Trey Mancini

Astros Acquire Trey Mancini In Three-Team Trade; Jose Siri Dealt From Houston To Rays

By Anthony Franco | August 1, 2022 at 5:10pm CDT

The Astros have landed the offensive upgrade they’d been seeking, acquiring first baseman Trey Mancini from the Orioles as part of a three-team trade. Center fielder José Siri goes from Houston to Tampa Bay, while a trio of pitching prospects also find themselves on the move. The Rays send Seth Johnson to the Orioles, while they move Jayden Murray to Houston. Chayce McDermott heads from the Astros to the Orioles to complete the deal. In order to clear a spot for Siri on the 40-man roster, Tampa Bay designated outfielder Brett Phillips for assignment.

Mancini has a .268/.347/.404 line through 401 plate appearances. He’s connected on just ten home runs, a bit shy of the 21-plus homer pace he posted in every healthy season between 2017-21. Despite the decreased power production, Mancini has an above-average 10% barrel rate and 89.6 MPH average exit velocity that are each in line with his career marks. It seems Mancini’s dip in longballs is more tied to changes in the ball and the Orioles’ deepening of the left field wall than an indication his power has truly taken a step back.

The right-handed hitting Mancini also has a typically solid blend of strikeouts and walks. He’s fanning in 21.4% of his plate appearances, a bit less than league average and among the lower rates of his career. Mancini’s a well-rounded bat who’ll presumably cut into the playing time of Yuli Gurriel. The reigning AL batting champion is a longtime member of the Houston organization, but he has an underwhelming .243/.293/.392 line on the year. Houston has reportedly been on the hunt for offensive upgrades who could supplant Gurriel on the depth chart. While the club was previously tied to Josh Bell and Willson Contreras, they’ve pivoted to Mancini.

It’s another addition to a Houston club that already boasts one of the league’s top lineups. The Astros enter play Monday with a .240/.318/.425 line that translates to offense 13 percentage points better than league average, according to wRC+. Houston’s raw run-scoring total is a bit less impressive, though, as the club ranks 12th in the majors with 461 runs scored.

Mancini has a bit of experience in the corner outfield, but he’s primarily an option at first base or designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker as their primary right fielder, but left fielder Michael Brantley has been on the injured list for over a month and still has an uncertain recovery timeline. Yordan Álvarez has designated hitter accounted for, leaving first base and perhaps some occasional fill-in work in left as the clearest path to playing time.

For the past few months, Mancini has looked like one of the better bats who might be available this summer. The Orioles, though, have gone 16-7 this month to pull themselves back to .500. Baltimore is within three games of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, seemingly at least raising some questions about how motivated they’d be to deal players off the MLB roster. At least in the case of Mancini, they remain committed to their goal of bolstering the roster for 2023 and beyond, but it’s a move that’s likely to disappoint at least some segment of the clubhouse and fanbase.

Mancini had been a career-long member of the organization, one of the few productive big leaguers to remain on the MLB roster throughout the franchise’s recent rebuild. He’s long been well-regarded in the community, and that’s become particularly true in the wake of his overcoming colon cancer in 2020. He was deservedly named the AL’s Comeback Player of the Year last season.

The 30-year-old Mancini is likely to be a free agent at season’s end, making him a rental pickup for the Astros. He’s playing this year on a $7.5MM salary, around $2.72MM of which is still to be paid out. Houston will assume that tab as well as the $250K buyout on a $10MM mutual option for 2023. (Mutual options are almost never exercised by both player and team, and Mancini seems likely to forego his end in search of a multi-year pact this winter).

Despite being at least vaguely in playoff contention, the Orioles will continue to look towards the future. They’ll add a pair of young arms, neither of whom is going to impact the club in 2022. Johnson is the more well-known of the duo. The 40th overall pick in the 2019 draft, he’s a former college shortstop who has flashed impressive stuff and dominated low level hitters in his limited time on the mound. Baseball America recently ranked him as the #9 prospect in a deep Rays system, praising his mid-upper 90s fastball and a slider that sometimes earns plus-plus grades (a 70 on the 20-80 scale) from evaluators. An excellent athlete, the 23-year-old is generally regarded as a possible mid-rotation starter, although he’s yet to reach Double-A.

Johnson pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 93 2/3 innings at Low-A last season, striking out an excellent 29% of opposing hitters. He’d fanned an even better 37.3% of batters faced through his first seven starts at High-A this year, but he’s been out since May 20 with an injury that’ll reportedly require Tommy John surgery. Johnson will have to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of this season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. As he faces an extended injury absence and not especially close to big league readiness, devoting him an offseason 40-man spot could be easier for the O’s than it’d have been a Tampa Bay team with plenty of upper level depth.

