Lars Nootbaar

Cardinals Notes: Mozeliak, O’Neill, Carlson, Nootbaar

By Mark Polishuk | May 29, 2023 at 9:46pm CDT

The Cardinals’s record dropped to 24-32 after today’s loss to the Royals, but unsurprisingly, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak isn’t giving up on the season as the calendar approaches June. In an interview with Jim Hayes of Bally Sports (video link) today, Mozeliak said his team is preparing to make additions at the trade deadline, and “I don’t anticipate us [selling] at all. I think…where our division is headed, it’s going to remain very competitive. So really we’re going to be looking at ways that can really help this club.”

Despite their lackluster record, the Cards are still only 5.5 games out of first place in the NL Central, with the Brewers holding the top spot with a modest 28-25 record. Also, the National League as a whole is still very compact, so the Cardinals are only five games out of a wild card berth.

It’s therefore far too early for a team with World Series aspirations like the Cardinals to reload for 2024, especially considering that St. Louis has made a habit of second-half surges in recent years. It’s possible the Cards have already bounced back in some fashion from their brutal start, as St. Louis is 14-8 in its last 22 games and can clinch a winning record in May with a victory over the Royals on Tuesday.

Mozeliak also provided an update of sorts on Tyler O’Neill, though not positive news for a player who has already been out since May 5 due to a lower back strain. O’Neill is still “feeling discomfort” in his back, so Mozeliak noted that “until he’s cleared to do more baseball activity, it’s hard to push him through that.” As a result, Mozeliak said “we’re doing to do a little bit of a pause” on O’Neill’s rehab work, and “do a few additional tests, and then decide what those next steps look like.”

Dylan Carlson has been sidelined with an ankle injury for the last two weeks but Mozeliak mentioned he could begin a minor league rehab assignment as early as this week. That would provide some help for a Cardinals outfield that looks like it’ll be missing O’Neill for the foreseeable future, and another injury concern emerged today when Lars Nootbaar left the game due to back spasms.

In the second inning, Nootbaar collided with the wall while making a catch, leaving the outfielder visibly sore. Nootbaar tried to stay in the game but in the next inning, he dropped to his knees while in pursuit of a Nick Pratto fly ball, and had to be removed. In postgame interviews with Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, Nootbaar didn’t seem too worried about the injury, but it would seem likely that the Cardinals will keep him out of at least tomorrow’s lineup for precautionary reasons. The Cards have a rare two-day schedule break on May 31 and June 1, so if Nootbaar could get three full days off to heal up before a potential return to action.

The Ongoing Cardinals Outfield Battle

By Darragh McDonald | April 28, 2023 at 11:22am CDT

Even though the Cardinals traded away Harrison Bader last summer, they are still dealing with a crowded outfield mix. That’s thanks to the emergence of young players like Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker. Those two joined Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson in the battle for playing time. That’s five guys for three spots, since infielder Nolan Gorman has been taking the designated hitter slot on most days, with Willson Contreras getting a couple of nods there as well when not catching.

The crowding evidently got to be a bit too much, as Walker was surprisingly optioned down to the minors this week. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently addressed the move, as relayed by John Denton of MLB.com (Twitter links). Mozeliak said the move was about getting some more consistency from this group, hoping that subtracting one member would make it easier for everyone to get into a good rhythm.

The results of this jockeying for playing time will have consequences for the club in the short term, as they are off to a rough 10-16 start and will need to gain ground in the coming months. There will also be long-term ramifications, since all of those players are still under club control next year. If the Cards find themselves outside the playoff picture in July, they could consider moving someone and still have plenty of options to fill the outfield. And , as we saw last year with the Bader deal, they could make a trade even when they are in contention. Those decisions will surely be based on how the individuals perform in the next few months, so let’s take a look at where things stand now.

Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill is the oldest and most experienced of the bunch, turning 28 in June and having debuted in 2018. He has between four and five years of service time, meaning he can be controlled via arbitration for one more year before reaching free agency after the 2024 season.

He has shown the ability to be an excellent all-around player, especially in 2021. O’Neill hit 34 home runs that year and slashed .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 144. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his glovework in left field, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs. That currently stands out as a career year for O’Neill, who was slowed by injuries last year. He only got into 96 games and had a diminished .228/.308/.392 batting line (101 wRC+). This year, he’s hitting just .256/.318/.385 for a wRC+ of 98.

