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Wade Davis

Rockies Could Add Multiple Relievers

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DEC. 11: The Rockies’ interest in Davis continues, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (on Twitter). Davis is one of “numerous” possibilities for the Rockies, who are trying to add multiple relievers, per Rosenthal. They were interested in re-signing Pat Neshek before he agreed to join the Phillies on Monday, Rosenthal adds.

DEC. 2: With Greg Holland currently on the open market, the closer-needy Rockies have shown interest in fellow free agent Wade Davis and spoken with the Orioles about Zach Britton, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported earlier this week (Twitter link).

Colorado’s interest in both players isn’t particularly surprising when you consider that Holland and two other key members of its 2017 bullpen – Jake McGee and Pat Neshek – are unsigned. Thanks in part to those three, the Rockies’ bullpen enjoyed a seismic turnaround from 2016 to ’17, thus helping the club to its first playoff season since 2009. With Holland, McGee and Neshek on the market, the Rockies’ relief corps looks decidedly less imposing than it did late in the season, leading general manager Jeff Bridich to acknowledge last month that it’s going to be a key area of focus this winter.

Between Davis and Britton, the former would require a much bigger commitment from a financial standpoint. The 32-year-old Davis was among the game’s best relievers with the Rays, Royals and Cubs from 2012-17 and now stands as arguably the premier bullpen piece in free agency. MLBTR projects a four-year, $60MM payday for the right-handed Davis, who rejected the Cubs’ qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason. The Rockies would only lose their third-highest 2018 draft pick if they were to sign Davis, though, as the team’s a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the competitive balance tax last season.

Britton, a southpaw, is only under control for another year – at a projected $12.2MM – and should be popular in trade rumors this offseason as a result. GM Dan Duquette suggested this week that the Orioles are inclined to keep Britton as they seek a bounce-back year in 2018, but he also noted that “there’s a lot of interest” in the soon-to-be 30-year-old. Britton is coming off a somewhat disappointing season, however, despite a 2.89 ERA and a 72.6 percent groundball rate across 37 1/3 innings. Britton dealt with forearm issues, leading to a drop in velocity, and posted 6.99 K/9 against 4.34 BB/9. He was at 9.94 and 2.42 in those categories during a 2016 campaign that saw him record a jaw-dropping .54 ERA over 67 frames and garner American League Cy Young consideration.

With Baseball America’s 15th-ranked farm system, the Rockies likely have enough in the pipeline to put together a package for Britton if the Orioles are willing to move him. But there are plenty of viable late-game options available in free agency if a trade doesn’t come together. In addition to Davis, the Rockies have thus far shown reported interest in Holland – although, as a qualifying recipient, his departure would net them a high draft pick – as well as Brandon Kintzler.

AL Notes: Hosmer, Royals, Ohtani, Rangers

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The Royals are interested in re-signing first baseman Eric Hosmer, but their pursuit of the longtime franchise cornerstone isn’t going particularly well, Jon Heyman of FanRag suggests (Twitter link). Kansas City’s belief is that “there are much bigger deals elsewhere” for Hosmer, according to Heyman, though he points out that the club was similarly pessimistic before it managed to re-up free agent outfielder Alex Gordon two offseasons ago. Gordon landed a four-year, $72MM pact, which stands as the largest deal in Royals history. Hosmer figures to obliterate that total, with MLBTR projecting a six-year, $132MM payday.

