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Shota Imanaga

NL Central Notes: Imanaga, Hayes, Delay, Candelario

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Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga was set to take the ball for a start against the Cardinals last night, but after rain caused the game to be postponed until July he’s seen his start pushed back until the club’s game against the Brewers on May 29. That scheduling change will give Imanaga a whopping ten days rest between his most recent start against the Pirates last week and his next, but Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that manager Craig Counsell made clear that Imanaga’s extended layoff wasn’t injury related, instead describing the decision as a “proactive” effort to manage his workload amid the 30-year-old lefty’s workload.

It’s not necessarily news that the Cubs are managing Imanaga’s workload, as he’s started just two games on regular rest so far this season. By inserting additional rest day’s into the lefty’s schedule, the club is hoping to soften Imanaga’s transition from the typical NPB schedule, where teams utilize six-man rotations with one day off a week allowing starters to pitch just once a week, to MLB’s five-man rotations with less frequent days off. It’s hard to argue with the results of Chicago’s plan, as Imanaga has been the best starting pitcher in the sport by the results this season and has authored a historic beginning to his big league career: his microscopic 0.84 ERA is both the lowest in baseball this year and the lowest of any rookie pitcher’s first nine starts in the modern era.

Imanaga’s peripheral numbers largely back up his stellar performance to this point, as well; his 27.8% is the 13th-best figure in all of baseball this year among qualified starters, while his 4.3% walk rate places him ninth. Only Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, and Pablo Lopez have struck out more batters while walking fewer than Imanaga this year, leaving the 30-year-old’s complex $53MM guarantee with the Cubs appearing to be one of the biggest steals of the offseason a third of the way through the 2024 campaign.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates offered updates on a handful of injured players today, as noted by Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Most notable among those updates was that regarding third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes has been on the shelf for two weeks due to low back inflammation but has resumed full baseball activities, and manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including Hiles) that they will meet to discuss the next steps of his rehab process. Given that encouraging update, it’s feasible to imagine Hayes heading out for a rehab assignment in the coming days, which could allow the third baseman to return to Pittsburgh at some point in early June. Jared Triolo has handled the hot corner while Hayes has been on the shelf.
  • Sticking with the Pirates, that same list of injury updates also relays positive news regarding catcher Jason Delay. The backstop underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee in mid-April and was expected to miss at least six weeks of action before undergoing baseball activities, but is already slated to start a rehab assignment just over a month after undergoing the procedure. Delay is currently on the 60-day injured list and would first be eligible to return to action in early June, although it’s feasible his rehab assignment could last longer than that given the lengthy layoff. Yasmani Grandal and Joey Bart have handled duties behind the plate in Delay’s absence, and it’s unclear if Delay would return to the big league club or be optioned to the minor leagues once healthy enough to be activated.
  • The Reds scratched infielder Jeimer Candelario from their lineup against the Dodgers earlier today due to neck stiffness, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Candelario, 30, struggled in the early going of his first season with the Reds but has begun to heat up in recent weeks with a .279/.343/.492 slash line in his last sixteen games. It’s not yet clear if Candelario will be out for longer than today’s game, but even a brief absence would be a brutal blow for a Cincinnati club that is already without Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and TJ Friedl due to injuries as well as Noelvi Marte due to a PED suspension. Santiago Espinal and Spencer Steer are starting tonight at third and first base, respectively, and figure to handle the infield corners for as long as Candelario is out of action.

NL Central Notes: Imanaga, Pirates, Brewers, Carpenter, Reds

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Before the Cubs signed Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal, the other finalists for Imanaga’s services were the Red Sox, Pirates, and Brewers, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Boston’s interest in Imanaga was well-known, and Pittsburgh had also been linked to Imanaga’s market, even if the Bucs’ traditional lack of spending makes it somewhat surprising to learn that they apparently came relatively close to landing the southpaw.  Of course, “finalist” is a bit of a nebulous term, and it isn’t known just how close the Pirates might’ve come to Chicago in the bidding.  For instance, the Red Sox offered Imanaga two years and $26MM in guaranteed money according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, with two more vesting years covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

