Padres Prioritizing Right-Handed Bullpen Help
The Padres are known to have strong interest in White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet as they seek upgrades in the rotation, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that a “shutdown right-handed reliever” is San Diego’s “top” priority at the moment.
A right-handed reliever makes sense for the Padres, whose contingent of late-game arms skews somewhat left-handed. Beyond closer Robert Suarez, the Friars’ top right-handed arms are Jeremiah Estrada and Enyel De Los Santos. Estrada has been sensational this season, logging 21 innings of 0.86 ERA ball with an enormous 43.2% strikeout rate against an 8.6% walk rate. De Los Santos sports a solid-looking 3.54 earned run average, but he’s surrendered a whopping eight home runs in just 28 innings of work (2.57 HR/9). He has six holds but generally hasn’t been the preferred option in leverage spots — hardly all that surprising given his home run woes.
Other right-handed options in manager Mike Shildt’s bullpen include Rule 5 pick Stephen Kolek and long reliever Jhony Brito. Kolek has been knocked around for an ERA just shy of 6.00 while sporadically working into low-leverage spots as the Padres try to navigate the season with him on the big league roster. Brito has been used primarily for long relief and has pitched well in that role. He’s unlikely to move into shorter, higher-leverage stints.
Estrada and southpaw Yuki Matsui have been the primary options in setup situations for Suarez. But Estrada pitched only 39 1/3 innings last season and has no track record of big league success aside from this year’s out-of-the-blue breakout. He’s also been more effective against lefties than righties, though neither has been able to mount much in the way of offense against him.
San Diego’s reported interest in Crochet and their early-season trade activity could be instructive when looking to potential bullpen targets. Beyond the Crochet’s general excellence, he’s also being paid just an $800K salary this season. In the Padres’ acquisition of Luis Arraez, they not only convinced the Marlins to pay down the remainder of Arraez’s salary to league minimum but also to take back the two-year, $4.5MM contract of reliever Woo-Suk Go. It’s logical to expect they’ll have particular interest in lower-salary relievers (or in paying a heavier prospect premium to convince a trade partner to pay down salary).
San Diego is just about $12MM shy of the luxury-tax threshold, per RosterResource, with a bottom-line payroll of $166MM. They’ve been unafraid to spend beyond their means in the past, but the Padres also slashed payroll by more than $80MM this past offseason. It seems unlikely they’d take back a reliever on a notable contract unless said reliever’s current team included cash to help facilitate the swap.
Oakland’s Mason Miller stands as one obvious option — and he’s precisely the type of star-caliber player Padres president of baseball operations tends to pursue with nearly unrivaled aggression. Teammate Lucas Erceg, just reinstated off the injured list today, is another speculative candidate who’d fit the bill. Other names will become clearer as July 30 inches closer and as teams more concretely plot their deadline trajectories. Some speculative names to keep in mind on current fringe contenders include the Ryan Helsley (Cardinals), Yimi Garcia (Blue Jays) and Hunter Harvey (Nationals) to name only a few.
Joe Musgrove Diagnosed With Bone Spur In Elbow
Joe Musgrove landed on the 15-day injured list over the weekend, his second such stint of the 2024 season. The Padres initially called the issue elbow inflammation. They provided more clarity this evening, announcing that an MRI revealed a bone spur (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).
While there’s relief in Musgrove avoiding any ligament damage, the bone spur is going to keep him out well beyond the minimal two weeks. Cassavell writes that the former All-Star will be shut down entirely for two weeks. He could begin playing catch at that point, but that’ll likely require a multi-week build before he’s ready for a minor league rehab assignment. Musgrove conceded that he could require arthroscopic surgery if the injury doesn’t heal with rest, but that’s not currently under consideration. He recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection.
With a little more than five weeks before the All-Star Break, it seems likely Musgrove will be out into the second half of the season. His rehab process will determine whether he’s back at Petco Park before the trade deadline. The Padres are likely to look for starting pitching regardless — they’ve already been tied to White Sox breakout lefty Garrett Crochet — but Musgrove’s injury only adds to the uncertainty.