More from the American League:

  • The Angels introduced newly signed Japanese ace/slugger Shohei Ohtani during a Saturday press conference, at which general manager Billy Eppler told reporters that the team “definitely” expects him to continue as a two-way player in the majors (Twitter links via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). Ohtani won’t play the outfield, however, which comes as no surprise considering the Angels already have Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun occupying spots in the grass. As for the Angels’ pitching staff, Eppler noted that the club is “very open minded” to utilizing a six-man rotation. That would seem to benefit not only Ohtani, who pitched once a week in Japan, but the rest of an Angels staff that dealt with a spate of injuries in 2017.
  • Speaking of six-man rotations, the Rangers could be prime candidates to go that route in 2018 if they manage to bring back Yu Darvish, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News observes. The Rangers didn’t enter the offseason planning to spend big money on a single player, but Grant wonders if they’ll pivot from that strategy after failing to reel in Ohtani. As such, he proposes offering a four-year, $80MM guarantee to Darvish and including incentives and a fifth-year vesting option. While that seems light for the longtime Ranger and recent Dodger, Grant posits that both Darvish’s affinity for Texas and the prospect of going with a six-man rotation – something the hurler advocates – could help sway him toward a reunion.
  • In another piece, Grant runs down a Winter Meetings to-do list for the Rangers, arguing that they should look to spend on a top-tier free agent starter (Darvish would qualify), improve their bullpen, attempt to trade Shin-Soo Choo and retain their key prospects. Regarding the bullpen, the Rangers are more inclined to target multiple affordable relievers than sign one of Wade Davis or Greg Holland, per Grant.

Jeff Bridich On Rockies’ Offseason Plans

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Rockies GM Jeff Bridich chatted with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post about the status of his club’s offseason efforts. You’ll certainly want to read the article in its entirety, but we’ll discuss a few pertinent aspects here:

  • Payroll is always a key consideration, of course, and Bridich says the team expects to operate at similar levels as it did in 2017, when it opened with just shy of $130MM on the books. As Saunders notes, the end-of-season number crept higher, though presumably the front office will attempt to keep some powder dry for possible mid-season acquisitions. That still seems to leave quite a bit of room to work with, as the team presently is only committed to about $90MM of salary once anticipated arbitration payouts are factored in. The interview did not touch upon considerations of extensions for existing players, but that could also impact the team’s willingness to take on long-term commitments in free agency. With core players like Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, and Nolan Arenado nearing the open market, it’ll be interesting to see whether there’s an effort to lock them up for the long haul.
  • Bullpen and backstop remain the areas of focus, says Bridich. That’s no surprise given the indications already given to date; indeed, in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook piece on the Rox, we highlighted these two spots and ticked through some of the possibilities. Bridich acknowledges that the team remains engaged with Greg Holland — who served as the closer in 2017 — and confirms that the team has “investigated” top free agent closer Wade Davis. It’s notable that the typically tight-lipped Bridich has made clear that the team is playing at the top of the relief market. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether the club can lure either of those arms to Denver, but it’s also worth noting that Bridich says trade options are on the table.
  • There’s likely a need for greater relief depth, too, and both free agency and trade could offer opportunities. There’s no “magic number” of bullpen pieces that the team seeks to add, says Bridich, but he says “there is a possibility of multiple additions to the pen.”
  • Behind the dish, it isn’t just a matter of chasing a return for Jonathan Lucroy — though Bridich says that’s still an option, as has previously been reported. He tells Saunders that he’s looking at “some potential catchers that are with teams that we have had some interest in over the years,” so it seems trade possibilities are in play. Per the report, Bridich acknowledged at least an awareness of the potential for Yasmani Grandal to be available, though of course it’s open to question whether the division-rival Dodgers would be amenable to sending him to a direct competitors.
  • Bridich discussed the possibility of finding a new bat, suggesting that’s on the list but of lesser urgency. It still seems likely that the club will end up making some kind of addition at first base, but it is far from certain that it’ll be an everyday option since there are certainly some options on hand both there and in the corner outfield. Starting pitching is another consideration, though it too is evidently not seen as a key for the winter. The club has been linked to Jake Arrieta, though it’s possible that was mostly just due diligence.
  • Saunders writes that the health of David Dahl is an important consideration to the corner mix. Dahl, who is still just 23 years of age, showed tons of promise in his debut in 2016, when he turned in 237 plate appearances of .315/.389/.500 hitting. But he missed all of last season and remains a bit of a wild card at this point. He is only just readying to begin swinging, though that’ll happen soon and could begin to give the team an idea of just how much it can count on him in 2018. Bridich did say the team “really [doesn’t] know” whether Dahl’s back problems will linger for the long term, though he adds that “things are looking good now.”

