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Lane Thomas

Nationals Place Lane Thomas On Injured List With Grade 2 MCL Sprain

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3:12pm: It’s a Grade 2 sprain, manager Davey Martinez announced to the Nationals beat (X link via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com). While not a worst-case scenario, that points to an absence of some note for the Nats’ everyday right fielder.

12:56pm: The Nationals announced Wednesday that they’ve placed outfielder Lane Thomas on the 10-day injured list due to an MCL sprain in his left knee. Infielder Trey Lipscomb has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester in his place. Andrew Golden of the Washington Post first reported that Lipscomb would be called up if Thomas required a trip to the injured list after departing last night’s game with the injury.

Thomas sustained the injury last night on a steal of second base (video link). After a somewhat awkward feet-first slide into the bag, he rolled to his side in obvious discomfort. He tried to stand and was initially unable to put weight on the leg, though he eventually was able to stand and walk off the field with the team’s training staff. The Nats haven’t yet provided a timetable for Thomas’ recovery, nor have they specified the extent of the sprain.

The 28-year-old Thomas has had a rough start to his season at the plate, hitting just .184/.250/.253 in 96 trips to the plate — a far cry from last year’s career-high 28 home runs and breakout .268/.315/.468 showing. He’s actually cut his strikeout rate from 25.8% to 20.8% and upped his walk rate from 5.3% to 8.3% thus far. Much of Thomas’ struggle seems related to a .212 average on balls in play that sits 91 points shy of the career .303 mark he carried into the season, though it can’t all be chalked up to bad luck. He’s already hit seven infield flies this season, nearly halfway to last year’s total of 16. Those virtually automatic outs are naturally going to suppress his BABIP.

When Thomas has managed to reach base, he’s been exceptional. His 11 stolen bases (in 12 attempts) rank second in the majors, trailing only Milwaukee’s Brice Turang and Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz (both at 12). It’s an unexpected development from a player who has always had good speed but had never stolen more than 20 bags in a season, which he did just last season.

The injury to Thomas opens the door for more outfield reps for veterans Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario. They’ll likely flank center fielder Jacob Young on a regular basis while Thomas is on the mend for a yet-to-be-determined period of time. Of course, all eyes will be on top prospect James Wood, who has crushed Triple-A pitching at a .303/.418/.474 clip through his first 91 plate appearances this season.

It’s feasible that the 21-year-old Wood — widely considered to be among the sport’s 10 to 20 best overall prospects — could get a look in the big leagues sooner than later. That’ll be all the more tempting for the Nats if Thomas is slated to miss significant time. If he’s only expected to be on the shelf for a couple weeks, however, the Nats could give Wood everyday at-bats in Triple-A for a bit longer. Winker has been excellent in left field, although if the Nats wanted to free up playing time for Wood on the big league roster, it wouldn’t be that difficult. Rosario, Joey Gallo and designated hitter Joey Meneses have all struggled greatly at the plate thus far. Moving Winker to DH to clear a corner outfield spot could happen at some point even if Thomas is back in the fold in relatively short order.

Rizzo: Nationals Have Eight Suitors For Jeimer Candelario

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo made an appearance on SiriusXM’s Front Office on MLBNetwork Radio this afternoon, where he discussed Washington’s deadline plans with hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette. As relayed by Bowden, Rizzo provided an update on the market for third baseman Jeimer Candelario, telling the duo that the club has eight teams in on the Nationals’ top trade chip. Rizzo further indicated that the club would “move fast” in getting a deal done once they’re offered the “right player” in exchange for Candelario’s services.

That the Nationals intend to move Candelario is hardly a surprise. He came in at #2 overall as the top position player on MLBTR’s recent update to our Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates, with both the Marlins and Angels known to have interest in his services. SNY’s Andy Martino also reported today that the Yankees have interest.

It’s not hard to see why Candelario has drawn such interest, as has paired excellent third base defense with a 121 wRC+ in 98 games this season. In addition to his quality defense at the hot corner, Candelario also has experience in the majors at first base. With Cody Bellinger now off the trade market, that makes Candelario the likely best player available at both infielder corners. Speculatively speaking, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Astros each could use help at the infield corners.

