NL West Notes: Flores, Jefferies, Thomas, Grichuk, Buehler
Giants first baseman Wilmer Flores exited before the second inning of today’s game against the Padres after falling into the opposing dugout while attempting to catch a foul ball. He initially stayed in the game but was replaced by a pinch hitter before his first plate appearance. During the game, the team told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that Flores had suffered a right shoulder contusion. Afterward, Pavlovic added that the first baseman also had a cut on his finger and the Giants will reevaluate his condition tomorrow. Flores confirmed to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he had not hit his head.
Flores, 32, is coming off a career year for the Giants, in which he hit 22 doubles and 23 home runs with an .863 OPS over 126 games. His overall defensive metrics were not particularly impressive, but as usual, he did his best work at first base, producing 6 DRS and 1 OAA. He made just two errors in 61 games.
In additional Giants news, starting pitcher Daulton Jefferies also left the game early on Sunday, after giving up nine runs (five earned) in just two innings of work. According to Slusser, the righty felt some discomfort in his left hip. Like Flores, he will be re-evaluated tomorrow.
Jefferies, 28, had his contract officially selected today, ahead of his first MLB start in nearly two years. He underwent surgery for both thoracic outlet syndrome and a torn UCL in 2022, so he and the Giants will hope his latest injury is nothing more serious than mild discomfort.
In other news from around the NL West…
- Diamondbacks center fielder Alek Thomas left Sunday’s game against the Rockies in the fourth inning with what the team later announced as “left hamstring tightness.” Speaking after the game, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that he decided to take Thomas out of the game, while the center fielder wanted to stay on the field (per Arizona Sports). Hopefully for the D-backs, that is a sign that this was merely a precautionary measure. Lovullo said the team will continue evaluating the 23-year-old over the rest of the night.
- Earlier in the day, Lovullo provided an update on another one of his outfielders. Randal Grichuk, 32, is currently on a rehab stint with the Triple-A Reno Aces, and the skipper told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that he expects him to return soon after his minimum 10 days on the IL are up. Lovullo said Grichuk is already prepared to face major league pitching, but he needed a little more time to prep in the outfield after missing all of spring training recovering from ankle surgery.
- Walker Buehler made his first rehab start today, pitching into the fourth inning for Triple-A Oklahoma City. His fastball velocity sat around 94 mph (h/t to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic), not quite as high as it was in 2021 and ’22, but promising for an early rehab appearance. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times) that Buehler would need to make around four rehab starts, with Juan Toribio of MLB.com noting that Buehler likely needs to build up to throwing 90 pitches; his goal today was 40-45.
NL West Notes: Sandoval, Black, Grichuk, Dodgers
When veteran infielder Pablo Sandoval signed a non-roster deal with the Giants last month, it was reported that the deal was not meant to be a ceremonial end to the 37-year-old’s storied career akin to the deal right-hander Sergio Romo took with the club before retiring last spring. Rather, Sandoval hoped that the deal could be a stepping stone toward returning to the majors. After the Kung Fu Panda slashed just .250/.323/.250 without a single extra-base hit in 16 games with the club this spring, it appears unlikely that will come to pass for the time being. That still doesn’t mean that Sandoval has any intention of retiring, however. As relayed by MLB.com’s Henry Schulman, Sandoval has indicated that he intends to keep playing even if he does not make the major league roster in San Francisco to open the season. Instead, he intends to report to Triple-A Sacramento and play for the Giants in the minor leagues.
A veteran of 14 big league seasons who last played in the majors back in 2021, Sandoval is a two-time All Star who earned World Series MVP honors with the Giants in 2012 while also playing a key role during the club’s championship seasons in 2010 and 2014. Sandoval initially departed San Francisco to sign in Boston prior to the 2015 season, but that disastrous contract saw him released partway through the 2017 campaign. He returned to the Giants afterward and enjoyed a pair of resurgent seasons with the club in 2018 and 2019 as he slashed .259/.311/.466 in a combined 200 games. His most recent big league appearances came with the Braves, with whom he hit .178/.302/.342 in 69 games in a bench role three seasons ago.
While Sandoval clearly intends to continue his professional career into his age-37 campaign, it’s unclear what the Giants’ plans are regarding their World Series hero at this point. Indeed, Sandoval noted to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area yesterday that he has not yet discussed his plan to continue playing in the minor leagues with Giants brass. Even so, Sandoval emphasized to Pavlovic that he has no intention of hanging up the cleats at this point. “Everyone thinks I’m retired,” Sandoval said (per Pavlovic). “I’m not retired.”
