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MLBTR Poll: Michael Wacha’s Option

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Among last winter’s notable free agents, few remained unsigned as long as Michael Wacha. The veteran right-hander was on the market until mid-February. He eventually inked a four-year, $26MM guarantee to join the Padres, although the contract structure was rather complex.

Wacha was guaranteed $7.5MM for this season between his salary and a signing bonus. (He subsequently earned an additional $500K for starting 20 games.) This winter, the Padres will have to decide whether to trigger successive $16MM options — essentially a two-year, $32MM pact. If the Friars decline, Wacha would have a $6.5MM player option for next season (with two additional $6MM player options thereafter). If neither side exercises its end of the option, he’d return to free agency.

The 32-year-old’s production is quite similar to last year’s work. After posting a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts for the Red Sox a year ago, he’s allowed 3.44 earned runs per nine over 22 appearances this season. As was the case last season, estimators like FIP (4.02) and SIERA (4.49) are less enthused than his ERA would suggest. That reflects fine but unexceptional strikeout and walk marks. Wacha’s 22.2% strikeout percentage and 8.2% walk rate are right in line with the respective 22.1% and 7.9% league averages for starting pitchers.

Last season, Wacha had slightly lower than average strikeout and walk figures. His fastball speed has dipped from 93 MPH to 91.8 MPH, though he’s compensated by leaning a little more on his cutter and changeup. His overall swinging-strike rate is up one percentage point.

Those are minor changes. In aggregate, Wacha looks largely the same as he did a season ago. The market didn’t seem to materialize the way he’d anticipated last winter, leading to his extended free agent stay. It’s possible teams are more inclined to buy into Wacha’s stronger bottom line results after a second sub-3.50 ERA showing, though his production has tailed off down the stretch.

He carried a 2.84 ERA over 85 2/3 innings into the All-Star Break. He’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine in 34 2/3 frames in the second half. Wacha’s strikeout and ground-ball rates have improved as the season has gone on, but he has paired that with a few more walks of late. His production also tailed off in the second half of the 2022 campaign, when he posted a 4.11 ERA after running a 2.69 mark through the break.

The Padres’ call on a two-year, $32MM option looks as if it could go either way. There were a handful of veteran pitchers who signed in that range last winter. Nathan Eovaldi got $34MM over two seasons from the Rangers, who also surrendered a draft choice after he declined a qualifying offer. Eovaldi had pitched to a 3.80 ERA over 291 2/3 innings in the preceding two seasons but had superior strikeout and walk marks to Wacha.

The Giants inked Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to matching two-year, $25MM guarantees with an opt-out after the first season. Stripling is perhaps the closest comparison point to Wacha, as he was coming off a 3.01 ERA in his platform season despite a modest 20.7% strikeout rate. As with Wacha, Stripling’s career track record has been inconsistent. Manaea was more of a rebound flier, as he’d had a dismal second half preceding his free agent trip.

José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and Tyler Anderson (three years, $39MM after rejecting a qualifying offer) each had a sub-3.00 ERA in their platform seasons. Both had mixed results in the few years leading up to 2022 and were older than Wacha is now. They each showed strong command last season with roughly average swing-and-miss rates and low-90s velocity.

Wacha fits in that category of back-end starter, which generally received around $12-13MM annually over two or three years last winter. Wacha’s $16MM club options are a bit above that, but the player option values are well below it. If the Padres decline their end, Wacha is very likely to opt out and test free agency. He at least shouldn’t have any issue topping the respective $17MM and $19MM two-year guarantees secured by Jordan Lyles and Drew Smyly last offseason.

The Padres are one of the league’s higher-spending franchises and already facing ample uncertainty in their rotation. Blake Snell is going to be a free agent. Seth Lugo is almost certainly going to decline a player option and test the market. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are the only veteran starters guaranteed to be in next year’s rotation; both ended this season on the injured list. Nick Martinez could opt out of his own deal if the Friars decline a two-year, $32MM extension.

None of the other pitchers to log any kind of rotation time for San Diego are clear answers. Ryan Weathers was traded away at the deadline. Rich Hill has been knocked around and seems likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. Pedro Avila and Matt Waldron have ERA’s around 6.00 when working as starters. If the Padres don’t retain Wacha, they’ll likely need to add one or two similar pitchers in free agency or trade.

