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Lorenzo Cain

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Saturday

By Jeff Todd | November 4, 2017 at 1:25am CDT

The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. The Rockies dropped a QO on Michael Cuddyer in 2014, for example, while the Nationals decided against giving one to Edwin Jackson back in the QO’s first year of operation (2012), only to see him sign a four-year deal with the Cubs.

Here’s the latest chatter from around the game:

  • The Royals, unsurprisingly, will issue qualifying offers to each of their three major free agents, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain each feature prominently on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents — indeed, all are rated among the seven most valuable players on the open market — so it’s hardly surprising to learn that K.C. is going in this direction. That said, there had been at least some suggestion that the team had yet to decide on Cain, who is a fair bit older than the other two departing core members of the Royals’ memorable 2014-15 teams. He still figures to be in high demand as the best-available center field on the upcoming market. All told, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where any of these three players accepts the qualifying offer, meaning that the Royals ought to be lined up for a nice haul of draft picks once the dust settles. (Of course, it’s also still possible that one or even more than one of these players will return to Kansas City, in which case no draft compensation would be triggered for that player.)
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Kansas City Royals Eric Hosmer Lorenzo Cain Mike Moustakas

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Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Cobb, Hendry, Snitker, Dickey, Werth

By Steve Adams | October 12, 2017 at 7:21pm CDT

Within his latest AL Notes column, FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes that Royals GM Dayton Moore doesn’t appear to be going anywhere despite rumors about him possibly taking over the Braves’ front office. Moore, who cut his teeth in the front office world as a Braves exec, has been an oft-rumored replacement for John Coppolella in Atlanta following his resignation as general manager.

In other Royals news, the team is planning to give a qualifying offer to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, though the team hasn’t firmly decided on that option just yet, per Heyman. It seems like a no-brainer in my view. Despite the fact that Cain will be 32 next season, he hit .300/.363/.440 season at the plate with15 homers and swiped 26 bases while playing elite center-field defense in 2017. The Royals undoubtedly expect Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas to reject QOs, so the minimal risk of Cain accepting would hardly put an exorbitant strain on payroll, though it’d limit their maneuverability for the remainder of the winter. Cain should be able to shatter that mark even with draft compensation attached to him. Heyman also notes that hitting coach Dale Sveum will now be the team’s bench coach, replacing the departed Don Wakamatsu. As such, the Royals are on the hunt for a new pitching coach and a new hitting coach to step into Sveum’s spot.

A few more items of note…

  • Though payroll is always an issue for the Rays, they’re nonetheless expected to make righty Alex Cobb an $18.1MM qualifying offer, per Heyman. The 30-year-old logged a career-high 179 1/3 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, pitching to a 3.66 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. Cobb should draw widespread interest, though I’d personally imagine that the fact that he’s yet to ever reach even 180 innings in a single season (to say nothing of 2017’s diminished strikeout rate) will limit his marketability to some extent. Still, Cobb should be able to score a more lucrative multi-year deal, and it’s difficult to imagine him accepting a QO.
  • There’s a belief that former Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, currently a special assistant with the Yankees, could be brought over to the Marlins by Derek Jeter, Heyman reports in his NL roundup. He’d work in baseball operations department under president of baseball ops Michael Hill, per Heyman, and while this particular report doesn’t specify a role, MLB Network’s Peter Gammons referred to Hendry as the “anticipated GM” in a column yesterday. Even if Hendry were to assume that title, however, Hill’s status as president of baseball ops would presumably still make him the top decision-maker for the Marlins.
  • The Braves were leaning toward a managerial change before last week’s scandal with now-former GM John Coppolella, Heyman reports. Internal candidates Bo Porter and Ron Washington, both former big league managers, were the leading candidates to take over the dugout, and Heyman writes that one of the two would “likely” have been handed that job. Instead, Brian Snitker will keep his post. Meanwhile, with Moore likely to remain loyal to the Royals, some candidates that are “in the mix,” per Heyman, include former Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, former Marlins general manager Dan Jennings and current Nationals assistant GM Doug Harris.
  • Also on the subject of the Braves, Heyman writes in his NL Notes roundup that the team is waiting for R.A. Dickey to determine whether he wants to play in 2018 or retire. Atlanta would be “happy” to pick up his $8MM option for the 2018 season after he ably served as an innings eater and a veteran mentor to the team’s young pitchers.
  • Though Jayson Werth is 38 years of age and has dealt with injuries in recent years, the well-respected veteran doesn’t appear to have any inclination to call it a career after his seven-year, $126MM contract with the Nationals expires this season. Per Heyman, Werth has stated that he’d like to play another three or four years, at the least, before retiring from the game. Werth struggled in his return from a left foot injury this season but had hit .262/.367/.446 with eight homers, five doubles, a triple and four steals through 196 plate appearances before landing on the shelf in early June.
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Atlanta Braves Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals Alex Cobb Bo Porter Brian Snitker Dayton Moore Jayson Werth Jim Hendry Lorenzo Cain R.A. Dickey Ron Washington