Rizzo also discussed the availability of right-hander Kyle Finnegan and outfielder Lane Thomas, who clocked in at #37 and #41 on our Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates list, respectively. Bowden relays that Rizzo indicated Finnegan has drawn interest from other clubs ahead of the deadline, and it’s easy to see why. Finnegan is controllable through 2025 and has been a solid arm in the Nationals’ bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020. Finnegan’s career 3.35 ERA and 4.10 FIP are right in line with his 3.07 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 44 innings of work this season as the Nationals’ top option for closing out games.

Thomas, who is under team control through the end of the 2025 season, has slashed a solid .286/.333/.474 in 104 games this season with a wRC+ of 116 while swiping 12 bases in 14 attempts, is not a player Rizzo appears particularly inclined to move, with Bowden relaying that the impetus to move Thomas would be help at a position of greater need than the outfield, where the club sports top prospects James Wood, Robert Hassell, Dylan Crews, and Elijah Green.

Twins Eyeing Bullpen Help, Right-Handed Bats

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The Twins are the only team in the AL Central above .500, and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey unsurprisingly tells Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic that they’ll accordingly operate as buyers at this year’s deadline. Bullpen help and right-handed bats are the primary areas of focus for Minnesota between now and next Tuesday’s deadline.

One club the Twins have spoken to has both to offer. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News tweets that the Twins have talked with the Nationals, who have been scouting Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul. The Nats are just one of many teams the Twins have spoken too, of course, but the presence of outfielder Lane Thomas and surely available relievers like Kyle Finnegan present some obvious fits.

Falvey suggested that the Twins will be in the market for more “complementary” pieces, which might take someone like Thomas off the table, though as a lefty-mashing outfielder with multiple seasons of club control remaining beyond the current year, he’s an on-paper fit at the very least.

Falvey noted, however, that he’s amenable to trading for rental players. The trade market figures to have plenty of righty-swinging options who fit that bill — Randal Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and Adam Duvall potentially among them. (Canha has a 2024 option.)

The Twins are hitting just .219/.293/.369 against left-handed pitching this season, thanks in no small part to a glut of left-handed-hitting outfielders that at one point looked likely to lead to an offseason trade. That never materialized, however.

[Related: Twins’ Outfielders Drawing Trade Attention]

Many of the Twins’ offseason acquisitions who were added with an eye toward bolstering the lineup against southpaws have fallen shy of expectation in that regard. Christian Vazquez, Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor all have some past success against lefties, but none has been more than average against southpaws in 2023. Kyle Farmer has hit lefties well but not up to his prior standards.

Incumbent righty bats like Byron Buxton and the previously optioned (and now injured) Jose Miranda, meanwhile, have struggled against southpaws. Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco have hit lefties well, but both are on sitting alongside Miranda on the injured list. Polanco has been out since early June. Lewis hit the IL in early July and isn’t expected back until next month.

Similarly, the Twins are missing some key contributors in the bullpen. Left-hander Caleb Thielbar has quietly become an excellent setup man since his 2020 return to the big leagues after a five-year absence. The 36-year-old has pitched to a 3.10 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate since 2020 but has just 10 1/3 innings this year due to a pair of oblique injuries.

Brock Stewart, another diamond-in-the-rough find for the Twins, returned to the Majors for the first time since 2019 this year and has posted a 0.70 ERA and 35.4% strikeout rate for the Twins. However, he’s been out since late July with an elbow issue. Stewart threw his first bullpen session today and will throw another Saturday, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (Twitter link), but it’s not yet clear just when he’ll be back in the Twins’ bullpen. The absence of both Thielbar and Stewart was felt last night when the Twins’ relief corps squandered a four-run lead and strong start from Pablo Lopez in a game they eventually dropped to the Mariners by a score of 9-7.

Who Could The Nationals Trade At The Deadline?

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This year’s trade deadline seems like it has the potential to be unique, with very few clear sellers. The expanded playoffs and weak Central divisions mean that there are only five teams that are more than eight games out of a playoff spot at the All-Star break.

One of those five clubs is in Washington, as the Nationals have been rebuilding in recent years. Stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Juan Soto have been flipped in deadline deals over the past two seasons, which unsurprisingly has led to them being one of the few noncompetitive clubs here in 2023. Their 36-54 record has them in last in the National League East and they’re 13 games back in the Wild Card race.

The Nats therefore stand out as one of the few clear sellers at this point, with just over three weeks until the August 1 deadline. They no longer have superstars like those mentioned above, but there are still some players that should attract attention.