The Brewers are also a surprise entry, as it wasn’t publicly known that they were in on Imanaga at all, let alone one of the last four suitors in the running for his services.  Milwaukee also often operates with a limited payroll (albeit not as limited as the Pirates’ budget), and it’s interesting to speculate on what the team might’ve offered Imanaga, or whether signing the Japanese star might’ve kept from the Crew from any of their other winter business.  For instance, if the Brewers had signed Imanaga, would they have still had enough spending capacity to bring back Brandon Woodruff and/or Wade Miley, or would any further pitching additions would’ve been strictly of the lower-cost or minor league variety if Imanaga had been the team’s big offseason strike.  As Nightengale observes, any of Imanaga’s other suitors might have some regrets given how the left-hander has gotten his MLB career off to such a great start.

Some other notes from around the NL Central…

  • Matt Carpenter recently received a cortisone shot to deal with the oblique strain that has kept him on the injured list for almost four weeks, MLB.com’s John Denton writes (X link).  The shot led to a shutdown, and it isn’t clear when Carpenter will be ready to begin a minor league rehab assignment, though he has been able to take batting practice.  Carpenter reunited with the Cardinals on a one-year deal this past winter, but played in just three games before suffering his oblique problem.
  • X-rays were negative on both Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson after the Reds duo were each hit on the hand by pitches in Saturday’s game.  Encarnacion-Strand might be the slightly more serious situation of the two, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the infielder’s X-ray revealed a small previous fracture in the same spot that CES was hit on Saturday.  Encarnacion-Strand said he had “no clue” about the origin of the older injury, and he hadn’t felt any discomfort prior to this most recent HBP.  It isn’t yet clear if Encarnacion-Strand will get an MRI to further explore the injury, but he hoped to return to the lineup within a day or two.

Cubs Notes: Tauchman, Imanaga, Taillon

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Cubs outfielder Mike Tauchman has had plenty of uncertainty in his career. He’s bounced around from the Rockies to the Yankees and Giants, spent 2022 with the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO League and settled for a minor league deal with the Cubs going into 2023. But in 2024, he seems to have a bit more clarity on the path ahead of him. He tells Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times that manager Craig Counsell told him at the start of Spring Training that he has already made the team.

‘‘From a personal standpoint, [it’s] given me a little freedom to trial-and-error a couple of things, rather than really focusing on the results, focusing on ‘making the team,’ ’’ Tauchman said. ‘‘Because now it’s about getting ready for March 28 and the subsequent games that we have.’’

Tauchman, now 33, got added to the Cubs’ roster last year when Cody Bellinger was injured but played well enough to stick around even when Bellinger returned. He got into 108 games, drawing a walk in 14% of his 401 plate appearances. His home run total of eight was fairly modest but he was on-base enough to be above average at the plate overall. His .252/.363/.377 slash line translated to a wRC+ of 107. He also stole seven bases and got strong grades for his time on the grass, most of which was in center field. In 584 innings in center, he produced three Defensive Runs Saved and got a +1 from Outs Above Average.

That solid showing was enough for the Cubs to tender him an arbitration contract, with the two sides eventually agreeing to a $1.95MM salary. For part of this offseason, Tauchman may have been seen as the on-paper center fielder between Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ. Prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong would have been another option but he’s considered a glove-first player, is still shy of his 22nd birthday and has just 47 games played above Double-A.

The Cubs recently re-signed Bellinger and he figures to take the center field job. He also plays first base but it seems like the Cubs will give Michael Busch a chance to take that spot. That will likely leave Tauchman in a fourth outfielder role while Crow-Armstrong gets regular reps in Triple-A. An injury could always change things, with Happ currently dealing with a mild hamstring strain, but Tauchman seems to have a refreshingly secure gig for the time being.

Elsewhere in Cubs’ tidbits, the rotation figures to be an area of focus this year as the club looks to take a step forward after just missing the playoffs last year. Collectively, Cub starters had a 4.26 ERA last year which put them 14th in the majors. Since the club is going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster, improvement in the rotation could be a difference maker.