The Rays also part ways with Murray, whom they selected in the 23rd round of the 2019 draft. A Dixie State product, the right-hander has made a brief cameo at Triple-A but spent the bulk of the season at Double-A Montgomery. He owns a 2.83 ERA over 16 appearances (15 starts), offsetting a modest 20.5% strikeout rate with a tiny 7.3% walk percentage while inducing grounders on almost half the balls in play against him. He adds a volume strike-thrower and possible back-of-the-rotation arm to the upper levels of the Houston farm system; he’ll have to be added to the 40-man roster this winter or made available in the Rule 5 draft.

In exchange, Tampa Bay bolsters its immediate outfield mix. Siri, 27, is a former top Reds prospect who stalled out towards the end of his time in the Cincinnati system. He’s appeared in the majors in each of the past two seasons since signing a minor league deal with Houston over the 2020-21 offseason. Siri raked in a 21-game stint late last year, but he’s struggled over a longer follow-up this season. Through 196 cumulative plate appearances, he’s hitting .210/.265/.381 with a massive 33.2% strikeout rate as a big leaguer.

At the same time, it’s easy to see why he’s of interest to a Rays team that — even after picking up David Peralta over the weekend — is fairly short-handed in the outfield after losing Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier and Harold Ramírez to injury. Siri has big power and speed, and he’s obliterated Triple-A pitching over 16 games this year. He hit .318/.369/.552 through 397 plate appearances at the minors top level last year, and he can be optioned to Triple-A Durham for the remainder of this season.

That isn’t the case for Phillips, who is out of minor league options. A gifted defensive outfielder, Phillips appeared in 75 games for Tampa Bay this season across all three spots on the grass. He’s hitting just .147/.225/.250 with a strikeout rate north of 40%, though, and the struggles at the plate became too much for the Tampa Bay front office to ignore. The Rays can deal Phillips over the next day, or he’ll find himself on waivers. He’s making $1.4MM, but his power, defense and affable clubhouse presence could lead another team to take a shot on him as a depth option.

McDermott, meanwhile, is the final piece of the deal from the Orioles perspective. A fourth-round pick out of Ball State last year, the 23-year-old righty has spent the season in High-A. He has a huge 35.4% strikeout rate through 72 innings there, starting 10 of his 19 outings. That has come with an alarming 13.4% walk rate, though. Baseball America recently named him the #6 prospect in a thin Houston farm system, praising his 92-96 MPH fastball and a pair of possible above-average breaking pitches in his slider and curveball.

Dan Connolly of the Athletic first reported Mancini was being traded to Houston. Roch Kutbako of MASNsports.com reported the Orioles were receiving multiple pitching prospects. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report it was a three-team trade that would send Siri to Tampa Bay; Rosenthal was also first to report Johnson going to the Orioles. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the Rays’ designation of Phillips for assignment. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with Baltimore’s acquisition of McDermott.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Rumors: Bell, Mancini, Szapucki

By Steve Adams | July 25, 2022 at 4:16pm CDT

There’s not much traction at present between the Nationals and Mets on a potential Josh Bell swap, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. Bell is one of several designated hitter candidates in whom the Mets are known to have interest, but it seems as though talks between the two parties haven’t proved fruitful. Pat Ragazzo and Michael Marino of Sports Illustrated/Fan Nation report that the Mets put forth an offer for Bell and a Nationals reliever that included an upper-level minor league starter and outfielder.

The Mets moved last week to begin augmenting their DH rotation, flipping reliever Colin Holderman to the Pirates in a trade that brought Daniel Vogelbach back to Queens. Vogelbach, however, figures to be a pure platoon option, whereas the switch-hitting Bell would be an everyday option who’d push Vogelbach into a bench role. The Mets have continued to look for potential DH upgrades even in the wake of the Voeglbach deal, Martino writes, with Trey Mancini, C.J. Cron and Willson Contreras among those who might still be under consideration.

They won’t have the opportunity to evaluate Mancini today, as he’ll take a seat on the heels of an 0-for-22 swoon at the plate. That offensive freefall has dropped Mancini’s batting line from a robust .285/.359/.429 (124 wRC+) to .268/.345/.404 (113 wRC+). Mancini has still been better than a league-average hitter on the whole, but it’s a poor time for him to struggle through his toughest patch of the season, particularly from a team vantage point.