Rental Players

Jeimer Candelario

Candelario, 29, is one of the most straightforward trade candidates in the league. He’s an impending free agent having a great season on a team that’s clearly in a position to sell. MLBTR recently listed the top 50 trade candidates for this summer and Candelario took the #2 spot, trailing only Lucas Giolito of the White Sox.

The third baseman was seemingly breaking out in Detroit not too long ago, putting up solid numbers both in 2020 and 2021. He produced a .278/.356/.458 batting line over those campaigns for a 125 wRC+ and was considered around league average defensively, leading to a tally of 5.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in 201 games. Unfortunately, just about everything went wrong in 2022 as he hit just .217/.272/.361 for an 80 wRC+ with subpar defensive grades.

The Tigers non-tendered him instead of paying him a projected $7MM salary for his final arbitration season, and the Nats swooped in with an offer of $5MM plus $1MM of incentives. It looks like that investment will pay off handsomely for the Nats, as Candelario is having a bounceback season. He’s hitting .261/.337/.478 (118 wRC+) and his defensive grades are much stronger. With so few sellers and a pitching-heavy free agent class this coming winter, Candelario should be one of the most sought-after position players in the weeks to come.

Carl Edwards Jr.

Edwards, 31, missed much of the 2019-2021 period due to injuries and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Nationals prior to the 2022 season. He made it to the big league club in May of last year and posted a 2.76 ERA in 62 innings the rest of the way. He likely benefited from a .259 batting average on balls in play and 83.6% strand rate, but his peripherals were around league average.

The Nationals tendered him a contract for 2023, agreeing to a $2.25MM arbitration salary. He’s been solid this year, with a 3.69 ERA in 32 appearances. His 16.9% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate aren’t exciting, but he has a 46% ground ball rate and has allowed just one home run all year. He isn’t likely to fetch a ton as a rental reliever with worrying peripherals, but he’s fairly cheap and bullpen help is always in demand. He’s been on the injured list almost three weeks due to shoulder inflammation, however, so his health will be a clear factor in his market.

Corey Dickerson

Dickerson is a 34-year-old veteran who signed a one-year, $2.25MM deal with incentives in the offseason. The Nats were surely hoping he could serve as a veteran mentor to their younger players and perhaps play his way into being a deadline trade chip. Unfortunately, he’s hitting just .248/.278/.358 on the year for a wRC+ of 69. As a veteran left-handed hitter, he might get interest based on his track record, but the return would likely be mild even if he gets hot in the next few weeks.

Signed/Controlled For One Extra Year

Dominic Smith

Smith, 28, was a similar bounceback play to the Candelario signing. In 2019 and 2020 with the Mets, he hit .299/.366/.571 for a wRC+ of 150 but followed that up by hitting .233/.298/.345 over the next two years for an 82 wRC+. The Mets non-tendered him, and the Nats signed him to a one-year deal with a $2MM salary and $2MM in incentives.

Unfortunately, this deal hasn’t worked out nearly as well as the Candelario one. Smith is hitting .260/.328/.340 (85 wRC+) while playing first base only. Given the offensive expectations of that position, that’s clearly insufficient production. He can be controlled for 2024 via arbitration but is trending towards another non-tender unless he can turn things around.

Victor Robles

Robles, 26, was once considered one of the top prospects in the league but has yet to put it all together at the big league level. He’s always had the speed and defense combo working but has continued to struggle at the plate, coming into 2023 with a career batting line of .233/.306/.359 and a 78 wRC+.

He has shown some positive developments here this year, including a 14.3% strikeout rate that’s well below his 23.9% rate in previous years. His .299/.385/.364 batting line is a bit above average, translating to a wRC+ of 111. Unfortunately, that’s come in just 36 games as he’s twice gone on the IL due to back spasms, including his current stint. He’s making $2.325MM this year with a $3.3MM club option for 2024. Even if that were turned down, he could still be retained via arbitration.

Trevor Williams

Williams, 31, was primarily a starter with the Pirates for many years but had been deployed in a swing role by the Mets in recent seasons. He signed a two-year, $13MM deal to return to a starting role with the Nationals. He has a 4.45 ERA through 18 starts, striking out 17% of opponents while walking 7.5%. That low strikeout rate has led to a 5.41 FIP and 4.95 SIERA. He’s not going to command huge interest, but a club in need of a back-end innings eater could give Washington a call.

