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Giants Sign Michael Conforto

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Jan. 6: The Giants have formally announced Conforto’s two-year deal. The opt-out provision in his contract is contingent on plate appearances, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports (Twitter link). Conforto will trigger the ability to opt out upon reaching 350 plate appearances.

Dec. 23: The Giants and outfielder Michael Conforto are in agreement on a two-year, $36MM deal. Conforto will be able to opt out after the first season. The deal is pending a physical. He is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Conforto, 30 in March, was arguably the best upside play remaining on the free agent market based on his excellent run of results from 2017 through 2020. However, it’s not without risk for the Giants, as Conforto had a disappointing season in 2021 and then missed the 2022 season entirely due to shoulder surgery.

In that 2017-2020 stretch, Conforto got into 467 games for the Mets and launched 97 home runs. His 24.4% strikeout rate was slightly higher than average but his 12.7% walk rate was well beyond par. His overall offensive output resulted in a batting line of .265/.369/.495, which was 33% above league average by measure of wRC+. That 133 wRC+ was in the top 25 among all qualified hitters in baseball during that time.

In 2021, Conforto’s production dipped, most notably in the power department. He only hit 14 home runs in 125 games after hitting 27 or more in the previous three full seasons. He finished the year with a .232/.344/.384 slash, which was still a bit above average as his wRC+ was 106, but a noticeable drop-off from his prior form. Despite that down year, the Mets felt comfortable extending him an $18.4MM qualifying offer and Conforto felt comfortable rejecting.

He went into free agency looking for a lucrative multi-year offer but didn’t secure it prior to the December 1 lockout. He then injured his shoulder while training during that lockout and eventually required surgery. Given his uncertain health status and attachment to draft pick forfeiture from rejecting the qualifying offer, that scrubbed any chance of him securing a significant contract. Once the draft passed and he was no longer tied to any kind of penalties, there were some rumors of teams considering signing him to a short deal while hoping his shoulder could heal enough to aid a stretch run, but that never materialized.

Conforto then entered this offseason as a high-risk, high-reward play. He’s coming off an entire missed season and a poor showing in 2021, but was one of the best hitters in baseball prior to that. MLBTR predicted he would land a one-year, $15MM deal, hoping to prove his health and return to free agency for a more lucrative deal a year from now. Conforto’s agent, Scott Boras, said that his client would be looking for a two-year deal with an opt-out akin to the one he negotiated between Carlos Rodón and the Giants. The situations were somewhat analogous since Rodón was also an extremely talented player with health concerns. However, he was at least coming off a strong 2021 season when he secured that two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants, so it seemed like Conforto would have to settle for something beneath that given his greater uncertainty. He has now indeed secured the deal he was looking for, with the Giants again proving to be the team willing to give out the desired opt-out. Conforto got a lesser guarantee than Rodón, as expected, but has done quite well for himself in getting a higher salary than predicted.

Despite Conforto’s uncertain status, he still proved to be quite popular this offseason. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Mets, Rockies, Cubs, Marlins, Mariners and Astros were all connected to him at various points in the offseason. Some of those clubs ended up addressing their outfields with other players, but those that still have designs on upgrades will find limited options remaining on the open market. Some of the top unsigned free agent outfielders are Jurickson Profar, David Peralta, Trey Mancini and AJ Pollock.

For the Giants, they went into this offseason looking to be aggressive. They followed up their 107-win campaign in 2021 with a disappointing 81-81 finish in 2022. Since their future payroll was fairly wide open and they were looking for significant improvements, they were frequently connected to marquee free agents such as Aaron Judge and the “big four” shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi did little to temper expectations, telling media at the beginning of the offseason that “from a financial standpoint, there would be nobody that would be out of our capability.”

The early stages of the club’s offseason seemed to orbit around their pursuit of Judge and the club reportedly offered him a contract of $360MM, but he eventually secured that same guarantee from the Yankees and accepted. The Giants then pivoted to Correa and agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal, though that ended up falling through in unprecedented fashion. The Giants flagged something in Correa’s medical that gave them pause, later reported to be his right leg, postponing the official signing just as it was to be announced. Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that Correa had even begun house shopping with his family in the area. But the health concerns were enough that they allowed him to walk away from the pact, freeing him to secure a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets shortly thereafter.

Since all of the other top free agents were already off the board, there were no remaining avenues for the Giants to make the big splash that many expected. By turning to Conforto, they arguably did the best they could among the remaining free agents. However, there’s a certain absurdity to the club walking into a public relations nightmare by letting Correa slip away at the last second, only to see their two biggest free agent splashes be Conforto, who missed the entire 2022 season, and Mitch Haniger, who has only twice played 100 games in a season due to various injuries.

Regardless of the optics, the Giants were reportedly looking to add two outfielders this offseason and have accomplished that. Conforto has played center field in the past but not since 2019 and he wasn’t graded well there at that time. The Giants will most likely be looking at Conforto and Haniger in the corners, leaving center field to Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater. That will likely push LaMonte Wade Jr. into spending more time at first base, potentially platooning with J.D. Davis, where the club will be facing the loss of Brandon Belt.

