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Nick Pivetta

Free Agent Faceoff: Luis Severino/Nick Pivetta

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The market for starting pitching this winter has moved a bit more rapidly than the rest of free agency so far, with lefties Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi both having already found new homes with the Dodgers and Angels, respectively. This year’s pitching market is characterized by the depth of quality arms available, however, and plenty of solid pitchers still remain available. One quirk of this year’s class is that the vast majority of top-tier, and even mid-tier, starting pitchers received Qualifying Offers. Snell and Kikuchi were both exceptions to that, and other exceptions such as Jack Flaherty and Nathan Eovaldi remain on the table, but the majority of mid-rotation or better arms available this winter are attached to draft pick compensation.

The volume of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended the QO this winter. Those three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Nick Martinez. While Martinez opted to accept the QO and stick with the Reds on a one-year deal worth north of $21MM, both Pivetta and Severino opted to reject the QO in search of a multi-year deal in free agency. As both pitchers are already on the wrong side of 30, that’s a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to land longer term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have considerable upside and could provide solid value for their new club if they pitch to their potential, but both also have noticeable red flags in their profiles that could give teams pause.

Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and asserted himself as the ace of the Yankees rotation with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP across 66 starts from 2017-19. Since that peak performance, the right-hander missed nearly three full regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him the majority of 2019 followed by Tommy John surgery, which wiped out 2020 and almost all of his 2021 campaign. His next two seasons also saw him wind up bitten by the injury bug, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. While 2022 saw him look mostly like himself when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts, 2023 saw his performance take a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino was torched for a 6.65 ERA and 6.14 FIP. That production was 35% worse than league average, and left him to enter free agency last winter surrounded by plenty of question marks.

The right-hander generally answered those questions after taking a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and throwing 182 innings. With that said, his results were clearly diminished relative to his peak as he posted a 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) and a 4.21 FIP that cast him more as a league average pitcher than one capable of fronting a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents from 2017 to 2022 and walking just 6.6%, both figures trended in the wrong direction this year as he punched out batters at a 21.2% clip and allowed free passes to 7.9% of hitters. He made up for that somewhat by posting his strongest groundball rate in years, however, with a 46% figure that ranked 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino’s fastball velocity isn’t far off from where it was at his peak, which could provide optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue as a quality third or fourth starter going forward.

Pivetta, by contrast, has been regarded all throughout his career as a high-potential arm with electric stuff. That hasn’t changed even as he’s gotten into his 30s, but he’s still yet to put up the type of quality, front-of-the-rotation production that stuff models have projected for him all throughout his career. The righty had a season in 2024 that’s become typical of him during his years since being shipped from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings of work, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. Those ratios are actually even better than Severino’s numbers throughout his peak, but Pivetta is held back by a proclivity towards allowing homers.

He’s never allowed less than 20 long balls in a 162-game season with 102 allowed over his four years as a regular in Boston. That’s tied with Kikuchi for the fifth-most in the league over that time, behind only Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Lyles. Severino allows his fair share of home runs as well, but when accounting for the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 homers allowed this year and Pivetta’s 28 is stark. With that said, it’s undeniably that Pivetta’s high-octane stuff offers more upside than Severino at this point in his career; if a club has a pitcher-friendly ballpark or a plan to help Pivetta control his homer-happy tendencies, it’s easy to see why they’d be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old’s upside.

If you were looking to sign a mid-rotation righty to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock down Severino’s volume and quality mid-rotation production despite his lengthy injury history? Or would you rather roll the dice on Pivetta’s upside and more consistent health track record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency brought on by frequent homers?

Cubs Rumors: Rotation Market, Bellinger, Bullpen, Catcher

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The Cubs’ focus this offseason has reportedly been on pitching, and while Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports that’s very much still the case, he also throws some cold water on the idea of Chicago making a major strike in free agency. Sharma’s colleague, Patrick Mooney, reported less than three weeks ago that the Cubs planned to “aggressively” pursue starters who could help near the top end of the rotation, but Sharma now writes that the “top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out.” That would seemingly remove the Cubs from the running for Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried, at the very least.

It’s the latest signal of a measured offseason approach, even at a time when the Cubs’ division appears ripe for the taking. The Cardinals are scaling back payroll and focusing more on player development in 2025 than on putting a playoff-caliber roster on the field. The Brewers, one year after trading Burnes, now seem likely to lose Willy Adames in free agency — and they could also trade closer Devin Williams. The Pirates and Reds have yet to break out as perennial contenders in the Central. Logically speaking, the deep-pocketed Cubs could take an aggressive stance and position themselves well in a wide-open division field.