Patrick Corbin

Corbin, 34 next week, is having a bounce back year, at least in terms of results so far. His 4.89 earned run average is an improvement over his 6.31 figure from last year and the 5.82 from the year prior. That’s come despite a 15.2% strikeout rate, which is a few ticks below the past few seasons and would be a career low. On his back-loaded contract, he’s making $24MM this year and a massive $35MM next year. Even if the Nats paid all of that down, they likely wouldn’t be able to get much back in trade.

Longer-Term Players

Lane Thomas

Thomas, 27, is perhaps the Nats’ best chance to get a significant return this summer. He’s hitting .302/.347/.497 for a wRC+ of 126. His defense is generally considered a bit below average, but he’s stolen eight bases in 10 tries this year. It could be debated as to whether Thomas or Candelario is having the better season overall, but Thomas comes with two extra seasons of arbitration control beyond this one. He’s making $2.2MM this year and would be in line for a couple of raises in the upcoming campaigns.

He’s not a lock to be moved because the Nats could hold onto him and hope to return to contention while he’s still on the club. However, his trade value will only diminish as he gets closer to free agency and more expensive. It’s certainly possible that the Nationals return to contention in the coming years, but it will be a challenge with the division featuring a stacked Atlanta club, the ascendent Marlins and aggressive-spending Mets and Phillies.

Hunter Harvey

Harvey, 28, has been a solid reliever for the club over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 76 appearances with a 2.86 earned run average, 28.4% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate. He’s continued to move into higher-leverage spots, earning 11 holds and eight saves this year. He could be retained for two more seasons via arbitration, but reliever performance is volatile and there’s always the risk of an injury. He’s making just $870K this year.

Kyle Finnegan

Finnegan, 31, is in essentially the same spot as Harvey, as he can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons beyond this one. He has a longer track record, having established himself as a viable reliever back in 2020, but his results are less encouraging this year. His 3.38 ERA is still solid, but his strikeout rate has dropped from last year’s 26.1% to this year’s 22.4%, with his walk and ground-ball rates also moving in the wrong direction a bit. He’s making $2.325MM this year.

Tanner Rainey

Rainey, 30, is like Finnegan and Harvey in that he has two arbitration seasons after this one. But his situation is very different, as he had Tommy John surgery last August and is only now nearing a rehab assignment. Players on the injured list can still be traded, though the interest may be muted based on the uncertainty. He posted a 3.30 ERA last year with a 28.1% strikeout rate prior to going under the knife. He’s making $1.5MM this year.

Ildemaro Vargas

Vargas, 32 this weekend, has plenty of experience as a light-hitting utility player. He had a .233/.268/.355 career batting line by the end of 2021 for a wRC+ of 60 but had played every position except center field and catcher. He’s had better results at the plate since joining the Nats in August of last year, hitting .281/.310/.409 for a wRC+ of 98 in 289 plate appearances. He’s making $975K this year and can be retained via arbitration for two more seasons.

Joey Meneses

Unlike the other names on this list, Meneses isn’t approaching free agency or making a significant salary. The long-time minor leaguer finally got the call to the big leagues last year at the age of 30 and mashed 13 home runs in 56 games, finishing the season with a .324/.367/.563 batting line and 156 wRC+. He was only able to accrue 65 days of service time, leaving the Nats with six years of remaining control.

His production has naturally taken a step back in 2023, as he’s hit just six home runs and is batting .284/.328/.404 for a wRC+ of 98. He’s been on a mini heater of late, as four of those six homers came in the club’s last three games before the break. The Nats could simply hang onto Meneses given that he’s not slated for arbitration until after 2025 or free agency until after 2028. However, his late-bloomer trajectory means that he’s already 31 years old and will likely be in his mid-30s by the time the club is in contention again. Perhaps the best course of action would be to cash him in for younger players now — if there’s sufficient interest in the next few weeks.

____________________________

The Nationals were the star sellers of each of the past two deadlines, flipping Scherzer and Turner two years ago and then Soto last year. They don’t have any players that could reach that level, either in terms of publicity or prospect return. However, Candelario is one of the best rentals available and should net them some decent value. If they get more aggressive and move controllable players like Thomas, Harvey and Finnegan, they could go even farther in stockpiling young talent for future seasons.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #8: Nationals Get Everyday Outfielder For Jon Lester

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player in recent years. We’ve already published some honorable mentions, the #10 entry and the #9 deal. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto #8…

The Nationals were consistently competitive in the second decade of the millennium, finishing with a winning record in each season from 2012 to 2019. They qualified for the postseason five times in that stretch and won the World Series in that final year.