Assuming an even distribution of the money, this contract brings the club’s payroll up to $181MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll of $154MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, though they’ve gone above $200MM in the past. Their $197MM competitive balance tax calculation is also well shy of the $233MM luxury tax threshold. That could leave them room to maneuver if they have their eyes on further additions.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the two sides were in agreement on a two-year, $36MM deal. Buster Olney of ESPN first noted the opt-out provision.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Carlos Correa’s Camp In Discussions With At Least One Team Other Than Mets

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It has now been more than two weeks since Carlos Correa and the Mets agreed to terms on a 12-year contract. That came within hours of his deal with the Giants falling through because of the club’s concerns with his physical. New York took similar umbrage with Correa’s right leg during their own examination a few days later, however, leaving one of the market’s top free agents in something of a state of limbo.

Since the Mets expressed concern about Correa’s physical a few days before Christmas, the organization and the two-time All-Star’s camp have maintained ongoing optimism about their ability to work through the issue. For the last two weeks, Correa’s representatives at the Boras Corporation had solely been in contact with the Mets as they worked to finalize the deal. That’s apparently changing now, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Boras engaged at least one other team regarding Correa this afternoon.

To be clear, that’s not to say Correa is moving on from the Mets. Indeed, they still seem his likeliest destination. A Mets official expressed confidence to Heyman they’ll still get the contract done even with Correa opening talks with at least one more team. Andy Martino of SNY similarly tweeted this afternoon the Mets and Correa’s camp were continuing to work on a resolution.

Nevertheless, it’s a notable development that another club is at least peripherally back in the mix. The Post’s Mike Puma reported last week that at least three other teams had reached out to Correa in the wake of the physical snag with the Mets. Correa didn’t engage in those discussions at the time, so today’s development marks a notable change in his camp’s tack.

Heyman writes today the Twins are one of the clubs that have tried to reengage Correa at some point over the past couple weeks. Minnesota maintained throughout the offseason they were hoping to bring him back after his lone season in the Twin Cities. They reportedly made a ten-year, $285MM offer earlier in the winter, but that fell shy of both the $350MM the Giants were originally set to guarantee Correa and the $315MM the Mets had put on the table. According to multiple reports, Minnesota didn’t up that offer between the time the Giants deal fell through and his agreement with New York. Whether the Twins still have a $285MM offer on the table isn’t clear, although it stands to reason they’d have some concerns of their own about the status of Correa’s leg until/unless they conduct a physical as well.

Minnesota still has a vacancy at shortstop, with stopgap veteran Kyle Farmer looking to be the current favorite at the position. Which other teams could be involved is unknown. Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last week it was unlikely the club would circle back to Correa. The Braves and Red Sox each lost star shortstops in free agency this winter, though neither was tied especially strongly to Correa at any point in the offseason. Atlanta seems unlikely to make a massive free agent strike, while Boston just agreed to terms with Rafael Devers on a $313.5MM extension yesterday.

The Orioles were loosely linked to Correa at one point but never seemed to seriously make a run at a top-of-the-market free agent. The Padres, Phillies and Cubs each turned elsewhere in free agency for a star shortstop and the Dodgers reportedly had little interest in Correa thanks to his ties to the 2017 Astros.

All things considered, it’d appear the Twins would be the strongest competition for the Mets. That’d seem to be contingent on talks with New York falling apart. Heyman characterizes those discussions as “sticky” but there’s no suggestion they’re at a dire point.

Multiple reports in recent weeks have suggested the Mets are looking to add language that’d allow them to get out of part of the contract if Correa suffers a serious right leg injury. Puma first reported a week ago such a concept was under discussion. Ken Rosenthal reiterated that on The Athletic’s podcast on Tuesday, suggesting the deal would require some kind of modification to protect the Mets in case of injury.

Heyman echoes those reports, writing the Mets are insistent on including some kind of injury provision. According to Heyman, the club doesn’t want to make any major changes to the base 12-year, $315MM structure. They do, however, apparently want to build in a manner of lowering that guarantee and/or allowing them to get out of the contract early in the event Correa spends a certain amount of time on the injured list with a right leg problem specifically. How long such an IL stint would have to be and how many years or dollars could be voided in the case of an injury would have to be agreed upon by both sides, and it seems those issues are holding up the contract’s finalization.

That kind of clause is rare but not entirely without precedent. As an example, fellow Boras Corporation client J.D. Martinez altered his deal with the Red Sox over the 2018-19 offseason after the team flagged a foot issue during his physical. The sides moved forward with their agreed-upon five-year, $110MM framework but included stipulations that would’ve allowed the Red Sox to opt out of the final two years of the contract in the event Martinez suffered another foot injury that resulted in a lengthy injured list stint (as reported by Evan Drellich, then of NBC Sports Boston). Martinez never suffered a serious injury and wound up playing out the five-year deal before hitting free agency again this winter.

The Mets continue to try to work out a similar provision in this case. Where the winding saga will go next is to be determined, but it’ll remain the offseason’s main storyline until Correa officially signs a contract somewhere.

Giants Place Tommy La Stella On Release Waivers

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The Giants have placed infielder Tommy La Stella on release waivers, per a team announcement. La Stella, who was designated for assignment late last month, will become a free agent upon clearing. That’s a foregone conclusion, as any team that claimed him would also need to claim the remaining $11.5MM on his contract. Once he’s a free agent, La Stella would only cost a new team the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the Major League roster, however. The Giants would remain on the hook for the remainder of that $11.5MM salary.