O’Neill and manager Oli Marmol got in a public spat earlier in the year when the latter accused the former of improper hustle and spoke to the media about it. O’Neill disagreed with the sentiment that he wasn’t giving his all and also didn’t seem to care for the issue being aired so openly. He was benched for one game but has been getting regular playing time since, seeming to suggest there’s no lingering ill will from the dust-up. He got some time in center field earlier in the year but has been back in left for the past couple of weeks.

Some observers have pointed to the fact that Bader was also criticized by Marmol for a lack of hustle last year, just about six weeks before he was flipped to the Yankees, therefore suggesting the writing is on the wall for O’Neill. That’s pure speculation, but O’Neill is the most logical trade candidate since he’s the oldest and closest to free agency. However, dealing him would be selling low unless he can regain some of that excellent form he showed a couple of years ago.

Lars Nootbaar

Nootbaar is in his third major league season but was frequently optioned in the first couple, meaning he’s played just 178 games thus far. He initially hovered around league average at the plate but has taken steps forward over the past year or so, seeming to thrive when he got more regular playing time. Bader went on the IL June 27 of last year with plantar fasciitis, moving Carlson over to center and opening right field for Nootbaar. Bader was then traded before even recovering from that ailment. Since that time, Nootbaar has walked almost as much as he’s been punched out, getting a free pass 17.2% of the time compared to an 18.4% strikeout rate. That’s led to a .244/.373/.478 batting line and a 141 wRC+. His strong results at the plate are backed up by Statcast, who ranked him in the 90th percentile last year in terms of average exit velocity, 80th in hard hit rate and 85th in barrel rate.

That strong work at the plate is accompanied by excellent glovework as well. Nootbaar has played all three outfield positions and has tallied two Outs Above Average, six Defensive Runs Saved and a 6.7 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating. In the comments from Mozeliak linked above, he said Nootbaar will be the regular center fielder going forward.

Nootbaar seems like a solid long-term piece for the Cardinals given his well-rounded contributions. He’s currently 25 years old and has between one and two years of service time. He won’t reach arbitration until after 2024 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2027. Over the winter, both the Athletics (in Sean Murphy discussions) and Marlins (in Pablo Lopez talks) brought up Nootbaar as a target of interest, but the Cardinals rebuffed those overtures.

Alec Burleson

Unlike O’Neill and Nootbaar, Burleson has fewer dimensions to his game. His defense is generally considered subpar, even when limited to the corners, and Statcast pegs him in the 24th percentile in terms of sprint speed. He’s seen a bit of time at first base, dating back to last season.

The appeal of Burleson is his bat, which has the potential to hit for both contact and power. Outside of a brief debut in High-A in 2021, he’s generally been difficult to strike out both in the majors and the minors. He’s had only 134 major league plate appearances so far but has been punched out at just a 14.2% rate, well below this year’s 23% league average. He’s hit three home runs so far and currently has a line of .236/.295/.444. That’s just slightly above average, translating to a 104 wRC+, but that’s not bad for a player still getting his feet wet in the majors. He hit 20 home runs in 109 Triple-A games last year and slashed .331/.372/.532 (137 wRC+).

Burleson is just 24 years old and has less than a year of service, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration until after 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until 2028. He could be a long-term option in the corners for St. Louis, but he isn’t an exact match for their typical M.O. of placing an emphasis on defense.

Dylan Carlson

Carlson was considered one of the top prospects in baseball not too long ago, with Baseball America having him in the top 10 league-wide in 2020 and 2021. He got regular playing time over the past two years and proved himself to be a serviceable player with average-ish hitting and defense. Carlson hit .253/.331/.412 for a wRC+ of 107 over 2021 and 2022, walking and striking out at roughly league average rates. All three of DRS, OAA and UZR considered his glovework average or slightly above.

He’s been the one most squeezed by the logjam so far, only starting 10 of the club’s 26 games. The part-time role hasn’t suited him, as he’s hitting just .250/.308/.333 on the season for a wRC+ of 83. Perhaps he is the player with the most to gain from Walker’s demotion, as he will hopefully get some more trips to the plate and get into a better groove. He’s 24 years old but has between two and three years of service time already. He’s on pace to qualify for arbitration this winter and reach free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.