The next decade got off to a rough start, as they went 26-34 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Nonetheless, they went into 2021 with some excellent players still on the roster, including Juan Soto, Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. They fortified that group by trading for Josh Bell and giving one-year deals to Brad Hand, Kyle Schwarber and Jon Lester.

Unfortunately, they couldn’t get things back on track that season and had a record of 48-55 on July 30. They were in fourth place in the National League East, seven games behind the Mets with Philadelphia and Atlanta between them. They were even further back in the Wild Card race, 11 games, as the West featured three excellent clubs in the Giants, Dodgers and Padres.

That put them into sell mode at the deadline and they did plenty of it. Each of Turner, Scherzer, Hand and Schwarber were traded, as were Yan Gomes, Josh Harrison and Daniel Hudson. The deal that sent Scherzer and Turner to the Dodgers technically wasn’t a rental trade, as Turner had another year of control, so we didn’t consider it for this series. Those other deals mostly yielded players that are still in the minors as of this writing. But in addition to all those, the Nats also made a trade that sent Lester to the Cardinals in exchange for MLB-ready outfielder Lane Thomas, who we will get to in a moment.

Jon Lester | John Hefti-USA TODAY SportsLester had already had a very impressive career that began back in 2006. He had many great seasons with the Red Sox and Cubs and already had three World Series rings. In 2021, he was 37 years old and had naturally fallen off a bit from his peak. His ERA went from 3.32 in 2018 to 4.46 the year after and 5.16 in the shortened 2020 season.

The Nats felt he still had something left in the tank and signed him to a one-year, $5MM deal. Lester made 16 starts for the Nationals with a 5.02 ERA. His 14.9% strikeout rate was a noticeable drop from his peak years but his 8.5% walk rate and 42% ground ball rate were around league average. In short, he was a back-of-the-rotation starter, which is just what the Cardinals needed.

Their rotation had been sliced up by injuries to Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Carlos Martínez, Dakota Hudson and others. Despite that, they were hovering above .500 and in the playoff race. They didn’t go after aces that summer, just guys who could take the ball and give them a chance, figuring that a modest stabilization of the rotation could be enough for them to improve their fortunes. They grabbed 36-year-old Wade LeBlanc, 38-year-old J.A. Happ and the 37-year-old Lester to fortify things alongside 39-year-old Adam Wainwright.

The gambit would pay off for St. Louis as they finished strong. Lester did his job by making 12 starts with a 4.36 ERA. The Cards ended the season at 90-72, securing a playoff spot, though they lost the Wild Card game to the Dodgers.

For the Nats, they weren’t able to make much use of Lester’s services, so it was a logical move to swap him out for a promising outfielder in Thomas. He had made his major league debut with the Cardinals in 2019 and hit an excellent .316/.409/.684 in 44 plate appearances but was nonetheless frequently optioned to the minors. Despite his strong results, he was squeezed out of the St. Louis outfield that also featured the likes of Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, José Martínez, Tyler O’Neill and others.

Thomas would continue to get sporadic playing time in the next couple of seasons. He only got into 18 games in the 2020 season and then 32 more in 2021 prior to the trade. He struggled badly in those two cups of coffee, hitting just .107/.235/.179, but continued showing his promise in the minors. He was slashing .265/.339/.451 in Triple-A at the time of the deal.

The Nationals likely hoped that Thomas would thrive with a better path to playing time, and that has largely proven to be true. He was briefly kept in Triple-A after the deal but was called up after just three games. He hit .270/.364/.489 at the major league level in the final few weeks of 2021, launching seven home runs and stealing four bases in just 45 games.

2022 saw him finally get the everyday gig he didn’t get in St. Louis, as he tallied 548 plate appearances in 146 games. It wasn’t a spectacular showing, but he was serviceable. He hit 17 home runs and stole eight bases, though his 7.5% walk rate and 24.1% strikeout rate were both slightly worse than average. His .241/.301/.404 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 96 and he was worth 1.1 wins above replacement on the year according to FanGraphs, 1.6 at Baseball Reference.

Things are going better here in 2023, as he already has nine home runs and five steals. His plate discipline numbers are fairly similar, but he’s hitting .281/.336/.455 for a wRC+ of 114. His .350 batting average on balls in play is much higher than last year’s .291, but that can’t be entirely dismissed as just good luck since his hard hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity have also increased compared to a year ago.