The Orioles won 10 games in a row to thrust themselves onto the fringes of the American Wild Card chase prior to the deadline, but they’ve since gone 2-4 against the Rays and Yankees in a pair of road series. Mancini’s slump obviously isn’t the sole cause of the team’s momentum slowing down, but it was a contributing factor as Baltimore dropped a few close games. It’s also suboptimal for a club that could still move Mancini prior to next Tuesday’s trade deadline; an 0-for-22 doesn’t wipe out all of Mancini’s trade value, of course, but it’s tougher for a rival front office to give up a prospect of note for a hitter in such a pronounced slump.

Cron has a robust .292/.347/.546 line on the year, but it’s questionable whether the Rockies would consider moving him when he’s cheaply signed for 2023, particularly since Colorado GM Bill Schmidt has already pushed back against a major sell-off. Contreras seems a virtual lock to move in the next eight days, but the Mets reluctance to deal from the top of the farm system would make landing perhaps the top rental bat available a challenge.

Bell, Mancini and Vogelbach were just a handful of the Mets’ reported targets as they look to bolster the lineup, and Martino reported last week that GM Billy Eppler and his team were exploring trade scenarios involving both Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. Clearly, there’s some turnover to be expected. Martino even floats the possibility of the Mets dealing Vogelbach if they land an impact bat, although there’s no indication that’s especially likely.

The exact return the Mets might surrender in order to bolster the lineup is, of course, wholly dependent on the caliber of player on which they settle — but Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that minor league lefty Thomas Szapucki has drawn some interest from other teams as New York has poked around the trade market. The 26-year-old lefty has yielded a staggering 15 runs in just five Major League innings across the past two seasons, but Szapucki has had a nice year in Triple-A Syracuse, pitching to a 3.48 ERA with a huge 31.9% strikeout rate against an 11% walk rate in 62 innings.

Those 62 frames have been scattered over 16 starts, which comes out to an average of under four innings per outing. That’s a bit of a strange phenomenon, even in today’s game, but the Mets have been cautious with Szapucki’s workload after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 and season-ending surgery on his ulnar nerve last summer. He began the year throwing just two to three innings per start but has continued to build up his pitch count over the course of the year, peaking with a season-high 93 pitches back on July 6.

The Mets and other clubs may want to be cautious with his overall innings total and his pitch count on a game-to-game basis, but he’s a reasonably youthful lefty who can be controlled at least six years beyond the current campaign. Even if there’s some injury risk, he has three average or better pitches and could certainly operate as a multi-inning reliever down the road if his arm doesn’t prove capable of a starter’s workload. Speculatively, Szapucki would fit the billing of the “upper-level starting pitcher” the Mets are said to have offered to Washington in Bell talks, though there’s no specific indication that Szapucki was part of that offer.

Mets Exploring Trade Market For DH Options

By Steve Adams | July 22, 2022 at 9:39am CDT

The Mets are exploring the market for a number of bats as they look to upgrade over what has been a generally unproductive tandem of Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis at designated hitter, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Nationals sluggers Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz, Colorado’s C.J. Cron and Baltimore’s Trey Mancini (as previously reported) are among the names in play.

Metsmerized’s Michael Mayer reported this week that the Mets have also had talks with the Pirates about left-handed-hitting Daniel Vogelbach, who is signed to a highly affordable $1MM contract with a $1.5MM option for the 2023 season. FanSided’s Robert Murray hears the same, though Murray notes that there are multiple teams inquiring about Vogelbach’s availability (as is surely the case with the Mets’ other reported targets). Martino describes conversations with the Pirates regarding Vogelbach as “active.”

The 29-year-old Vogelbach would surely be viewed as a platoon option in Queens, as he’s never hit lefties well and has again posted an inept .141/.267/.156 batting line against them. However, he’s crushed righties to the tune of a .260/.365/.532 batting line, swatting a dozen homers, nine doubles and a triple in just 203 trips to the plate when holding the platoon advantage this year. Vogelbach’s has long been a productive hitter against righties, and he’s not all that far removed from a smashing a career-high 30 homers with the 2019 Mariners.

There’s some appeal to Vogelbach beyond the strong platoon work and next year’s affordable club option, too. He entered the year with three-plus years of Major League service time, meaning that even after a club exercises next year’s option — which seems likely, whether it’s the Pirates, Mets or another trade partner — he’s still controllable through the 2024 season. Vogelbach would be arbitration-eligible in the 2023-24 offseason before reaching free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.

The 29-year-old Bell is hitting .311/.390/.504 with 13 home runs this season, striking out at a career-low 13.5% and drawing walks at a hearty 10.7% pace. He’s earning $10MM this season, and while the Nationals might be wary of sending long-term pieces to the division-rival Mets (e.g. Juan Soto), Bell is a free agent at the end of the year, which probably eliminates any such concerns from Washington’s vantage point.