Jordan Walker

Walker parlayed a hot spring into an Opening Day roster spot despite being just 20 years old, turning 21 in May. He stayed hot to start the season, getting a hit in his first 12 games while slashing .319/.360/.489. He cooled off a bit from there, hitting just .192/.250/.231 since then. That latter line is a tiny sample of eight games, but the club still felt the best decision for everyone involved was for him to get regular at-bats in the minors and to spread his playing time around to the others. Between both of those stretches, he only walked in 3.8% of his trips to the plate.

Walker is still one of the best prospects in the game and will no doubt be back at some point. An injury to one of the other outfielders would quickly make space for him. He was on track to earn a full year of service this year but could wind up shy of that, depending how long he’s down on the farm.

Juan Yepez

Yepez has mashed in the minors over the past few years, hitting .252/.343/.487 in Double-A and .281/.362/.575 in Triple-A. He’s seemingly capable of carrying that over to the big leagues as well, having hit .257/.297/.453 for a wRC+ of 111 in 286 plate appearances. The problem is that he’s not considered a strong runner or defender. He could be a useful bat-first player in a corner spot, but the Cards have Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado at first and third, in addition to the crowded outfield mix. Yepez is 25 years old and still has a couple of option years, meaning the Cards can keep him as a depth piece for quite a while if they so choose.

Moises Gomez

Gomez isn’t considered a great runner or defender, nor does he have strong bat-to-ball skills. His standout tool is his power. Gomez hit 39 home runs last year in 120 games between Double-A and Triple-A, but also struck out in 34.7% of his plate appearances. He was added to the 40-man roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency but is off to a slow start this year. Through 20 Triple-A games, he’s cut his strikeout rate to 24.7% but has gone deep just once and is walking just 4.7% of the time. His .234/.282/.351 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 58.

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There’s plenty of talent amid these options and it seems entirely possible that a trade will be on the table this summer, whether the Cardinals climb back into contention or not. They could easily move one of these players for some pitching, just like they did with Bader last year, and still have good options for filling out the lineup card every night. The club’s front office has just over three months to decide how to play it.

IL Activations: Hughes, Nootbaar, Kepler, Lorenzen

By Mark Polishuk | April 15, 2023 at 6:11pm CDT

Catching up on notable players returning from the injured list today…

LATEST MOVES

The Cubs activated left-hander Brandon Hughes from the 15-day IL, and outfielder Nelson Velazquez was optioned to Triple-A to create roster space. Hughes was bothered by inflammation in his left knee during Spring Training, so Chicago placed him on the IL prior to Opening Day so Hughes could recover and then complete his ramp-up progress. In an impressive rookie season, Hughes posted a 3.12 ERA and an above-average 28.3% strikeout rate (albeit with a subpar walk rate) over 57 2/3 innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen.

EARLIER TODAY

The Cardinals activated Lars Nootbaar from the 10-day IL, and sent Juan Yepez to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Nootbaar was in the St. Louis lineup for the first time since Opening Day, when he injured his left thumb diving into a base. While the Cardinals’ outfield depth chart might prevent Nootbaar from true everyday duty, he is still expected to get a lot of playing time as a left-handed hitter capable of playing all three outfield spots. Jordan Walker’s emergence has only added to a crowded outfield picture that also includes Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Yepez, and utilityman Brendan Donovan.
The Twins activated outfielder Max Kepler from the 10-day IL, as Kepler returned after missing the minimum 10 days while recovering from right patellar tendinitis. Minnesota optioned outfielder Matt Wallner to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Kepler’s return will bring a bit of relief for the injury-plagued Twins, and he’ll look for something of a reset to his season after playing in only four games prior to his IL stint. Kepler is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, and will be a free agent this winter unless the Twins exercise a $10MM club option for 2024.
Michael Lorenzen made his first start of the season today, as the Tigers activated the right-hander from the 15-day IL. Unsurprisingly, Lorenzen showed some rust, allowing six earned runs over four innings in what ended up being a 7-6 comeback win for Detroit over San Francisco. A left groin strain has kept Lorenzen on the shelf, but going forward, he is expected to contribute in the Tigers’ rotation after signing a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal during the offseason. Along with activating Lorenzen, Detroit also called up southpaw Tyler Holton from Triple-A, and sent righty Garrett Hill and infielder Ryan Kreidler to Triple-A.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Marlins, Naughton, Nootbaar, Wainwright