Dylan Cease, Michael King and Matt Waldron are the clear top three in the rotation at the moment. Yu Darvish landed on the 15-day IL alongside Musgrove, though it doesn’t seem that he’ll miss much time rehabbing a groin strain. San Diego recalled righty Randy Vásquez and promoted rookie Adam Mazur to step into the starting five. Vásquez carried a 5.74 ERA into tonight’s start against the Diamondbacks. Mazur made his MLB debut on Tuesday. Jackson Wolf, owner of a 5.83 ERA over 11 Triple-A appearances, is the only other starter on the 40-man roster.
San Diego’s rotation has turned in average results through the season’s first couple months. They’re 14th with an even 4.00 earned run average despite ranking fifth in MLB with a 24% strikeout rate. Darvish, Cease, Waldron and King have each allowed between three and four earned runs per nine with solid swing-and-miss numbers. Musgrove has had a disappointing season as he tried to navigate the elbow soreness. He has tossed fewer than five innings per start with a 5.66 ERA and a 20.6% strikeout rate that would easily be the worst of his Padres tenure.
MLBTR Podcast: Gambling Scandal, The State Of The Blue Jays And The Orioles’ Rotation Depth
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Tucupita Marcano of the Padres betting on baseball while with the Pirates (1:05)
- The Blue Jays are struggling but Ross Atkins says trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette doesn’t make sense (7:50)
- The Orioles lost John Means and Tyler Wells to surgery but also called up Connor Norby (17:45)
- While recording, we get the news of Marcano’s lifetime ban and find out the identities of the other players who were suspended (23:45)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Since the Brewers and Willy Adames didn’t reach an extension, is there any chance the Brewers consider trading him this summer? (24:25)
- It seems like there are more season-ending injuries, but is there any data to support that? If there is, is MLB taking a look at mitigating? (28:25)
- What will be the financial components of the deadline? Are there any teams that might have a surprising amount of payroll room? (33:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Ángel Hernández Retires, Ronald Acuña Jr. Out For The Season And Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting – listen here
- The Likelihood Of A Juan Soto Extension, What’s In Store For Pete Alonso, And Corbin Carroll’s Struggles – listen here
- Paul Skenes, The Prospect Hype Machine, Willson Contreras And Rising Catcher’s Interference Rates – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Padres Showing Strong Interest In Garrett Crochet
The Padres are showing strong interest in left-hander Garrett Crochet of the White Sox, per a report from Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The report cautions that no deal is imminent but it also states that the Friars have been the most aggressive club in pursuing Crochet.
Significant trades are fairly rare at this time of the year, with the trade deadline still almost two months away. However, there are reasons why it’s not so far-fetched with these two clubs. The two sides already lined up on a notable deal at an odd time not too long ago, when the Sox sent Dylan Cease to the Padres in the middle of March, just as the season was about to begin. Each club has also made a noteworthy trade since that time, with the Sox sending Robbie Grossman to the Rangers in early May and the Padres acquiring Luis Arráez from the Marlins around the same time.
For the Sox, they have been aggressively rebuilding for about a year now, selling off just about any player nearing free agency. For the Padres, it’s a part of their general modus operandi, as president of baseball operations A.J. Preller seems to have a strong will to explore all possible avenues for upgrading the club even if those overtures fall outside of standard operating procedure.
But there are also reasons why a deal may not get done. Crochet is in a very unique situation, which makes him less straightforward than other players the Sox have traded. He is still quite young, only 24 years old, turning 25 later this month. He is still under club control for two more years after this one and is only making $800K this year. That’s a reflection of both his quick ascent to the majors and his injury troubles, as he was in the big leagues by his age-21 season but has missed significant time and hasn’t been able to push his salary up.
The Sox put Crochet in the bullpen when they first called him up, an understandable move at the time given his youth and lack of experience. But he then required Tommy John surgery in April of 2022, which prevented him from pitching at all in 2022 and limited him to just 13 appearances last year.