It’s a similar story for the 42-year-old Cruz, who’s earning $15MM this season and has a mutual option for the 2023 campaign. Those are rarely exercised by both parties, however, and players with mutual options are generally considered rentals for this reason. Cruz got out to an awful start in 2022 but has produced a solid .283/.362/.425 batting line in his past 247 plate appearances. He’s only homered six times in that span, showing a decidedly uncharacteristic lack of power, but Cruz has still been a productive hitter if you’re willing to set aside a slow start to the year.

As for Cron, it’s understandable that the Mets would harbor interest, but a deal seems unlikely to come together. Although the Rockies are 19 games out of the NL West lead and six and a half games back of the NL’s third Wild Card spot, the organization has opted not to deal what look to be on-paper trade candidates for years now. Ownership in Denver steadfastly believes the foundation of a contending club is in place, as evidenced by the glut of extensions doled out over the past year (as well as the surprising signing of Kris Bryant to a seven-year deal).

One need look no further than last year’s deadline to see that Cron isn’t likely to be moved. The Rockies were in this position a year ago, when Cron was playing on a cheap one-year deal and looked like a slam-dunk candidate to be flipped to a contender. The Rockies instead kept him and inked Cron to a two-year, $14.5MM extension. To their credit, Cron has been overwhelming bargain, hitting .298/.350/.552 with 21 homers this year. That’s outstanding production, but if the Rox balked at moving him a year ago when he was a free-agent-to-be, it only stands to reason that they’d be further dissuaded from trading him now (even though the contract likely makes him more appealing to potential suitors). General manager Bill Schmidt said just last week that he does not expect to be a major seller this summer.

Any of the names listed here would likely serve as an upgrade over the combined .219/.300/.368 batting line that Mets designated hitters have put together this season. That production includes 90 very productive plate appearances by Pete Alonso as DH, which only underscores how rough the non-Alonso DH options have been at Citi Field this season.

As for what would happen with the current DH options the Mets have in-house, it somewhat unsurprisingly seems as though a change of scenery may be in the fold. Smith was just placed on the injured list due to an ankle sprain but could return by the middle of next week. The Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams to have talked to the Mets about a potential trade. Martino writes that the Mets are “working to trade Smith,” adding that Davis could be moved as well.

Smith has struggled in 2021-22 after a hugely productive 2019-20 showing, while Davis’ power numbers have tumbled this year despite eye-popping exit velocity and hard-hit numbers. Both are controllable for two years beyond the current campaign, which might make them appealing to a club that’s not a current contender but can afford to give Smith or Davis consistent playing time while showing a bit more patience than the Mets have the luxury of doing in a competitive setting atop the NL East.

Latest On Orioles’ Deadline Outlook

By Anthony Franco | July 12, 2022 at 8:43pm CDT

The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

Should The Orioles Rethink Their Trade Deadline Approach?

By Anthony Franco | July 11, 2022 at 6:30pm CDT

Few teams in baseball are playing as well as the Orioles lately. That’s not what anyone would have imagined entering the season or as recently as a couple weeks ago. As the calendar flipped to July, Baltimore was 35-43 and separated by six teams in the American League Wild Card standings. They were among the handful most clear-cut deadline sellers in the sport. Six Baltimore players were placed among MLBTR’s Top 50 trade candidates last Friday.

Fast forward just a few days, and the O’s have done everything in their power to make the front office think twice about selling. They’ve rattled off successive sweeps of the Rangers and Angels and carry an eight-game win streak. Pair that with a dreadful past week and a half for teams like the Blue Jays and Guardians — who were at or near the top of the Wild Card heap — and Baltimore has closed a stunning amount of ground. They head into play Monday two back of the final AL playoff spot, which is currently shared by the Mariners and Jays. They’ll have a chance to climb back to .500 tomorrow evening against the Cubs.

The Orioles aren’t going to continue winning indefinitely, of course. Their successive sweeps came against two below-average teams, and the Angels in particular have been in an absolute tailspin. Yet their solid play hasn’t been confined just to the past week and a half. They’re 22-14 since the start of June, outscoring opponents by 29 runs (170-141) over that stretch. That’s an arbitrary cutoff, and one can’t dismiss a 7-14 April that buried them in the standings right out of the gate. Yet this has at least been the best stretch of play for the franchise since their rebuild began in 2018, and they’ve gotten themselves into the playoff picture.

Will that be enough to deter the front office from moving some players off the roster for future talent? General manager Mike Elias struck a cautious tone speaking with reporters last week (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). “Everything that I do or that we do has tradeoffs, and all I can say is, we do everything from a very global, a very thoughtful perspective about what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles’ franchise,” Elias said. “I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m saying we’re taking a look at everything as we make these decisions and we’ll see what happens.”