Is it worthwhile for the Padres to preserve some stability by locking Wacha back in at the start of the offseason, even if the annual salary is a bit beyond what he’d likely receive on the open market? Would they be better served preserving that flexibility going into the winter as they sort through other rotation possibilities?

(poll link for app users)

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays’ Stadium Agreement

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

Check out our past episodes!

Padres’ Tim Hill Undergoes Finger Surgery

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Padres reliever Tim Hill underwent surgery today to address a ligament injury in his left ring finger, tweets Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He won’t throw for six to eight weeks but is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Hill, 34 in February, has spent the last four seasons as a situational option out of the San Diego bullpen. A sidearming lefty, he doesn’t throw hard but works from a low enough arm angle to usually keep the ball on the ground. Hill’s grounder percentage has been a bit north of 60% for three years running, while his career mark is just below that threshold. That resulted in consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings from 2021-22, but his results this season haven’t been as impressive.

Over 44 1/3 innings, Hill posted a 5.48 ERA. He struck out fewer than 13% of batters faced for the second straight year. While Hill kept his walks and grounders in his customary range, he struggled when opponents were able to elevate the ball. Right-handed hitters posted a .378/.431/.602 batting line in 110 plate appearances. Righties have frequently given him trouble, which isn’t uncommon for low-slot lefties, but this year’s results were easily a career worst.

Hill has generally fared well against same-handed batters. From 2020-22, he kept lefties to a .212/.299/.303 line in 262 trips to the plate. Opponents found more success this season, putting up a .275/.352/.400 mark over 92 plate appearances.

The Padres and Hill agreed on a $1.85MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. He’d be due a modest raise on that figure if San Diego wanted to keep him around for his final season of eligibility. Given his diminished results, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Padres opt against tendering him a contract.

Drew Pomeranz Shut Down For Remainder Of 2023 Season

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Left-hander Drew Pomeranz has been dealing with elbow discomfort while rehabbing with Triple-A El Paso, and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (X link) reports that Pomeranz’s season is officially over.  The southpaw already hasn’t seen any action since pitching a scoreless inning for El Paso on September 3.

Pomeranz is heading for free agency, as his four-year, $34MM contract with the Padres is up after the season.  The deal amounted to 44 1/3 relief innings for San Diego over the 2020-21 seasons, as Pomeranz hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since August 2021 due to flexor tendon surgery and then several setbacks due to lingering soreness.  He underwent another elbow surgery back in May, and he only returned in late August to make four minor league appearances before being shut down yet again.

Pomeranz turns 35 in November, and between his age, two lost seasons, and a left elbow that still doesn’t seem to be 100 percent, it isn’t out of the question that the left-hander might consider retirement.  The fifth overall pick of the 2010 draft and a veteran of 11 Major League seasons, Pomeranz battled to find consistency as a starter for much of his career, though his highs included an All-Star appearance in 2016 (during his first stint with the Padres).  After he struggled as a starter in 2018-19, he seemingly found a second chapter as a full-time reliever with the Brewers during the 2019 campaign, which prompted San Diego to take the $34MM plunge on his services in the 2019-20 offseason.

Given his past track record, Pomeranz could still get some looks on a minor league contract this winter, provided he is able to get healthy.  A no-risk minors deal leaves some wiggle room for a team if Pomeranz’s elbow problems do continue, and a new club could at least get some chance to evaluate Pomeranz first-hand to see if a comeback is possible or feasible.

Injury Notes: Correa, Kim, Feltner, Gallegos

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Carlos Correa exited Monday night’s game against the Reds in the first inning following a flare-up of his plantar fasciitis. The shortstop told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that he felt a tweak in his heel as he ran to catch a pop fly.

Correa has been playing through the painful condition throughout most of the season. He was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis and a muscle strain in his left foot arch back in May but has avoided a trip to the injured list thus far. The two-time All-Star suggested he could sit out a few games to preserve his body for the playoffs, although he emphasized that neither he nor the Twins have determined a course of action just yet. He acknowledged that time off his feet would do him some good, but even so, he might prefer to keep playing until Minnesota has officially clinched the AL Central crown.