For now, it seems they’ll shop primarily in the second and third tiers of the rotation market. Sharma points out that the Cubs have typically shied away from starters who’ve been attached to qualifying offers, though it’s worth noting that the Cubs were willing to part with draft picks and international funds in order to sign Dansby Swanson after he rejected a qualifying offer. They technically signed Cody Bellinger after he rejected a QO … though that offer came from the Cubs themselves, so they were really only “forfeiting” the theoretical comp pick they’d have received if he signed elsewhere.

Assuming the Burnes/Snell/Fried trio isn’t being considered by president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his staff, the Cubs will be looking at the next tier, with Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino among the options. Of that group, Manaea, Pivetta and Severino rejected QOs and would cost the Cubs their second-highest pick and $500K of international space in their 2025 draft pool.

There are certainly names in that bunch who’d represent upgrades over incumbent starters at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga form a nice one-two punch atop the in-house rotation, and the Cubs will follow them with veteran Jameson Taillon and young Javier Assad. Candidates for the fifth spot include Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cade Horton. It’s a nice bunch of arms, but there’s some uncertainty in at least the fifth spot, if not the fourth. Assad posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 29 starts but did so with worse-than-average strikeout, walk and home-run rates. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (4.72) are far less bullish than his earned run average.

Looking at the team’s payroll, the Cubs should have some spending room. RosterResource projects a $180MM payroll at the moment — $34MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. That includes a full arbitration class that could include some non-tender candidates (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather).

The Cubs could also explore other ways to drop their payroll further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that the team could be looking to move Bellinger, though there are plenty of roadblocks to doing so. Bellinger is owed a $27.5MM salary in 2025 and a $5MM buyout on a 2026 player option. If he plays well for a season, the acquiring team would effectively be getting Bellinger at $32.5MM. That’s a hefty price tag in general and particularly for the 2024 version of Bellinger. While he played at an extremely high level in 2023, Bellinger was more of an above-average regular in 2024. A lack of impact left-handed bats and viable center fielders could still lead a team to consider the possibility, it’s hard to imagine a team giving a meaningful return and taking on the remainder/majority of Bellinger’s salary.

Still, moving Bellinger is also one of the only ways for the Cubs to plausibly pursue upgrades to the everyday lineup in 2025. As we noted when listing Bellinger near the back of our list of offseason trade candidates, the Cubs’ roster is already filled with expensive veterans who have no-trade clauses (Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki) or generally productive and affordable younger players like Michael Busch, Isaac Paredes and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nico Hoerner might’ve been a trade candidate and could still be — but he also underwent flexor tendon surgery one month ago. Obviously, that cuts down on his appeal. The Cubs have a clear opening for an upgrade at catcher, but the free agent market offers little in the way of meaningful help there.

All of those challenges to upgrading the lineup make a notable splash on the pitching side of things feel more logical, but it seems the Cubs don’t feel similarly — at least not with regard to free agent starters. There are upgrades to be had on the bullpen market, of course, but the Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year deal to a reliever since Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Last winter’s $9MM guarantee to Hector Neris was the largest bullpen expenditure the Cubs have made since signing Kimbrel.

It’s possible the Cubs could just look to the trade market for much of their offseason dealing. The Cubs have a deep farm system with multiple top prospects whose path to a regular role at Wrigley is blocked. There aren’t, however, many impact arms or high-profile arms expected to be available. Crosstown ace Garrett Crochet headlines the offseason class of trade candidates, but demand for him will be fierce and trades of significance between the two Chicago clubs, while not unprecedented (Jose Quintana, Craig Kimbrel), also aren’t common.

There probably are still additional trades on the horizon for the Cubs. Sharma writes that this week’s acquisitions of reliever Eli Morgan from the Guardians and backup catcher Matt Thaiss from the Angels do not mean the Cubs are content in those areas. They’ll continue to explore both free agency and trades for help in those portions of the roster. But if pitching help remains their focus and they’re unwilling to shop in the high-rent district for starters, the Cubs will need to either break tradition with their free agent bullpen targets, get creative on the trade market, be content to address the middle ranks of the starting staff — or a combination of all the above.

12 Players Decline Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 13 qualified free agents have declined the QO, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The exception was Nick Martinez, who accepted the $21.05MM offer from the Reds over the weekend.