By Mark Polishuk | April 8, 2023 at 10:31am CDT

Tyler O’Neill’s name was part of trade talks with the Marlins and other teams this winter, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports. Back in January, Rosenthal wrote that St. Louis had shown interest in the Marlins’ pitching, and since Miami was known to be looking for outfield help, it stands to reason that O’Neill was part of those discussions. No trade materialized between the two sides, of course, and it isn’t known if O’Neill was necessarily one of the Marlins’ top targets on the St. Louis roster, or if the Cards were more open to moving O’Neill than any of their outfielders.

Given all of the Cardinals’ outfield depth and the Marlins’ rotation depth, any number of names or potential trades could’ve been floated in negotiations — likewise, any team engaging the Cardinals in outfield-related trade talks might’ve had a few options in mind. While O’Neill was coming off a relative down year in 2022, that doesn’t mean rival clubs wouldn’t have still had trade interest, perhaps hoping to nab the two-time Gold Glover in a buy-low situation.

With this all in mind, Rosenthal wonders if O’Neill could potentially be tangled in trade talks again, perhaps in an outfielder-for-pitching swap similar to the deal that sent Harrison Bader to the Yankees for Jordan Montgomery at last year’s trade deadline. As The Athletic’s Levi Weaver noted, Bader was traded within a couple of months after Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol removed him mid-game for a perceived lack of effort. On Wednesday, O’Neill wasn’t in the Cards’ starting lineup, which Marmol publicly said was due to what the skipper felt was a lack of hustle on O’Neill’s part in running the bases in Tuesday’s game. O’Neill both denied that charge, and also wasn’t pleased that Marmol went public with the criticism.

It should be noted that O’Neill still appeared in Wednesday’s game as a pinch-hitter, and after Thursday’s off-day, O’Neill was back as the starting center fielder in the Cardinals’ 4-0 loss to the Brewers on Friday. Talking to Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and other reporters, Marmol said it was “one hundred percent” important to have O’Neill back in action, calling him “one of the most talented players in that clubhouse. There’s a next step for Tyler in his career, and my job is to get him there.”

The manager also explained his perspective on “holding someone accountable” as it related to his decision to call O’Neill out, saying “it’s your ability to sit down with a player before the lights come on before the stadium is packed and ask them what they want for themselves and what they want for the team. And allowing them to articulate that and then asking for permission to hold them to that. And when it doesn’t look right, you hold them to that.”

Beyond O’Neill’s return and the shutout loss, Friday’s game was also notable for what might be a significant injury to left-hander Packy Naughton. After pitching to three batters in his relief outing, Naughton left the game with what the club later described as forearm tightness. Goold wrote that Naughton was slated to have his left arm examined last night.

It seems like Naughton is headed for the injured list at the very least, and he and the team can only hope that a serious injury has been avoided. Naughton is just a few days shy of his 27th birthday, and he is in his third MLB season. St. Louis claimed Naughton off waivers from the Angels in March 2022, and his first season with the Cardinals saw Naughton post a 4.78 ERA over 32 innings, working mostly as a reliever.

In other injury news, Lars Nootbaar might be activated from the 10-day IL as early as Monday, since Marmol told MLB.com and other reporters that the club will wait to see how Nootbaar’s injured left thumb feels after batting practice. However, Nootbaar said that his thumb is more of an issue when trying to catch a ball or even when wearing a glove, moreso than any pain caused by taking swings.

Adam Wainwright is on the 15-day IL recovering from a groin strain, and is slated for his second 28-pitch bullpen session on Sunday. If all goes well, Wainwright might throw more pitches in another bullpen tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, and a minor league rehab outing could then follow in the coming days.