Marcus Stroman departed via free agency and the club signed Shota Imanaga to take his spot. Imanaga will be looking to make the transition from Japan, where pitchers often throw once a week, to the five-day cycle in North America.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score relays that the club plans on using off-days and spot starters to help him with the adjustment, which could perhaps lead to some extra starts for optionable depth arms. The club figures to have Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon and Imanaga in four rotation spots, with one more spot available to Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian or Ben Brown.

Everyone in that latter group has options and may start the season in the minors but it sounds like there will be opportunities to make big league appearances as the season rolls along. The occasional spot start will be used to give Imanaga and the other guys a breather and injuries are fairly inevitable for pitchers, which will open other chances.

Taillon will be looking for a bounceback season, as his first campaign with the Cubs wasn’t strong, finishing with a 4.84 ERA. That potential bounceback season is off to a bumpy start, however, as Lee reports that Taillon is dealing with some soreness in both of his calves. That issue doesn’t seem debilitating and he still appears to be on track for Opening Day if he doesn’t experience any setbacks, but it’s a situation worth monitoring over the weeks to come since a return to form for Taillon will be important for the Cubs this year.

MLBTR Podcast: The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Ben Cherington of the Pirates has repeatedly said that he would be active in the market for another starting pitcher and another outfielder. With Spring Training starting in about one month, has he given up on this quest? (25:35)
  • Why do general managers not come out and say reports are B.S.? Use the Jays as example. They are not interested in Blake Snell but their name gets thrown in for leverage. Should GMs step in and say this report is false? The endless number of sources is ridiculous and leads nowhere except larger pay days or trade hauls because of fake competition. (27:30)
  • I think most of the baseball world is getting really sick of the Dodgers and Yankees buying all the major names. It’s terrible for parity and makes for season after season of “wash, rinse, repeat” storylines. Is the league ever going to enact a salary cap? It’s done great things for the other three major sports leagues. What is the reason for the resistance to it? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cubs Notes: Suter, Imanaga, Shaw

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The Cubs were among several teams with interest in left-hander Brent Suter prior to his decision to sign in Cincinnati on a one-year deal earlier this week, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Wittenmyer adds that Chicago remained interested in Suter’s services “down to the end” of his time as a free agent.

That the Cubs would have interest in Suter is hardly a surprise. The 34-year-old was among the lefty relievers the club was reportedly interested in prior to last summer’s trade deadline, and the club has found itself connected to the relief market frequently with this winter, with Ryan Braiser and Robert Stephenson among the names rumored as potential Cubs targets. Suter also spent seven seasons in Milwaukee under new Cubs manager Craig Counsell prior to joining the Rockies prior to the 2023 campaign.

The relief market has seen the likes of Andrew Chafin, Will Smith and Chris Stratton sign over the past month in addition to Chafin, with right-hander Jordan Hicks also recently coming off the board after signing with the Giants as a starting pitcher. Even so, the Cubs nonetheless figure to have plenty of options available to them as they search to upgrade their bullpen this winter. In addition to Stephenson and Brasier, the likes of left-hander Matt Moore and right-hander David Robertson could provide some veteran stability to the late innings for Chicago, where they currently project to utilize Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather.

More from the north side of Chicago…

  • The Cubs made their first big move of the offseason last week by landing left-hander Shota Imanaga on a four-year, $53MM deal. While Imanaga was posted for MLB teams to sign less than two months ago, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times recently detailed the club’s efforts to land the southpaw, which date back to the club beginning to scout the southpaw back in 2018, the third season of Imanaga’s career in Nippon Professional Baseball. Lee notes that Imanaga caught Chicago’s attention in a more significant way during the World Baseball Softball Confederation’s 2019 Premiere12 tournament, the same tournament where they first identified outfielder Seiya Suzuki as a possible future target. That lengthy time spent scouting the duo has paid off as Imanaga figures to slot behind Justin Steele in the middle of the club’s rotation this year, while Suzuki slashed an impressive .285/.357/.485 in 138 games as the club’s everyday right fielder in the second year of his five-year pact with the Cubs last year.
  • Chicago’s first-round pick in the 2023 draft, shortstop Matt Shaw, made a big first impression during his first professional campaign with a .357/.400/.618 slash line in 170 trips to the plate across three levels last summer, including a stop at Double-A where he slashed a strong .292/.329/.523 in 15 games. With that performance, the 22-year-old has put himself on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point during the 2024 campaign. Gold glove fielders Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are locked into the middle infielder positions at Wrigley, however, and that’s led Shaw to explore new defensive positions this winter. Shaw himself told Ryan Herrera of CHGO Sports at this weekend’s Cubs Convention that “probably 99%” of his defensive reps this winter have come at third base. Prospect evaluators questioned Shaw’s arm strength when he was selected last summer, making the hot corner an unusual fit for the youngster. On the other hand, the Cubs found success in moving Nick Madrigal to third base last year despite similar questions about arm strength with Madrigal posting +10 Outs Above Average at the position in 2023.

Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions

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Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park.  With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.

Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control.  Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects.  It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers.  Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.

Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster.  However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency.  Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”

This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance.  Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.

One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place.  The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023.  That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.

This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga.  Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations.  However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.

The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.”  Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.

There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023.  That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.

Cubs Sign Shota Imanaga To Four-Year Deal

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The Cubs officially announced the signing of left-hander Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract. It’s reportedly a $53MM guarantee. The deal contains a fifth-year team option and could reach $80MM. The Cubs will need to decide after the 2025 and potentially ’26 seasons whether to exercise the option for 2028. If the club declines the option at either point, Imanaga would have the ability to opt out and become a free agent. He receives limited no-trade rights and would earn a full no-trade clause if the Cubs exercise either of their options.

On top of what they’ll pay Imanaga, the Cubs owe a posting fee to the Yokohama BayStars of Nippon Professional Baseball. That’ll initially be a $9.825MM sum and would increase if the team exercises the option and/or Imanaga unlocks more money via escalators. The Cubs would owe the BayStars an additional 15% of whatever money the southpaw earns beyond the initial guarantee.

It’s the first MLB free agent pickup of the offseason for the Cubs. It’s a big acquisition, as the southpaw is one of the more intriguing pitchers in this year’s class. That makes the financial terms unexpected. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract. Reporting in recent weeks had suggested he could top $100MM. Even with the conditional opt-out possibilities, a $53MM guarantee and an $80MM maximum value comes in below general expectations.

Imanaga has spent the past eight seasons with the BayStars in his home country. He owns a career 3.18 ERA in a league generally regarded as the second-best level in the world. Imanaga has turned in a 3.08 or better in each of the past three seasons, including a sub-3.00 figure for the last two years.

During the 2023 campaign, he allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine through 148 innings. He led all NPB hurlers with 174 strikeouts, narrowly topping Dodgers’ $325MM signee Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that regard. That’s an impressive 29.2% clip that’s well above the 22.1% MLB average. He paired that with a tidy 4% walk rate, ranking him among NPB’s best pitchers at dominating the strike zone.

Despite the strong strikeout and walk profile, Imanaga doesn’t come with the kind of excitement generated by Yamamoto. That’s in part due to age. Having turned 30 last September, Imanaga is a typical age for a first-time free agent starter. More importantly, his repertoire points more toward a projection as a solid mid-rotation arm than a potential ace.

Evaluators with whom MLBTR spoke before the offseason suggested Imanaga profiles as a #3/4 pitcher in a big league rotation. Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser pegged him as a #4/5 type in a scouting report from early December. The 5’10” hurler typically sits in the low-90s with his fastball, touching the 94-95 MPH range in shorter stints.

Evaluators have credited him with above-average life on the pitch, allowing it to play for whiffs at the top of the strike zone despite the pedestrian velocity. Glaser writes that Imanaga backs that up with an above-average split but suggests his MLB upside may be capped by middling breaking stuff.

The main concern in Imanaga’s statistical profile has been the longball. He surrendered 17 homers last season, the second-most of any NPB pitcher. While some of that is attributable to workload — he was 15th in innings pitched — it hints at a fly-ball profile that could give some evaluators pause. The Yankees reportedly stayed on the periphery of the bidding in part because of concerns that Imanaga wouldn’t profile well in a very hitter-friendly home park. Statcast’s Park Factors rate Wrigley Field as slightly favorable to home runs, but it’s not among the top handful of hitting venues in MLB.