More from around the NL West:
- Sticking with the Giants, the club made a surprising move yesterday by re-assigning right-hander Mason Black to the minor leagues, as noted by MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado. While the right-hander’s 6.97 ERA in 10 1/3 innings of work with the Giants this spring certainly presents a clear case for the 24-year-old starting the season in Triple-A, the move came just over a week after manager Bob Melvin indicated to reporters that the club was likely to turn to Black as a member of their Opening Day rotation. Of course, San Francisco’s rotation plans were altered the very next day by the addition of reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell, but it’s still something of a shock to see Black sent to Triple-A given the club’s need for innings in the bullpen due to injuries suffered by Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle this spring. Instead, it appears the long relief role will be offered to non-roster veteran Daulton Jefferies, who impressed with a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings during camp.
- The Diamondbacks will begin the season without outfielder Randal Grichuk, who manager Torey Lovullo confirmed will begin the season on the injured list to reporters (including Alex Weiner of AZ Sports) earlier today. That’s hardly a surprise, as Grichuk did not make it into game action this spring while rehabbing from offseason surgery to remove bone spurs from his ankle. Upon signing with Arizona last month, Grichuk indicated that the issues wasn’t expected to cause a lengthy absence, adding that if he were to miss Opening Day due to the issue he may be ready to return as soon as a week into the regular season. The 32-year-old veteran slashed a roughly league average .267/.321/.459 in 118 trips to the plate in Colorado and Anaheim last year and is slated to act as a right-handed complement to the likes of Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Joc Pederson in Arizona’s outfield mix this year.
- While the Dodgers are set to turn to veteran superstar Mookie Betts and second baseman Gavin Lux up the middle this season, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) yesterday that veteran shortstop Miguel Rojas will get some starts at short as well, at least against left-handed pitching. On those days, Betts will slide over to second base and push Lux to the bench. While Robert emphasized that the situation won’t be a strict platoon, Lux’s career .586 OPS against same-handed pitching and Rojas’s strong defense at shortstop make sitting Lux against certain southpaws in order to improve the club’s infield defense a sensible strategy. Rojas, 35, hit a paltry .236/.290/.322 in 124 games with the Dodgers last year but slashed a much more respectable .286/.331/.406 in 145 trips to the plate against lefties.
NL Notes: Grichuk, D’Backs, Kiermaier, Keller, Lodolo
Randal Grichuk underwent surgery last month to remove bone spurs from his ankle, so the newest member of the Diamondbacks roster might not be ready to make his Arizona debut by the very start of the season. “It’s one of those things where there’s a good chance I’ll be ready for Opening Day and if not, it’s a week. In the grand scheme of things, big picture, it’s nothing to worry about,” Grichuk told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters. Obviously the D’Backs weren’t concerned enough to back away from their $2MM deal with the veteran outfielder, and Grichuk could possibly be used as a designated hitter at first until he is fully ready for outfield work.
As to what the D’Backs might have left on their shopping list after a busy offseason, GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that “I think building out relief depth is probably something that we’re talking about. Pitching in general…I think from a position player standpoint, we’re probably in a spot where it’s less likely to see a clear opportunity for somebody. But we still have competitions underneath the starting roles. So we’ll see where that takes us.”
More from the National League….
- The Padres, Twins, Yankees, and Angels were linked to Kevin Kiermaier‘s market before the outfielder re-signed with the Blue Jays, but Kiermaier told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that the Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants also had interest. Kiermaier and his family’s love of Toronto and his Jays teammates ultimately sealed his return to the Blue Jays, though it’s interesting to speculate how the four-time Gold Glover might’ve fit into his other suitors’ plans. Adding Kiermaier would’ve given the Cubs some flexibility if Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t ready for a starting role just yet, while depending on the timing, the Dodgers might not have re-signed Jason Heyward if Kiermaier had instead been added to the fold. Signing Kiermaier likely wouldn’t have prevented the Giants from signing Jung Hoo Lee, though Lee might’ve been ticketed for more time as a corner outfielder than in center.