La Stella’s placement on release waivers puts an end to a three-year, $18.75MM deal that didn’t pan out at all in the manner the Giants had hoped. At the time of the contract, La Stella was a 31-year-old coming off a four-year platform in which he’d posted a hearty .284/.358/.441 batting line while showing plenty of defensive versatility and elite bat-to-ball skills. For a team like the Giants, that constructs rosters with a heavy focus on positional flexibility, adding La Stella as a viable option at several different spots on the diamond was an appealing move.

Injuries and poor performance, however, torpedoed any value the Giants might’ve hoped to get from the deal. La Stella posted a respectable but diminished .250/.308/.405 batting line in 2021 (93 wRC+) but missed half the season due to a tear in his hamstring. His 2022 season was interrupted by an Achilles injury, a stint on the Covid-related injured list and neck spasms. The extent to which the health troubles impacted La Stella’s performance can’t be known, but the end result was a combined .245/.297/.80 slash in 437 plate appearances with San Francisco.

La Stella’s strikeout rate remained one of the lowest in the game at 12.8%, but that was still considerably higher than the 7.3% strikeout rate he posted in 2020-21. Meanwhile, his walk rate dropped to 6.6% — a notable dip from the 8.6% he’d posted in the two preceding seasons (and the 9.4% mark he’d tallied in the aforementioned 2017-20 stretch).

Once La Stella clears waivers, he’ll add a left-handed bat to the free-agent market — a low-cost option that could be of interest to teams in search of infield help and/or left-handed bats. Teams like the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Tigers, Orioles and Red Sox are among some speculative candidates to take a league-minimum flier on a player with La Stella’s track record.

Yankees Appoint Brian Sabean Executive Advisor To Brian Cashman

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The Yankees announced today that Brian Sabean has been appointed executive advisor to senior vice president and general manager Brian Cashman.

This is a homecoming for Sabean, as he began his career in Major League Baseball with the Yankees. He was hired as a scout back in 1985, later earning other titles such as director of scouting and vice president of player development/scouting. He was with the organization as they drafted and signed the young players that would later form the core of the club that won four championships from 1996 to 2000. In relaying today’s news, Joel Sherman of The New York Post recalls a statement Cashman made about the teams of the ’90s. “The underrated heroes of the dynasty are Bill Livesey and Brian Sabean,” Cashman said.

However, Sabean was no longer with the Yankees when those trophies were lifted. He joined the Giants in 1993 as assistant to the general manager and vice president of scouting/player personnel. He would later be promoted to general manager in 1996. The Giants finished 68-94 in that year but went on to post winning records in each season from 1997 to 2004. They dipped below .500 for a few years but later returned to success in a big way, winning the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

After that third title, Sabean was given the new title of executive vice president of baseball operations and seemed to move away from the day-to-day business of running the club. Bobby Evans took over as the general manager and stayed in that role through the 2018 season. At that point, he was reassigned and Farhan Zaidi was hired as president of baseball operations. As those transitions were taking place, Sabean seemed to have moved into an advisory/scouting role.

The Giants released a statement about Sabean’s hiring to reporters, with Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area among those to relay it on Twitter. “The San Francisco Giants would like to extend its deepest gratitude to Brian Sabean for his enormous contributions to our organization and wish him the best of luck in his new position with the New York Yankees.” The statement goes on to list the club’s aforementioned accomplishments during his tenure, before finishing thusly: “We truly believe he’s a Hall of Fame worthy executive in every sense of the word and wish him, his wife Amanda, and his entire family nothing but the best in the future. He will always be a Forever Giant.”

In the past few years, he has been connected to front office jobs with the Marlins and Mets that didn’t come to fruition, but he will now return to where his career began and rejoin the Yankees.

Farhan Zaidi: “Unlikely” That Giants Can Circle Back To Carlos Correa Deal

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi addressed reporters (including ESPN and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) for the first time since the team’s $350MM deal with Carlos Correa fell through due to concerns raised in the physical. Correa has since agreed to a $315MM deal with the Mets, but they too are concerned by the player’s physical and that signing has not been made official.

It’s been quiet since reports emerged on Christmas Eve that the Mets had concerns over his physical, with the last report stating the teams were working through things and a deal with New York still appeared “likely”. That’s not stopped a few other teams checking in on the situation, and Zaidi confirmed that the Giants have also checked in with Correa’s agent Scott Boras.

“We’ve had some conversations. Since then, obviously, you know, we’ve been in touch with Boras on other players as well. But our understanding and, as it’s been reported, they’re focused on a deal elsewhere at this point. So I think chances of a deal with us at this point are pretty unlikely based on their position,” Zaidi said.

Correa’s deal with San Francisco falling through shocked the baseball world. The Giants had scheduled a press conference to introduce their new star, but postponed that to further investigate Correa’s physical. That set off a chain of events that came together quickly, and within 24 hours Correa had agreed to a deal with the Mets. Zaidi confirmed that the Giants and Correa’s camp had different views on the medical review, but said they maintain a strong relationship with Boras.

“I was on the phone with Scott Boras on the Monday that we did Carlos’ physical right when his plane landed in San Francisco at 5 p.m., and those conversations continued from that point, so any suggestion that this was an 11th-hour thing is just not accurate. As soon as we had information, we shared it. We have a good working relationship with Scott Boras and his agency.”