Imanaga’s stellar strikeout/walk profile and consistently strong results generated a decent amount of reported interest. The Red Sox, Giants and Angels were all reported to be in the bidding of late. He’ll bypass those teams to step into a Chicago rotation that seems likely to lose Marcus Stroman to free agency.

Imanaga joins Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon as locks for the Opening Day rotation. The likes of Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski and prospect Ben Brown could battle for the #5 job. There’s still plenty of time for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office to add another starter if they want to solidify the final spot and push all their younger, unproven arms into depth roles.

The fee to the BayStars is proportional to the contract value: 20% of the deal’s first $25MM ($5MM), 17.5% of the next $25MM ($4.375MM) and 15% of further spending ($450K). The 15% rate also applies to whatever future earnings Imanaga secures.

A posting fee is on top of the sum to the player but not included in the deal’s competitive balance tax calculation. The average annual value checks in at $13.25MM. According to Roster Resource, that’ll push the team’s CBT number north of $198MM. That’s nowhere near next year’s $237MM tax threshold. Evenly distributing the salaries would move the team’s 2024 payroll commitments to roughly $191MM — slightly beyond last year’s approximate $184MM Opening Day mark.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Cubs had an agreement with Imanaga. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the presence of various escalators and option provisions and the deal’s $80MM maximum value. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the four-year, $53MM agreement, as well as the club option/opt-out possibilities after years two and three. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported the no-trade provisions.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Showed Interest In Shota Imanaga

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Shota Imanaga’s 45-day posting window closes today, meaning the Cubs will likely announce his reported four-year contract in the near future. It’s known that the Chicago outbid a field of interested parties including at least the Giants, Angels and Red Sox, although multiple reports in the final days of Imanaga’s free agency suggested there were as many as five teams in the mix. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers now reports that the Pirates showed interest in the star NPB left-hander — a surprise entrant into the Imanaga market for a number of reasons.

On the one hand, word of interest that didn’t materialize in a deal can be waved off by many as inconsequential. Imanaga is headed to the Cubs, and he’ll spend anywhere from two to five seasons there, thanks to the complex nature of his contract. (Four years are guaranteed, but he has multiple opt-out chances and the Cubs can supersede those by picking up a fifth-year option after the 2025 season.) What’s done is done. Imanaga is not and will not be a member of the Pirates.

On the other, the Pirates are a genuinely surprising entrant into the Imanaga bidding. Signing him would’ve required the Bucs to commit the largest contract they’ve ever given to a pitcher; Francisco Liriano’s $39MM pact currently holds that distinction. That’s interesting in and of itself, but it’s also further intriguing in that their reported interest now makes it worth wondering whether the Bucs might have a bit more money to spend than most would’ve assumed. And, if that’s the case, it’s fair to consider that perhaps they’d be in play for other middle-tier starters who remain unsigned. The likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still figure to be well beyond the Pirates’ price range, but there are still a few notable arms in the next tier down — Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez (who’s spent the past several seasons starring in NPB) among them.

Thus far, the Pirates have added lefties Martin Perez (one year, $8MM) and Marco Gonzales (acquired from the Braves for a PTBNL) to their rotation behind Mitch Keller. With right-hander Johan Oviedo undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this offseason, however, there’s greater need beyond that trio — especially considering Gonzales’ own injury troubles this past season. Former top prospect Roansy Contreras took a step back in 2023 after a more promising 2022 showing, while prospect Quinn Priester had a rocky debut in 2023.

The Pirates will get righty JT Brubaker back from his own Tommy John procedure this year, but he’ll surely be eased back into the fold and will be on some level of innings limit. Right-hander Luis Ortiz and southpaw Bailey Falter are among the team’s other options in the rotation, and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could make his MLB debut during the summer of 2024. That all gives the Bucs some depth, but with at least two rotation spots still in flux, there’s room for another arm to be added.

It’s possible that the Pirates viewed Imanaga as an exception of sorts, and that their interest in him will go down as little more than a footnote. It remains unclear, after all, whether they pursued him with any level of aggression or whether they were hoping to land him on a shorter-term pact that falls well shy of where he ultimately landed with the Cubs.