His time spent on the injured list allowed him to reach arbitration in the most recent offseason, but the lengthy absence meant that he barely pushed his salary above the $740K league minimum. Despite a fairly limited innings tally, the Sox decided to stretch him out this year and the results have been excellent. Crochet has thrown 69 2/3 innings over his 13 starts this year, allowing 3.49 earned runs per nine innings. He has struck out 33.7% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.4% clip and also gotten grounders on 45.2% of balls in play.
For the Sox, they suddenly seem to have an ace on their hands, one who is still young and cheap and doesn’t have a ton on mileage on his arm. But on the other hand, his early promotion and Tommy John layoff means that he’s getting close-ish to free agency. Given the state of the Sox, it’s hard to imagine them returning to contention in the time frame of his club control, as their current record of 15-45 is easily the worst in the league.
Signing Crochet to an extension would be one way to avoid the trade path, but the lefty would have to agree to that. Thanks to his early call-up, he’s currently slated to reach free agency shortly after his 27th birthday, a rarely young age that could leave him well positioned to cash in a couple of years from now. The most recent offseason was rough for a lot of players, as many of them had to settle for deals well below expectations. But two players who blew past predictions were Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee, both of whom were 25 years old.
If that leaves the Sox open to a trade, the time to do it is now when Crochet’s value is highest. By the offseason, they will only be able to market two postseason runs instead of three, while Crochet’s salary will also increase via arbitration.
But whether the Padres can pull off such a trade is another question, something that Lin and Rosenthal highlight in their report. The Friars have traded away many prospects in recent years, including in the aforementioned deals for Cease and Arráez, as well as for Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Sean Manaea and others. Per today’s report, the Sox would probably need to bring back a significant position player in any Crochet deal. The report mentions prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries as possibilities but adds that the Padres are reluctant to part with either of those two in a Crochet deal.
Whether a deal can be done remains to be seen, but it’s understandable why the Padres are sniffing around for starting pitching. They recently put Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish on the injured list, subtracting two of their most established starters. They still have Cease, but the rotation gets flimsy after that. Michael King was mostly a reliever until about a year ago and is still in the process of cementing himself as a big league starter. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez each have less than 105 major league innings pitched in their respective careers while Adam Mazur is going to be called up to make his major league debut this week.
Despite the rotation struggles, the club is currently 32-31 and holding onto a Wild Card spot. Proactively acquiring Crochet or any starting pitcher now, as opposed to waiting until the deadline in late July, could help the club stay afloat in what is shaping up to be a very competitive National League playoff race.
Astros Acquire Nick Hernandez From Padres
The Astros announced they’ve acquired minor league reliever Nick Hernandez from the Padres (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). San Diego receives cash considerations in return. Hernandez was not on the Padres’ 40-man roster and will not immediately occupy a roster spot in Houston.
It’s a homecoming for the 29-year-old Hernandez in a few respects. He’s a Houston-area native who attended the University of Houston. Hernandez also began his career with the Astros, who selected him in the eighth round of the 2016 draft. The 6’1″ righty played in the organization until 2022, topping out at Triple-A Sugar Land. He qualified for minor league free agency after the ’22 season and signed with San Diego.
Hernandez got to the majors with the Padres last fall. He appeared in two games, allowing four runs in three innings. The Friars outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the start of the winter but circled back on a new minor league contract in January. He has been pitching at Triple-A El Paso, where he’s turned in excellent results.
He owns a 1.90 ERA across 23 2/3 innings despite the difficult pitching environment in the Pacific Coast League. Hernandez has punched out 34% of batters faced and has a near-31% strikeout percentage over parts of four Triple-A campaigns. He has typically issued a few too many free passes, but this season’s 9% walk rate isn’t far from league average. Hernandez has a full slate of options remaining, so the Astros would be able to move him between Houston and Sugar Land if they add him to the 40-man roster.