The players who rejected the offer:

There wasn’t much intrigue by the time this afternoon’s deadline officially rolled around. Martinez, Pivetta and perhaps Severino were the only players who seemed like they’d consider the QO. All three made their decisions fairly early in the 15-day window that they had to weigh the offer.

All 12 players who declined the QO have a case for at least a three-year contract. Soto is looking at the biggest deal (in terms of net present value) in MLB history. Burnes, Fried, Adames, Bregman, Alonso and potentially Santander could land nine figures. Severino, Manaea, Hernández and Pivetta look like they’ll land three- or four-year deals. Walker could get to three years as well, though it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his age limits him to a two-year pact at a high average annual value.

A team that signs these players will take a hit to its draft stock and potentially its bonus pool slot for international amateurs. The penalties vary depending on the team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk covered the forfeitures for every team last month. A team would not forfeit a pick to re-sign its own qualified free agent, though it would lose the right to collect any kind of compensation.

If these players walk, their former teams will receive an extra draft pick. The Brewers, Orioles and Diamondbacks are in line for the highest compensation as revenue sharing recipients. If their players sign elsewhere for at least $50MM (a virtual lock in the cases of Burnes, Santander and Adames), the compensation pick would fall after the first round of next year’s draft. If the player signs for less than $50MM — which could be the case if Walker is limited to two years — the compensation pick would land before the start of the third round (roughly 70th overall).

The Red Sox neither received revenue sharing nor paid the competitive balance tax. They’ll get a pick before the third round if Pivetta walks regardless of the value of his contract. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Braves and Astros all paid the tax in 2024. They’ll get a pick after the fourth round if any of their players depart — potentially three picks, in the Mets’ case. The prospects selected by that point — usually around 130th overall — tend not to be highly touted, but each extra selection could carry a slot value north of $500K to devote to next year’s draft bonus pool.

Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.

Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).

Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.

Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).

It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.

Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.

Breslow: Red Sox Looking To “Raise The Ceiling” In Rotation

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The Red Sox look to be one of the top suitors for impact starting pitching. As teams laid the groundwork for the offseason at this week’s GM Meetings, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested the Sox are evaluating ways to land a top-flight starter.

“We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation,” Breslow said (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). “I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”

The most straightforward solution is through free agency. Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell headline the rotation class. Max Fried and Jack Flaherty aren’t far behind. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea all project as mid-rotation arms and should be available on shorter-term deals based on their ages. Eovaldi is probably looking at a two-year pact with a lofty annual value, while Manaea and Kikuchi should get three or four years.

Snell and Burnes are the unquestioned aces. Fried is a little more of a borderline ace but he’d slot into the top two spots in any rotation. Flaherty has flashed ace-caliber ability, albeit with less consistency. They’d all project as the #1 starter in Boston. The Red Sox have a group of quality mid-rotation starters but don’t have a true #1 arm.

Tanner Houck is the closest thing to an ace among the internal options. He’s coming off an excellent year, turning in a 3.12 ERA through 30 starts. Houck’s profile is built more around huge ground-ball numbers than swinging strikes. Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford each took 30+ starts with earned run averages narrowly below 4.50. They fit into the middle of a rotation. So does Lucas Giolito, who’ll be back after missing all of 2024 due to elbow surgery. Giolito has performed like a #2 starter at his best, but home run issues led him to post an ERA approaching 5.00 in both 2022 and ’23.

The Sox are awaiting word from Nick Pivetta on whether he’ll return. Boston somewhat surprisingly tagged Pivetta with a $21.05MM qualifying offer. The right-hander has until November 19 to decide whether to accept. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that while Pivetta is weighing the QO, he has found a nice market in free agency’s opening days.) As with the rest of the Sox’s in-house options, he projects as more of a third or fourth starter. Pivetta has the strikeout and walk profile of a top-end arm, but he has been very susceptible to the longball over his career. He has been a durable source of innings but doesn’t have a single sub-4.00 ERA showing on his résumé.

Boston has a few interesting depth arms beyond that. Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts performed well when called upon. Garrett Whitlock could be back from UCL surgery in the second half, though his injury history could point to a return to the bullpen. Quinn Priester is a former top prospect who hasn’t put things together at the MLB level.

The Red Sox have good rotation depth, especially if Pivetta accepts the QO. There’s certainly value in not giving starts to sub-replacement level pitchers. The Sox are well positioned to do that, but it’d be difficult to compete for an AL East title without having a legitimate #1 starter.

