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Trea Turner

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Position Players

By Mark Polishuk | August 13, 2022 at 10:55pm CDT

The qualifying offer has impacted the free agent market for the last 10 offseasons, but it wasn’t clear if there would be an eleventh as Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association engaged in labor talks last winter.  When the lockout was over and the new collective bargaining agreement was finally settled, one sticking point remained — the implementation of an international player draft.  If the union agreed to this draft, the league would have agreed to scrap the qualifying offer system altogether.

However, July’s deadline for a decision on an international draft came and went without any new agreement, and thus the status quo of the QO will remain for the 2022-23 free agent class.  As such, we can now look ahead and predict which players will or could receive qualifying offers from their teams at the end of the season.

A quick refresher on the QO rules.  The qualifying offer is a one-year contract with a salary figure determined by averaging the top 125 salaries of all MLB players.  Last year’s figure was $18.4MM, and it’s safe to estimate that this winter’s QO will be worth somewhere in the range of $18-19MM.  Any free agent is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer unless a) they have received one in past trips to free agency, or b) they haven’t spent the entire 2022 season with their current organization.  For instance, the Padres can’t issue Josh Bell a qualifying offer because Bell was only acquired at the trade deadline.

If a player accepts the qualifying offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal in the $18MM-$19MM range.  (The player can also negotiate a longer-term extension with his team after accepting that QO, as Jose Abreu did with the White Sox in November 2019.)  While some free agents have indeed taken the qualifying offer, the large majority reject the deal in search of a richer and lengthier contract.  If a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, their new team must give up at least one draft pick and possibly some international draft pool money, while their former team will get a compensatory draft pick in return.

With several prominent names in this year’s free agent market eligible for the QO, let’s look at some of the candidates, starting with position players.

Easy Calls: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Willson Contreras (Cubs), Aaron Judge (Yankees), Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Dansby Swanson (Braves), Trea Turner (Dodgers)

There isn’t much drama in any of these decisions, as these players are all obvious candidates to be issued qualifying offers that will be rejected.  Nimmo is perhaps the only name on this list that rates as a bit of a surprise, yet he has quietly posted strong numbers over his seven seasons in New York, including a quality 2022 campaign.  Most importantly, Nimmo has also stayed healthy, playing in 104 of the Mets’ 113 games — this is already the second-most games played for Nimmo in any season of what has been an injury-plagued career.

Arenado and Bogaerts aren’t guaranteed to be free agents, as either could pass on exercising opt-out clauses in their current deals.  However, Bogaerts is a virtual lock to opt out, and Arenado is having such a great season that he should be able to comfortably top the $144MM he is owed through from 2023-27.  Since Arenado has been vocal about how much he likes playing for the Cardinals, an extension is certainly possible before Arenado even hits the open market, with the Cards perhaps tacking another guaranteed year and more money onto the deal to prevent the third baseman from opting out.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Tim Anderson (White Sox)

The White Sox hold club options on Anderson’s services for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, with next year’s option being worth $12.5MM (with a $1MM buyout).  Though he could technically be a free agent, there is zero doubt the Sox will exercise Anderson’s 2023 option, so a qualifying offer is a moot point.

Borderline Cases: Mitch Haniger (Mariners), J.D. Martinez (Red Sox), Jurickson Profar (Padres), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)

Rizzo’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal with the Yankees includes an opt-out clause after this season, and it would seem like the first baseman (who just turned 33 earlier this week) will indeed test the open market again.  Rizzo’s first full season in the Bronx has seen him hit .224/.342/.504 with 27 home runs, with the fifth-best wRC+ (139) of his distinguished career.  Rizzo’s age, home/road splits, and first base-only status will limit his market to some extent, and draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer will also make other teams wary.  But, Rizzo was still able to land a multi-year pact last winter coming off a lesser platform year, so he should be able to match or better that pact again.  Rizzo has quickly become a clubhouse and fan favorite in New York, so this could be another situation where a player is convinced to pass on an opt-out due to a contract extension.

Haniger has appeared in only 15 games this season, due to both a high ankle sprain that required a trip to the 60-day injured list, as well as a two-week stint on the COVID-related injury list in April.  He has been on a tear since returning to action last week, but if his numbers settle down, then it seems likely that Seattle won’t issue a qualifying offer.  However, if Haniger continues to mash over the remainder of the season and returns to his 2021 form, the Mariners face an interesting decision.