MLB Issues Lifetime Ban To Tucupita Marcano For Betting On Baseball, Announces Four Other One-Year Suspensions
Major League Baseball announced Tuesday morning that Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano has been declared permanently ineligible for violating the league’s sports betting rules and policies — specifically Rule 21(d)(2). Per this morning’s press release:
In March 2024, MLB learned from a legal sports betting operator that it had identified past baseball betting activity from accounts connected to multiple Major and Minor League players. MLB obtained data from that operator and other sportsbooks, including authentication data for bets. None of these players played in any game on which they placed a bet. Further, all of the players denied that they had any inside information relevant to the bets or that any of the baseball games they bet on were compromised or manipulated, and the betting data does not suggest that any outcomes in the baseball games on which they placed bets were compromised, influenced, or manipulated in any way. None of the players are appealing their discipline.
Under Major League Rule 21, “Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has no duty to perform, shall be declared ineligible for one year.” Whereas, “Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform, shall be declared permanently ineligible.”
MLB’s investigation found that from Oct. 16-23, 2022 and from July 12 to November 1, 2023, Marcano placed 387 bets on baseball, including 25 bets on Pirates games where he was a member of Pittsburgh’s roster. All 25 of those Pirates bets came while Marcano was rehabbing from a season-ending ACL tear, so he did not appear in any of the games in question. The bets nonetheless violate the league policy and have thus triggered the lifetime ban.
The league’s investigation found that Marcano placed more than $150K worth of bets on baseball. Most of the bets in question were parlays, some including his own (at the time) Pirates club. Marcano’s bets typically involved the Pirates winning the game or were over/under bets on the number of runs scored within the game.
Major League Baseball also announced that Athletics right-hander Michael Kelly, Diamondbacks lefty Andrew Saalfrank, Padres minor league pitcher Jay Groome and Phillies minor league infielder Jose Rodriguez have been given one-year bans for violating Rule 21(d)(1). All four players were found to have made bets on Major League Baseball games but were not on the Major League roster or injured list of any teams involved in the bets they placed.
Kelly, 31, is an active member of the Athletics’ bullpen and has pitched to a 2.59 ERA in 31 1/3 innings this season. His bets were all placed in Oct. 2021, when the right-hander was with the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate. He made only ten bets for a total of $99.92, with three of those bets coming on games involving the Astros’ big league club during the postseason. Despite the meager total of Kelly’s bets, his gambling activity was a violation of the rule in place and will trigger that one-year ban.
Similarly, each of Saalfrank ($445), Groome ($453) and Rodriguez ($749) bet under $1,000 on Major League games back in 2020-21. All were minor league players at the time — Saalfrank with Arizona’s Low-A team, Groome with the Red Sox’ High-A affiliate and Rodriguez with the White Sox’ Double-A club.
Commissioner Rob Manfred issued the following statement on today’s suspensions:
“The strict enforcement of Major League Baseball’s rules and policies governing gambling conduct is a critical component of upholding our most important priority: protecting the integrity of our games for the fans. The longstanding prohibition against betting on Major League Baseball games by those in the sport has been a bedrock principle for over a century. We have been clear that the privilege of playing in baseball comes with a responsibility to refrain from engaging in certain types of behavior that are legal for other people. Since the Supreme Court decision opened the door to legalized sports betting, we have worked with licensed sports betting operators and other third parties to put ourselves in a better position from an integrity perspective through the transparency that a regulated sports betting system can provide. MLB will continue to invest heavily in integrity monitoring, educational programming and awareness initiatives with the goal of ensuring strict adherence to this fundamental rule of our game.”
MLBTR readers can view the league’s entire press release, which contains further specifics on the nature of each player’s bets, in its entirety at MLB.com.
Tucupita Marcano Under Investigation For Betting On Baseball
Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano is under investigation by Major League Baseball for betting on baseball while a member of the Pirates, according to a report from Jared Diamond and Lindsey Adler of The Wall Street Journal. Marcano is facing a lifetime ban. Four other players are under investigation for betting on baseball while in the minor leagues as well, though the identities of those others are not known. The report adds that there’s no evidence at this point of games being manipulated.