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Central Notes: Cain, Royals, Tribe, Cards, Tigers

By Connor Byrne | October 1, 2017 at 11:23am CDT

The Royals will be reluctant to invest significant money in an outfielder who’s on the wrong side of 30 over the winter, which makes a potential Lorenzo Cain exit seem more likely, Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes. For his part, the 31-year-old Cain (32 next April) realizes his terrific tenure with the Royals could be on the verge of ending. “They all know where I stand as far as coming back to KC,” the impending free agent said. “They know I would love to come back here. I said it in the spring, and I’ll say it again now. But at the same time, everyone has to do what’s best for themselves. No one knows what’s going to happen.” Cain has been outstanding since debuting in earnest with the Royals in 2011, including this year (.301/.364/.442, 15 home runs, 26 stolen bases across 643 plate appearances), and was a key component of an AL pennant winner in 2014 and a World Series champion the next season.

More from the Central divisions:

  • Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway will be a popular managerial candidate in the coming weeks, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. “He’s on everybody’s list,” one executive said of the 42-year-old Callaway, who has been the Tribe’s pitching coach since 2013 and is now in charge of arguably one of the best staffs in baseball history. If Callaway does become a manager in the offseason, it’ll be with the Phillies, Tigers or Mets, barring an unexpected firing elsewhere.
  • Jose Martinez will have an opportunity to win the Cardinals’ first base job in 2018, manager Mike Matheny suggested to reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, on Saturday. “He’s going to fight for it. I don’t know why he couldn’t (be the regular first baseman),” said Matheny, who also named Luke Voit as a candidate for the role. The majority of the work at first this year has gone to franchise linchpin Matt Carpenter, but he could shift back to second/third base next season. Like Carpenter, Martinez has been one of the Cards’ top offensive players in 2017. In his first extensive action in the majors, the 29-year-old rookie has batted an excellent .306/.377/.517 with 14 home runs in 306 PAs. Voit, a 26-year-old rookie, has hit .252/.308/.441 in 120 PAs.
  • Royals left-hander Danny Duffy will undergo surgery Tuesday to remove “loose bodies” from his elbow, per Dodd (Twitter link). Duffy landed on the disabled list Aug. 27 with an elbow impingement, though he did return in mid-September to make three more starts. In the first season of a five-year, $65MM contract extension, Duffy logged a 3.81 ERA over 146 1/3 innings, to go with 8.0 K/9 against 2.52 BB/9.
  • The Tigers announced some additions to their scouting staff and analytics department on Friday, as Jason Beck of MLB.com details. Most notably, the Tigers promoted former utilityman Don Kelly to a full-time scouting role. An eighth-round pick of he Tigers in 2001, Kelly played in Detroit from 2009-14 and, upon his retirement last winter, joined its baseball department on a trial basis.
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Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals Danny Duffy Don Kelly Jose Martinez Lorenzo Cain Luke Voit Matt Carpenter Mickey Callaway

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Heyman’s Latest: Hosmer, Cain, Mariners, deGrom, Dee, Tigers

By Connor Byrne | September 28, 2017 at 7:32pm CDT

Eric Hosmer and a few other big-name Royals are scheduled to hit free agency after the season, but the team is going to make a concerted effort to retain the first baseman, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports. The Royals may offer the Scott Boras client upward of $100MM, which, depending on the exact amount and length, could be a stunning commitment from a franchise that has never given a player more than $72MM (Alex Gordon in 2016). Gordon’s four-year contract has been disastrous thus far, and considering the up-and-down nature of Hosmer’s career, the Royals could be taking a substantial risk in handing him a big-money pact. Although, to the 27-year-old Hosmer’s credit, he has enjoyed an outstanding platform season, having slashed .319/.385/.496 with with 24 home runs in 660 plate appearances.