If the Bucs fill out their rotation internally or make another budget pickup to stuff some low-upside innings into their starting staff, the interest in Imanaga will quickly be forgotten. But it’s nevertheless interesting to see Pittsburgh punching north of its typical weight class in free agency. General manager Ben Cherington indicated earlier this offseason that the team’s payroll can be expected to increase — although last year’s $73MM Opening Day mark is quite a low bar to clear. The Bucs currently project for a payroll of about $70MM, per Roster Resource.

Latest On Shota Imanaga

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Jan. 9: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports this morning that both the Giants and Angels now “appear to be looking elsewhere” (Twitter links). Heyman suggests that both the Red Sox and Cubs are “very much” still alive in the Imanaga bidding. That runs counter to reports from the weekend and from yesterday, though bidding on any free agent is, of course, quite fluid. Imanaga has a bit more than 48 hours remaining to come to terms with a team.

Jan. 8, 3:55pm: Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Sox are considered a “long shot” to get Imanaga as things currently stand.

3:45pm: Star NPB left-hander Shota Imanaga will see his 45-day posting window come to a close on Thursday, meaning it’s only a matter of days before the 30-year-old will decide on his first big league team. Bidding for Imanaga has reportedly been strong, as he’s drawn interest from a wide range of teams thus far in his first foray into MLB’s open market. As the bidding period winds down, Imanaga’s market has unsurprisingly begun to take firmer shape.

Sankei Sports in Japan reports that the Angels and Giants are currently the leading candidates to sign Imanaga, although no decision has been made just yet. Similarly, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggests that the Giants are emerging as the favorites to sign the southpaw, though Feinsand adds that each of the Angels, Cubs and Red Sox remain in the fold to some extent. While there’s still a number of ways which the left-hander’s final decision could go, it’s at least notable that Feinsand characterizes a final four of sorts, while the reports out of Japan have the field narrowed further yet.

The Giants and Angels are both strong fits for Imanaga, who’s expected to top countryman Kodai Senga’s five-year, $75MM contract with the Mets. San Francisco acquired former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray on Friday in a surprising trade with the Mariners, but Ray isn’t expected to pitch until midseason as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Similarly, right-hander Alex Cobb will open the year on the injured list while recovering from October hip surgery.

That leaves the Giants with ace Logan Webb as the most (arguably only) solidified member of the rotation. Veteran Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison and 2023 rookies Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck are among the candidates to round out the staff, but there’s a good deal of uncertainty beyond that group. It’s true that Imanaga himself comes with his own uncertainty — he’s untested against big league hitters — but MLB scouts are intrigued enough by him that some believe his contract could approach nine figures. Clearly, there’s a prevailing belief throughout MLB that Imanaga is a legitimate mid-rotation arm, at the least.

A few hundred miles to the south, the Angels are facing some rotation questions of their own. Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval are all locked into spots, although Detmers and Sandoval both had down 2023 showings relative to their 2022 performance. That’s even more true of veteran Tyler Anderson, who had an All-Star ’22 showing with the Dodgers before posting a 5.43 ERA in year one of a three-year, $39MM free agent deal with the Halos. The Angels recently took a low-cost flier on Zach Plesac and have reportedly been prioritizing Blake Snell in the wake of Shohei Ohtani’s departure, but Imanaga presents a mid-rotation option for them as well.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, will roll out a new-look rotation with or without Imanaga. Gone is oft-injured ace Chris Sale, who was shipped to the Braves (with cash) in exchange for second baseman Vaughn Grissom. He was quickly replaced by newly signed Lucas Giolito, who’s currently in line to be joined by some combination of Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford.

As for the Cubs, they’ve been MLB’s least-active team this winter — at least when it comes to actually pushing deals across the finish line. Chicago has been connected to a litany of free agents and a handful of trade targets, but thus far the Cubs haven’t added a single player to their roster aside from catcher Brian Serven, whom they claimed off waivers from the Rockies last week. Chicago’s rotation currently includes Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon, with veteran Drew Smyly and young arms like Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Javier Assad all in the mix for starts as well. It’s a relatively solid group, but the Cubs figure to make some kind of move to replace the outgoing Marcus Stroman.