Boston should have the payroll capacity to make a run at one of the top starters. They also have the high-end prospect capital to push for any trade candidates. Garrett Crochet could be the prize of the rotation trade market. He flashed ace upside in his first season as a starting pitcher. The White Sox are likely to move him this offseason. Chicago GM Chris Getz said they’ll target position player help in trade returns.

Boston has four hitters who landed among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects. A trade involving top 10 talents Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer would be a shock, but catcher Kyle Teel or breakout infielder Kristian Campbell could center a return for a high-end starter. Boston could also deal lefty-hitting outfielder Wilyer Abreu for pitching help if they’re confident Anthony will be a productive MLB player next year.

There’s been some speculation about the Sox moving young first baseman Triston Casas as well, but Breslow shot that notion down this week. “I’m not sure where that’s coming from,” Boston’s front office leader said (X link via Christopher Smith of MassLive). “Casas is a guy that we think has 40-home run potential. He’s young and also has a great strike zone discipline and controls an at-bat. We’re excited he’s on our team.”

In addition to the rotation pursuit, Boston needs to land bullpen help. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each hit free agency. While a Martin return is possible, Jansen is almost certainly signing elsewhere. Liam Hendriks should be back from Tommy John surgery and could pitch in the ninth inning behind Rule 5 breakout Justin Slaten. There’s room for another leverage arm, especially one who throws left-handed.

Breslow acknowledged that the Red Sox are looking for lefty bullpen help to add a late-inning arm alongside Cam Booser and Brennan Bernardino (Smith link). Breslow also spoke generally about wanting to add velocity and a swing-and-miss element to the relief group. Boston relievers ranked 23rd in strikeout rate and 26th in swinging strike percentage this year. Free agency’s top reliever, Tanner Scott, is a lefty who throws in the upper 90s and misses bats in bunches. He’s well above the rest of the left-handed class, so he could command a four-year deal that exceeds $50MM.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Red Sox Issue Qualifying Offer To Nick Pivetta

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The Red Sox issued a qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, who first suggested a Pivetta QO was possible, added that Tyler O’Neill will not receive the QO. Pivetta and his representatives at CAA have until November 19 to decide whether to accept.

Boston’s decision comes as at least a moderate surprise. Pivetta has been a consistent source of innings but has never quite managed high-end results. He doesn’t have a single season with an earned run average under 4.00. Pivetta consistently posts fantastic strikeout and walk numbers, but a propensity for hard contact and the home run ball deals a hit to his overall results.

The Sox have yet to quite unlock Pivetta’s full upside. They’re willing to make a significant one-year commitment to take another shot. If Pivetta accepts the offer, he’d rejoin a rotation that’ll also include Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and potentially Kutter Crawford and Richard Fitts. The Sox should welcome Lucas Giolito back from injury in the season’s first half. There’s a decent amount of depth, particularly if Pivetta returns, though the group is still lacking a true #1 arm.

Boston neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing this past season. That puts them in the middle tier of QO compensation. If Pivetta walks, the Sox would receive a pick between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the third round in the 2025 draft.

Red Sox Notes: Refsnyder, Whitlock, Pivetta

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Back in August, Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder seemed uncertain about whether he wanted to continue his playing career in 2025 or begin working towards his post-playing goal of moving into a front office role somewhere in the sport. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported this evening, however, that Refsnyder now appears to have made up his mind to continue playing in 2025.

“I’ll be 34 in spring training. I could see myself playing for a couple more years honestly, if the situation is right,” Refsnyder said, as relayed by Cotillo. “Especially if I’m here.”

Refsnyder has made his desire to remain in Boston abundantly clear, and it seems all but certain his wish will be granted at least for next season. The Red Sox hold a $2MM club option of the 33-year-old for next year, a bargain price considering his excellent production with the club this season. In 307 trips to the plate across 93 games played this year, Refsnyder has slashed an excellent .283/.359/.471 (130 wRC+) in his part time role as a backup outfielder and platoon bat against left-handed pitching. Overall, Refsnyder has posted a solid .278/.367/.427 slash line (121 wRC+) with 18 homers and 10 steals in 727 plate appearances since he first donned a Red Sox uniform back in 2022.

