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Padres Reportedly Close To Signing Yuki Matsui

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The Padres are close to signing a deal with free agent left-hander Yuki Matsui, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Earlier, Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X links) reported that the Friars had offered Matsui a contract and also relayed a Japanese-language report from Sankei Sports. The Google translation of that report says that the southpaw has already undergone a medical check, though it seems nothing is official quite yet. Morosi relays that it will be a multi-year deal, though the financial are not yet known at this time.

Matsui, 28, is a left-handed reliever that has 10 years of experience in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, having debuted back in 2014. He has an earned run average of 2.40 in his 501 career games, tossing 659 2/3 innings. He has 236 saves in that time, including at least 24 in each of the past three campaigns. He’s coming off a strong 2023 season as well, with a tiny ERA of 1.57 while recording 39 saves. He struck out 32.4% of batters faced this year while walking just 5.9%.

In addition to his excellent results, Matsui is notable for his size, listed at just 5’8″ and 167 pounds. That unusual frame didn’t stop MLB clubs from having interest, with the Cardinals having recently hosted Matsui in St. Louis, though the Padres will apparently be the one to seal the deal.

Beyond his skills, Matsui surely intrigued clubs due to the fact that he reached proper free agency by reaching nine years of service time. Unlike some other pitchers coming over from Japan, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Matsui isn’t currently connected to any NPB club. That means the MLB club that signs him won’t be subject to a posting fee on top of the contract itself.

Matsui has consistently featured on MLBTR’s NPB Players to Watch series this year, with Dai Takegami Podziewski reporting on Matsui’s four-pitch mix, featuring a fastball, splitter, slider and curveball. The southpaw reportedly had some trouble adapting to the ball in the World Baseball Classic, which is closer to the one used in MLB. There’s always some uncertainty with foreign players since they are unproven in North America, and while Matsui’s size and issues with the WBC ball perhaps add to that, clubs are often intrigued by the possibility of unearthing a hidden gem.

That’s especially true of the Padres, for whom the budget has been a focus all year. Due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the club’s broadcast rights reverted to MLB during the year. It was later reported that the Friars took out a loan to cover expenses and all recent reporting has pointed to a drop in payroll relative to recent years, likely resulting in them staying under the competitive balance tax in 2024.

Their offseason moves to this point have mostly been about clearing out payroll space. The Padres sent outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for five players, then sent lefty Ray Kerr to Atlanta as a means to get some of Matt Carpenter’s contract off the books.

Roster Resource currently pegs the club CBT number at $205MM for next year, with the base threshold to be $237MM. That gives the club a bit of room to work with but they still have some things to do. They likely want to find two outfielders to replace Soto and Grisham while also perhaps looking for a designated hitter and some more starting pitching.

But the bullpen is also an issue, with Josh Hader, Nick Martinez, Luis García and Tim Hill now free agents. That means the club will have work to do just to get back to 2023 levels, when their relievers posted a collective ERA of 3.80, the tenth-best mark in the league.

No one is going to expect Matsui to replace Hader as one of the best relievers in the league, but he can certainly bolster the club’s southpaw relief mix, which currently consists of Tom Cosgrove and Adrián Morejón. The former had a solid season in 2023 but still has less than a year of major league experience, while the latter has had ongoing injury issues and is coming off a poor showing this year. Perhaps this is the first of many moves as the Padres pivot from subtracting salary to adding it, looking to fill out the roster for 2024.

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Cody Bellinger Reportedly Seeking $200MM Or More In Free Agency

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With superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani now off the board after signing on with the Dodgers, the market has seemingly begun to come into focus for center fielder Cody Bellinger, the clear #2 position player on the free agent market this offseason. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Bellinger and agent Scott Boras are seeking “$200MM plus” in contract talks this winter.

That Bellinger is in position to even approach that figure is nothing short of incredible given the brutal fashion his time in LA came to an end. The outfielder dealt with shoulder, rib, and leg injuries throughout the 2021 season and struggled badly when he managed to take the field that season, posting an abysmal .165/.240/.302 slash line across 350 trips to the plate that season. While he was able to avoid the injured list in 2022, the diminished results lingered as he slashed just .210/.265/.389, prompting the Dodgers to non-tender him last offseason.

Not long after being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with the Cubs and entered the 2023 campaign hoping to rebuild his value ahead of another trip to the open market after the season. He certainly succeeded in that effort, slashing .307/.356/.525 while earning a top ten finish in NL MVP voting and the second Silver Slugger award of his career. While this new-look Bellinger came with potential red flags regarding his quality of contact in 2023, MLBTR nonetheless projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, the second-highest projected guarantee after Ohtani.