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Nootbaar, Wainwright, DeJong

By Darragh McDonald | April 5, 2023 at 12:47pm CDT

Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill is not in today’s lineup, with Dylan Carlson taking his center field spot. It appears as though this is relation to a play in last night’s game where O’Neill was thrown out at home, trying to score from second on a single by Brendan Donovan (Twitter link with video from the Braves). Manager Oli Marmol is of the opinion that O’Neill wasn’t running with full effort on the play and spoke on the record about it last night and again today, as relayed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Katie Woo of The Athletic.

“There is a standard,” Marmol said. “You meet it, you play. You don’t meet it, you don’t play.” He further commented: “There’s going to be a style of play that we are known for. It’s going to involve effort and it’s going to involve being relentless. It’s going to involve being smart. We’re going to hold guys to that, because that’s how you sustain being good for a long time. There’s a lot of good players in that clubhouse, and down below, and I love competition. And the last thing you want to do when you’re in competition is open up a window.”

O’Neill doesn’t agree with Marmol’s view of the situation. “I’m trying to do everything I can to stay on the field and give it my best effort,” O’Neill said. “I’ve never been known to be a dogger in any caliber. So for him to say that is very strong words.” The outfielder also took exception to Marmol talking to the media about the situation. “I don’t think it should’ve been handled that way,” O’Neill said. “I think if there’s internal issues they should be handled internally. We should have each others backs out there. Sometimes it doesn’t go that way I guess. Live and you learn.”

The club came into the season with a glut of outfielders, including O’Neill, Carlson, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson and Juan Yepez. Nootbaar is currently on the injured list but there’s still plenty of guys for three spots, while Nolan Gorman has been the designated hitter most days so far this year. Marmol’s comments suggest that his feelings about the play in question are strong enough that O’Neill is at risk of losing playing time beyond just today’s benching. Time will tell as to how it plays out in the long term, but O’Neill didn’t seem to have a good answer when asked how they will move past this. “I don’t know,” O’Neill said. “Continue with our communication. But really? I don’t know.”

O’Neill can be an excellent player when healthy, which he showed in 2021. He hit 34 home runs that year and slashed .286/.352/.560 for a wRC+ of 144. He also stole 15 bases and was given strong grades for his outfield defense, leading to a tally of 5.6 wins above replacement by FanGraphs. Last year, injuries limited him to 96 games and he wasn’t as impactful while on the field. He’s making $4.95MM this year and can be controlled via arbitration in 2024 before he’s slated to reach free agency.

Moving to less dramatic and more standard fare, Katie Woo also relayed some updates on injured members of the team. As mentioned, Nootbaar is currently on the IL, which is due to a thumb contusion. It seemed like he would likely have a short stay on the shelf and Woo relays that he may not even require a rehab assignment, though the club still isn’t sure about that. His return would further complicate the already-crowded outfield mix.

Adam Wainwright, on the injured list with a groin strain, will throw a bullpen tomorrow as he works his way back to health. Infielder Paul DeJong, who’s been out with a back issue, will begin a rehab assignment tomorrow, taking the designated hitter spot for Palm Beach.

Cardinals Place Lars Nootbaar On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | April 3, 2023 at 6:39pm CDT

The Cardinals have placed outfielder Lars Nootbaar on the 10-day injured list. The placement, which is retroactive to March 31, is due to a left thumb contusion. Outfielder/designated hitter Juan Yepez has been recalled from Triple-A Memphis to take the vacant active roster spot.

Nootbaar suffered the injury diving into a base on Opening Day. He’d been testing the issue for the past few days but ultimately will require at least another week to recover. Nootbaar tested the thumb today while shagging fly balls during batting practice. He’s apparently still dealing with too much discomfort to play.

The Cards had given Nootbaar the Opening Day start in left field. He’d secured a regular lineup spot after breaking out with a .228/.340/.448 showing over 347 plate appearances last season. Paired with the promotion of top prospect Jordan Walker, the Cards relegated last year’s center fielder Dylan Carlson to the bench. One of Carlson or rookie Alec Burleson can step into the outfield alongside Walker and Tyler O’Neill while Nootbaar rehabs.

In other injury news out of Busch Stadium, the club informed reporters that starter Adam Wainwright threw his first bullpen session this afternoon (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). The staff ace opened his final season on the injured list after straining his groin in late March. His timetable for a return to MLB action remains unclear, but getting back onto a mound marks a small step forward in the process.