The off-season has surely been a frustrating one for the Giants organization. They came into the winter in search of a new face of the franchise, and make a strong push to sign top free agent Aaron Judge. The reigning AL MVP would turn them down to re-sign with the Yankees on a nine-year, $360MM deal. They quickly pivoted to Correa, and just six days after news broke that Judge had agreed to return to New York, reports emerged that the Giants and Correa were in agreement on a 13-year deal.

The team has still been active this winter, adding Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea to their rotation, Taylor Rogers to the bullpen and Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger to the outfield. San Francisco certainly has a stronger roster as a result of those moves, but they do lack the superstar they coveted coming into the off-season, and the free agent market no longer has any stars.

“One of the unfortunate aspects of the offseason is there’s been — and maybe this is inevitable given the players — a lot of attention paid to players that we wound up not signing rather than the players that we have signed,” Zaidi said.

One added layer to the Correa saga is what it means for long-time Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford. He’s entering the final year of his contract, and is owed $16MM in 2023. A Correa signing would have likely meant that Crawford moved to third-base, but it seems with the Correa deal off he’ll be manning short in his 13th season in San Francisco.

“I’m sure it was a frustrating and confusing period for him, but I also said we had to explore every opportunity to improve this team, including the group of shortstops that were out there, All-Star-caliber players that we all felt would really improve our team. I think Brandon was aware that adding one of these players was a possibility. It didn’t work out and he’s our shortstop now and we want and expect to be a playoff team.”

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Some teams don’t publicly announce contract terms, or in some cases, even if a manager or a top front office executive (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, or whatever title is given to the lead decision-maker) has been given an extension whatsoever.  As a result, this list of the managers and executives entering the final years of their contracts is somewhat unofficial, as it wouldn’t be surprising if at least a few names on this list are indeed locked up beyond 2023 on pre-existing contracts or on extensions that have yet to be publicly announced.

Naturally, job security goes beyond just the terms of a contract.  One wouldn’t have imagined that the Rangers’ Jon Daniels or the Royals’ Dayton Moore were necessarily on thin ice heading into the 2022 season, yet the two longtime front office bosses were fired before the season was even over, as both Texas and Kansas City underachieved.  Likewise, former Astros GM James Click seemed like a sure bet for a long-term deal given Houston’s success, and yet due to some internal discord with owner Jim Crane, Click ended up leaving after the Astros offered him only (what seemed like a token of a) one-year extension.

The addition of the extra wild card spot could put even more pressure on teams to win, especially since the Phillies’ run from sixth seed to NL champions underlined what can happen if a club can just get into the postseason bracket.  In addition, some of the names on this list face uncertainty due to potential changes in team ownership — and as the Astros showed, no amount of on-field success can help if an owner simply wants someone new in the baseball ops department.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: Phil Nevin was moved from third base coach to interim manager when Joe Maddon was fired in June, and Nevin ended up leading the Angels to an underwhelming 46-60 record in his first stint as a big league skipper.  Despite the lack of success, the Halos removed the interim tag by signing Nevin to a one-year deal, giving him a longer (but not much longer) opportunity to see what he can do as the team’s manager.  The Angels organization as a whole is in a fluid state given that a new owner might be running the club by Opening Day or soon thereafter, and yet in what looks to be Arte Moreno’s last offseason as the Halos’ owner, Anaheim has been pretty aggressive in adding roster pieces to try and find that elusive winning mix.  If Nevin can help get Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and company to the playoffs or even over the .500 mark, it will greatly help his case for a long-term contract under the new owner….or, possibly a managerial job elsewhere if the new owner still wants to brings in their own personnel.

Astros: Hired in rather abrupt fashion in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, Dusty Baker’s three seasons in Houston have resulted in two World Series appearances, and the 2022 championship represented Baker’s first ring as a manager in 25 seasons in the dugout.  Baker’s initial contract (one year and a club option) has been followed up by successive one-year deals that weren’t finalized until after the Astros’ playoff runs were over, but Crane has repeatedly stated that he prefers to avoid distractions by waiting until after the season to work out contractual matters.  Baker’s age (74 in June) might be another reason why Crane has resisted giving Baker a longer-term deal, so another extension might not come for Baker until October or November.  With the Click situation lingering as an odd footnote to Houston’s championship season, Baker at least seems to have more sway with ownership than the former GM did, yet the Astros might have to keep winning to ensure that Baker is back in 2024.

Athletics: GM David Forst has been a member of Oakland’s front office since 2000, and he’ll now finally take over as the top job in the baseball operations department after Billy Beane moved to an advisory role with the club.  As per the terms of Forst’s last extension, he is signed through the 2023 season, and there wasn’t any word of a new contract attached to the Athletics’ announcement of Forst’s new role.  As the A’s continue to search for a new ballpark in Oakland or a potential move to a new city, there’s a bit of flux involved throughout the organization, yet it would certainly seem like the A’s will continue their tradition of front-office continuity by giving Forst a new deal at some point.  Forst is currently shepherding the Athletics through their latest rebuild, but if an extension wasn’t worked out, he would likely quickly find work elsewhere given how many teams have tried to poach him for other front office vacancies in recent years.