Since then, many of Bellinger’s potential suitors on the free agent market have gone in other directions. The Yankees landed a trio of left-handed hitting outfielders in Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo on the trade market, seemingly leaving no room for Bellinger on their roster. Meanwhile, the Giants recently landed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM contract. While it’s certainly feasible that San Francisco could have the resources available to land Bellinger as well, between the club’s existing outfield logjam and need for pitching, it seems more likely that the club would pursue top arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Shota Imanaga than double up on talent in center field with a Bellinger signing.

That’s not to say that Bellinger’s market is completely devoid of suitors, of course. The Blue Jays haven’t been shy about their pursuit of a top-of-the-market lefty slugger this offseason, and Bellinger is the clear best player available to fill that niche with both Ohtani and Soto now off the board. Given that, it’s no surprise that Heyman suggests that Toronto is “expected to be a player” for Bellinger this offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, suggesting that the Blue Jays could be a “favorite” for the 28-year-old’s services this winter. Looking beyond Toronto, both Heyman and Nightengale also indicate that the incumbent Cubs could be a factor in Bellinger’s market this offseason while Nightengale also suggests the Padres as a potential suitor.

Any interest from Chicago or San Diego seemingly comes with caveats, however. The Padres are reportedly facing severe financial constrains and hope to duck under the luxury tax in 2024, and committing $200MM or more to Bellinger would eat away most of the savings the club procured by dealing Soto and Grisham to the Bronx earlier this month. Meanwhile, reports from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic indicate that the Cubs could prefer to wait out the market and see if Bellinger “falls” to them on a more palatable deal than the outfielder’s current price tag. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have no such apparent financial restraints or reservations. Of course, it’s possible that another team in need of outfield help such as the Mariners could jump into the fray and change the outlook of Bellinger’s market as the offseason continues.

Padres “Prefer” To Stay Under Luxury Tax In 2024, Could Reduce Payroll Below $200MM

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The Padres have long been expected to pare down payroll significantly this offseason, with early signals indicating a target payroll of no more than $200MM for the 2024 season as they look to get back into compliance with the league’s debt service rules. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the club may plan to cut payroll even more drastically, suggesting that the club’s final payroll next season could come in “more than a little lower” than that aforementioned $200MM figure as club officials reportedly “prefer” to stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2024. Importantly, Lin notes that the club would be willing to go “slightly” over the luxury tax if the right opportunity were to present itself later this winter, though it’s unclear what sort of opportunity would be necessary to convince San Diego to push their payroll over the threshold.

While RosterResource projects the Padres for a payroll of just over $152MM as things stand, it projects a significantly larger $205MM payroll for luxury tax purposes. That would leave the club with just under $32MM of budget space remaining for luxury tax purposes if they intend to remain below the first luxury tax threshold, which will sit at $237MM in 2024. That roughly $30MM of wiggle room for luxury tax purposes tracks with Lin’s suggestion that a payroll of around $180MM could allow the Padres to duck below the threshold next year.

Lin goes on to report that the club’s pursuit of outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who signed with the Giants earlier this week on a six-year, $113MM deal, was impacted by the club’s budget constraints. While Lin notes that San Diego’s offer to Lee was reportedly considered “competitive” but nonetheless was not especially close to the figure offered by San Francisco. Lee’s contract with the Giants sports an average annual value of roughly $18.8MM, meaning landing the outfielder would have required more the remaining space the Padres have available to them below the luxury tax threshold.

As Lin notes, the Padres themselves demonstrated as recently as last offseason that there are ways to creatively structure a deal to deflate its AAV. Right-handers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez, for example, commanded salaries of $7.5MM and $10MM respectively in 2023 despite carrying AAVs of just $6.5MM and $8.7MM for luxury tax purposes thanks to the complex structures of their contracts. It’s possible that similar deals could allow the Padres additional room to maneuver this offseason as they look to rebuild their starting outfield after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to New York as well as a pitching staff that lost Wacha, Martinez, Seth Lugo, Blake Snell, and Josh Hader to free agency last month.

It’s possible some of the club’s holes can be filled internally, with Lin noting that the Padres see the likes of Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee and Robby Snelling, among others, as prospects who could impact the big league club in 2024. Even in San Diego manages to successfully embrace a youth movement, however, it’s hard to imagine the club being able to fill two outfield spots, one rotation spot, and restock the bullpen without making several external additions.

With so many holes on the roster and relatively little wiggle room in the club’s budget for 2024, Lin notes that infielders Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim are both potential trade candidates for the Padres. Kim would surely be an attractive trade candidate if available on the heels of a strong season that saw him slash .260/.351/.398 while playing superb defense all around the infield, and a deal would allow the Padres to shed his $8MM salary in 2024 while potentially bringing back major league ready talent in return.