Defensively, Thomas isn’t considered an excellent fielder, which is surprising considering his 95th percentile sprint speed. Nonetheless, he’s capable of holding his own at any of the three outfield slots, which is useful for a rebuilding club that is rotating through various players on a regular basis. He qualified for arbitration for the first time in the most recent offseason and is making $2.2MM this year. He’ll be eligible for two more passes before he’s slated for free agency after 2025.

Whether the Nats can come out of their rebuild in that time frame remains to be seen. But even in the event that they linger outside of contention for a while, they could always market Thomas and his remaining control to other clubs around the league.

In the end, both teams got what they wanted out of the deal. The Cards firmed up their rotation as hoped and were able to make a late charge and earn a playoff spot, while the Nats turned a couple months of a veteran pitcher into four and a half years of a solid outfielder who has stepped into an everyday role.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nationals’ Under-The-Radar Deadline Pickup Off To Strong Start In D.C.

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The Nationals had a high-profile teardown this past July. The biggest splash sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, while other notables like Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes and Daniel Hudson were flipped to contenders. Almost buried amidst that flurry was a lower-profile swap announced less than an hour before the deadline: acquiring outfielder Lane Thomas from the Cardinals for veteran starter Jon Lester. While that trade didn’t grab nearly as many headlines as some of the Nats’ other moves, the early returns look very promising.

Thomas has been around for a few seasons, but he never got an extended look with St. Louis. Between 2019-21, he struggled to a .172/.289/.336 line across 142 scattered plate appearances. Generally regarded by prospect evaluators as a fourth outfield type and turning 26 years old in August, it’s easy to understand why the Cardinals’ front office was willing to make him available. Yet Thomas picked up everyday run on a depleted Washington roster down the stretch, putting up quietly excellent numbers.

Over 206 plate appearances in the nation’s capital, the former fifth-round pick posted a .270/.364/.489 slash line, hitting seven home runs and stealing four bases. He spent the bulk of that time in center field, playing well enough to supplant former top prospect Víctor Robles on the depth chart. That offensive output was 27 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. More encouragingly, it was largely backed up by strong plate discipline and batted ball metrics.

During his end-of-season run, Thomas demonstrated an enviable combination of patience, bat-to-ball skills and power on contact. The right-handed hitter had an extreme willingness to work deep counts, a continuation of a trend he’d shown in St. Louis. Thomas swings far less often than most at pitches both inside and outside the strike zone, a plan of attack that allows him to draw plenty of walks but also puts him at risk for his share of strikeouts. Yet he kept the punch outs manageable during his time in Washington by making contact on a robust 82.4% of his swings (about six percentage points higher than the league mark).

That patience and contact frequency gave Thomas a strong floor from an on-base perspective, but his contact authority was particularly impressive. The Tennessee native had an average exit velocity of 91.7 MPH, more than three ticks harder than the 88.1 MPH league average. According to FanGraphs, he made hard contact on 45.1% of his batted balls with the Nats. The average MLB hitter (excluding pitchers) had a 32.5% hard contact rate in 2021.

That’s a rare set of skills, even in a limited sample of work. Among the 463 players with at least 100 plate appearances, only sixteen managed a hard contact rate north of 40% while striking out in fewer than a quarter of their trips to the dish. Other than Thomas, every player in that group posted a wRC+ of 122 or higher (indicating they were at least 22 percentage points more productive than average offensively). Removing Thomas’ poor 58 plate appearances with the Cardinals early in the season puts him right among that very impressive list of names, both from a results and process perspective.

That’s not to say Thomas is absolutely an elite hitter now, or even that the Cardinals made a mistake in giving him up. Lester was a reliable source of decent innings down the stretch, helping St. Louis to a fantastic second-half run to the postseason. And Thomas needs more than two months of strong performance to cement himself as a core member of the Nats’ future.