The 28-year-old is in the midst of a down year, slashing just .230/.312/.399. His injury could certainly be responsible for his dip in production, in which case a few days of rest would make even more sense. The Twins are all but certain to reach October, and now is the time for Correa to focus on restoring his health. That being said, it’s understandable why he’d want to take the field every day down the stretch. As the most accomplished and highest-paid player on the roster, the 2017 World Series champion has a leadership role to play in the Twins’ clubhouse.

In other injury news around baseball:

  • Ha-Seong Kim sits out a second straight game, as he continues to deal with discomfort in his abdomen. The Padres infielder told reporters, including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, that he isn’t sure why he feels so unwell, and he’s waiting on test results that he hopes will reveal the cause. Kim has been a bright spot in a difficult season for San Diego, hitting 17 home runs, stealing 36 bases, and playing excellent defense all around the infield. Unfortunately, he has been slumping as of late, with a .204/.291/.282 slash-line over the past month; it’s unclear if his slump has anything to do with his abdominal pain.
  • The Rockies are preparing to reinstate starting pitcher Ryan Feltner ahead of Tuesday’s contest with the Padres, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Feltner has been on the 60-day IL since late May, as he recovered from a concussion and a fractured skull. The Rockies have an open spot on their 40-man roster, so they can reinstate the righty without making a corresponding move. However, they’ll still need to free up a spot for him on the active roster. Feltner was off to a rough start in 2023 (5.86 ERA in eight starts) even before a liner off the bat of Nick Castellanos nearly ended his season. Suffice it to say, it’s remarkable that he’ll be returning to the field after such a scary injury.
  • The Cardinals have placed Giovanny Gallegos on the 15-day IL with right shoulder rotator cuff tendonitis. Jake Woodford was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot on the active roster. The team told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that the injury doesn’t seem serious, but they’re playing it extra safe as the season draws to a close. Indeed, they might have shut the righty down even sooner, but Gallegos wanted to ensure that he had properly addressed the pitch tipping issues he was having earlier in the season.

Manny Machado Expects To Undergo Elbow Surgery, Possibly Before End Of Season

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TODAY: Manny Machado told reporters on Monday (including Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that elbow surgery is now the likely course of action. While he did not say exactly when he plans to have the procedure, he did suggest it could be before the end of the season. It’s highly possible the six-time All-Star is waiting until the Padres are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention to make a final decision. Regardless of when (or if) he eventually undergoes surgery, the third baseman hopes he’ll be back on the field for spring training next year.

SEPTEMBER 9: The Padres remain on the outer fringes of the NL wild card race, as San Diego is seven games behind the Diamondbacks for the final wild card berth, and the Marlins, Reds, and Giants are all sandwiched between Arizona and San Diego in the standings.  Barring a miraculous September surge, it looks like it’s just a matter of time before the Padres are eliminated from the playoff race, which could also bring an early end to Manny Machado’s season.

According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, it is possible Machado might be shut down due to recurring elbow problems, specifically the type of inflammation best known as “tennis elbow.”  This is the second straight season that Machado has dealt with the injury, and he could opt for an offseason surgery that shouldn’t impact his readiness for the start of Spring Training.

While tennis elbow doesn’t usually require surgery, it might be necessary to finally solve an injury that has been bothering the third baseman for the better part of two years.  “The effects recently are more frequent and severe,” Acee writes, noting that Machado has been limited to DH-only duty over his last seven games.  Even in a hitting-only role, Acee hears that “there are certain swings that cause [Machado] a great deal of pain.”

The injury hasn’t resulted in any time on the injured list for Machado, though he did miss a couple of weeks earlier in the season due to a minor hand fracture.  However, the lingering elbow problem could explain Machado’s relatively disappointing season, as he has hit .253/.317/.453 with 26 homers over 545 plate appearances.  While still a 112 wRC+, it’s well below Machado’s standards, particularly in comparison to the 153 wRC+ he posted in 2022 while finishing second in NL MVP voting.

Machado’s performance has been one of many factors in a very disappointing season for the Padres, who are 67-75 despite one of the game’s highest payrolls and a +73 run differential.  With a playoff berth looking like a longshot at best, there wouldn’t be much of a cost for the Padres in shutting down Machado and getting his rehab (whether involving a surgery or not) underway as quickly as possible to get a jump start on 2024.