Cronenworth, on the other hand, would be far more difficult to deal, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored earlier this week. The 29-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career in 2023 and is owed a whopping $80MM over the next seven seasons, making him a less-than-palatable trade target for the majority of clubs. While Cronenworth’s salary is just over $7MM for the 2024 campaign, his contract’s AAV of around $11.5MM counts as a more significant hit against the luxury tax. While Cronenworth is far from the only player locked up long-term the Padres could consider trying to move, others would like present even more significant obstacles.

Right-handers Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove figure to anchor the club’s rotation next season, and dealing either veteran arm would be counterproductive for a club hoping to bolster its rotation depth. It’s a similar story for Robert Suarez in the bullpen. Meanwhile, the likes of Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are due hundreds of millions through at least the 2033 season, making them all far more complicated to move for fair value than Soto, who will be a free agent next season, was. Making a trade for any of the aforementioned names even more complicated is that each player is coming off a season that either saw them produce below their recent career levels, struggle with injury, or both. With plenty of holes to fill and few realistic options for shedding salary available, the Padres face a major uphill battle as they look to improve upon their 82-80 season in 2023 that saw them just miss out on playoff contention.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/16/23

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Catching up on some minor league moves from around baseball…

  • The Padres signed infielder Nate Mondou to a minor league deal last week, according to Mondou’s MLB.com profile page.  The 28-year-old’s big league resume consists of a single game and three plate appearances with the Athletics in 2022, and the rest of his seven-year pro career has been spent in the minors.  Mondou has hit .278/.375/.433 over 1275 PA at the Triple-A level with the top affiliates of the A’s and White Sox, while playing mostly second base, a good deal of time at both corner infield spots, and a handful of games as a shortstop and left fielder.
  • The Giants re-signed catcher Jakson Reetz to a minor league contract last week, as per Reetz’s MLB.com profile page.  A third-round pick for the Nationals in the 2014 draft, Reetz made his Major League debut by appearing in two games for Washington in 2021, and he has since been playing in the minors with the Brewers, Royals, and Giants.  Reetz hit .243/.342/.500 with 17 home runs over 322 combined PA with the Giants’ and Royals’ Triple-A clubs in 2023, and while it wasn’t enough to get him another look in the majors, the Giants saw enough to bring him back into the fold as a depth option.

Padres, Tommy Nance Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have agreed to a minor league contract with reliever Tommy Nance, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. The right-hander had reached minor league free agency after being outrighted by the Marlins at the beginning of the offseason.

Nance, 32, lost the bulk of the 2023 season to shoulder and oblique injuries. He pitched 17 innings over four minor league levels but didn’t make an MLB appearance for the Fish this year. Nance had seen a fair amount of action out of the Miami relief corps the previous season. He logged 43 2/3 innings across 35 appearances in 2022, posting a 4.33 ERA while striking out an impressive 29.1% of batters faced.

A Long Beach native and Santa Clara product, Nance has 72 1/3 MLB innings under his belt. He debuted with the Cubs in 2021 five years after going undrafted. The Marlins claimed him off waivers in Spring Training the following season. He owns a 5.47 ERA at the highest level, although he’s shown the potential to pick up a fair amount of whiffs and ground balls.

San Diego has a handful of relief jobs up for grabs after each of Josh Hader, Nick Martinez and Luis García reached free agency. The Padres are likely to add one or two relievers who’ll be locked into the season-opening mix, but they’ll also take a few fliers of this nature to bring in non-roster competition.

Braves Plan To Trade Matt Carpenter

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The Braves are planning to trade DH Matt Carpenter, report David O’Brien and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (X link). Atlanta acquired the left-handed hitter this evening in a salary-motivated swap with the Padres.

San Diego’s primary goal was offloading a portion of Carpenter’s $5.5MM salary. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reported that the Padres were kicking in $1.5MM to facilitate the trade. The Braves took on $4MM in salary and luxury tax obligations. The Friars saved $4MM in cash and $4.5MM against the competitive balance tax.

Carpenter’s CBT number was marginally higher for the Padres than it is for Atlanta. His two-year, $12MM deal with San Diego was front loaded, as he collected $6.5MM this year. That came with a $6MM tax hit as the contract’s average annual value, but a traded player’s CBT calculation for an acquiring team is recalculated based on how much they’re still owed at the time of the trade — in this case, $5.5MM for one year.