A late-season hot streak could do enough for Haniger’s market that he might reject a qualifying offer, as since Haniger turns 32 in December, this could be his best shot at a lucrative multi-year deal.  On the flip side, he could still choose to accept the QO, knowing that his checkered injury history could work against him in free agency — Haniger can bank the one-year QO payday and then hope for a full and healthy 2023 season as a better platform for that longer-term deal.  From the Mariners’ perspective, paying around $19MM for Haniger could be seen as a worthwhile investment, especially since the team doesn’t know what to expect from Kyle Lewis and Jarred Kelenic heading into 2023.

Martinez turns 35 on August 21 and is still posting above-average (120 wRC+) numbers, hitting .281/.346/.443 with nine home runs over 422 plate appearances.  That still represents a significant power dropoff from Martinez’s norms, and he has been a DH-only player this season.  Even with the looming threat of losing Bogaerts from the Red Sox lineup, Boston might still pass on issuing a QO to Martinez out a concern that he might accept, since chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems to be looking for more flexibility with both the roster and the payroll.

Profar is another less-likely candidate to receive a qualifying offer, even if he is also playing well.  Between good offensive (119 wRC+, 12 homers, .254/.345/.416 over 467 PA) and defensive (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +1.8 UZR/150 in left field) numbers, Profar has been a 2.8 fWAR player in 107 games with San Diego this season, a nice bounce-back from an underwhelming 2021.  With a player option attached to his 2023 services, Profar can either earn $7.5MM next season or take the $1MM buyout and test the open market.

At the very least, it would seem like Profar will indeed opt out and try to secure a longer-term contract, but it would seem like a reach if the Padres issued a qualifying offer.  Profar will only be 30 on Opening Day, so he could accept the QO to lock in that one-year payday, and then be on track to test the market again at age 31.  Considering the Padres might exceed the luxury tax threshold for the second straight year and will face a lot of free agent decisions this winter, they probably won’t want to risk Profar being bumped into the $19MM salary range.  Profar could be another extension candidate, given president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s belief in Profar’s ability dating back to their days in the Rangers organization.

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2022-23 MLB Free Agents MLBTR Originals Aaron Judge Anthony Rizzo Brandon Nimmo Dansby Swanson J.D. Martinez Jurickson Profar Mitch Haniger Nolan Arenado Tim Anderson Trea Turner Willson Contreras Xander Bogaerts

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Cubs Notes: Free Agency, Hendricks, Reyes

By Steve Adams | August 10, 2022 at 10:31am CDT

Although the Cubs generally sat out last winter’s star-studded free agent market for shortstops, there’s already been ample speculation that they’ll be more aggressive on that front in the 2022-23 offseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added to that this week in his podcast, voicing a belief that the Cubs “will get” one of the marquee shortstops on this year’s market. As profiled in our latest Free Agent Power Rankings here at MLBTR yesterday, the class includes Trea Turner, Carlos Correa (who’s expected to opt out of the final two years and $70.7MM of his Twins deal this winter), Xander Bogaerts (who’ll opt out of the final three years and $60MM on his Red Sox deal) and Dansby Swanson.

It’s obviously far too early to make any definitive statements regarding who’ll sign where over the winter, and it bears emphasizing that speculation this time of year often doesn’t align with reality when the offseason dust settles. (A year ago this time, the common speculation was that Correa would reunite with former Astros skipper AJ Hinch in Detroit. A few years back, Patrick Corbin and the Yankees were linked to one another just about every week.) Signing one of the “big” shortstops would likely require the largest commitment the Cubs have made since signing Yu Darvish to a six-year, $126MM contract in free agency — and each of the four can be reasonably expected to clear that sum on the open market this year.

Correa was reported to be a target of the Cubs last winter, but he revealed in a July interview with Gordon Wittenmyer that in spite of some conversation, he never received an actual offer. The Cubs ultimately signed the recently released Andrelton Simmons to a one-year, $4MM deal.