More offseason-related highlights from Heyman via his latest American League and National League Notes columns:

  • While the Royals will attempt to keep Hosmer, it seems they’re resigned to losing center fielder Lorenzo Cain in free agency. The Royals aren’t optimistic they’ll be able to re-sign Cain, 32, as they’re bracing for him to land a lucrative contract of at least four years. The Mariners may be a fit for him, insiders have suggested to Heyman, who adds that Seattle will also take a look at first basemen Lucas Duda and Mitch Moreland if they hit the open market in the offseason.
  • The Mets will likely try to extend right-hander Jacob deGrom in the coming months, per Heyman. DeGrom has been the only Mets starter to survive their injury onslaught this year, turning in yet another excellent campaign with 201 1/3 innings of 3.53 ERA ball, to go with 10.68 K/9 against 2.64 BB/9. He’s already set to turn 30 next year and still has three arbitration-eligible seasons left, meaning deGrom can’t become a free agent until the age of 32. It could therefore behoove him to get some long-term security over the winter, and Heyman notes that a deal would likely span at least four years. If no agreement comes during the off months, he’ll build on this year’s $4.05MM salary in arbitration.
  • Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon has bounced back from a suspension-shortened 2016 to increase his trade value this year, Heyman writes. Along with providing top-notch defense, Gordon has hit .305/.339/.369 with 57 stolen bases in 678 PAs, which could put him on second base-needy teams’ radars in the offseason. But with either $38MM or $51MM coming his way over the next four years (depending on a $14MM club option or $1MM buyout in 2021), the Marlins may have to eat some money in order to trade the 29-year-old (30 next April), Heyman opines.
  • Giants third base coach Phil Nevin is a “strong candidate” to take over for Brad Ausmus as the Tigers’ manager, according to Heyman. Nevin played with the Tigers from 1996-97 and managed at their Double-A and Triple-A levels from 2010-13. Thanks to his work in the latter capacity, he’s already familiar with Tigers general manager Al Avila.
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Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins New York Mets San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Dee Gordon Eric Hosmer Jacob deGrom Lorenzo Cain Lucas Duda Mitch Moreland Phil Nevin

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Cafardo’s Latest: Mondesi, Vazquez, Lucroy, Miley

By charliewilmoth | September 24, 2017 at 5:46pm CDT

Here are the highlights from Nick Cafardo’s latest column with the Boston Globe:

  • In this year’s Arizona Fall League, MLB could consider using earpieces allowing direct communication between managers, pitchers and catchers, Cafardo writes. Such a move would be designed to help prevent sign-stealing, while also improving the pace of the game by reducing mound conferences.
  • Cafardo notes the strange story developing in the Dominican Republic, where Raul Mondesi — the longtime big-league outfielder and father of the Royals infielder of the same name — has been sentenced to eight years in prison after being convicted of embezzling over $6MM from the city of San Cristobal during his time as mayor there. Mondesi had been involved in Dominican politics since the end of his big-league career in 2005.
  • The Red Sox acknowledge that catcher is a “two-man position,” although manager John Farrell thinks Christian Vazquez could take 110 to 120 starts next year. That means Sandy Leon could lose playing time. Vazquez has batted  .298/.336/.420 this season, including .336/.376/.493 in the second half. Leon hasn’t had a good season and is eligible for arbitration this winter, although it seems very likely, from my perspective, that the Red Sox will bring him back — Blake Swihart has struggled at Triple-A, and Leon is a strong framer who works well with pitchers, including ace Chris Sale.
  • After playing under an extremely team-friendly contract for the last six seasons, Rockies catcher Jonathan Lucroy is heading into free agency on a down note, having batted just  .258/.328/.353 this season (although it’s perhaps worth noting he’s posted a .390 OBP since heading to Denver in late July). Still, Lucroy is only 31 and will likely get a multi-year deal, given his track record and his reputation for terrific work behind the plate. “He’s a solid receiver and he handles a pitching staff well. Those are the two most important things,” a scout tells Cafardo. “The offense is baffling because he’s always been one of the best at his position. You have to take the leap that part will come back.”
  • The Royals could attempt to keep free-agent-to-be Lorenzo Cain this winter, Cafardo writes. At last check, it seemed unlikely the Royals could keep Cain. As Cafardo notes, Cain will turn 32 shortly after the start of the 2018 season. It’s unclear how the significant contract that will likely be required to retain Cain would fit into the Royals’ plans.
  • The Orioles aren’t likely to exercise lefty Wade Miley’s $12MM option, Cafardo writes. That means they’d pay him a $500K buyout. It’s unclear to what extent Cafardo is reporting on Miley’s status based on sources from within Miley’s camp or the Orioles organization, but either way, it does seem likely the Orioles will go in another direction — Miley has posted a 5.52 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in what’s been a very rough 2017 season.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Colorado Rockies Kansas City Royals Christian Vazquez Jonathan Lucroy Lorenzo Cain Sandy Leon Wade Miley