The point of the trade for Atlanta was to essentially “purchase” the rights to hard-throwing depth reliever Ray Kerr, whom San Diego included in the deal. As a second-year luxury tax payor in the second tier of penalization, the Braves are paying a 42% tax on the $4MM of Carpenter’s salary they assumed. The trade will cost them around $5.68MM altogether. Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number sits around $267MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The third tier of penalization kicks in at $277MM.

Atlanta’s front office has somewhat curiously taken on a handful of underwater contracts as a means of adding talent at the bottom half of the roster. They almost immediately traded Marco Gonzales and Evan White after bringing them in alongside Jarred Kelenic. Catcher Max Stassi, whose contract was included in the David Fletcher trade, was promptly flipped to the White Sox. Carpenter appears next in line.

As was the case with Gonzales and Stassi, the Braves might have to pay Carpenter’s salary all the way or near the league minimum to find a taker. The veteran is coming off a .176/.322/.319 showing.

Braves Acquire Matt Carpenter, Ray Kerr From Padres

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7:12pm: San Diego is including $1.5MM in cash, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (on X).

6:48pm: The Padres and Braves have agreed to a trade, per announcements from both clubs. Designated hitter Matt Carpenter, left-hander Ray Kerr and cash considerations are heading to Atlanta in exchange for minor league outfielder Drew Campbell.

Carpenter, 38, had a multi-year run of success with the Cardinals but his production dipped towards the end of the previous decade, to the point where he hit just .169/.305/.275  in 2021. He made a concerted effort to revamp his swing before 2022 and it seemed to work. He hit an astounding .305/.412/.727 for the Yankees in 2022, but in just 47 games before he fouled a ball off his foot and had his season ended by a fracture.

The Padres decided to bank on that bounceback, signing him to a two-year deal going into 2023. That guaranteed $12MM and allowed him to opt out after the first season.  He couldn’t keep that magic run with the Yankees going, as his time as a Padre resulted in a line of just .176/.322/.319. As a player who saw all of his time at either designated hitter or first base, the complete lack of offensive productivity put Carpenter on the fringe of the roster.

San Diego kept him on the roster all season. Carpenter made the easy decision to exercise his $5.5MM player option. That’s not an outrageous sum but clearly beyond what San Diego wanted to devote to a player on the bubble. The Friars have spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. It’s unclear how much of the Carpenter deal for which the Padres remain responsible after accounting for the cash considerations, but they’ll offload some portion of the money in exchange for sending Kerr to Atlanta.

A 29-year-old reliever, Kerr was acquired from Seattle as part of the Adam Frazier deal over the 2021-22 offseason. The 6’3″ southpaw has pitched in 29 MLB games over the past two seasons, most of which came this year. Kerr owns a 5.06 ERA in 32 innings, but he has shown a promising arsenal. He has punched out an above-average 28.1% of batters faced at the highest level. Kerr fanned 29% of opponents while pitching to a stellar 2.25 ERA in 36 Triple-A frames last season.

Kerr has atypical velocity for a left-hander. He averaged 96 MPH on his heater and a solid 82.5 MPH on a curveball in his MLB time this year. That resulted in an excellent 14.7% swinging strike percentage. He has never consistently harnessed that power stuff, however. Kerr walked nearly 10% of opponents in the majors and over 11% of batters faced in Triple-A. Over parts of six minor league seasons, he owns an 11.6% walk percentage.

With less than one year of major league service, Kerr is at least two years away from arbitration. He still has a minor league option remaining, so the Braves can keep him at Triple-A Gwinnett for another season. Kerr slots in behind A.J. Minter, recent trade pickup Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek and Dylan Lee on the lefty relief depth chart.

Atlanta has shown a willingness to take on part or all of other teams’ undesirable contracts to acquire players of interest. They took on money in the Marco Gonzales and Evan White deals to bring in Jarred Kelenic from Seattle. They subsequently offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates and flipped White to the Angels as part of a deal that brought in David Fletcher and the Max Stassi contract, which they subsequently paid down to deal the catcher to the White Sox.

It’s fair to wonder if they’ll look to move Carpenter as well. For now, he projects as a left-handed bench bat. Atlanta is in the the second tier of luxury penalization and will be second-time payors next year. They’ll therefore pay a 42% tax on whatever portion of the Carpenter contract they’re assuming.

San Diego also adds the 26-year-old Campbell. He was a 23rd round pick in 2019 out of Louisville. A left-handed hitter, Campbell posted a modest .254/.307/.404 slash in 300 plate appearances as a 25-year-old in Double-A. He can play all three outfield spots but spent more time in a corner this year. After going unselected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s likely to start the season in Triple-A.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Challenge Of Trading Jake Cronenworth

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After the Scott Barlow and Juan Soto/Trent Grisham trades, Roster Resource projects the Padres payroll for the 2024 season in the $154MM range. They’re at roughly $209MM in luxury tax commitments, about $28MM shy of next year’s lowest threshold.