Cardinals Notes: Contreras, Nootbaar, Gallegos, Wainwright

By Nick Deeds | April 2, 2023 at 8:03am CDT

Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided a litany of injury updates yesterday to reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Among those was an update on catcher Willson Contreras, who took a 103 mph sinker from Cardinals flamethrower Jordan Hicks off his knee in the season’s opener on Thursday and had to be helped off the field. Both x-rays and an MRI came back negative, and Contreras said he could return to the lineup as soon as today after briefly catching warm-up pitches for Jack Flaherty between innings on Saturday.

Contreras, 31 in May, was the Cardinals’ biggest addition of the offseason on a five-year, $87.5MM deal. Prior to signing with St. Louis, Contreras was the everyday catcher for the division rival Cubs since his debut during the 2016 season, posting a 118 wRC+ in seven seasons and racking up three All Star appearances. One of those All Star selections came during the 2022 campaign, which was the best of Contreras’s career: in 113 games, Contreras posted a career low 21.1% strikeout rate and career highs in both wRC+ and fWAR despite a career-low BABIP of just .270.

In signing Contreras, the Cardinals appear to have found their replacement not only to Yadier Molina behind the plate, but also to the thump Albert Pujols provided their lineup in 2022. Given his importance to the club, it’s surely a relief for St. Louis that Contreras’s leg injury is not particularly serious. Andrew Knizner started behind the plate in Saturday’s game, with Taylor Motter and Brendan Donovan among the possible options to catch on an emergency basis while Contreras was unavailable.

Tyler O’Neill Expected To Open Season As Cardinals’ Starting Center Fielder

By Anthony Franco | March 27, 2023 at 10:52pm CDT

The Cardinals are planning to open the season with Tyler O’Neill in center field, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He’s expected to be flanked by Lars Nootbaar and rookie Jordan Walker in the corners, with Dylan Carlson pushed into a fourth outfield role out of the gate.

O’Neill has primarily played left field over the course of his career. He’s logged over 2500 MLB innings in the corners while playing just 210 2/3 frames over 26 starts up the middle. In spite of that lack of experience, O’Neill entered camp with his sight set on the outfield’s most demanding position. While he didn’t play much in Spring Training — he logged just 41 defensive innings thanks in large part to his commitment to Canada in the World Baseball Classic — the Cardinals are confident he’ll be able to assume a larger role.

It’s a bet on O’Neill’s physical tools. He’s an excellent runner with an above-average throwing arm. O’Neill has typically fared very well as a left fielder in the eyes of public metrics, securing consecutive Gold Glove awards there in 2020-21. It’s not out of the question he carries much or all of that production a notch up the defensive spectrum. O’Neill could well have gotten more reps there in prior years had the Cards not rostered a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder in Harrison Bader for much of that time.

Carlson was the primary center fielder during last year’s second half. The 24-year-old slid over from right field once Bader landed on the injured list last June; he held that role following Bader’s trade to the Yankees. Carlson played 530 innings at the position, rating as an above-average if not quite elite defender in the eyes of both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. He paired that solid defense with a .236/.316/.380 line over 488 plate appearances, exactly league average offense as measured by wRC+.

The switch-hitting Carlson was a top prospect a few years ago. He’s been a solid player since debuting in 2020 but not made quite the impact evaluators may have anticipated, particularly from a power perspective. The transition to fourth outfield work has to register as a disappointment but certainly doesn’t preclude Carlson from playing his way back into a larger role.

It’d require good fortune for all three starting outfielders to make it through the entire season without any injuries. There’s also at least some amount of uncertainty regarding each of the players now ahead of him on the depth chart. Walker is seen as a potentially elite talent but has yet to take a regular season at-bat above Double-A. O’Neill is assuming the largest defensive responsibility of his career. Nootbaar set a career mark with 347 plate appearances last season. Nolan Gorman, who appears the early favorite for designated hitter work, has 89 games of MLB experience. There’ll be some amount of variability throughout the season depending on players’ health and performance that should afford Carlson another everyday opportunity at some point. Headed into the season, though, it appears Nootbaar, O’Neill and Walker represents the starting outfield.