His first couple months in a Washington uniform couldn’t have gone much better, though. At the very least, he’s earned an extended opportunity to try to cement himself alongside Juan Soto in the long-term outfield. The Nationals are likely to take a step back in 2022 as they audition younger players like Thomas, but they prioritized near-MLB returns during their deadline sell-off and aren’t about to embark on a rebuild while Soto is under club control. Washington may need some things to fall into place to be realistic contenders in what should be a competitive NL East by 2023. Thomas settling in as a productive regular would be one those pluses, and he’s started off on the right foot with his new club.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nationals’ Joe Ross Out For Season, Will Not Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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AUGUST 17: Ross will not need to undergo Tommy John surgery, Martinez told reporters (including Maria Torres of the Athletic). He won’t pitch again this season, but Martinez expressed hope he could be ready for Spring Training in 2022.

AUGUST 15: An MRI has revealed a partial UCL tear in Joe Ross’s right elbow, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Nationals manager Dave Martinez says Tommy John surgery is possible but hasn’t been decided on definitively. The righty has already undergone the procedure once before, back in 2017. Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post notes that he is going to see the same doctor who performed that surgery to determine how to proceed.

Whether the surgery is the chosen path or not, this is an unfortunate diagnosis for Ross, one of the few notable Nationals players that wasn’t traded at the deadline. One way or another, he is now sure to miss some significant time. He has thrown 108 innings this year with an ERA of 4.17, with strikeout and walk rate both slightly better than league average, at 23.7% and 7.4%, respectively. His 1.4 fWAR is the most of any Nationals pitcher this year who is still on the team. He’s currently on track to be a free agent after the 2022 season. But it’s now possible the team will not tender him a contract, given that there’s a chance he could miss the entire year.

For the team, this further diminishes a rotation that has lost Max Scherzer and Jon Lester to trades, as well as Stephen Strasburg to thoracic outlet surgery. Martinez says that Sean Nolin could potentially get another start in Ross’s absence, per Dougherty.

With Ross going on the IL, Lane Thomas is taking his place on the roster, also per Dougherty. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester trade, Thomas is a 25-year-old outfielder. He got into 32 games for St. Louis this year, with a paltry slash line of .104/.259/.125. But his Triple-A numbers are much better on the season, slashing .278/.343/.476.

Nationals, Cardinals Swap Jon Lester For Lane Thomas

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The Cardinals added a second veteran lefty just prior to the trade deadline, agreeing to acquire longtime division rival Jon Lester from the Nationals in exchange for outfielder Lane Thomas. Both teams announced the swap.

Jon Lester | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Lester joins fellow graybeard J.A. Happ as a new addition to a Cardinals rotation that has been decimated by injury. The Cards are currently without ace Jack Flaherty (oblique strain), while Carlos Martinez is done for the year after undergoing thumb surgery. Miles Mikolas has pitched just four innings this year owing to another forearm strain. The Cards knew Dakota Hudson wouldn’t pitch in 2021 after he had Tommy John surgery last September. They’ve also seen absences for Kwang-hyun Kim and Daniel Ponce de Leon at times; the latter is on the shelf with a shoulder issue at the moment, in fact.

With so many injuries on the staff, the Cards had already turned to veteran lefty Wade LeBlanc to soak up some innings, and their acquisitions of Happ and Lester come with similar goals. Neither Happ nor Lester has pitched all that well in 2021, though Lester has the far better results of the two. He’s worked to a 5.02 ERA in 76 innings for the Nats and generated respectable ground-ball (42%) and walk (8.5%) rates. His 14.9 percent strikeout rate, however, is about nine percent worse than the league-average.

Lester, at this point, is primarily a five-inning pitcher. He’s recorded an out in the sixth inning or later in just five of his 16 trips to the mound this season and has been rocked at a .333/.386/.627 clip on the rare occasions he’s been asked to turn a lineup over for a third time. He’s not the innings eater that he once was, but if the Cardinals don’t try to push him into the sixth and seventh innings on the regular, he ought to be able to keep them in games and help bridge the gap until Flaherty and Mikolas are hopefully able to return. Lester is on a one-year, $5MM contract and will be a free agent at season’s end.

As for the Nationals’ return, the 26-year-old Thomas has yet to produce in the big leagues outside a quick cup of coffee late in the 2019 season, although it’s still rather surprising to see the Cardinals part with a big-league-ready outfielder who can be optioned both this year and next. Thomas is hitting just .104/.259/.125 this year, though it’s just a sample of 58 plate appearances. He’s an overall .172/.289/.336 hitter in a similarly small sample of 142 plate appearances.