Brewers: Craig Counsell has been managing the Brew Crew since 2015, and 2023 is the final year of the skipper’s current four-year contract.  Milwaukee is an impressive 615-555 under Counsell’s watch, with two NL Central titles, four postseason appearances and a trip to the NLCS in 2018.  However, 2018 was also the last time the Brewers won a playoff series, and the team’s postseason streak ended in 2022 despite a respectable 86-76 record.  It would still seem like Counsell would be a strong candidate to receive an extension, though there’s some uncertainty throughout the organization in the wake of David Stearns’ rather surprising decision to step down as the team’s president of baseball operations.  General manager Matt Arnold is now in charge of the front office, though past reports suggested that Arnold’s own deal only lasts through the 2023 season.  Brewers owner Mark Attanasio could have some inclination to pursue a new direction if the Brewers struggled next year, and if Arnold isn’t seen as a long-term answer, Attanasio could look for a new front office boss as Stearns’ true replacement, and a new PBO or GM might also want to make their own managerial hire.

Cardinals: 2023 is the final season of the three-year extension John Mozeliak signed in November 2019.  A member of the Cardinals organization since 1995 and the head of their front office since the 2007-08 offseason, Mozeliak has been working under the president of baseball operations title since 2017.  Michael Girsch was promoted to the GM role at that same time, and is signed through at least 2024 as per the terms of an extension signed back in October.  With Girsch’s deal in mind, it would seem like Mozeliak will also be extended again, as the Cardinals have enjoyed 15 straight winning seasons and have reached the postseason in each of the last four years.  This being said, the bar for success is always high in St. Louis, and the team hasn’t won a playoff series since 2019 and hasn’t reached the World Series since 2013.

Diamondbacks: Executive VP/general manager Mike Hazen was already under contract through 2020 when he signed a new extension in September 2019, and the length of that new deal wasn’t released.  As such, it is possible 2023 might be Hazen’s final year under contract.  Manager Torey Lovullo’s status is more public, as the D’Backs exercised their club option on his services for 2023.  Since the Diamondbacks haven’t had a winning season since 2019 and haven’t made the postseason since 2017 (Hazen and Lovullo’s first year in Arizona), ownership might be waiting to see if any significant progress is made before exploring an extension for either its GM or manager.

Dodgers: Andrew Friedman came to Los Angeles on a five-year, $35MM contract that covered the 2014-19 seasons, and he then signed a new extension of an unknown length after the 2019 campaign was complete.  If that extension was only a four-year pact, 2023 would be Friedman’s final season as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, barring another new deal.  Despite the relative lack of postseason success in regards to the Dodgers’ dominance of the regular season, Friedman’s tenure has still delivered one World Series title, and it would seem like he has as much job security as anyone in baseball.

Giants: Farhan Zaidi is entering the final season of his five-year contract as San Francisco’s president of baseball operations.  Through two years of rebuilding (and competitive baseball) and then a 107-win season in 2021, it seemed like the Giants had taken a fast track to success, but things took a step backwards with an 81-81 record last year.  Heading into with the winter with an aggressive mandate to spend and attract high-profile talent to the Bay Area, the Giants have added some notable players but fallen short on two superstars — Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees, while Carlos Correa had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact with the Giants before the team delayed finalizing the deal due to concerns stemming from Correa’s physical.  Correa immediately pivoted to the Mets on a 12-year, $315MM contract, and since the Mets reportedly have their own issues with Correa’s lower right leg and ankle, the situation has become less of a fiasco for the Giants than it initially appeared.  Team chairman Greg Johnson gave Zaidi a vote of confidence heading into the offseason, but it remains to be seen if ownership is satisfied with the aftermath of this very unusual winter.

Guardians: There hasn’t yet been any public word on the details of Terry Francona’s extension, but the reigning AL Manager Of The Year has already been confirmed as returning for the 2023 campaign.  Given Francona’s health issues, 2023 could be his final season in the dugout, but the Guardians’ front office and team owner Paul Dolan have both intimated that Francona can remain as manager as long as he is willing and able.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti also doesn’t seem to be in any danger, though the longtime Cleveland exec’s contract terms aren’t known.

Marlins: Kim Ng has a 137-188 record over her first two seasons as Miami’s general manager, though as usual with the Marlins, it isn’t clear how much of those struggles are the GM’s fault.  Derek Jeter’s departure as CEO last March left an upper management void within the organization, and while the Marlins have slightly expanded payroll in Ng’s tenure, they are still among the game’s lower spenders.  It could be argued that with Jeter and ex-manager Don Mattingly gone, Ng now freer rein to turn the Marlins in her own direction, beginning with the hiring of Skip Schumaker as the club’s new bench boss.  The terms of Ng’s contract weren’t publicly revealed, so 2023 could conceivably be the final guaranteed year of her deal — if so, some progress might be necessary to keep owner Bruce Sherman from starting yet another rebuild.

Nationals: President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are both only signed through the 2023 season, as the Nationals exercised club options on both men back in July.  Wins and losses aren’t really a factor for the rebuilding Nats, but the ongoing search for a new owner certainly is, though the most recent reports haven’t given any clear timeline on when a sale might be finalized.  As a result, Rizzo and Martinez might each be facing a lame-duck season, with their fates unknown until a new owner is in place.

Orioles: The contract terms of GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde haven’t been publicized, though Hyde’s newest extension runs through at least the 2023 season.  Since the O’s were so quiet about extending Hyde, it wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that Elias was also extended at some point, continuing a tenure that began with the 2018-19 offseason.  Regardless of the details, it certainly doesn’t seem like either Elias or Hyde are going anywhere, considering how the Orioles had a winning record (83-79) in 2022 and seem ready to put their rebuild firmly in the rearview mirror.