- The Pirates and Mitch Keller had several discussions about a contract extension last season, and Keller is “really looking forward” to a fresh set of negotiations this spring. “Going through arbitration and stuff, [the two sides are] obviously talking. Hopefully it’ll pick up, and we’ll get something going,” Keller told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Keller is under arbitration control through the 2025 season, and the right-hander has emerged as the de facto ace of the Pirates’ rotation over the last two seasons.
- Left-hander Nick Lodolo has already been at the Reds‘ spring camp for a month, as Lodolo has been getting in extra work in the aftermath of an injury-marred 2023 season. Lodolo tossed 34 1/3 innings over seven starts before suffering a stress fracture in his left tibia in May, and he made only three minor league appearances before being shut down in late August. Lodolo told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he isn’t feeling any pain in his left leg, and though he isn’t up to feeling exactly normal just yet, Lodolo and manager David Bell are hopeful the pitcher can be ready to be part of the Opening Day roster. “Health will be the top priority,” Bell said. “So if we don’t feel great about it, we could always just delay it, making sure that he’s fully healthy. He’s in a place that he could catch up and be on time for the season.”
Diamondbacks Sign Randal Grichuk
2:03PM: The Diamondbacks have officially announced Grichuk’s signing, and created 40-man roster space by moving right-hander Drey Jameson to the 60-day injured list. Jameson underwent Tommy John surgery in September and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season.
10:45AM: The Diamondbacks have signed outfielder Randal Grichuk to a one-year deal worth $2MM in guaranteed money, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (X link). Grichuk will earn $1.5MM in base salary in 2024, and there is a $500K buyout on a mutual option for the 2025 season. If the mutual option is exercised by both sides, Grichuk will earn $6MM in 2025. Grichuk is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Grichuk hit .267/.321/.459 with 16 homers over 471 plate appearance for the Rockies and Angels last season, translating to a perfectly average 100 wRC+ for the 32-year-old. This matches the 100 wRC+ Grichuk has posted over his entire 10-year career in the Show, with a .249/.296/.465 slash line and 191 home runs over 4261 plate appearances. Within those overall numbers sits a decidedly superior set of numbers against left-handed pitching, as the right-handed hitting Grichuk has an .822 career OPS against southpaws as compared to a .735 OPS against righties.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Grichuk’s splits have grown wider, as he has All-Star level numbers against lefties and sub-replacement level production against righties. With the door quite possibly closing on Grichuk’s viability as an everyday player, this perhaps makes him an ideal fit for a Diamondbacks team looking for some right-handed balance within a lefty-heavy outfield mix.
Reports surfaced last week that Grichuk was one of the players the Snakes were eyeing as a veteran complement to outfielders Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas, as well as the newly-signed Joc Pederson. All three of those players are left-handed bats and only Carroll is a lock for everyday duty, so Grichuk should be able to find plenty of at-bats filling in for Pederson or Thomas when a lefty is on the mound. Grichuk can play all three outfield positions and is at least passable defensively in center, adding to his value as a part-timer.
Coming off a surprise NL pennant, the Diamondbacks have been aggressive in bolstering their roster this offseason. Eduardo Rodriguez was signed to a four-year, $80MM contract, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was brought back for a three-year, $42MM commitment, and Pederson will earn $12.5MM in guaranteed money for his one-year deal (with a mutual option for 2025). Between these signings, Grichuk, and the trade that brought Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners, Arizona has both upgraded the rotation and added a lot of balance, power, and veteran experience to the position player mix.
The D’Backs are projected to have a payroll slightly lower than $143MM next season, as per Roster Resource. While still a pretty modest payroll by league-wide standards, it stands as the larger payroll in Arizona’s franchise history, and a sizeable bump over the club’s $116.1MM Opening Day payroll from 2023. Between these expenditures and new extensions for both GM Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo, the Diamondbacks clearly feel 2023 was just the beginning of a new contention window, and have used their extra playoff revenue to reinvest in the roster.
D-Backs Looking At Right-Handed Bench Bats
The Diamondbacks signed Joc Pederson late last month and plan to use him as their primary designated hitter, but the Snakes remain on the lookout for a right-handed bat to pair with Pederson, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Among the names they’re considering are Randal Grichuk, Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham, he adds.
Beyond Pederson at designated hitter, Arizona also has lefties in center field (Alek Thomas) and in right field (Corbin Carroll). The team’s re-signing of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year pact helped to balance out an all-lefty outfield mix, but in the event that Gurriel misses any time, the top option to replace him would be lefty-swinging Jake McCarthy. As such, there’s reason to have interest in a right-handed outfield bat beyond simply wanting a platoon partner for Pederson.