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AL Notes: Cain, Rangers, Bautista, Tribe, Rays

By Connor Byrne | September 24, 2017 at 1:41pm CDT

The Rangers could emerge as suitors for Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain if he reaches free agency in the offseason. Texas has “repeatedly” asked the Royals about Cain in the past, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News reports. Still, considering the Rangers have pressing rotation issues that will require offseason spending, Fraley casts doubt on them forking over big money for Cain. While Rangers center fielder Carlos Gomez is also slated to hit the open market, they may have an in-house replacement lined up in Delino DeShields.

  • With right fielder Jose Bautista likely playing the final home game of his Blue Jays tenure on Sunday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet looks back on the team’s 2008 acquisition of the now-franchise icon and some of his most memorable moments in Toronto. When the Jays picked up Bautista in a trade with the Pirates in August 2008 (for catcher Robinzon Diaz), they were merely looking for a stopgap at third base to fill in for the injured Scott Rolen. “I’m not trying to send the wrong message – this guy isn’t like Mike Schmidt,” then-Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi said. “He’s not going to come out here and hit 40 home runs. But he’s a guy that can hit double-digit home runs for us in a spot where right now we need some help.” Nine years later, Bautista ranks second in Jays history in homers (287), 22 of which have come this season. Unfortunately for both team and player, the 36-year-old’s once-magnificent production began dropping off significantly last season and has cratered in 2017. As an impending free agent, Bautista will move on to a new team or retirement over the winter.
  • Terry Pluto of cleveland.com revisits the 2014 trade in which the Indians acquired right-hander Mike Clevinger from the Angels for reliever Vinnie Pestano. Clevinger has turned into a valuable starter for the Tribe this season, but when the deal went down, he was a struggling 23-year-old at the High-A level who was still working back from a 2012 Tommy John procedure. Unsurprisingly, then, Clevinger was not the Indians’ initial target in talks with the Halos. “I don’t recall who we asked for first,” president Chris Antonetti told Pluto. “It wasn’t Mike.” Nevertheless, the Indians saw enough promise in Clevinger to think he could pan out. “He was striking out a hitter an inning (58 in 55 innings). We felt with some changes to his delivery, he could throw a little harder and get more depth on his breaking ball,” GM Mike Chernoff explained. “There were some ingredients for him to succeed.”
  • Rays catcher Wilson Ramos is one start away from increasing his 2018 salary from $8.5MM to $10.5MM, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes. Ramos needs to make 55 starts this year and not end up on the disabled list with a knee injury in order to collect that money, and it appears he’ll accomplish both feats. The Rays took a risk in signing the former National last winter after he suffered ACL and meniscus tears in his right knee with less than a week remaining in the 2016 regular season. Ramos didn’t debut with the Rays until June, and while he hasn’t come close to matching the stellar offensive and pitch-framing numbers he put up in Washington last year, he has gotten better at the plate as the season has advanced. Overall, the 30-year-old has hit .263/.293/.444 in 210 PAs.
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Cleveland Guardians Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Jose Bautista Lorenzo Cain Mike Clevinger Wilson Ramos

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Rosenthal’s Latest: Royals, Otani, Nationals, Dodgers

By charliewilmoth | September 16, 2017 at 3:53pm CDT

Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video from FOX Sports.