Marlins, Twins Continue To Discuss Trade Possibilities Involving Luis Arraez, Pablo Lopez

By Anthony Franco | January 17, 2023 at 10:19pm CDT

The Marlins and Twins continue to explore trade possibilities involving Minnesota infielder Luis Arraez and Miami’s surplus of starting pitching, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first wrote last week that Arraez’s name had come up in discussions involving Marlins righty Pablo López but suggested the Twins were uninterested in parting with the infielder.

Hayes similarly hears that Minnesota isn’t willing to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap of Arraez and López. However, Hayes characterizes Minnesota as willing to entertain larger possibilities involving Arraez and controllable starting pitching targets. While the Twins aren’t actively shopping him, they’re apparently keeping an open mind to broader trade permutations. There’s no indication anything is imminent, and Hayes notes that the sides haven’t directly spoken in several days even as a general line of communication between the clubs seemingly remains open.

The Marlins’ willingness to dealing from the rotation has dated back at least as far as the 2021-22 offseason. Miami has yet to make a major trade but is still generally expected to subtract a starter for an offensive addition between now and Opening Day.

Reports have suggested the Fish were amenable to offers on any of López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. While there’s no indication that’s officially changed, it seems talks are focusing in on the most experienced member of the group. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote this afternoon that López has moved the forefront of Miami’s trade discussions around the league. According to the Herald, discussions on Rogers and Cabrera have “cooled” of late.

That’s not an especially surprising development. López is down to two seasons of remaining club control. Rogers and Luzardo are each controllable for four years, while Cabrera can be retained for another six seasons. That has made López the most straightforward trade candidate in the Miami rotation all along, although early reports this winter suggested the Fish might instead look towards a Rogers deal while keeping López in the fold.

Even with the comparatively lesser control window, López is a highly appealing trade chip for Miami general manager Kim Ng and her staff. The Venezuelan-born righty has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last three seasons. He hasn’t walked more than 7.5% of batters faced in any of those campaigns and has posted at least a 23.6% strikeout rate in all three seasons. López sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and owns one of the game’s better changeups. He misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at an above-average clip and generally manages solid results against right and left-handed hitters alike.

He’ll play the 2023 campaign on a $5.45MM salary after avoiding arbitration last week. The 26-year-old will be due one more raise the following year before hitting free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Acquiring a starter who’s controllable beyond next season is apparently on the wishlist for a Minnesota club that could see a notable chunk of its rotation depart next winter. Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are all slated for free agency after the 2023 campaign. Of their current starting five, only Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are controllable beyond next season. Minnesota extended their window of control over righty Chris Paddack by an extra season last week, signing him through the end of 2025. He’ll likely get another rotation opportunity at some point but is currently on the mend from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. Young pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder and Louie Varland could play their way into the mix at some point but are far from established.

While it’s easy to see the appeal of adding a quality pitcher like López who’d stick around through 2024, Minnesota remains unwilling to do so in a straight swap for Arraez. The left-handed hitter is arbitration eligible for one season longer than López, controllable through 2025. His 2023 salary remains undefined — he and the club look to be headed for an arbitration hearing after not reaching an agreement last week — but will check in between $5MM and $6.1MM.

Arraez is fresh off his first All-Star campaign. He claimed the American League batting title by hitting .316 and reached base at a .375 clip overall. The 25-year-old only hit eight home runs in 603 plate appearances but is among the sport’s best pure hitters. No qualified hitter struck out less often than Arraez, who went down on strikes in only 7.1% of his trips. He was one of six qualified batters with more walks than strikeouts, drawing free passes at a decent 8.3% rate.

A second base prospect throughout his time in the minors, Arraez has assumed more of a bat-first utility role in recent years. Public defensive metrics have given him mixed reviews for his work at the keystone, and Minnesota turned to him more often at first base in deference to Jorge Polanco last season. Arraez can also play some third base and rotate through designated hitter. Miami has Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura to play second and third base, respectively. There’d be room for Arraez to join right-handed power bats Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler in the first base/DH mix, and he’s the archetype of the high-contact bat the Miami front office has reportedly sought.

If Miami and the Twins can’t bridge the gap in their trade discussions, the Marlins would find no shortage of interest in López elsewhere. The Padres and Cardinals have also been linked to the hurler this offseason while a number of others checked in at last summer’s trade deadline. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch implied this afternoon (on Twitter) there wasn’t much momentum between the Fish and Cardinals on López right now, though, suggesting that Miami’s interest in St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar has been rebuffed.