The mere possibility of Pederson and Pham on the same roster will prompt boundless quips about fantasy football, but the two would form a rather natural platoon in Arizona’s DH slot. Pederson has made a career of slugging against right-handed pitching (.242/.344/.490) but carries a bleak .209/.293/.329 slash against lefties — including a .186/.327/.279 output with the Giants in 2023. Pham, meanwhile, is a .271/.381/.453 hitter against southpaws.
Pham, 36 next month, hit .262/.332/.435 against lefties in 2023 — a season split between the Mets and the D-backs. It’s not the first time this winter that Arizona has been linked to a reunion with Pham, and their ongoing interest suggests that beyond giving the Snakes a useful right-handed bat, he was a good fit in the team’s clubhouse. Defensively, Pham is primarily a left fielder at this stage of his career. He did log 45 frames in center last season, but he hasn’t played the position even semi-regularly since 2018.
Duvall, who turned 35 in September, has generally even splits in his career: .232/.301/.469 against lefties and .232/.287/.473 against righties. He strikes out a bit more and walks a bit less against right-handers but doesn’t overwhelmingly favor pitchers of either handedness. That might make him a suboptimal platoon partner for Pederson, but it does give him some more utility of the D-backs incur injuries in their outfield and/or at designated hitter, with Pederson.
Duvall graded out as an elite corner outfield defender earlier in his career, but metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have viewed him as more of an average outfielder as he progresses into his mid-30s. The Red Sox did give Duvall a career-high 478 innings in center field last season, though the results weren’t what the team had hoped (-5 DRS, -4 OAA).
At 32 years old, Grichuk offers a younger version of a comparable skill set. He’s a career .267/.315/.507 hitter against left-handed pitching and has experience at all three outfield positions. Though he drew strong grades for his center field defense earlier in his career, defensive metrics have increasingly panned his work there. Grichuk is still a capable corner outfielder with average speed and above-average arm strength, and last year’s massive .328/.388/.607 slash against southpaws is particularly appealing for a team specifically looking for help against lefties.
The Diamondbacks currently project for a $142MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which would top their prior franchise record by nearly $11MM. That apparently won’t stop general manager Mike Hazen and his staff from pursuing further upgrades in free agency. None of Pham, Grichuk or Duvall will break the bank — all could likely be had on one-year contracts — but every dollar spent on payroll at this point pushes the D-backs further into uncharted territory.
The Top Unsigned Corner Outfielders
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about two weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. Over the past week, MLBTR has already taken a look at the remaining catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, center fielders, designated hitters and starting pitchers, and we will now proceed to the corner outfielders.
- Jorge Soler: He probably won’t be considered an everyday fielder by any club in the league, but his bat is clearly a notch above anyone else on this list. Soler hasn’t been the most consistent hitter over the years but is excellent when he’s in good form. 2023 was an upswing in his up-and-down career, as he hit 36 home runs and drew walks in 11.4% of his plate appearances. He also kept his strikeouts to a 24.3% rate, a tad above league average but solid by his standards. Soler’s .250/.341/.512 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 126. He walked away from $13MM and the final year of his deal with the Marlins and is now surely looking for a strong multi-year deal. But despite that potent bat, he won’t be anything more than a part-time option in the outfield. He only made 31 starts in the field last year and was graded poorly when out there, having never really received strong marks for his glovework. Whichever club signs him will surely think of him as a designated hitter who can play the field on a part-time basis, at best. The Blue Jays, Mets, Giants and Angels have been linked to him this offseason, with the Jays perceived by some as the favorite to get a deal done.
- Adam Duvall: Though he has been seeing significant time in center field in recent seasons, Duvall has spent far more of his career in the corners. His work in center has been passable, but he’s now 35 years old and is probably best thought of as a corner guy who can cover center on occasion. At the plate, he doesn’t take many walks and also strikes out a ton, but he parks the ball over the fence often enough to be useful. He was punched out in 31.2% of his trips to the plate last year and only walked at a 6.2% clip, but he launched 21 home runs in just 92 games. His .247/.303/.531 slash translated to a 116 wRC+. Health is an issue, which is why his output was limited last year and he’s only once played 100 games in the last four full seasons. But the combination of solid outfield defense and home runs nonetheless makes him an attractive piece. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently suggested that Duvall would be choosing between the Angels and the Red Sox.