Twins Have Explored Trades For Gerrit Cole, Jake Odorizzi

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The Twins are known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades and have already been linked to top free agents Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, but they’re also poking around the trade market. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Minnesota has spoken to the Pirates about Gerrit Cole and also engaged the Rays in discussions on Jake Odorizzi (Twitter links). Both righties come with two remaining years of team control.

It’s not at all clear that the Pirates intend to aggressively shop Cole this offseason, though as a low-payroll club Pittsburgh always has to willing to at least entertain offers for its top talents. Cole certainly falls into that category, though he had somewhat of a down season in 2017. The former No. 1 overall pick logged 203 innings with the Bucs, marking his second career 200-inning campaign, but he also posted a career-worst 4.26 ERA. That was largely attributable to to a massive spike in his homer-to-flyball ratio (15.9 percent), which led to a career-worst 1.37 HR/9 mark.

However, Cole’s 2017 season also came with cause for optimism. The 27-year-old saw both his strikeout and walk rates bounce back from 2016, as he averaged 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 while maintaining a solid ground-ball rate (45.8 percent) and averaging 96 mph on his fastball. Cole’s average exit velocity of 85.4 mph ranked in the top quarter of the league (100th out of 438 pitchers, min. 100 batted-ball events). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs Cole for a $7.5MM salary next season.

As for Odorizzi, he’ll turn 28 in March and recently wrapped a season in which he tossed 143 1/3 innings with a 4.14 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a more troubling 1.88 HR/9. Odorizzi has seen his walk and home-run rates increase each year since 2015. He’s averaged 30 starts per year in the past four seasons but has also averaged just 167 innings per year in that time. He’s projected to earn 6.5MM next year. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted in previewing the Rays’ offseason, Tampa Bay has a pretty notable payroll crunch, which could lead to plenty of Odorizzi chatter this season given his projected salary and relatively limited club control.

Of course, the Twins have one of the largest figures that any team can offer Japanese star Shohei Ohtani ($3.245MM), and Berardino tweets that the team is indeed preparing its pitch for the potential ace. He also notes that Minnesota is focusing more on the rotation than the bullpen. Top-tier names like Wade Davis and Greg Holland aren’t likely to be on the Twins’ radar, he notes, though second-tier options will be in play as the offseason wears on.

All 9 Recipients Reject Qualifying Offer

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THURSDAY: Officially, all nine players have rejected their qualifying offers and become free agents, the MLBPA has announced (h/t Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, on Twitter).

MONDAY: All nine of the free agents that received a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer will reject that offer in favor of free agency, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports writes. Each of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland and Carlos Santana will turn down that one-year opportunity in search of a multi-year pact in free agency.

In doing so, that group of nine will also subject themselves to draft-pick compensation and position their former clubs to recoup some value in next year’s amateur draft should they sign elsewhere. Last offseason’s new collective bargaining agreement altered the specifics of that compensation, tying the draft picks received and surrendered largely to the luxury tax threshold, revenue sharing and the size of the contract signed by the free agent in question.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained which draft picks each of the six teams that issued a qualifying offer would receive, should their free agents sign elsewhere, as well as which picks all 30 teams would be required to surrender if they are to sign a qualified free agent. Prior to that, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk provided a more comprehensive and in-depth overview of the new QO system, for those that are unfamiliar or would like a refresher on the finer details.