Refsnyder’s likely return will place him in the midst of what is sure to be a very crowded outfield mix next season. While Tyler O’Neill figures to become a free agent this winter, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu both appear poised to return to the club. Meanwhile, Ceddanne Rafaela has split time between the outfield and infield this year but is best suited to playing center field, where he excels defensively. That leaves the club with a full outfield before even considering the fact that top prospect Roman Anthony is banging on the door to the majors and figures to be ready for big league action as soon as early 2025, and it’s even possible that the club could look to re-sign O’Neill or a similarly capable right-handed slugger this winter. The DH offers little help in breaking up the logjam in Boston either due to the presence of Masataka Yoshida, who remains under contract through the end of the 2027 season.

Given the glut of outfield talent available to the Red Sox for the moment, it would hardly be a shock to see the club pursue a trade this winter, perhaps leveraging that outfield depth in order to bolster the club’s pitching staff. The rotation in Boston has been quite good with a 3.77 ERA that ranks top five in the majors this year, but a bullpen that posted a lackluster 4.44 ERA this year and figures to lose both Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin in free agency is an obvious place for potential improvement. With that being said, it’s also possible the bullpen could get some internal reinforcements headed into next year.

Right-hander Garrett Whitlock underwent an internal brace surgery on his right elbow back in May and has been working his way back to the mound ever since, with Cotillo among those to note that he threw a baseball for the first time since going under the knife recently. As Whitlock works his way back in hopes of a healthier 2025 season, Cotillo notes that after years of both the righty and the Red Sox believing he was a long-term rotation piece for the club, Whitlock is now more focused on staying healthy.

“Honestly, I’ve told them, whatever can keep me healthy (is the best role),” Whitlock said yesterday, as relayed by Cotillo. “That’s where I’m at. We’re going to dive in with medical and see where that goes.”

If Boston brass and Whitlock believe that a move to the bullpen could help keep the righty healthier going forward, that would add a potential high-leverage arm to the club’s mix that could help them to make up for the impending losses of Jansen and Martin. The right-hander sports a strong 3.39 ERA overall for his career, but that figure plummets to a sparkling 2.65 when looking only at his 132 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen. Combined with his 28.1% career strikeout rate out of the bullpen, it’s easy to imagine Whitlock becoming one of the game’s most fearsome relievers if he fully committed to the role.

A move to the bullpen for Whitlock would leave the club with a hole in the rotation, however, and that would only be further exacerbated by the impending departure of veteran righty Nick Pivetta. It’s been a solid year for the 31-year-old hurler, as he’s posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.06 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work that should make him an attractive option for clubs in need of help towards the back of their rotation this winter. That’s a description that fits the Red Sox, who currently have only Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello penciled into their rotation. Lucas Giolito figures to return from elbow surgery at some point next year, and the club has solid depth options like Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell available as well, but there’s plenty of room in the club’s starting mix another addition.

Even so, it’s unclear if a return to Boston is in the cards for Pivetta next year. The right-hander told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe recently that there have been no talks between he and the front office about extending their relationship beyond this season, though he did express an openness to returning to Boston next year. With that being said, after a disappointing season that’s seen the club finish in the vicinity of .500, it’s possible that the club could look to improve its rotation by signing a more impactful free agent than Pivetta. Former Red Sox hurler Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Sean Manaea are among the mid-rotation arms that figure to be available this winter who would likely represent an upgrade over Pivetta for Boston.

AL West Notes: Astros, Pivetta, Jung, Mariners, Martinez

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The Astros had a “very high” amount of interest in Nick Pivetta prior to the trade deadline, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  No deal was worked out between Houston and Boston, naturally, as the Red Sox were still in contention and opted against moving Pivetta or any other impending free agents.  The Astros instead pivoted to landing Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays in what was arguably the most impactful trade of deadline season, as Kikuchi’s dominance dominance since coming to Houston has been a key factor in the Astros’ run to the AL West crown.

Pivetta made his final start of the 2024 campaign yesterday, and the right-hander finishes his eighth MLB season with a 4.14 ERA over 145 2/3 innings, as well as very strong strikeout (28.9%) and walk (6.1) rates.  Pivetta’s success was limited by a propensity for allowing hard contact and a lot of home runs, but all in all, he has made a solid case for himself as he enters free agency in advance of his age-32 season.  On paper, the Astros’ mix of younger arms and veteran starters returning from injury should help the team make up for the possible departures of Kikuchi and Justin Verlander in free agency, yet the “you can never have enough pitching” cliche is a persuasive counter-argument.  Bolstering the group with a mid-tier option like Pivetta could be an attractive option to the Astros this winter.