- Tommy Pham: After a solid run from 2015 to 2019, Pham’s production has been up-and-down over the past four seasons. He had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, bounced back in 2021 but then struggled again in 2022. His most recent campaign was another solid bounceback, a season he split between the Mets and Diamondbacks. His 9.8% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate were both a bit better than league average. Pham hit 16 home runs, and his line of .256/.328/.446 translated a wRC+ of 110. He also stole 22 bases and slotted in at all three outfield positions, though primarily in left. As the Diamondbacks made a World Series run, he was able to add another three homers and swipe another two bags in the postseason. Back in November, he said he had received interest from roughly 10 teams, but no specific clubs were mentioned and some of them may have moved on to other targets since.
- Aaron Hicks: Like many of the other names on this list, Hicks has been inconsistently productive in his career. He had a strong run with the Yankees from 2017 to 2020 but his results fell off from there. He was subpar throughout 2021 and 2022, continuing into the beginning of 2023, leading the Yanks to release him. He latched on with the Orioles and got back on track. In 65 games with the O’s, Hicks hit seven home runs and walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances, striking out just 20.8% of the time. His .275/.381/.425 line translated to a wRC+ of 129. He also stole six bases and played all three outfield spots. That’s a fairly small sample of work that followed more than two years of struggles, but Hicks will be a no-risk signing for whichever club lands him, at least from a financial perspective. The Yankees are still on the hook for his $9.5MM salary both this year and next, as well as a $1MM buyout on a 2026 club option. Any other club can sign Hicks for the prorated league minimum of $740K for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Yankees pay. It’s unknown what Hicks will be looking for in a landing spot, but since he’s already got a contract, he could look to prioritize playing time or joining a competitive club.
- Eddie Rosario: Rosario has been at least league average at the plate for six of the past seven seasons. In 2022, his wRC+ dipped all the way down to 62, but it rebounded to an even 100 in 2023. He dealt with some vision problems in that 2022 season and underwent a laser eye procedure, so it’s seems fair to write that year off as an aberration. Rosario hit 21 homers for Atlanta in 2023, though with a subpar walk rate of 6.6%. His .255/.305/.450 line was exactly league average, as mentioned, but Rosario’s platoon splits have become increasingly glaring as his career has progressed. His defensive grades have declined over the years as well, although he posted solid marks in 2023. Many teams will view him as a left field/DH option who’s best paired with a platoon partner. Atlanta declined a $9MM club option for his 2024 services. He’ll likely be available on a one-year deal that clocks in south of that sum.
Honorable mentions: Whit Merrifield, Randal Grichuk, Robbie Grossman, Austin Meadows, David Peralta, Jurickson Profar, Brian Anderson
Angels Reportedly Place Randal Grichuk Back On Waivers
The Angels have again placed outfielder Randal Grichuk on waivers, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The veteran went unclaimed when the Halos put him on waivers last week.
That appears the likeliest outcome this time around. When Grichuk was available last week, he would’ve been eligible for postseason play with a new team. That’s no longer the case, as anyone acquired from outside the organization after September 1 is ineligible for the playoffs. Any team that puts in a claim for Grichuk, an impending free agent, would only be able to play him for the final three and a half weeks of the regular season.
While it seems unlikely a club would be interested in doing that, there’s at least some logic to the Angels trying to move Grichuk again. When he was on waivers last time, fellow right-handed hitting outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader were also available. The Reds, who were near the top of the waiver order among teams with a shot at making the playoffs, claimed both players.
Every team passed on Grichuk. Yet it seems likely there were teams behind the Reds in waiver priority that put in unsuccessful claims for Bader and/or Renfroe. Perhaps the Angels hope that one of those clubs would be willing to pivot to Grichuk now that they know they can’t land one of the other players.
For the Angels, the motivation is clear. Los Angeles has spent the past week endeavoring to get their luxury tax number below the $233MM base threshold. General manager Perry Minasian confirmed on Friday that shedding the contracts of Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Matt Moore, Dominic Leone and Renfroe didn’t get them to that point, as they remained on the hook for some of Grichuk’s salary when he went unclaimed. The Halos placed Max Stassi on the restricted list over the weekend, declining to pay him for the final month of the season while he’s away from the team attending to a family health issue. That reportedly knocked around $300K off the club’s tax ledger but still left it unclear if the Angels had limboed below the line.