More from Wrigley…

  • The Cubs aren’t certain whether they’ll get Kyle Hendricks back this season, although manager David Ross tells reporters that the right-hander’s latest MRI revealed only continued inflammation and some indications that the 32-year-old is “getting better” (link via Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago). Hendricks, who hasn’t pitched since July 5, will be shut down for an additional week, at which point the Cubs’ medical staff will reevaluate him. Hendricks, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $55.5MM contract extension, posted a 4.80 ERA through 16 starts when healthy enough to pitch. For the time being, the team’s focus is solely on getting Hendricks healthy and not necessarily on getting him back into game shape, Ross suggested, which makes sense for a player who’s signed for $14MM next season on a team with no postseason hopes. “I don’t think getting him back in games is a top priority for everyone,” said Ross. “But if he is able to get to that space, I think that’s a win for everyone.”
  • “Cubs bench coach Andy Green and assistant hitting coach know recently claimed slugger Franmil Reyes quite well from the trio’s time together in San Diego, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times points out. Green admitted to “fist pumping” when he learned the club had been awarded the waiver claim on Reyes, and both he and Washington effused praise for Reyes’ clubhouse demeanor and energy. As Lee explores, the Cubs’ decision to option Frank Schwindel following the Reyes claim — much like the decision to option David Bote after acquiring Zach McKinstry — signal a shift to beginning to evaluate newly acquired and/or untested players over the season’s final few months rather than sticking with struggling veterans whom the club knows a bit better.
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Chicago Cubs Notes Carlos Correa Dansby Swanson Franmil Reyes Kyle Hendricks Trea Turner Xander Bogaerts

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2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

By Steve Adams | August 9, 2022 at 11:57pm CDT

A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Aaron Judge | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the  past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four-  and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

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2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Newsstand San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Aaron Judge Carlos Correa Carlos Rodon Dansby Swanson Edwin Diaz Jacob deGrom Justin Verlander Nolan Arenado Trea Turner Xander Bogaerts

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MLB Announces 2022 All-Star Starters

By Darragh McDonald | July 8, 2022 at 10:30pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2022 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, July 19. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

American League

  • Catcher: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays (1st selection)
  • First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (2nd selection)
  • Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros (8th selection)
  • Third base: Rafael Devers, Red Sox (2nd selection)
  • Shortstop: Tim Anderson, White Sox (2nd selection)
  • Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees (4th selection)
  • Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels (10th selection)
  • Outfield: Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (5th selection)
  • Designated hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels (2nd selection)

National League

  • Catcher: Willson Contreras, Cubs (3rd selection)
  • First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (8th selection)
  • Second base: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins (1st selection)
  • Third base: Manny Machado, Padres (6th selection)
  • Shortstop: Trea Turner, Dodgers (2nd selection)
  • Outfield: Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (3rd selection)
  • Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers (6th selection)
  • Outfield: Joc Pederson, Giants (2nd selection)
  • Designated hitter: Bryce Harper, Phillies (7th selection)
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2022 All-Star Game Aaron Judge Alejandro Kirk Bryce Harper Giancarlo Stanton Jazz Chisholm Joc Pederson Jose Altuve Manny Machado Mike Trout Mookie Betts Paul Goldschmidt Rafael Devers Ronald Acuna Shohei Ohtani Tim Anderson Trea Turner Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Willson Contreras

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Cubs, Phillies Expected To Pursue Marquee Shortstops This Offseason

By Darragh McDonald | June 5, 2022 at 11:05pm CDT

The most recent offseason featured a huge crop of star free agents, with the five top-tier shortstops being one of the most exciting elements, as Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez and Trevor Story all reached the open market at the same time. In about five months’ time, another offseason will begin, and though the crop of available shortstops won’t be quite as strong, it still has the potential to be noteworthy.

MLBTR recently released its first Free Agent Power Rankings for the upcoming winter, and although red-hot outfielder Aaron Judge nabbed the top spot, he was followed by three shortstops in the 2, 3 and 4 slots: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. (Correa and Bogaerts both have opt-outs that they are expected to trigger.) In today’s column from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, he reports that the Cubs could be big spenders this winter, naming those three shortstops as their primary targets. “I guarantee you they’re going to get one of them,” an unnamed veteran general manager tells Nightengale, who also says that several executives are predicting the Phillies to be sitting at this table as well.

Cubs manager David Ross recently spoke about letting Nico Hoerner serve as the team’s primary shortstop for the remainder of the year, though he’s also spent a decent amount of time at second base, as well as occasionally lining up at third base and in the outfield. It seems the club may be leaning towards a big addition at shortstop and bumping Hoerner over to second base next year.

After a big trade deadline fire sale in 2021, the Cubs were expected to have a fairly quiet offseason this past winter. However, they surprised many people by making a few somewhat aggressive moves. They didn’t land any of the big five shortstops, though they did give out multi-year deals to Seiya Suzuki, Marcus Stroman and Yan Gomes.