Lane Thomas | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Thomas ranked as the Cardinals No. 14 prospect at  FanGraphs as recently as last summer, drawing praise for his defensive prowess in center field and the potential to pair that with some improved power and plate coverage. His lack of production in the big leagues notwithstanding, Thomas is a .269/.342/.468 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons, including a .265/.339/.451 showing in Triple-A Memphis this season.

The move to the Nationals seems like a good opportunity for Thomas, who’d been squeezed out of the outfield picture in St. Louis in favor of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson. With the Nationals, who traded Kyle Schwarber and have a struggling Victor Robles in center field, opportunities for Thomas ought to be more plentiful. He might be a long shot to break out as an everyday option in D.C., but Thomas should at least get that chance. For two months of a struggling veteran starter, it’s a pretty nice roll of the dice for the Nats to inherit.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN broke the news (via Twitter) that Lester was going to St. Louis. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reported that the Nats were getting Thomas in return.

Cardinals Select Lars Nootbaar, Designate Bernardo Flores Jr.

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The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve selected the contract of outfielder Lars Nootbaar from Triple-A Memphis and optioned outfielder Lane Thomas to Triple-A in his place. Left-hander Bernardo Flores Jr. was designated for assignment in order to create a 40-man roster spot for Nootbaar, who’ll be making his MLB debut when he first takes the field.

Nootbaar, 23, was the Cardinals’ eighth-round pick in 2018. He didn’t enter the season ranked among the organization’s top 30 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs, but the USC product’s monster season in Memphis has overshadowed that lack of fanfare.

Nootbaar has been an average or better hitter at every minor league stop prior to 2021 but has absolutely erupted with the RedBirds, slashing at a .329/.430/.557 clip. That output has come in just a 22-game sample, given a brief stay on the injured list, but for a Cardinals club that has yet again seen lackluster production in the outfield, the allure is understandable.

Cardinals outfielders are tied for 24th in the Majors with a 95 wRC+, as only Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson have provided the club with above-average offensive production. St. Louis outfielders, as a group, rank 23rd in baseball with a .232 average, 24th with a .307 on-base percentage and 20th with a .401 slugging percentage (thanks primarily to O’Neill’s 15 round-trippers). Thomas, optioned out today to create 26-man roster space for Nootbaar’s promotion, has been one of the primary reasons for the group’s poor overall rankings, batting just .104/.259/.125 in a small sample of 58 plate appearances.

Flores, 25, was an April waiver claim out of the White Sox organization and appeared in just one big league game before today’s DFA. He faced three batters back in a May 5 loss to the Mets but was unable to retire any of them, issuing a pair of walks and a base hit. Flores had a nice run through the Double-A level as a member of the White Sox’ farm system, but he’s been roughed up for a 5.74 ERA with sub-par strikeout and walk rates while pitching for the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate (17.6 percent and 12.2 percent, respectively).

The Cardinals will have a week to trade Flores or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. If he passes through waivers unclaimed, they’ll be able to keep him in the organization without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him.

Cardinals Place Tyler O’Neill On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cardinals have placed outfielder Tyler O’Neill on the 10-day IL due to a right groin strain, the team announced.  Since righty Jake Woodford was optioned to the alternate training site after yesterday’s game, the two open roster spots were filled by outfielder Lane Thomas and right-hander Johan Oviedo.

O’Neill suffered the injury during an at-bat in yesterday’s 9-5 loss to the Brewers, coming out of the batter’s box moving slowly after hitting a grounder.  He was replaced in the field the next inning.  Manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that O’Neill might only be out for the minimum 10 days, saying that the young outfielder received “Favorable news from an imaging standpoint….Probably a three to four day (situation) before he can get in there.  We didn’t want to play short for three or four days.”

The IL stint could possibly act as something of a reset for O’Neill, who has hit only .143/.172/.286 with a league-high 14 strikeouts over his first 29 plate appearances of the 2021 season.  Strikeouts have been a persistent issue during O’Neill’s four MLB seasons, and his overall production at the plate has trailed off considerably since a promising 2018 rookie season.  On the plus side, O’Neill won a Gold Glove for his defensive work as the Cardinals’ regular left fielder in 2020.

O’Neill joins Harrison Bader on the 10-day IL, leaving the Cards even more short-handed in the outfield.  A veteran of 52 Major League games, Thomas will join the mix along with Dylan Carlson, Justin Williams, Austin Dean, and utilityman Tommy Edman (when Edman isn’t at second base).  Minor league signing Matt Szczur is also on hand at the team’s alternate training site.

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