Grichuk remains eligible to play for the Angels while the waiver process plays out. He would likely stick on the MLB roster for the final few weeks of the season if he again goes unclaimed. Grichuk has hit only .179/.230/.359 in 31 games for the Halos after they acquired him from the Rockies prior to the trade deadline.
Angels Remain Narrowly Above Luxury Tax Threshold
The Angels’ competitive balance tax number still sits narrowly above the $233MM base threshold, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Los Angeles attempted to shed enough salary via waivers this week to limbo below that number but was unsuccessful.
On Tuesday, the Angels placed six players on waivers. Five of them — Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore — were claimed, with the other teams absorbing their salaries. Outfielder Randal Grichuk cleared waivers, however, as no team wanted to take what remained of the $1.7MM that the Halos had assumed on Grichuk’s contract when acquiring him from Colorado.
That’ll apparently be the difference, as Fletcher adds that the Halos would’ve indeed gotten under the threshold had Grichuk been claimed. The Angels could theoretically still try to cut some spending by placing someone else on waivers. Players claimed after August 31 wouldn’t be eligible for postseason work with an acquiring team, but the Halos have more controllable players making above-minimum salaries (e.g. Luis Rengifo or Carlos Estévez) who’d likely be claimed with an eye towards next season if the Angels simply wanted to clear them off the books.
It doesn’t seem that’s the plan though. Minasian told Fletcher he doesn’t believe that paying the CBT this year will affect the club’s budget during the upcoming offseason. The team will barely pay any extra money this year, as they’ll only be taxed at a 20% rate on the minimal amount on which they surpassed the threshold. Nevertheless, it’ll have an impact in a few ways.
Most notably, it subjects the organization to higher fees in the event they exceed the threshold in consecutive seasons. Teams that pay the tax for a second straight year are charged a 30% fee (higher than the 20% standard rate) on their first $20MM of overages the following season. The fees continue to escalate for clubs that exceed the tax for a third straight year and/or surpass the threshold by upwards of $20MM.
CBT payors also receive reduced compensation for losing qualified free agents. The Angels are going to make a qualifying offer to Shohei Ohtani, which he’ll decline. If he subsequently signs elsewhere, the Halos would receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2024 draft. That’s typically around the 140th overall selection. Had the Angels gotten under the threshold, the compensatory pick would’ve landed between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round — approximately 70th overall.
The Angels will hope that latter point is irrelevant because they re-sign Ohtani. (None of their other impending free agents are candidates for the QO.) That won’t be known until the offseason, though an Ohtani deal would likely mean they’re nearing luxury tax territory yet again. Roster Resource projects the Halos’ 2024 CBT number around $131MM. That’s well shy of next season’s $237MM base threshold, but it doesn’t include arbitration estimates. Ohtani’s contract alone figures to tack on at least $40-45MM and could well pay north of $50MM per season. The Angels would obviously need to supplement the roster around Ohtani if they retain him, likely by adding infield depth, at least one starting pitcher and multiple bullpen arms.
Randal Grichuk Clears Waivers
Angels outfielder Randal Grichuk was not claimed on outright waivers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll remain with the Halos unless they surprisingly choose to outright him to a minor league affiliate, at which point Grichuk would have the right to elect free agency.
Los Angeles acquired Grichuk from the Rockies on July 30. The veteran outfielder had a .308/.365/.498 batting line at the time. He hasn’t hit at all since landing in Southern California, posting a .168/.220/.347 slash in 109 plate appearances as an Angel. Grichuk’s strikeout rate is up more than four percentage points relative to his time in Colorado.
Dismal batted ball luck has surely played a role. After hitting .363 on balls in play for the Rox, Grichuk owns just a .181 BABIP for the Halos. Nevertheless, other clubs were concerned enough about his recent drop-off not to add him to the roster. Los Angeles successfully moved on from Hunter Renfroe — he was claimed by the Reds — so they’ll presumably keep Grichuk on the major league club to play out the stretch run.
The 32-year-old is making $9.33MM on the season. That’s being divided among three teams. The Blue Jays are covering $4.33MM as part of the trade that sent him to Colorado over the 2021-22 offseason. The Rockies are paying down around half the remaining salary as a condition of the trade with the Halos, leaving Los Angeles on the hook for the prorated portion of approximately $2.5MM. Grichuk will be a free agent at the end of the season.