San Diego now has some space to add, but their series of free agent losses and trade departures have created a number of holes. With a need for at least one starting pitcher, a back-end reliever and likely multiple outfielders, the front office could continue looking for ways to create spending room. One path the front office is seemingly pursuing: moving some of the money owed to Jake Cronenworth.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted last week that Cronenworth had emerged as a trade candidate. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote over the weekend the Padres were open to discussions on the fifth-year infielder. That’s to be expected, as Cronenworth is coming off the worst season of his career.

That’s not ideal for a player entering the first season of a seven-year contract. Last spring, San Diego signed Cronenworth to an $80MM extension covering the 2024-30 campaigns. It was an odd decision at the time, as the Padres already had arbitration control through his age-32 season. It looks worse in hindsight after his 2023 performance.

Cronenworth hit .229/.312/.378 with 10 home runs through 522 plate appearances. He had the lowest mark of his career in all three slash stats. That’d be more tolerable at his natural second base position, but the Friars also kicked him primarily to first base after signing Xander Bogaerts to keep Ha-Seong Kim at the keystone. Cronenworth’s hit-over-power approach isn’t a great fit at first base, where most teams receive far more offensive productivity. Among 25 primary first baseman to reach 500 plate appearances, Cronenworth ranked 23rd in both on-base percentage and slugging. His season finished in late August when he fractured his right wrist.

The Padres certainly expect better than that in 2024. Going into last season, the Michigan product had a much superior .256/.338/.431 career batting line. Yet he has also trended downwards offensively in each season since his rookie year. With Kim and Bogaerts likely to again occupy the middle infield, Cronenworth isn’t a great fit for the San Diego roster. Offloading a portion of his contract and bringing in a more traditional slugging first baseman could mollify some of their problems getting production from the bottom half of the lineup.

San Diego wouldn’t find a taker for the entire contract. Aside from a $2MM signing bonus, Cronenworth’s extension hasn’t yet kicked in. Were he a free agent this offseason, he would not receive seven years or $78MM.

For reference, Jeimer Candelario was on the open market this winter. He’s a few weeks older than Cronenworth, has nearly identical offensive production over the past four seasons, and is coming off a much better ’23 campaign (.251/.336/.471 with 22 homers). Candelario signed a three-year pact that guaranteed $45MM. Even with Cronenworth having a slight defensive edge based on his ability to play an above-average second base, he likely wouldn’t have beaten Candelario money.

The Padres owe Cronenworth a $7MM salary for next season, followed by $11MM in 2025. He’s due $12MM annually between 2026-30, covering his age 32-36 campaigns. If the Friars were simply prioritizing shedding next year’s money, they’d likely find a trade partner. Paying $7MM for Cronenworth in ’24 is good value, particularly if a team can move him back to second base. The Padres would have to agree to kicking in some money beyond the next season or two in order to reduce the longer-term downside for an acquiring team.

Whit Merrifield and Tim Anderson are the top open market options. Neither is demonstrably better than Cronenworth. There are other trade possibilities (e.g. Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India) but teams looking for second base help could have to turn to the trade market.

The Royals project to turn the position back to Michael Massey, who hit .229/.274/.381 a season ago. K.C. has a decent amount of long-term payroll room and generally prefers hit-over-power, athletic players who align with their spacious home park. The Red Sox had a revolving door at second base last season, receiving a .240/.286/.376 line overall. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow acknowledged last week the Sox were likely to trade for a second baseman, although he called a right-handed hitter an ideal pickup.

Seattle could look to improve upon Josh Rojas. Cronenworth would align with their goal of adding more contact if they view him as reasonable buy-low target. The Angels and Blue Jays may add an infielder, although their respective in-house options might be productive enough they don’t see Cronenworth as a clear upgrade.

Teams like the Brewers (Brice Turang), Rockies (Brendan Rodgers) and Nationals (Luis García) have young players they’ll probably try to give one more opportunity. The White Sox have targeted stopgap types like Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong. The Pirates seem unlikely to take on notable money on a seven-year commitment. The Tigers have short-term uncertainty at second base but presumably won’t want to block prospects like Colt Keith and Jace Jung.

In the absence of many clear trade partners, the Padres front office will have to determine how motivated they are to shed a portion of the contract. While selling low on Cronenworth less than 12 months after extending him isn’t ideal, the Soto trade made clear they’re open to ways to reshape the roster as they try to remain competitive while cutting spending.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Deferred Money

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

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