hopes to improve the Cardinals contact rates this season, hence the hiring of Albert, who specializes in helping players refine their approach at the plate. One interesting exercise Albert used in his former post with the Astros involved making hitters verbally identify a pitch as a ball or a strike during batting practice. With repetition, Houston players improved in their ability to accurately differentiate balls from strikes. Shildt began shifting the Cardinals to a more contact-oriented approach when he replaced Mike Matheny last season, but this year he’ll have reinforcements in his efforts to further decrease the Cardinals’ strikeout rate.
  • Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.

Nationals Sign Kurt Suzuki

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Nov. 20: The Nationals have formally announced Suzuki’s two-year deal.

Nov. 19, 11:10am: Suzuki’s contract is a two-year, $10MM deal that’ll pay him $4MM in 2019 and $6MM in 2020, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

10:24am: The Nationals have agreed to a two-year contract with free-agent catcher Kurt Suzuki, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The deal is pending a physical. Suzuki is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

Kurt Suzuki | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Long a sturdy option, the veteran Suzuki took his offensive game to new heights over the past couple of seasons, hitting at a .276/.341/.485 clip with 31 homers over the course of 697 plate appearances while sharing time with Tyler Flowers.

Unlike many players who experience a significant jump in power production, the 35-year-old Suzuki hasn’t simply “sold out” in terms of sacrificing his typically excellent contact rate for some additional pop. He’s fanned at just an 11.8 percent clip over the past two years — the ninth-lowest among all MLB hitters in that time (min. 600 plate appearances). Suzuki upped his hard-hit rate and homer-to-fly-ball ratio in significant fashion and will look to carry that improved production over to a return stint with the Nationals, for whom he played in 2012-13.

In Suzuki, the Nats will likely find an offensive upgrade over the production (or lack thereof) that they received from Matt Wieters over a previous two-year deal of his own. Getting some help behind the plate was imperative for the Nats, who saw Wieters and a slew of backup options combine to bat just .211/.290/.319 through 1259 plate appearances in 2017-18. Even with some regression in his bat — Nationals Park, notably, is not as hitter-friendly as SunTrust Park — Suzuki should be able to provide an uptick in offensive output at the position.

Defensively, Suzuki hasn’t generated the same level of results. His throwing improved with the Braves after a poor two-year stretch with Minnesota in that regard, but Suzuki’s 21.3 percent caught-stealing rate (25-for-117) over the past two seasons still checks in well below the league average of about 27.5 percent. To Suzuki’s credit, Baseball Prospectus has graded him among the best in the game at blocking pitches in the dirt over the past two seasons, but B-Pro has also rated his framing skills to be below-average in each season dating back to 2008.

It’s not yet clear if Suzuki will represent the Nationals’ sole addition at catcher. Solid as his bat was with the Braves, Suzuki averaged 85 games caught between the two seasons and hasn’t topped 100 games behind the dish since serving as the Twins’ primary backstop in 2015. Pedro Severino, Spencer Kieboom and Raudy Read represent the organization’s other three catching options on 40-man roster, and while any could conceivably serve as a backup to Suzuki, none has experienced big league success to date. Suzuki’s excellent production in 2017-18 should assure him of a prominent role in the Washington lineup, but the rest of the outfit still looks uncertain.

The addition of Suzuki is the third notable pickup in what has been an active offseason for Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo and his front office. The Nats have already acquired righty Kyle Barraclough from the Marlins in exchange for international bonus allotments, and Washington also rolled the dice on a one-year deal with former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal, who’ll be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2019. Of course, the biggest question surrounding the Nats will be whether they retain former NL MVP Bryce Harper in free agency or if they let him sign with another organization. Certainly, the money promised to Suzuki on this new contract won’t stand as any real impediment to those efforts, but the Nats have holes to fill in the rotation and possibly at second base, as well.

As for the Braves, they won’t receive compensation for the loss of Suzuki, and they’ll now have to watch the former fan and clubhouse favorite suit up for one of their top division rivals. Atlanta already extended Flowers through the 2019 season, but it seems quite likely that they’ll be adding a catcher of some note to step up and handle a significant chunk  — if not the vast majority — of playing time for the 2019 season.

Suzuki checked in 46th on MLBTR’s ranking of the Top 50 free agents this offseason, with an estimated two-year pact worth a total of $8MM. In our corresponding Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 3.87 percent of respondents correctly guessed that he’d return to the Nats.