The Best Fits For Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk
A somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels placed six members of their active roster on outright waivers: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. The White Sox (Mike Clevinger), Mets (Carlos Carrasco) and Tigers (Jose Cisnero) all followed suit, to varying degrees.
In many ways, it hearkens back to the days of revocable August trade waivers, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. That led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, as high-priced veterans who’d gone unclaimed were free to be moved. This set of circumstances, however, is quite different.
The players waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets and Tigers are on irrevocable outright waivers. Any team that is awarded a claim on one of these players immediately takes on the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of these veterans goes unclaimed — it’s likely that a few of them will — their current team does not have to outright them to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active roster and continue playing him as normal. (The Angels reportedly already passed Tyler Anderson through outright waivers last week and just kept him on the roster after he went unclaimed.) Similarly, these players are quite obviously free to keep playing. Many of them played last night. Renfroe literally hit a home run as I was typing this paragraph. Waivers are fun!
The outright waiver period is 48 hours, meaning we’ll have resolution on everyone from this group at some point tomorrow afternoon (though news of the claims being awarded could be staggered a bit). Waiver priority is determined based on reverse order of winning percentage and is not league specific. League-specific waiver priority was unique to revocable August trade waivers and is now defunct. It’s a common misconception that it remains in place, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that waiver priority is simply worst team through best team — in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, waiver priority is determined based on the reverse standings on the day players clear waivers, meaning we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are wrapped up.
That’s a whole bunch of preamble that may or may not have been necessary, depending on your prior understanding of waiver minutiae. It felt pertinent to do a brief crash course, however, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the major ramifications it could hold with teams in a tight playoff race.
It’s fair to assume the non-contenders are going to pass on picking up any of these players — they’re all impending free agents — but any club with a glimmer of postseason hope could place a claim. That technically includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best to play meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego respective playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8%, while Baseball Prospectus has the Guards at just 1.6% and the Friars at what seems like a generous 7%. You can never rule out the Padres on big-name players, but they’re already in the third tier of luxury penalization, so anyone they acquire will come with a 75% tax. It’d be a steep price to pay, but hey, when has that ever stopped president of baseball ops A.J. Preller and owner Peter Seidler?
We’re writing about the best fits for this trio of outfielders, however, and the “best” fit doesn’t seem like a team whose playoff hopes are the rough equivalent of hitting a one-outer on the river in a hand of Texas Hold ‘Em. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much he’s still owed on his contract, his strengths/flaws, whether he’s likely to be claimed at all, and where he might best fit among the group of contenders who’ll have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Mariners (i.e. the upper echelon of MLB’s standings).
Harrison Bader
Age: 29 | Bats: R | Salary: $4.7MM ($783K yet to be paid out) | Position: Center Field
Bader is the youngest, the cheapest and the likeliest of this trio to be claimed. Age and salary play a major role in that, but so does his glove. Bader isn’t just the best defensive outfielder of this bunch — he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play any of the three outfield spots, but the defense is so strong that it’s almost a waste to have him anywhere other than center. In 4243 innings of center field play at the big league level, Bader has piled up 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a mammoth 61 Outs Above Average.
For some further context, Bader’s 4243 innings in center field from 2017-23 rank just 96th among all big league players in terms of total innings played at one position. But he nevertheless ranks 18th among all Major Leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved and seventh in Outs Above Average. In other words, even though 95 players have had a larger sample of innings to rack up accolades in that pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.
Prior to the 2023 season, Bader has been more or less a league-average hitter. From 2018-22, he batted .245/.319/.407 — good for a 98 wRC+. By that measure, he was 2% worse than a big league hitter. For a player with this type of defensive talent, that made him a standout all-around performer. This year, however, has seen his bat take a step back. Bader is fanning at a career-low 18%, but he’s hitting just .239/.275/.365. He’s walking less than ever, hitting more fly balls than ever before, and seeing just 6.5% of those flies turn into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).
One thing Bader is doing quite well — and that he’s always done well — is torching left-handed pitching. He’s a career .267/.332/.508 batter against southpaws, but in 2023 he’s absolutely demolishing lefties at a .348/.389/.697 clip. Granted, it’s only 72 plate appearances, but Bader has nonetheless been a behemoth when holding the platoon advantage.