The front office certainly doesn’t seem ready to declare the rebuild over and part with high-end talent to add pieces for the 2022 stretch run. Each of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference has the club’s odds of reaching the playoffs below 10%. Even as they’ve played their way back into the picture, it’s fair to wonder whether the roster — the starting rotation especially — can hold up for another two and a half months. Few would argue the Orioles are a better team than the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays or Red Sox, yet they’ll have to outplay multiple members of that group (and hold off a handful of teams just behind them) to get to the playoffs. Even were they to add some rotation help and/or upgrade on any of Jorge Mateo, Ramón Urías or Rougned Odor around the infield, the O’s would remain postseason longshots.

If Elias and his staff aren’t likely to pivot and aggressively add before the deadline, there’s still room for them to stay the course without selling. By and large, the O’s current core can be kept around beyond this season. Baltimore has just three impending free agents on the roster. Odor and backup catcher Robinson Chirinos aren’t going to attract trade interest anyhow, meaning the only key rental for the O’s to decide upon is Trey Mancini. (His deal technically contains a $10MM mutual option for 2023, but he’s likely to decline that and seek a multi-year free agent deal).

Mancini is having a good season, carrying a .281/.353/.420 line across 331 plate appearances. He’d attract a decent amount of interest as one of the better rental bats available were the Orioles to shop him over the next few weeks. Still, as an impending free agent with defensive limitations, he won’t bring back an eye-popping return. Baltimore almost certainly wouldn’t recoup a prospect generally regarded as a top 100 caliber player in a deal. In all likelihood, they’d land a couple of players most evaluators view as middle-tier prospects from another organization.

A Mancini trade would add talent to an already-deep farm system, but would there be enough appeal to pull the trigger if the Orioles remain within three or four games of a Wild Card spot by the August 2 deadline? In addition to his on-field value, the 30-year-old first baseman is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence. He’s a fan favorite, and his overcoming a 2020 battle with colon cancer makes him one of the sport’s easiest players to support. Dealing Mancini if the Orioles were 10+ games back would’ve been unpopular with some segment of the fanbase; trading him if the team continues playing well and remains on the fringes of contention would be even more so. That’d be equally true in the clubhouse.

Baltimore’s highest-value assets are under a longer window of club control. Outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays can be kept around through 2025. They looked unlikely to change hands no matter how this season’s first half went, and that’s all the more true with the club showing signs of life. Closer Jorge López could be more likely to move given the inherent volatility with relief pitching, but he’s arbitration-eligible through 2024. That’s also true of corner outfielder Anthony Santander, who’d have more modest interest than any of Mullins, Hays or López given his defensive shortcomings and up-and-down career track record at the dish.

Things should get harder for the O’s over the next few weeks. After a two-game set with Chicago, they’ll split their next ten games between the Rays (seven) and Yankees (three). Their final series of July will be in Cincinnati, followed by one pre-deadline matchup with Texas. Drop ten or 11 of those contests, and the O’s probably end up as sellers, at least parting with Mancini. If they can go 8-8 or 9-7 over that stretch, though, Elias and his staff will have to decide on a team hovering around .500 and likely within shouting distance of a playoff spot for the first time in six years.

The front office is certainly going to remain mindful of the long-term outlook. They’re not going to suddenly jump into the Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas bidding, although perhaps they could entertain the idea of adding a lower-impact starter with a lengthier window of remaining control. Yet the team has played well enough of late to give themselves a shot to avoid subtractions. Much will depend on how they play over the next three weeks, but the Orioles may not be as motivated to deal as they’d seemed just a few days ago. That’s a credit to their surprisingly strong play over the past month-plus. The team has given themselves a shot to make the front office rethink their deadline outlook, and the next 15 games should be the franchise’s most important in a half-decade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

East Notes: Castillo, Jays, Orioles, Marte, Kiermaier, Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | July 10, 2022 at 11:07pm CDT

Luis Castillo was a Blue Jays trade target last winter, and unsurprisingly, Toronto continues to have interest in Castillo’s services, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Though Castillo missed the first month of the season due to shoulder soreness, he has been in strong form with a 2.92 ERA over 71 innings, even if his Statcast numbers aren’t quite as reflective of top-notch performance. Castillo’s walk rate and hard-contact numbers are only okay, though his strikeout rate (25.3%) is well above league average and he still has elite fastball velocity.