Marcano, 24, was placed on the injured list by the Pirates in July of last year and eventually underwent surgery to repair the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. The Padres claimed him off waivers in November and he has been on the injured list for all of 2024 so far, still recovering from that surgery.
Per the report from Diamond and Adler, Marcano “has been accused of betting on games involving the Pittsburgh Pirates last season while he was on the injured list for that team.” Per the report, the league and the MLB Players’ Association are still discussing Marcano’s ultimate punishment but, as mentioned, a lifetime ban is on the table. Marcano, the league and the union all declined to comment for the piece, though the Padres released a statement:
“We are aware of an active investigation by Major League Baseball regarding a matter that occurred when the player in question was a member of another organization and not affiliated with the San Diego Padres. We will not have any further comment until the investigative process has been completed.”
Brian Warecki, Pirates’ senior vice president of Communications, also issued a statement, relayed by Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on X. “We are aware of the matter that’s under investigation and are fully cooperating. We will refrain from further comment at this time.”
As relayed by the WSJ piece, the league’s gambling policy is prominently displayed in all clubhouses. Baseball players are legally allowed to bet on other sports but not on baseball. A player betting on teams other than his own faces a one-year suspension but betting on a game involving his own team results in a lifetime ban.
Gambling scandals have been around almost as long as baseball itself. Most famously, the “Black Sox Scandal” saw eight members of the 1919 White Sox were banned for life after being accused of taking bribes from gamblers to throw that year’s World Series. MLB’s all-time hits leader Pete Rose also received a lifetime ban in 1989 after accusations that he gambled on the Reds during his time as a player and manager.
More recently, gambling scandals have come back into the spotlight, thanks to a 2018 Supreme Court decision that opened the door for states to legalize the practice. Ippei Mizuhara, the former interpreter for Shohei Ohtani, is in the process of pleading guilty to bank fraud and subscribing to a false tax return in relation to a gambling scandal. To this point, the evidence of that case suggests he didn’t bet on baseball. However, he did make bets with an illegal bookmaker in California, where sports betting is still illegal. He is alleged to have stolen millions of dollars from an account in Ohtani’s name in order to pay off his debts. David Fletcher of the Braves is also under investigation for placing bets with the same bookmaker as Mizuhara, though Fletcher isn’t accused of placing bets on baseball either. Gambling has also been an issue in other sports, with Jontay Porter receiving a ban from the NBA for gambling violations while playing for the Raptors.
Mizuhara and Fletcher both bet on other sports in a state where it’s illegal, while Mizuhara is also alleged to have committed several financial crimes. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred discussed those situations last month and said the league would be taking a hands-off approach until the legal process played out.
The Marcano situation would appear to be a different matter. If the accusations are proven to be true and he did indeed bet on the Pirates while a member of the team, it would appear to be a straightforward case where a lifetime ban will be the result. Further details on this case, and the cases of the other four players, will undoubtedly be forthcoming in the future.
Padres To Select Adam Mazur
The Padres are promoting pitching prospect Adam Mazur, as first reported by FanSided’s Robert Murray (on X). The right-hander is listed as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s matchup with the Angels.
San Diego selected Mazur in the second round of the 2022 draft. The University of Iowa product worked to a 2.81 ERA in 96 innings during his first professional season. Baseball America ranked the Saint Paul native as the #6 prospect in the organization over the winter. BA’s offseason scouting report credited Mazur with a mid-90s fastball and a plus slider to lead a four-pitch mix. The outlet also lauded his plus-plus (70-grade) control, no surprise for a pitcher who walked a minuscule 4.3% of batters faced a year ago.
The Padres started Mazur at Double-A San Antonio this year. He breezed past the level, working to a 1.95 ERA with a near-27% strikeout rate while issuing only five walks in his first six starts. He’s had a tougher time since being promoted to Triple-A El Paso last month. Over four appearances in the Pacific Coast League, he has been tagged for 15 runs in 19 innings. Mazur has given up four homers in a tough setting for pitchers, but he has fanned 18 opponents (22.8%) against four walks (5.1%).