The club is currently sporting a record of 23-31, six games back of the final playoff spot. There’s still time for them to gain some ground, though it’s also possible they go into the trade deadline as sellers this year. But regardless of how they fare for the remainder of this season, they should have spending power this winter. Suzuki is the only player currently under contract for the 2025 season, although the Cubs also have a $7MM club option for David Bote that year. Stroman’s contract runs through 2024, though he can opt out after the 2023 season. Kyle Hendricks and Yan Gomes could also be free agents after 2023, as they have options for 2024.

In short, there’s not a lot preventing the club from making a big splash this winter if they want to. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the team ran out Opening Day payrolls in the vicinity of $200MM from 2016 to 2019, but got that number below $150MM last year and this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $94MM at the moment, then just $50MM in 2024 and $20MM in 2025. Arbitration-eligible players will add to those numbers, but not by a lot. If they want to be aggressive in getting out of this rebuild/retool/whatever period, the opportunity is there.

The Phillies, however, are in a very different situation. They had a very aggressive offseason, giving out big contracts to both Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, pushing the club beyond the luxury tax line for the first time. Despite that aggressiveness, they’ve struggled over the first third of the season, going into today’s action with a record of 24-29, 4 1/2 games behind the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.

There was some speculation that they would dive into the shortstop sweepstakes this past winter, though they ultimately decided to stick with the in-house options of Didi Gregorius and prospect Bryson Stott. Gregorius is currently on the IL due to a sprained knee, but was performing okay before that. His .288/.338/.356 line amounts to a 97 wRC+, slightly below league average but much better than the 68 wRC+ he had last year. Regardless, he’s a free agent after this year, giving the club an opening next year. Stott could theoretically fill that void, though he’s struggled in his first taste of MLB action. Through 27 games, he’s hitting just .157/.222/.217 for a wRC+ of just 26. If the Phils were to go out and nab a big fish in free agency, Stott could spend more time in the minors or perhaps shift over to another infield position to try and force his way into the lineup, having played some second and third base as well.

Despite getting into luxury tax territory this year, the club should be able to be aggressive again next winter with many contracts coming off the books. Martinez puts their 2023 payroll at $129MM, well shy of this year’s $232MM, though that doesn’t include a $17MM option for Jean Segura, the $16MM option for Aaron Nola or salaries for arbitration-eligible players, including Rhys Hoskins. Regardless of whether they can turn their 2022 season around, it seems they may keep their foot on the gas pedal going forward, as they look to snap a postseason drought that goes back to 2011.

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Chicago Cubs Philadelphia Phillies Carlos Correa Trea Turner Xander Bogaerts

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Dodgers Didn’t Make Extension Offer To Trea Turner

By Mark Polishuk | April 9, 2022 at 7:18pm CDT

Trea Turner and the Dodgers avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a one-year, $21MM salary for the 2022 season, but those were seemingly the only contract talks between the two sides this winter.  Turner told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that the team told him that no extension offer would be coming prior to the start of the season.  Earlier this offseason prior to the lockout, Turner said that the Dodgers had engaged in some light but nonspecific negotiations about a possible long-term deal, without any offers or numbers exchanged.

Turner didn’t sound upset about the lack of talks, saying “the money will take care of itself.  It’s why you have agents and whatnot….I just asked them to be honest with me.  They were honest with me, a few days ago, a week ago, whatever it was.  It’s time to play, and time to try to win a World Series.”

It doesn’t seem likely that any negotiating will take place during the season, with Turner now focused on baseball and simply because it’s rare for such major impending free agents to agree to extensions as they get closer and closer to the open market.  Assuming he delivers his usual numbers in 2022, the shortstop projects as arguably the top free agent of the 2022-23 class.

Despite the lack of talks to date with the Dodgers, a return to Los Angeles can’t be ruled out.  For one, the free-spending Dodgers are one of the teams best suited to pay the mega-contract that Turner will demand on the open market.  L.A. has also been willing to let major names (such as Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Clayton Kershaw) all test in the market in the past before eventually re-signing them.

The Dodgers have quite a bit of money coming off the books next winter, though a lot of that space could be taken up by extensions, options being exercised, and escalating arbitration costs.  Furthermore, with the Dodgers approaching the top $290MM penalty threshold of the luxury tax, it’s possible the front office could slightly dial things back by “only” spending at the next tier down.