The Reds right-hander is one of the very best players (let alone pitchers) expected to be available as the deadline approaches, making him a natural fit for a Toronto club in sore need of pitching upgrades. Between Hyun Jin Ryu’s Tommy John surgery and underwhelming performances from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, the faulty rotation has been the chief reason for the Jays’ struggles in the last month, which is why Nightengale writes that the Blue Jays “are expected to be the most aggressive team pursuing starting pitching help.” Last summer’s trade for Berrios is an example of how the Toronto front office hasn’t been hesitant to pay a big price for a player they want and need, though the Blue Jays will face plenty of competition for Castillo’s services.

More from both the AL East and NL East…

Also from Nightengale, the Orioles’ surprisingly strong play seemingly hasn’t changed the club’s long-term plans, as Baltimore is “expected to unload” several notable veterans. The list of names includes both impending free agents like Trey Mancini, Rougned Odor, and Jordan Lyles, plus more controllable players like Anthony Santander and All-Star closer Jorge Lopez. It’s safe to assume that the price tag will be a lot higher for Lopez and Santander than the others, but regardless, the O’s likely aren’t going to change course and start thinking about a playoff push.
Starling Marte left Saturday’s game due to a groin injury, and Marte wasn’t in the Mets lineup on Sunday. However, Marte is only day-to-day, as manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that an MRI revealed only minor inflammation and no serious damage. Marte has been a big contributor in his first year in New York, and his first-half performance earned him a slot on the NL All-Star team earlier today. With this groin injury lingering, however, Marte might opt to skip the game to rest up over the break.
Kevin Kiermaier was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier today, marking the second time this month that a nagging hip injury has put the Rays outfielder on the shelf. Kiermaier told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he received a cortisone shot during his first IL stint, but now that the issue has returned, he’ll be visiting a specialist to further explore the injury. “There’s just a lot of unknowns right now with what’s to come….I don’t really know what the future holds, to be quite honest,” Kiermaier said, noting that surgery was a possibility. A major procedure could quite possibly end Kiermaier’s season, and thus maybe his tenure with the Rays altogether, as 2022 is the final guaranteed year of his contract. Kiermaier has spent all 13 of his pro seasons in the Tampa organization, though that tenure has involved several injury absences.
There hasn’t been much public information revealed about the Nationals’ possible sale, but billionaire Michael B. Kim is the first name linked to the list of potential buyers, according to Barry Svrluga and Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post. Kim and another bidding group have met in person with team officials already, and a third group is also slated for in-person meetings later in July. Though there seems to be an increasing feeling that the Lerner family will indeed sell the Nationals, it is still early in the process, since “as many as five or six individuals or groups are expected to meet with club officials.”

Orioles Notes: Mancini, Santander, Lopez

By Anthony Franco | July 1, 2022 at 8:45pm CDT

As has been the case the past few summers, the Orioles enter deadline season among the game’s likeliest sellers. Baltimore has been amidst a full rebuild, and they’re again all but certain to finish at the bottom of the American League East. The O’s have shown signs of progress, graduating top prospect Adley Rutschman to the big leagues and going 14-12 last month, but they’re still set to field offers on a number of players.

Among the likeliest to be dealt are first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini and corner outfielder Anthony Santander. Mancini is set to hit free agency at the end of this season, and as of Spring Training, the club had not engaged his representatives in talks about a potential long-term deal. Barring an out-of-the-blue extension coming together over the next few weeks, the O’s figure to flip Mancini to a contender for this season’s final couple months. (Mancini’s agreement with the O’s to avoid arbitration this spring included a $10MM mutual option for 2023. Given the caliber of season he’s having, he seems unlikely to trigger his end of the pact and forego a possibility at a multi-year free agent deal).

The Mets are among the teams that has checked in on Mancini, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. New York skipper Buck Showalter is plenty familiar with the Notre Dame product, having managed in Baltimore through 2018. That encompassed Mancini’s first two full seasons as a big leaguer, so Showalter had an up-close look at his clubhouse fit and work habits.

Mancini is amidst one of the better seasons of his career. Through 295 plate appearances entering play Friday, the 30-year-old is hitting .280/.356/.421. Mancini has only hit seven home runs, but his 20% strikeout rate is a career-low. While his power output has dipped, particularly relative to his 35-homer 2019 breakout campaign, his hard contact rate is still well above-average.

Pete Alonso is having a great season at first base for the Mets, but the club figures to look into external possibilities at designated hitter. New York has gotten a .230/.311/.383 showing from the DH position, exactly league average production by measure of wRC+. Between Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis, the Mets entered the season with a seeming surplus of bat-first players who could serve as the team’s DH. Smith has instead struggled for a second straight season, hitting .194/.283/.265 in 113 MLB plate appearances and spending some time in Triple-A. Davis has a .243/.333/.345 line over 171 trips to the dish, hitting only two homers in 51 games. Like Mancini, Davis has far better batted ball metrics than his power results would suggest though.