Padres Reinstate Ji Man Choi

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The Padres activated Ji Man Choi from the 10-day injured list this evening. Matt Carpenter landed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to September 12, with right elbow inflammation.

Choi makes it back to the majors before season’s end. He has been out since August 14, when a ribcage strain sent him to the IL. He was able to get back into rehab games a couple weeks later, but it seemed his season would be over when he fouled a ball off his right foot while playing for Triple-A El Paso 10 days ago.

While the Friars initially announced that Choi had broken his ankle, they quickly changed the diagnosis to a Lisfranc injury. Within two days, he was back on the field for El Paso. He made three more rehab appearances before getting the call back to the big league club.

It’s of little consequence for San Diego at this stage. They’re down to 69-78 and going to miss the postseason. Yet it could be a small boost for Choi personally. The left-handed hitter will be a free agent this winter. Playing out the final two and a half weeks will at least allow him to go into the offseason with a fairly clean bill of health. It has been a challenging season overall, as the 32-year-old missed a couple months early in the season with a strained left Achilles. He returned shortly before the trade deadline, was flipped from the Pirates to San Diego, then hurt his rib (and subsequently his foot).

Thanks to the injuries, Choi has gotten into just 30 games. He has slumped to a .179/.239/.440 line over 92 plate appearances and has yet to record a hit as a Padre. Choi was a solid offensive player for the Rays over the four prior seasons, combining for a .242/.350/.421 batting line with a stellar 13.8% walk rate.

Carpenter has had a tough first season with the Friars. He has a .176/.322/.319 line with five homers through 237 trips to the dish, a far cry from his resurgent .305/.412/.727 showing in 47 games for the Yankees last year. Even if he’s able to make it back for the final few games, he’ll surely exercise a $5.5MM player option in lieu of a return trip to free agency.

In other Friars’ injury news, Joe Musgrove won’t return this season. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports that the Padres are scaling back the throwing program for their staff ace. Musgrove has been out since early August with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He hasn’t suffered any kind of setback. Without even a glimmer of hope for a playoff run, the team simply decided there’s no reason to push him.

Musgrove’s season concludes with a 3.05 ERA across 17 starts. He’s under contract for four more seasons at $20MM annually. He and Yu Darvish are the two locks for next year’s starting five. Blake Snell will be a free agent,while Seth Lugo is likely to decline a player option to test the market himself. Michael Wacha could also hit free agency if both he and the team decline their end of various options in his deal. That’ll leave the Friars in search of a handful of starting pitchers over the coming months.

Rich Hill Remains On Waivers

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Sept. 14: Bradford has issued a correction, tweeting that Hill’s waiver period does not expire until today. Hill has not yet formally gone unclaimed.

Sept. 13: Padres southpaw Rich Hill went unclaimed on waivers, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI (Twitter link). San Diego doesn’t have to outright him to a minor league affiliate. In all likelihood, he’ll remain on the Friars’ roster for the final couple weeks of the season.

The Padres put the veteran southpaw on waivers earlier this week. With their playoff hopes dashed, they tried to offload the roughly $817K remaining on his $8MM contract. No other team bit, leaving San Diego on the hook for that sum.

It’s not an especially surprising development. Players acquired after August 31 are ineligible to participate in the postseason. Hill is an impending free agent, so he’d only be available to another team for the final two and a half weeks of the regular season. Even with clubs permitted to carry 14 pitchers on the roster in September, there wasn’t enough upside to absorb Hill’s above-minimum salary for just a few weeks.

The 43-year-old also simply hasn’t pitched well of late. He has been tagged for a 9.25 ERA over 24 1/3 innings since the deadline trade that sent him from the Pirates to San Diego. That includes two innings of two-run ball last night against the Dodgers. (Teams are permitted to continue using a player who is on waivers pending resolution of the claim.) He has allowed multiple runs in all but one of his eight outings as a Padre and has only gone beyond four innings once.

While there’s no sugarcoating his performance over the past six weeks, Hill was a reasonably effective back-end option for Pittsburgh. He worked to a 4.76 ERA through 22 starts for the Bucs, striking out 19.6% of batters faced against an 8.9% walk rate. Those are below-average marks but serviceable for a fifth/sixth starter, enough to pique San Diego’s interest at the deadline.