Market Chatter: Greinke, Suzuki, Eovaldi, Reds, Nats, Phils

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The Diamondbacks are “aggressively shopping” righty Zack Greinke, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). With $95.5MM of salary still due over the next three years, he’s an expensive option. But the deal is at least cabined in length, and the Snakes have a good shot at getting out from under most of it. (Alternatively, the club might be able to pay down a larger portion and recoup some talent in a swap — or go in the other direction and include additional talent to make the whole contract go away.) It’s still largely unclear how things will shake out, but the fact that the Arizona organization is looking for a taker certainly makes a trade seem quite plausible.

Here’s the latest chatter on the rest of the market:

  • It is a testament to veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki that he has been re-signed, re-acquired, or extended by three of the four organizations he has played for. One of those, the Athletics, could have designs on a third stint. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, there has already been some discussion between the Oakland club and the 35-year-old free agent. Suzuki has never been more productive at the plate than he was over the past two years with the Braves, when he turned in a cumulative .276/.341/.485 slash with 31 home runs in 697 plate appearances. Slusser also notes that reliever Shawn Kelley remains a possibility to return, with four other teams also inquiring about securing his services.
  • Nathan Eovaldi’s health is a major factor in his free agency. Though he’s only 28 years of age, the righty has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries and required another elbow procedure before making it back to the mound in 2018. Of course, the results were quite promising, and he has now also received a strong endorsement from his surgeon today, as Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. Dr. Christopher Ahmad says that, after conducting an extensive examination, he “would consider [Eovaldi] in the same category of somebody who has a healthy arm.” While any signing team will want to take a look for itself, it’s obviously quite a notable opinion to receive at the outset of free agency.
  • The Reds would surely love to land Eovaldi or another higher-end arm, though it’s still questionable whether they’ll dabble in that end of the market. What is clear, president of baseball operations Dick Williams said in a radio interview, is that the club hopes to find a pair of new pitchers — likely starters (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Getting the right arms won’t just mean waiting to see what shakes loose at a cheap price, says Williams. Rather, the club intends “to be in front of these agents and these other teams talking more aggressively.” Sure enough, Jon Heyman of Fancred says the Reds have engaged with the Mariners (James Paxton), Indians (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco), and Yankees (Sonny Gray). With the Cinci org said to be hesitant to move its best assets, getting the desired arms could mean exploring some creative trades. That said, Williams shot down recent chatter surrounding purported Padres interest in star Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez. “Just to sort of nip that in the bud, I’ll tell you that rumor is unfounded,” said Williams.
  • It’s also clear that the Nationals are on the lookout for starters, though here also it’s hard to know just where the team may focus. As I discussed recently in setting forth the team’s outlook for the 2018-19 offseason, there are an abundance of possibilities at this point. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post provides some insight into the club’s thinking while ticking through the options. She notes that the Nats “think highly” of free agent Dallas Keuchel — the match we predicted when we broke down our Top 50 Free Agents. That’s not to say, of course, that he’s a uniquely clear fit in D.C. As Janes explains, the organization still seems likely to canvass the market, though it seems reasonable to anticipate that it’ll come away with at least one significant new hurler.
  • Staying in the division, it’s worth looking back at a post we missed at the time. Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported recently that the Phillies are quite likely to deal away third baseman Maikel Franco. Indeed, it seems there’s a reasonable match already under contemplation with the Padres. Of course as noted above, the Friars clearly are interested in looking around the rest of the market before pulling the trigger on a deal for Franco. The Phils are also said to be willing to discuss Cesar Hernandez, though he seems much less likely to be shipped out. It’ll be interesting to see how everything will unfold in Philadelphia, as the team is known to be chasing some of the biggest names on the market but also has some less consequential moves that it could contemplate pulling off first.

NL Notes: Correa, Arenado, Suzuki, Mattingly

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If you haven’t yet come across this recent profile of former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa, via SI’s Ben Reiter, then you’ll certainly want to give it a read. The analytical guru ended up in federal prison after impermissibly accessing the computer systems of the Astros. While he’s still mostly remaining silent on details of that stunning episode, Correa offers a fascinating glimpse into his time behind bars.