Dating back to 2019, Imanaga boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in addition to a cumulative 2.79 earned run average — including a no-hitter in the 2022 season. He’s not overpowering in terms of velocity, though MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted back in September that he’d added some life to his heater and was averaging between 92-93 mph during the 2023 campaign. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, Imanaga’s new team will need to pay a release fee to his former team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, which would be equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.

Red Sox Fielding Trade Interest In Masataka Yoshida, Kenley Jansen

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The Red Sox have received trade interest in left fielder Masataka Yoshida, report Jen McCaffrey and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. McCaffrey and Rosenthal write that while the Sox aren’t actively shopping Yoshida, they’re open to ways to restructure the outfield.

That aligns with a report from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe last week the Sox were considering dealing an outfielder. The Sox would have more suitors if they shopped an affordable, controllable player like Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela or Wilyer Abreu. Finding a suitable match on Yoshida would be more difficult, but it’s a possibility that’d clear some desired spending room.

Another move that’d allow the Sox to shed some money: a trade of closer Kenley Jansen. Speier reported this evening that Boston is entertaining interest in the four-time All-Star. Yoshida and Jansen were each free agent pickups last offseason.

Boston signed Yoshida to a five-year, $90MM contract. (They also paid a $15.375MM posting fee to Yoshida’s former team, the Orix Buffaloes.) It was a bet on the left-handed hitter transitioning smoothly to MLB pitching. The 30-year-old had mixed results in his first big league campaign. Yoshida hit .289/.338/.445 over 580 plate appearances. He showed strong strike zone awareness and excellent pure contact skills, yet it wasn’t an overwhelming offensive performance.

Yoshida hit 15 home runs and walked less than 6% of the time he stepped to the plate. Listed at 5’8″ and 176 pounds, he doesn’t have the raw power of a prototypical slugger. Yet the profile is built around his bat, as Yoshida has drawn below-average reviews for his glove dating back to his time in Japan. He’s limited to left field or designated hitter and received subpar grades from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Detractors pointed to those defensive and power questions when Yoshida was available via the posting system last winter. The Sox, under former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, were confident he’d hit enough to overcome that. With Bloom having since been replaced by Craig Breslow, the front office might be less bullish on his projection.

Yoshida’s contract calls for $18MM salaries for the next four seasons. It’s unlikely he’d have landed a $72MM deal covering his age 30-33 campaigns if he were a free agent this winter. As a result, Boston would probably have to offset a chunk of the money to move him — either by including cash considerations or taking some money back in the deal.

Jansen would be a much different trade candidate. His $16MM salary next season isn’t far below what Yoshida will make. He’d be a much shorter-term commitment, though, as he’ll be a free agent after 2024. Jansen had a solid but not overpowering first season with the Sox, pitching to a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.7% of opponents, an above-average mark that nevertheless represented the lowest rate of his career. He still successfully nailed down 29 of 33 save chances, but he wasn’t quite as dominant as he’d been for the Dodgers or Braves.

Boston has a fair amount of depth in both the outfield and the bullpen. That at least opens the possibility of offloading cash in those areas to clear space for other targets. Speier wrote tonight the front office is still seeking starting pitching and a right-handed power bat.

The Sox have been tied to free agent Teoscar Hernández throughout the offseason. Meanwhile, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Boston is also among the team showing interest in Jorge Soler. Either player would provide plenty of juice from the right side. A Yoshida trade would open a path to playing time in left field or DH. However, Speier indicates the Red Sox have been unwilling to offer more than two guaranteed years to Hernández, who is holding out for a three-plus year pact. It’s unclear if they’d be open to a third year on Soler.

In any case, there are obviously a number of possibilities the front office is still considering. The Sox have also been tied to a number of free agent rotation options, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Recent reporting has indicated that Imanaga appears a more realistic target than Snell or Montgomery, although the NPB left-hander could top $100MM himself. Speier characterizes the Red Sox as “lurking” on Imanaga but indicates they may not be among the most involved suitors. The southpaw will make his decision before the posting window closes next Thursday.

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