If Turner did leave, the Dodgers might look to replace him with Gavin Lux, should Lux establish himself as a quality big leaguer this season.  Utilityman Chris Taylor is another in-house option, but since this is the Dodgers we’re talking about, the club could explore bringing in another star name via trade (like how Turner himself was acquired essentially as Corey Seager’s replacement) or via free agency — Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts are two of the shortstops expected to opt out of their contracts after the season.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Trea Turner

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Dodgers, Trea Turner Avoid Arbitration

By Anthony Franco | March 22, 2022 at 6:35pm CDT

The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with star shortstop Trea Turner, settling on a $21MM salary, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). That marks the highest arbitration settlement of any player in this year’s class so far.

That’s not to say it’s an especially surprising figure. Turner always looked likely to land one of the top numbers of any arb-eligible player. Not only is he one of the sport’s best players, he’s headed into his fourth year of arbitration after qualifying as a Super Two in 2018. Turner settled for $13MM with the Nationals last offseason, and he’ll get an $8MM bump this year.

Still, that $21MM mark checks in a bit higher than anticipated. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the star infielder at $19.8MM entering the offseason. He earned the bump after putting up a .328/.375/.536 line with 28 homers and 32 steals between the Dodgers and Nats. That .328 average earned him his first career batting title.

Turner will return to shortstop after kicking over to second base in deference to Corey Seager down the stretch last year. With another typical season, he’d hit the market as perhaps MLB’s top free agent next offseason.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Trea Turner

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Padres Had “Strong Interest” In Trea Turner At Trade Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | August 10, 2021 at 9:02am CDT

The Dodgers’ blockbuster acquisition of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner was the biggest news of deadline season, though Los Angeles wasn’t the only NL West power looking to land that same duo from the Nationals.  The Padres were reportedly close to getting Scherzer, and FanSided’s Robert Murray writes that San Diego also had “strong interest” in obtaining Turner.

Despite all these talks, there still seemed to be some distance between the Padres and Nationals in talks.  Murray writes that “a deal was never close” for Turner, while even the Scherzer negotiations were described by one Washington source as “general back and forth.”

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman shed some more light on the Padres/Nationals talks, reporting that the Padres “floated a serious package” for both Scherzer and Turner, “with the idea of offering even more if Nats came back to them.”  Washington apparently didn’t check back in with the Padres, instead taking the Dodgers’ offer of Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Gerardo Carrillo, and Donovan Casey.  As a counter to Ruiz, San Diego’s offer might have also included a top-tier catching prospect, as Heyman says the Padres and Nationals discussed Luis Campusano.

Had Turner landed in San Diego, the initial plan likely would have been to install him at second base, just as the Dodgers did in order to fit both Turner and incumbent star shortstop Corey Seager into the same lineup.  Turner and Fernando Tatis Jr. would have formed quite a combo up the middle for the Padres, though Turner would have ended up playing shortstop anyway, if Tatis had also re-injured his shoulder in this alternate reality.  Turner might have also been the shortstop anyway, had a healthy Tatis instead been moved to the outfield in order to help preserve his shoulder.

Should Scherzer and Turner help the Dodgers win this year (or in 2022 when Turner will still be under contract), Padres fans will look back on this missed trade with regret, though of course it isn’t known exactly what the Nationals would have demanded from San Diego.  The Dodgers and Padres are currently on pace to meet in the NL wild card game, with Los Angeles holding a three-game lead over San Diego in the standings.  The Padres also have to worry about the surging Reds, who have moved to 3.5 games back of that second wild card berth.

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San Diego Padres Washington Nationals Luis Campusano Max Scherzer Trea Turner

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Trea Turner Discusses Lack Of Extension Talks With Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | August 7, 2021 at 7:30pm CDT

The trade deadline’s biggest swap saw Max Scherzer and Trea Turner sent to the Dodgers in exchange for four prospects, officially marking the end of an era for the Nationals.  Due to a positive COVID-19 test and a subsequent quarantine, Turner didn’t make his Dodgers debut until yesterday, and didn’t officially meet with the media (including Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post) until today, and the shortstop shared some details about the end of his time in D.C.

For starters, Turner confirmed reports that the Nats hadn’t made him a new extension offer since their earlier talks concluded in March 2020.  Last week, Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said talks were being held off due to a request from Turner and his CAA Sports representatives, as Turner’s camp preferred to see how this winter’s free agent shortstop class reset market expectations.  (Turner himself isn’t scheduled for free agency until after the 2022 season.)