Overall, Hill sports a 5.53 ERA across 143 1/3 innings in what is his 19th year logging MLB action. He can work in a multi-inning relief capacity or make another start or two as San Diego plays out the string. He’ll have to take a cut relative to this year’s salary if he wants to continue playing, but he’d surely at least find minor league interest if he’s interested in prolonging his career.

Padres Shut Down Yu Darvish For Season

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The Padres are shutting down Yu Darvish for the rest of the season, skipper Bob Melvin told reporters (including Dennis Lin of the Athletic). Testing revealed an olecranon stress reaction in the veteran righty’s throwing elbow.

Darvish has been on the injured list since August 26. The issue was first diagnosed as inflammation. The stress reaction is more serious, though it’s expected that Darvish will be able to rehab the injury without surgery. There’s little reason for the Friars to take chances with any notable player now that their playoff hopes are dashed.

The 37-year-old Darvish is a key rotation member beyond this season. Last winter, San Diego signed him to an extension which tacked on five years and $90MM in new money. It’s a bold investment that runs through the pitcher’s age-41 campaign.

While Darvish was coming off a 3.10 ERA showing last season, he didn’t replicate that production in 2023. He concludes his year with a 4.56 ERA across 24 starts and 136 1/3 innings. His underlying marks didn’t have the same level of decline, however. Darvish’s fastball velocity still sat just under 95 MPH on average. His strikeout rate dropped just one percentage point from 25.6% to 24.6%, while he lost less than one point on his swinging strike percentage. He issued a few more walks and allowed a bit more hard contact, but his profile beyond the ERA doesn’t look all that different from prior seasons.

It’s crucial for the Padres that Darvish perform at a mid-rotation or better level next year. The Friars have plenty of uncertainty in the starting staff. Blake Snell is headed to free agency. Seth Lugo is almost certain to join him by declining a $7.5MM player option. Each of Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez (the latter of whom has again worked almost exclusively in relief anyways) have complex options on their contracts but could potentially hit free agency themselves.

Darvish and Joe Musgrove — who is also on the injured list and might not return this season — are the only pitchers assured of spots in next year’s rotation. The upcoming free agent class is deep in starting pitching, so president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff figure to add two or more arms from the open market.

Padres Place Rich Hill On Waivers

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The Padres have placed veteran lefty Rich Hill on waivers, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. They’ll see if another team wants to claim southpaw — and the remaining $817K on this year’s $8MM salary in the process. If Hill goes unclaimed, he can remain with the Padres. They don’t have to outright him to a minor league affiliate.

Hill, 43, was acquired from the Pirates alongside Ji Man Choi prior to the trade deadline but hasn’t performed as hoped. In seven appearances with the Friars, he’s logged a 9.27 ERA, yielding 23 runs over the life of 22 1/3 innings. He was far more serviceable in Pittsburgh, where he logged a 4.76 ERA in 119 frames over the season’s first three months. Hill isn’t missing bats like he used to, with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate against a slightly higher-than-average 8.9% walk rate.

It hasn’t been Hill’s best season, but he’s only a year removed from starting 26 games for the Red Sox and turning in a 4.27 earned run average with a slightly improved 20.7% strikeout rate and a sharp 7% walk rate. He wouldn’t be postseason-eligible with a new team, as players are required to be in their organization prior to Sept. 1 in order to qualify for that distinction. Still, a team in need of some innings down the stretch could certainly look to Hill as a veteran stopgap. He’s also voiced a desire to continue his career into 2024 — his age-44 season — so a quick stint elsewhere in the season’s final three weeks could serve as an audition of sorts for next year.

Hill’s recent performance and remaining salary give him a good chance at passing through waivers. However, if a team were to claim him, he’d have the potential to make some anecdotal history. The Padres are the 13th team of Hill’s career, placing him one shy of Edwin Jackson’s oddball record of 14 teams. If a new team claims Hill, he could tie Jackson’s mark and perhaps pass it this offseason, though that’s surely not of great consequence to him. (Immaculate Grid players, on the other hand, would surely welcome the record.)

In 379 career games dating all the way back to 2005, Hill has pitched 1400 1/3 innings, logging an overall 4.01 ERA with an 89-73 record, 23.9% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. A new team and a potential offseason deal to come back for a 20th Major League season would give him a chance at topping 1500 innings and 100 wins in a career that’s been as lengthy as it has unusual.

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