It’s been reported for quite some time that Kansas City will make a strong effort to retain Hosmer. Heyman added over the weekend that the Royals will also push to keep Moustakas but feel that Cain is almost certain to land elsewhere on the open market. The Rockies are known to have interest in re-upping with Holland on a multi-year deal, and Heyman notes within today’s column that the Rays “understand [Cobb] is out of their reach financially” and will sign elsewhere. He also adds that Davis seems to be likelier than Arrieta to return to Chicago.

It’s unlikely that there will be any formal announcements just yet. Among the changes to the QO system under the 2017-21 CBA was that QO recipients would have 10 days, rather than seven, to determine whether to accept or reject the offer. The deadline to issue QOs was last Monday, so the recipients still technically have until this coming Thursday to formally declare their intention. But, barring a last-minute freak injury it seems that each of the nine will go the widely expected route and enter free agency in search of the most substantial contracts in their respective careers.

NL Central Rumors: Brewers, Iglesias, Reds, Cubs, Davis, Lackey

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The Brewers are not ruling out significant additions on the pitching market, it seems. When asked yesterday about the possibility of landing a premium-cost starter, GM David Stearns said that “it makes sense to cast a wide net,” as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. That guarded phrasing hardly promises a major move, but it keeps things open, and that’s what Stearns says the focus is right now. He explained: “Generally, at this stage of the offseason, you try to determine what might be realistic, what might make sense, and then you plot your offseason strategy from there.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously highlighted Milwaukee as a potential pursuer of top pitchers this winter.

Here’s the latest from the NL Central:

  • At this stage, at least, reports of interest in Reds closer Raisel Iglesias probably ought to be taken with a grain of salt — not because there isn’t much interest, but because it’s so widespread. Per president of baseball operations Dick Williams, “the fair assumption would be that two-thirds of the teams would have interest without having them have to call,” as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. While the club surely won’t be rash in dealing Iglesias, Williams does note that the team isn’t “holding on to him out of fear of what the rest of the bullpen would do.” At the same time, other clubs are being given the sense that Cincinnati intends to keep Iglesias, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, so it seems likely that it’ll take a significant offer to gain traction in talks.
  • The Reds do recognize they are well-stocked in the outfield, though Williams suggests it’s more depth than a true “surplus” from which to trade. That appears to be a fair take; while Cincinnati could end up with a bit of a playing-time logjam if things break right, that’s also far from a given. Generally, the team’s top baseball decision-maker says to expect “an opportunistic approach” to the offseason — which may also require some patience from fans.
  • Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago provides an interesting overview of the dynamics that will shape the Cubs’ efforts this offseason. GM Jed Hoyer tells Mooney that the team is approaching trade talks both with an open mind and with a loyalty to the players they’ve developed into the core of a winning club. That said, Hoyer stressed that the front office’s “No. 1 loyalty” is to Cubs fans and positioning the team to win another World Series. That, Hoyer says, could put the team into an unenviable position of having to consider trades of young players they value highly. “Certainly, I’d love to have an offseason where we didn’t have to do anything like that,” says Hoyer. “But in order to get better and make improvements in certain areas, we might.
  • Meanwhile, Mooney looks at the team’s chances of re-signing closer Wade Davis as a free agent. Chicago viewed Aroldis Chapman purely as a rental when they acquired him in 2016 and let him walk as a free agent accordingly, Mooney writes, but they view Davis in a different light. President of baseball ops Theo Epstein says the Cubs “think the world” of Davis and will make an effort to bring back a player they feel is important both on and off the field. As Mooney points out, a number of big-market clubs already have high-priced closers, which could take some of them out of the running for Davis.
  • Hoyer confirmed to reporters that right-hander John Lackey has indeed signaled that he aims to pitch once again in 2018 (Twitter link via ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers). Re-signing Lackey is “certainly” something the Cubs are going to talk about, per Hoyer. It remains to be seen how aggressively Chicago will pursue Lackey coming off a generally disappointing season in which he yielded an NL-high 36 homers. But, the Cubs stand to potentially lose both Lackey and Jake Arrieta this winter, so they’ll assuredly be in the market for multiple arms.