  • The Royals’ best course with potential free agents Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer might be to extend qualifying offers to all of them, Rosenthal opines. That would at least give them a windfall of draft picks if all three players were to sign big contracts elsewhere. The Royals seem to be running out of time to contend, and the extra draft picks would give them a head start on reloading.
  • There has been some chatter about the possibility that teams could circumvent posting rules to lure Shohei Otani by promising to sign him to a small deal now and a big extension in the future. Rosenthal, though, notes that the league would not allow such an arrangement. Of course, as FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out, the signing team would have plausible deniability if it waited to officially strike the second deal until after Otani had played in the Majors for a year, since teams frequently try to sign top young talents to extensions. Such a deal would have to fit in with established precedents, however.
  • The Nationals’ recent promotion of top prospect Victor Robles underscores just how many outfield options the team will have even if Bryce Harper departs via free agency following the 2018 season, Rosenthal says. In addition to Robles, they have Michael Taylor, Adam Eaton and Brian Goodwin, all of whom are under team control for the next several seasons, plus another top young prospect in Juan Soto.
  • The Dodgers’ outstanding depth could allow them to use lefty starter Alex Wood and righty Kenta Maeda as multi-inning relievers in the playoffs, Rosenthal notes. That means the Dodgers would be able to use quick hooks on any starter having a bad outing.
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Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals Eric Hosmer Lorenzo Cain Mike Moustakas Shohei Ohtani

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Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Marlins, Tribe, Tigers, Mets, Yanks, Astros

By Connor Byrne | May 28, 2017 at 2:41pm CDT

With the trade deadline drawing nearer, FanRag’s Jon Heyman lists 70 players who could end up on the block over the next two months. Heyman ranks the players in order of name value and includes the likes of Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, Josh Donaldson and Ryan Braun near the top of the list. Check out the full piece for an in-depth look at which stars and role players might switch uniforms this summer.

Now the latest from Heyman’s American League and National League notes columns:

  • Prior to the season, Royals impending free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer shot down a report that he was seeking a 10-year deal. But there’s still a belief within the organization that he will request something close to a decadelong pact in the coming months, per Heyman, who adds that Hosmer is the soon-to-be free agent the Royals most want to keep. However, Kansas City hasn’t made a serious offer to Hosmer on account of what could be a lofty asking price, and the team expects the 27-year-old to reach free agency. Fellow longtime Royals Mike Moustakas (third base), Lorenzo Cain (center field) and Alcides Escobar (shortstop) are also likely to hit the market in the offseason. Moustakas is the Royals’ biggest priority after Hosmer, suggests Heyman, while they seem resigned to the idea that Cain will find a larger payday elsewhere. Escobar, the weakest player of the four, could re-sign if the price is right. At one point, he was seeking $10MM per year, but his cost has come down thanks to his dreadful offensive start (.174/.203/.228 in 196 plate appearances). Meanwhile, right-hander Ian Kennedy probably won’t opt out of the remaining three years and $49MM left on his contract, Heyman writes.
  • Alex Rodriguez could still factor into the Marlins’ next ownership group if the faction including Tagg Romney, Tom Glavine and Dave Stewart lands the franchise. Given A-Rod’s controversial past, the Romney team is keeping him “at arm’s length” for now; even if they weren’t, Rodriguez isn’t allowed to be part of an ownership group as long as he’s still collecting a salary from the Yankees. The 41-year-old’s contract with the Bombers expires at season’s end. His former teammate Derek Jeter, who’s vying with Jeb Bush and against Romney & Co. to purchase the Marlins, isn’t planning to invest much money, says Heyman. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Bush and Jeter are leading the race to acquire the franchise.
  • Heyman reported in April that the Indians would look to extend first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana, but discussions between the two sides still haven’t taken place. They might not occur, either, as Heyman relays that Santana is likely to hit free agency at season’s end. At .219/.321/.390 in 215 PAs, the 31-year-old hasn’t carried his typically above-average production into this season so far, but he continues to exhibit quality plate discipline with 27 walks against 31 strikeouts. Santana’s walk rate has dropped in each season since 2014, however, and is now at a career-low 12.6 percent.
  • When the offseason rolls around, odds are that Tigers left fielder Justin Upton will not opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM left on his deal, reports Heyman. “Not happening,” one rival general manager said of a potential opt-out. Upton hasn’t lived up to his lucrative contract in his year-plus in Detroit, putting him on track to take the bird-in-the-hand approach.
  • It appears first baseman Lucas Duda is in his final season with the Mets, as Heyman implies that he’s primed to sign elsewhere over the winter. The 31-year-old power hitter has been among the Mets’ top players this season, having slashed .267/.406/.570 with six home runs in 106 PAs, but they do have a well-regarded youngster behind him in Dominic Smith. Baseball America sees Smith, 21, as the game’s 65th-best prospect.
  • Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is making $557,900 this year, according to Heyman, who reported in March that the backstop had agreed to a salary worth more than the minimum of $535K.
  • Add the Astros to the list of teams interested in Cuban shortstop prospect Jose Israel Garcia, who recently became a free agent. The Astros have already exceeded their pool allotment for the 2016-17 international free agent class, which could indicate that they’re looking to sign the 19-year-old Garcia before the period ends June 15.
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Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins New York Mets New York Yankees Alcides Escobar Alex Rodriguez Carlos Santana Derek Jeter Eric Hosmer Gary Sanchez Ian Kennedy Jose Israel Garcia Justin Upton Lorenzo Cain Lucas Duda Mike Moustakas