However, Turner had a different version of events, telling reporters “I said I would talk about an extension whenever and waited for that to happen, and it didn’t happen.  So I’ve been told a lot of things over the last two years and, for me, actions speak louder than words.  That’s kind of in the past now, it’s over with, and excited to start a new chapter.”

Back in March, Rizzo said the Nats were planning to issue long-term extension offers to both Turner and Juan Soto, yet it appears nothing was sent in Turner’s direction.  It could be that the club did plan to re-engage with Turner’s agents at some point, except the team’s slide down the standings in July then altered Washington’s plans for both the short- and long-term.  Four days prior to the trade deadline, Peter Gammons reported that Nationals ownership wasn’t planning to retain Turner on an extension, which kicked the rumor mill into high gear.

Not only did the Nats clean house and move most of their players signed only through 2021, the fire sale also extended to players with slightly more team control.  Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Will Harris are now the only Nationals on guaranteed money for 2022, and the Nats now seem to be aiming towards a somewhat larger-scale retrenching around Soto (controlled via arbitration through 2024) as their cornerstone.

That made Turner expendable, and adding him along with Scherzer resulted in a nice haul of prospects from Los Angeles.The next interesting wrinkle will be to see how extension talks might develop between Turner and the Dodgers during the 2021-22 offseason.  Turner’s presence gives the Dodgers a logical replacement if Corey Seager leaves in free agency this winter, and as we’ve seen with several notable names (i.e. Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner), the Dodgers have been aggressive in locking up players they see as major building blocks.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals Trea Turner

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Dodgers Activate Trea Turner; Jimmy Nelson To Undergo Elbow Surgery

By Anthony Franco | August 6, 2021 at 8:28pm CDT

The Dodgers announced they’ve reinstated Trea Turner from the COVID-19 injured list. He’s not in tonight’s starting lineup, but he could make his team debut off the bench this evening. Reliever Victor González has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 4, with right knee inflammation to open active roster space. To create 40-man roster space, the team has transferred righty Jimmy Nelson to the 60-day injured list. Nelson will undergo Tommy John surgery and a right flexor tendon repair procedure.

Whether tonight or tomorrow, Turner is soon to get into his first game as a Dodger. The All-Star shortstop came over alongside Max Scherzer last week as part of deadline season’s top blockbuster. The 28-year-old had tested positive for COVID-19 shortly before the trade, though, so he’s remained in isolation until today.

Turner adds another elite player to a lineup already chock-full of stars. He’s hitting .322/.369/.521 with eighteen home runs across 420 plate appearances, his second consecutive season of elite offensive output. One of the game’s best baserunners, Turner has also swiped 21 bags, all while playing average or better defense at shortstop. The whole package makes Turner one of the sport’s most valuable position players, although he seems likely to slide over to second base in deference to Corey Seager in L.A. Wherever he plays, Turner should be a massive boon to a Dodger club that trails the league-best Giants by four games in the NL West.

It’s not all positive news on the health front for the Dodgers with Nelson undergoing surgery. While the club didn’t provide a timetable for his return beyond ruling him out for the rest of this season, it seems likely he’ll miss the entire 2022 campaign rehabbing. It’s crushing news for a respected, high-quality pitcher who has been plagued by a series of long-term health issues in recent seasons.

Nelson looked like a potential top-of-the-rotation starter after a stellar 2017 season with the Brewers. A shoulder injury cost him the entire 2018 campaign, though. That kept him out for a good chunk of the 2019 season too, with an elbow injury costing him another month that year. Nelson was ineffective when he was healthy enough to pitch, and Milwaukee non-tendered him at the end of that season.

The Dodgers signed Nelson during the 2019-20 offseason, but a July back surgery prevented him from pitching all year. Los Angeles brought Nelson back on a minor league deal to work in relief, and he made good on his end of that agreement. The 32-year-old pitched to a sterling 1.86 ERA over 29 frames this year, emerging as a potential high-leverage option for manager Dave Roberts. Unfortunately, he landed on the IL with elbow inflammation on Wednesday. That issue apparently requires surgical repair.

Nelson will hit free agency at the end of this season. He could field some multi-year offers from teams with an eye toward the 2023 campaign. Alternatively, Nelson could rehab the injury on his own and look to market himself to clubs after he has returned to health. Either way, it’s a devastating turn of events for a player who has already overcome more than his fair share of health issues.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Jimmy Nelson Trea Turner Victor Gonzalez

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