Twins Looking At Top-Tier Free Agent Pitchers

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The Twins are taking an aggressive stance to open free agency, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. It seems the Minnesota organization is slated to engage at the top echelon of the pitching market.

We’ve heard chatter previously about the Twins investing in an arm, but this news seemingly takes the interest to another level. Per Heyman, the front office is at least “looking at” top free-agent hurlers Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, with a “slightly higher evaluation” of the former. Not only that, but the club is said to be “investigating” the best relievers available, including Wade Davis and Greg Holland.

Just how much cash the Twins will pour into the open market remains an open question. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, though, the organization not only seems ready to contend in a vulnerable AL Central, but has plenty of open future payroll space. That makes it plausible, albeit hardly certain, to imagine the Twins playing in a segment of free agency that is normally off limits.

It’s not difficult to see why these particular pitchers would be of interest. Minnesota is clearly in need of at least one more quality starter and has an obvious opening at the back of the bullpen. As ever, though, getting the players with the greatest pedigree could mean taking uncomfortable amounts of financial risk.

In this case, the expectation remains that Darvish and Arrieta will receive robust interest. MLBTR’s top 50 list features both among the top four players available, with $100MM or more in likely earnings. Meanwhile, Davis and Holland both warranted inclusion at the back of the top ten, with MLBTR predicting four-year deals for each (at $60MM and $50MM, respectively).

There’s always some possibility that markets won’t develop as anticipated, of course. And patience can pay off in free agency. It’ll be interesting to see, then, whether the Twins go chasing these top hurlers out of the gates or instead take a somewhat more opportunistic approach. The club does have interest in second-tier starters and relievers, Heyman notes. It seems possible that such hurlers could be targeted for value early or that the Twins could hold back and see if a particularly enticing opportunity arises over the course of the winter.

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter.  Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis.  The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn.  Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient.  If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round.  For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B.  MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians.  However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation.  The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round.  If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians.  Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency.  If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round.  If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies.  Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76.  The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

9 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.4MM. Now that the dust has settled, we know that nine players will weigh those decisions for the next ten days.

That falls on the lower end of the spectrum, matching the prior low from 2012 (the first season that the QO system was in operation). On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. Last year, after all, there were only ten recipients. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.

New rules went into effect this winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how it’ll work this time around. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.

Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):

Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Zack Cozart of the Reds (post), Andrew Cashner of the Rangers (post), and Logan Morrison of the Rays (post) were among the closest calls that went against the offer.

Qualifying Offer Rumors: Sunday

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The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.

While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. Here’s some QO-related chatter that’s been floating around on Sunday.

  • The Rays are likely to issue a qualifying offer to right-handed starter Alex Cobb, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Cobb pitched to a 3.66 ERA with a typically strong 47.8% ground ball rate across 179 1/3 innings in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery. The 30-year-old started 29 games in 2017. The MLBTR team predicts a four-year, $48MM contract for him.
  • Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago opines that the Cubs will issue a QO to both Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis (something that has long seemed likely). He further speculates that the (unlikely) event of Davis accepting the offer would represent an ideal scenario for the Cubs, who don’t have an obvious replacement for him in the closer role aside from perhaps Carl Edwards Jr., who struggled with command in the playoffs and has only 107 innings of major league experience. Both Arrieta and Davis rank among MLBTR’s top ten free agents.
  • The Rangers are not expected to extend a QO to right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter. He notes that the Rangers were considering the move, but that certainly would have been surprising given Cashner’s injury history and poor peripherals. Though he managed a 3.40 ERA across 166 2/3 innings in 2017, Cashner struck out an alarmingly low 4.64 batters per nine innings. He seemingly benefitted from some BABIP- and homer/fly ball rate-related luck as evidenced by his 5.30 xFIP. The MLBTR team predicted a 2-year, $20MM contract for Cashner, ranking him as the 27th-best free agent available.
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