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Lorenzo Cain

By Jeff Todd | May 24, 2017 at 3:55pm CDT

It’s tempting to look in on pending free agents when they are clearly trending up or down. Sometimes, though, the news is mixed, and that’s the case for Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain.

Cain, 31, emerged as a force in 2014 and fully broke out in the following season. Helping to drive the Royals to a World Series title, Cain slashed .307/.361/.477 with 16 home runs and 28 steals. With top-end grades on his glovework and overall baserunning, he ended the ’15 campaign with 6.4 fWAR and 7.2 rWAR on the ledger.

May 6, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) reacts after hitting a double against the Cleveland Indians during the fourth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Then came an injury-plagued 2016 campaign. Cain and K.C. came crashing back to earth. His power dipped back below league average (.121 isolated slugging) while his ailing hamstring perhaps contributed to slight dips in the field and on the bases. With one more year of arb control to go, that set the stage for a critical 2017 season.

So far, there are signs both of progress and of continued concern. Cain has been in the lineup and has certainly been a quality performer, but he’s lagging again in the power department. Through 183 plate appearances, he has managed only a pair of long balls and carries a meager .101 ISO that rates 19th from the bottom among qualifying hitters. While his batted-ball mix remains at typical levels, and he’s producing a roughly league-average exit velocity, Cain has made soft contact at a 24.8% rate, representing a substantial increase over that peak 2015 campaign (13.8%). Conversely, his hard-hit rate has dipped from 32.2% that year to 26.4% in 2017.

On the positive side, Cain’s walk rate has jumped all the way to 12.0% — a significant boost over his 6.6% career average. He has been more selective and made more frequent contact than in recent years, and if his BABIP (.315) moves back toward his lifetime mark (.343) there’ll be an added boost in the on-base department. Cain is already getting aboard at the same clip (.361) that he did in that excellent 2015 effort. And while there are less extra bases coming from his bat, Cain is back to taking them with his legs. He has already swiped a dozen bags, already nearing last year’s output of 14, and is again grading out as one of the game’s best baserunners.

Cain’s baserunning exploits could be seen as a sign of improved health and continued athleticism. And the same holds true in the field, where he has already compiled five defensive runs saved and 4.2 runs by measure of UZR through 381 1/3 innings — putting him on pace to approach his best seasons in the majors.

What we’re seeing, then, is that Cain continues to deliver a strong baseline of performance even without the pop. If he can begin driving and elevating the ball once more, then the ceiling will surely head northward — both for his anticipated on-field contributions and his potential earnings in the coming winter. The same holds of Cain’s trade value over the summer, when he could well be the best-available outfielder on the market.