The latest from the National League:

  • While it’s hard to see the 2018 campaign as anything but a success for the Rockies, the organization faces some tough decisions in the offseason to come. One of those involves franchise cornerstone Nolan Arenado, who is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. As Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports, extension scenarios have yet to be discussed by team and player. Arenado’s arb salary will force the sides to the bargaining table, but it’s not yet clear whether there’ll be a clear path to a long-term deal. It is certainly possible to imagine a trade scenario, though that’d be a tough call to make for the organization. For his part, Arenado says he loves playing in Colorado and anticipates remaining with the organization, but does acknowledge that “things can get a little iffy because of the business side of it.”
  • As he wraps up his contract with the Braves, backstop Kurt Suzuki tells Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link) that he’d like to find a way back into the fold. The Atlanta organization has already struck a deal to retain Tyler Flowers, who has combined with Suzuki to form a solid and cost-effective duo. Continuing that situation surely holds some appeal, though it’s also quite reasonable to expect that the Braves front office will look into the acquisition of a top-tier option behind the dish. [RELATED: 2018-19 Market Snapshot: Catcher]
  • Even as the Marlins make some changes to their coaching staff, they haven’t given indication that they’ll replace skipper Don Mattingly in his post. That said, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that there hasn’t been any effort on the part of the team to extend Mattingly’s contract, which is entering its final season. It’s certainly possible that’ll still come to pass, though it would hardly be surprising if the club preferred instead to maintain the status quo.

Braves Select Chris Stewart

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The Braves announced today that they’ve selected the contract of veteran backstop Chris Stewart. Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution first indicated that the veteran backstop was returning to the Majors (via Twitter). Stewart has been playing at Triple-A since being outrighted earlier this season.

The reason for the promotion seems to be an injury to catcher Kurt Suzuki, which he sustained last night upon being hit on the elbow/triceps area by a fastball from Pirates righty Clay Holmes. Fortunately, the Atlanta organization announced earlier today that Suzuki was cleared of a fracture and has been diagnosed only with a left triceps contusion. Whether a stint on the DL will be required is not yet known, but if one is deemed necessary, it doesn’t seem that it’ll come today. Outfielder Michael Reed was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett to open roster space for Stewart’s return.

Stewart, 36, rarely strikes out but has never hit much in the majors and has struggled in particular since the start of the 2016 season. He’s slashing only .209/.287/.269 this year in 152 Triple-A plate appearances with Gwinnett. Still, Stewart is regarded as a sturdy, defensive-minded reserve option to have on hand and will be trusted to support Tyler Flowers as needed while Suzuki is unavailable. He’s gone 10-for-27 (37 percent) in halting stolen bases at the Triple-A level this season and has a solid track record in terms of pitch framing.

Braves Extend Kurt Suzuki Through 2018

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The Braves have signed catcher Kurt Suzuki to a one-year deal.  MLB.com’s Mark Bowman initially reported (Twitter link) that the two sides were finalizing a new contract, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reporting that the deal will pay Suzuki $3.5MM in 2018.  Suzuki is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

Suzuki, who turns 34 in October, came to Atlanta last winter on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM in guaranteed money.  He more than delivered on that agreement, producing a career-high 18 homers as well as a .271/.343/.525 slash line over 287 plate appearances.  Remarkably, Suzuki has an .868 OPS both at home and on the road, so his unexpected breakout at the plate can’t be entirely chalked up to the Braves’ move into hitter-friendly SunTrust Park.

Suzuki has markedly improved his hard-hit ball rate and his contact rate for pitches outside the strike zone, and his .255 Isolated Slugging mark is the third-best of any catcher with at least 275 PA this season (just one percentage point ahead of fourth-place Gary Sanchez).  Suzuki’s defense continues to garner below-average grades as per StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus, though that is a tradeoff the Braves are willing to make given Suzuki’s bat; it also doesn’t hurt that battery-mate Tyler Flowers is one of the league’s top defensive catchers.

Between Suzuki and Flowers, the Braves have generated 4.4 fWAR from the catcher position this season, more than any other team in baseball save the Buster Posey-powered Giants.  Atlanta has a $4MM club option on Flowers that seems like a no-brainer to be exercised, so the Braves head into next season looking very strong behind the plate.

Rosenthal notes that talks between Suzuki and the Braves had been ongoing “for weeks” about a new contract, so the catcher was seemingly pretty unlikely to ever hit the open market.  Still, teams looking for catching help this winter now have one less ’plan B’ type of option behind the three backstops (Jonathan Lucroy, Welington Castillo, Alex Avila) who are bound to attract the most attention amongst free agent catchers.

Free Agents That Have Boosted Their Stock On One-Year Deals

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With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.

Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:

  • Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
  • Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
  • Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
  • Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
  • Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
  • Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in  recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
  • Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
  • Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
  • Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
  • Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.

Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.

Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.

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