The Mets are one of plenty of teams that either already has or will check in with O’s general manager Mike Elias regarding Mancini. Santander also figures to attract some amount of interest, and Heyman writes in a separate piece that Baltimore is willing to make him available. After a down 2021, he’s hit 14 home runs through this season’s first half. The switch-hitting outfielder owns a .235/.329/.424 line in just under 300 trips to the plate.

For the first time in his career, Santander has an on-base percentage above the league average, a testament to an approach overhaul that has allowed him to work more free passes. After swinging at more than half the pitches he’d seen in every season of his career through 2021, Santander has cut his swing rate to just over 46% this year. With that more patient approach has come a 10.5% walk rate that’s more than double the 5.1% clip he’d posted in his career through last season.

While the O’s are under time pressure to extend or trade Mancini, the club could elect to hold onto Santander if they don’t receive offers to their liking. The 27-year-old entered this season with three-plus years of big league service. He’s controllable through the end of 2024 via arbitration and making a modest $3.2MM this season. As for Baltimore’s other controllable outfielders, Heyman unsurprisingly writes the team would “have to be blown away” to move either Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays. Baltimore can keep each of Mullins and Hays through 2025.

Aside from Mancini and Santander, Baltimore’s next-most likely trade candidate may well be breakout closer Jorge López. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored yesterday, López has transformed from struggling starter to lights-out reliever. Through 37 innings, the right-hander has a microscopic 0.73 ERA. He’s struck out 27.1% of opponents and generated ground-balls at a massive 64% clip, a combination that is sure to lead to plenty of calls from teams looking to add a late-game weapon.

As part of a reader mailbag, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that Baltimore would listen to offers on López, at least as a matter of due diligence. Controllable through 2024 and playing this season on a $1.5MM salary, the 29-year-old could affordably stick around for the next few seasons. It’d no doubt take a significant haul for Elias and his staff to pull the trigger on a deal, but other clubs will try to pry López away before the August 2 deadline.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Trey Mancini

By Mark Polishuk | April 2, 2022 at 7:17pm CDT

The Orioles have avoided an arbitration hearing with Trey Mancini, as the team announced that the two sides have agreed to a contract for the 2022 season. The deal also contains a mutual option for the 2023 campaign. The Athletic’s Dan Connelly (via Twitter) reports that Mancini will earn $7.5MM in 2022, and the mutual option is worth $10MM with a $250K buyout. Mancini is represented by Frontline.

Mancini and the O’s couldn’t reach common ground on a deal prior to the deadline for exchanging arbitration figures, and there was a $625K gap between the two numbers — the Orioles offering $7.375MM and Mancini seeking $8MM. With the buyout money factored in, Mancini is guaranteed $7.75MM in 2022, bringing his total earnings closer to his desired figure. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Mancini for a $7.9MM salary, a nice bump up from the $4.75MM salaries Mancini received in his first two arb-eligible seasons.

Of course, Mancini didn’t receive a raise last winter since he didn’t play in 2020, taking the year off to battle colon cancer. Receiving a clean bill of health heading into last season, Mancini won AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors after hitting .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs over 616 plate appearances in his return to action.

2022 is Mancini’s third and final season of arbitration eligibility, and he is schedule to hit free agency next winter. While the inclusion of the mutual option technically represents something beyond just a flat one-year deal, mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties. In short, the option doesn’t make it any more or less likely that Mancini will still be an Oriole at this time next year, and it remains possible that the rebuilding O’s could still trade Mancini to a contender at some point prior to the trade deadline.

John Means is the only remaining member of Baltimore’s arbitration class that has yet to agree to terms on his 2022 contract. Means submitted a $3.1MM figure while the Orioles submitted a $2.7MM figure, and barring an agreement, the two sides are set to eventually meet in an arbitration hearing.

AL East Notes: Mancini, Means, JDM, Marwin

By Steve Adams | March 25, 2022 at 9:26pm CDT

The Orioles haven’t engaged either first baseman/designated hitter Trey Mancini or lefty John Means about a contract extension, reports Dan Connolly of The Athletic. Mancini is set to become a free agent at season’s end. Means is controlled through 2024.

It’s wholly unsurprising, as the Orioles haven’t had an appetite for any long-term investments during their ongoing rebuild. Even the one-year, $7MM deal they agreed to with right-hander Jordan Lyles prior to the lockout was seen as a surprise, as the O’s hadn’t previously given out more than a $3MM guarantee to any free agent since hiring general manager Mike Elias more than three years ago.