Pirates: Speaking of rebuilds, the Pirates can only hope for a Baltimore-esque breakout next year.  Ben Cherington is entering the fourth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, on a contract of an unknown length.  Manager Derek Shelton is concretely operating on a four-year pact, so 2023 will be his last guaranteed season, though Cherington has spoken glowingly about Shelton’s work in leading the young Bucs through the hard times of the rebuild period.  Extensions would keep Shelton and perhaps Cherington from being lame ducks in 2023, though there doesn’t seem to be any sense that either is in danger of being let go.

Rangers: Chris Young became the Rangers’ GM in December 2020, and he unexpectedly found himself in charge of the front office entirely once Daniels was fired in August.  The terms of Young’s initial contract weren’t known, and it doesn’t seem as though his surprise promotion came with any extra years added onto his deal.  The Rangers’ spending spree over the last two offseasons has left no doubt that ownership wants to win now, so Young’s own job could be in jeopardy if Texas struggles (or perhaps has a slow start) in 2023.  That said, Young’s past history as a player under manager Bruce Bochy surely played a role in convincing Bochy to become the Rangers’ new skipper, so Young has started to make his influence known in the Texas front office.

Reds: David Bell’s two-year contract is up after the 2023 season, which would be Bell’s fifth season as the Reds’ manager.  Cincinnati promoted GM Nick Krall as the leader of the baseball ops department following the 2020 season, and Krall has since been tasked with cutting payroll and setting the Reds on a rebuilding path.  Krall’s contract length isn’t publicly known, so 2023 probably isn’t a make-or-break season for Krall to help his job security, unless the team absolutely craters and the development of the Reds’ younger players hits a roadblock.  The same could be true of Bell, unless the front office feels a new voice is needed in the dugout to continue the progress.

Red Sox: The terms of Chaim Bloom’s contract as Boston’s chief baseball officer aren’t publicly known, though 2023 will be Bloom’s fourth season.  This is a notable threshold considering Bloom’s predecessors in leading the Red Sox front office — Cherington didn’t last four full seasons, while Dave Dombrowski spent slightly over four years on the job, from August 2015 to September 2019.  Those two executives led the Sox to World Series titles in those brief tenures, while under Bloom, the Red Sox have a pair of last-place finishes sandwiched around a berth in the 2021 ALCS.  Assuming ownership is still as impatient to win, Bloom might need the Sox to take a big step up in 2023 in order to keep his job.

Rockies: Bud Black has only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal, yet seems to be operating on what The Athletic’s Nick Groke reported as “a rolling year-to-year contract.”  Even considering how the Rockies traditionally operate on a system of loyalty and continuity, one would imagine that a fifth straight losing season might be enough to convince the team to pursue a new manager.

Royals: Similar to the Rangers’ situation with Young, Kansas City GM J.J. Picollo found himself atop the Royals’ baseball ops pyramid when Moore was fired in September, with no word of a contract extension attached to this change in responsibility.  The difference is that Picollo has had a much longer tenure in K.C. (having worked in the front office since 2006 under Moore’s leadership), and while owner John Sherman is undoubtedly eager to start winning, he hasn’t invested the hundreds of millions that the Rangers’ owners have in their struggling club.  Immediate success might not be expected in Picollo’s first year, but his chances of a longer deal might hinge on whether or not the Royals’ younger players start developing at a better rate, or if new manager Matt Quatraro can get more out of the young club.

Twins: The 2022 season completed the guaranteed portion of Rocco Baldelli’s initial contract with the Twins, which was a four-year deal with multiple club options attached.  Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey stated in September that Baldelli would be back next season, so at the very least, the Twins have exercised their option on Baldelli for 2023.  For what it’s worth, Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both under contract through 2024, and it is possible Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli might all be in hot water if the Twins can’t turn things around this coming season.  Minnesota followed up AL Central titles in both 2019 and 2020 with two losing seasons, and another sub-.500 campaign might make Baldelli the first one out the door, given his lesser contractual control.

White Sox: Executive VP Ken Williams (1997) and general manager Rick Hahn (2002) are each long-time members of Chicago’s front office, and have been in their current positions since October 2012.  Since the White Sox don’t publicize executive contracts, not much is known about Williams or Hahn’s status, other than that their last extensions came during the 2017 season.  It’s fair to guess that both might have received new deals since that time, but in any case, it may be a moot point given how owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t quick to make changes in the front office.  The hope is that new manager Pedro Grifol can succeed where Tony La Russa didn’t, and there hasn’t been any sense that Williams or Hahn might be on the hot seat, though that could possibly change if a White Sox team built to win now stumbles again.

Giants Designate Tommy La Stella For Assignment

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The Giants have designated infielder Tommy La Stella for assignment, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The move opens a roster spot for reliever Taylor Rogers.

La Stella, 34 in January, had an up-and-down career before coming to the Giants. After a couple of subpar seasons with the Braves and Cubs in 2014 and 2015, he seemed to find a good groove after that. Still with the Cubs in 2016 and 2017, he walked in 11.9% of his plate appearances and produced an overall batting line of .278/.372/.436. That production was 16% above league average, as evidenced by his 116 wRC+.