Any team can stand to improve its outfield defense, but there are still a few contenders who could make particular use of this type of glove. The Marlins have been seeking a center fielder for years. They rank 29th in the Majors with -19 DRS and are tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs all grade as below-average defensive outfield units, too. As far as production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins and Reds are all bunched tightly together in terms of wRC+ (ranging San Francisco’s 90 to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they’re currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst waiver priority in MLB. It’s hard to imagine Bader falling that far.
The Twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and are hoping to get Byron Buxton back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox make some sense — Boston in particular, after Jarren Duran‘s injury — but both are a ways down the waiver pecking order. Bader would make any contending team better — even if only as a bench player — but he seems like a particularly good fit for the Marlins or the Giants.
Hunter Renfroe
Age: 31 | Bats: R | Salary: $11.9MM ($1.98MM remaining) | Position: Right field
Renfroe’s salary is significant enough that he’s not a lock to be claimed at all — particularly since he’s in the midst of a down year at the plate (the aforementioned homer notwithstanding). A well above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he batted .257/.315/.496, Renfroe finds himself batting .239/.301/.430 on the year — about 3% worse than average, per wRC+. He’s hitting more grounders than he has since his rookie season, popping up more often than ever, and has seen both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop to nearly career-low levels.
Earlier in his career, Renfroe was considered a premium defensive outfielder, but his sprint speed and outfield reads have degraded over the past few years, per Statcast. His raw arm strength still sits in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice about tagging up when Renfroe is on the receiving end of a fly-ball, but Renfroe’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs him at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives him a mark of -3.
Traditionally, Renfroe has punished left-handed pitching. He’s a lifetime .261/.342/.523 hitter against lefties in the big leagues, but this season has seen that production muted. Nearly all of Renfroe’s power has come against right-handed opponents; he’s hitting .250/.304/.356 against lefties, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he currently sports against right-handed opponents.
Renfroe was hot-potato’ed around the league even during more productive times, bouncing to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the manner in which the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players with OBP concerns. It’ll now cost a team just shy of $2MM to rent him for one month, and that may be a price at which some clubs balk.
That said, Renfroe has some track record and has still been a roughly average hitter in 2023. He’d be an upgrade over bench bats that are being rostered even on a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries in the outfield could certainly view him as a potential difference-maker.
While the Marlins could use Bader in center, they’re well-stocked on corner options and have Jorge Soler at DH. The Red Sox and Brewers have both already traded Renfroe once. The Giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) have relatively similar players. The Twins could view Renfroe as a viable upgrade over Jordan Luplow or the struggling Joey Gallo, and the Reds are a fit with Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Jonathan India on the injured list. Renfroe could push Nick Senzel back to Triple-A. If Renfroe makes it to the Mariners, he could be an upgrade over Dominic Canzone in left field with Jarred Kelenic out. The Dodgers could certainly afford to add Renfroe with J.D. Martinez on the injured list and a slew of lefty-hitting outfield options — if he makes it that far.
Randal Grichuk
Age: 32 | Bats: R | Salary: $9.333MM ($1.55MM remaining) | Position: All three outfield spots
Grichuk was having a strong season with the Rockies, batting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat cratered following a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the swap, he’s batted .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate that’s considerably higher than the 19.4% mark he posted in Denver.
Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually grades him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he’s never been a threat to steal bases and has drawn inconsistent (at best) grades for his defense around the outfield. He’s probably best-suited for corner work at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings in center this year. He has more than 3000 career innings in both center and right, in addition to nearly 1200 innings in left, so he’s at least going to feel familiar with whichever outfield slot he plays.
While he’s long shown above-average power — career .216 ISO, career-high 31 homers back in 2019, five seasons of 20-plus homers — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly undercut by his distaste for walks. He’s drawn a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, resulting in a lifetime OBP under .300 (.296).
That said, it may be a limited skill set, but Grichuk shines in one particular area: tormenting left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career .266/.314/.503 hitter in such situations.
Grichuk is a bit more affordable than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may hold more appeal. That same group of the Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds and Brewers could all use help against southpaws. The Giants are deep in right-handed outfielders though, and the D-backs have Pham to fill a similar role. The Reds and Twins could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and the Brewers could look at him as a boost against lefties who’d take some pressure off struggling Tyrone Taylor and young Sal Frelick.