Still, as Connolly explores, the lack of an extension and the seemingly inevitable trade of Mancini — be it in the next couple weeks or this summer — will be a wildly unpopular move both among fans and in the clubhouse. Mancini, the 2021 Comeback Player of the Year, was already a fan favorite in Baltimore before overcoming stage-3 colon cancer and returning to the field with a generally productive 2021 season. He’s also entrenched as a clubhouse leader in Baltimore. The O’s will start spending money at some point once they’re ready to emerge from what’s now a four-year tanking effort, but at the moment they project to just a $64.5MM payroll — $23MM of which is dead money still owed to Chris Davis.

Latest On Angels’ Pursuit Of Right-Handed Hitters, Payroll, Starter Search

By Mark Polishuk | March 24, 2022 at 3:02pm CDT

The Angels were exploring the market for prominent right-handed hitters, checking in with such notable names as Trey Mancini, J.D. Davis, and Luke Voit, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). However, that search may now be limited if not over, as after signing Ryan Tepera, the Angels appear only willing to significantly stretch their payroll for a starting pitcher, rather than a position player.

With Tepera signed for two years and $14MM, Roster Resource projects the Angels for a payroll of roughly $188.3MM, and a luxury tax number of just under $204MM. The latter figure is well under the $230MM luxury tax threshold, and while the Angels have been willing to spend in general under Arte Moreno, it is clear Moreno considers the CBT threshold to be something of a barrier, as the Halos have only paid the tax once during Moreno’s ownership (in 2004, his second year owning the franchise).

In terms of pure dollars, the Angels had roughly $179MM on the books in 2020 before accounting for the prorated salaries of the shortened season, and then around $182MM in payroll last season. So while the current $188.3MM payroll represents some increase, surely some Angels fans won’t be pleased at the idea that this Los Angeles-based team is hesitating about further spending, particularly since the Halos are coming off six losing seasons, and seven seasons without a playoff appearance.

If the club is only willing to spend in one area, focusing on pitching rather than hitting does make sense from a roster-building perspective. In a response to the club’s long-standing pitching woes, the Angels added Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to the rotation mix this year, though both of those hurlers come with some injury concerns. Plus, the Angels have an even greater need for pitching than most other clubs since L.A. is deploying a six-man rotation — Syndergaard, Lorenzen, Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, and Jaime Barria, and look to be the top six choices, with top prospect Reid Detmers in the wings.

The three names cited by Rosenthal also represent somewhat curious fits for the Angels, considering that Ohtani will get most of the DH at-bats and Jared Walsh is penciled into regular first base duty. Voit is a pure first baseman but presumably no longer an option anyway since the Yankees already dealt him to the Padres. Mancini has some outfield experience but is perhaps best suited at first base. The same could be said of Davis, as while he has spent the majority of his big league career as a third baseman and left fielder, his defensive struggles at both positions could ultimately lead him to a future path as a first baseman/DH type.

Walsh is somewhat in the same boat, as he can play a corner outfield spot in a pinch, but isn’t known for his outfield glove. Walsh also struggles against left-handed pitching, so the Angels are looking for a righty bat who can spell Walsh when a southpaw is on the mound. The Los Angeles outfield picture consists of the returning Mike Trout (who could be moving out of center field), highly-touted young prospects Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh, bench option Taylor Ward, and veteran Justin Upton, who has himself been getting some reps as a first baseman. It could be that in lieu of landing a new right-handed bat to share time with Walsh at first base, the Halos might now be prepping Upton for the role if he can adjust to the new position.

Though recent reports suggested that the Mets were looking to keep Davis, rumors have swirled for months about his trade availability, particularly as New York has added several other position players this winter. Davis missed over half of the 2021 season due to injuries, but he has hit a very solid .288/.373/.472 over 893 PA in three seasons with the Mets. Davis will earn $2.76MM this season, and while his addition wouldn’t necessarily be a big financial hit for the Angels, he would likely come at a notable trade cost since Davis is controlled through the 2024 season.

Mancini will be a free agent next winter, and thus would be cheaper on the trade front. Money-wise, Mancini and the Orioles could be going towards an arbitration hearing, as Mancini filed for an $8MM salary in 2022 while the O’s offered $7.375MM. As the Orioles continue to rebuild, they haven’t shown any inclination towards retaining their veterans, Mancini included — The Athletic’s Dan Connolly reports that the O’s haven’t talked to Mancini about a contract extension. After sitting out of the 2020 season to battle cancer, Mancini made a triumphant return to the field last year, winning AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors while hitting .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs over 616 PA for Baltimore.

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