Luis Arraez

Infielder Luis Arraez spoke today to Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, saying that he has not had any extension talks with the Marlins, though he would be open to the idea if they approached him. “They haven’t talked to me about an extension, but if they do, I’m available,” he said. “I love Miami, I love my teammates. I feel at home when I play with those guys.”

Arraez, 27 in April, came over to the Marlins from the Twins in a trade prior to 2023. His first season with Miami saw him produce in fairly similar fashion to his time in Minnesota, as a high-contact bat that’s extremely tough to strike out. He was punched out in just 5.5% of his plate appearances, easily the lowest among qualified hitters, as Jeff McNeil was second at 10%. Arraez flirted with .400 for a while but his batting average eventually finished at a still-excellent .354. He added 10 home runs and his total offensive contributions translated to a wRC+ of 132, indicating he was 32% better than the league average hitter.

He’s generally not considered as gifted on his defense as he is with a bat in his hands. At his primary position of second base, he’s been graded as worth two Defensive Runs Saved in his career and Ultimate Zone Rating has him at almost exactly league average. Outs Above Average, however, isn’t enthused at all. Arraez is currently at -25 OAA in his career, with a tally of -10 in 2023 alone. The Twins had moved him off that spot and into a first base role prior to the trade but the Marlins put him back at the keystone this year.

Perhaps the Fish will move Arraez to first base down the line, but he fits better at second for the time being. First baseman Josh Bell triggered his player option and will be staying in Miami for one more season, barring a trade. Arraez can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons and could perhaps move over to first after Bell hits free agency a year from now. As a Super Two player, Arraez has already had a couple of passes through arbitration, making $2.125M in 2022 and $6.1MM this year with two more to go. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $10.8MM next year.

Given his unique skill set, finding a perfect comparison for an extension is a bit tricky. McNeil, mentioned above, is a similar contact-over-power player who was between four and five years of service time a year ago when he signed a four-year, $50MM extension with the Mets, $12.5MM average annual value, with a club option for 2027. McNeil wasn’t a Super Two player and had only banked $3MM in his first pass through arb. He was also significantly older, going into his age-31 season, whereas Arraez is only going to be 27 next year. However, McNeil is considered a better all-around player and stronger defender, grading out well at second base, third base and the outfield corners. He had accrued 15.9 wins above replacement at the time of that deal, according to FanGraphs, while Arraez is currently at 10.6. Baseball Reference is a bit kinder to Arraez, 15.2 bWAR, since it uses DRS while FanGraphs uses a hybrid of UZR and OAA.

Arraez should be able to argue for a larger contract than the one McNeil got based on his youth and greater leverage from his Super Two-boosted salary. But on the other hand, if he is destined to move off an up-the-middle position eventually, that will subtract from his appeal and perhaps reduce the willingness of the Marlins to make a long-term investment in him. Arraez reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Twins prior to 2022, though that was presumably far lower than any offer he would receive now. At that point, he was just about to go into arbitration for the first time and was coming off a relative down year in 2021. Since then, he’s had two excellent seasons while banking over $8MM.

If the Marlins do have interest in betting on Arraez for the long term, there is little stopping them at the moment. They don’t generally run high payrolls but also have almost nothing on the books in the future. Sandy Alcantara and Avisaíl García are the only players with contracts for 2025, with that being the last guaranteed year for Garcia.

Newly acquired infielder Luis Arraez has won an arbitration hearing against the Marlins, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The MVP Sports Group client will be paid $6.1MM rather than the $5MM figure originally submitted by his now-former team, the Twins.

Miami acquired Arraez, 25, in the trade that sent right-hander Pablo Lopez, top prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio to Minnesota last month. His win in arb hearing comes on the heels of a .316/.375/.420 batting line that netted him an American League batting title in 2022. Arraez notched career-highs in games played (144), plate appearances (603), doubles (31) and homers (8) this past season.

All of that surely factored into his win over his new team, and he’ll now receive a 187% raise over last year’s $2.125MM salary. This was the infielder’s second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, and he’ll be arbitration-eligible two more times before reaching free agency after the 2025 season.

The Marlins acquired Arraez in something of a high-risk gambit, hoping that his improved offense will offset the inherent defensive downgrade of swapping him in at second base and moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field. That’s not to suggest Chisholm can’t be a solid center field — he certainly has the tools and athleticism to handle the position — but he’s been a plus defender at second base in his career while Arraez has been below-average. And, Chisholm will now have to learn a new position on the fly. It’s a move that carries risk, but there’s no denying that Miami’s lineup looks deeper with Arraez hitting at or near the top than it did previously.

With Arraez’s salary now set, the Marlins project for a payroll in the roughly $103MM range, per Roster Resource. That still has a bit of room to change even without further additions, as the Fish still have two pending arbitration cases. Utilityman Jon Berti and left-hander Jesus Luzardo both exchanged figures with the club. Berti filed a $2.3MM figure to the team’s $1.9MM submission, while Luzardo came in at $2.45MM to the Marlins’ $2.1MM. Those are trivial sums to any team in the grand scheme of things, but as we’ve explored at MLBTR in the past, the battle over those sums is more about managing salaries years down the road — even for future classes of players, as arbitration is a precedent-based system — rather than present-day savings.