Some other items from the AL West…

  • A CT scan on Josh Jung’s surgically-repaired right wrist revealed no structural damage, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News).  Jung missed most of the season after undergoing the surgery in early April, and was still bothered by some discomfort in his wrist after returning to the field in late July.  The Rangers ended Jung’s season with an IL placement earlier this week, and Bochy said that the third baseman’s shutdown period will involve “complete rest for a couple of weeks and then we’ll test it and see where he’s at.”  Jung hit only .248/.278/.367 in 169 plate appearances following his surgery.
  • The Mariners’ offense has been one of the best in baseball since Edgar Martinez assumed hitting coach duties on August 23, yet it isn’t clear if Martinez will be back in the job next season.  The Seattle Times’ Adam Jude writes that the club has already started looking for a new hitting coach, though the M’s would seemingly love having Martinez return, if he is willing to take on the daily grind of a coaching role over a full season.  The possibility exists that the Mariners could both hire a new top hitting coach and still retain Martinez, as Jude suggests that Martinez could stay on as a coach for just home games, in order to cut down on the travel.

Red Sox Place Tyler O’Neill On 10-Day IL, Activate Chris Martin

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The Red Sox announced a series of roster moves this evening, headlined by the club placing outfielder Tyler O’Neill on the 10-day injured list due to a left leg infection. The move is retroactive to August 4. Replacing O’Neill on the active roster is infielder Enmanuel Valdez, who has been recalled to the big league roster, and the Red Sox also activated right-hander Chris Martin from the 15-day IL. Lefty Cam Booser was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Martin.

O’Neill, 29, was acquired from the Cardinals over the offseason and has enjoyed an excellent campaign during his first season in Boston. In 342 trips to the plate this season, the 29-year-old has slashed an excellent .268/.357/.544 (142 wRC+) with 16 doubles and 22 homers. While he’s striking out at a hefty 31.9% clip, he’s paired those strong power numbers with a solid 11.1% walk rate that has given him a more well-rounded profile than he flashed in his career-best 2021 campaign when he crushed 34 homers and posted a 143 wRC+ but walked at a clip of just 7.1%.

The slugger’s performance this year seems likely to line the pending free agent up for hefty raise in free agency this winter, although one red flag for O’Neill has been his frequent trips to the shelf. After suffering hamstring, back, foot, and shoulder injuries during his final two seasons with St. Louis, he’s now made three trips to the shelf with the Red Sox this year: once for a concussion in April, once due to knee inflammation in May, and now today’s most recent ailment that manager Alex Cora described to reporters (including Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe) as a worsening infection on his left leg that has caused swelling.

The silver lining in O’Neill’s repeated trips to the IL this year is that they’ve all been fairly short-lived, and Cora indicated that this one should be more of the same as he’s likely to be activated once eligible to return next week. In the meantime, the Red Sox figure to turn to some combination of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder in the outfield. With Rafaela frequenting the outfield in recent days, Valdez should help to shore up the club’s middle infield mix alongside David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, and Romy Gonzalez. The 25-year-old enjoyed a strong rookie season in 2023 but has taken a step back this year with a .226/.282/.402 slash line in 182 trips to the plate at the big league level.

As for Martin, the right-hander’s return to action is welcome news for a beleaguered Red Sox bullpen that has been second-worst in the majors since the start of July, ahead of only the White Sox. The 38-year-old veteran sports a solid 3.42 ERA with a matching 3.40 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work this year and is coming off an even better season in 2023 where he dominated to the tune of an eye-popping 1.05 ERA in 55 appearances. Adding Martin to the late-inning mix to be the primary set-up man for closer Kenley Jansen should further shore up a bullpen that got reinforcements in the form of Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia prior to the trade deadline. He’ll take the roster spot of Booser, who heads to Triple-A to become the club’s top depth option with an excellent 2.77 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 39 innings of work this year.

While the bullpen will hopefully be revitalized by the return of Martin, Cora suggested to reporters today (including Abraham) that the Red Sox intend to skip right-hander Nick Pivetta’s next start. While the veteran righty doesn’t appear to be injured, Cora indicated that he’s “not responding well” coming out of his last start and that the club had some concerns about a dip in his velocity. With a day off scheduled tomorrow, the Red Sox will be able to utilize the rest of their rotation on regular rest without needing to call up another arm to take the spot on Pivetta. The righty has a middling 4.44 ERA through 18 starts this year thanks primarily due to a trio of brutal outings his last three times out that have seen him surrender 13 runs (12 earned) in 14 innings of work while serving up six home runs.

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