Despite Mazur’s lack of Triple-A experience, he’ll get his first look at major league hitters in Anaheim. The Padres lost both Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish to the injured list over the weekend. That left a pair of vacancies behind Michael King, Dylan Cease and Matt Waldron. San Diego recalled right-hander Randy Vásquez for a start against the Royals on Saturday. Mazur will get at least one start and could take a couple turns through the rotation. The Padres don’t have an off day until June 13.
San Diego’s 40-man roster is full. They’ll need to make a corresponding move to select Mazur’s contract, though that’ll likely be a procedural transaction. Glenn Otto and Tucupita Marcano have been on the injured list all season and could be moved to the 60-day IL without impacting their eligibility to return. (Marcano is reportedly under MLB investigation for allegedly placing bets on baseball last year.) The Padres will need to option a pitcher as a corresponding active roster move once they officially call Mazur up.
Padres Place Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove On 15-Day Injured List
1:18PM: The Padres have announced that both Musgrove and Darvish have placed on the 15-day IL. Musgrove’s injury has been termed as right elbow inflammation and his placement date is retroactive to May 29, while Darvish has a left groin strain and a May 30 retroactive placement date. Vasquez and Logan Gillaspie have been called up from Triple-A.
Darvish lasted only three innings before his hamstring forced him out of his start against Miami last Wednesday, though the injury has now been diagnosed as a groin problem. This could be a new injury stemming from the initial issue, or simply a clearer diagnosis after a couple of days of testing. The Padres listed Darvish day-to-day at first, so it seems possible that Darvish might be back after only 15 days if the injury is somewhat minor in nature.
12:30PM: Joe Musgrove has been scratched from his scheduled start today and will instead be placed on the Padres’ 15-day injured list. According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (X link), Musgrove is again suffering from the triceps tendinitis that already sent him to the IL at the start of May. Right-hander Randy Vasquez was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take Musgrove’s spot on the active roster and to start today’s game against the Royals.
Somewhat ominously, Acee wrote that Musgrove’s triceps issue “is not believed at this time to be a season-ending injury.” While this is positive news at the moment, the fact that there’s enough uncertainty over this lingering injury that an early end to Musgrove’s 2024 campaign is even a possibility is certainly not a good sign. Even if no structural damage is found, even relatively minor cases of inflammation or tendinitis can lead to lengthy layoffs, if a pitcher simply continues to feel discomfort when throwing.
Musgrove looked pretty good in the two starts since returning from the first IL trip, posting a 2.16 ERA over 8 1/3 frames. After laboring through three innings in his first outing on May 21, he looked much sharper on May 26 when tossing 5 1/3 shutout innings against the powerful Yankees lineup in a 5-2 Padres victory. Considering how Musgrove had a 6.37 ERA in his 41 innings prior to that initial IL visit, it seemed as though he was over his triceps problems and back in his normal form as a frontline member of San Diego’s pitching staff.
Vasquez is a logical fill-in candidate while Musgrove is out, yet Vasquez doesn’t have much big league experience, and his 5.82 ERA over 21 2/3 innings this season indicates that he might not be an ideal choice as a longer-term rotation patch if Musgrove has to miss a significant amount of time. Even beyond Musgrove, Yu Darvish is also dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him out of his last start, and it isn’t yet known if Darvish will be able to make his next start or if he might also need to visit the 15-day IL.
The Padres’ next off-day isn’t until June 13, plus the rotation has some depth question even with Darvish and Musgrove both healthy. Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron have settled into rotation roles, and that trio plus Darvish, Musgrove, and Vasquez have accounted for all of the Padres’ starts this season. Ryan Carpenter or Jackson Wolf could be the top Triple-A depth options, though even accounting for the Pacific Coast League’s hitter-friendly bent, Carpenter’s 8.74 ERA and Wolf’s 6.69 ERA are cause for concern. (Vasquez also has a 7.45 ERA in 19 1/3 innings for El Paso.)
Jurickson Profar Is Rewarding The Padres’ Faith
The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.
Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.
Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.
Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.
There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.
Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.
He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.
San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.
Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.