Cardinals Among Teams To Inquire On Marlins’ Starters

By Steve Adams | January 17, 2023 at 10:53am CDT

The Cardinals and Marlins have held “at least preliminary” discussions regarding Miami’s bevy of young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Rosenthal suggests that St. Louis is a nice fit for Pablo Lopez, although on paper, it’s easy enough to make a case for just about any of the Marlins’ available starters as a fit in St. Louis. Each of Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera has seen his name surface in trade chatter recently. Miami, however, doesn’t seem to have any plans to deal ace Sandy Alcantara, whom the Cardinals actually traded to the Fish alongside Zac Gallen in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna from Miami to St. Louis.

The Cardinals have a solid-looking rotation on the surface, with each of Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty likely to slot into the starting five. Depth options behind the group include Dakota Hudson, Jake Woodford, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Andre Pallante, although the latter two did well in a bullpen setting in 2022. Further down the line are prospects Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence, although none of that group is on the 40-man roster just yet.

All that said, however, the Cards could lose nearly their entire rotation after the season. Wainwright is set to retire, while each of Mikolas, Montgomery and Flaherty are free agents next winter. Only Matz, whose four-year contract covers the 2022-25 seasons, is signed or controlled beyond the current season.

In that sense, there’s good reason for the Cards to pursue a starter who can be controlled through at least the 2024 season. There’s surely some internal hope that someone like Liberatore, Graceffo or McGreevy can step up and seize a rotation spot when an opportunity inevitably presents itself this season, but that’s a lot to bank on. And, even if that happens, the Cards would still be looking at multiple rotation spots they need to fill next offseason — perhaps as many as three.

Lopez, 27 in March, has a 3.52 ERA over his past 340 big league innings and is arbitration-eligible through the 2024 campaign. Luzardo, even younger at 25, enjoyed a nice bounceback year in 2022 when he notched a 3.32 ERA and 30% strikeout rate, but a forearm injury limited him to just 100 1/3 innings. He’s under team control through 2026. That’s the same amount of club control as the 25-year-old Rogers, a 2021 Rookie of the Year finalist who stumbled to a 5.47 ERA in 107 frames in 2022, his second full MLB campaign. The 24-year-old Cabrera, meanwhile, has six full years of club control remaining and notched a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings in 2022.

None of that bunch is expensive, with Lopez’s $5.45MM salary leading the way. Finances shouldn’t play a major consideration for the Cardinals anyhow; they’re on pace to roughly match last year’s $163MM payroll, and president of baseball ops John Mozeliak had previously indicated the ability to increase payroll. From Miami’s vantage point, their projected $103MM payroll would be the second-highest mark in club history.

The Marlins are known to be seeking improvements to their lineup and have been prioritizing center field and catcher dating back to last offseason. Miami swung a trade for Pittsburgh catcher Jacob Stallings prior to the 2022 season but saw the former Gold Glove winner turn in a disappointing .233/.292/.292 batting line while his typically high-end defensive grades also cratered. Center field remains an unaddressed need, and Miami again appears likely to take someone better suited for a corner (Bryan De La Cruz) and hope for the best this season.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are deep in outfielders with Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar likely lined up left-to-right at the MLB level. (Rosenthal suggests that of the bunch, Nootbaar is the least likely to change hands.) Top prospect Jordan Walker, who’s likely all but off limits in trade talks, looms behind that group. Alec Burleson, meanwhile, has already gotten some MLB experience, and fellow outfielder Moises Gomez posted big numbers in the upper minors. Behind the plate, the Cards have well-regarded catching prospect Ivan Herrera, who doesn’t exactly have a clear path to a regular role now that Willson Contreras has been signed to a five-year deal.

Certainly, the Cards and Marlins seem to have aligning needs that could lead to a trade, but there’s also no indication that talks are particularly heated. Miami has likely discussed its available starters with more than half the league, given the dearth of viable big league options elsewhere on the trade market. Even the Cards and Marlins themselves don’t know whether a deal will ultimately come together at this juncture, but it’s nevertheless of some note that the two parties have at least held some surface-level talks.

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