Cain’s appeal in free agency will surely be limited by his age — he’ll turn 32 just after the start of his next deal. And the track record of big paydays for glove-first outfielders is limited. It seems a bit of a stretch to imagine him reaching five guaranteed years. Teammate Alex Gordon only got four at the same age, and players like Curtis Granderson, Angel Pagan, and Nick Markakis have all failed to find a fifth year. But it’s perhaps equally difficult to imagine him landing only three, barring an injury like that suffered by Denard Span before he hit the open market.

Ultimately, the question of earnings may hinge upon whether some of that missing power comes back over the summer. Cain’s two closest comps are instructive. If you view him as primarily a speed-and-defense asset, then you could argue that he’ll likely be looking to build off of the somewhat-out-of-date, four-year, $48MM Michael Bourn contract. Bourn was actually significantly younger than Cain will be when he signed that contract, and was coming off of quite a strong season, though of course he couldn’t match Cain’s track record of hitting.

If Cain can rediscover his power stroke, though, then there’d be a good argument that he should match or exceed the $16.5MM average annual value achieved by Dexter Fowler this past winter. (Fowler achieved that AAV over five years, but he’s the same age as Cain and hit the market a season earlier.) After all, Cain was the better all-around player at their respective peaks. And, if he is indeed traded this summer, he’d hit the open market without the same qualifying-offer burden that impacted both Bourn and Fowler.

Indeed, it’s even possible that Cain could challenge for Gordon’s deal ($72MM over four years) if he really turns it on in the second half and the supply-and-demand calculus ends up being favorable. A glance at the still-developing market shows that Cain’s top competition might come from players like Carlos Gomez, Jarrod Dyson, and Jon Jay. With several big-budget organizations potentially in need of a center fielder this winter, there’s some upside left for Cain to pursue over the next 117 games.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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Free Agent Stock Watch Kansas City Royals MLBTR Originals Lorenzo Cain

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Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Royals, D-backs, Brewers

By Connor Byrne | May 20, 2017 at 8:13pm CDT

The Mets have not resumed contract extension talks with second baseman Neil Walker, and it’s doubtful they will before the offseason, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). New York would rather enter the winter with flexibility at various positions than commit to Walker, with whom it discussed a three-year deal in the $40MM range before tabling talks in February. Walker, 31, is on a $17.2MM salary after accepting a qualifying offer last fall, and has returned from a season-ending back injury in 2016 to post a decent .255/.327/.423 line in 168 plate appearances this year.

More from Rosenthal:

  • Center fielder Lorenzo Cain might end up as the Royals’ most valuable trade asset in the coming months, posits Rosenthal, who relays that the team isn’t convinced first baseman Eric Hosmer would bring back a “sufficient return.” Hosmer’s hitting a solid .299/.362/.408 in 174 PAs, but that’s not great production relative to his position, and first base typically isn’t an in-demand area around the deadline, notes Rosenthal. The same goes for third base, which could make it difficult for the Royals to move Mike Moustakas – another of their high-profile impending free agents – for a sizable return. Meanwhile, pitchers Jason Vargas, Kelvin Herrera and Mike Minor are also names to watch as the Royals potentially prepare to sell.
  • With a 25-18 record and a plus-43 run differential, the Diamondbacks don’t look like sellers in the making, admits Rosenthal. Nevertheless, the D-backs are going to have to replenish their barren farm system at some point, says Rosenthal, who reports they’re likely to entertain offers for center fielder A.J. Pollock and left-hander Patrick Corbin prior to the trade deadline and/or in the offseason. Both players are only signed for another year, putting their futures in question.
  • As is the case with Arizona, Milwaukee has easily outperformed expectations thus far. The Brewers entered Saturday having posted the same record as Arizona (25-18, with a plus-34 run differential), and their success is a “potential nightmare” for general manager David Stearns, one executive told Rosenthal. It’s doubtful Stearns believes the franchise’s rebuild is complete, yet owner Mark Attanasio might push to add, not subtract, if Milwaukee hangs around the playoff race in the coming months, per Rosenthal. To their credit, the first-place Brewers currently rank among the majors’ top 10 teams in runs scored (second), wRC+ (eighth) and pitching fWAR (eighth).
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Arizona Diamondbacks Kansas City Royals Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets A.J. Pollock Eric Hosmer Jason Vargas Kelvin Herrera Lorenzo Cain Mike Minor Mike Moustakas Neil Walker Patrick Corbin

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