He had a swoon in 2018, as he hit just a single home run in 123 games and his walk rate dipped to 8.9%, leading to a batting line of .266/.340/.331 and a wRC+ of 87. However, he seemed to take a big step forward in 2019, hitting 16 home runs, more than his total over the previous five seasons. His walk rate dipped again but he only struck out in 8.7% of his plate appearances. 2019 was the “juiced ball” season, but he was still well above average at the plate. His .295/.346/.486 amounted to a wRC+ of 119, indicating he was 19% better than average that year, with wRC+ controlling for the offensive environment around the league.

In the shortened 2020 campaign, he added another five home runs and dropped his strikeout rate even farther to just 5.3%. He parlayed that into a three-year, $18.75MM deal with the Giants going into 2021. Unfortunately, La Stella’s seesaw career has been pointing straight down since that deal was signed. He made multiple trips to the injured list in 2021, getting into 76 games and hitting just .250/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 93. He underwent achilles surgery in October, which was originally reported as occurring on his left achilles but was reported almost a year later to have been on both of them, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.

In 2022, things got worse, as he continued to make frequent trips to the IL. He only played 60 games in the most recent season and took the field for just 76 innings on the year. When in the lineup, he produced a slash line of just .239/.282/.350 for a wRC+ of 78. Though there’s still another year left on his contract, it seems the Giants have decided it’s time to move on.

La Stella’s deal was heavily backloaded, as he made just $2MM in 2021, $5.25MM this year and is set for a salary of $11.5MM next year. The Giants will now have one week to trade La Stella or pass him through waivers, though a trade will be difficult to accomplish. Given the past two years have seen him struggle both in terms of health and performance, there will be little appetite from other teams to take on that $11.5MM salary. On the defensive side of things, La Stella has previously been able to serve as a utility player, splitting his time between second, third and first base. However, he hasn’t been rated as especially strong at any of them and barely donned a glove in 2022.

Assuming he clears waivers, he has more than five years of MLB service time, which gives him the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while retaining that salary. At that point, any club in the league could sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the Giants pay.

Giants, Taylor Rogers Agree To Three-Year Deal

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December 28: The Giants have officially announced the signing of Rogers. He’ll make $9MM in 2023 followed by $12MM salaries in the next two seasons, reports Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.

December 23: The Giants and reliever Taylor Rogers are in agreement on a three-year, $33MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal for the Frontline client is pending a physical.

Rogers, 32, will now join his twin brother in the San Francisco bullpen, as right-hander Tyler Rogers is already on the club. The left-handed Taylor was one of the top relievers available in free agency this offseason and certainly one of the best southpaws. He came into the open market on a bit of a down note, as he posted a combined 4.76 ERA between the Padres and Brewers, having switched jerseys as part of the much-maligned Josh Hader trade.

Taylor Rogers | Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsHowever, it wasn’t quite as bad as that ERA might seem. His 30.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate were both much better than average and roughly in line with his career marks. His 42.4% ground ball rate was below league average but only by half a percentage point. A 63.5% strand rate may have been a culprit, as that’s roughly 10% below his 74.1% career norm and the 72.6% league average in 2022.

Advanced metrics were much more fond of Rogers in 2022, as he posted a 3.31 FIP, 3.26 xFIP and 2.64 SIERA. Those numbers are also more in line with his pre-2022 form. With the Twins from 2016 to 2021, he made 319 appearances with a 3.15 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate, with all of those numbers being a few ticks better than the league average hurler. Though the 4.76 ERA in 2022 didn’t look great, he has a lengthy track record as being a very effective big league reliever and that figure likely wasn’t deserved. MLBTR predicted he could secure a three-year, $30MM deal and he has come out ahead of that.

For the Giants, the signing of Rogers makes plenty of sense given their dearth of reliable southpaw relievers. Prior to this agreement, Scott Alexander and Sam Long were the only lefties projected to be in the bullpen. Alexander has had great results but is frequently injured, not reaching 20 MLB innings since 2018, and will be turning 34 next season. Long has just 40 games in the majors with a 4.55 ERA to show for it. Given those options, it makes plenty of sense that the club has targeted improvements in this area. Rogers should slot in behind closer Camilo Doval for some high-leverage work. For teams still looking for left-handed additions to their bullpen, the top options with Rogers off the board include Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Brad Hand.

Assuming an even distribution of the money in $11MM increments, Roster Resource now calculates the club’s payroll to just above $191MM and their competitive balance tax figure to be $208MM. That payroll is well beyond last year’s $155MM Opening Day number, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they have gone above $200MM in the past. It’s unknown how much they plan on spending this winter, but they still have lots of room before reaching the $233MM base threshold of the luxury tax.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Have “Raised Concerns” Over Carlos Correa’s Physical, Deal Still “Likely”

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Dec 26: Heyman reports that a few teams have “checked in” since the Mets showed concern in the physical. A situation akin to what happened in San Francisco just a week ago does not appear nigh though, as Heyman adds that talks between the Mets and Correa’s camp appear to have been more substantive than what occurred with the Giants in the aftermath of Correa’s physical there.

Dec 24, 2:51pm: According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN, a deal with the Mets is still “likely”, although he reports that the contract could be reworked considering the issue. While it’s not known what a reworked contract would look like, it could include altering the duration or financial guarantee of the contract, or rewording it to alter the amount of guaranteed money Correa makes should he miss a period of time due to the specific leg ailment which is causing concern. Rogers adds that there is not a timetable in place to resolve the matter.

10:56am: Carlos Correa’s physical with the Mets has “raised concerns”, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Per the report, the concern centers on Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg. Correa has agreed to a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets just days after a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants fell through over concerns over the physical.

While it’s jarring to hear given the events of the past week, it’s unclear yet what this means for the status of the deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the two parties are currently trying to work through the issue.

Mets owner Steve Cohen has already addressed the deal, telling Heyman earlier this week that “we needed one more thing, and this is it”. That’s particularly significant as, per The Athletic’s report, addressing the deal on the record could make it trickier to back out of the agreement, although there’s nothing to suggest that’s what the Mets are looking to do.

It’s been a fascinating turn of events in Correa’s free agency over the past week. Generally, reported agreements pending a physical have become official without a hitch, but Correa’s has now hit a snag on two separate occasions in the space of a week. Further, he’s one of the top free agents this winter and had agreed to deals worth in excess of $300MM. Correa had agreed to a long-term contract with the Giants on December 13, but that fell over on Monday after the Giants reportedly asked for more time to look into the medicals after finding something that gave them pause. However, agent Scott Boras quickly pivoted and went to the Mets, who quickly agreed to their own long-term deal for $35MM less than the original Giants agreement.

Boras sought to re-engage with the Twins as well after the Giants deal fell through. Per The Athletic’s report, they’d offered him a ten-year, $285MM deal but would have put a greater emphasis on a physical before that deal than the deal he signed with Minnesota earlier in 2022, given the long-term nature of the proposal. The report also adds that after Correa became available again, the Twins were unwilling to alter their initial proposal, and would have wanted to investigate the issues raised in the player’s physical with the Giants.

The Giants have been quiet on the matter. HIPAA laws restrict them from disclosing clear answers about the precise nature of the injury, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi did offer a statement: “While we are prohibited from disclosing confidential medical information, as Scott Boras stated publicly, there was a difference of opinion over the results of Carlos’ physical examination. We wish Carlos the best.”

The Correa camp has denied any cause for concern. Prior to undertaking his physical with the Mets, Boras said “there is nothing with him that is currently any sort of medical issue,” via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. He also added that the Giants were trying to use a “crystal ball” to try and predict Correa’s long term health (via Laura Albanese of Newsday).

Various reports have mentioned Correa’s right leg as the source of concern for both the Giants and Mets. Back in 2014, a teenage Correa fractured his right fibula and sustained minor ligament damage while playing in High-A in the Astros organization. That injury required arthroscopic surgery to repair. Correa has missed time for thumb, back and rib issues in the big leagues, but the right leg has never sent him to the injured list in his eight big league seasons.

It is worth remembering that only a few years ago the Mets did pull out of a deal with a player. In 2021, they drafted Kumar Rocker 10th overall and agreed to a $6MM signing bonus, before abandoning the deal after growing concerned by something they saw in the physical. Of course, backing out of a $6MM deal for draft pick and a $315MM contract for an All-Star are two different things, and Cohen’s comments certainly give confidence that a deal can still go through in some form.

It’s the latest twist in what has been a tumultuous time for Correa on the open market. He was the top free agent after departing the Astros last year, but after the long-term deal he sought didn’t eventuate he took a three-year, opt-out laden, $105.1MM deal with the Twins. After earning $35.1MM last season and putting up another strong season he opted out and hit the open market for the second-straight winter. The long-term mega deal he’d been seeking looked to have finally come to fruition when it was reported the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact. That deal fell through, but Correa was able to quickly land a $300MM+ deal with the Mets. While there’s every chance a deal with New York still goes through, there’s at least some doubt now hanging over it.

Giants, Ljay Newsome Agree to Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed reliever Ljay Newsome to a minor league contract, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The 26-year-old joins the third organization of his professional career.

Newsome entered the pro ranks in 2015, selected by the Mariners in the 26th round out of Chopticon High School in Maryland. He’d spend the next five seasons working his way through Seattle’s system, eventually joining the big league club’s alternate training site during the 2020 season and appearing in five games at the major league level, throwing 15 2/3 innings but giving up 20 hits and nine earned runs.

Nevertheless, the righty broke camp with the club during the 2021 season but would suffer a UCL injury in May, ending his year. The Mariners placed him on waivers following the season and he was subsequently picked up by the Cardinals. Newsome made his return midway through the 2022 season, but struggled across at Single-A and Triple-A levels of minor league ball, pitching to a combined 6 ERA in nine innings while giving up 11 hits, albeit with a solid 8:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Following the 2022 season, Newsome was released but it did not take him long to secure a new home for 2023. Despite a poor cumulative 6.53 ERA in 30 1/3 innings at the major league level, he has shown elite control, walking only four of the 137 MLB hitters he’s faced (2.9%). Additionally, during his last full minor league season, Newsome pitched to a 3.54 ERA in 155 innings across three levels with a sparkling 169:17 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Newsome has flashed elite control and is coming off a season of rehab. He’ll presumably start next year with the Giants’ highest affiliate in Sacramento but could put himself in the mix for an MLB bullpen job at some point. Newsome has three option years remaining, so if he cracks the 40-man roster at any point, the Giants can freely move him between San Francisco and Sacramento.

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